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The Character of the Beaufort Sea Ice Cover From Active and Passive Microwave Observations

By definition, ice which survives the summer is classified as multiyear ice. Thus, multiyear ice concentration during the winter should be nearly equivalent to the ice concentration during the previous summer's minima. This condition provides a reasonable criterion for evaluation of ice concentration and ice type retrieval algorithms from remote sensing datasets. From SSM/I data, the NASA Team algorithm estimates the multiyear, first-year and total ice concentrations throughout the sea ice season using combinations of the polarization and spectral gradient ratios.

Beaufort Sea↗

Chapter 13. Atmospheric Dynamics and Meteorology

Titan, after Venus, is the second example in the solar system of an atmosphere with a global cyclostrophic circulation, but in this case a circulation that has a strong seasonal modulation in the middle atmosphere. Direct measurement of Titan's winds, particularly observations tracking the Huygens probe at 10 deg S, indicate that the zonal winds are mostly in the sense of the satellite's rotation. They generally increase with altitude and become cyclostrophic near 35 km above the surface. An exception to this is a sharp minimum centered near 75 km, where the wind velocity decreases to nearly zero. Zonal winds derived from temperatures retrieved from Cassini orbiter measurements, using the thermal wind equation, indicate a strong winter circumpolar vortex, with maximum winds of 190 m/s at mid northern latitudes near 300 km. Above this level, the vortex decays. Curiously, the stratospheric zonal winds and temperatures in both hemispheres are symmetric about a pole that is offset from the surface pole by about 4 deg. The cause of this is not well understood, but it may reflect the response of a cyclostrophic circulation to the onset between the equator, where the distance to the rotation axis is greatest, and the seasonally varying subsolar latitude. The mean meridional circulation can be inferred from the temperature field and the meridional distribution of organic molecules and condensates and hazes. Both the warm temperatures near 400 km and the enhanced concentration of several organic molecules suggest subsidence in the north polar region during winter and early spring. Stratospheric condensates are localized at high northern latitudes, with a sharp cut-off near 50 deg N. Titan's winter polar vortex appears to share many of the same characteristics of isolating high and low-latitude air masses as do the winter polar vortices on Earth that envelop the ozone holes. Global mapping of temperatures, winds, and composition in the troposphere, by contrast, is incomplete. The few suitable discrete clouds that have been found for tracking indicate smaller velocities than aloft, consistent: with the Huygens measurements, Along the descent trajectory, the Huygens measurements indicate eastward zonal winds down to 7 km, where they shift westward, and then eastward again below 1 km dawn to the surface. The low-latitude dune fields seen in Cassini RADAR images have been interpreted as longitudinal dunes occurring in a mean eastward zonal wind. This is not like Earth, where the low-latitude winds are westward above the surface. Because the net zonal-mean time-averaged torque exerted by the surface on the atmosphere should vanish, there must be westward flow over part of the surface; the question is where and when. The meridional contrast in tropospheric temperatures deduced from radio occultations at low, mid, and high latitudes. is small, approximately 5 K at the tropopause and approximately 3 K at the surface. This implies efficient heat transport, probably by axisymmetric meridional circulations. The effect of the methane "hydrological" cycle on the atmospheric circulation is not well constrained by existing measurements, Understanding the mature of the surface-atmosphere coupling will be critical to elucidating the atmospheric transports of momentum, heat, and volatiles.

Flasar, F. M.↗

Age of Martian Air: Time Scales for Martian Atmospheric Transport

The mean time since air in the Martian atmosphere was in the low-latitude boundary layer is examined using simulations of an idealized “mean age” tracer with the MarsWRF general circulation model. The spatial distribution and seasonality of the mean age in low- and mid-latitudes broadly follow contours of the mean meridional circulation, with the mean age increasing from 0 at the surface to a maximum of 60–100 sols in the upper atmosphere. Substantially older mean ages (exceeding 300 sols) are found in polar regions, with oldest ages in the lower atmosphere (10–100 Pa), above a near-surface layer with very young ages (around 20 sols). The annual maximum ages occur around the equinoxes, and the age in the polar lower atmosphere decreases during the autumn to winter transition. This autumn-winter decrease in age occurs because of mixing of polar and mid-latitude air when the polar vortex exhibits an annulus of high potential vorticity (PV) with a local minimum near the pole. There is no autumn-winter decrease and old ages persist throughout autumn and winter in simulations with CO2 phase changes disabled, and thus no latent heating, where there is a monopolar vortex (i.e., a monotonic increase in PV from equator to pole) forms. The altitudinal and seasonal variations in the mean age indicates similar variations in the transport of dust into polar regions and the mixing of polar air (with, e.g., low water vapor and high ozone concentrations during winter) into mid-latitudes.

Waugh, D. W.↗

A Long-Term and Reproducible Passive Microwave Sea Ice Concentration Data Record for Climate Studies and Monitoring

A long-term, consistent, and reproducible satellite-based passive microwave sea ice concentration climate data record (CDR) is available for climate studies, monitoring, and model validation with an initial operation capability (IOC). The daily and monthly sea ice concentration data are on the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) polar stereographic grid with nominal 25 km × 25 km grid cells in both the Southern and Northern Hemisphere polar regions from 9 July 1987 to 31 December 2007. The data files are available in the NetCDF data format at http://nsidc.org/data/g02202.html and archived by the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) under the satellite climate data record program (http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdr/operationalcdrs.html). The description and basic characteristics of the NOAA/NSIDC passive microwave sea ice concentration CDR are presented here. The CDR provides similar spatial and temporal variability as the heritage products to the user communities with the additional documentation, traceability, and reproducibility that meet current standards and guidelines for climate data records. The data set, along with detailed data processing steps and error source information, can be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.7265/N5B56GN3.

monitoring↗

Lunar Topography: Results from the Lunar Orbiter Laser Altimeter

The Lunar Orbiter Laser Altimeter (LOLA) onboard the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) has been operating nearly continuously since July 2009, accumulating over 6 billion measurements from more than 2 billion in-orbit laser shots. LRO's near-polar orbit results in very high data density in the immediate vicinity of the lunar poles, with full coverage at the equator from more than 12000 orbital tracks averaging less than 1 km in spacing at the equator. LRO has obtained a global geodetic model of the lunar topography with 50-meter horizontal and 1-m radial accuracy in a lunar center-of-mass coordinate system, with profiles of topography at 20-m horizontal resolution, and 0.1-m vertical precision. LOLA also provides measurements of reflectivity and surface roughness down to its 5-m laser spot size. With these data LOLA has measured the shape of all lunar craters 20 km and larger. In the proposed extended mission commencing late in 2012, LOLA will concentrate observations in the Southern Hemisphere, improving the density of the polar coverage to nearly 10-m pixel resolution and accuracy to better than 20 m total position error. Uses for these data include mission planning and targeting, illumination studies, geodetic control of images, as well as lunar geology and geophysics. Further improvements in geodetic accuracy are anticipated from the use of re ned gravity fields after the successful completion of the Gravity Recovery and Interior Laboratory (GRAIL) mission in 2012.

Neumann, Gregory↗

Investigation of Cloud Interior Structure Using a Tomographic Technique Based on Radon Transform. Application to the Measurements Made by the Research Scanning Polarimeter During CAMP2Ex

The Research Scanning Polarimeter (RSP) is an airborne along-track scanner measuring the polarized and total reflectances in 9 spectral channels. The RSP's uniquely high angular resolution coupled with the high frequency of measurements allows for characterization of liquid-water cloud droplet sizes using the rainbow structure observed in the polarized reflectance measurements. The RSP observations also provide for derivation of 2D field of extinction coefficient inside the cloud using a tomographic technique. This technique utilizes the family of cloud shapes derived using "cutout" technique and corresponding to a number of thresholds in total reflectance (separating bright cloud from its darker background). These shapes can be interpreted as level curves of an abstract "reflectance density", which is then used for derivation of the directional cloud optical thickness (dCOT) tomogram. The latter is a collection of dCOTs parameterized by the angles and offsets of the corresponding view rays (chords) relative to the cloud center. After this, the inverse Radon Transform (the mathematical basis of the X-ray com-puter tomography) is applied to the dCOT tomogram yielding 2D spatial distribution of the extinction coefficient. The later can be converted into droplet number concentration using the droplet size profiles derived from the RSP's polarized reflectance measurements. After tests on synthetic data this technique was applied to real RSP measurements from NASA's Cloud, Aerosol and Monsoon Processes Philippines Experiment (CAMP2Ex) conducted in the vicinity of the Philippines during the Southwest Monsoon (August–September 2019). We have investigated the interiors of a number of clouds observed during CAMP2Ex focusing on Cu and CuCg (Tcu) cases. Our retrievals were routinely compared with the correlative measurements by lidar (HSRL-2) and cloud radar (APR-3) that were deployed on the same airborne platform (NASA P-3B) during this field experiment.

Research Scanning Polarimeter↗

Hydrostatic pressure mimics gravitational pressure in characean cells

Hydrostatic pressure applied to one end of a horizontal Chara cell induces a polarity of cytoplasmic streaming, thus mimicking the effect of gravity. A positive hydrostatic pressure induces a more rapid streaming away from the applied pressure and a slower streaming toward the applied pressure. In contrast, a negative pressure induces a more rapid streaming toward and a slower streaming away from the applied pressure. Both the hydrostatic pressure-induced and gravity-induced polarity of cytoplasmic streaming respond identically to cell ligation, UV microbeam irradiation, external Ca2+ concentrations, osmotic pressure, neutral red, TEA Cl-, and the Ca2+ channel blockers nifedipine and LaCl3. In addition, hydrostatic pressure applied to the bottom of a vertically-oriented cell can abolish and even reverse the gravity-induced polarity of cytoplasmic streaming. These data indicate that both gravity and hydrostatic pressure act at the same point of the signal transduction chain leading to the induction of a polarity of cytoplasmic streaming and support the hypothesis that characean cells respond to gravity by sensing a gravity-induced pressure differential between the cell ends.

NASA Discipline Number 40-50↗

Interannual Variability of Seasonal Pblooms in the North Polar Atlantic in Response to Atmospheric Forcing

The year-to-year variability of timing, intensity, and spatial distribution of surface phytoplankton during spring-summer seasons is examined in the north polar region of the Atlantic using satellite-derived chlorophyll a concentration (Chl) over 7 years (1998 2004). Each year phytoplankton bloom differed in onset, temporal evolution, and intensity. This interannual variability is to a large degree controlled by local weather, as indicated by the analysis of coincident meteorological data. The atmospheric forcing was parameterized in terms of the generation rate of turbulent kinetic energy (TKE(sub RT)) supplied from the atmosphere to the ocean. Timing of the bloom is delayed in years with high TKE(sub RT) supplied to the ocean in March. In April, Chl (local and regionally averaged) and TKE(sub RT) are inversely related to one another. The late winter and early spring atmospheric conditions influence the seasonal Chl patterns. The seasonal (April-August) Chl correlates well with net heat flux, wind energy, and TKE(sub RT) in March and April, but the correlation can be negative or positive in different areas of the north polar Atlantic. The correlation between TKE(sub RT) and seasonal Chl is positive in the Greenland Gyre (higher seasonal Chl corresponds to higher TKE(sub RT) in March April) and negative in the regions of East Greenland and North Atlantic/West Spitsbergen Currents. The most likely explanation for the positive correlation between TKE(sub RT) and Chl within the Greenland Gyre is that higher TKE(sub RT) in spring increases the seasonal supply of nutrients into surface waters.

Stramska, Malgorzata↗

Optical effects of polar stratospheric clouds on the retrieval of TOMS total ozone

Small areas of sharply reduced ozone density appear frequently in the maps produced from polar region total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS) data. These mini-holes are of the order of 1000 km in extent with a lifetime of a few days. On the basis of measurements from ground-based instruments, balloon-borne ozonesondes, and simultaneous measurements of aerosol and ozone concentrations during aircraft flights in the Arctic and Antarctic regions, the appearance of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) are frequently associated with false reductions in ozone derived from the TOMS albedo data. By combining radiative transfer calculations with the observed PSC and ozone data, it is shown that PSCs located near or above the ozone density maximum (with optical thickness greater than 0.1) can explain most of the differences between TOMS ozone data and ground or in situ ozone measurements. Several examples of real and false TOMS mini-hole phenomenon are investigated using data from the 1989 Airborne Arctic Stratospheric Expedition (AASE) and from balloon flights over Norway and Sweden.

Torres, O.↗

Forecasting Ocean Chlorophyll in the Equatorial Pacific

Using a global ocean biogeochemical model combined with a forecast of physical oceanic and atmospheric variables from the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, we assess the skill of a chlorophyll concentrations forecast in the Equatorial Pacific for the period 2012-2015 with a focus on the forecast of the onset of the 2015 El Niño event. Using a series of retrospective 9-month hindcasts, we assess the uncertainties of the forecasted chlorophyll by comparing the monthly total chlorophyll concentration from the forecast with the corresponding monthly ocean chlorophyll data from the Suomi-National Polar-orbiting Partnership Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (S-NPP VIIRS) satellite. The forecast was able to reproduce the phasing of the variability in chlorophyll concentration in the Equatorial Pacific, including the beginning of the 2015-2016 El Niño. The anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) was significant (p less than 0.05) for forecast at 1-month (R=0.33), 8-month (R=0.42) and 9-month (R=0.41) lead times. The root mean square error (RMSE) increased from 0.0399 microgram ch1 L(exp -1) for the 1-month lead forecast to a maximum of 0.0472 microgram ch1 L(exp -1) for the 9-month lead forecast indicating that the forecast of the amplitude of chlorophyll concentration variability was getting worse. Forecasts with a 3-month lead time were on average the closest to the S-NPP VIIRS data (23% or 0.033 microgram ch1 L(exp -1)) while the forecast with a 9-month lead time were the furthest (31% or 0.042 microgram ch1 L(exp -1)). These results indicate the potential for forecasting chlorophyll concentration in this region but also highlights various deficiencies and suggestions for improvements to the current biogeochemical forecasting system. This system provides an initial basis for future applications including the effects of El Niño events on fisheries and other ocean resources given improvements identified in the analysis of these results.

Anomaly Correlation Coefficient (ACC)↗

Assessing the Skill of Chlorophyll Forecasts: Latest Development and Challenges Ahead Using the Case of the Equatorial Pacific

Using a global ocean biogeochemical model combined with a forecast of physical oceanic and atmospheric variables from the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, we assess the skill of a chlorophyll concentrations forecast in the Equatorial Pacific for the period 2012-2015 with a focus on the forecast of the onset of the 2015 El Nino event. Using a series of retrospective 9-month hindcasts, we assess the uncertainties of the forecasted chlorophyll by comparing the monthly total chlorophyll concentration from the forecast with the corresponding monthly ocean chlorophyll data from the Suomi-National Polar-orbiting Partnership Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (S-NPP VIIRS) satellite. The forecast was able to reproduce the phasing of the variability in chlorophyll concentration in the Equatorial Pacific, including the beginning of the 2015-2016 El Nino. The anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) was significant (p less than 0.05) for forecast at 1-month (R=0.33), 8-month (R=0.42) and 9-month (R=0.41) lead times. The root mean square error (RMSE) increased from 0.0399 microgram chl L(exp -1) for the 1-month lead forecast to a maximum of 0.0472 microgram chl L(exp -1) for the 9-month lead forecast indicating that the forecast of the amplitude of chlorophyll concentration variability was getting worse. Forecasts with a 3-month lead time were on average the closest to the S-NPP VIIRS data (23% or 0.033 microgram chl L(exp -1)) while the forecast with a 9-month lead time were the furthest (31% or 0.042 microgram chl L(exp -1)). These results indicate the potential for forecasting chlorophyll concentration in this region but also highlights various deficiencies and suggestions for improvements to the current biogeochemical forecasting system. This system provides an initial basis for future applications including the effects of El Nino events on fisheries and other ocean resources given improvements identified in the analysis of these results.

El Nin↗

Identifying Indicators of Harmful Algal Blooms in Coastal Atacama Using Satellite Image Processing Techniques to Improve Industry and Authority Response

Over the past decade, Chile has experienced a significant rise in both the frequency and intensity of coastal Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs). These bloom events are a growing concern for the Atacama Region especially, with potential impacts on human health, aquaculture, and the environment. HABs are caused by an excess proliferation of microalgae, with certain algae species commonly found in Chilean HABs capable of producing toxins which can poison fish, toxify shellfish, and cause illness or death when ingested by humans. Collaborating with the Ministry of Health of Chile, Centro de Información de Recursos Naturales, the University of Atacama, and the Embassy of Chile’s Agricultural Office, this study identifies potential indicators of HABs in the Coastal Atacama Region using NASA Earth observations. Satellite imagery from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument onboard NASA’s Aqua satellite was used for the identification of chlorophyll-a which provides direct estimates of the algae pigment’s concentration in water bodies. In addition, the spatiotemporal patterns of several other parameters were examined to identify correlations with occurrences of HABs, including sea surface temperature and normalized fluorescence line height using Aqua MODIS, Normalized Difference Turbidity Index (NDTI) using Landsat 8, and ocean wind speed measurements from the NOAA Joint Polar Satellite System. Analysis of these patterns revealed hotspots of high chlorophyll-a concentrations from the years 2014 to 2022, the most major of which occurring in the coastal zones of Chañaral, Bahía Inglesa, and Huasco. Also, through the use of a similarity search conducted, the seasonal variation of these indicators was mapped to highlight areas with great likelihood of experiencing HABs in the future. The results can guide future efforts for in-situ water sampling, toxin analysis and assessment, and HAB monitoring and prevention.

Cody O'Ferrall↗

The QBO and interannual variation in total ozone

Garcia and Soloman (1987) have noted that the October monthly mean minimum total ozone amounts south of 30 S were modulated by a quasibiennial oscillation (QBO) signal. The precise mechanism behind this effect, however, is unclear. Is the modulation brought about by the circulation-produced QBO signal in the ozone concentration itself, or does the temperature QBO modulate the formation of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs), leading to changes in the chemically induced Antarctic spring ozone decline rate. Or is some other phenomenon involved. To investigate the means through which the QBO effect occurs, a series of correlation studies has been made between polar ozone and QBO signal in ozone and temperature.

Lait, Leslie R.↗

Millimeter wave radiative transfer studies for precipitation measurements

Scattering calculations using the discrete dipole approximation and vector radiative transfer calculations were performed to model multiparameter radar return and passive microwave emission for a simple model of a winter storm. The issue of dendrite riming was addressed by computing scattering properties of thin ice disks with varying bulk density. It was shown that C-band multiparameter radar contains information about particle density and the number concentration of the ice particles. The radiative transfer modeling indicated that polarized multifrequency passive microwave emission may be used to infer some properties of ice hydrometers. Detailed radar modeling and vector radiative transfer modeling is in progress to enhance the understanding of simultaneous radar and radiometer measurements, as in the case of the proposed TRMM field program. A one-dimensional cloud model will be used to simulate the storm structure in detail and study the microphysics, such as size and density. Multifrequency polarized radiometer measurements from the SSMI satellite instrument will be analyzed in relation to dual-frequency and dual-polarization radar measurements.

Vivekanandan, J.↗

Lunar Prospector: a Preliminary Surface Remote Sensing Resource Assessment for the Moon

The potential existence of lunar volatiles is a scientific discovery that could distinctly change the direction of pathways of inner solar system human expansion. With a dedicated germanium gamma ray spectrometer launched in the early 1990's, surface water concentrations of 0.7 percent could be detected immediately upon full lunar polar orbit operations. The expense of lunar base construction and operation would be dramatically reduced over a scenario with no lunar volatile resources. Global surface mineral distribution could be mapped out and integrated into a GIS database for lunar base site selection. Extensive surface lunar mapping would also result in the utilization of archived Apollo images. A variety of remote sensing systems and their parameters have been proposed for use in the detection of these lunar ice masses. The detection or nondetection of subsurface and surface ice masses in lunar polar crater floors could dramatically direct the development pathways that the human race might follow in its radiation from the Earth to habitable locales in the inner terran solar system. Potential sources of lunar volatiles are described. The use of remote sensing to detect lunar volatiles is addressed.

Mardon, A. A.↗

Upper Tropospheric/Lower Stratospheric Distribution of Reactive Nitrogen and Ozone

In-situ measurements of a large number of trace chemicals from upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (UT/LS) were performed with the NASA DC-8 aircraft during February/March 1994 over the Pacific Ocean (10 S to 60 N). Mixing ratios in the UT were relatively low in the warm tropical and subtropical air south of the polar jetstream (approx. =28 N) but increased sharply with latitude in the cold polar air north of the jetstream. At about 45 N, high concentrations of PAN (300 ppt) coexisted with extremely low (approx. = 20 ppt) concentrations of NOx. Elevated NOx levels in the UT did not always correspond to continental outflow conditions. Deepest penetrations into the stratosphere (550 ppb O3, 279 ppb NOx, and 350 K potential temperature) corresponded to a region that has been defined as the 'lowermost stratosphere' (LS) by Holton et al. Analysis of data shows that the mixing ratios of long-lived tracer species (e.g., CH4, HNO3, NOy, CFCs, HCFCs) are linearly correlated with those of O3 and N2O. A delta-NOY/delta-O3 of 0.0054 ppb/ppb and delta-NOy/delta-N2O of -0.081 ppb/ppb is in good agreement with other reported measurements from the DC-8. These slopes are however, somewhat steeper than those reported from the ER-2 studies. We find that the reactive nitrogen budget in the UT/LS is largely balanced with shortfalls that are no greater than 15%. A number of oxygenated species (e.g., acetone, H2O2) are present and may provide an important in-situ source of HOx in the UT/LS region.

Singh, H. S.↗

Solar Cycle #24 and the Solar Dynamo

We focus on two solar aspects related to flight dynamics. These are the solar dynamo and long-term solar activity predictions. The nature of the solar dynamo is central to solar activity predictions, and these predictions are important for orbital planning of satellites in low earth orbit (LEO). The reason is that the solar ultraviolet (UV) and extreme ultraviolet (EUV) spectral irradiances inflate the upper atmospheric layers of the Earth, forming the thermosphere and exosphere through which these satellites orbit. Concerning the dynamo, we discuss some recent novel approaches towards its understanding. For solar predictions we concentrate on a solar precursor method, in which the Sun s polar field plays a major role in forecasting the next cycle s activity based upon the Babcock- Leighton dynamo. With a current low value for the Sun s polar field, this method predicts that solar cycle #24 will be one of the lowest in recent times, with smoothed F10.7 radio flux values peaking near 130+ 30 (2 4, in the 2013 timeframe. One may have to consider solar activity as far back as the early 20th century to find a cycle of comparable magnitude. Concomitant effects of low solar activity upon satellites in LEO will need to be considered, such as enhancements in orbital debris. Support for our prediction of a low solar cycle #24 is borne out by the lack of new cycle sunspots at least through the first half of 2007. Usually at the present epoch in the solar cycle (-7+ years after the last solar maximum), for a normal size following cycle, new cycle sunspots would be seen. The lack of their appearance at this time is only consistent with a low cycle #24. Polar field observations of a weak magnitude are consistent with unusual structures seen in the Sun s corona. Polar coronal holes are the hallmarks of the Sun s open field structures. At present, it appears that the polar coronal holes are relatively weak, and there have been many equatorial coronal holes. This appears consistent with a weakening polar field, but coronal hole data must be scrutinized carefully as observing techniques have changed. We also discuss new solar dynamo ideas, and the SODA (Solar Dynamo Amplitude) index, which provides the user with the ability to track the Sun s hidden, dynamo magnetic fields throughout the various stages of the Sun s cycle. Our solar dynamo ideas are a modernization and rejuvenation of the Babcock-Leighton original idea of a shallow solar dynamo, using modem observations that appear to support their shallow dynamo viewpoint. We are in awe of being able to see an object the size of the Sun undergoing as dramatic a change as our model provides in a few short years. The Sun, however, has undergone changes as rapid as this before! The weather on the Sun is at least as fickle as the weather on the Earth.

Pesnell, W. Dean↗

Solar Cycle #24 and the Solar Dynamo

We focus on two solar aspects related to flight dynamics. These are the solar dynamo and long-term solar activity predictions. The nature of the solar dynamo is central to solar activity predictions, and these predictions are important for orbital planning of satellites in low earth orbit (LEO). The reason is that the solar ultraviolet (UV) and extreme ultraviolet (EUV) spectral irradiances inflate the upper atmospheric layers of the Earth, forming the thermosphere and exosphere through which these satellites orbit. Concerning the dynamo, we discuss some recent novel approaches towards its understanding. For solar predictions we concentrate on a solar precursor method, in which the Sun's polar field plays a major role in forecasting the next cycle s activity based upon the Babcock-Leighton dynamo. With a current low value for the Sun s polar field, this method predicts that solar cycle #24 will be one of the lowest in recent times, with smoothed F10.7 radio flux values peaking near 130 plus or minus 30 (2 sigma), in the 2013 timeframe. One may have to consider solar activity as far back as the early 20th century to find a cycle of comparable magnitude. Concomitant effects of low solar activity upon satellites in LEO will need to be considered, such as enhancements in orbital debris. Support for our prediction of a low solar cycle #24 is borne out by the lack of new cycle sunspots at least through the first half of 2007. Usually at the present epoch in the solar cycle (approx. 7+ years after the last solar maximum), for a normal size following cycle, new cycle sunspots would be seen. The lack of their appearance at this time is only consistent with a low cycle #24. Polar field observations of a weak magnitude are consistent with unusual structures seen in the Sun s corona. Polar coronal holes are the hallmarks of the Sun's open field structures. At present, it appears that the polar coronal holes are relatively weak, and there have been many equatorial coronal holes. This appears consistent with a weakening polar field, but coronal hole data must be scrutinized carefully as observing techniques have changed. We also discuss new solar dynamo ideas, and the SODA (SOlar Dynamo Amplitude) index, which provides the user with the ability to track the Sun's hidden, dynamo magnetic fields throughout the various stages of the Sun's cycle. Our solar dynamo ideas are a modernization and rejuvenation of the Babcock-Leighton original idea of a shallow solar dynamo, using modern observations that appear to support their shallow dynamo viewpoint. We are in awe of being able to see an object the size of the Sun undergoing as dramatic a change as our model provides in a few short years. The Sun, however, has undergone changes as rapid as this before! The weather on the Sun is at least as fickle as the weather on the Earth.

Schatten, Kenneth↗