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COSTMODL is automated software development-estimation tool. Yields significant reduction in risk of cost overruns and failed projects. Accepts description of software product developed and computes estimates of effort required to produce it, calendar schedule required, and distribution of effort and staffing as function of defined set of development life-cycle phases. Written for IBM PC(R)-compatible computers.
Supportability will be a significantly greater driver of cost and risk for future deep-space crewed missions than it has been in the past. Spares requirements and maintenance risk mitigation in particular present an unprecedented challenge for missions beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO), since, for the first time in human spaceflight history, crews will be weeks or months away from resupply or a safe return to Earth in the event of an abort. Under these conditions, failure rates are a critical parameter that must be well-understood in order to manage logistics and risk effectively. However, failure rates cannot be measured directly, and can only be estimated based on past experience and test results. Previous research has shown that International Space Station (ISS) operational experience has provided significant benefits to future missions by reducing uncertainty and improving accuracy in failure rate estimates, resulting in significant reductions in mass and risk for beyond-LEO missions. This paper updates and expands on that research and quantifies the potential value of continued testing for future mission supportability. Frequentist and Bayesian models for evaluating, validating, and updating failure rate estimates are described, and are combined with supportability models to examine potential impacts of additional operating experience for future missions in terms of logistics mass reduction. The implications of these results for technology development, system design, and program planning are discussed along with lessons learned and recommendations for future system development. In the end, there is no simple answer to the question of how much testing is required, but the models described in this paper provide a way to evaluate the potential impacts of testing in order to inform test planning.
The Multi-User Space (MUS) Link Extension system, a software and data system, provides Space Link Extension (SLE) users with three space data transfer services in timely, complete, and offline modes as applicable according to standards defined by the Consultative Committee for Space Data Systems (CCSDS). MUS radically reduces the schedule, cost, and risk of implementing a new SLE user system, minimizes operating costs with a lights-out approach to SLE, and is designed to require no sustaining engineering expense during its lifetime unless changes in the CCSDS SLE standards, combined with new provider implementations, force changes. No software modification to MUS needs to be made to support a new mission. Any systems engineer with Linux experience can begin testing SLE user service instances with MUS starting from a personal computer (PC) within five days. For flight operators, MUS provides a familiar-looking Web page for entering SLE configuration data received from SLE. Operators can also use the Web page to back up a space mission's entire set of up to approximately 500 SLE service instances in less than five seconds, or to restore or transfer from another system the same amount of data from a MUS backup file in about the same amount of time. Missions operate each MUS SLE service instance independently by sending it MUS directives, which are legible, plain ASCII strings. MUS directives are usually (but not necessarily) sent through a TCP-IP (Transmission Control Protocol Internet Protocol) socket from a MOC (Mission Operations Center) or POCC (Payload Operations Control Center) system, under scripted control, during "lights-out" spacecraft operation. MUS permits the flight operations team to configure independently each of its data interfaces; not only commands and telemetry, but also MUS status messages to the MOC. Interfaces can use single- or multiple-client TCP/IP server sockets, TCP/IP client sockets, temporary disk files, the system log, or standard in, standard out, or standard error as applicable. By defining MUS templates in ASCII, the flight operations team can include any MUS system variable in telemetry or command headers or footers, and/or in status messages. Data fields can be arranged within messages in different sequences, according to the mission s needs. The only constraints imposed are on the format of MUS directive strings, and some bare minimum logical requirements that must be met in order for MUS to read the mission control center's spacecraft command inputs. The MUS system imposes no limits or constraints on the numbers and combinations of missions and SLE service instances that it will support simultaneously. At any time, flight operators may add, change, delete, bind, connect, or disconnect.
A rapid mission to Mars requires a large change in vehicle velocity upon arrival to establish a stable orbit. This demand is even greater for a Neptune science, requiring many kilometers per second of V. It is clear from past mission studies that a manned Mars mission and deep space planetary orbiters require aerobraking and aerocapture which use aerodynamic drag forces to slow the spacecraft. Aerocapture would enable long term studies of the outer planets and moons that would not be possible with existing braking methodologies. While the ability to utilize these atmospheres to slow down and capture spacecraft would dramatically reduce the cost, launch mass, and travel time, currently planned approaches require significant additional spacecraft mass and risk as the spacecraft must descend deep into the planetary atmosphere in order to produce significant drag on a relatively small aeroshell. The plasma based Magnetoshell being developed in this program holds the potential to perform the desired braking with significantly increased drag and control while dramatically reducing mass. Most importantly, this technology significantly lowers the risk involved with aerocapture thereby making manned planetary missions possible. The fundamental physics of the Magnetoshell is based on demonstrated experimental results. Successful implementation will dramatically decrease radiation exposures, mission risk, launch cost, and launch mass. Implementation of aerobraking by employing a solid deflector or aeroshell as a method for orbit insertion and circularization has been successfully demonstrated in the past, resulting in launch mass savings greater than 50%. In order to reduce the effect of frictional heating and dynamic pressure on the typically fragile aeroshell, or worse solar panels, the braking must be distributed over many orbital passes at a high altitude in the less dense regions of the atmosphere. It can thus take several months for a meter-scale, 1000 kg, aeroshell to execute the many elliptic orbital passes through the atmosphere to achieve the required V. This rather slow method of braking not only reduces frictional heating and dynamic forces, but also avoids unpredictable dynamic behavior due to turbulence, as well as unknown and seasonally variable atmospheric composition and temperature which has led to dangerous, mission-critical events. For exploration class missions such as DRA 5.0 aerocapture and Thermal Protection Systems (TPS) are proposed for breaking at Mars for cargo missions. Traditional aerocapture is considered too risky for manned missions. Even with the enormous mass savings that aerocapture allows, it still requires 80 tons of aeroshell and significantly increased launch mass and propellant. As will be shown, by using Magnetoshells for aerobraking, the DRA 5.0 mission will save 224 metric tons (MT) and greater than $2 B in launch costs. Beyond the dramatic savings for existing mission architectures, a low-mass, risk-free aerocapture system would allow much more rapid missions to Mars and deep space orbiters by allowing direct, faster trajectories. As will be shown, the plasma Magnetoshell Aerobraking, Aerocapture, and Entry System (AAES) not only reduces mass and cost while enabling significant new mission architectures, but also significantly reduces radiation exposures by decreasing trip times.
The NASA Governance model directed the formation of three Technical Authorities, Engineering; Safety and Mission Assurance; and Health and Medical, to ensure that risks are identified and adjudicated efficiently and transparently in concert with the spaceflight programs and projects. The Health and Medical Technical Authority (HMTA) has been implemented at the Johnson Space Center (JSC) and consists of the Chief Medical Office (CMO), the Deputy CMO, and HMTA Delegates. The JSC HMTA achieves the goals of risk identification and adjudication through the discharge of the appropriate technical expertise to human space flight programs and projects and the escalation of issues within program and technical authority boards. The JSC HMTA relies on subject matter experts (SMEs) in the Space Life Sciences Directorate at JSC as well as experts from other Centers to work crew health and performance issues at the technical level, develop requirements, oversee implementation and validation of requirements, and identify risks and non-compliances. Once a risk or potential noncompliance has been identified and reported to the programs or projects, the JSC HMTA begins to track it and closely monitor the program's or project's response. As a risk is developed or a non-compliance negotiated, positions from various levels of decision makers are sought at the program and project control boards. The HMTA may support a program or project position if it is satisfied with the decision making and vetting processes (ex. the subject matter expert voiced his/her concerns and all dissenting opinions were documented) and finds that the position both acknowledges the risk and cost of the mitigation and resolves the issue without changing NASA risk posture. The HMTA may disagree with a program or project position if the NASA risk posture has been elevated or obfuscated. If the HMTA does disagree with the program or project position, it will appeal to successively higher levels of authority so that risk acceptance and risk trades will be acknowledged and sanctioned at the highest appropriate level; this includes Program Managers, Mission Directorate Associate Administrators and the Agency Administrator.
The Design Reference Architecture 5 (DRA 5) is the most recent concept developed by NASA to send humans to Mars in the 2030 time frame using Constellation Program elements. DRA 5 is optimized to meet a specific set of requirements that would provide for a robust exploration program to deliver a new six-person crew at each biennial Mars opportunity and provide for power and infrastructure to maintain a highly capable continuing human presence on Mars. This paper examines an alternate architecture that is scaled back from DRA 5 and might offer lower development cost, lower flight cost, and lower development risk. It is recognized that a mission set using this approach would not meet all the current Constellation Mars mission requirements; however, this 'austere' architecture may represent a minimum mission set that would be acceptable from a science and exploration standpoint. The austere approach is driven by a philosophy of minimizing high risk or high cost technology development and maximizing development and production commonality in order to achieve a program that could be sustained in a flat-funded budget environment. Key features that would enable a lower technology implementation are as follows: using a blunt-body entry vehicle having no deployable decelerators, utilizing aerobraking rather than aerocapture for placing the crewed element into low Mars orbit, avoiding the use of liquid hydrogen with its low temperature and large volume issues, using standard bipropellant propulsion for the landers and ascent vehicle, and using radioisotope surface power systems rather than a nuclear reactor or large area deployable solar arrays. Flat funding within the expected NASA budget for a sustained program could be facilitated by alternating cargo and crew launches for the biennial Mars opportunities. This would result in two assembled vehicles leaving Earth orbit for Mars per Mars opportunity. The first opportunity would send two cargo landers to the Mars surface to preposition a habitat, supplies, and exploration equipment. The next opportunity, two years later, would send to Mars orbit 1) a lander with a Mars Ascent Vehicle (MAV) and 2) a crewed Mars Transit Habitat with an Orion CEV for Earth return. The following opportunity, two years after the first crew, would go back to cargo-only launches. This alternation of cargo and crew opportunities results in a sustainable launch rate of six Ares V launches every two years. It is notable that four of the six launches per Mars opportunity are identical, build-to-print, Tran-Mars Injection stages. This type of production rate could lend itself well to a COTStype service provider, and would make it feasible to have a live spare in place in the event of a single launch failure.
Radar electronics developed for past JPL space missions historically had been custom designed and as such, given budgetary, time, and risk constraints, had not been optimized for maximum flexibility or miniaturization. To help reduce cost and risk of future radar missions, a generic radar module was conceived. The module includes a 1.25-GHz (L-band) transceiver and incorporates miniature high-density packaging of integrated circuits in die/chip form. The technology challenges include overcoming the effect of miniaturization and high packaging density to achieve the performance, reliability, and environmental ruggedness required for space missions. The module was chosen to have representative (generic) functionality most likely required from an L-band radar. For very large aperture phased-array spaceborne radar missions, the large dimensions of the array suggest the benefit of distributing the radar electronics into the antenna array. For such applications, this technology is essential in order to bring down the cost, mass, and power of the radar electronics module replicated in each panel of the array. For smaller sized arrays, a single module can be combined with the central radar controller and still provide the bene.ts of configuration .exibility, low power, and low mass. We present the design approach for the radar electronics module and the test results for its radio frequency (RF) portion: a miniature, low-power, radiation-hard L-band transceiver.
The continued high cost and risk of placing astronauts in space has placed considerable burden on NASA to cut costs and consider other means of achieving mission goals both effectively and safely. Additionally, future science missions which might place a tremendous burden on Shuttle availability, or require extended vehicle duty cycles on the Lunar surface and Mars surface, might preclude the presence of astronauts altogether.
To enable return of human missions to the surface of the Moon sustainably, a new study was initiated to assess the feasibility of developing an evolvable, economical and sustainable lunar surface infrastructure using a public-private partnerships approach. This approach would establish partnerships between NASA and private industry to mutually develop lunar surface infrastructure capabilities to support robotic missions initially and later evolve to full-scale commercial infrastructure services in support of human missions. These infrastructure services may range from power systems, communication and navigation systems, thermal management systems, mobility systems, water and propellant production to life support systems for human habitats. The public-private partnerships approach for this study leverages best practices from NASA’s Commercial Orbital Transportation Services (COTS) program which introduced an innovative and economical approach for partnering with industry to develop commercial cargo transportation services to the International Space Station (ISS). In this approach, NASA and industry partners shared cost and risk throughout the development phase which led to dramatic reduction in development and operations costs of these transportation services. Following this approach, a Lunar COTS concept was conceived to develop cost-effective surface infrastructure capabilities in partnership with industry to provide economical, operational services for small-scale robotic missions. As a result, a self-contained lunar infrastructure system with power, thermal, communication and navigation elements was conceptually designed to increase capability, extend mission duration and reduce cost of small-scale robotic missions. To support human missions, this work has now been extended to analyze full-scale lunar infrastructure systems. This infrastructure system should have capabilities to support human missions from a few days to several months with minimal maintenance and replacement of parts. This infrastructure system should also maximize the use of existing lunar resources, such as, oxygen from regolith, water from ice deposits at the poles, and use of metals, such as iron and aluminum, from lunar regolith. The plan includes a buildup of these capabilities using a phased-development approach that will eventually lead to operational infrastructure services. By partnering with industry to develop and operate the infrastructure services using the COTS model, this plan should also result in significant cost savings and increased reliability. This paper will describe the Lunar COTS concept goals, objectives and approach for developing an evolvable, economical and sustainable human lunar infrastructure as well as the challenges and opportunities for development.
A total savings of approximately 20 percent is attainable if: (1) mission management and ground processing schedules are compressed; (2) the equipping, staffing, and operating of the Payload Operations Control Center is revised, and (3) methods of working with experiment developers are changed. The development of a new mission implementation technique, which includes mission definition, experiment development, and mission integration/operations, is examined. The Payload Operations Control Center is to relocate and utilize new computer equipment to produce cost savings. Methods of reducing costs by minimizing the Spacelab and payload processing time during pre- and post-mission operation at KSC are analyzed. The changes required to reduce costs in the analytical integration process are studied. The influence of time, requirements accountability, and risk on costs is discussed. Recommendation for cost reductions developed by the Spacelab Mission Implementation Cost Assessment study are listed.
A concept for an orbiting laboratory for testing Controls-Structures Integration (CSI) technology is described. The CSI-Star concept reflects a lower cost, higher risk approach. The concept supports demonstration and validation testing for critical CSI technologies at a cost of $20M to $26M with a 1-year reliability of approximately 0.9. The Ball Aerospace QuickStar bus is the carrier for the CSI test article. QuickStar is launched as a secondary payload on the McDonnell Douglas Delta 2. The QuickStar/Delta 2 approach is flight proven. The CSI test article is a 20 foot, 1 Hz, truss beam which is deployed from the QuickStar bus. The test article is well instrumented for quality system identification. The laboratory provides three layers of active control consisting of global vibration suppression along the truss beam, vibration isolation between the beam and instrument platforms, and vibration compensation through the use of gimbaled platforms which point lasers relative to optical sensor targets. The configuration simulates the dynamics of multi-instrument science platforms such as those of the Earth Observation System (EOS) while maintaining strong ties to astrophysics missions such as the Optical Interferometer. Uplink/downlink services and a reprogrammable computer provide flexibility for long-term investigations by members of the CSI community (NASA, DoD, academia, and industry). CSI-Star fills the gap between short-term experiments, which have been conducted primarily on the Shuttle, and future science missions which require the technology. The on-orbit maturity of CSI technology must be established to obtain acceptance by project managers and to promote injection of the technology into future science missions.
Pegasus and the PegaStar integrated spacecraft bus are described, and an overview of integration and launch operations is provided. Payload design issues include payload volume and mass capability, payload interfaces, and design loads. Vehicle and payload processing issues include integration and handling methods, facilities, contamination control, and launch operations. It is noted that Pegasus provides small satellite users with a cost-effective means for delivering payloads into the specific orbits at the optimal time to meet the most demanding mission requirements. PegaStar provides a flexible cost-effective means for providing long-term on-orbit support while minimizing total program risk and cost.
A synergistic approach to systems test and support is explored. A building block architecture provides transportability of data, procedures, and knowledge. The synergistic approach also lowers cost and risk for life cycle of a program. The determination of design errors at the earliest phase reduces cost of vehicle ownership. Distributed scaleable architecture is based on industry standards maximizing transparency and maintainability. Autonomous control structure provides for distributed and segmented systems. Control of interfaces maximizes compatibility and reuse, reducing long term program cost. Intelligent data management architecture also reduces analysis time and cost (automation).
Natural space and atmospheric environments pose a difficult challenge for designers of technological systems in space. The deleterious effects of environment interactions with the systems include degradation of materials, thermal changes, contamination, excitation, spacecraft glow, charging, radiation damage, and induced background interference. Design accommodations must be realistic with minimum impact on performance while maintaining a balance between cost and risk. The goal of applied research in space environments and effects is to limit environmental impacts at low cost relative to spacecraft cost and to infuse enabling and commercial off-the-shelf technologies into space programs. The need to perform applied research to understand the space environment in a practical sense and to develop methods to mitigate these environment effects is frequently underestimated by space agencies and industry. Applied science research in this area is critical because the complexity of spacecraft systems is increasing, and they are exposed simultaneously to a multitude of space environments.
Parabilis Space Technologies developed a hybrid upper stage that combines the benefits of traditional liquid and solid propulsion systems while reducing risk and cost. Hybrid technology is safe, green, and cost-efficient, making it versatile, especially for CubeSat launches, and Parabilis’ ACE configuration makes the system more compact. Parabilis received additional funding from NASA and the U.S. Air Force to develop this technology beyond the Phase I and II STTR accomplishments
The NASA Marshall Space Flight Center Science and Technology Office is continuously exploring technology options to increase performance or reduce cost and risk to future NASA missions including science and exploration. Electric propulsion is a prevalent technology known to reduce mission costs by reduction in launch costs and spacecraft mass through increased post launch propulsion performance. The exploration of alternative propellants for electric propulsion continues to be of interest to the community. Iodine testing has demonstrated comparable performance to xenon. However, iodine has a higher storage density resulting in higher ΔV capability for volume constrained systems. Iodine's unique properties also allow for unpressurized storage yet sublimation with minimal power requirements to produce required gas flow rates. These characteristics make iodine an ideal propellant for secondary spacecraft. A range of mission have been evaluated with a focus on low-cost applications. Results highlight the potential for significant cost reduction over state of the art. Based on the potential, NASA has been developing the iodine Satellite for a near-term iodine Hall propulsion technology demonstration. Mission applications and progress of the iodine Satellite project are presented.
The next generation of human spaceflight missions presents numerous challenges to designers that must be addressed to produce a feasible concept. The specific challenges of designing an exploration mission utilizing the Space Launch System and the Orion spacecraft to carry astronauts beyond earth orbit to explore an asteroid stored in a distant retrograde orbit around the moon will be addressed. Mission designers must carefully balance competing constraints including cost, schedule, risk, and numerous spacecraft performance metrics including launch mass, nominal landed mass, abort landed mass, mission duration, consumable limits and many others. The Asteroid Redirect Crewed Mission will be described along with results from the concurrent mission design trades that led to its formulation. While the trades presented are specific to this mission, the integrated process is applicable to any potential future mission. The following trades were critical in the mission formulation and will be described in detail: 1) crew size, 2) mission duration, 3) trajectory design, 4) docking vs grapple, 5) extravehicular activity tasks, 6) launch mass and integrated vehicle performance, 7) contingency performance, 8) crew consumables including food, clothing, oxygen, nitrogen and water, and 9) mission risk. The additional Orion functionality required to perform the Asteroid Redirect Crewed Mission and how it is incorporated while minimizing cost, schedule and mass impacts will be identified. Existing investments in the NASA technology portfolio were leveraged to provide the added functionality that will be beneficial to future exploration missions. Mission kits are utilized to augment Orion with the necessary functionality without introducing costly new requirements to the mature Orion spacecraft design effort. The Asteroid Redirect Crewed Mission provides an exciting early mission for the Orion and SLS while providing a stepping stone to even more ambitious missions in the future.
The Optical Test Unit (OTU) for the NASA Direct Detection Laser Tranceiver (DDLT) Experiment was designed to perform a wide variety of electrical and optical tests with minimum cost and risk. Choosing instruments that could do their own processing and carefully examining each step of the integration and test sequence helped reduce the cost and complexity of the system, allowing us to meet a very ambitious schedule. For some tests, less elegant schemes can be used than the traditional system test methods, while still maintaining the integrity of the test system. This paper explores the problems encountered and options that were available in designing the system test equipment for this optical communication system.