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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 253 records · Page 14
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Decay studies of the 𝛽-delayed neutron emitters 87 Br and 88 Br measured by means of the Modular Total Absorption Spectrometer at ORNL HRIBF

The β decays of 87 Br, 88 Br, and 87 Kr were measured with the Modular Total Absorption Spectrometer (MTAS) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s Holifield Radioactive Ion Beam Facility (HRIBF). Both bromine isotopes are β-delayed neutron emitters that have large cumulative fission yields and were identified as top-priority cases for total absorption study by the Nuclear Energy Agency in 2007. Our investigations corroborate that the decay schemes of 87 Br and 88 Br suffer from the so-called pandemonium effect. Unique MTAS properties enable direct neutron measurements. Here, we present MTAS-derived β-delayed neutron spectra, β-delayed neutron emission probabilities of P n ( 87 Br) = 2.36(24)%, and P n ( 88 Br) = 6.4(6)%, and the β-delayed neutron transitions intensity of 4(2)% to the first excited 87 Kr state, populated in the β-neutron decay of 88Br. Incorporating new data into calculations of the electromagnetic decay heat component emitted during thermal neutron fission of 235 U and 239 Pu improves agreement with experimental data up to approximately 80 s after fission. The estimation of the nuclear reactor $\bar{ν}_e$ flux results in changes of up to 1% in the expected $\bar{ν}_e$ interactions with the detector material for 235 U, 238 U, 239Pu, and 241 Pu.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluating proxies for the drivers of natural gas productivity using machine-learning models

We report the extensive development of unconventional reservoirs using horizontal drilling and multistage hydraulic fracturing has generated large volumes of reservoir characterization and production data. The analysis of this abundant data using statistical methods and advanced machine-learning (ML) techniques can provide data-driven insights into well performance. Most predictive modeling studies have focused on the impact that different well completion and stimulation strategies have on well production but have not fully exploited the available in situ rock property data to determine its role in reservoir productivity. We have used machine-learning techniques to rank rock mechanical properties, microseismic attributes, and stimulation parameters in the order of their significance for predicting natural gas production from an unconventional reservoir. The data for this study came from a hydraulically fractured well in the Marcellus Shale in Monongalia County, West Virginia. The data classes included measurements aggregated by well completion stage that included (1) gas production, (2) well-log-derived measurements including bulk density, elastic moduli, shear impedance, compressional impedance, brittleness, and gamma measurements, (3) microseismic attributes, (4) long-period long-duration (LPLD) event counts, (5) fracture counts, and (6) stimulation parameters that included the fluid injection volume and average pumping pressure. To identify observable proxies for the drivers of gas production, we evaluated five commonly used ML approaches including multivariate adaptive regression spline, Gaussian mixture model, random forest, gradient boosting, and neural network. We selected five variables including LPLD event count, seismogenic b-value, hydraulic diffusivity, cumulative moment, and fluid volume as the features most likely to impact gas productivity at the stage level in the study area. The data-driven selection of these parameters for their importance in determining gas production can help reservoir engineers design more effective hydraulic-fracture treatments in the Marcellus Shale and other similar unconventional reservoirs. Plain language summary: We use machine-learning methods and data-driven selection of reservoir parameters to rank and better understand their importance in determining gas production, which can help reservoir engineers design more effective hydraulic-fracture treatments in the Marcellus Shale and other similar unconventional reservoirs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Pit growth kinetics in aluminum: effects of salt loading and relative humidity

Abstract The growth kinetics of localized corrosion, e.g. pits, in corrosive environments often controls the service life of metallic components. Yet, our understanding of these kinetics is largely based on coupon-level, e.g. mass-loss, studies which provide limited insights into the evolution of individual damage events. It is critical to relate observed cumulative loss trends, such as links between changing humidity and mass loss rates, to the growth kinetics of individual pits. Towards this goal, we leverage in-situ X-ray computed tomography to measure the growth rates of over sixty pits in aluminum in four different humid, chloride environments over ≈3 days of exposure. Pit growth rates and final volumes increased with increasing droplet volume, which was observed to increase with increasing humidity and salt loading. Two factors, droplet spreading and oxide jacking, dramatically increased pit growth rates and final volumes.

Noell, Philip J. (ORCID:0000000346998999)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Data for Responsiveness of Miscanthus and Switchgrass Yields to Stand Age and Nitrogen Fertilization: A Meta-regression Analysis

The compiled datasets include plot level observations of energy crops (miscanthus and switchgrass) from recent experimental field trials in the US including dry biomass yield, location, state, region, harvest year, growing season degree days (GDD), winter season heating degree days (HDD), growing season cumulative precipitation, annual nitrogen application rate, age of the pant when harvested, National Commodity Crop Productivity Index (NCCPI) values, and cultivar type (switchgrass) from various published and unpublished sources. The stata codes include estimation procedures for four different specifications, i.e., Model A includes deterministic effect without interaction terms; Model B includes deterministic effect with interaction terms (N2, age2, N × age, GDD2, precip2, N × NCCPI); Model C includes deterministic effect with interaction terms, study, and location random effect; Model D includes deterministic effect with interaction terms, harvest year augmented study, and location random effect.

Age↗
DOE OSTI2024

Private, public, and bottled drinking water: Shared contaminant-mixture exposures and effects challenge

Background: Humans are primary drivers of environmental–contaminant exposures worldwide, including in drinking-water (DW). In the United States, point-of-use DW (POU–DW) is supplied via private tapwater (TW), public-supply TW, and bottled water (BW). Differences in management, monitoring, and messaging and lack of directly–intercomparable exposure data influence the actual and perceived quality and safety of different DW supplies and directly impact consumer decision–making. Objectives: The purpose of this paper is to provide a meta-analysis (quantitative synthesis) of POU–DW contaminant–mixture exposures and corresponding potential human–health effects of private-TW, public-TW, and BW by aggregating exposure results and harmonizing apical–health–benchmark–weighted and bioactivity–weighted effects predictions across previous studies by this research group. Discussion: Simultaneous exposures to multiple inorganic and organic contaminants of known or suspected human-health concern are common across all three DW supplies, with substantial variability observed in each and no systematic difference in predicted cumulative risk between supplies. Differences in contaminant or contaminant–class exposures, with important implications for DW–quality improvements, were observed and attributed to corresponding differences in regulation and compliance monitoring. Conclusion: The results indicate that human-health risks from contaminant exposures are common to and comparable in all three DW–supplies, including BW. Importantly, this study’s target analytical coverage, which exceeds that currently feasible for water purveyors or homeowners, nevertheless is a substantial underestimation of the breadth of contaminant mixtures in the environment and potentially present in DW. Thus, the results emphasize the need for improved understanding of the adverse human-health implications of long-term exposures to low–level inorganic–/organic–contaminant mixtures across all three distribution pipelines and do not support commercial messaging of BW as a systematically safer alternative to public-TW. Regardless of the supply, increased public engagement in source-water protection and drinking–water treatment is necessary to reduce risks associated with long-term DW–contaminant exposures, especially in vulnerable populations, and to reduce environmental waste and plastics contamination.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

flat10MIP: an emissions-driven experiment to diagnose the climate response to positive, zero and negative CO2 emissions

Abstract. The proportionality between global mean temperature and cumulative emissions of CO2 predicted in Earth system models (ESMs) is the foundation of carbon budgeting frameworks. Deviations from this behavior could impact estimates of required net-zero timings and negative emissions requirements to meet the Paris Agreement climate targets. However, existing ESM diagnostic experiments do not allow for direct estimation of these deviations as a function of defined emissions pathways. Here, we perform a set of climate model diagnostic experiments for the assessment of transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions (TCRE), the Zero Emissions Commitment (ZEC), and climate reversibility metrics in an emissions-driven framework. The emissions-driven experiments provide consistent independent variables simplifying simulation, analysis and interpretation, with emissions rates more comparable to recent levels than existing protocols using model-specific compatible emissions from the CMIP DECK 1pctCO2 experiment, where emissions rates tend to increase during the experiment, such that at the time of CO2 doubling in year 70, emissions are much greater than present-day values. A base experiment, “esm-flat10”, has constant emissions of CO2 of 10 GtC per year (near-present-day values), and initial results show that the TCRE estimated in this experiment is about 0.1 K less than that obtained using 1pctCO2. A subset of ESMs exhibit land carbon sinks that saturate during this experiment. A branch experiment, esm-flat10-zec, illustrates that both positive and negative ZEC effects are less pronounced under esm-flat10 than under 1pctCO2 – the magnitude of ZEC50 in ESMs is, on average, reduced by 30 % compared with 1pctCO2 branch experiments. A final experiment, esm-flat10-cdr, assesses climate reversibility under negative emissions, where we find that peak warming may occur before or after net zero and that the asymmetry in temperature at a given level of cumulative emissions between the positive and negative emissions phases is well described by ZEC in most models. Further, we find that existing probabilistic simple climate model (SCM) ensembles tend to overestimate temperature reversibility compared with ESMs, highlighting the need for additional constraints. We propose a set of climate diagnostic indicators to quantify various aspects of climate reversibility. These experiments were suggested as potential candidates in CMIP7 and have since been adopted as “fast track” simulations.

Sanderson, Benjamin M↗
DOE OSTI2022

Pure quark and gluon observables in collinear drop

We construct a class of pure quark and gluon observables by using the collinear drop grooming technique. The construction is based on linear combinations of multiple cumulative distributions of the jet mass in collinear drop, whose specific weights are fully predicted perturbatively. This yields observables which obtain their values purely from quarks (or purely from gluons) in a wide region of phase space. We demonstrate this by showing that these observables are effective in two phase space regions, one dominated by perturbative resummation and one dominated by nonperturbative effects. The nonperturbative effects are included using shape functions which only appear as a common factor in the linear combinations constructed. We test this construction using a numerical analysis with next-to-leading logarithmic resummation and various shape function models, as well as analyzing these observables with PYTHIA and VINCIA. Choices for the collinear drop parameters are optimized for experimental use.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Small Reservoirs Offer a New Perspective on Flood Reduction in Large Basins

The flood reduction potential of individual reservoirs within a large river network continuum remains poorly understood due to the complex interplay between reservoir characteristics and network properties. Here we investigate whether a collection of relatively small reservoirs can play a significant role in mediating downstream floods and assess how that role may be influenced by reservoir network properties compared to traditionally known reservoir characteristics. Our unique contribution was the simulation of downstream flood inundation maps alongside peak flows for each of the 81 major reservoirs (6 × 104 to 8 × 109 m3) across 15,000 river reach segments, integrated into a process-based hydrologic model covering a 415,000 km2 region in the Texas Gulf Coast, United States. The three key takeaways from our study are as follows. (a) Smaller reservoirs can substantially reduce downstream flooding, suggesting that inclusion of large reservoirs—the traditional approach in flood risk management studies—may present only a partial picture. (b) Flood reduction by smaller reservoirs is more effective upstream, although this phenomenon may be linked with aridity and overall water availability. (c) While reservoir size matters, it is not the primary factor determining its downstream flood reduction potential; the influence of network properties, such as catchment area, the count of upstream reservoirs, the cumulative maximum storage capacity of upstream reservoirs, and Stream Order (i.e., location), is equally and often more important. The broader impact of our findings goes beyond just floods, providing foundational insights for addressing emerging challenges such as aging dams and river connectivity.

Patel, Krutikkumar [University of Texas at Arlingt↗
DOE OSTI2025

Reactive CO 2 capture and mineralization of magnesium hydroxide to produce hydromagnesite with inherent solvent regeneration

Valorization of multiple low value streams including CO 2 emissions and magnesium-hydroxide bearing mine tailings to produce magnesium carbonate through reactive CO 2 capture and mineralization provides a less explored opportunity to manage several gigatons of CO 2 emissions. To resolve the feasibility of converting magnesium hydroxide to magnesium carbonate through reactive CO 2 capture and mineralization, CO 2 capture solvents such as sodium glycinate are harnessed to capture CO 2 and react directly with Mg(OH) 2 to produce hydromagnesite (Mg 5 [(CO 3 )4(OH) 2 ]·4H 2 O). This approach eliminates the energy-intensive step of producing high purity CO 2 associated with regenerating the solvent, and redissolving CO 2 to produce magnesium carbonate. Interestingly, while temperatures below 50 °C facilitate CO 2 capture, the mineralization kinetics are slow. However, at higher temperatures, accelerated carbon mineralization is favored by the faster kinetics of Mg(OH) 2 dissolution and precipitation of magnesium carbonate. Reacting Mg(OH) 2 at 90 °C with 15 wt% solids in the presence of 2.5 M sodium glycinate after 3 hours under well-stirred conditions results in an extent of carbon mineralization of 75.5%. The theoretical maximum extent of carbon mineralization when hydromagnesite is formed is 80%. Pre-loading CO 2 on the solvent is also an effective approach to ensure that sufficient CO2 is available for reactive CO 2 capture and mineralization, particularly when dilute CO 2 and N 2 mixtures are used. Higher extents of carbon mineralization are associated with an increase in the particle size and a reduction in the cumulative pore volume. These insights unlock the feasibility of harnessing reactive CO 2 capture and mineralization as a pathway to convert magnesium-hydroxide bearing resources into industrially relevant magnesium carbonate products.

Reactive CO2↗
DOE OSTI2020

Cross-correlation of Planck CMB lensing with DESI-like LRGs

ABSTRACT Cross-correlations between the lensing of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) and other tracers of large-scale structure provide a unique way to reconstruct the growth of dark matter, break degeneracies between cosmology and galaxy physics, and test theories of modified gravity. We detect a cross-correlation between Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI)-like luminous red galaxies (LRGs) selected from DECam Legacy Survey imaging and CMB lensing maps reconstructed with the Planck satellite at a significance of S/N = 27.2 over scales ℓmin = 30, ℓmax = 1000. To correct for magnification bias, we determine the slope of the LRG cumulative magnitude function at the faint limit as s = 0.999 ± 0.015, and find corresponding corrections of the order of a few per cent for $C^{\kappa g}_{\ell }, C^{gg}_{\ell }$ across the scales of interest. We fit the large-scale galaxy bias at the effective redshift of the cross-correlation zeff ≈ 0.68 using two different bias evolution agnostic models: a HaloFit times linear bias model where the bias evolution is folded into the clustering-based estimation of the redshift kernel, and a Lagrangian perturbation theory model of the clustering evaluated at zeff. We also determine the error on the bias from uncertainty in the redshift distribution; within this error, the two methods show excellent agreement with each other and with DESI survey expectations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Correlations between Texture Profile Analysis and Sensory Evaluation of Cured Largemouth Bass Meat (Micropterus salmoides)

Texture is an important factor in evaluating the quality of aquatic products. To evaluate the texture properties of cured large mouth bass, edible sodium chloride (0, 1.0, 2.0, and 3.0%) was smeared to the bass meat. Texture profile analysis (TPA) and sensory evaluation were performed to evaluate the quality of the cured samples, and the correlations of the indexes in the two methods were analyzed. Two principal components were obtained from the TPA indexes and sensory evaluation indexes, and the cumulative variance contribution rates were 73.87% and 72.99%, respectively. Results from the principal component analysis showed that the main indicators that affected the TPA were gumminess and springiness, while those that affected sensory evaluation were chewiness and adhesiveness. The TPA index and sensory evaluation could be effectively improved when the sodium chloride added to the bass meat was 1%. In the correlation analysis, sensory springiness was negatively correlated with TPA hardness ( P < 0.05 , r = −0.553) but positively correlated with TPA chewiness ( P < 0.05 , r = 0.596). After stepwise regression analysis, the prediction equation between the sensory springiness and TPA hardness was obtained as SSp=5.770−0.002Ha. These results provide a basis for predicting the quality of large mouth bass cured products.

Li, Meijin↗
DOE OSTI2026

Mitigating Algorithmic Bias in Cancer Site Classification Models

Purpose Integrating artificial intelligence in cancer diagnostics has improved tumor classification beyond rule-based systems. Despite these advancements, these models may still encode demographic biases. We conducted a large-scale, applied bias-probing study of a deep learning–based cancer site classifier to quantify race information encoded in document embeddings. We then evaluated how performance changes when race-correlated embedding dimensions are removed in a post-training sensitivity analysis. Methods The cancer site classifier was trained using 3.5 million electronic cancer pathology reports from six of the National Cancer Institute's SEER registries. We trained a hierarchical self-attention network to generate 400-dimensional document embeddings. These embeddings were used to train two downstream, gradient-boosted decision tree classifiers: one to classify the cancer sites and another to predict racial categories. We identified overlapping features by intersecting the top 50 feature-importance rankings from the site and race models and computed their cumulative feature importance in each model. As a post hoc sensitivity analysis, we progressively pruned these overlapping dimensions, retrained the site model, and compared overall macro-F1 and accuracy, race-stratified macro-F1, and group fairness metrics on the basis of demographic parity and equalized odds before and after pruning. Results The analysis revealed minimal feature overlap between the cancer site and race prediction models, and the cumulative importance scores indicated a negligible influence of racial information on clinical predictions. Post-training pruning of overlapping features did not compromise the models' diagnostic accuracy, with a 0.07% loss in accuracy. Conclusion Our findings demonstrate that HiSAN-generated embeddings from SEER data can be used effectively in cancer site classification without significant demographic bias influencing the outcomes. Post-training pruning therefore functions as a practical audit and sensitivity check.

Shivanna, Abhishek [ORNL] (ORCID:0009000665228593)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modular High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor: Safety Design Approach

Deployment Objectives Flexibly co-locate with new industry users of nuclear energy Steam and electric cogeneration applications Direct process heat with temperature ranges from 700°C to 950°C Enabling Requirements Meet regulatory dose limits at the Exclusion Area Boundary (EAB) 25 rem Total Effective Dose Equivalent (TEDE) for duration of the release from 10 CFR 50.34 (10 CFR 52.79) at Exclusion Area Boundary (EAB) for design basis accidents EAB is estimated approximately 400 meters from the modular HTGR plant (to support co-location with industrial facilities) Meet safety goals for cumulative individual risk for normal and off-normal operation Design goal: meet EPA Protective Action Guides (PAGs) at EAB 1 rem TEDE for sheltering Design basis and beyond design basis events are considered Realistically evaluated at the EAB Emergency planning and protection

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Role of redox-active biochar with distinctive electrochemical properties to promote methane production in anaerobic digestion of waste activated sludge

Biochar has been reported as an effective additive to improve methane production during anaerobic digestion (AD). However, the mechanism for such a stimulatory impact remains unclear. Here we investigated the capability of three pyrolytic biochars with distinctive electrochemical properties (BC300, BC500, BC700) to promote methanogenic performance of anaerobic digesters treating waste activated sludge (WAS). The cumulative methane production and the maximum methane production rate were increased by 46.9% and 181.6%, respectively, with BC300 amendment. By characterizing the electrochemical properties of biochar, our research team found out that methane production in AD of sludge was positively correlated to biochar’s electron-donating capacity (EDC) rather than its bulk electrical conductivity. These results indicate that the electron transfer mediated by the redox-active functional groups may prevail over the direct electron migration as the predominant mechanism to facilitate interspecies electron transfer in syntrophic communities for enhanced methanogenesis. Microbial community analysis suggests that biochar enriched Methanosarcina and Methanobacterium. Overall, this study shows that functional groups-mediated electron transfer contributes greatly to the improved methane production in WAS digester with biochar amendment.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Much stronger tundra methane emissions during autumn-freeze than spring-thaw

Warming in the Arctic has been more apparent in the non-growing season than in the typical growing season. In this context, methane (CH 4 ) emissions in the non-growing season, particularly in the shoulder seasons, account for a substantial proportion of the annual budget. However, CH 4 emissions in spring and autumn shoulders are often underestimated by land models and measurements due to limited data availability and unknown mechanisms. This study investigates CH 4 emissions during spring thaw and autumn freeze using eddy covariance CH 4 measurements from three Arctic sites with multi-year observations. We find that the shoulder seasons contribute to about a quarter (25.6±2.3%, mean ± standard deviation) of annual total CH 4 emissions. Our study highlights the three to four times higher contribution of autumn freeze CH 4 emission to total annual emission than that of spring thaw. Autumn freeze exhibits significantly higher CH 4 flux (0.88±0.03 mg m -2 h -1 ) than spring thaw (0.48±0.04 mg m -2 h -1 ). The mean duration of autumn freeze (58.94±26.39 days) is significantly longer than that of spring thaw (20.94±7.79 days), which predominates the much higher cumulative CH 4 emission during autumn freeze (1212.31±280.39 mg m -2 yr -1 ) than that during spring thaw (307.39±46.11 mg m -2 yr -1 ). Near-surface soil temperatures cannot completely reflect the freeze-thaw processes in deeper soil layers and appears to have a hysteresis effect on CH 4 emissions from early spring thaw to late autumn freeze. Therefore, it is necessary to consider commonalities and differences in CH 4 emissions during spring thaw versus autumn freeze to accurately estimate CH 4 source from tundra ecosystems for evaluating carbon-climate feedback in Arctic.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Simple Acceptance Decisions and Acceptance Risk

Acceptance risk may be estimated using cumulative probability distribution functions applied to populations of measurands and test measurement values. “Simple acceptance” is a decision rule that sets the acceptance range of a test result equal to the tolerance range specification. While acceptance risk is comprised of both consumer risk and producer risk, this paper compares the effects of simple acceptance decision rules and guardbanding decision rules on consumer risk. Consumer risk is also known as the probability of false acceptance. The terms describe the risk of accepting test results as passing when the actual values exceed specification limits. False acceptance is only possible when the true value of a measurand is out of tolerance and the test result indicates that the measurand is within tolerance. Metrologists generally have some information about the test uncertainty regarding a specific acceptance test result. Along with a general lack of knowledge regarding the measurand population parameters, the complicated interplay between risk, dispersion, and central values generally prevents calibration laboratories from fully characterizing acceptance probabilities. Organizations that model the measurand populations can reduce consumer risk by avoiding certification of items whose measurand populations are not well centered. The models in this paper present a recurring trend: guardbanding reduces nonnegligible risks of false acceptance when compared to simple acceptance. However, guardbanding is not the most effective means of acceptance risk mitigation. Systematic characterization of measurand populations can provide the information a calibration laboratory needs to reliably control acceptance risk.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

How Today's Hydropower Impacts Tomorrow's Grid: Counterfactual Scenarios Showing Grid Impacts if Hydropower Goes Away

Amidst ongoing discussions about hydropower removals, retirements, and reduced availability due to drought and other environmental considerations, it is important to understand the long-term effects of reduced hydropower resources on the U.S. electric grid. This analysis uses the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS™) grid planning model to compare several representative scenarios of retiring hydropower and pumped storage hydropower (PSH) capacity over time and explore the overall implications on the U.S. grid from present day through 2050. Reduced hydropower capacity and generation is replaced by a mix of both fossil and non-fossil resources, including natural gas, wind, solar, and battery technologies. Additional natural gas usage leads to an increase in cumulative national electric sector carbon dioxide and criteria pollutant operating emissions of less than 1% in many scenarios but up to 4-5.3% in some cases. Total electric sector costs also increase by <1% in many scenarios but up to 3.6% in the most extreme scenarios where nearly all the hydropower and PSH fleet retires, equating to $\$$340 billion in undiscounted costs. National results indicate that absent additional interventions, retiring hydropower and PSH capacity could increase electric sector emissions and direct capital and operating costs. However, more focused analysis is required to evaluate specific asset-level, local, and regional implications, and a broader scope is necessary to weigh these electric sector impacts alongside economic, ecological, water management, and other cross-sectoral effects that could be either negative or positive.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Situational awareness-enhancing community-level load mapping with opportunistic machine learning

Motivated by present and forthcoming challenges in the adoption and integration of distributed renewable energy, we develop a machine learning (ML) approach that builds short-fuse mappings connecting the occasionally-unobservable true load in one target community with information-rich signals collected from relatively more instrumented reference communities. Our setting is inspired by and tailored to target communities with significant unobservable behind-the-meter solar generation, where true load (a relatively well-behaved quantity of interest to grid operators) is hard to discern during daytime due to insufficient instrumentation and/or privacy reasons, but that can be related to reference communities with low unobservable distributed variable generation or with sufficient instrumentation. The developed mapping, herein realized with Support Vector Machine regression, is built using nighttime data from all communities, when their distributed generation is low or zero. Our ML algorithm opportunistically learns to correlate signals of interest and then is operationally used the next day to shed light into target community load evolution. The mapping is subsequently rebuilt, rolling its short-fuse scope perpetually forward in time. Here, we demonstrate the efficacy of our approach on nine synthetically generated topologies and associated timeseries stemming from real-world data, on which we observe cumulative error performance that yields lower than 10% and 15% daily-averaged mean absolute percentage errors in target community load estimation on more than about 75% and 90% of days, respectively, in multiple yearly evaluations that shed light on long-term performance also under seasonal and one-off effects. The proposed ML-powered methodology can offer grid operators much-improved visibility into a previously obscure space and can also serve as an additional source of information in broader, multi-modal solar disaggregation solutions.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗