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Results for “cost sensitivity analysis”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 253 records · Page 14
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Agent-Based Model of Combined Community- and Jail-Based Take-Home Naloxone Distribution

Importance Opioid-related overdose accounts for almost 80 000 deaths annually across the US. People who use drugs leaving jails are at particularly high risk for opioid-related overdose and may benefit from take-home naloxone (THN) distribution. Objective To estimate the population impact of THN distribution at jail release to reverse opioid-related overdose among people with opioid use disorders. Design, Setting, and Participants This study developed the agent-based Justice-Community Circulation Model (JCCM) to model a synthetic population of individuals with and without a history of opioid use. Epidemiological data from 2014 to 2020 for Cook County, Illinois, were used to identify parameters pertinent to the synthetic population. Twenty-seven experimental scenarios were examined to capture diverse strategies of THN distribution and use. Sensitivity analysis was performed to identify critical mediating and moderating variables associated with population impact and a proxy metric for cost-effectiveness (ie, the direct costs of THN kits distributed per death averted). Data were analyzed between February 2022 and March 2024. Intervention Modeled interventions included 3 THN distribution channels: community facilities and practitioners; jail, at release; and social network or peers of persons released from jail. Main Outcomes and Measures The primary outcome was the percentage of opioid-related overdose deaths averted with THN in the modeled population relative to a baseline scenario with no intervention. Results Take-home naloxone distribution at jail release had the highest median (IQR) percentage of averted deaths at 11.70% (6.57%-15.75%). The probability of bystander presence at an opioid overdose showed the greatest proportional contribution (27.15%) to the variance in deaths averted in persons released from jail. The estimated costs of distributed THN kits were less than $\$$15 000 per averted death in all 27 scenarios. Conclusions and Relevance This study found that THN distribution at jail release is an economical and feasible approach to substantially reducing opioid-related overdose mortality. Training and preparation of proficient and willing bystanders are central factors in reaching the full potential of this intervention.

Tatara, Eric [Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), A↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Role of Fuels in Transforming Energy End-Use in Buildings and Industrial Processes

This book examines what role fuels have in the transformation of end-use in buildings and industrial processes. Energy efficient technologies are necessary to lower the carbon footprint for a transition towards clean energy in a sustainable manner. Efficient utilization of primary energy resources including renewables to support the current and future energy needs while targeting grid resiliency, energy and environmental security, at an affordable cost is of significant value. Analysis of configurations consisting of heat pumps, fuel driven thermal providers and power systems is presented. Sensitivity of electrical grid's carbon intensity towards carbon footprint in comparison with fuel driven technologies is necessary to recognize the true value proposition of currently available energy solutions for different end consumers. Similarly, the role of low carbon, zero carbon, and carbon negative fuels such as power to gas, power to liquid, hydrogen, biogas, etc. in conjunction with polygeneration technologies are discussed. Transformation of the primary energy resources from conventional fossil fuels to renewable fuels or electricity will have a significant impact on the overall carbon footprint of various end use sectors, including buildings. Hence, this book also examines two different scenarios focused on sensitivity of the pace of decarbonization of electrical grid and fuel supply on operational energy related carbon emissions.

Cheekatamarla, Praveen↗
NASA NTRS1973

Evaluation of radioisotope tracer and activation analysis techniques for contamination monitoring in space environment simulation chambers

Radioisotope measurement techniques and neutron activation analysis are evaluated for use in identifying and locating contamination sources in space environment simulation chambers. The alpha range method allows the determination of total contaminant concentration in vapor state and condensate state. A Cf-252 neutron activation analysis system for detecting oils and greases tagged with stable elements is described. While neutron activation analysis of tagged contaminants offers specificity, an on-site system is extremely costly to implement and provides only marginal detection sensitivity under even the most favorable conditions.

Smathers, J. B.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Integrated analysis and design for controlled nonlinear multibody systems

A hybrid approach for integrated analysis and design of nonlinear multibody systems is proposed. Based on the approach, a general-purpose design tool is developed for nonlinear dynamic systems subjected to nonlinear design constraints. For analysis purposes, second-order nonlinear equations of motion of the system are automatically generated using general-purpose multibody formulations. Once the equations are solved, they are written in first-order form to take advantage of the first-order formulations of design sensitivity analysis for dynamic systems. A nonlinear programming technique is then used to optimize the nonlinear systems, such that a nonlinear cost function is minimized and performance constraints are satisfied. The approach proved to be very general and useful for design and analysis of controlled multibody systems. The approach is applied to the design of passive dynamic controllers for slewing control of multibody systems.

Wu, Shih-Chin↗
NASA NTRS2004

Analysis of SSEM Sensor Data Using BEAM

A report describes analysis of space shuttle main engine (SSME) sensor data using Beacon-based Exception Analysis for Multimissions (BEAM) [NASA Tech Briefs articles, the two most relevant being Beacon-Based Exception Analysis for Multimissions (NPO- 20827), Vol. 26, No.9 (September 2002), page 32 and Integrated Formulation of Beacon-Based Exception Analysis for Multimissions (NPO- 21126), Vol. 27, No. 3 (March 2003), page 74] for automated detection of anomalies. A specific implementation of BEAM, using the Dynamical Invariant Anomaly Detector (DIAD), is used to find anomalies commonly encountered during SSME ground test firings. The DIAD detects anomalies by computing coefficients of an autoregressive model and comparing them to expected values extracted from previous training data. The DIAD was trained using nominal SSME test-firing data. DIAD detected all the major anomalies including blade failures, frozen sense lines, and deactivated sensors. The DIAD was particularly sensitive to anomalies caused by faulty sensors and unexpected transients. The system offers a way to reduce SSME analysis time and cost by automatically indicating specific time periods, signals, and features contributing to each anomaly. The software described here executes on a standard workstation and delivers analyses in seconds, a computing time comparable to or faster than the test duration itself, offering potential for real-time analysis.

Zak, Michail↗
DOE OSTI2025

Comparative Study of Enhanced Geothermal System Supply Curves Across CONUS from Two Temperature Models Using the Renewable Energy Potential Model (reV)

Enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) have had recent breakthroughs within the geothermal sector. These breakthroughs are reflected in the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) 2024 Annual Technology Baseline and will result in updated EGS supply curves (i.e., the available resource capacity relative to cost). Our research uses NREL's Renewable Energy Potential (reV) model to compare EGS supply curves across the conterminous United States (CONUS) for two different temperature models: the Stanford temperature model (STM) and the Southern Methodist University temperature model (SMU). The reV model provides the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) at a consistent resolution across CONUS, taking into consideration transmission costs and constraints as well as technical exclusions pertaining to sensitive cultural, ecological, or infrastructure locations. In addition to a countrywide analysis of both models, we also conducted a regional analysis of Texas. We observed the STM had, on average, lower temperatures across different depths, resulting in slightly higher mean and median LCOEs as compared to the SMU temperature model at the same depths. In the regional analysis for Texas, however, when we compared only the common points between the two temperature models, the STM had lower median and mean LCOEs compared to SMU due to higher temperatures at depths greater than 5 km.

enhanced geothermal systems↗
NASA NTRS1987

Advanced probabilistic method of development

Advanced structural reliability methods are utilized on the Probabilistic Structural Analysis Methods (PSAM) project to provide a tool for analysis and design of space propulsion system hardware. The role of the effort at the University of Arizona is to provide reliability technology support to this project. PSAM computer programs will provide a design tool for analyzing uncertainty associated with thermal and mechanical loading, material behavior, geometry, and the analysis methods used. Specifically, reliability methods are employed to perform sensitivity analyses, to establish the distribution of a critical response variable (e.g., stress, deflection), to perform reliability assessment, and ultimately to produce a design which will minimize cost and/or weight. Uncertainties in the design factors of space propulsion hardware are described by probability models constructed using statistical analysis of data. Statistical methods are employed to produce a probability model, i.e., a statistical synthesis or summary of each design variable in a format suitable for reliability analysis and ultimately, design decisions.

Wirsching, P. H.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Efficient sensitivity analysis of the thermal profile in powder bed fusion of metals using hypercomplex automatic differentiation finite element method

Rapid cyclic temperature fluctuation occurring in powder bed fusion of metals using a laser beam (PBF-LB/M) influences the formation of flaws in printed parts. Consequently, there is a pressing need to enhance the quality of printed parts by developing innovative methodologies that can predict thermal histories and help uncover the intricate relationships between process parameters and thermal profiles. Sensitivity Analysis (SA) emerges as an essential tool for this, offering the potential for process optimization and enhanced quality control. Nonetheless, conventional SA methodologies often incur in excessive computational costs and potential numerical approximation errors. Here, to address this technical challenge, we present a novel method for SA that integrates the HYPercomplex-based Automatic Differentiation (HYPAD) technique with transient thermal simulations conducted via the finite element method (FEM). Leveraging this methodology, we efficiently and accurately perform SA for PBF-LB/M processes in a post-processing step. Compared to traditional methods like Finite Differences (FD), HYPAD-FEM required 96 % less computational time for obtaining sensitivities for 22 process parameters, under a comparative study conducted within the context of the 2018–02 AM benchmark of the National Institute of Standards and Technology. In summary, HYPAD-FEM offers superior efficiency and accuracy in SA over conventional methods, delivering the best sensitivity of a model without the need for step-size selection and problem or parameter-based implementations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Advancing Concentrating Solar Thermal Modeling Using System Advisor Model (SAM)

Concentrating solar thermal (CST) technologies play a critical role in enabling dispatchable power and high-temperature industrial heat applications. Accurate and flexible modeling tools are essential for evaluating system performance, guiding technology research and development, and informing investment decisions. The National Laboratory of the Rockies's System Advisor Model (SAM) is a widely used techno-economic simulation platform for CST systems, providing detailed performance and financial modeling capabilities for multiple CST system configurations. SAM integrates physics-based performance models with financial analysis to simulate the behavior of complex energy systems under realistic operating conditions. For CST technologies (including tower, parabolic trough, and linear Fresnel), SAM enables hourly simulations using site-specific weather data that ensure feasible operating conditions and convergence of mass and energy between core system components (i.e., solar field, receiver, thermal energy storage, and power cycle). These capabilities allow researchers and developers to evaluate annual energy production, capacity factors, levelized cost of energy (LCOE), and system dispatch strategies. A key advantage of SAM lies in its flexibility for parametric analysis and large-scale computational studies. Users can vary system design parameters such as heliostat field layout, receiver dimensions, thermal energy storage capacity, power block sizing, and installation cost assumptions to investigate their impact on system performance and financial metrics. When combined with automated scripting through LK, SDKTool, or Python interfaces, SAM enables high-throughput simulation workflows that support sensitivity analysis, technology benchmarking, and optimization studies. These approaches are particularly valuable for next-generation CST concepts, where design spaces are large and system interactions are complex. Another important capability of SAM is its support for dispatch optimization and thermal energy storage modeling, which are central to the value proposition of CST technologies. The ability to simulate integrated storage and flexible power generation allows researchers to explore strategies that maximize grid value, improve capacity utilization, and enhance integration with variable resources such as photovoltaic and wind generation. This poster will present an overview of SAM's thermal system modeling capabilities including concentrating solar. Additionally, we will highlight new feature developments including: 1) implementing Google's OR-Tools optimization platform for faster and more robust dispatch optimization, 2) developing a new power load following controller for modeling behind-the-meter applications, 3) enabling direct modeling of CSP-PV hybrid systems with the inclusion of battery storage, and 4) developing a multi-receiver falling particle Gen3 system model.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Optimal Sizing of PV and Energy Storage in an Electric Vehicle Extreme Fast Charging Station

This paper proposes an optimization model for the optimal sizing of photovoltaic (PV) and energy storage in an electric vehicle extreme fast charging station considering the coordinated charging strategy of the electric vehicles. The proposed model minimizes the annualized cost of the extreme fast charging station, including investment and maintenance cost of PV and energy storage, cost of purchasing energy from utility and demand charge. The decision variables are capacity of invested PV and the power and energy ratings of invested energy storage. To further reduce the annualized cost of the extreme fast charging station, the charging strategy of electric vehicles are integrated into the optimization model and coordinated with the power output of PV and charging/discharging of energy storage. Results of numerical simulations indicate that investment of PV and energy storage could help reduce the annualized cost of the extreme fast charging station significantly. Meanwhile, the impacts of various parameters on the optimal solution are investigated by sensitivity analysis.

Liu, Guodong↗
DOE OSTI2020

Multitask Recommender Systems for Cancer Drug Response

The problem we are currently trying to address is that there are many types of cancer drugs and many types of cancers and there is not always experimental data for a specific cancer type and cancer drug interaction. While there is a large possible set of feasible drug and cancer combinations, testing each pair is not realistic due to the high monetary cost of cell-based assays. Thus, this leaves researchers with a difficult choice of what drugs they should test on specific cancer types. This issue is known as the cold-start problem. Our focus is on developing recommender systems capable of addressing the cold-start problem as it relates to interaction between cancer types and cancer drugs. One of the most effective ways to address the cold-start problem is through large data analysis, however due to the cost prohibitive nature of cancer research the largest available data set size is the Genomics of Drug Sensitivity in Cancer with 494,973 genomic associations. To achieve optimal model performance on the cold-start problem, it is advantageous to employ multitask algorithms that are capable of transferring information between cancer datasets. The aim of this report is to draw from adaptations and state of the art developments in both algorithms for recommender systems and multitask learning to model the interaction between cancer cell lines and cancer drugs. Cancer cell lines are defined by the US National Cancer Institute as "cancer cells that keep dividing and growing over time, under certain conditions in a laboratory". This paper will focus on evaluating the performance of Neural Collaborative Filtering and Gaussian Processes, as well as their multitask adaptations, on cancer datasets from CCLE, NCI60, GDSC and CTRP. These methods will be evaluated on model performance in regression prediction but also in interpretability.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1991

Acquisition and production of skilled behavior in dynamic decision-making tasks: Modeling strategic behavior in human-automation interaction: Why and aid can (and should) go unused

Advances in computer and control technology offer the opportunity for task-offload aiding in human-machine systems. A task-offload aid (e.g., an autopilot, an intelligent assistant) can be selectively engaged by the human operator to dynamically delegate tasks to an automated system. Successful design and performance prediction in such systems requires knowledge of the factors influencing the strategy the operator develops and uses for managing interaction with the task-offload aid. A model is presented that shows how such strategies can be predicted as a function of three task context properties (frequency and duration of secondary tasks and costs of delaying secondary tasks) and three aid design properties (aid engagement and disengagement times, aid performance relative to human performance). Sensitivity analysis indicates how each of these contextual and design factors affect the optimal aid aid usage strategy and attainable system performance. The model is applied to understanding human-automation interaction in laboratory experiments on human supervisory control behavior. The laboratory task allowed subjects freedom to determine strategies for using an autopilot in a dynamic, multi-task environment. Modeling results suggested that many subjects may indeed have been acting appropriately by not using the autopilot in the way its designers intended. Although autopilot function was technically sound, this aid was not designed with due regard to the overall task context in which it was placed. These results demonstrate the need for additional research on how people may strategically manage their own resources, as well as those provided by automation, in an effort to keep workload and performance at acceptable levels.

Kirlik, Alex↗
DOE OSTI2021

The impacts of convex piecewise linear cost formulations on AC optimal power flow

Despite strong connections through shared application areas, research efforts on power market optimization (e.g., unit commitment) and power network optimization (e.g., optimal power flow) remain largely independent. A notable illustration of this is the treatment of power generation cost functions, where nonlinear network optimization has largely used polynomial representations and market optimization has adopted piecewise linear encodings. This work combines state-of-the-art results from both lines of research to understand the best mathematical formulations of the nonlinear AC optimal power flow problem with piecewise linear generation cost functions. An extensive numerical analysis of non-convex models, linear approximations, and convex relaxations across fifty-four realistic test cases illustrates that nonlinear optimization methods are surprisingly sensitive to the mathematical formulation of piecewise linear functions. The results indicate that a poor formulation choice can slow down algorithm performance by a factor of ten, increasing the runtime from seconds to minutes. Furthermore, these results provide valuable insights into the best formulations of nonlinear optimal power flow problems with piecewise linear cost functions, an important step towards building a new generation of energy markets that incorporate the nonlinear AC power flow model.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
NASA NTRS1993

Progress in multidisciplinary design optimization at NASA Langley

Multidisciplinary Design Optimization refers to some combination of disciplinary analyses, sensitivity analysis, and optimization techniques used to design complex engineering systems. The ultimate objective of this research at NASA Langley Research Center is to help the US industry reduce the costs associated with development, manufacturing, and maintenance of aerospace vehicles while improving system performance. This report reviews progress towards this objective and highlights topics for future research. Aerospace design problems selected from the author's research illustrate strengths and weaknesses in existing multidisciplinary optimization techniques. The techniques discussed include multiobjective optimization, global sensitivity equations and sequential linear programming.

Padula, Sharon L.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Application of sensitivity analysis in DYMOND/Dakota to fuel cycle transition scenarios

The ability to perform sensitivity analysis has been enabled for the nuclear fuel cycle simulator DYMOND through its coupling with the design and analysis toolkit Dakota. To test and demonstrate these new capabilities, a transition scenario and multi-parameter study were devised. The transition scenario represents a partial transition from the US nuclear fleet to a closed fuel cycle with small modular LWRs and fast reactors fueled by reprocessed used nuclear fuel. Four uncertain parameters in this transition were studied – start date of reprocessing, total reprocessing capacity, the nuclear energy demand growth, and the rate at which the fast reactors are deployed – with respect to their impact on four response metrics. The responses – total natural uranium consumed, maximum annual enrichment capacity required, total disposed mass, and total cost of the nuclear fuel cycle – were chosen based on measures known to be of interest in transition scenarios and to be significantly impacted by the varying parameters. Furthermore, analysis of this study was performed both from the direct sampling and through surrogate models developed in Dakota to calculate the global sensitivity measures Sobol’ indices. This example application of this new capability showed that the most consequential parameter to most metrics was the share of new build capacity that is fast reactors. However, for the cost metric, the scaling factor of the energy demand growth was significant and had synergistic behavior with the fast reactor new build share.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
NASA NTRS1984

Sensitivity analysis of limit state functions for probability-based plastic design

The evaluation of the total probability of a plastic collapse failure P sub f for a highly redundant structure of random interdependent plastic moments acted on by random interdepedent loads is a difficult and computationally very costly process. The evaluation of reasonable bounds to this probability requires the use of second moment algebra which involves man statistical parameters. A computer program which selects the best strategy for minimizing the interval between upper and lower bounds of P sub f is now in its final stage of development. The relative importance of various uncertainties involved in the computational process on the resulting bounds of P sub f, sensitivity is analyzed. Response sensitivities for both mode and system reliability of an ideal plastic portal frame are shown.

Frangopol, D. M.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Prototype-Wise Sensitivity Analysis of Urban Building Energy Simulation Surrogate Modeling Accuracy

Urban Building Energy Modeling (UBEM) is an important reference for urban energy-related policymaking. Because of the significant impact of urban microclimates on the energy simulation, UBEM requires simulations of many microclimate-prototype pairs. Surrogate modeling is commonly used to reduce the cost of simulation computations. In UBEM surrogate modeling, it is important to determine the percentage of microclimates related to a prototype used for generating surrogate model training data. This study analyzes the prototype-wise variations and sensitivities of surrogate model estimation accuracy to the microclimate sampling ratios. The results of the study can help determine the number of simulations used for generating surrogate modeling data, avoid redundant simulations, and reduce the computational cost for UBEM surrogate modeling and its time.

Pan, Xiyu↗