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DOE OSTI2022

Roadmap for Deployment of Modularized Hydrothermal Liquefaction: Understanding the Impacts of Industry Learning, Optimal Plant Scale, and Delivery Costs on Biofuel Pricing

Hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) is a promising technology for converting abundant organic wastes into fuels. Previous techno-economic analyses (TEAs) of HTL have been used to estimate the minimum fuel selling price (MFSP) of biofuel products, but these analyses often assume a bespoke plant design where each plant operates under unique process conditions and neglect transportation costs. However, transportation costs must be included in realistic TEAs, and further, a mass-produced fixed-scale modular plant design approach may be more effective than case-by-case plant design, provided that there is sufficient market capacity to benefit from modularization. This study estimates fuel price behavior in the presence of transportation costs and benefits stemming from modular plant design. This analysis indicates that a modular process capable of handling 60 dry tons per day (DTPD) is optimal, resulting in a ~25% reduction in MFSP (from $4.70/GGE, fully upgraded) at complete market feedstock utilization compared with case-by-case design. The associated cost reductions are attributable to learning benefits and modularization. Several HTL deployment “roadmaps” are then explored, with each roadmap consisting of different periods of case-by-case design followed by adoption of a modularized approach. A period of nonmodular industry growth up to market saturation of ~7% followed by implementation of modular plant design strikes a balance between the investment risk and learned cost reductions associated with modular plant design. However, if bespoke plants built during this period of nonmodular growth saturate more than 23% of available feedstock, learned cost reductions are significantly diminished. Here, this study points to the potential benefits of modularized and decentralized waste-to-energy processes when the modularization follows an optimal deployment strategy.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

NASA NTRS1992

National Launch System comparative economic analysis

Results are presented from an analysis of economic benefits (or losses), in the form of the life cycle cost savings, resulting from the development of the National Launch System (NLS) family of launch vehicles. The analysis was carried out by comparing various NLS-based architectures with the current Shuttle/Titan IV fleet. The basic methodology behind this NLS analysis was to develop a set of annual payload requirements for the Space Station Freedom and LEO, to design launch vehicle architectures around these requirements, and to perform life-cycle cost analyses on all of the architectures. A SEI requirement was included. Launch failure costs were estimated and combined with the relative reliability assumptions to measure the effects of losses. Based on the analysis, a Shuttle/NLS architecture evolving into a pressurized-logistics-carrier/NLS architecture appears to offer the best long-term cost benefit.

Prince, A.↗

NASA NTRS1972

Economic analysis of the space shuttle system, volume 1

An economic analysis of the space shuttle system is presented. The analysis is based on economic benefits, recurring costs, non-recurring costs, and ecomomic tradeoff functions. The most economic space shuttle configuration is determined on the basis of: (1) objectives of reusable space transportation system, (2) various space transportation systems considered and (3) alternative space shuttle systems.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2004

Space-Based Sensor Web for Earth Science Applications: An Integrated Architecture for Providing Societal Benefits

There is a significant interest in the Earth Science research and user remote sensing community to substantially increase the number of useful observations relative to the current frequency of collection. The obvious reason for such a push is to improve the temporal, spectral, and spatial coverage of the area(s) under investigation. However, there is little analysis available in terms of the benefits, costs and the optimal set of sensors needed to make the necessary observations. Classic observing system solutions may no longer be applicable because of their point design philosophy. Instead, a new intelligent data collection system paradigm employing both reactive and proactive measurement strategies with adaptability to the dynamics of the phenomena should be developed. This is a complex problem that should be carefully studied and balanced across various boundaries including: science, modeling, applications, and technology. Modeling plays a crucial role in making useful predictions about naturally occurring or human-induced phenomena In particular, modeling can serve to mitigate the potentially deleterious impacts a phenomenon may have on human life, property, and the economy. This is especially significant when one is interested in learning about the dynamics of, for example, the spread of forest fires, regional to large-scale air quality issues, the spread of the harmful invasive species, or the atmospheric transport of volcanic plumes and ash. This paper identifies and examines these challenging issues and presents architectural alternatives for an integrated sensor web to provide observing scenarios driving the requisite dynamic spatial, spectral, and temporal characteristics to address these key application areas. A special emphasis is placed on the observing systems and its operational aspects in serving the multiple users and stakeholders in providing societal benefits. We also address how such systems will take advantage of technological advancement in small spacecraft and emerging information technologies, and how sensor web options may be realized and made affordable. Specialized detector subsystems and precision flying techniques may still require substantial innovation, development time and cost: we have presented the considerations for these issues. Finally, data and information gathering and compression techniques are also briefly described.

Habib, Shahid↗

DOE OSTI2020

Hydrogen Refueling Reference Station Lot Size Analysis for Urban Sites

Hydrogen Fueling Infrastructure Research and Station Technology (H2FIRST) is a project initiated by the DOE in 2015 and executed by Sandia National Laboratories and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory to address R&D barriers to the deployment of hydrogen fueling infrastructure. One key barrier to the deployment of fueling stations is the land area they require (i.e. "footprint"). Space is particularly a constraint in dense urban areas where hydrogen demand is high but space for fueling stations is limited. This work presents current fire code requirements that inform station footprint, then identifies and quantifies opportunities to reduce footprint without altering the safety profile of fueling stations. Opportunities analyzed include potential new methods of hydrogen delivery, as well as alternative placements of station technologies (i.e. rooftop/underground fuel storage). As interest in heavy-duty fueling stations and other markets for hydrogen grows, this study can inform techniques to reduce the footprint of heavy-duty stations as well. This work characterizes generic designs for stations with a capacity of 600 kg/day hydrogen dispensed and 4 dispenser hoses. Three base case designs (delivered gas, delivered liquid, and on-site electrolysis production) have been modified in 5 different ways to study the impacts of recently released fire code changes, colocation with gasoline refueling, alternate delivery assumptions, underground storage of hydrogen, and rooftop storage of hydrogen, resulting in a total of 32 different station designs. The footprints of the base case stations range from 13,000 to 21,000 ft 2 . A significant focus of this study is the NFPA 2 requirements, especially the prescribed setback distances for bulk gaseous or liquid hydrogen storage. While the prescribed distances are large in some cases, these setback distances are found to have a nuanced impact on station lot size; considerations of the delivery truck path, traffic flow, parking, and convenience store location are also important. Station designs that utilize underground and rooftop storage can reduce footprint but may not be practical or economical. For example, burying hydrogen storage tanks underground can reduce footprint, but the cost savings they enable depend on the cost of burial and the cost land. Siting and economic analysis of station lot sizes illustrate the benefit of smaller station footprints in the flexibility and cost savings they can provide. This study can be used as a reference that provides examples of the key design differences that fueling stations can incorporate, the approximate sizes of generic station lots, and considerations that might be unique to particular designs.

08 HYDROGEN↗

NASA NTRS1983

Analysis and methodology for aeronautical systems technology program planning

A structured methodology was developed that allows the generation, analysis, and rank-ordering of system concepts by their benefits and costs, indicating the preferred order of implementation. The methodology is supported by a base of data on civil transport aircraft fleet growth projections and data on aircraft performance relating the contribution of each element of the aircraft to overall performance. The performance data are used to assess the benefits of proposed concepts. The methodology includes a computer program for performing the calculations needed to rank-order the concepts and compute their cumulative benefit-to-cost ratio. The use of the methodology and supporting data is illustrated through the analysis of actual system concepts from various sources.

White, M. J.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Achieving an 80% Renewable Portfolio in Alaska's Railbelt: Cost Analysis

This study examines the system-level costs and benefits of increased renewable energy deployment in the Railbelt grid, in the context of a proposed 80% renewable portfolio standard (RPS). This work studies the period from 2024 to 2040 and uses a model that simulates the planning, evolution, and operation of the power system to identify the mix of resources that maintains system reliability at the lowest electricity system cost over the period of analysis. The model tracks several reliability metrics, including the ability to serve demand during all hours of the year, even when normal power system failures occur. The model includes several measures (and associated costs) to address the variable output of renewable resources, including additional operating reserves, fuel storage, cycling of fossil plants, and additional equipment needed to maintain system stability. The Reference (least-cost) scenario results in substantial deployment of renewable energy and cost savings, reaching about 76% of Railbelt generation derived from renewables in 2040. Annual savings average about $105 M/year from 2030 to 2040. About 50% of this generation is from wind by 2040. Enforcing an 80% RPS results in about a 2% cumulative reduction in net savings. Demand is met in all scenarios, relying heavily on use of existing hydropower and fossil-fueled generators during periods of low renewable output. Meeting the increase in variability will require substantial changes in how the system is operated, with inverter-based resources providing nearly 100% of electricity during some periods.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS2013

Cost Beneftt Analysts of LH2 PadB

This analysis is used to evaluate, from a cost and benefit perspective, potential outcomes when replacing the pressurization switches and the pressurization system to meet the needs of the LH2 storage system at Pad B. This also includes alternatives, tangible and intangible benefits, and the results of the analysis.

Mott, Brittany↗

NASA NTRS1973

Geographic applications of ERTS-1 imagery to landscape change

The author has identified the following significant results. ERTS-1 has proven to be an effective earth-orbiting monitor of landscape change. Its regional coverage for large areal monitoring has been effective for the detection and mapping of agricultural plowing regions, for general forest cover mapping, for flood mapping, for strip mine mapping, and for short-lived precipitation mapping patterns. Paramount to the entire study has been the temporal coverage provided by ERTS. Without the cyclic coverage on an 18 day basis, temporal coverage would have been inadequate for the detection and mapping of strip mining landscape change, the analysis of agricultural landscape change based on plowing patterns, the analysis of urban-suburban growth changes, and the mapping of the Mississippi River floods. Cost benefits from ERTS are unquestionably superior to aircraft systems in regard to large regional coverage and cyclic temporal parameters. For the analysis of landscape change in large regions such as statewide areas or even areas of 10,000 square miles, ERTS is of cost benefit consideration. Not only does the cost of imagery favor ERTS but the reduction of man-hours using ERTS has been in the magnitude of 1:10.

Rehder, J. B.↗

DOE OSTI2021

MACCS Theory Manual

This report describes the models of the MACCS computer code as presented in MACCS Version 3.10.0. The purpose of MACCS is to simulate the impact of severe accidents at nuclear power plants on the surrounding environment. MACCS has been developed by Sandia National Laboratories for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. From a given release of radioactive material into the atmosphere, MACCS estimates the extent and magnitude of radiological contamination, offsite doses, protective actions, socioeconomic impacts and costs, and health effects. Since the weather at the time of an accident is not predictable, MACCS supports various sampling options to run a representative set of simulations to evaluate weather variability. MACCS simulates atmospheric transport with a straight-line Gaussian plume segment model. From the estimated air and ground concentrations, MACCS models dose projections through several dose exposure pathways. These exposures can be offset by protective actions during the emergency response and long-term recovery of the accident. MACCS users directly specify the evacuation and sheltering area, while other protective actions (e.g., relocation, farmland restrictions, decontamination) are based on user-specified dose or concentration limits. While protective actions help reduce dose accumulation, they also cause social and economic impacts. MACCS models the extent of displaced individuals and land contamination, and the cost of offsite property damage, economic disruptions, and various accident expenditures caused by protective actions. Finally, from the dose accumulation, MACCS estimates early and stochastic health effects according to dose-response models. The purpose of consequence analyses is to be able to understand and estimate the impact of nuclear accidents. Consequence analysis is an essential tool to inform determinations of adequate protection of the public, to understand nuclear power hazards, to measure the value of regulations, and to help us appreciate the importance of nuclear safety. As such, MACCS has a variety of regulatory uses including environmental analyses (10 CFR 51.53, 52.47), regulatory cost-benefit analyses, backfit analyses (10 CFR 50.109), consequence analysis studies such as SOARCA (NUREG-1935), Level 3 PRA studies, and risk-informing of emergency planning (10 CFR 50 App. E and 50.47). This report updates the previous MACCS theory manual (NUREG/CR-4691 Vol. 2; Chanin, Sprung, Ritchie, & Jow, 1990) and accompanies the MACCS User's Guide (SAND-2021-1588) that describes the use and input requirements of the graphical user interface of MACCS known as WinMACCS. The MACCS User's Guide is also a reference guide that describes data input file formats, describes various software components in the MACCS code suite, and provides a set of example tutorials for running WinMACCS. Also, soon to be published is a MACCS input parameter guidance report (NUREG/CR-7270) that provides technical bases for commonly used MACCS input values. This page left blank

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1976

Excerpts from selected LANDSAT 1 final reports in geology

The standard formats for the summaries of selected LANDSAT geological data are presented as checklists. These include: (1) value of LANDSAT data to geology, (2) geologic benefits, (3) follow up studies, (4) cost benefits, (5) optimistic working scales, (6) statistical analysis, and (7) enhancement effects.

Short, N. M.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Comparing Trash Disposal and Reuse Options for Deep Space Gateway and Mars Missions

Taking out the trash at NASA's newly proposed Deep Space Gateway (DSG) will not be a trivial task. While not the most important aspect of planning this cislunar outpost, there are several options that should be carefully considered since they may affect the crew as well as mission mass and volume. This study extends an earlier one, which focused on waste disposal options for a Mars Transit Vehicle. In that study, gasifying and venting trash along the way was found to noticeably reduce propellant needs and launch mass, whereas keeping processed trash on board in the form of radiation shielding tiles would significantly lower the crew's radiation dose during a solar particle event. Another favorable strategy was packing trash in a used logistics module for disposal. Since the DSG does not need much propulsion to maintain its orbit and Orion will be present with its own radiation storm shelter at the Gateway, the driving factors of the waste disposal trade study are different than for the Mars mission. Besides reviewing the propulsion and radiation shielding factors, potential drivers such as mass, power, volume, crew time, and human factors (e.g. smell) were studied. Disposal options for DSG include jettison of a used logistics module containing waste after every human stay, jettison of the same logistics module after several missions once it is full, regular disposal of trash via an airlock, or gasifying waste products for easier disposal or reuse. Conversely, a heat melt compactor device could be used to remove water and stabilize trash into tiles which could be more compactly stored on board and used as radiation shielding. Equivalent system mass analysis is used to tally the benefits and costs (mass, volume, power, crew time) of each case on an equivalent mass basis. Other more subjective factors are also discussed. Recommendations are made for DSG and Mars mission waste disposal.

Ewert, Michael↗

NASA NTRS2023

Flight Mechanics Analysis Tools Interoperability and Component Sharing

As multiple flight mechanics (FM) analysis tools are developed to meet the unique scientific and operational requirements of NASA missions, sharing data, transferring models and trajectory information between tools can be complicated. The NESC recently explored ways that increase interoperability of three mission analysis tools: Copernicus, General Mission Analysis Tool (GMAT), and Mission-Analysis Operations Navigation Toolkit Environment (MONTE). These tools are used to generate a variety of products throughout all phases of a mission including: maneuver planning, trajectory optimization and design, orbit determination, performance and error analysis, trade studies and sizing. Establishing a framework to share models, component data and trajectory information is an efficient way to leverage the benefits of an analysis tool without expending development costs to duplicate functionality.

Flight Mechanics Simulation↗

DOE OSTI2024

Consumer Benefits of Clean Energy: Energy Efficiency

Meeting national and state decarbonization goals requires a transition to clean energy technologies. Energy efficiency, demand flexibility, renewable energy and storage can reduce consumers’ electricity bills, lower total electricity system costs, and provide health and resilience benefits. Berkeley Lab developed a series of briefs that explore these consumer benefits of a clean energy transition. This brief focuses on energy efficiency benefits, and builds on prior analysis from Berkeley Lab’s Cost of Saved Energy database. We show that energy efficiency remains a low-cost energy and capacity resource; the levelized cost of saving energy for the programs included in the analysis is $\$0.02$/kilowatt-hour and the cost of saving peak demand is less $\$120$/kilowatt. Understanding the impact of the program mix, portfolio size, and duration of implementation for customer-funded energy efficiency portfolios can guide regulatory oversight of these programs, help utilities better utilize energy efficiency as a resource, and inform building energy decarbonization policies.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS2000

Improving The Discipline of Cost Estimation and Analysis

The need to improve the quality and accuracy of cost estimates of proposed new aerospace systems has been widely recognized. The industry has done the best job of maintaining related capability with improvements in estimation methods and giving appropriate priority to the hiring and training of qualified analysts. Some parts of Government, and National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) in particular, continue to need major improvements in this area. Recently, NASA recognized that its cost estimation and analysis capabilities had eroded to the point that the ability to provide timely, reliable estimates was impacting the confidence in planning many program activities. As a result, this year the Agency established a lead role for cost estimation and analysis. The Independent Program Assessment Office located at the Langley Research Center was given this responsibility. This paper presents the plans for the newly established role. Described is how the Independent Program Assessment Office, working with all NASA Centers, NASA Headquarters, other Government agencies, and industry, is focused on creating cost estimation and analysis as a professional discipline that will be recognized equally with the technical disciplines needed to design new space and aeronautics activities. Investments in selected, new analysis tools, creating advanced training opportunities for analysts, and developing career paths for future analysts engaged in the discipline are all elements of the plan. Plans also include increasing the human resources available to conduct independent cost analysis of Agency programs during their formulation, to improve near-term capability to conduct economic cost-benefit assessments, to support NASA management's decision process, and to provide cost analysis results emphasizing "full-cost" and "full-life cycle" considerations. The Agency cost analysis improvement plan has been approved for implementation starting this calendar year. Adequate financial and human resources are being made available to accomplish the goals of this important effort, and all indications are that NASA's cost estimation and analysis core competencies will be substantially improved within the foreseeable future.

Piland, William M.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Solar thermal technologies - Potential benefits to U.S. utilities and industry

Solar energy systems were investigated which complement nuclear and coal technologies as a means of reducing the U.S. dependence on imported petroleum. Solar Thermal Energy Systems (STES) represents an important category of solar energy technologies. STES can be utilized in a broad range of applications servicing a variety of economic sectors, and they can be deployed in both near-term and long-term markets. The net present value of the energy cost savings attributable to electric utility and IPH applications of STES were estimated for a variety of future energy cost scenarios and levels of R&D success. This analysis indicated that the expected net benefits of developing an STES option are significantly greater than the expected costs of completing the required R&D. In addition, transportable fuels and chemical feedstocks represent a substantial future potential market for STES. Due to the basic nature of this R&D activity, however, it is currently impossible to estimate the value of STES in these markets. Despite this fact, private investment in STES R&D is not anticipated due to the high level of uncertainty characterizing the expected payoffs. Previously announced in STAR as N83-10547

Terasawa, K. L.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Potential benefits from a successful solar thermal program

Terasawa, K. L.↗

NASA NTRS1974

Some economic benefits of a synchronous earth observatory satellite

An analysis was made of the economic benefits which might be derived from reduced forecasting errors made possible by data obtained from a synchronous satellite system which can collect earth observation and meteorological data continuously and on demand. User costs directly associated with achieving benefits are included. In the analysis, benefits were evaluated which might be obtained as a result of improved thunderstorm forecasting, frost warning, and grain harvest forecasting capabilities. The anticipated system capabilities were used to arrive at realistic estimates of system performance on which to base the benefit analysis. Emphasis was placed on the benefits which result from system forecasting accuracies. Benefits from improved thunderstorm forecasts are indicated for the construction, air transportation, and agricultural industries. The effects of improved frost warning capability on the citrus crop are determined. The benefits from improved grain forecasting capability are evaluated in terms of both U.S. benefits resulting from domestic grain distribution and U.S. benefits from international grain distribution.

Battacharyya, R. K.↗