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At least 253 records · Page 14

Defending the Homeland: Growing Foreign Challenges to the U.S. Missile Defense Posture

The Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD) for Policy requested that Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory conduct a Congressionally directed study on homeland missile defense, pursuant to Section 1692 of the fiscal year 2020 National Defense Authorization Act. In accordance with the statutory language, this study considers whether the security benefits obtained by deployment of homeland missile defenses of the United States are undermined or counterbalanced by adverse reactions of potential adversaries, and considers the effectiveness of homeland missile defense efforts of the United States to deter the development of ballistic missiles. Almost a half-century has elapsed since the United States and the Soviet Union signed the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty, and almost two decades since the former withdrew. Since withdrawing, the United States has sought to develop and deploy a layered missile defense system to defend against regional threats to U.S. and allied interests abroad and to counter limited threats to the U.S. homeland. As such, missile defense supports key national defense policy objectives. Protecting the U.S. homeland, forces abroad, allies, and partners. Deterring attacks against the United States, its allies, and partners. Assuring allies an strengthening U.S. diplomatic activities in peacetime and crisis. We offer five key findings: 1. The primary benefit of the Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD) system is the protection it provides the U.S. homeland against a limited but evolving rogue-state missile threat. While this system has never been tested in combat, it appears thus far to have effectively paced North Korea’s development and deployment of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). In the absence of such a defensive capability, the United States would likely have been more heavily exposed to North Korean actions, would have operated at a much higher-risk posture, and would have had less negotiating room with which to navigate coercive tactics and crises. Its allies would have been more concerned about U.S. willingness in time of crisis and war to run the risks of protecting them. The GMD system also serves as a hedge against Iranian breakout. 2. Potential adversaries continue to develop long-range ballistic missiles despite deployment of a U.S. homeland missile defense system. This includes both rogue states and major power rivals whose long-range missile programs predated the deployment of U.S. missile defenses. While North Korea has continued its long-range missile developments and achieved an intercontinental capability, Iran has not yet reached this threshold. The broader proliferation of long-range missiles anticipated in the late 1990s has not materialized. 3. While Russia has used the existence of a U.S. homeland missile defense system as a justification for its substantial and continuing weapon modernization program, neither Russian force modernization nor the limited U.S. homeland missile defense system has altered the strategic balance. Russia has long considered U.S. missile defenses—both theater and homeland—as directed against its strategic forces and as a capability that could rapidly advance, thereby eroding Russian confidence in its nuclear deterrent. Russia’s political and military actions appear excessive and negatively impact areas such as arms control, but they do not undermine the primary benefit of the U.S. system cited in Key Finding 1. 4. China’s expansion and diversification of nuclear and missile forces has been influenced by its concerns about U.S. homeland missile defense, but those concerns are only one of many factors in China’s force planning. Although China’s actions to preserve and expand its assured retaliation prospects have not fundamentally altered the strategic balance, its buildup and lack of transparency about its force modernization goals are troubling. Taken together, the aggregate pattern of China’s modernization activities over the past two decades strongly suggests a concerted effort to develop a modern military force commensurate with its intended geopolitical status. Whatever China’s legacy concerns over the survivability of its strategic nuclear forces, its ability to overwhelm the GMD system appears intact today and will be further strengthened in the years ahead as it continues its long-term modernization program. China’s political and military actions negatively affect U.S. security interests but do not undermine the primary benefit of the U.S. system cited in Key Finding 1. 5. The basic finding that benefits have not so far been undermined by adverse reactions is a function of circumstances that are increasingly in flux. The existing GMD-centered system is under increasing pressure from the pace and scope of North Korean missile deployments. The proposed “layered” system seeks to mitigate this impending capability gap in the near term and to complement future capabilities, such as the Next Generation Interceptor, when they come online. Given the pace of U.S. missile defense developments since 2000, it is possible that adversary advances in capability will outpace the U.S. system’s ability to adapt. Additionally, because this layered system is in principle more readily scaled, it will almost certainly be viewed skeptically by China and Russia. In a context of growing great-power security competition, the Department of Defense (DoD) should consider undertaking a broader net assessment of the U.S., Russian, and Chinese force balance.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Mechanical Design of High Lift Systems for High Aspect Ratio Swept Wings

The NASA Ames Research Center is working to develop a methodology for the optimization and design of the high lift system for future subsonic airliners with the involvement of two partners. Aerodynamic analysis methods for two dimensional and three dimensional wing performance with flaps and slats deployed are being developed through a grant with the aeronautical department of the University of California Davis, and a flap and slat mechanism design procedure is being developed through a contract with PKCR, Inc., of Seattle, WA. This report documents the work that has been completed in the contract with PKCR on mechanism design. Flap mechanism designs have been completed for seven (7) different mechanisms with a total of twelve (12) different layouts all for a common single slotted flap configuration. The seven mechanisms are as follows: Simple Hinge, Upside Down/Upright Four Bar Linkage (two layouts), Upside Down Four Bar Linkages (three versions), Airbus A330/340 Link/Track Mechanism, Airbus A320 Link/Track Mechanism (two layouts), Boeing Link/Track Mechanism (two layouts), and Boeing 767 Hinged Beam Four Bar Linkage. In addition, a single layout has been made to investigate the growth potential from a single slotted flap to a vane/main double slotted flap using the Boeing Link/Track Mechanism. All layouts show Fowler motion and gap progression of the flap from stowed to a fully deployed position, and evaluations based on spanwise continuity, fairing size and number, complexity, reliability and maintainability and weight as well as Fowler motion and gap progression are presented. For slat design, the options have been limited to mechanisms for a shallow leading edge slat. Three (3) different layouts are presented for maximum slat angles of 20 deg, 15 deg and 1O deg all mechanized with a rack and pinion drive similar to that on the Boeing 757 airplane. Based on the work of Ljungstroem in Sweden, this type of slat design appears to shift the lift curve so that higher lift is achieved with the deployed slat with no increase in angle of attack. The layouts demonstrate that these slat systems can be designed with no need for slave links, and an experimental test program is outlined to experimentally validate the lift characteristics of the shallow slat.

Rudolph, Peter K. C.↗

International Space Weather Initiative (ISWI)

The International Heliophysical Year (IHY), an international program of scientific collaboration to understand the external drivers of planetary environments, has come to an end. The IHY was a major international event of great interest to the member States, which involved the deployment of new instrumentation, new observations from the ground and in space, and an education component. We propose to continue the highly successful collaboration between the heliophysics science community and the United Nations Basic Space Science (UNBSS) program. One of the major thrust of the IHY was to deploy arrays of small instruments such as magnetometers, radio antennas, GPS receivers, all-sky cameras, particle detectors, etc. around the world to provide global measurements of heliospheric phenomena. The United Nations Basic Space Science Initiative (UNBSSI) played a major role in this effort. Scientific teams were organized through UNBSS, which consisted of a lead scientist who provided the instruments or fabrication plans for instruments in the array. As a result of the this program, scientists from UNBSS member states now participate in the instrument operation, data collection, analysis, and publication of scientific results, working at the forefront of science research. As part of this project, support for local scientists, facilities and data acquisition is provided by the host nation. In addition, support at the Government level is provided for local scientists to participate. Building on momentum of the IHY, we propose to continue the highly successful collaboration with the UNBSS program to continue the study of universal processes in the solar system that affect the interplanetary and terrestrial environments, and to continue to coordinate the deployment and operation of new and existing instrument arrays aimed at understanding the impacts of Space Weather on Earth and the near-Earth environment. Toward this end, we propose a new program, the International Space Weather Initiative (ISWI).

Davila, Joseph M.↗

International Space Weather Initiative (ISWI)

The International Heliophysical Year (IHY), an international program of scientific collaboration to understand the external drivers of planetary environments, has come to an end. The IHY was a major international event of great interest to the member States, which involved the deployment of new instrumentation, new observations from the ground and in space, and an education component. We propose to continue the highly successful collaboration between the heliophysics science community and the United Nations Basic Space Science (UNBSS) program. One of the major thrust of the IHY was to deploy arrays of small instruments such as magnetometers, radio antennas, GPS receivers, all-sky cameras, particle detectors, etc. around the world to provide global measurements of heliospheric phenomena. The United Nations Basic Space Science Initiative (UNBSSI) played a major role in this effort. Scientific teams were organized through UNBSS, which consisted of a lead scientist who provided the instruments or fabrication plans for instruments in the array. As a result of the this program, scientists from UNBSS member states now participate in the instrument operation, data collection, analysis, and publication of scientific results, working at the forefront of science research. As part of this project, support for local scientists, facilities and data acquisition is provided by the host nation. In addition, support at the Government level is provided for local scientists to participate. Building on momentum of the IHY, we propose to continue the highly successful collaboration with the UNBSS program to continue the study of universal processes in the solar system that affect the interplanetary and terrestrial environments, and to continue to coordinate the deployment and operation of new and existing instrument arrays aimed at understanding the impacts of Space Weather on Earth and the near-Earth environment. Toward this end, we propose a new program, the International Space Weather Initiative (ISWI).

Davila, Joseph↗

Crewed Mars Mission Mode Options for Nuclear Electric/Chemical Hybrid Transportation System

NASA's Human Exploration and Operation Mission Directorate is continuing to study different concepts and options to field human Mars missions as part of NASA's Moon2Mars directive. For crewed missions to Mars, the transportation system sizing is highly dependent on the total mission duration, Mars orbit dwell time, mission concept of operations, and the chosen propulsion system. NASA has been investigating the use of low-thrust electric propulsion systems to augment high-thrust chemical propulsion system for crewed Mars mission to enable a more energy-efficient operations. Recent studies on these missions have focused on ``All-Up'' piloted mission modes in which the in-space transportation system for crew transit departs Earth with everything it needs for the roundtrip journey, with only the Mars landers and surface assets pre-deployed. This design choice was made to minimize the mission operation risk, as the crew could return safely to Earth in the event of a failure to rendezvous or other failure of any pre-deployed assets. As the Mars Architecture Team continues to investigate and understand the Mars mission trade space, alternate mission mode studies were conducted to understand their impact to the transportation system. These include pre-positioning return assets and discarding expended stages to reduce the overall system mass.

Patrick R Chai↗

Field Validation of Cloud Properties Sensor (SAIL Field Campaign Report)

The purpose of the Field Validation of Cloud Properties Sensor – SAIL campaign was to deploy Aerodyne’s extended-wavelength TWST cloud optical properties sensor (TWST-CPS) in an operationally relevant environment with co-located, externally validated sensors. Colocation with The U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility’s deployment of its second Mobile Facility (AMF2) on the Surface Atmosphere Integrated Field Laboratory (SAIL) campaign at Crested Butte, Colorado was ideal because of the variety of operational sensors that can measure some of the same cloud properties using different modalities. While cloud property sensors have long existed, they tend to be costly to produce and maintain. Our sensor measures absolute spectral radiance over 440-1700 nm and retrieves cloud optical depth (COD), droplet effective radius (Reff), and thermodynamic phase (Phase). Our prototype is built predominantly from off-the-shelf components and uses uncooled spectrometers. A low-cost, easy-to-use sensor such as this could allow deployment at many more sites for greater spatial coverage. Instrument deployment to test robust operations and a new stray-light baffle design, and the continued development of analysis and retrieval algorithms using the data from this deployment, are central technical objectives of Aerodyne Research’s U.S. Department of Energy Small Business Innovative Research Phase 2 contract (DE-SC0020473, Low-cost shortwave spectroradiometer for retrieval of cloud properties).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Field Validation of Cloud Properties Sensor – SAIL Field Campaign Report

The purpose of the Field Validation of Cloud Properties Sensor – SAIL campaign was to deploy Aerodyne’s extended-wavelength TWST cloud optical properties sensor (TWST-CPS) in an operationally relevant environment with co-located, externally validated sensors. Colocation with The U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility’s deployment of its second Mobile Facility (AMF2) on the Surface Atmosphere Integrated Field Laboratory (SAIL) campaign at Crested Butte, Colorado was ideal because of the variety of operational sensors that can measure some of the same cloud properties using different modalities. While cloud property sensors have long existed, they tend to be costly to produce and maintain. Our sensor measures absolute spectral radiance over 440-1700 nm and retrieves cloud optical depth (COD), droplet effective radius (Reff), and thermodynamic phase (Phase). Our prototype is built predominantly from off-the-shelf components and uses uncooled spectrometers. A low-cost, easy-to-use sensor such as this could allow deployment at many more sites for greater spatial coverage. Instrument deployment to test robust operations and a new stray-light baffle design, and the continued development of analysis and retrieval algorithms using the data from this deployment, are central technical objectives of Aerodyne Research’s U.S. Department of Energy Small Business Innovative Research Phase 2 contract (DE-SC0020473, Low-cost shortwave spectroradiometer for retrieval of cloud properties).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Compositionally-Graded Shape Memory Film for Self-Deployment of Membrane Reflectors and Optics

The next generation of space systems will require large apertures in order to image faint targets or cover large areas of Earth. These large apertures must be able to fit inside a launch vehicle fairing, be light enough for launch into orbit, and deploy on orbit with repeatability and reliability. The current state-of-the-art in flight optics is represented by the 4 meter LAMP telescope, with an areal density of 10 km sq m. Development of a Beryllium mirror demonstration article for NGST (Next Generation Space Telescope) at the University of Arizona indicate areal densities of 0.5 kg sq m with flight hardware in the 12 meter range. With progressive improvements in existing deployment, packaging, and structural technologies, the size of optics and reflectors will continue to increase, while mass is reduced. However, without a breakthrough in materials, packaging and/or deployment technologies, the goal for Gossamer structures of 0.1 kg sq m is unachievable for the near and mid-term NASA missions. Membrane technology provides the best hope of achieving such low areal densities. In combination with advances in membrane materials and structures, development of revolutionary techniques for deployment systems can provide significant improvements in large aperture technology. In this paper, the results of a six-month Phase I research effort to demonstrate the application of thin film NiTi to aerospace-qualified membrane and mesh materials are presented. Deposition of shape memory thin film was achieved Astromesh (trademark) metal mesh and CP-1, and optical-quality polymer membrane. Not only was full-coating deposition demonstrated, but also small segment deposition which holds potential for local surface control. Deployment of these materials was also demonstrated, setting the stage for the development of a larger test article.

Hill, Lisa↗

(abstract) Monitoring the Freeze/Thaw Transitions in Taiga Forests Using ERS-1 SAR

Automated recording stations have been installed at the Bonanza Creek Experimental Forest, a Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) site located near Fairbanks, Alaska, in a forest stand of the Tanana River floodplain underlain by discontinuous permafrost. These stations provide a continuous record of dielectric constant and temperature of tree trunks, and soil moisture and temperature profiles down to the root zone. Along with the weather stations deployed at the same location, these measurements provide a continuous record of the environmental and phenologic conditions of the forest during a complete seasonal cycle. At the same time, ERS-1 SAR imaged the study site repeatedly from space to provide radar backscatter measurements of the forest approximately three times a month. Here, we examine the temporal dynamic of ERS-1 SAR measurements in relation with the changing environmental and phenologic state of the forest canopy and of the forest ground layers during the winter/spring and fall/winter transitions of 1992 and 1993. During these transitions, we examine whether changes in radar backscatter observed by ERS-1 may be related to freezing or thawing of the soil and vegetation in order to determine the start and end of the growing season for the forest. The results of this analysis are used in turn to determine whether similar changes are observed over larger regions. Mosaics of SAR data generated along three different North-South Alaskan ERS-1 transects that intercept with our study site are used in combination with hourly air temperature and daily precipitation rates gathered at airport weather stations by the National Weather Service. Results obtained using ERS-1 data collected from January 1992 to mid-1993 will be discussed.

permafrost temporal dynamics Alaska ecology radar ↗

Characterizing Microbial Community and Geochemical Dynamics at Hydrothermal Vents Using Osmotically Driven Continuous Fluid Samplers

Microbes play a key role in mediating all aquatic biogeochemical cycles, and ongoing efforts are aimed at better understanding the relationships between microbial phylogenetic and physiological diversity, and habitat physical and chemical characteristics. Establishing such relationships is facilitated by sampling and studying microbiology and geochemistry at the appropriate spatial and temporal scales, to access information on the past and current environmental state that contributes to observed microbial abundances and activities. A modest number of sampling systems exist to date, few of which can be used in remote, harsh environments such as hydrothermal vents, where the ephemeral nature of venting underscores the necessity for higher resolution sampling. We have developed a robust, continuous fluid sampling system for co-registered microbial and biogeochemical analyses. The osmosis-powered bio-osmosampling system (BOSS) use no electricity, collects fluids with daily resolution or better, can be deployed in harsh, inaccessible environments and can sample fluids continuously for up to five years. Here we present a series of tests to examine DNA, RNA and protein stability over time, as well as material compatability, via lab experiments. We also conducted two field deployments at deep-sea hydrothermal vents to assess changes in microbial diversity and protein expression as a function of the physico-chemical environment. Our data reveal significant changes in microbial community composition co-occurring with relatively modest changes in the geochemistry. These data additionally provide new insights into the distribution of an enigmatic sulfur oxidizing symbiont in its free-living state. Data from the second deployment reveal differences in the representation of peptides over time, underscoring the utility of the BOSS in meta-proteomic studies. In concert, these data demonstrate the efficacy of this approach, and illustrate the value of using this method to study microbial and geochemical phenomena.

Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory↗

Identifying Vehicle Signals in Continuous Seismic Data Using Unsupervised Machine-Learning Techniques

Seismic sensors deployed near roadways effectively capture ground vibrations generated by passing vehicles. Although both traditional and machine‐learning algorithms have been utilized for analyzing such signals, independent validation of detected vehicle events remains limited. We applied two unsupervised machine‐learning algorithms, uniform manifold approximation and projection for dimension reduction, and hierarchical density‐based spatial clustering of applications with noise, to continuous seismic data collected along a road on the main campus of Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The algorithms identified seven distinct cluster labels across the entire dataset. By comparing these cluster labels with precipitation records from a nearby weather station and image‐derived labels from a local camera system, we identified one cluster associated with rainfall and another with vehicle activity. Our algorithms identified a greater number of vehicle‐related labels compared to the camera‐derived labels because seismic data are unaffected by poor lighting conditions. The arrival times of the newly detected vehicle signals corresponded well with the road’s speed limit, supporting our findings. Our algorithm outperformed the short‐term average/long‐term average method and k‐means clustering. Our results suggest that seismic data, when analyzed with machine‐learning algorithms, can complement existing vehicle monitoring systems, particularly under challenging environmental conditions.

Chai, Chengping [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (OR↗

Clean Energy Technologies for Economic Development at Global and Community Scales

Energy systems in communities across the world are undergoing fundamental transformations. Electricity and heat production is becoming cleaner and more distributed, driven by declining energy prices and higher technology efficiencies, as well as a desire to reduce environmental impact. The technologies that produce clean energy, such as solar photovoltaic panels, wind turbines, and lithium ion batteries for vehicles and storage, depend less on global fuel costs and more on costs for technology, manufacturing, and local resources. Therefore, innovations in manufacturing, systems integration, operations, and policies can reduce clean energy costs across all the links in the energy supply chain. The advanced and cleaner energy systems being deployed have resulted in communities gaining a greater role in creating and using energy from local resources, as well as increasing their participation in the value chain from research, manufacturing, and deployment. The clean energy trends are expected to continue and perhaps grow through expansion of clean energy technologies for industrial and transportation sectors, although there are many possible future scenarios due to the diversity of resources and societal objectives in different communities, countries, and regions. This presentation will summarize the status and potential futures of key clean energy technologies and their manufacturing and deployment, with discussion of opportunities for sustainable communities.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Sandia Capabilities for the Measurement, Characterization, and Analysis of Heliostats for CSP

The Concentrating Solar Technologies Organization at Sandia National Laboratories has a long history of performing important research, development, and testing that has enabled the Concentrating Solar Power Industry to deploy full-scale power plants. Sandia continues to pursue innovative CSP concepts with the goal of reducing the cost of CSP while improving efficiency and performance. In this pursuit, Sandia has developed many tools for the analysis of CSP performance. The following capabilities document highlights Sandia's extensive experience in the design, construction, and utilization of large-scale testing facilities for CSP and the tools that Sandia has created for the full characterization of heliostats. Sandia has extensive experience in using these tools to evaluate the performance of novel heliostat designs.

Andraka, Charles E.↗

Performance Evaluation of Darshan 3.0.0 on the Cray XC30

Abstract—Darshan is a lightweight I/O characterization tool used to gather and summarize salient I/O workload statistics from HPC applications. Darshan was designed to minimize any possible perturbations of an application’s performance, leading it to be enabled by default on a number of production HPC systems. For each file accessed by a given application, Darshan records the count and types of I/O operations performed, histograms of access sizes, cumulative timers on the amount of time spent doing I/O, and other statistical data. This type of data has proved invaluable in understanding and improving the I/O performance of HPC applications. Darshan 3.0.0 is the new modularized version of the traditional Darshan library and file format, allowing users to easily add more in-depth I/O characterization data to Darshan logs. In this work we perform an empirical evaluation of Darshan 3.0.0 to ensure that it continues to meet performance expectations for broad deployment. In particular, we evaluate the imposed overhead on instrumented I/O operations, time taken to shut down and generate corresponding Darshan log files, and resultant log file sizes for different workloads. These performance results are compared to results of Darshan 2.3.0 on the Edison XC30 system at NERSC to determine whether the new version is lightweight enough to run full-time on production HPC systems. Our evaluation shows that Darshan has limited impact on application I/O performance and can fully generate a corresponding log file for most application workloads in under two seconds.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Detection of Local/Regional Events in Kuwait Using Next-Generation Detection Algorithms

Seismic networks around the world use conventional triggering algorithms to detect seismic signals in order to locate local/regional seismic events. Kuwait National Seismological Network (KNSN) of Kuwait Institute of Scientific Research (KISR) is operating seven broad-band and short-period three-component stations in Kuwait. The network is equipped with Nanometrics digitizers and uses Antelope and Guralp acquisition software for processing and archiving the data. In this study, we selected 10 days of archived hourly-segmented continuous data of five stations (Figure 1) and 250 days of continuous recording at MIB. For the temporary deployment our selection criteria was based on KNSN catalog intensity for the period of time we test the method. An autonomous event detection and clustering framework is employed to test a more complete catalog of this short period of time. The goal is to illustrate the effectiveness of the technique and pursue the framework for longer period of time.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Interconnection, Integration, and Interactive Impact Analysis of Microgrids and Distribution Systems

Distribution management systems (DMSs) are increasingly used by distribution system operators (DSOs) to manage the distribution grid and to monitor the status of both power imported from the transmission grid and power generated locally by a distributed energy resource (DER), to ensure that power flows and voltages along the feeders are maintained within designed limits and that appropriate measures are taken to guarantee service continuity and energy security. When microgrids are deployed and interconnected to the distribution grids, they will have an impact on the operation of the distribution grid. The challenge is to design this interconnection in such a way that it enhances the reliability and security of the distribution grid and the loads embedded in the microgrid, while providing economic benefits to all stakeholders, including the microgrid owner and operator and the distribution system operator.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Grid-Scale Battery Storage: Frequently Asked Questions

As costs continue to decline, jurisdictions are seeking to deploy increasing levels of utility-scale battery energy storage. This Greening the Grid document provides system planners and regulators with fundamental information about battery energy storage including which services these devices are capable of, how these devices interact with renewable energy and what barriers exist to their broader deployment.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗