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At least 253 records · Page 14

Are the 1986-1988 changes in solar free-oscillation frequency splitting significant?

The solar normal-mode splitting coefficients deduced from Big Bear Solar Observatory (BBSO) data differ between 1986 and 1988; inversions for equatorial rotation are slower at depth and faster near the surface in 1988 than in 1986. The significance of the change has been disputed. The data sets overlap for five splitting coefficients (a(j))super 5 sub j = 1 associated with 710 multiplets. On the assumption that rotation rate varies smoothly with radius, both data sets are satisfied by the same rotation model at all colatitudes except near 30-40 deg and near 70 deg (and at their southern hemisphere reflections 140-150 deg and 110 deg). The evidence for equatorial change is weak. Nonparametric tests show a significant offset in the magnitudes of a(1), a(2), and a(4), and of linear combinations sensitive to rotation at colatitudes of 60-80 deg (and 120 deg). Nonparametric tests show significant radial trends in the changes to a(2), a(4), and (less significantly) a(5). There is strong anticorrelation between a(2) and a(4), a(1) and a(3), and a(3) and a(5), suggesting that the estimates are not independent. Individual coefficients a(j) show more evidence for change than do 'physical' linear combinations, adding weight to this hypothesis. Some of the changes in splitting might be related to solar activity, which changed most near colatitude 70 deg from 1986 to 1988.

Gough, Douglas↗

Immune changes in humans concomitant with space flights of up to 10 days duration

The time relation of various classes of in-flight human physiological changes is illustrated. Certain problems, such as neurovestibular, fluid, and electrolyte imbalances tend to occur early in a flight, followed by stabilization at some microgravity equilibrium level. Cardiovascular dysfunctions and erythrocyte mass losses appear to follow a similar pattern, although the significant changes occur later in flight. Bone and calcium changes and radiation effects are thought to progressively worsen with time, whereas the time course of immune change is yet to be fully understood. Significant immunologic changes in cosmonauts and astronauts during and after space flight have been documented as have microbiological changes. Thus, space flight can be expected to effect a blunting of the human cellular immune mechanism concomitant with a relative increase in potentially pathogenic microorganisms. This combination would seem to increase the probability of infectious disease events in flight.

Taylor, Gerald R.↗

Interfacing remote sensing and geographic information systems for global environmental change research

Because changes in the Earth's environment have become major global issues, continuous, longterm scientific information is required to assess global problems such as deforestation, desertification, greenhouse effects and climate variations. Global change studies require understanding of interactions of complex processes regulating the Earth system. Space-based Earth observation is an essential element in global change research for documenting changes in Earth environment. It provides synoptic data for conceptual predictive modeling of future environmental change. This paper provides a brief overview of remote sensing technology from the perspective of global change research.

Lee, Jae K.↗

Remarkable long-term changes in the small Magellanic Cloud Wolf-Rayet system HD 5980

In this paper we report the remarkable changes which occured in the Small Magellanic Cloud W-R system HD5980 = AB5 between 1978 and 1991. Within this timescale, there has been a systematic enhancement (by factors of 2-10 depending on the line) in the equivalent widths of all emission lines, and a change in the relative strengths of N III, N IV, and N V lines. Currently, the W-R spectrum is more typical of a WN6 star than a WN3 or WN4, as it was originally classified. The terminal speed of the wind has diminished by approximately 600 km/s, while the system has brightened in the visual by 0.45 mag. The UV (1850 A) continuum changed by less than 0.13 mag. The change from WN3 or WN4 to WN6 is unprecedented. The system appears to be composed at least three stars: two WNs in mutual 19.266 day orbit and an O-type supergiant. We propose that the changes observed in HD 5980 are related to an increase in wind density of one (or both?) of the W-R components, where the brighter WN6 component will dominate the W-R spectrum after the change, and we speculate that this modification of the wind structure is driven by tidal interaction induced by a possible current periastron passage of the third component in the system.

Koenigsberger, G.↗

Mantle plume interaction with an endothermic phase change

High spatial resolution numerical simulations of mantle plumes impinging from below on the endothermic phase change at 660-km depth are used to investigate the effects of latent heat release on the plume-phase change interaction. Both axisymmetric and planar upflows are considered, and the strong temperature dependence of mantle viscosity is taken into account. For plume strengths considered, a Clapeyron slope of -4 MPa/K prevents plume penetration of the phase change. Plumes readily penetrate the phase change for a Clapeyron slope of -2 MPa/K and arrive in the upper mantle considerably hotter than if they had not traversed the phase change. For the same amount of thermal drive, i.e., the same excess basal temperature, axisymmetric plumes are hotter upon reaching the upper mantle than are planar upwellings. Heating of plumes by their passage through the spinel-perovskite endothermic phase change can have important consequences for the ability of the plume to thermally thin the lithosphere and cause melting and volcanism.

Schubert, Gerald↗

When Does Changing Representation Improve Problem-Solving Performance?

The aim of changing representation is the improvement of problem-solving efficiency. For the most widely studied family of methods of change of representation it is shown that the value of a single parameter, called the expulsion factor, is critical in determining (1) whether the change of representation will improve or degrade problem-solving efficiency and (2) whether the solutions produced using the change of representation will or will not be exponentially longer than the shortest solution. A method of computing the expansion factor for a given change of representation is sketched in general and described in detail for homomorphic changes of representation. The results are illustrated with homomorphic decompositions of the Towers of Hanoi problem.

Holte, Robert↗

NASA's Earth Observing System: The Transition from Climate Monitoring to Climate Change Prediction

Earth's 4.5 billion year history is a study in change. Natural geological forces have been rearranging the surface features and climatic conditions of our planet since its beginning. There is scientific evidence that some of these natural changes have not only led to mass extinctions of species (e.g., dinosaurs), but have also severely impacted human civilizations. For instance, there is evidence that a relatively sudden climate change caused a 300-year drought that contributed to the downfall of Akkadia, one of the most powerful empires in the Middle-East region around 2200 BC. More recently, the "little ice age" from 1200-1400 AD forced the Vikings to abandon Greenland when temperatures there dropped by about 1.5 C, rendering it too difficult to grow enough crops to sustain the population. Today, there is compelling scientific evidence that human activities have attained the magnitude of a geological force and are speeding up the rate of global change. For example, carbon dioxide levels have risen 30 percent since the industrial revolution and about 40 percent of the world's land surface has been transformed by humans. We don't understand the cause-and-effect relationships among Earth's land, ocean, and atmosphere well enough to predict what, if any, impacts these rapid changes will have on future climate conditions. We need to make many measurements all over the world, over a long period of time, in order to assemble the information needed to construct accurate computer models that will enable us to forecast climate change. In 1988, the Earth System Sciences Committee, sponsored by NASA, issued a report calling for an integrated, long-term strategy for measuring the vital signs of Earth's climate system. The report urged that the measurements must all be intimately coupled with focused process studies, they must facilitate development of Earth system models, and they must be stored in an information system that ensures open access to consistent, long-term data. This committee emphasized that the only feasible way to collect these consistent, long-term data is through the use of space-based Earth "remote sensors" (instruments that can measure from a distance things like temperature).

King, Michael D.↗

Climate Change and a Global City: An Assessment of the Metropolitan East Coast Region

The objective of the research is to derive an assessment of the potential climate change impacts on a global city - in this case the 31 county region that comprises the New York City metropolitan area. This study comprises one of the regional components that contribute to the ongoing U.S. National Assessment: The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change and is an application of state-of-the-art climate change science to a set of linked sectoral assessment analyses for the Metro East Coast (MEC) region. We illustrate how three interacting elements of global cities react and respond to climate variability and change with a broad conceptual model. These elements include: people (e.g., socio- demographic conditions), place (e.g., physical systems), and pulse (e.g., decision-making and economic activities). The model assumes that a comprehensive assessment of potential climate change can be derived from examining the impacts within each of these elements and at their intersections. Thus, the assessment attempts to determine the within-element and the inter-element effects. Five interacting sector studies representing the three intersecting elements are evaluated. They include the Coastal Zone, Infrastructure, Water Supply, Public Health, and Institutional Decision-making. Each study assesses potential climate change impacts on the sector and on the intersecting elements, through the analysis of the following parts: 1. Current conditions of sector in the region; 2. Lessons and evidence derived from past climate variability; 3. Scenario predictions affecting sector; potential impacts of scenario predictions; 4. Knowledge/information gaps and critical issues including identification of additional research questions, effectiveness of modeling efforts, equity of impacts, potential non-local interactions, and policy recommendations; and 5. Identification of coping strategies - i.e., resilience building, mitigation strategies, new technologies, education that affects decision-making, and better preparedness for contingencies.

Rosenzweig, Cynthia↗

Elevation Change of the Southern Greenland Ice Sheet from Satellite Radar Altimeter Data

Long-term changes in the thickness of the polar ice sheets are important indicators of climate change. Understanding the contributions to the global water mass balance from the accumulation or ablation of grounded ice in Greenland and Antarctica is considered crucial for determining the source of the about 2 mm/yr sea-level rise in the last century. Though the Antarctic ice sheet is much larger than its northern counterpart, the Greenland ice sheet is more likely to undergo dramatic changes in response to a warming trend. This can be attributed to the warmer Greenland climate, as well as a potential for amplification of a global warming trend in the polar regions of the Northern Hemisphere. In collaboration with Drs. Curt Davis and Craig Kluever of the University of Missouri, we are using data from satellite radar altimeters to measure changes in the elevation of the Southern Greenland ice sheet from 1978 to the present. Difficulties with systematic altimeter measurement errors, particularly in intersatellite comparisons, beset earlier studies of the Greenland ice sheet thickness. We use altimeter data collected contemporaneously over the global ocean to establish a reference for correcting ice-sheet data. In addition, the waveform data from the ice-sheet radar returns are reprocessed to better determine the range from the satellite to the ice surface. At JPL, we are focusing our efforts principally on the reduction of orbit errors and range biases in the measurement systems on the various altimeter missions. Our approach emphasizes global characterization and reduction of the long-period orbit errors and range biases using altimeter data from NASA's Ocean Pathfinder program. Along-track sea-height residuals are sequentially filtered and backwards smoothed, and the radial orbit errors are modeled as sinusoids with a wavelength equal to one revolution of the satellite. The amplitudes of the sinusoids are treated as exponentially-correlated noise processes with a time-constant of six days. Measurement errors (e.g., altimeter range bias) are simultaneously recovered as constant parameters. The corrections derived from the global ocean analysis are then applied over the Greenland ice sheet. The orbit error and measurement bias corrections for different missions are developed in a single framework to enable robust linkage of ice-sheet measurements from 1978 to the present. In 1998, we completed our re-evaluation of the 1978 Seasat and 1985-1989 Geosat Exact Repeat Mission data. The estimates of ice thickness over Southern Greenland (south of 72N and above 2000 m) from 1978 to 1988 show large regional variations (+/-18 cm/yr), but yield an overall rate of +1.5 +/- 0.5 cm/yr (one standard error). Accounting for systematic errors, the estimate may not be significantly different from the null growth rate. The average elevation change from 1978 to 1988 is too small to assess whether the Greenland ice sheet is undergoing a long-term change.

Haines, Bruce J.↗

Unexprected Changes in Soil Phosphorus Dynamics Following Tropical Deforestation to Cattle Pasture

Phosphorus (P) is widely believed to limit plant growth and organic matter storage in a large fraction of the world's lowland tropical rainforests. We investigated how the most common land use change in such forests, conversion to cattle pasture, affects soil P fractions along forest to pasture chronosequences in the central Brazilian Amazon and in southwestern Costa Rica. Our sites represent a broad range in rainfall, soil type, management strategies, and total soil P (45.2 - 1228.0 microng P / g soil), yet we found some unexpected and at times strikingly similar changes in soil P in all sites. In the Brazilian sites, where rainfall is relatively low and pasture management is more intense than in the Costa Rican sites, significant losses in total soil P and soil organic carbon (SOC) were seen with pasture age on both fine-textured oxisol and highly sandy entisol soils. However, P losses were largely from occluded, inorganic soil P fractions, while organic forms of soil P remained constant or increased with pasture age, despite the declines in SOC. In Costa Rica, SOC remained constant across the oxisol sites and increased from forest to pasture on the mollisols, while total soil P increased with pasture age in both sequences. The increases in total soil P were largely due to changes in organic P; occluded soil P increased only slightly in the mollisols, and remained unchanged in the older oxisols. We suggest that changes in the composition and/or the primary limiting resources of the soil microbial community may drive the changes in organic P. We also present a new conceptual model for changes in soil P following deforestation to cattle pasture.

Townsend, Alan R.↗

Determination of Interannual to Decadal Changes in Ice Sheet Mass Balance from Satellite Altimetry

A major uncertainty in predicting sea level rise is the sensitivity of ice sheet mass balance to climate change, as well as the uncertainty in present mass balance. Since the annual water exchange is about 8 mm of global sea level equivalent, the +/- 25% uncertainty in current mass balance corresponds to +/- 2 mm/yr in sea level change. Furthermore, estimates of the sensitivity of the mass balance to temperature change range from perhaps as much as - 10% to + 10% per K. Although the overall ice mass balance and seasonal and inter-annual variations can be derived from time-series of ice surface elevations from satellite altimetry, satellite radar altimeters have been limited in spatial coverage and elevation accuracy. Nevertheless, new data analysis shows mixed patterns of ice elevation increases and decreases that are significant in terms of regional-scale mass balances. In addition, observed seasonal and interannual variations in elevation demonstrate the potential for relating the variability in mass balance to changes in precipitation, temperature, and melting. From 2001, NASA's ICESat laser altimeter mission will provide significantly better elevation accuracy and spatial coverage to 86 deg latitude and to the margins of the ice sheets. During 3 to 5 years of ICESat-1 operation, an estimate of the overall ice sheet mass balance and sea level contribution will be obtained. The importance of continued ice monitoring after the first ICESat is illustrated by the variability in the area of Greenland surface melt observed over 17-years and its correlation with temperature. In addition, measurement of ice sheet changes, along with measurements of sea level change by a series of ocean altimeters, should enable direct detection of ice level and global sea level correlations.

Zwally, H. Jay↗

Climate Change and Expected Impacts on the Global Water Cycle

How the elements of the global hydrologic cycle may respond to climate change is reviewed, first from a discussion of the physical sensitivity of these elements to changes in temperature, and then from a comparison of observations of hydrologic changes over the past 100 million years. Observations of current changes in the hydrologic cycle are then compared with projected future changes given the prospect of global warming. It is shown that some of the projections come close to matching the estimated hydrologic changes that occurred long ago when the earth was very warm.

Rind, David↗

Changes in the X-Ray Emission from the Magnetar Candidate 1E 2259+586 During its 2002 Outburst

An outburst of more than 80 individual bursts, similar to those seen from Soft Gamma Repeaters (SGRs), was detected from the anomalous X-ray pulsar (AXP) 1E 2259+586 in 2002 June. Coincident with this burst activity were gross changes in the pulsed flux, persistent flux, energy spectrum, pulse profile, and spin-down of the underlying X-ray source. We present Rossi X-Ray Timing Explorer and X-Ray Multi-Mirror Mission observations of 1E 2259+586 that show the evolution of the aforementioned source parameters during and following this episode and identify recovery timescales for each. Specifically, we observe an X-ray flux increase (pulsed and phase-averaged) by more than an order of magnitude having two distinct components. The first component is linked to the burst activity and decays within approx. 2 days, during which the energy spectrum is considerably harder than during the quiescent state of the source. The second component decays over the year following the glitch according to a power law in time with an exponent -0.22 +/- 0.01. The pulsed fraction decreased initially to approx. 15% rms but recovered rapidly to the preoutburst level of approx. 23% within the first 3 days. The pulse profile changed significantly during the outburst and recovered almost fully within 2 months of the outburst. A glitch of size Delta(sib (nu)max) = (4.24 +/- 0.11) x 10(exp -6) was observed in 1E 2259+586, which preceded the observed burst activity. The glitch could not be well fitted with a simple partial exponential recovery. An exponential rise of approx. 20% of the frequency jump with a timescale of approx. 14 days results in a significantly better fit to the data; however, contamination from a systematic drift in the phase of the pulse profile cannot be excluded. A fraction of the glitch (approx. 19%) was recovered in a quasi-exponential manner having a recovery timescale of approx. 16 days. The long-term postglitch spin-down rate decreased in magnitude relative to the preglitch value. The changes in the source properties of 1E 2259+586 during its 2002 outburst are shown to be qualitatively similar to changes seen during or following burst activity in two SGRs, thus further solidifying the common nature of SGRs and AXP's as magnetars. The changes in persistent emission properties of 1E 2259+586 suggest that the star underwent a plastic deformation of the crust that simultaneously impacted the superfluid interior (crustal and possibly core superfluid) and the magnetosphere. Finally, the changes in persistent emission properties coincident with burst activity in 1E 2259+586 enabled us to infer previous burst-active episodes from this and other AXP's. The nondetection of these outbursts by all-sky gamma-ray instruments suggests that the number of active magnetar candidates in our Galaxy is larger than previously thought.

Woods, P. M.↗

Blastomeres show differential fate changes in 8-cell Xenopus laevis embryos that are rotated 90 degrees before first cleavage

To study the mechanisms of dorsal axis specification, the alteration in dorsal cell fate of cleavage stage blastomeres in axis-respecified Xenopus laevis embryos was investigated. Fertilized eggs were rotated 90 degrees with the sperm entry point up or down with respect to the gravitational field. At the 8-cell stage, blastomeres were injected with the lineage tracers, Texas Red- or FITC-Dextran Amines. The distribution of the labeled progeny was mapped at the tail-bud stages (stages 35-38) and compared with the fate map of an 8-cell embryo raised in a normal orientation. As in the normal embryos, each blastomere in the rotated embryos has a characteristic and predictable cell fate. After 90 degrees rotation the blastomeres in the 8-cell stage embryo roughly switched their position by 90 degrees, but the fate of the blastomeres did not simply show a 90 degrees switch appropriate for their new location. Four types of fate change were observed: (i) the normal fate of the blastomere is conserved with little change; (ii) the normal fate is completely changed and a new fate is adopted according to the blastomere's new position: (iii) the normal fate is completely changed, but the new fate is not appropriate for its new position; and (4) the blastomere partially changed its fate and the new fate is a combination of its original fate and a fate appropriate to its new location. According to the changed fates, the blastomeres that adopt dorsal fates were identified in rotated embryos. This identification of dorsal blastomeres provides basic important information for further study of dorsal signaling in Xenopus embryos.

NASA Discipline Developmental Biology↗

Mass Changes of the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets and Shelves and Contributions to Sea-level Rise: 1992-2002

Changes in ice mass are estimated from elevation changes derived from 10.5 years (Greenland) and 9 years (Antarctica) of satellite radar altimetry data from the European Remote-sensing Satellites ERS-1 and -2. For the first time, the dH/dt values are adjusted for changes in surface elevation resulting from temperature-driven variations in the rate of fun compaction. The Greenland ice sheet is thinning at the margins (-42 plus or minus 2 Gta(sup -1) below the equilibrium line altitude (ELA)) and growing inland (+53 plus or minus 2 Gt a(sup -1)above the ELA) with a small overall mass gain (+11 plus or minus 3 Gt a(sup -1); -0.03 mm a(sup -1) SLE (sea level equivalent)). The ice sheet in West Antarctica (WA) is losing mass (-47 (dot) 4 GT a(sup -1) and the ice sheet in East Antarctica (EA) shows a small mass gain (+16 plus or minus 11 Gt a(sup -1) for a combined net change of -31 plus or minus 12 Gt a(sup -1) (+0.08 mm a(sup -1) SLE)). The contribution of the three ice sheets to sea level is +0.05 plus or minus 0.03 mm a(sup -1). The Antarctic ice shelves show corresponding mass changes of -95 (dot) 11 Gt a(sup -1) in WA and +142 plus or minus 10 Gt a(sup -1) in EA. Thinning at the margins of the Greenland ice sheet and growth at higher elevations is an expected response to increasing temperatures and precipitation in a warming climate. The marked thinnings in the Pine Island and Thwaites Glacier basins of WA and the Totten Glacier basin in EA are probably ice-dynamic responses to long-term climate change and perhaps past removal of their adjacent ice shelves. The ice growth in the southern Antarctic Peninsula and parts of EA may be due to increasing precipitation during the last century.

Zwally, H. Jay↗

Seamless Data-Rate Change Using Punctured Convolutional Codes for Time-Varying Signal-to-Noise Ratio

In a time-varying signal-to-noise (SNR) environment, symbol rate is often changed to maximize ata return. However, the symbol-rate change has some undesirable effects such as changing the ransmission bandwidth and perhaps causing the receiver symbol loop to lose lock temporarily, thus osing some data. In this article, we are proposing an alternate way of varying the data rate without hanging the symbol rate and therefore the transmission bandwidth. The data rate change is achieved n a seamless fashion by puncturing the convolutionally encoded symbol stream to adapt to the hanging SNR environment. We have also derived an exact expression to enumerate the number of nique puncturing patterns. To demonstrate this seamless rate-change capability, we searched for good uncturing patterns for the Galileo (14, 1/4) convolutional code and changed the data rates by using the unctured codes to match the Galileo SNR profile of November 9, 1997.

Seamless Data-Rate↗

Integrated Aerodynamic/Structural/Dynamic Analyses of Aircraft with Large Shape Changes

The conceptual and preliminary design processes for aircraft with large shape changes are generally difficult and time-consuming, and the processes are often customized for a specific shape change concept to streamline the vehicle design effort. Accordingly, several existing reports show excellent results of assessing a particular shape change concept or perturbations of a concept. The goal of the current effort was to develop a multidisciplinary analysis tool and process that would enable an aircraft designer to assess several very different morphing concepts early in the design phase and yet obtain second-order performance results so that design decisions can be made with better confidence. The approach uses an efficient parametric model formulation that allows automatic model generation for systems undergoing radical shape changes as a function of aerodynamic parameters, geometry parameters, and shape change parameters. In contrast to other more self-contained approaches, the approach utilizes off-the-shelf analysis modules to reduce development time and to make it accessible to many users. Because the analysis is loosely coupled, discipline modules like a multibody code can be easily swapped for other modules with similar capabilities. One of the advantages of this loosely coupled system is the ability to use the medium-to high-fidelity tools early in the design stages when the information can significantly influence and improve overall vehicle design. Data transfer among the analysis modules are based on an accurate and automated general purpose data transfer tool. In general, setup time for the integrated system presented in this paper is 2-4 days for simple shape change concepts and 1-2 weeks for more mechanically complicated concepts. Some of the key elements briefly described in the paper include parametric model development, aerodynamic database generation, multibody analysis, and the required software modules as well as examples for a telescoping wing, a folding wing, and a bat-like wing.

Samareh, Jamshid A.↗

Detecting Changes in Terrain Using Unmanned Aerial Vehicles

In recent years, small unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) have been used for more than the thrill they bring to model airplane enthusiasts. Their flexibility and low cost have made them a viable option for low-altitude reconnaissance. In a recent effort, we acquired video data from a small UAV during several passes over the same flight path. The objective of the exercise was to determine if objects had been added to the terrain along the flight path between flight passes. Several issues accrue to this simple-sounding problem: (1) lighting variations may cause false detection of objects because of changes in shadow orientation and strength between passes; (2) variations in the flight path due to wind-speed, and heading change may cause misalignment of gross features making the task of detecting changes between the frames very difficult; and (3) changes in the aircraft orientation and altitude lead to a change in size of the features from frame-to-frame making a comparison difficult. In this paper, we discuss our efforts to perform this change detection, and the lessons that we learned from this exercise.

Rahman, Zia-ur↗