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NASA NTRS2018

GRACE-Assimilated Drought Indicators for the U.S. Drought Monitor

The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission detects changes in Earth's gravity field by precisely monitoring the changes in distance between two satellites orbiting the Earth in tandem. Scientists at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center generate GRACE-assimilated groundwater and soil moisture drought indicators each week, for drought monitor-related studies and applications. The GRACE-assimilated Drought Indicator Version 2.0 data product (GRACE-DA-DM V2.0) is archived at, and distributed by, the NASA GES DISC (Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center). More information about the data and data access is available on the data product landing page at https://disc.gsfc.nasa.gov/datasets /GRACEDADM_CLSM0125US_7D_2.0/summary. The GRACE-DA-DM V2.0 data product contains three drought indicators: Groundwater Percentile, Root Zone Soil Moisture Percentile, and Surface Soil Moisture Percentile. The drought indicators are of wet or dry conditions, expressed as a percentile, indicating the probability of occurrence within the period of record from 1948 to 2012. These GRACE-assimilated drought indicators, with improved spatial and temporal resolutions, should provide a more comprehensive and objective identification of drought conditions. This presentation describes the basic characteristics of the data and data services at NASA GES DISC and collaborative organizations, and uses a few examples to demonstrate the simple ways to explore the GRACE-assimilated drought indicator data.

hydrology↗

NASA NTRS2021

Three-dimensional estimation of deciduous forest canopy structure and leaf area using multi-directional, leaf-on and leaf-off airborne lidar data

Airborne laser scanning (ALS) has been widely used to map gap probability and leaf area index (LAI) distribution at plot and landscape scales. As an indirect measurement, most ALS methods to estimate LAI combine waveform or point density information with supporting field measurements such as the leaf angle distribution, gap probability, or direct LAI measures. The development of a more independent estimation approach would facilitate more widespread use of existing ALS data to investigate patterns of forest structure and build realistic 3-D vegetation scenes to simulate remote sensing imagery and energy balance. Here, we develop a data processing workflow (named PVlad) using ALS point cloud apparent reflectance to estimate LAI and voxel-based leaf area density (LAD), aiming to reduce the need for associated field measurements such as the gap probability. The adaptation of the path volume (PV) concept derived from apparent reflectance integrates information from multi-directional ALS pulses, and quantifies the percentage exploration of each voxel for classification and occlusion correction, such that rigorous volumetric sampling approaches can be developed to derive LAI and LAD. The PVlad workflow was applied to discrete-return lidar data (Riegl VQ480i) acquired by NASA Goddard's LiDAR, Hyperspectral and Thermal Imager (G-LiHT) Airborne Imager during leaf-on (summer) and leaf-off (spring) conditions at the Smithsonian Environmental Research Center (SERC). The estimates of LAI and LAD captured structural differences between mature, logged, and intermediate-aged stands over eight deciduous forest plots. The derived LAI values were compared to field litter collection measurements, and the derived LAD vertical distribution was compared to the output of the VoxLAD model using terrestrial laser scan (TLS) field survey data. Using voxel sizes ranging from 0.5 m to 5 m, overall LAI estimation showed linear fitting coefficient bias and for 1 and 2 m voxel sizes, and vertical LAD distribution showed strong correlation with and for 0.5 and 1m voxel sizes. For every forest stand, upper-canopy LAD had a low variance for voxel sizes of ≤ . Application of PVlad to the G-LiHT and other similar ALS data archives enables the development of fine-resolution LAI map products, including voxelization of LAD for ecosystem science and radiative transfer simulations of remote sensing imagery or surface energy balance.

Tiangang Yin↗

DOE OSTI2024

Identifiability and characterization of transmon qutrits through Bayesian experimental design

Robust control of a quantum system is essential to utilize the current noisy quantum hardware to its full potential, such as quantum algorithms. To achieve such a goal, a systematic search for an optimal control for any given experiment is essential. The design of optimal control pulses requires accurate numerical models and, therefore, accurate characterization of the system parameters. We present an online Bayesian approach for quantum characterization of qutrit systems, which automatically and systematically identifies optimal experiments that provide maximum information on the system parameters, thereby greatly reducing the number of experiments that need to be performed on the quantum testbed. Unlike most characterization protocols that provide point-estimates of the parameters, the proposed approach is able to estimate their probability distribution. The applicability of the Bayesian experimental design technique was demonstrated on test problems, where each experiment was defined by a parameterized control pulse. In addition to this, we also present an approach for iterative pulse extension, which is robust under uncertainties in transition frequencies and coherence times, and shot noise, despite being initialized with wide uninformative priors. Furthermore, we provide a mathematical proof of the theoretical identifiability of the model parameters and present conditions on the quantum state under which the parameters are identifiable. The proof and conditions for identifiability are presented for both closed and open quantum systems using the Schrödinger equation and the Lindblad master equation, respectively.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Generalized master equation for particle transport in binary random media with renewal statistics

Particle transport in binary stochastic mixtures is classically modeled assuming Markovian or exponential mixing statistics but in many applications material memory invalidates the Markov assumption. For non-Markovian mixing characterized by alternating renewal processes, a transport-theoretic framework is presented that provides an exact description of transport in nonscattering random binary media with general non-exponential statistics. Our approach is to Markovianize the problem by augmenting the {material type, particle flux} state space with the age or distance from the last interface. A Chapman-Kolmogorov equation is formulated for the joint probability density of the material type, particle flux, and age, and subsequently reduced to a generalized Master equation (GME) in differential form. This constitutes the primary result of this work. A state-updating Monte Carlo algorithm consistent with the GME is developed and benchmarked against analytical solutions for multiple chord-length laws. For purely absorbing renewal statistical media, the GME reproduces analytical benchmarks for the equilibrium age distribution, interior mean/variance of material-conditioned fluxes, and boundary transmittance. Simulations further demonstrate that a Markov (exponential) approximation of non-exponential statistics can introduce large errors in transmittance and interior flux profiles. Lastly, the reintroduction of memory due to scattering is briefly addressed through heuristic considerations.

Fluctuations & noise↗

NASA NTRS1990

Computer simulation in template-directed oligonucleotide synthesis

It is commonly assumed that template-directed polymerizations have played a key role in prebiotic evolution. A computer simulation that models up to 33 competing reactions was used to investigate the product distribution in a template-directed oligonucleotide synthesis as a function of time and concentration of the reactants. The study focuses on the poly(C)-directed elongation reaction of oligoguanylates, and how it is affected by the competing processes of hydrolysis and dimerization of the activated monomer, which have the potential of severely curtailing the elongation and reducing the size and yield of the synthesized polymers. The simulations show that realistic and probably prebiotically plausible conditions can be found where hydrolysis and dimerization are either negligible or where a high degree of polymerization can be attained even in the face of substantial hydrolysis and/or dimerization.

Kanavarioti, Anastassia↗

NASA NTRS2010

Analytic Development of a Reference Profile for the First Entry in a Skip Atmospheric Entry

This note shows that a feasible reference drag profile for the first entry portion of a skip entry can be generated as a polynomial expression of the velocity. The coefficients of that polynomial are found through the resolution of a system composed of m + 1 equations, where m is the degree of the drag polynomial. It has been shown that a minimum of five equations (m = 4) are required to establish the range and the initial and final conditions on velocity and flight path angle. It has been shown that at least one constraint on the trajectory can be imposed through the addition of one extra equation in the system, which must be accompanied by the increase in the degree of the drag polynomial. In order to simplify the resolution of the system of equations, the drag was considered as being a probability density function of the velocity, with the velocity as a distribution function of the drag. Combining this notion with the introduction of empirically derived constants, it has been shown that the system of equations required to generate the drag profile can be successfully reduced to a system of linear algebraic equations. For completeness, the resulting drag profiles have been flown using the feedback linearization method of differential geometric control as a guidance law with the error dynamics of a second order homogeneous equation in the form of a damped oscillator. Satisfactory results were achieved when the gains in the error dynamics were changed at a certain point along the trajectory that is dependent on the velocity and the curvature of the drag as a function of the velocity. Future work should study the capacity to update the drag profile in flight when dispersions are introduced. Also, future studies should attempt to link the first entry, as presented and controlled in this note, with a more standard control concept for the second entry, such as the Apollo entry guidance, to try to assess the overall skip entry performance. A guidance law that includes an integral feedback term, as is the case in the actual Space Shuttle entry guidance and as is proposed in Ref 29, could be tried in future studies to assess whether its use results in an improvement of the tracking performance, and to evaluate the design needs when determining the control gains.

Garcia-Llama, Eduardo↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating design safety margins in the American Society of Mechanical Engineers graphite core components design-by-analysis assessments

Graphite is an important material being used for core components in next-generation high-temperature gas-cooled nuclear reactors. The selection of graphite grade for a specific Designer is a complex task, dependent on reactor conditions, component functionality, and required reliability. The American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) provides two semi-probabilistic design-by-analysis assessments to evaluate graphite core components against design reliability targets. The simplified assessment uses a 2-parameter Weibull distribution to describe the graphite grade’s tensile-strength distribution to establish component stress limits. The full assessment uses the 3-parameter Weibull distribution and a modified Weakest-Link Theory approach to calculate a component design probability of failure. The paper defines recommended assessment rules, which are the as-written simplified assessment and the full assessment with parameter lower bounds, the modulus update with threshold reduction, and the 2027 grouping rules. Code rules are applied to three grades: 2114, IG-110, and NBG-18. The baseline margin calculation is developed using the experimental tensile dogbone specimen. Percent margin is defined as the percent reduction in the median experimental load to obtain the allowable load per ASME assessments. Under the recommended rules, the SRC–1 margin in the simplified assessment ranged from 40.2 % to 52.7 % among the grades in this study and from 36.1 % to 49.8 % in the full assessment. The full assessment only decreases the margins by 2.5–4.5 % for the SRC-1 components and 0–1.5 % for the SRC-2 components for this baseline case. Margin is inversely related to material median strength (i.e., the strongest grade, 2114, has the lowest margin).

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

NASA NTRS2004

Probabilistic Analysis of a SiC/SiC Ceramic Matrix Composite Turbine Vane

To demonstrate the advanced composite materials technology under development within the Ultra-Efficient Engine Technology (UEET) Program, it was planned to fabricate, test, and analyze a turbine vane made entirely of silicon carbide-fiber-reinforced silicon carbide matrix composite (SiC/SiC CMC) material. The objective was to utilize a five-harness satin weave melt-infiltrated (MI) SiC/SiC composite material developed under this program to design and fabricate a stator vane that can endure 1000 hours of engine service conditions. The vane was designed such that the expected maximum stresses were kept within the proportional limit strength of the material. Any violation of this design requirement was considered as the failure. This report presents results of a probabilistic analysis and reliability assessment of the vane. Probability of failure to meet the design requirements was computed. In the analysis, material properties, strength, and pressure loading were considered as random variables. The pressure loads were considered normally distributed with a nominal variation. A temperature profile on the vane was obtained by performing a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis and was assumed to be deterministic. The results suggest that for the current vane design, the chance of not meeting design requirements is about 1.6 percent.

Murthy, Pappu L. N.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Bootstrap Prediction Intervals in Non-Parametric Regression with Applications to Anomaly Detection

Prediction intervals provide a measure of the probable interval in which the outputs of a regression model can be expected to occur. Subsequently, these prediction intervals can be used to determine if the observed output is anomalous or not, conditioned on the input. In this paper, a procedure for determining prediction intervals for outputs of nonparametric regression models using bootstrap methods is proposed. Bootstrap methods allow for a non-parametric approach to computing prediction intervals with no specific assumptions about the sampling distribution of the noise or the data. The asymptotic fidelity of the proposed prediction intervals is theoretically proved. Subsequently, the validity of the bootstrap based prediction intervals is illustrated via simulations. Finally, the bootstrap prediction intervals are applied to the problem of anomaly detection on aviation data.

Kumar, Sricharan↗

NASA NTRS1975

Stochastic control system parameter identifiability

The parameter identification problem of general discrete time, nonlinear, multiple input/multiple output dynamic systems with Gaussian white distributed measurement errors is considered. The knowledge of the system parameterization was assumed to be known. Concepts of local parameter identifiability and local constrained maximum likelihood parameter identifiability were established. A set of sufficient conditions for the existence of a region of parameter identifiability was derived. A computation procedure employing interval arithmetic was provided for finding the regions of parameter identifiability. If the vector of the true parameters is locally constrained maximum likelihood (CML) identifiable, then with probability one, the vector of true parameters is a unique maximal point of the maximum likelihood function in the region of parameter identifiability and the constrained maximum likelihood estimation sequence will converge to the vector of true parameters.

Lee, C. H.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Flexible radiator thermal vacuum test report

Two flexible, deployable/retraction radiators were designed and fabricated. The two radiator panels are distinguishable by their mission life design. One panel is designed with a 90 percent probability of withstanding the micrometeoroid environment of a low earth orbit for 30 days. This panel is designated the soft tube radiator after the PFA Teflon tubes which distribute the transport fluid over the panel. The second panel is designed with armored flow tubes to withstand the same micrometeoroid environment for 5 years. It is designated the hard tube radiator after its stainless steel flow tubes. The thermal performance of the radiators was tested under anticipated environmental conditions. The two deployment systems of the radiators were evaluated in a thermal vacuum environment.

Oren, J. A.↗

NASA NTRS1994

An error covariance model for sea surface topography and velocity derived from TOPEX/POSEIDON altimetry

In order to facilitate the use of satellite-derived sea surface topography and velocity oceanographic models, methodology is presented for deriving the total error covariance and its geographic distribution from TOPEX/POSEIDON measurements. The model is formulated using a parametric model fit to the altimeter range observations. The topography and velocity modeled with spherical harmonic expansions whose coefficients are found through optimal adjustment to the altimeter range residuals using Bayesian statistics. All other parameters, including the orbit, geoid, surface models, and range corrections are provided as unadjusted parameters. The maximum likelihood estimates and errors are derived from the probability density function of the altimeter range residuals conditioned with a priori information. Estimates of model errors for the unadjusted parameters are obtained from the TOPEX/POSEIDON postlaunch verification results and the error covariances for the orbit and the geoid, except for the ocean tides. The error in the ocean tides is modeled, first, as the difference between two global tide models and, second, as the correction to the present tide model, the correction derived from the TOPEX/POSEIDON data. A formal error covariance propagation scheme is used to derive the total error. Our global total error estimate for the TOPEX/POSEIDON topography relative to the geoid for one 10-day period is found tio be 11 cm RMS. When the error in the geoid is removed, thereby providing an estimate of the time dependent error, the uncertainty in the topography is 3.5 cm root mean square (RMS). This level of accuracy is consistent with direct comparisons of TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter heights with tide gauge measurements at 28 stations. In addition, the error correlation length scales are derived globally in both east-west and north-south directions, which should prove useful for data assimilation. The largest error correlation length scales are found in the tropics. Errors in the velocity field are smallest in midlatitude regions. For both variables the largest errors caused by uncertainty in the geoid. More accurate representations of the geoid await a dedicated geopotential satellite mission. Substantial improvements in the accuracy of ocean tide models are expected in the very near future from research with TOPEX/POSEIDON data.

Tsaoussi, Lucia S.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Supersaturation, Nucleation, and Phase Separation of Mesoscopic Systems

Supersaturation, nucleation, and phase separation are ubiquitous phenomena of great interest in both science and industry. However, a unified, quantitative understanding of these phenomena has yet to be achieved for mesoscopic systems. Here, we present a set of general equations that determine the monomer saturation degree, the size distribution, and the free energy of mesoscopic systems, as well as their phase-transition conditions. These equations reveal that, under supersaturation, the largest cluster size (LCS) is an important state variable; the supersaturation degree decreases with the LCS, approaching unity in the macroscopic limit. We identify the critical supersaturation, at which the nuclei undergo the phase transition to form large crystals. Below this critical supersaturation, the nucleus size distribution is either a unimodal function or a monotonically decreasing function of size, depending on the system and temperature. We also predict the most probable nucleus size and the direction of spontaneous changes of the LCS. Our theory provides a unified, quantitative explanation of the nucleus-size-distribution across six different systems, including nanoparticles and biological condensates. This work serves as a general theoretical framework useful for understanding and designing nucleation and phase transitions of mesoscopic systems.

Kang, Jingyu↗

NASA NTRS1979

The reflection of impulses from a nonlinear random sea

A model of the reflection of radar impulses from the sea at near-vertical incidence is used to account for non-Gaussian ocean waves statistics. The joint probability density function (pdf), of wave height and slope, is calculated according to the theory of Longuet-Higgins (1963) on the distribution of variables in a 'weakly nonlinear' random era. The long-crested approximation is made, a Phillips wave spectrum is assumed, and the Gram-Charlier series is truncated after skewness terms. It is found that the height and height-slope skewness coefficients bear the ratio 1:2 and that the derived impulse response and conditional cross section versus wave height are in excellent agreement with previous observations. Finally, it is suggested that the empirically determined and theoretically predicted sea state bias be corrected for in the routine processing of satellite radar altimeter data.

Jackson, F. C.↗

NASA NTRS1991

An autonomous fault detection, isolation, and recovery system for a 20-kHz electric power distribution test bed

Future space explorations will require long term human presence in space. Space environments that provide working and living quarters for manned missions are becoming increasingly larger and more sophisticated. Monitor and control of the space environment subsystems by expert system software, which emulate human reasoning processes, could maintain the health of the subsystems and help reduce the human workload. The autonomous power expert (APEX) system was developed to emulate a human expert's reasoning processes used to diagnose fault conditions in the domain of space power distribution. APEX is a fault detection, isolation, and recovery (FDIR) system, capable of autonomous monitoring and control of the power distribution system. APEX consists of a knowledge base, a data base, an inference engine, and various support and interface software. APEX provides the user with an easy-to-use interactive interface. When a fault is detected, APEX will inform the user of the detection. The user can direct APEX to isolate the probable cause of the fault. Once a fault has been isolated, the user can ask APEX to justify its fault isolation and to recommend actions to correct the fault. APEX implementation and capabilities are discussed.

Quinn, Todd M.↗

NASA NTRS1991

A synthetic seismicity model for the Middle America Trench

A novel iterative technique, based on the concept of fault segmentation and computed using 2D static dislocation theory, for building models of seismicity and fault interaction which are physically acceptable and geometrically and kinematically correct, is presented. The technique is applied in two steps to seismicity observed at the Middle America Trench. The first constructs generic models which randomly draw segment strengths and lengths from a 2D probability distribution. The second constructs predictive models in which segment lengths and strengths are adjusted to mimic the actual geography and timing of large historical earthquakes. Both types of models reproduce the statistics of seismicity over five units of magnitude and duplicate other aspects including foreshock and aftershock sequences, migration of foci, and the capacity to produce both characteristic and noncharacteristic earthquakes. Over a period of about 150 yr the complex interaction of fault segments and the nonlinear failure conditions conspire to transform an apparently deterministic model into a chaotic one.

Ward, Steven N.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Some properties of a 5-parameter bivariate probability distribution

A five-parameter bivariate gamma distribution having two shape parameters, two location parameters and a correlation parameter was developed. This more general bivariate gamma distribution reduces to the known four-parameter distribution. The five-parameter distribution gives a better fit to the gust data. The statistical properties of this general bivariate gamma distribution and a hypothesis test were investigated. Although these developments have come too late in the Shuttle program to be used directly as design criteria for ascent wind gust loads, the new wind gust model has helped to explain the wind profile conditions which cause large dynamic loads. Other potential applications of the newly developed five-parameter bivariate gamma distribution are in the areas of reliability theory, signal noise, and vibration mechanics.

Tubbs, J. D.↗

NASA NTRS1972

Statistical analysis of landing contact conditions for three lifting body research vehicles

The landing contact conditions for the HL-10, M2-F2/F3, and the X-24A lifting body vehicles are analyzed statistically for 81 landings. The landing contact parameters analyzed are true airspeed, peak normal acceleration at the center of gravity, roll angle, and roll velocity. Ground measurement parameters analyzed are lateral and longitudinal distance from intended touchdown, lateral distance from touchdown to full stop, and rollout distance. The results are presented in the form of histograms for frequency distributions and cumulative frequency distribution probability curves with a Pearson Type 3 curve fit for extrapolation purposes.

Larson, R. R.↗