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NASA NTRS2015

Introduction The Role of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project

Climate impacts on agriculture are of increasing concern in both the scientific and policy communities because of the need to ensure food security for a growing population. A special challenge is posed by the changes in the frequency and intensity of heat-waves, droughts, and episodic rainstorms already underway in many parts of the world. Changes in production are directly linked to such variations in temperature and precipitation during the growing season, and often to offseason changes in weather affecting soil-water storage and availability to crops. This is not an isolated problem but one of both global and regional importance, because of impacts on the livelihoods of smallholder farmers as well as consequences for the world food trade system. This two-part set the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP): Integrated Crop and Economic Assessments is the first to be entirely devoted to AgMIP (www.agmip.org). AgMIP is a major international research program focused on climate change and agriculture. The goal of the two parts is to advance the field by providing detailed information on new simulation techniques and assessments being conducted by this program. It presents information about new methods of global and regional integrated assessment, results from agricultural regions, and adaptation strategies for maintaining food security under changing climate conditions.

security↗
NASA NTRS2022

Growing Impact of Wildfire on Western US Water Supply

Streamflow often increases after fire, but the persistence of this effect and its importance to present and future regional water resources are unclear. This paper addresses these knowledge gaps for the western United States (WUS), where annual forest fire area increased by more than 1,100% during 1984 to 2020. Among 72 forested basins across the WUS that burned between 1984 and 2019, the multibasin mean streamflow was significantly elevated by 0.19 SDs ( P < 0.01) for an average of 6 water years postfire, compared to the range of results expected from climate alone. Significance is assessed by comparing prefire and postfire streamflow responses to climate and also to streamflow among 107 control basins that experienced little to no wildfire during the study period. The streamflow response scales with fire extent: among the 29 basins where >20% of forest area burned in a year, streamflow over the first 6 water years postfire increased by a multibasin average of 0.38 SDs, or 30%. Postfire streamflow increases were significant in all four seasons. Historical fire–climate relationships combined with climate model projections suggest that 2021 to 2050 will see repeated years when climate is more fire-conducive than in 2020, the year currently holding the modern record for WUS forest area burned. These findings center on relatively small, minimally managed basins, but our results suggest that burned areas will grow enough over the next 3 decades to enhance streamflow at regional scales. Wildfire is an emerging driver of runoff change that will increasingly alter climate impacts on water supplies and runoff-related risks.

wildfire↗
NASA NTRS2014

Constraints and Potentials of Future Irrigation Water Availability on Agricultural Production Under Climate Change

Freshwater availability is relevant to almost all socioeconomic and environmental impacts of climate and demographic change and their implications for sustainability. We compare ensembles of water supply and demand projections driven by ensemble output from five global climate models. Our results suggest reasons for concern. Direct climate impacts to maize, soybean, wheat, and rice involve losses of 400–2,600 Pcal (8–43% of present-day total). Freshwater limitations in some heavily irrigated regions could necessitate reversion of 20–60 Mha of cropland from irrigated to rainfed management, and a further loss of 600–2,900 Pcal. Freshwater abundance in other regions could help ameliorate these losses, but substantial investment in infrastructure would be required. We compare ensembles of water supply and demand projections from 10 global hydrological models and six global gridded crop models. These are produced as part of the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project, with coordination from the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project, and driven by outputs of general circulation models run under representative concentration pathway 8.5 as part of the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Models project that direct climate impacts to maize, soybean, wheat, and rice involve losses of 400–1,400 Pcal (8–24% of present-day total) when CO2 fertilization effects are accounted for or 1,400–2,600 Pcal (24–43%) otherwise. Freshwater limitations in some irrigated regions (western United States; China; and West, South, and Central Asia) could necessitate the reversion of 20–60 Mha of cropland from irrigated to rainfed management by end-of-century, and a further loss of 600–2,900 Pcal of food production. In other regions (northern/eastern United States, parts of South America, much of Europe, and South East Asia) surplus water supply could in principle support a net increase in irrigation, although substantial investments in irrigation infrastructure would be required.

agriculture↗
NASA NTRS1993

Model simulations of the competing climatic effects of SO2 and CO2

Sulfur dioxide-derived cloud condensation nuclei are expected to enhance the planetary albedo, thereby cooling the planet. This effect might counteract the global warming expected from enhanced greenhouse gases. A detailed treatment of the relationship between fossil fuel burning and the SO2 effect on cloud albedo is implemented in a two-dimensional model for assessing the climate impact. Using a conservative approach, results show that the cooling induced by the SO2 emission can presently counteract 50 percent of the CO2 greenhouse warming. Since 1980, a strong warming trend has been predicted by the model: 0.15 C during the 1980-1990 period alone. The model predicts that by the year 2060 the SO2 cooling reduces climate warming by 0.5 C or 25 percent for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) business as usual (BAU) scenario and 0.2 C or 20 percent for scenario D (for a slow pace of fossil fuel burning). The hypothesis is examined that the different responses between the Northern Hemisphere and the Southern Hemisphere can be used to validate the presence of the SO2-induced cooling.

Kaufman, Yoram J.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Remote Sensing of Aerosol in the Terrestrial Atmosphere from Space: New Missions

The distribution and properties of atmospheric aerosols on a global scale are not well known in terms of determination of their effects on climate. This mostly is due to extreme variability of aerosol concentrations, properties, sources, and types. Aerosol climate impact is comparable to the effect of greenhouse gases, but its influence is more difficult to measure, especially with respect to aerosol microphysical properties and the evaluation of anthropogenic aerosol effect. There are many satellite missions studying aerosol distribution in the terrestrial atmosphere, such as MISR/Terra, OMI/Aura, AVHHR, MODIS/Terra and Aqua, CALIOP/CALIPSO. To improve the quality of data and climate models, and to reduce aerosol climate forcing uncertainties, several new missions are planned. The gap in orbital instruments for studying aerosol microphysics has arisen after the Glory mission failed during launch in 2011. In this review paper, we describe several planned aerosol space missions, including the Ukrainian project Aerosol-UA that obtains data using a multi-channel scanning polarimeter and wide-angle polarimetric camera. The project is designed for remote sensing of the aerosol microphysics and cloud properties on a global scale.

Aerosol↗
NASA NTRS2022

Western Sonoran Desert Water Resources: Evaluating Rock Pool Hydroperiod Fluctuation using Climate Variables to Inform Habitat Monitoring and Protection in the Western Sonoran Desert

Ephemeral freshwater rock pools, known as tinajas, have great biologic and cultural importance as sources of surface water in the western Sonoran Desert (WSD). Tinaja flooding and drying cycles, known as hydroperiods, vary based on meteorologic and climatologic conditions; however, a lack of extensive research relating climatic impacts to tinajas puts these critical ecosystems further at risk. The National Park Service (NPS) and the University of Arizona monitor the physical and ecological condition of tinajas in Organ Pipe Cactus National Monument (OPCNM), AZ, using resource-intensive strategies: in situ trail cameras and direct measurements. To aid monitoring efforts, the NASA DEVELOP team aimed to incorporate remote sensing into NPS strategies by analyzing spatiotemporal climate data and tinaja hydroperiods in OPCNM between 1979–2022. Using Aqua and Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometers (MODIS), University of Idaho Gridded Surface Meteorological Dataset (gridMET), and OpenET data, the team generated climatology maps and time series for OPCNM. The team compared these data to daily in situ hydroperiod observations from the University of Arizona between 2019–2022. Climate maps and time series showed increases in temperature and solar radiation (p<0.05), while analyses of in situ data showed correlations of hydroperiods with precipitation and evapotranspiration. End products identified high-risk tinajas and demonstrated that Earth observations can successfully be correlated with in situ hydroperiod observations. These results will support NPS efforts to prioritize water resource management and inform protocols driving the conservation of tinajas in OPCNM.

Anne Britton↗
NASA NTRS2020

Historical (1850‐2014) Aerosol Evolution and Role on Climate Forcing Using the GISS Modele2.1 Contribution to CMIP6

The Earth’s climate is rapidly changing. Over the past centuries, aerosols, via their ability to absorb or scatter solar radiation and alter clouds, played an important role in counterbalancing some of the greenhouse gas (GHG) caused global warming. The multi-century anthropogenic aerosol cooling effect prevented present-day climate from reaching even higher surface air temperatures and subsequent more dramatic climate impacts. Trends in aerosol concentrations and optical depth show that in many polluted regions such as Europe and the United States of America, aerosol precursor emissions decreased back to levels of the 1950s. More recent polluting countries such as China may have reached a turning point in recent years as well, while India still follows an upward trend. Here we study aerosol trends in the CMIP6 simulations of the GISS ModelE2.1 climate model using a fully coupled atmosphere composition onfiguration, including interactive gas-phase chemistry, and either an aerosol microphysical (MATRIX) or a mass-based (OMA) aerosol module. Results show that whether global aerosol radiative forcing is already declining depends on the aerosol scheme used. Using the aerosol microphysical scheme, where the aerosol system reacts more strongly to the trend in sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions, global peak direct aerosol forcing was reached in the 1980’s, whereas the mass-based scheme simulates peak direct aerosol forcing around 2010.

Aerosol forcing↗
NASA NTRS1994

The Sun as a Variable Star: Solar and Stellar Irradiance Variations; Colloquium of the International Astronomical Union, 143rd, Boulder, CO, Jun. 20-25, 1993

Variations in solar and stellar irradiances have long been of interest. An International Astronomical Union (IAU) colloquium reviewed such relevant subjects as observations, theoretical interpretations, and empirical and physical models, with a special emphasis on climatic impact of solar irradiance variability. Specific topics discussed included: (1) General Reviews on Observations of Solar and Stellar Irradiance Variability; (2) Observational Programs for Solar and Stellar Irradiance Variability; (3) Variability of Solar and Stellar Irradiance Related to the Network, Active Regions (Sunspots and Plages), and Large-Scale Magnetic Structures; (4) Empirical Models of Solar Total and Spectral Irradiance Variability; (5) Solar and Stellar Oscillations, Irradiance Variations and their Interpretations; and (6) The Response of the Earth's Atmosphere to Solar Irradiance Variations and Sun-Climate Connections.

Pap, Judit M.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Characteristics of the East Asian Winter Climate Associated with the Westerly Jet Stream and ENSO

In this study, the influences of the East Asian jet stream (EAJS) and El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the interannual variability of the East Asian winter climate are examined with a focus on the relative climate impacts of the two phenomena. Although the variations of the East Asian winter monsoon and the temperature and precipitation of China, Japan, and Korea are emphasized, the associated changes in the broad-scale atmospheric circulation patterns over Asia and the Pacific and in the extratropical North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) are also investigated. It is demonstrated that there is no apparent relationship between ENSO and the interannual variability of EAJS core. The EAJS and ENSO are associated with distinctly different patterns of atmospheric circulation and SST in the Asian-Pacific regions. While ENSO causes major climate signals in the Tropics and over the North Pacific east of the dateline, the EAJS produces significant changes in the atmospheric circulation over East Asia and western Pacific. In particular, the EAJS explains larger variance of the interannual signals of the East Asian trough, the Asian continental high, the Aleutian low, and the East Asian winter monsoon. When the EAJS is strong, all these atmospheric systems intensify significantly. The response of surface temperature and precipitation to EAJS variability and ENSO is more complex. In general, the East Asian winter climate is cold (warm) and dry (wet) when the EAJS is strong (weak) and it is warm during El Nino years. However, different climate signals are found during different La Nina years. In terms of linear correlation, both the temperature and precipitation of northern China, Korea, and central Japan are more significantly associated with the EAJS than with ENSO.

Yang, Song↗
NASA NTRS2007

Impacts of Urbanization in the Coastal Tropical City of San Juan, Puerto Rico

Urban sprawl in tropical locations is rapidly accelerating and it is more evident in islands where a large percentage of the population resides along the coasts. This paper focuses on the analysis of the impacts of land use and land cover for urbanization in the tropical coastal city of San Juan, in the Caribbean island of Puerto Rico. A mesoscale numerical model, the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), is used to study the impacts of land use for urbanization in the environment including specific characteristics of the urban heat island in the San Juan Metropolitan Area (SJMA), one of the most noticeable urban cores of the Caribbean. The research also makes use of the observations obtained during the airborne San Juan Atlas Mission. Surface and rawinsonde data from the mission are used to validate the atmospheric model yielding satisfactory results. Airborne high resolution remote sensing data are used to update the model's surface characteristics in order to obtain a more accurate and detailed configuration of the SJMA and perform a climate impact analysis based on land cover/land use (LCLU) changes. The impact analysis showed that the presence of the urban landscape of San Juan has an impact reflected in higher air temperatures over the area occupied by the city, with positive values of up to 2.5 C, for the simulations that have specified urban LCLU indexes in the model's bottom boundary. One interesting result of the impact analysis was the finding of a precipitation disturbance shown as a difference in total accumulated rainfall between the present urban landscape and with a potential natural vegetation, apparently induced by the presence of the urban area. Results indicate that the urban enhanced cloud formation and precipitation development occur mainly downwind of the city, including the accumulated precipitation. This spatial pattern can be explained by the presence of a larger urbanized area in the southwest sector of the city, and of the approaching northeasterly trade winds. No significant impacts were found in the sea breeze patterns of the city.

Comarazamy, Daniel E.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Impacts of Urbanization in the Coastal Tropical City of San Juan, Puerto Rico

Urban sprawl in tropical locations is rapidly accelerating and it is more evident in islands where a large percentage of the population resides along the coasts. This paper focuses on the analysis of the impacts of land use and land cover for urbanization in the tropical coastal city of San Juan, in the Caribbean island of Puerto Rico. A mesoscale numerical model, the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), is used to study the impacts of land use for urbanization in the environment including specific characteristics of the urban heat island in the San Juan Metropolitan Area (SJMA), one of the most noticeable urban cores of the Caribbean. The research also makes use of the observations obtained during the airborne San Juan Atlas Mission. Surface and raw insonde data from the mission are used to validate the atmospheric model yielding satisfactory results. Airborne high resolution remote sensing data are used to update the model's surface characteristics in order to obtain a more accurate and detailed configuration of the SJMA and perform a climate impact analysis based on land cover/land use (LCLU) changes. The impact analysis showed that the presence of the urban landscape of San Juan has an impact reflected in higher air temperatures over the area occupied by the city, with positive values of up to 2.5 degrees C, for the simulations that have specified urban LCLU indexes in the model's bottom boundary. One interesting result of the impact analysis was the finding of a precipitation disturbance shown as a difference in total accumulated rainfall between the present urban landscape and with a potential natural vegetation, apparently induced by the presence of the urban area. Results indicate that the urban-enhanced cloud formation and precipitation development occur mainly downwind of the city, including the accumulated precipitation. This spatial pattern can be explained by the presence of a larger urbanized area in the southwest sector of the city, and of the approaching northeasterly trade winds.

Comarazamy, Daniel E.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Enabling Evaluation of In-Situ Regolith-Based Construction Materials with Modified Methods for Testing Compressive Strength of Non-Cement Mortar Specimens Using Simulants & Analog Site Soils

Objectives for Phase II of NASA’s Artemis Program include establishment of lunar surface infrastructure to support a sustainable, long-term human presence on the Moon. Terrestrially, awareness of climate impacts from cement and concrete production has led to renewed interest in traditional building materials using earthen and pozzolanic binders with locally sourced aggregates [1, 2, 3]. In remote, austere,and resource-constrained environments, use of site-sourced materials is often an economic necessity in addition to being valuable for local autonomy and self-sufficiency. This study evaluates modifications to ASTM cement mortar testing methods, incorporating details from European standards for earthen plasters and lime-based mortars. Development of consistent, simplified methods for evaluating in-situ materials will be essential not only for meeting future climate goals and sustainable construction needs, but also for conducting autonomous robotic manipulation and evaluation of regolith construction materials.

ISRU↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Electrochemical Recycling of CO2

Carbon dioxide (CO2) is a molecule that plays multiple roles in our universe. Currently, its impact on global warming has rightfully given CO2 a label as a harmful waste product that must be amply handled. Nonetheless, under other circumstances, and from other perspectives, CO2 could be regarded as a valuable resource. As example, in nature CO2 is an essential building block in photosynthesis ultimately yielding molecules and materials that we harvest for numerous applications ranging from energy storage and construction to medicines and food. In a similar manner, there is a growing interest to utilize atmospheric CO2 to generate renewable fuels and platform chemicals through artificial processes. These processes can replace fossil based industrial processes on earth alleviating climate impact, but they can also find uses far away from our planet. In space, CO2 is an important source of precious oxygen, however, it can also serve as feedstock for carbon-based molecules and materials that are needed to sustain societies at distant planets such as Mars. In this presentation, I will discuss the contemporary understanding of electrochemical reduction of CO2 for selective production of desired molecules. We will zoom in to the very atomic scale to gain mechanistic understanding of how the structure and composition of the cathode electrode affects product distributions. This information is used as guide in the design of new materials that convert CO2 more efficiently and more selectively. On this basis, opportunities for recycling CO2 under different conditions will be discussed, as will remaining challenges for the ultimate application towards the sustainable human living on earth and in space.

electrochemistry↗
NASA NTRS1988

Assessment of the atmospheric impact of volcanic eruptions

The dominant global impact of volcanic activity is likely to be related to the effects of volcanic gases on the Earth's atmosphere. Volcanic gas emissions from individual volcanic arc eruptions are likely to cause increases in the stratospheric optical depth that result in surface landmass temperature decline of 2 to 3 K for less than a decade. Trachytic and intermediate magmas are much more effective in this regard than high-silica magmas, and may also lead to extensive ozone depletion due to effect of halogens and magmatic water. Given the assumed relationship between arc volcanism and subduction rate, and the relatively small variation in global spreading rates in the geologic record, it is unlikely that the rates of arc volcanism have varied greatly during the Cenozoic. Hotspot related basaltic fissure eruptions in the subaerial environment have a higher mass yield of sulfur, but lofting of the valcanic aerosol to levels above the tropopause is required for a climate impact. High-latitude events, such as the Laki 1783 eruption can easily penetrate the tropopause and enter the stratosphere, but formation of a stratospheric volcanic aerosol form low-latitude effusive basaltic eruptions is problematical, due to the elevated low-latitude tropopause. Due to the high sulfur content of hotspot-derived basaltic magmas, their very high mass eruption rates and the episodic behavior, hotspots must be regarded as potentially major modifiers of Earth's climate through the action of their volcanic volatiles on the chemistry and physics of the atmosphere.

Sigurdsson, H.↗
NASA NTRS2017

The Uncertainty of Crop Yield Projections Is Reduced by Improved Temperature Response Functions

Increasing the accuracy of crop productivity estimates is a key element in planning adaptation strategies to ensure global food security under climate change. Process-based crop models are effective means to project climate impact on crop yield, but have large uncertainty in yield simulations. Here, we show that variations in the mathematical functions currently used to simulate temperature responses of physiological processes in 29 wheat models account for is greater than 50% of uncertainty in simulated grain yields for mean growing season temperatures from 14 C to 33 C. We derived a set of new temperature response functions that when substituted in four wheat models reduced the error in grain yield simulations across seven global sites with different temperature regimes by 19% to 50% (42% average). We anticipate the improved temperature responses to be a key step to improve modelling of crops under rising temperature and climate change, leading to higher skill of crop yield projections.

Wang, Enli↗
NASA NTRS2011

Interannual Variation in Phytoplankton Concentration and Community in the Pacific Ocean

Climate events such as El Nino have been shown to have an effect on the biology of our ocean. Because of the lack of data, we still have very little knowledge about the spatial and temporal effect these climate events may have on biological marine systems. In this study, we used the NASA Ocean Biogeochemical Model (NOBM) to assess the interannual variability in phytoplankton community in the Pacific Ocean between 1998 and 2005. In the North Central and Equatorial Pacific Ocean, changes in the Multivariate El Nino Index were associated with changes in phytoplankton composition. The model identified an increase in diatoms of approx.33 % in the equatorial Pacific in 1999 during a La Nina event. This increase in diatoms coincided with a decrease of approx.11 % in cyanobacteria concentration. The inverse relationship between cyanobacteria and diatoms concentration was significant (p<0.05) throughout the period of study. The use of a numerical model allows us to assess the impact climate variability has on key phytoplankton groups known to lead to contrasting food chain at a spatial and temporal resolution unachievable when relying solely on in-situ observations.

Rousseaux, C. S.↗
NASA NTRS2006

The Three Gorges Dam Affects Regional Precipitation

Issues regarding building large-scale dams as a solution to power generation and flood control problems have been widely discussed by both natural and social scientists from various disciplines, as well as the policy-makers and public. Since the Chinese government officially approved the Three Gorges Dam (TGD) projects, this largest hydroelectric project in the world has drawn a lot of debates ranging from its social and economic to climatic impacts. The TGD has been partially in use since June 2003. The impact of the TGD is examined through analysis of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) rainfall rate and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land surface temperature and high-resolution simulation using the Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU-NCAR) fifth-generation Mesoscale Model (MM5). The independent satellite data sets and numerical simulation clearly indicate that the land use change associated with the TGD construction has increased the precipitation in the region between Daba and Qinling mountains and reduced the precipitation in the vicinity of the TGD after the TGD water level abruptly rose from 66 to 135 m in June 2003. This study suggests that the climatic effect of the TGD is on the regional scale (approx.100 km) rather than on the local scale (approx.10 km) as projected in previous studies.

Wu, Liguang↗
NASA NTRS2021

Quantifying the role of ocean coupling in Arctic amplification and sea-ice loss over the 21st century

The enhanced warming of the Arctic, relative to other parts of the Earth, a phenomenon known as Arctic amplification, is one of the most striking features of climate change, and has important climatic impacts for the entire Northern Hemisphere. Several mechanisms are believed to be responsible for Arctic amplification; however, a quantitative understanding of their relative importance is still missing. Here, using ensembles of model integrations, we quantify the contribution of ocean coupling, both its thermodynamic and dynamic components, to Arctic amplification over the 20th and 21st centuries. We show that ocean coupling accounts for ~80% of the amplification by 2100. In particular, we show that thermodynamic coupling is responsible for future amplification and sea-ice loss as it overcomes the effect of dynamic coupling which reduces the amplification and sea-ice loss by ~35%. Our results demonstrate the utility of targeted numerical experiments to quantify the role of specific mechanisms in Arctic amplification, for better constraining climate projections.

Ocean heat transport↗