Performance of fish-habitat classifiers based on derived predictors from a coupled biophysical model
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Edward D. Weber↗
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Impacts of Saharan Mineral Dust on Air‐Sea Interaction over North Atlantic Ocean Using a Fully Coupled Regional Model
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Shu‐Hua Chen↗
Metrics for the Evaluation of the Southern Ocean in Coupled Climate Models and Earth System Models
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Joellen L. Russell↗
Large-scale features and evaluation of the PMIP4-CMIP6 midHolocene simulations
The mid-Holocene (6000 years ago) is a standard time period for the evaluation of the simulated response of global climate models using palaeoclimate reconstructions. The latest mid-Holocene simulations are a palaeoclimate entry card for the Palaeoclimate Model Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) component of the current phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) – hereafter referred to as PMIP4-CMIP6. Here we provide an initial analysis and evaluation of the results of the experiment for the mid-Holocene. We show that state-of-the-art models produce climate changes that are broadly consistent with theory and observations, including increased summer warming of the Northern Hemisphere and associated shifts in tropical rainfall. Many features of the PMIP4-CMIP6 simulations were present in the previous generation (PMIP3-CMIP5) of simulations. The PMIP4-CMIP6 ensemble for the mid-Holocene has a global mean temperature change of −0.3 K, which is −0.2 K cooler than the PMIP3-CMIP5 simulations predominantly as a result of the prescription of realistic greenhouse gas concentrations in PMIP4-CMIP6. Biases in the magnitude and the sign of regional responses identified in PMIP3-CMIP5, such as the amplification of the northern African monsoon, precipitation changes over Europe, and simulated aridity in mid-Eurasia, are still present in the PMIP4-CMIP6 simulations. Despite these issues, PMIP4-CMIP6 and the mid-Holocene provide an opportunity both for quantitative evaluation and derivation of emergent constraints on the hydrological cycle, feedback strength, and potentially climate sensitivity.
mid-Holocene simulations↗
Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6
The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) defines and coordinates the main set of future climate projections, based on concentration-driven simulations, within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). This paper presents a range of its outcomes by synthesizing results from the participating global coupled Earth system models. We limit our scope to the analysis of strictly geophysical outcomes: mainly global averages and spatial patterns of change for surface air temperature and precipitation. We also compare CMIP6 projections to CMIP5 results, especially for those scenarios that were designed to provide continuity across the CMIP phases, at the same time highlighting important differences in forcing composition, as well as in results. The range of future temperature and precipitation changes by the end of the century (2081–2100) encompassing the Tier 1 experiments based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) and SSP1-1.9 spans a larger range of outcomes compared to CMIP5, due to higher warming (by close to 1.5 °C) reached at the upper end of the 5 %–95 % envelope of the highest scenario (SSP5-8.5). This is due to both the wider range of radiative forcing that the new scenarios cover and the higher climate sensitivities in some of the new models compared to their CMIP5 predecessors. Spatial patterns of change for temperature and precipitation averaged over models and scenarios have familiar features, and an analysis of their variations confirms model structural differences to be the dominant source of uncertainty. Models also differ with respect to the size and evolution of internal variability as measured by individual models' initial condition ensemble spreads, according to a set of initial condition ensemble simulations available under SSP3-7.0. These experiments suggest a tendency for internal variability to decrease along the course of the century in this scenario, a result that will benefit from further analysis over a larger set of models. Benefits of mitigation, all else being equal in terms of societal drivers, appear clearly when comparing scenarios developed under the same SSP but to which different degrees of mitigation have been applied. It is also found that a mild overshoot in temperature of a few decades around mid-century, as represented in SSP5-3.4OS, does not affect the end outcome of temperature and precipitation changes by 2100, which return to the same levels as those reached by the gradually increasing SSP4-3.4 (not erasing the possibility, however, that other aspects of the system may not be as easily reversible). Central estimates of the time at which the ensemble means of the different scenarios reach a given warming level might be biased by the inclusion of models that have shown faster warming in the historical period than the observed. Those estimates show all scenarios reaching 1.5 °C of warming compared to the 1850–1900 baseline in the second half of the current decade, with the time span between slow and fast warming covering between 20 and 27 years from present. The warming level of 2 °C of warming is reached as early as 2039 by the ensemble mean under SSP5-8.5 but as late as the mid-2060s under SSP1-2.6. The highest warming level considered (5 °C) is reached by the ensemble mean only under SSP5-8.5 and not until the mid-2090s.d-2090s.
Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMI↗
Fast Responses on Pre-Industrial Climate from Present-Day Aerosols in A CMIP6 Multi-Model Study
In this work, we use Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) simulations from 10 Earth system models (ESMs) and general circulation models (GCMs) to study the fast climate responses on pre-industrial climate, due to present-day aerosols. All models carried out two sets of simulations: a control experiment with all forcings set to the year 1850 and a perturbation experiment with all forcings identical to the control, except for aerosols with precursor emissions set to the year 2014. In response to the pattern of all aerosols effective radiative forcing (ERF), the fast temperature responses are characterized by cooling over the continental areas, especially in the Northern Hemisphere, with the largest cooling over East Asia and India, sulfate being the dominant aerosol surface temperature driver for present-day emissions. In the Arctic there is a warming signal for winter in the ensemble mean of fast temperature responses, but the model-to-model variability is large, and it is presumably linked to aerosol-induced circulation changes. The largest fast precipitation responses are seen in the tropical belt regions, generally characterized by a reduction over continental regions and presumably a southward shift of the tropical rain belt. This is a characteristic and robust feature among most models in this study, associated with weakening of the monsoon systems around the globe (Asia, Africa and America) in response to hemispherically asymmetric cooling from a Northern Hemisphere aerosol perturbation, forcing possibly the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical precipitation to shift away from the cooled hemisphere despite that aerosols' effects on temperature and precipitation are only partly realized in these simulations as the sea surface temperatures are kept fixed. An interesting feature in aerosol-induced circulation changes is a characteristic dipole pattern with intensification of the Icelandic Low and an anticyclonic anomaly over southeastern Europe, inducing warm air advection towards the northern polar latitudes in winter.
Pre-industrial climate↗
The Role of Tropical Cyclone—Ocean Interactions in Future Changes in Hurricane Katrina
Tropical cyclone (TC) intensity and precipitation are projected to increase in the future. However, some projections are based on atmosphere‐only models in which sea surface temperatures are prescribed, whereas projections based on global atmosphere‐ocean coupled models can be subject to long‐term ocean biases. We investigated the role of TC‐ocean interactions in future changes in TC intensity and precipitation in Hurricane Katrina. We performed four‐member ensembles using convection‐permitting atmosphere‐only and atmosphere‐ocean regional models for the historical climate and four future climates. We found that although future TC intensity and precipitation increased regardless of ocean coupling, ocean coupling dampened the future minimum sea‐level pressure decrease by half and amplified future precipitation scaling. Compared to future changes in upper‐ocean temperature, changes in salinity contributed little to future changes in TC intensity. This study highlights the importance of considering TC‐ocean interactions to reduce uncertainty in the magnitude of future TC intensity and precipitation projections.
climate change↗
Near Real-Time Sub/Seasonal Prediction of Aerosol and Air Quality at the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office
Version 2 of the coupled modeling and analysis system used to produce near real time subseasonal to seasonal forecasts was released almost two years ago by the NASA/Goddard Global Modeling and Assimilation Office. The model runs at approximately 1/2 degree globally in the atmosphere and ocean, contains a realistic description of the cryosphere, and includes an interactive aerosol model. The data assimilation used to produce initial conditions is weakly coupled, in which the atmosphere-only assimilated state is coupled to an ocean data assimilation system using a Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter. Results of aerosol-derived air quality (Particulate Matter) from an extensive series of retrospective forecasts will be shown, with particular focus on the continental United States and eastern Asia. In addition, under some circumstances, the interactive aerosol is shown to improve seasonal time scale prediction skill. Plans for a future version of the system with predicted biomass burning from fires will also be discussed.
Molod, Andrea↗
Bimodality in simulated precipitation frequency distributions and its relationship with convective parameterizations
Abstract Bimodality in precipitation frequency distributions is often evident in atmospheric models, but rarely in observations. This study i) proposes a metric to objectively quantify the bimodality in precipitation distributions, ii) evaluates model simulations contributed to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) phase 5 (CMIP5), phase 6 (CMIP6), and the DYnamics of the Atmospheric general circulation Modeled On Non-hydrostatic Domains (DYAMOND) project by comparing them to satellite-based and reanalysis precipitation products, and iii) investigates possible origins of bimodal precipitation distributions. Our results reveal that about 83% (20 out of 24) of CMIP5 and 70% (21 out of 30) of CMIP6 models used in this study exhibit bimodal distributions. The few DYAMOND models that use a deep convective parameterization also show bimodal distributions, while most DYAMOND models do not. Predictably, the bimodality originates from the separation of precipitation process between resolved grid-scale and parameterized subgrid-scale. However, in a larger number of models bimodality arises from the parameterized subgrid-scale convective precipitation alone.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Land surface interaction
The topics covered include the following: land and climate modeling; sensitivity studies; the process of a land model; model-specific parameterizations; water stress; within-canopy resistances; partial vegetation; canopy temperature; and present experience with a land model coupled to a general circulation model.
Dickinson, Robert E.↗
The Radiative Effects of Martian Water Ice Clouds on the Local Atmospheric Temperature Profile
Mars Pathfinder made numerous discoveries, one of which was a deep temperature inversion that extended from about 15 km down to 8 km above the surface. It has been suggested by Haberle et al. (1999. J. Geophys. Res. 104, 8957-8974.) that radiative cooling by a water ice cloud may generate such an inversion. Clouds can strongly affect the local air temperature due to their ability to radiate efficiently in the infrared and due to the low air mass of the martian atmosphere, which allows the temperature to change during the relatively short lifetime of a cloud. We utilize a time-dependent microphysical aerosol model coupled to a radiative--convective model to explore the effects water ice clouds have on the local martian temperature profile. We constrain the dust and water vapor abundance using data from the Viking Missions and Mars Pathfinder. Water t ice clouds with visible optical depths of r > 0.1 form readily in these simulations. These clouds alter the local air temperature directly, through infrared cooling, and indirectly, by redistributing atmospheric dust. With this model we are able to reproduce the temperature inversions observed by Mars Pathfinder and Mars Global t Surveyor 2000 Academic Press
Colaprete, Anthony↗
Membrane rejection of nitrogen compounds
Rejection characteristics of nitrogen compounds were examined for reverse osmosis, nanofiltration, and low-pressure reverse osmosis membranes. The rejection of nitrogen compounds is explained by integrating experimental results with calculations using the extended Nernst-Planck model coupled with a steric hindrance model. The molecular weight and chemical structure of nitrogen compounds appear to be less important in determining rejection than electrostatic properties. The rejection is greatest when the Donnan potential exceeds 0.05 V or when the ratio of the solute radius to the pore radius is greater than 0.8. The transport of solute in the pore is dominated by diffusion, although convective transport is significant for organic nitrogen compounds. Electromigration contributes negligibly to the overall solute transport in the membrane. Urea, a small organic compound, has lower rejection than ionic compounds such as ammonium, nitrate, and nitrite, indicating the critical role of electrostatic interaction in rejection. This suggests that better treatment efficiency for organic nitrogen compounds can be obtained after ammonification of urea.
NASA Discipline Life Support Systems↗
Observing Tsunamis in the Ionosphere Using Ground Based GPS Measurements
Ground-based Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements of ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC) show variations consistent with atmospheric internal gravity waves caused by ocean tsunamis following recent seismic events, including the Tohoku tsunami of March 11, 2011. We observe fluctuations correlated in time, space, and wave properties with this tsunami in TEC estimates processed using JPL's Global Ionospheric Mapping Software. These TEC estimates were band-pass filtered to remove ionospheric TEC variations with periods outside the typical range of internal gravity waves caused by tsunamis. Observable variations in TEC appear correlated with the Tohoku tsunami near the epicenter, at Hawaii, and near the west coast of North America. Disturbance magnitudes are 1-10% of the background TEC value. Observations near the epicenter are compared to estimates of expected tsunami-driven TEC variations produced by Embry Riddle Aeronautical University's Spectral Full Wave Model, an atmosphere-ionosphere coupling model, and found to be in good agreement. The potential exists to apply these detection techniques to real-time GPS TEC data, providing estimates of tsunami speed and amplitude that may be useful for future early warning systems.
total electron content (TEC)↗
Observing Traveling Ionospheric Disturbances Caused by Tsunamis Using GPS TEC Measurements
Ground-based Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements of ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC) show variations consistent with atmospheric internal gravity waves caused by ocean tsunamis following two recent seismic events: the American Samoa earthquake of September 29, 2009, and the Chile earthquake of February 27, 2010. Fluctuations in TEC correlated in time, space, and wave properties with these tsunamis were observed in TEC estimates processed using JPL's Global Ionospheric Mapping Software. These TEC estimates were band-pass filtered to remove ionospheric TEC variations with wavelengths and periods outside the typical range of internal gravity waves caused by tsunamis. Observable variations in TEC appear correlated with the tsunamis in certain locations, but not in others. Where variations are observed, the typical amplitude tends to be on the order of 1% of the background TEC value. Variations with amplitudes ~ 0.1 - 0.2 TECU are observable with periods and timing affiliated with the tsunami. These observations are compared to estimates of expected tsunami-driven TEC variations produced by Embry Riddle Aeronautical University's Spectral Full Wave Model, an atmosphere-ionosphere coupling model, and found to be in good agreement in some locations, though there are cases when the model predicts an observable tsunami-driven signature and none is observed. These TEC variations are not always seen when a tsunami is present, but in these two events the regions where a strong ocean tsunami was observed did coincide with clear TEC observations, while a lack of clear TEC observations coincided with smaller tsunami amplitudes. There exists the potential to apply these detection techniques to real-time GPS TEC data, providing estimates of tsunami speed and amplitude that may be useful for early warning systems.
Galvan, David A.↗
Aeroacoustic Simulations of a Nose Landing Gear Using FUN3D on Pointwise Unstructured Grids
Numerical simulations have been performed for a partially-dressed, cavity-closed (PDCC) nose landing gear configuration that was tested in the University of Florida's open-jet acoustic facility known as the UFAFF. The unstructured-grid flow solver FUN3D is used to compute the unsteady flow field for this configuration. Mixed-element grids generated using the Pointwise(TradeMark) grid generation software are used for these simulations. Particular care is taken to ensure quality cells and proper resolution in critical areas of interest in an effort to minimize errors introduced by numerical artifacts. A hybrid Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes/large eddy simulation (RANS/LES) turbulence model is used for these simulations. Solutions are also presented for a wall function model coupled to the standard turbulence model. Time-averaged and instantaneous solutions obtained on these Pointwise grids are compared with the measured data and previous numerical solutions. The resulting CFD solutions are used as input to a Ffowcs Williams-Hawkings noise propagation code to compute the farfield noise levels in the flyover and sideline directions. The computed noise levels compare well with previous CFD solutions and experimental data.
Vatsa, Veer N.↗
Climate Impacts on Global Agriculture Emerge Earlier in New Generation of Climate and Crop Models
Potential climate-related impacts on future crop yield are a major societal concern. Previous projections of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project’s Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 identified substantial climate impacts on all major crops, but associated uncertainties were substantial. Here we report new twenty-first-century projections using ensembles of latest-generation crop and climate models. Results suggest markedly more pessimistic yield responses for maize, soybean and rice compared to the original ensemble. Mean end-of-century maize productivity is shifted from +5% to −6% (SSP126) and from +1% to −24% (SSP585)—explained by warmer climate projections and improved crop model sensitivities. In contrast, wheat shows stronger gains (+9% shifted to +18%, SSP585), linked to higher CO 2 concentrations and expanded high-latitude gains. The ‘emergence’ of climate impacts consistently occurs earlier in the new projections—before 2040 for several main producing regions. While future yield estimates remain uncertain, these results suggest that major breadbasket regions will face distinct anthropogenic climatic risks sooner than previously anticipated.
crop model↗
Explicit IMF By-Dependence of Energetic Protons and the Ring Current
The most important parameter driving the solar wind-magnetosphere interaction is the southward (Bz) component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). While the dawn-dusk (By) component of the IMF is also known to play an important role, its effects are usually assumed to be independent of its sign. Here we demonstrate for the first time a seasonally varying, explicit IMF By-dependence of the ring current and Dst index. Using satellite observations and a global magnetohydrodynamic model coupled with a ring current model, we show that for a fixed level of solar wind driving the flux of energetic magnetospheric protons and the growth-rate of the ring current are greater for By < 0 (By > 0) than for By > 0 (By < 0) in Northern Hemisphere summer (winter). While the physical mechanism of this explicit By-effect is not yet fully understood, our results suggest that IMF By modulates magnetospheric convection and plasma transport in the inner magnetosphere.
L Holappa↗
Static Aeroelastic Modeling of a Sub-Scale Wind Tunnel Model with Novel Flap Concept
This paper examines the static aeroelastic modeling of a flexible wind tunnel model equipped with a novel control effector known as the Variable Camber Continuous Trailing Edge Flap (VCCTEF) system. The wind tunnel model is an approximately 10 percent sub-scale version of a wing designed to be equipped on a commerical transport aircraft such as the full-scale NASA Generic Transport Model (GTM). The structure of the model is made highly flexible such that a 10 percent of semi-span wing tip deflection is expected at a design lift condition, and a representation of the VCCTEF concept is incorporated on the model. Static aeroelastic modeling is conducted by using a representative single beam structural finite-element model coupled to a vortex-lattice aerodynamic model. The resulting aeroelastic model of the flexible wind tunnel model is compared against experimental wind tunnel test results from the actual model tested at the University of Washington Aeronautical Laboratory (UWAL). Comparison cases are made using reference and VICON measurements of VCCTEF flap deflections from the wind tunnel test data, and percent errors between the lift curve parameters are presented. The results show up to a maximum percent of error of <10% with regards to lift curve slope values between the aeroelastic model and the UWAL test data. The agreement of lift curve slope values from the aeroelastic model and experimental test results serves as validation for the coupled vortex-lattice finite-element static aeroelastic model.
Aeroelasticity↗