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242 records · Page 14

Contributions of vegetation heterogeneity within tower footprint to CO 2 flux estimations through graph neural network modeling

Net ecosystem exchange of CO 2 (Fc) measured directly by eddy covariance towers is based on various assumptions, including large, flat and homogenous land cover type. In reality, often a tower site is not large enough for flux measurements, and landscapes consist of patches of different land cover types within the flux footprint. In addition, some portions of fluxes are contributed by different cover types when a footprint exceeds the size of the target ecosystem. The contributions of non-dominant patches to Fc are often ignored. Here, in this study, we propose a novel integrated modeling framework that combines random forest (RF) and XGBoost with a residual correction module based on a deep graph convolutional network (DeeperGCN) to simulate Fc for seven flux measurement sites in southwest Michigan. High-resolution remote sensing vegetation indices, soil properties, meteorological variables, and footprint-weighted spatial features were used as model inputs at three spatial resolutions (10 m, 20 m, 30 m), and their importance in predicting Fc with DeeperGCN was assessed. We found that residual correction using DeeperGCN significantly improved prediction accuracy, with the R 2 increasing from 0.9098 to 0.9479 for RF and from 0.9235 to 0.9433 for XGBoost. At site level, the maximum improvement in R 2 reached 0.1617. Paired t-tests confirmed that these improvements were statistically significant (p < 0.05). Among all predictors, leaf area index and incoming shortwave radiation emerged as the dominant drivers of spatial residual variation, followed by precipitation, relative humidity, and selected vegetation indices. The 20 m resolution yielded the best balance between model performance and computational efficiency. In conclusion, our modeling framework effectively captures both spatial heterogeneity and nonlinear interactions, offering a robust solution for spatially explicit flux modeling in structurally diverse ecosystems beyond the study sites.

footprint model↗

BeyondPlanck: XII. Cosmological parameter constraints with end-to-end error propagation

We present cosmological parameter constraints estimated using the Bayesian BEYONDPLANCK analysis framework. This method supports seamless end-to-end error propagation from raw time-ordered data onto final cosmological parameters. As a first demonstration of the method, we analyzed time-ordered Planck LFI observations, combined with selected external data (WMAP 33–61 GHz, Planck HFI DR4 353 and 857 GHz, and Haslam 408 MHz) in the form of pixelized maps that are used to break critical astrophysical degeneracies. Overall, all the results are generally in good agreement with previously reported values from Planck 2018 and WMAP, with the largest relative difference for any parameter amounting about 1σ when considering only temperature multipoles between 30 ≤ ℓ ≤ 600. In cases where there are differences, we note that the BEYONDPLANCK results are generally slightly closer to the high-ℓ HFI-dominated Planck 2018 results than previous analyses, suggesting slightly less tension between low and high multipoles. Using low-ℓ polarization information from LFI and WMAP, we find a best-fit value of τ = 0.066 ± 0.013, which is higher than the low value of τ = 0.052 ± 0.008 derived from Planck 2018 and slightly lower than the value of 0.069 ± 0.011 derived from the joint analysis of official LFI and WMAP products. Most importantly, however, we find that the uncertainty derived in the BEYONDPLANCK processing is about 30 % greater than when analyzing the official products, after taking into account the different sky coverage. We argue that this uncertainty is due to a marginalization over a more complete model of instrumental and astrophysical parameters, which results in more reliable and more rigorously defined uncertainties. We find that about 2000 Monte Carlo samples are required to achieve a robust convergence for a low-resolution cosmic microwave background (CMB) covariance matrix with 225 independent modes, and producing these samples takes about eight weeks on a modest computing cluster with 256 cores.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Performance Impacts to the NASA Artemis II Trajectory Correction Burn Placement

As NASA embarks to return humans to the lunar vicinity with the upcoming Artemis II mission, the selected free return trajectory taking the crew to the Moon in the Orion spacecraft is impacted by the execution of small trajectory correction burns to ensure the spacecraft stays on course for a successful return to Earth. The placement of these nominally zero translational maneuvers must account for the crew schedule, navigation tracking constraints, spacecraft venting, thermal and communication requirements, and a host of other programmatic factors. Understanding the influence the placement of these periodic burn corrections have on the integrated GN\&C performance can provide valuable insight to mission controllers and trajectory planning processes to untangle the complex trade space considered for both baseline and contingency scenarios. This sensitivity information can also be utilized to facilitate the optimized placement of these burns. This paper utilizes several techniques to systematically generate the performance impacts to the NASA Artemis II trajectory correction burn placement and demonstrate how to derive optimized locations that make the system robust to crew activity, maneuver execution errors, navigation uncertainty, orbit insertion errors, disturbance accelerations, and other system limitations.

GN&C↗

Global Sensitivity Analysis of Simulated Remote Sensing Polarimetric Observations Over Snow

This study presents a detailed theoretical assessment of the information content of passive polarimetric observations over snow scenes, using a global sensitivity analysis (GSA) method. Conventional sensitivity studies focus on varying a single parameter while keeping all other parameters fixed. In contrast, the GSA correctly addresses the covariance of state parameters across their entire parameter space, hence favoring a more correct interpretation of inversion algorithms and the optimal design of their state vectors. The forward simulations exploit a vector radiative transfer model to obtain the Stokes vector emerging at the top of the atmosphere for different solar zenith angles, when the bottom boundary consists of a vertically resolved snowpack of non-spherical grains. The presence of light-absorbing particulates (LAPs), either embedded in the snow or aloft in the atmosphere above in the form of aerosols, is also considered. The results are presented for a set of wavelengths spanning the visible (VIS), near-infrared (NIR), and shortwave infrared (SWIR) region of the spectrum. The GSA correctly captures the expected, high sensitivity of the reflectance to LAPs in the VIS–NIR and to grain size at different depths in the snowpack in the NIR–SWIR. With adequate viewing geometries, mono-angle measurements of total reflectance in the VIS–SWIR (akin to those of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, MODIS) resolve grain size in the top layer of the snowpack sufficiently well. The addition of multi-angle polarimetric observations in the VIS–NIR provides information on grain shape and microscale roughness. The simultaneous sensitivity in the VIS–NIR to both aerosols and snow-embedded impurities can be disentangled by extending the spectral range to the SWIR, which contains information on aerosol optical depth while remaining essentially unaffected when the same particulates are mixed with the snow. Multi-angle polarimetric observations can therefore (i) effectively partition LAPs between the atmosphere and the surface, which represents a notorious challenge for snow remote sensing based on measurements of total reflectance only and (ii) lead to better estimates of grain shape and roughness and, in turn, the asymmetry parameter, which is critical for the determination of albedo. The retrieval uncertainties are minimized when the degree of linear polarization is used in place of the polarized reflectance. The Sobol indices, which are the main metric for the GSA, were used to select the state parameters in retrievals performed on data simulated for multiple instrument configurations. Improvements in retrieval quality with the addition of measurements of polarization, multi-angle views, and different spectral channels reflect the information content, identified by the Sobol indices, relative to each configuration. The results encourage the development of new remote sensing algorithms that fully leverage multi-angle and polarimetric capabilities of modern remote sensors. They can also aid flight planning activities, since the optimal exploitation of the information content of multi-angle measurements depends on the viewing geometry. The better characterization of surface and atmospheric parameters in snow-covered regions advances research opportunities for scientists of the cryosphere and ultimately benefits albedo estimates in climate models.

remote sensing↗

Impact of Thermal Scattering Law on Similarity Assessment in Light-Water or Polyethylene-Moderated Systems

A collaborative effort between Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) is underway to provide a technical basis and methodology for the criticality safety community to use the sum of fractions (SoF) method for generating limits for mixtures of “selected actinide nuclides” included in the ANSI/ANS 8.15 standard. The PNNL scope in this project is to define a range of mixtures of 233 U, 235 U, and 239 Pu moderated with either light water or polyethylene and to examine the critical masses for these mixtures. The ORNL scope is primarily to provide validation support for these studies. More complete discussion of the project and its validation aspects will be presented at the upcoming International Conference on Nuclear Criticality Safety (ICNC) this Fall in Sendai, Japan. Clear differences in benchmark similarity to application systems as assessed by the integral parameter ck are noted in the validation studies performed as part of this project as a function of moderator. The c k value is a correlation coefficient that represents that amount of shared uncertainty in k eff due to cross sections between two systems. Individual nuclide-reaction contributions between the two systems can be simply summed to arrive at the total c k value. Specifically, the c k values for light-water–moderated solution experiments are higher for a water-moderated application than for a polyethylene-moderated application. This result is neither totally unexpected nor surprising, but the magnitude of the difference was difficult to anticipate. The TSUNAMI sequence, in the SCALE 6.2.4 code package developed by ORNL, was used to generate eigenvalues and reactivity effects with perturbation-theory based approach through sensitivity coefficients for all nuclides in the system with all reactions and energy groups. The TSUNAMI-Indices and Parameters (IP) sequence then uses the sensitivity data generated through TSUNAMI to generate relational parameters (i.e., c k ) to determine the degree of similarity between systems. One detail of the SCALE material and data implementation must be discussed at this point. Several thermal scattering laws (TSLs) are available for 1 H. SCALE uses a different nuclide ID number for each TSL; essentially, each version of 1 H is treated as a unique nuclide. For example, 1 H bound in water ( 1 H-H2O) is assigned the nuclide ID 1001, whereas 1 H bound in polyethylene (h-poly) is assigned the nuclide ID 9001001. The same cross section data are used for all reactions in 1 H, regardless of TSL, except for scattering below the TSL cutoff energy. TSUNAMI-IP treats different nuclide IDs as different nuclides; thus, no uncertainty is shared between 1 H-H2O and h-poly, despite much of the same data, including covariance data, being used for both nuclides. This presents a question: how much of the difference in assessed similarity between water- and polyethylene-moderated systems is due to the moderators, and how much is caused by the treatment of 1 H-H2O and h poly with cross section and covariance data. The extended edits generated by TSUANMI-IP allow for an investigation of this issue specifically, as well as a demonstration of the general techniques available within TSUNAMI to understand the results of the similarity assessment. This paper presents and analyzes the similarity assessment of both water- and polyethylene-moderated systems for a single benchmark: PST-002-001.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Representativeness assessment of the pan-Arctic eddy covariance site network and optimized future enhancements

Abstract. Large changes in the Arctic carbon balance are expected as warming linked to climate change threatens to destabilize ancient permafrost carbon stocks. The eddy covariance (EC) method is an established technique to quantify net losses and gains of carbon between the biosphere and atmosphere at high spatiotemporal resolution. Over the past decades, a growing network of terrestrial EC tower sites has been established across the Arctic, but a comprehensive assessment of the network's representativeness within the heterogeneous Arctic region is still lacking. This creates additional uncertainties when integrating flux data across sites, for example when upscaling fluxes to constrain pan-Arctic carbon budgets and changes therein. This study provides an inventory of Arctic (here > = 60∘ N) EC sites, which has also been made available online (https://cosima.nceas.ucsb.edu/carbon-flux-sites/, last access: 25 January 2022). Our database currently comprises 120 EC sites, but only 83 are listed as active, and just 25 of these active sites remain operational throughout the winter. To map the representativeness of this EC network, we evaluated the similarity between environmental conditions observed at the tower locations and those within the larger Arctic study domain based on 18 bioclimatic and edaphic variables. This allows us to assess a general level of similarity between ecosystem conditions within the domain, while not necessarily reflecting changes in greenhouse gas flux rates directly. We define two metrics based on this representativeness score: one that measures whether a location is represented by an EC tower with similar characteristics (ER1) and a second for which we assess if a minimum level of representation for statistically rigorous extrapolation is met (ER4). We find that while half of the domain is represented by at least one tower, only a third has enough towers in similar locations to allow reliable extrapolation. When we consider methane measurements or year-round (including wintertime) measurements, the values drop to about 1/5 and 1/10 of the domain, respectively. With the majority of sites located in Fennoscandia and Alaska, these regions were assigned the highest level of network representativeness, while large parts of Siberia and patches of Canada were classified as underrepresented. Across the Arctic, mountainous regions were particularly poorly represented by the current EC observation network. We tested three different strategies to identify new site locations or upgrades of existing sites that optimally enhance the representativeness of the current EC network. While 15 new sites can improve the representativeness of the pan-Arctic network by 20 %, upgrading as few as 10 existing sites to capture methane fluxes or remain active during wintertime can improve their respective ER1 network coverage by 28 % to 33 %. This targeted network improvement could be shown to be clearly superior to an unguided selection of new sites, therefore leading to substantial improvements in network coverage based on relatively small investments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Investigating Low-Altitude Constellations of Ad-Hoc Lunar PNT System for Distributed Spacecraft Autonomy

In this study, we examine a low-altitude Lunar Position, Navigation, and Timing (LPNT) constellations and the localization performance of Centralized Extended Kalman Filter (CEKF) and Decentralized Extended Kalman Filter (DEKF) algorithms. The primary investigation involves a 100-node swarm operating at a 100 km altitude, in contrast to previous studies that examined a 21-node asset in a frozen-orbit at 5,500 km. The autonomous operation of large-scale swarm is based on two-way Inter-Satellite Link (ISL) measurements, which involve pseudoranges and relative velocities among swarm nodes. We perform a numerical assessment of the two filtering approaches, utilizing ‘fully sampled’ measurements from all available assets as well as ‘two ISL’ measurements where each spacecraft is restricted to only two antennas. This research includes an analysis of CEKF under 2-ISL constraints and evaluates the performance of DEKF in a 100-node swarm, which has not been explored in previous studies. In addition, we examine the impact of increasing the sampling frequency for DEKF, showing that the update cycle can be shortened from a 10-minute interval. A novel approach for ‘2-ISL limited’ DEKF will also be introduced, using a matching formulation that exhaustively enumerates all potential matches. This study provides valuable insights into large-scale distributed swarm operations, considering various filter configurations, sampling frequencies, matching strategies, and scalability of CEKF and DEKF for low-altitude LPNT applications. The Lunar PNT technology plays a key role in providing reliable and robust navigation services on the Moon's surface and the South pole, where the primary Lunar missions are planned. To support upcoming Lunar missions, including small satellites from NASA's Commercial Lunar Payload Services program, the Lunar PNT system must be adaptable to smaller platforms like CubeSats. Driven by the growing involvement of public and private exploration partnerships, the traditional low Earth orbit missions are shifting to beyond geosynchronous orbit [1]. These upcoming missions aim to foster a sustainable and innovative exploration program, in collaboration with commercial and international partners, to facilitate human expansion throughout the solar system and return new knowledge and opportunities to Earth [2]. As part of this trend, there are increasing efforts to utilize science missions in Lunar orbit to develop a non-dedicated and ad-hoc PNT network system. Two traditional approaches, the Deep Space Network (DSN) and the weak signal Global Positioning System (GPS), are established deep-space navigation technologies for missions beyond the geosynchronous orbit. Beginning in 1958, the DSN was developed to communicate with the Explorer 1 spacecraft based on the use of radiometric tracking in spacecraft navigation [3]. The DSN is capable of providing nearly unfettered coverage to spacecraft beyond low-Earth orbit (LEO), however, increased space mission volume has created concerns about future expectations of DSN usage for spacecraft navigation [4]. For cislunar mission applications, the position accuracy using DSN achieves 100 m (3σ) with at least three geometrically diverse ground stations when using radiometric tracking alone [5]. The DSN's dependence on Earth-based ground stations restricts its operational capabilities to periods of Earth visibility. This limitation, coupled with its poor localization performance, renders the DSN unsuitable for future lunar missions that demand continuous tracking and precise positioning. To satisfy the increasing requirements of DSN in Lunar applications, spacecrafts are also required to improve their onboard antenna power and efficiency of the transmission. However, there is an important aggregate cost trade between adding capabilities to every spacecraft and adding to a capacity on the ground that serves multiple spacecraft [6]. A weak GPS system can provide PNT service while the user spacecraft is bound to the Moon, leveraging a single, steerable high gain antenna with the relatively narrow beam which includes all the sources in its field of view [7]. However, the higher the altitude the receiver is above the GPS constellations, the poorer and the weaker are the relative geometry and the received signal powers, respectively, leading to a significant navigation accuracy reduction [8]. The transmitted power becomes weaker with increasing distance from the Earth as well as signals tracked from one of the side lobes of the GPS antenna pattern. As a results, the number of visible satellites and relative geometric condition of the GPS satellites at very high altitude drops dramatically and reduces the navigation solution accuracy. Therefore, the weak GPS system is also not an ideal way to provide PNT service to upcoming Lunar missions when considering its limited geometric condition and the recued navigation accuracy. Another navigation approach on the Moon is being developed, similar to the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) on Earth, aiming to offer navigation service with continuous 24/7 coverage across the entire Lunar surface. For example, lunar communications relay and navigation systems (LCRNS) by NASA and Lunar navigation satellite systems (LNSS) by JAXA are designed to serve as dedicated Position, Navigation, and Timing (PNT) systems for the Moon. However, designing a dedicated LNSS and PNT service involves additional challenges, which are unique to the lunar environment, including limited payload capacity for the CubeSat platform, i.e., the size, weight, and power (SWaP) of the onboard clock, limited lunar ground monitoring stations, and limited financial investment as compared to the legacy Earth-GPS [9]. NASA’s focus on utilizing CubeSat platforms on the Moon leads to an alternative Lunar navigation platform that leverages the existing Lunar science and exploration assets. The small satellites used in Lunar missions can be used to create a low-cost, autonomous, ad-hoc, and on-demand mission-centric Lunar PNT swarm capable of providing PNT services to these low-cost lunar missions [10]. As upcoming Lunar missions will often operate at low-altitude about 30 km to 100 km for scientific observations and mapping purposes, the low-altitude orbital constellations could be employed to create an ad-hoc Lunar PNT system. However, several issues must be addressed, such as the instability of these orbits, which often require maintenance or are only suitable for short-duration missions, operating for fewer than 90 days. Additionally, at an altitude of 100 km, the satellites have a limited period during which they are above the horizon and capable of providing PNT service to users. The implementation of a non-dedicated, ad-hoc Lunar navigation constellation facilitates on-demand PNT services. A preliminary study of ad-hoc Lunar PNT system was conducted using 21 spacecraft in 5,5000 km altitude frozen orbits to test its feasibility and a basic performance of orbital asset localization among ad-hoc Lunar constellations in small satellites format [10]. These swarm assets are designed for autonomous localization with minimal Earth interaction, reducing dependency on bandwidth and ground resources. The design in [10] demonstrated the feasibility of a decentralized PNT approach, specifically employing a DEKF approach for state estimation, which helps minimize onboard operating costs. The DEKF method distributes computation across individual satellites, which lightens the computational load while maintaining accuracy in orbit ephemeris and clock offsets, similar to centralized systems [11]. In a follow-on study [12], each spacecraft was limited to 2 communications antennae, forcing the selection of measurements and scheduling spacecraft activities to perform the measurements. A matching algorithm is implemented to select the best measurements and schedule position estimation updates. The decentralized localization performance is also investigated with increasing levels of network degradation for swarm assets considering the impact of intermittent and permanent communication failure, to demonstrate the robustness and fidelity of the decentralized Lunar PNT service [13]. This study confirmed that the ad-hoc PNT constellations in frozen orbit are highly robust and resilient to communication failures. However, unlike frozen orbit swarm assets, the low-altitude satellites have a limited ground view at an altitude of 100 km, where the ad-hoc Lunar constellation consists of 98 low-altitude satellites, evenly distributed across seven circular polar orbital planes, alongside two satellites in a frozen orbit at an altitude of 5,500 km (Figure 1). Therefore, the number of satellites visible to ground users is significantly limited in low-altitude orbit constellations. As each visibility of a spacecraft remains intact for only a few ticks before it moves out of the field of view, the ground user encounters challenges in maintaining continuous navigation service, resulting in sparse availability and provision of Lunar PNT system. Consequently, service availability is primarily restricted to the Lunar South Pole region (Figure 2). Given these limitations and concerns, the localization performance of low-altitude swarm assets will be assessed in this study. We focus on the investigation of the localization performance of low-altitude swarm assets and ground users near the Lunar South Pole. The overall flow of the Lunar PNT simulation incorporates the DEKF approach of asset localization and the weighted least-squares approach in user localization (Figure 3). The autonomous Lunar PNT simulation is primarily implemented in MATLAB, where the DEKF based on the matching scheduler is implemented with Google’s OR-tools as a model builder and Gurobi optimization tool as a backend solver. The General Mission Analysis Tool (GMAT) is utilized to generate ephemeris data for swarm assets, and accounts for satellite orbital details, mass, and perturbations like solar radiation pressure and drag coefficients. Each ephemeris dataset is produced in the Moon International Celestial Reference Frame (ICRF) inertial coordinate system. For state estimation, the distributed swarm assets rely on two-way Inter-Satellite Link (ISL) measurements, which involve tracking pseudoranges and relative velocities between visible satellites and anchor nodes during each observation. Numerical evaluations of the decentralized localization process are conducted to demonstrate the feasibility of the low-altitude PNT system in providing reliable navigation services. The main approach involves using DEKF and CEKF to localize 100 satellites in low-altitude constellations, where the CEKF is implemented to serve as a baseline for comparing the performance of distributed algorithms. In both cases, we evaluate ‘fully sampled’ measurements from all available assets, and ‘two ISL’ measurements when spacecraft are constrained to have only two antennas. We test four estimation techniques: CEKF fully sampled, CEKF two ISL, DEKF fully sampled, and DEKF two ISL filters. As the DEKF update cycle is comprised of network setup, communication, and computations, a global broadcast network and 2-way ISL network setup will take from 4 to 6 minutes as maximum [12]. In this simulation, the DEKF update cycle is set to 10 minutes, including a 4-minute latency for obtaining and computing the actual measurement updates. We experiment an increased update cycle to demonstrate the feasibility and evaluate the impact on localization performance using various tuning values for measurement noise covariances (Figures 4 and 5). By comparing centralized and decentralized approaches using a matching algorithm, we analyze the influence of cross-correlation factors in the covariance matrix, assuming 100% reliability of all assets and measurements. The increased frequency and the adjustments of tuning parameters reveal distinct error patterns between the two scenarios. The localization accuracy of the swarm assets and ground users is assessed by taking the median error across 100 assets and one ground user (84.9°S, 137.5°E) over 7-day simulation period (Table 1). Since the user localization accuracy is significantly affected by the performance of the swarm assets, it is crucial to maintain high localization accuracy within the swarm. This study will continue to explore decentralized filtering for autonomous LPNT operations, with further investigation of an 'iterative' matching approach which enumerates every valid matching pair, planned for the following month.

Yeji Kim↗

From Depletion to Restoration: Lessons From Long‐Term Monitoring of Carbon Gains and Losses in Cropping Systems

As global atmospheric CO 2 rapidly approaches a key tipping point, there is an urgent need to implement strategies to reverse this pattern. A generally accepted understanding of carbon (C) in agricultural fields includes: (H1) substantial C loss occurs when natural vegetation is converted to crops, (H2) soils typically reach a steady-state C concentration under contemporary practices, and (H3) improved management or crop selection can enhance soil C stocks over time. Significant variability exists, but studies consistently show large C losses from agricultural ecosystems, supporting H1. Although steady-state C levels (H2) are commonly assumed, measuring C gains or losses in mature agroecosystems is challenging. Efforts to increase soil C storage (H3) have limited data due to the diversity of potential practices, compounded by substantial variability in soil C measurements. Here, long-term (7–17 year) ecosystem C flux data from diverse cropping systems revealed that conventionally tilled annual row crops (maize and soybean) act as significant long-term atmospheric C sources, challenging H2. Furthermore, conservation tillage practices reduced C losses compared with conventional tillage but showed minimal evidence for long-term ecosystem C storage, even after 20+ years. This indicates that no-till practices reduce C losses but imply that no soil C is added, challenging H3. By contrast, perennial Miscanthus × giganteus, Panicum virgatum, and restored tallgrass prairie systems store C at the ecosystem scale more effectively than minimally tilled annual row crops. Analysis over multiple years demonstrates significant ecosystem C storage with perennial crops, varying by species, starting in the first year of transition. These findings, although focused on one region, suggest that the assumptions of steady-state C levels and increased storage from conservation practices do not universally apply and that significant changes to agroecosystems are required to increase C storage.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗