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DOE OSTI2021

Offline Arterial Signal Timing Optimization based on Virtual Phase Link Model - A Real-world Case Study

Conventional signal timing for arterial usually takes bottom-up approaches. Engineers optimize each individual intersection first and then coordinate them by adjusting the offsets. This work is based on the Virtual Phase-Link (VPL) model, a street traffic model designed for online traffic model predictive control, to obtain a top-down offline arterial signal timing. We Studied the Shallowford Rd. in Chattanooga, TN and found that the inconsistency in intersection capacities along the arterial could lead to some intersections becoming bottlenecks. Signal timing is a significant factor that affect the intersection capacities. We realized that the VPL-based model can guarantee the consistency in intersections along an arterial. We therefore adopted the VPL-based model and developed an offline signal timing optimization approach. The proposed timing derived from the VPL-based offline signal timing optimization showed very good results in simulation. The Chattanooga Department of Transportation adopted the optimized timing obtained from the proposed approach and gave positive feedbacks to the research team. We also collected field experiment data, which demonstrated overall energy reductions and speed improvements on some sections of the Shallowford Rd. arterial. We will continue the experiment when the COVID-19 pandemic impact subsides to have a more robust quantitative evaluation.

Wang, Qichao↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Multidimensional Operando Study Showing the Importance of the Electrode Macrostructure in Lithium Sulfur Batteries

Lithium sulfur batteries are one of the most promising next-generation energy storage technologies, because of their impressive theoretical energy density, low materials cost, and relative safety. However, incomplete understanding of their underlying operation mechanisms has hindered their further development and commercialization. In this work, to gain a better understanding of the operation mechanisms in the lithium sulfur battery, three macroscopically different (woven and nonwoven) and microscopically similar (made from the same carbon fibers) free-standing carbon felts are used as the conductive matrices to show how the macrostructure influences the redox reactions and the electrochemical performance. Additionally, an operando radiography and simultaneous in situ electrochemical impedance spectroscopy study are performed to highlight the differences of the carbon hosts and how they compare electrochemically in a lithium sulfur battery. The electrochemical results show that the carbon host with a more open structure results in increased capacity as well as a higher diffusion coefficient. The operando radiography shows that the open structures are more conducive to efficient redox reactivity in forming solid sulfur species, mostly in the form of elongated needlelike structures identified as β-S8, near the end of charge, which is corroborated by the impedance data. The data also reveal a “breathing” mechanism, where the polysulfides are pushed to the edges during discharge and pulled back during charge. Furthermore, it is also revealed that the “breathing” process is a limiting factor in the high rate performance. Overall, this study shows that there is a close relationship between the macrostructure of the carbon matrix and the electrochemical performance of the sulfur cathode.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

NASA NTRS2006

Time Relevance of Convective Weather Forecast for Air Traffic Automation

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is handling nearly 120,000 flights a day through its Air Traffic Management (ATM) system and air traffic congestion is expected to increse substantially over the next 20 years. Weather-induced impacts to throughput and efficiency are the leading cause of flight delays accounting for 70% of all delays with convective weather accounting for 60% of all weather related delays. To support the Next Generation Air Traffic System goal of operating at 3X current capacity in the NAS, ATC decision support tools are being developed to create advisories to assist controllers in all weather constraints. Initial development of these decision support tools did not integrate information regarding weather constraints such as thunderstorms and relied on an additional system to provide that information. Future Decision Support Tools should move towards an integrated system where weather constraints are factored into the advisory of a Decision Support Tool (DST). Several groups such at NASA-Ames, Lincoln Laboratories, and MITRE are integrating convective weather data with DSTs. A survey of current convective weather forecast and observation data show they span a wide range of temporal and spatial resolutions. Short range convective observations can be obtained every 5 mins with longer range forecasts out to several days updated every 6 hrs. Today, the short range forecasts of less than 2 hours have a temporal resolution of 5 mins. Beyond 2 hours, forecasts have much lower temporal. resolution of typically 1 hour. Spatial resolutions vary from 1km for short range to 40km for longer range forecasts. Improving the accuracy of long range convective forecasts is a major challenge. A report published by the National Research Council states improvements for convective forecasts for the 2 to 6 hour time frame will only be achieved for a limited set of convective phenomena in the next 5 to 10 years. Improved longer range forecasts will be probabilistic as opposed to the deterministic shorter range forecasts. Despite the known low level of confidence with respect to long range convective forecasts, these data are still useful to a DST routing algorithm. It is better to develop an aircraft route using the best information available than no information. The temporally coarse long range forecast data needs to be interpolated to be useful to a DST. A DST uses aircraft trajectory predictions that need to be evaluated for impacts by convective storms. Each time-step of a trajectory prediction n&s to be checked against weather data. For the case of coarse temporal data, there needs to be a method fill in weather data where there is none. Simply using the coarse weather data without any interpolation can result in DST routes that are impacted by regions of strong convection. Increasing the temporal resolution of these data can be achieved but result in a large dataset that may prove to be an operational challenge in transmission and loading by a DST. Currently, it takes about 7mins retrieve a 7mb RUC2 forecast file from NOAA at NASA-Ames Research Center. A prototype NCWF6 1 hour forecast is about 3mb in size. A Six hour NCWFG forecast with a 1hr forecast time-step will be about l8mb (6 x 3mb). A 6 hour NCWF6 forecast with a l5min forecast time-step will be about 7mb (24 x 3mb). Based on the time it takes to retrieve a 7mb RUC2 forecast, it will take approximately 70mins to retrieve a 6 hour NCWF forecast with 15min time steps. Until those issues are addressed, there is a need to develop an algorithm that interpolates between these temporally coarse long range forecasts. This paper describes a method of how to use low temporal resolution probabilistic weather forecasts in a DST. The beginning of this paper is a description of some convective weather forecast and observation products followed by an example of how weather data are used by a DST. The subsequent sections will describe probabilistic forecasts followed by a descrtion of a method to use low temporal resolution probabilistic weather forecasts by providing a relevance value to these data outside of their valid times.

Chan, William N.↗

NASA NTRS2024

Presound: UAV Diagnostic System Enabled by Vibration-Based Machine Learning

A low-weight, inexpensive small unmanned aerial system (sUAS) that takes off, performs a mission, lands, and safely stows and recharges itself has myriad future applications ranging from agricultural imaging to last-mile package delivery. Likewise, Urban Air Mobility (UAM) systems will enable people to take air taxis from point to point in cities, rapidly moving commuters long distances without concern for road traffic and congestion. Fully electric aviation systems will be cleaner and quieter than ground transport. Cities could eliminate cars and buses, and convert roads to higher capacity bike and pedestrian throughways. Yet, for sUAS as well as UAM, system reliability and assurance is a limiting factor to deploying affordable autonomous flight systems. For this bright future of aviation to be realized, aircraft must be able to autonomously and accurately self-diagnose health issues both before takeoff and during flight. The GreenSight PreSound system is designed to identify defects on aircraft through intelligent analysis of vibration. It accomplishes this by measuring structural vibrations induced by the vehicle’s own propellers, and analyzing that data using a machine learning model that determines whether a defect is present. The PreSound system is designed to require no human oversight, and to operate across a wide array of vehicles through re-training of the model for each target aircraft. PreSound has been developed and seen limited early success using data collected from the GreenSight Dreamer sUAS, a 5lb quadrotor vehicle designed for aerial imaging applications. The final detection model, trained on data with props spinning at 50% throttle, achieves excellent performance with over 99% average accuracy in detecting blade damage using a single FFT vector input. It demonstrates the ability to generalize to new types of blade damage, correctly classifying a different type of blade damage with 98% accuracy. Full test pulses were classified with 100% accuracy, and in live testing, all sets of data during blade movement were classified accurately with over 95% confidence. When trained on in-flight data, the same model achieves an average accuracy of 85% in distinguishing between undamaged and blade-damaged states in flight. The authors believe that these accuracies show significant potential of this approach to expand unmanned flight safety, with significant potential benefits in accelerating Advanced Aerial Mobility (AAM) and UAM aviation applications.

UAS↗

NASA NTRS2016

Behavioral, Brain Imaging and Genomic Measures to Predict Functional Outcomes Post - Bed Rest and Spaceflight

Astronauts experience sensorimotor disturbances during their initial exposure to microgravity and during the re-adaptation phase following a return to an Earth-gravitational environment. These alterations may disrupt crewmembers' ability to perform mission critical functional tasks requiring ambulation, manual control and gaze stability. Interestingly, astronauts who return from spaceflight show substantial differences in their abilities to readapt to a gravitational environment. The ability to predict the manner and degree to which individual astronauts would be affected would improve the effectiveness of countermeasure training programs designed to enhance sensorimotor adaptability. For such an approach to succeed, we must develop predictive measures of sensorimotor adaptability that will allow us to foresee, before actual spaceflight, which crewmembers are likely to experience the greatest challenges to their adaptive capacities. The goals of this project are to identify and characterize this set of predictive measures. Our approach includes: 1) behavioral tests to assess sensory bias and adaptability quantified using both strategic and plastic-adaptive responses; 2) imaging to determine individual brain morphological and functional features, using structural magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), diffusion tensor imaging, resting state functional connectivity MRI, and sensorimotor adaptation task-related functional brain activation; and 3) assessment of genotypic markers of genetic polymorphisms in the catechol-O-methyl transferase, dopamine receptor D2, and brain-derived neurotrophic factor genes and genetic polymorphisms of alpha2-adrenergic receptors that play a role in the neural pathways underlying sensorimotor adaptation. We anticipate that these predictive measures will be significantly correlated with individual differences in sensorimotor adaptability after long-duration spaceflight and exposure to an analog bed rest environment. We will be conducting a retrospective study, leveraging data already collected from relevant ongoing or completed bed rest and spaceflight studies. These data will be combined with predictor metrics that will be collected prospectively (as described for behavioral, brain imaging and genomic measures) from these returning subjects to build models for predicting post-mission (bed rest - non-astronauts or space flight - astronauts) adaptive capability as manifested in their outcome measures. To date we have completed a study on 15 normal subjects with all of the above measures. In this presentation we will discuss the optimized set of tests for predictive metrics to be used for evaluating post mission adaptive capability as manifested in their outcome measures. Comparisons of model performance will allow us to better design and implement sensorimotor adaptability training countermeasures against decrements in post-mission adaptive capability that are customized for each crewmember's sensory biases, adaptive capacity, brain structure and functional capacities, and genetic predispositions. The ability to customize adaptability training will allow more efficient use of crew time during training and will optimize training prescriptions for astronauts to ensure expected outcomes.

Mulavara, A. P.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Influence of extreme temperature conditions on CO 2 direct air capture using amino-acid solutions

Geological features play a pivotal role in determining the feasibility of deploying CO₂ direct air capture (DAC) technologies, primarily because they influence the availability of cost-effective energy sources, such as natural gas and geothermal energy, and also due to the potential for CO₂ sequestration. Many regions face challenges due to variable weather conditions including seasonal temperature fluctuations, high or low humidity, and sub-ambient temperatures. These extremes can reduce DAC performance or even lead to catastrophic events. Aqueous solvents considered for DAC systems are particularly vulnerable to seasonal variations in colder climates, where the solvent may underperform or freeze. It is therefore essential to investigate the CO₂ capture efficiency of aqueous solvents across a broad range of environmental temperatures, spanning sub-zero to hot conditions (>30 °C). In this study, DAC operation is examined using a high-flux solvent–air crossflow contactor under two major weather scenarios: (i) cold conditions below 0 °C and (ii) hot conditions above 30 °C. A parametric study is conducted to investigate the contactor performance regarding CO₂ removal efficiency, uptake capacity, and reaction kinetics versus temperature when the air velocity through the contactor exceeds 1 m/s. The efficacy of the contactor is systematically investigated using various anti-freeze amino-acid solvent formulations. A mass-transfer mechanistic model is developed to assess the process performance over a wide temperature range and propose scalable design guidelines. Machine learning is also employed to identify key parameters affecting the CO₂ capture efficiency. It is shown that air velocity and temperature are the primary factors influencing CO₂ uptake. Based on performance data obtained under subfreezing temperatures, a technoeconomic analysis is conducted to evaluate the feasibility of using aqueous solvents in seasonal cold regions. In conclusion, the findings of this study provide valuable insights into siting considerations for deploying solvent-based DAC, thereby contributing to the advancement of sustainable carbon removal solutions.

Air–liquid contactor↗

DOE OSTI2025

Radioisotope production at the Spallation Neutron Source: Design concept of isotope production target

Upon completion of the Second Target Station (STS) Project in the mid 2030s, the Spallation Neutron Source accelerator at Oak Ridge National Laboratory will deliver a 2.7 MW proton beam to the neutron production targets. In the post-STS phase, the accelerator will have a reserve beam power capacity of at least 100 kW beyond what the two neutron production targets will receive, which could potentially be ramped up to 300 kW. In this paper, a design concept for a radioisotope production target that could utilize 250 kW of the reserve beam power capacity is presented. The target consists of thorium discs encapsulated in 316L austenitic steel shells that are cooled by water. The estimated post-irradiation activity of Ac-225 and Ra-225, critical medical radioisotopes used in targeted alpha therapy cancer treatment, is calculated at the end of bombardment after a 14 day long irradiation time. Thermal and structural analyses are performed on the basis of calculated nuclear heating data. The technical feasibility of a high-power target under a 250-kW beam load with an extremely low duty factor of $3.5\cdot 10^{-6}$ is presented from thermal, structural and fatigue lifetime perspectives.

Lee, Yong Joong [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000298381723)↗

NASA NTRS1985

Human factors of intelligent computer aided display design

Design concepts for a decision support system being studied at NASA Langley as an aid to visual display unit (VDU) designers are described. Ideally, human factors should be taken into account by VDU designers. In reality, although the human factors database on VDUs is small, such systems must be constantly developed. Human factors are therefore a secondary consideration. An expert system will thus serve mainly in an advisory capacity. Functions can include facilitating the design process by shortening the time to generate and alter drawings, enhancing the capability of breaking design requirements down into simpler functions, and providing visual displays equivalent to the final product. The VDU system could also discriminate, and display the difference, between designer decisions and machine inferences. The system could also aid in analyzing the effects of designer choices on future options and in ennunciating when there are data available on a design selections.

Hunt, R. M.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Machine-Learning Assisted Identification of Accurate Battery Lifetime Models with Uncertainty

Reduced-order battery lifetime models, which consist of algebraic expressions for various aging modes, are widely utilized for extrapolating degradation trends from accelerated aging tests to real-world aging scenarios. Identifying models with high accuracy and low uncertainty is crucial for ensuring that model extrapolations are believable, however, it is difficult to compose expressions that accurately predict multivariate data trends; a review of cycling degradation models from literature reveals a wide variety of functional relationships. Here, a machine-learning assisted model identification method is utilized to fit degradation in a stand-out LFP-Gr aging data set, with uncertainty quantified by bootstrap resampling. The model identified in this work results in approximately half the mean absolute error of a human expert model. Models are validated by converting to a state-equation form and comparing predictions against cells aging under varying loads. Parameter uncertainty is carried forward into an energy storage system simulation to estimate the impact of aging model uncertainty on system lifetime. The new model identification method used here reduces life-prediction uncertainty by more than a factor of three (86% ± 5% relative capacity at 10 years for human-expert model, 88.5% ± 1.5% for machine-learning assisted model), empowering more confident estimates of energy storage system lifetime.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

NASA NTRS1981

Soil moisture applications of the heat capacity mapping mission

Results are presented of ground, aircraft and satellite investigations conducted to evaluate the potential of the Heat Capacity Mapping Mission (HCMM) to monitor soil moisture and the depth of shallow ground water. The investigations were carried out over eastern South Dakota to evaluate the relation between directly measured soil temperatures and water content at various stages of canopy development, aircraft thermal scanner measurements of apparent canopy temperature and the reliability of actual HCMM data. The results demonstrate the possibility of evaluating soil moisture on the basis of HCMM apparent canopy temperature and day-night soil temperature difference measurements. Limitations on the use of thermal data posed by environmental factors which influence energy balance interactions, including phase transformations, wind patterns, topographic variations and atmospheric constituents are pointed out.

Heilman, J. L.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Structural Health Monitoring of Microreactor Safety Systems Using Convolutional Neural Networks

Microreactors, a class of modular reactors with net power output of less than 20 MWth, have innovative applications in nuclear and nonnuclear industries due to their portability, reliability, resilience, and high capacity factors. In order to operate microreactors on a wider scale, it is essential to bring down maintenance life-cycle costs while ensuring the integrity of operating such systems. Autonomous operations in microreactors using augmented digital-twin (DT) technology can serve as a cost-effective solution by increasing awareness about the system’s health. Structural health monitoring (SHM) is a key component of nuclear DT frameworks. Artificial neural networks can be beneficial to detect degradation in the nuclear safety systems, such as piping equipment systems, by monitoring the sensor data obtained from the plant and its corresponding structures, systems and components. In this report, an SHM methodology is presented which uses convolutional neural networks to determine degraded locations and their corresponding degradation-severity levels at various locations of nuclear piping equipment systems. A simple pipe system, subjected to seismic loads, is selected to design the post-hazard SHM framework. The effectiveness of the proposed SHM methodology is demonstrated by obtaining high accuracy in detecting degraded locations as well as the severity levels.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

NASA NTRS1986

Spaceborne optical disk controller development

The current status and potential applications of an optical-disk buffer (ODB) memory system being developed by an interagency consortium including NASA and the USAF are reviewed. The design goals for the ODB include usable capacity 1 Tb, maximum data rate 1.6 Gb/s, read error rate less than 10 to the -12th, time to initial access less than 100 ms, and unlimited read/write cycles. Present efforts focus on a brassboard ODB which employs 12 14-inch magnetooptic disks and 24 nine-diode read/write heads. A typical space application of an optical disk mass memory system (ODMMS) is discussed: as communications buffer, temporary storage, and/or multiuser I/O buffer for data management on the Space Station Earth Observing System. Environmental, operational, system-architecture, and functional-separation factors; critical design issues; and standardization questions for spaceborne ODMMSs are examined in detail.

Shull, Thomas A.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Electro-Optical Design for Efficient Visual Communication

Visual communication, in the form of telephotography and television, for example, can be regarded as efficient only if the amount of information that it conveys about the scene to the observer approaches the maximum possible and the associated cost approaches the minimum possible. Elsewhere we have addressed the problem of assessing the end to end performance of visual communication systems in terms of their efficiency in this sense by integrating the critical limiting factors that constrain image gathering into classical communications theory. We use this approach to assess the electro-optical design of image gathering devices as a function of the f number and apodization of the objective lens and the aperture size and sampling geometry of the phot-detection mechanism. Results show that an image gathering device that is designed to optimize information capacity performs similarly to the human eye. For both, the performance approaches the maximum possible, in terms of the efficiency with which the acquired information can be transmitted as decorrelated data, and the fidelity, sharpness, and clearity with which fine detail can be restored.

Huck, Friedrich O.↗

NASA NTRS2012

On Shaft Data Acquisition System (OSDAS)

On Shaft Data Acquisition System (OSDAS) is a rugged, compact, multiple-channel data acquisition computer system that is designed to record data from instrumentation while operating under extreme rotational centrifugal or gravitational acceleration forces. This system, which was developed for the Heritage Fuel Air Turbine Test (HFATT) program, addresses the problem of recording multiple channels of high-sample-rate data on most any rotating test article by mounting the entire acquisition computer onboard with the turbine test article. With the limited availability of slip ring wires for power and communication, OSDAS utilizes its own resources to provide independent power and amplification for each instrument. Since OSDAS utilizes standard PC technology as well as shared code interfaces with the next-generation, real-time health monitoring system (SPARTAA Scalable Parallel Architecture for Real Time Analysis and Acquisition), this system could be expanded beyond its current capabilities, such as providing advanced health monitoring capabilities for the test article. High-conductor-count slip rings are expensive to purchase and maintain, yet only provide a limited number of conductors for routing instrumentation off the article and to a stationary data acquisition system. In addition to being limited to a small number of instruments, slip rings are prone to wear quickly, and introduce noise and other undesirable characteristics to the signal data. This led to the development of a system capable of recording high-density instrumentation, at high sample rates, on the test article itself, all while under extreme rotational stress. OSDAS is a fully functional PC-based system with 48 channels of 24-bit, high-sample-rate input channels, phase synchronized, with an onboard storage capacity of over 1/2-terabyte of solid-state storage. This recording system takes a novel approach to the problem of recording multiple channels of instrumentation, integrated with the test article itself, packaged in a compact/rugged form factor, consuming limited power, all while rotating at high turbine speeds.

Pedings, Marc↗

DOE OSTI2022

Cognitive Aging as a Human Factor: Effects of Age on Human Performance

Nuclear power plant (NPP) control room operators must make ongoing computations and decisions that maximize production and ensure safety, which places a high cognitive burden on the operators. How cognitions such as attention, visuospatial ability, and working memory interact with socio-technical systems to achieve optimal operations is well studied. However, there is an absence of research that examines how cognitive functioning within the NPP control room environment is moderated by developmental aging processes. This is of critical importance because different types of cognitive actions are known to develop and peak at different times across the adult life span, and it is becoming increasingly clear that there is no age at which all cognitive faculties operate at maximum capacity. Thus, given that NPPs are experiencing an aging workforce, it is vital to identify how mission critical cognitions change with age. This paper reviews implications of aging on reactor operators in the current and new fleet. We highlight lessons that can be learned from state-of-the-art human factors research that considers aging, lessons from the large cognitive aging literature, and lessons from aging workers in other industries that use sophisticated socio-technical systems, such as aviation. We also consider the important subject of aging effects versus expertise and present preliminary data that support the premise that age of operator is linked to effective and efficient operations but that this relationship may be moderated by level of operations expertise. In conclusion, we apply these lessons to future considerations for aging research in current nuclear operations and with the advent of advanced modernized control rooms.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2021

Utility-Scale Solar, 2021 Edition: Empirical Trends in Deployment, Technology, Cost, Performance, PPA Pricing, and Value in the United States [Slides]

Berkeley Lab’s “Utility-Scale Solar, 2021 Edition” provides an overview of key trends in the U.S. market, with a focus on 2020. Highlights of this year’s update include: A record of nearly 9.6 GWAC of new utility-scale PV capacity came online in 2020, bringing cumulative installed capacity to more than 38.7 GWAC across 43 states. 89% of all new utility-scale PV capacity added in 2020 uses single-axis tracking. Median installed project costs declined to $\$$1.4/WAC (or $\$$1.1/WDC) in 2020. Project-level capacity factors vary widely, from 9% to 36% (on an AC basis), with a sample median of 24%. The report explores drivers of this variation. Utility-scale PV’s LCOE fell to $\$$34/MWh in 2020 ($\$$28/MWh if factoring in the federal investment tax credit, or ITC). PPA prices have largely followed the decline in solar’s LCOE over time, but have stagnated more recently. Prices from a sample of recent contracts average just above $\$$20/MWh (levelized). In 2020, solar’s average market value (defined in the report to include only energy and capacity value) exceeded average wholesale prices in 12 of the 17 balancing authorities analyzed (including 4 of the 7 independent system operators across the United States). Adding battery storage is one way to increase the value of solar. Our public data file tracks metadata for more than 150 PV+battery hybrid projects that are already online or that have secured offtake arrangements. At the end of 2020, there were at least 460 GW of utility-scale solar power capacity within the interconnection queues across the nation, 160 GW of which include batteries. For more information, and to explore related interactive data visualizations, go to utilityscalesolar.lbl.gov.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1990

Study of wavelength division multiplexing as a means of increasing the number of channels in multimode fiber optic communication links

A number of optical communication lines are now in use at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) for the transmission of voice, computer data, and video signals. Presently, all of these channels utilize a single carrier wavelength centered near 1300 nm. The theoretical bandwidth of the fiber far exceeds the utilized capacity. Yet, practical considerations limit the usable bandwidth. The fibers have the capability of transmitting a multiplicity of signals simultaneously in each of two separate bands (1300 and 1550 nm). Thus, in principle, the number of transmission channels can be increased without installing new cable if some means of wavelength division multiplexing (WDM) can be utilized. The main goal of these experiments was to demonstrate that a factor of 2 increase in bandwidth utilization can share the same fiber in both a unidirectional configuration and a bidirectional mode of operation. Both signal and multimode fiber are installed at KSC. The great majority is multimode; therefore, this effort concentrated on multimode systems.

Bates, Harry↗

NASA NTRS2011

Trajectory-Based Complexity (TBX): A Modified Aircraft Count to Predict Sector Complexity During Trajectory-Based Operations

In this paper we introduce a new complexity metric to predict -in real-time- sector complexity for trajectory-based operations (TBO). TBO will be implemented in the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen). Trajectory-Based Complexity (TBX) is a modified aircraft count that can easily be computed and communicated in a TBO environment based upon predictions of aircraft and weather trajectories. TBX is scaled to aircraft count and represents an alternate and additional means to manage air traffic demand and capacity with more consideration of dynamic factors such as weather, aircraft equipage or predicted separation violations, as well as static factors such as sector size. We have developed and evaluated TBX in the Airspace Operations Laboratory (AOL) at the NASA Ames Research Center during human-in-the-loop studies of trajectory-based concepts since 2009. In this paper we will describe the TBX computation in detail and present the underlying algorithm. Next, we will describe the specific TBX used in an experiment at NASA's AOL. We will evaluate the performance of this metric using data collected during a controller-inthe- loop study on trajectory-based operations at different equipage levels. In this study controllers were prompted at regular intervals to rate their current workload on a numeric scale. When comparing this real-time workload rating to the TBX values predicted for these time periods we demonstrate that TBX is a better predictor of workload than aircraft count. Furthermore we demonstrate that TBX is well suited to be used for complexity management in TBO and can easily be adjusted to future operational concepts.

trajectories↗