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DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation and improvement of the parameterization of aerosol hygroscopicity in global climate models using in-situ surface measurements (Final Report)

Aerosols are tiny particles suspended on the atmosphere that can interact with incoming solar radiation and affect the Earth radiative budget. They do so by scattering and absorbing solar radiation, and these properties vary depending on the aerosol size and chemical composition. Moreover, by taking up water from the surrounding air, hygroscopic aerosol particles will grow in size and change their chemical composition, thus modifying their optical properties (scattering and absorption) and their final impact on radiative forcing calculations. An accurate knowledge of aerosol hygroscopicity is crucial for estimating the net radiative impact of aerosols. We took a three-pronged approach to improve our understanding of aerosol hygroscopicity and how it is implemented in Earth system models. In the first part of our project, we developed a benchmark dataset from existing aerosol hygroscopic growth measurements made by tandem nephelometer humidogram systems. We analyzed, using a standardized methodology, observations from 26 in-situ stations around the globe. Measurement data was collected from multiple data providers, reviewed and harmonized to create a consistent dataset of the scattering enhancement factor due to aerosol water uptake. This dataset is archived in several publicly available databases for use by interested researchers. In the second part of the project, we used the benchmark hygroscopicity dataset to perform a global study on aerosol hygroscopicity and aerosol optical properties. Measurements show a global picture of scattering enhancement with larger values for Arctic and marine sites and lower for urban and desert sites. We assessed the RH dependence of aerosol radiative forcing and showed that the overall effect of aerosol hygroscopicity on DARF is an increase in the absolute forcing effect (negative sign) by a factor of up to 4 compared to dry conditions (RH<40%). Finally, we explored using aerosol single scattering albedo (SSA) and scattering Angstrom exponent (SAE) as possible proxies for aerosol hygroscopicity. SSA showed more promise as a surrogate for the scattering enhancement factor than SAE, but neither was ideal. In the third part of the project we evaluated the output of ten Earth system models (ESMs) against the benchmark hygroscopicity dataset. ESMs utilize various schemes for aerosol hygroscopicity which had not been previously tested against observations on a global scale. We found that ESMs currently overestimate scattering enhancement due to hygroscopic growth. Model parameterizations of hygroscopicity and model chemistry are two main factors driving the observed diversity in hygroscopicity simulations among the models. In addition, our study makes several suggestions for modelers, including improving the parameterizations of organic and sea salt aerosol hygroscopicity. Future hygroscopicity model evaluation experiments should include the model data related to particles size which was not available for our study.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

An adjoint-based optimization method for jointly inverting heterogeneous material properties and fault slip from earthquake surface deformation data

SUMMARY Analysis of tectonic and earthquake-cycle associated deformation of the crust can provide valuable insights into the underlying deformation processes including fault slip. How those processes are expressed at the surface depends on the lateral and depth variations of rock properties. The effect of such variations is often tested by forward models based on a priori geological or geophysical information. Here, we first develop a novel technique based on an open-source finite-element computational framework to invert geodetic constraints directly for heterogeneous media properties. We focus on the elastic, coseismic problem and seek to constrain variations in shear modulus and Poisson’s ratio, proxies for the effects of lithology and/or temperature and porous flow, respectively. The corresponding nonlinear inversion is implemented using adjoint-based optimization that efficiently reduces the cost function that includes the misfit between the calculated and observed displacements and a penalty term. We then extend our theoretical and numerical framework to simultaneously infer both heterogeneous Earth’s structure and fault slip from surface deformation. Based on a range of 2-D synthetic cases, we find that both model parameters can be satisfactorily estimated for the megathrust setting-inspired test problems considered. Within limits, this is the case even in the presence of noise and if the fault geometry is not perfectly known. Our method lays the foundation for a future reassessment of the information contained in increasingly data-rich settings, for example, geodetic GNSS constraints for large earthquakes such as the 2011 Tohoku-oki M9 event, or distributed deformation along plate boundaries as constrained from InSAR.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

DOE OSTI2024

Permeability and Induced Polarization of Mudstones

Electrical measurements can be used to estimate hydraulic properties such as permeability ( k ) in sedimentary rocks. Previous work has focused on sandstones, siltstones, and carbonates, while investigations on mudstones have rarely been reported. In this study, we report on electrical geophysical measurements for 23 mudstone samples using an experimental approach designed to reliably saturate these low permeability mudstones. The modified Hagen-Poiseuille model linking permeability to the formation factor ( F ) and an effective pore radius ( r ) provides an excellent fit to the data set with a near-constant pore radius, indicating that the effective porosity (1/ F ) is the controlling factor on k . In these samples, the surface area normalized to pore volume ( S por ), frequently used in permeability estimation models, varies by 1–2 orders of magnitude and is thus not a reliable proxy of the inverse effective hydraulic radius. The formation factor also exerts the primary control on induced polarization (IP) parameters, whereas Spor shows no relation to the IP parameters. A strong linear relationship is found between IP parameters (imaginary conductivity and normalized chargeability) and surface conductivity, although the proportionality factor is significantly lower than those observed in more permeable rocks and sediments. Apparent relationships between the polarization strength-derived and time constant-derived geophysical length scales and the effective hydraulic radius appear to be driven by variations in the electrochemical parameters (i.e., specific polarizability and diffusion coefficient). Overall, these findings emphasize that predicting hydraulic properties from electrical measurements in fine-grained rocks remains challenging and requires further investigation into the electrochemical properties involved.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1998

Study of Magnetic Structure in the Solar Photosphere and Chromosphere

This grant funded an observational and theoretical program to study the structure and dynamics of the solar photosphere and low chromosphere, and the spectral signatures that result. The overall goal is to learn about mechanisms that cause heating of the overlying atmosphere, and produce variability of solar emission in spectral regions important for astrophysics and space physics. The program exploited two new ground-based observational capabilities: one using the Swedish Solar Telescope on La Palma for very high angular resolution observations of the photospheric intensity field (granulation) and proxies of the magnetic field (G-band images); and the other using the Near Infrared Magnetograph at the McMath-Pierce Solar Facility to map the spatial variation and dynamic behavior of the solar temperature minimum region using infrared CO lines. We have interpreted these data using a variety of theoretical and modelling approaches, some developed especially for this project. Previous annual reports cover the work done up to 31 May 1997. This final report summarizes our work for the entire period, including the period of no-cost extension from 1 June 1997 through September 30 1997. In Section 2 we discuss observations and modelling of the photospheric flowfields and their consequences for heating of the overlying atmosphere, and in Section 3 we discuss imaging spectroscopy of the CO lines at 4.67 mu.

Noyes, Robert W.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Modeling a Carrington-Scale Stellar Superflare and Coronal Mass Ejection from K(exp 1) Cet

Observations from the Kepler mission have revealed frequent superﬂares on young and active solar-like stars. Superﬂares result from the large-scale restructuring of stellar magnetic ﬁelds, and are associated with the eruption of coronal material (a coronal mass ejection, or CME) and energy release that can be orders of magnitude greater than those observed in the largest solar ﬂares. These catastrophic events, if frequent, can signiﬁcantly impact the potential habitability of terrestrial exoplanets through atmospheric erosion or intense radiation exposure at the surface. We present results from numerical modeling designed to understand how an eruptive superﬂare from a young solar-type star, κ(exp 1)Cet, could occur and would impact its astrospheric environment. Our data-inspired, three- dimensional magnetohydrodynamic modeling shows that global-scale shear concentrated near the radial-ﬁeld polarity inversion line can energize the closed-ﬁeld stellar corona sufﬁciently to power a global, eruptive superﬂare that releases approximately the same energy as the extreme 1859 Carrington event from the Sun. We examine proxy measures of synthetic emission during the ﬂare and estimate the observational signatures of our CME-driven shock, both of which could have extreme space-weather impacts on the habitability of any Earth-like exoplanets. We also speculate that the observed 1986 Robinson-Bopp superﬂare from κ(exp 1)Cet was perhaps as extreme for that star as the Carrington ﬂare was for the Sun.

Lynch, Benjamin J.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Ultra-short-period Planets Are Stable against Tidal Inspiral

It has been unambiguously shown both in individual systems and at the population level that hot Jupiters experience tidal inspiral before the end of their host stars’ main-sequence lifetimes. Ultra-short-period (USP) planets have orbital periods P < 1 day, rocky compositions, and are expected to experience tidal decay on similar timescales to hot Jupiters if the efficiency of tidal dissipation inside their host stars parameterized as Q{sub ∗}{sup ′} is independent of P and/or secondary mass M {sub p}. Any difference between the two classes of systems would reveal that a model with constant Q{sub ∗}{sup ′} is insufficient. If USP planets experience tidal inspiral, then USP planet systems will be relatively young compared to similar stars without USP planets. Because it is a proxy for relative age, we calculate the Galactic velocity dispersions of USP planet candidate host and non-host stars using data from Gaia Data Release 2 supplemented with ground-based radial velocities. We find that main-sequence USP planet candidate host stars have kinematics consistent with similar stars in the Kepler field without observed USP planets. This indicates that USP planet hosts have similar ages to field stars and that USP planets do not experience tidal inspiral during the main-sequence lifetimes of their host stars. The survival of USP planets requires that Q{sub ∗}{sup ′} ≳ 10{sup 7} at P ≈ 0.7 day and M{sub p}≈2.6 M{sub ⊕}. This result demands that Q{sub ∗}{sup ′} depend on the orbital period and/or mass of the secondary in the range 0.5 day≲P≲5 days and 1 M{sub ⊕}≲M{sub p}≲1000 M{sub ⊕}.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Illustrating the Spatiotemporal Complexity of No2 Columns Using A Multi-Perspective Observing System: Moving Toward Geostationary Product Validation and Applications

As a precursor to secondary pollutants like ozone and PM2.5, nitrogen dioxide (NO2) is crucial to understand when addressing air quality issues. However, due to NO2’s short lifetime during the daytime and complexity of emission sources in urbanized regions, interpreting datasets from ground or satellite perspectives alone are challenged by variance in spatial and temporal resolutions. High resolution airborne mapping (< 1 km) of NO2 column densities across morning, midday, and afternoon add a unique perspective toward interpreting satellite data with respect to ground-measurements. This presentation focuses on the interpretation of spatiotemporal complexity of NO2 columns from the Synergistic TEMPO Air Quality Science Study (STAQS). The mission’s goal is to integrate geostationary observations from Tropospheric Emissions: Monitoring of Pollution (TEMPO) with traditional and enhanced air quality monitoring to improve the understanding of air quality science for increased societal benefit. We will demonstrate the interweaved perspective of NO2 columns from ground-based Pandora spectrometers and satellite-based observations (e.g., TROPOMI) as compared to high spatial resolution airborne observations from the GEOstationary Coastal and Air Pollution Events (GEO-CAPE) Airborne Simulator (GCAS). This includes the evaluation of each dataset through comparison to each other to identify potential biases in data products and the impact of heterogeneity on these comparisons. Airborne data will also be used as a proxy for geostationary observations with morning, midday, and afternoon raster maps collected over four cities (Los Angeles, Chicago, Toronto, and New York City). Finally, recent research outcomes will be presented to demonstrate how airborne and geostationary observations can be used to evaluate emission inventories and air quality models.

Laura Judd↗

DOE OSTI2026

Post-fire time series of sensor and geochemistry sample data from surface water, groundwater, precipitation, soil, and vegetation across Oak Creek watershed, Washington

This dataset supports a broader study examining wildfire impacts on hydrologic connectivity across 5 sites within the Oak Creek watershed and the resulting biogeochemical impacts. Stream sites were selected using the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS) hydrologic model to identify locations with varying groundwater contributions and hydrologic responses across different burn severity scenarios. The Retreat Fire burned from July 23 to August 2 in 2024, affecting the five study sites at varying burn severities. Each site is equipped with YSI EXO2 sondes logging sub-hourly throughout the year, and grab samples are collected approximately every six weeks. YSI sondes are used to measure temporally resolved proxies for groundwater inputs (specific conductivity) and organic matter (fluorescent dissolved organic matter; fDOM) along with basic water quality and depth. Grab samples of surface water, groundwater, and precipitation are analyzed for water stable isotopes and conductivity to understand endmembers for hydrologic mixing Grab samples of surface water, groundwater, soil water, and litter/vegetation/soil leachates are analyzed for organic matter composition measured by Fourier-Transform Ion Cyclotron Resonance Mass Spectrometry (FTICR-MS) to understand organic matter dynamics. Game camera photos are provided in a separate data package available at https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/datasets/doi:10.15485/3018598. Future versions of this dataset will include time series data from YSI EXO2 sondes (fDOM, dissolved oxygen, temperature, depth, specific conductance, turbidity, pH), BaroTROLL sensors (air temperature and barometric pressure), rain gauges (precipitation), and data from the soil and vegetation samples. Because this study is ongoing, this data package will be updated regularly to include newly collected data and the additional data types. For details on how to navigate data packages generated by this project, see https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/portals/PNNLRiverCorridorSFA/About. In addition to a readme, this data package also includes a file-level metadata (FLMD) file that describes each file and a data dictionary (DD) that describes all column/row headers and variable definitions. This dataset is comprised of (1) a folder of field photos; (2) a folder of surface water sample data; (3) a folder of raw Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FTICR-MS) data; (4) a data checks report; (5) file-level metadata; (6) data dictionary; (7) field metadata; (8) readme; (9) international generic sample number (IGSN) mapping file; and (10) field protocols. The sample data subfolder contains (1) dissolved organic carbon (DOC, measured as non-purgeable organic carbon, NPOC) data and averages; (2) total dissolved nitrogen data and averages; (3) stable water isotopes and averages; (4) methods codes; (5) FTICR-MS methods; and (15) a subfolder of 9.4 Tesla (9.4T) FTICR-MS data. This folder contains the processed data and three subfolders, one containing the .xml files, one containing the water CoreMS output files, and the other containing instructions and scripts for processing the files in CoreMS (https://github.com/EMSL-Computing/CoreMS). All files are .csv, .pdf, .R, .xml, .d, .html, .Rmd, .py, .cal, .json, .jpg, .jpeg, .png, .mov, or .mp4.

Biogeochemistry↗

DOE OSTI2024

Reviews and syntheses: Opportunities for robust use of peak intensities from high-resolution mass spectrometry in organic matter studies

Abstract. Earth's biogeochemical cycles are intimately tied to the biotic and abiotic processing of organic matter (OM). Spatial and temporal variations in OM chemistry are often studied using direct infusion, high-resolution Fourier transform mass spectrometry (FTMS). An increasingly common approach is to use ecological metrics (e.g., within-sample diversity) to summarize high-dimensional FTMS data, notably Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FT-ICR MS). However, problems can arise when FTMS peak-intensity data are used in a way that is analogous to abundances in ecological analyses (e.g., species abundance distributions). Using peak-intensity data in this way requires the assumption that intensities act as direct proxies for concentrations. Here, we show that comparisons of the same peak across samples (within-peak) may carry information regarding variations in relative concentration, but comparing different peaks (between-peak) within or between samples does not. We further developed a simulation model to study the quantitative implications of using peak intensities to compute ecological metrics (e.g., intensity-weighted mean properties and diversity) that rely on information about both within-peak and between-peak shifts in relative abundance. We found that, despite analytical limitations in linking concentration to intensity, ecological metrics often perform well in terms of providing robust qualitative inferences and sometimes quantitatively accurate estimates of diversity and mean molecular characteristics. We conclude with recommendations for the robust use of peak intensities for natural organic matter studies. A primary recommendation is the use and extension of the simulation model to provide objective guidance on the degree to which conceptual and quantitative inferences can be made for a given analysis of a given dataset. Broad use of this approach can help ensure rigorous scientific outcomes from the use of FTMS peak intensities in environmental applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Practical Considerations using Weighted-Acceleration Compensation Techniques for Dynamic Force Measurements in Wind Tunnels

Most wind tunnel force measurement systems are designed and calibrated for high-accuracy static measurements, but may have limited ability to sense dynamic forces and moments. As a means to improve the measurement bandwidth of dynamic forces, researchers have proposed using a weighted-acceleration technique, which uses accelerometer data to compensate and correct for system dynamics. The sum of weighted-accelerations method is attractive as the acceleration data applies a correction to the traditional static measurements. The focus of this paper is on practical aspects of implementing a weighted-acceleration technique in an experimental arrangement. A formulation of the weighted-acceleration methodology is validated on a reduced-order model and demonstrated on a tabletop experiment that serves as a proxy to a wind tunnel force measurement system. As part of this system, a two component normal force and pitching moment balance was designed and fabricated. A static and dynamic calibration of the system was performed, and the weighted-acceleration technique was used to reconstruct impact forces acting on the system. Practical considerations of the experimental design that improve the success of the methodology are discussed.

Dynamic force measurement↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Practical Considerations using Weighted-Acceleration Compensation Techniques for Dynamic Force Measurements in Wind Tunnels

Dynamic force measurement↗

NASA NTRS2017

Meteoroid Bulk Density and Ceplecha Types

The determination of asteroid bulk density is an important aspect of Near Earth Object (NEO) characterization. A fraction of meteoroids originate from asteroids (including some NEOs), thus in lieu of mutual perturbations, satellites, or expensive spacecraft missions, a study of meteoroid bulk densities can potentially provide useful insights into the densities of NEOs and PHOs (Potentially Hazardous Objects). Meteoroid bulk density is still inherently difficult to measure, and is most often determined by modeling the ablation of the meteoroid. One approach towards determining a meteoroid density distribution entails using a more easily measured proxy for the densities, then calibrating the proxy with known densities from meteorite falls, ablation modelling, and other sources. An obvious proxy choice is the Ceplecha type, KB (Ceplecha, 1958), which is thought to indicate the strength of a meteoroid and often correlated to different bulk densities in literature. KB is calculated using the air density at the beginning height of the meteor, the initial velocity, and the zenith angle of the radiant; quantities more readily determined than meteoroid bulk density itself. Numerical values of K(sub B) are sorted into groups (A, B, C, etc.), which have been matched to meteorite falls or meteor showers with known composition such as the porous Draconids. An extensive survey was conducted to establish the strength of the relationship between bulk density and K(sub B), specifically looking at those that additionally determined K(sub B) for the meteors. In examining the modeling of high-resolution meteor data from Kikwaya et al. (2011), the correlation between K(sub B) and bulk density was not as strong as hoped. However, a distinct split by dynamical type was seen with Jovian Tisserand parameter (T(sub J)), with meteoroids from Halley Type comets (T(sub J) < 2) exhibiting much lower bulk densities than those originating from Jupiter Family comets and asteroids (T(sub J) > 2). Therefore, this work indicates that the dynamical classification of a meteoroid is a better indicator of the density than the strength proxy, a somewhat surprising result.

Blaauw, R. C.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Super-Resolved Single-Molecule Tracking Studies of Rhodamine B Accumulation on Fresh and Aged Polyethylene Terephthalate

It is well-known that toxic organic micropollutants (OMs) accumulate on the surfaces of microplastics. However, much remains to be learned about the exact molecular level mechanisms of OM accumulation and how these evolve as the plastics age. In this work, super-resolved single-molecule tracking (SMT) is used for the first time to investigate the accumulation of Rhodamine B (RhB) dye on fresh and artificially aged polyethylene terephthalate (PET) surfaces. PET thin films serve as models for microplastics, while RhB serves as a proxy for the OMs they accumulate. Artificial aging of the films is accomplished by exposing them in a UV-ozone chamber. Water contact angle, spectroscopic ellipsometry, and carbonyl index measurements reveal a gradual decrease in film hydrophobicity, thickness, and carbonyl content with age. Atomic force microscopy (AFM) data reveal an increase in surface roughness and confirm that the films remain largely intact and continuous across the aging times explored. In SMT experiments, wide-field fluorescence videos acquired from the water/PET interface under 7.5 pM RhB reveal both mobile and immobile dye molecules. Measurements of the frame-to-frame displacements of the dye show that diffusion occurs by a desorption-mediated mechanism and that the diffusion rate varies with PET film age. The surface density of mobile dye molecules decreases with increasing PET age, while the population of immobile molecules becomes relatively larger, suggesting an age-dependent transformation of the mechanism(s) by which the dye is accumulated. SMT data reveal that both mobile and immobile molecules repeatedly adsorb over the same surface sites, consistent with the emergence of nanoscale PET surface heterogeneity also revealed by AFM. Estimates of the adsorption coefficients are obtained using a nearest-neighbor analysis, giving values from 9.9 × 10 5 to 2.1 × 10 6 M –1 for immobile molecules and from 1.8 × 10 5 to 2.5 × 10 5 M –1 for mobile molecules on fresh and 5 min aged PET, respectively. Here, anomalous age-dependent variations in the velocity of molecular motion on the PET surface and in the population of immobile molecules are shown to correlate with changes in the strength of RhB adsorption.

Adsorption↗

NASA NTRS2011

Model, Proxy and Isotopic Perspectives on the East African Humid Period

Both North and East Africa experienced more humid conditions during the early and mid-Holocene epoch (11,000-5000yr BP; 11-5 ka) relative to today. The North African Humid Period has been a major focus of paleoclimatic study, and represents a response of the hydrological cycle to the increase in boreal summer insolation and associated ocean, atmosphere and land surface feedbacks. Meanwhile, the mechanisms that caused the coeval East African Humid Period are poorly understood. Here, we use results from isotopeenabled coupled climate modeling experiments to investigate the cause of the East African Humid Period. The modeling results are interpreted alongside proxy records of both water balance and the isotopic composition of rainfall. Our simulations show that the orbitally-induced increase in dry season precipitation and the subsequent reduction in precipitation seasonality can explain the East African Humid Period, and this scenario agrees well with regional lake level and pollen paleoclimate data. Changes in zonal moisture flux from both the Atlantic and Indian Ocean account for the simulated increase in precipitation from June through November. Isotopic paleoclimate data and simulated changes in moisture source demonstrate that the western East African Rift Valley in particular experienced more humid conditions due to the influx of Atlantic moisture and enhanced convergence along the Congo Air Boundary. Our study demonstrates that zonal changes in moisture advection are an important determinant of climate variability in the East African region.

Tierney, Jessica E.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Carbon and Water Fluxes of the Boreal Evergreen Needleleaf Forest Biome Constrained by Assimilating Ecosystem Carbonyl Sulfide Flux Observations

Gross primary production (GPP) by boreal forests is highly sensitive to environmental changes. However, GPP simulated by land surface models (LSMs) remains highly uncertain due to the lack of direct photosynthesis observations at large scales. Carbonyl sulfide (COS) has emerged as a promising proxy to improve the representation of GPP in LSMs. Because COS is absorbed by vegetation following the same diffusion pathway as CO2 during photosynthesis and not emitted back to the atmosphere, incorporating a mechanistic representation of vegetation COS uptake in LSMs allows using COS observations to refine GPP representation. Here, we perform ecosystem COS flux and GPP data assimilations to constrain the COS- and GPP-related parameters in the ORCHIDEE LSM for boreal evergreen needleleaf forests (BorENF). Assimilating ecosystem COS fluxes at Hyytiälä forest increases the simulated net ecosystem COS uptake by 14%. This increase largely results from changes in the internal conductance to COS, highlighting the need to improve the representation of COS internal diffusion and consumption. Moreover, joint assimilation of ecosystem COS flux and GPP at Hyytiälä improves the simulated latent heat flux, contrary to the GPP-only data assimilation, which fails to do so. Finally, we scaled this assimilation framework up to the boreal region and find that the joint assimilation of COS at Hyytiälä and GPP fluxes at 10 BorENF sites increases the modeled vegetation COS uptake up to 18%, but not GPP. Therefore, this study encourages the use of COS flux observations to inform GPP and latent heat flux representations in LSMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Accurate model of the projected velocity distribution of galaxies in dark matter haloes

ABSTRACT We present a per cent-level accurate model of the line-of-sight velocity distribution of galaxies around dark matter haloes as a function of projected radius and halo mass. The model is developed and tested using synthetic galaxy catalogues generated with the UniverseMachine run on the Multi-Dark Planck 2 N-body simulations. The model decomposes the galaxies around a cluster into three kinematically distinct classes: orbiting, infalling, and interloping galaxies. We demonstrate that: (1) we can statistically distinguish between these three types of galaxies using only projected line-of-sight velocity information; (2) the halo edge radius inferred from the line-of-sight velocity dispersion is an excellent proxy for the three-dimensional halo edge radius; and (3) we can accurately recover the full velocity dispersion profile for each of the three populations of galaxies. Importantly, the velocity dispersion profiles of the orbiting and infalling galaxies contain five independent parameters – three distinct radial scales and two velocity dispersion amplitudes – each of which is correlated with mass. Thus, the velocity dispersion profile of galaxy clusters has inherent redundancies that allow us to perform non-trivial systematics checks from a single data set. We discuss several potential applications of our new model for detecting the edge radius and constraining cosmology and astrophysics using upcoming spectroscopic surveys.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

NASA NTRS2022

Simulations of Firn Processes Over the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets: 1980-2021

Conversion of altimetry-derived ice-sheet volume change to mass requires an understanding of the evolution of the combined ice and air content within the firn column. In the absence of suitable techniques to observe the changes to the firn column across the entirety of an ice sheet, the firn column processes are typically modeled. Here, we present new simulations of firn processes over the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (GrIS and AIS) using the Community Firn Model and atmospheric reanalysis variables for more than four decades. A data set of more than 250 measured depth–density profiles from both ice sheets provides the basis of the calibration of the dry-snow densification scheme. The resulting scheme results in a reduction in the rate of densification, relative to a commonly used semi-empirical model, through a decreased dependence on the accumulation rate, a proxy for overburden stress. The 1980–2020 modeled firn column runoff, when combined with atmospheric variables from MERRA-2, generates realistic mean integrated surface mass balance values for the Greenland (+390 Gt yr(exp −1)) and Antarctic (+2612 Gt yr(exp −1)) ice sheets when compared to published model-ensemble means. We find that seasonal volume changes associated with firn air content are on average approximately 2.5 times larger than those associated with mass fluxes from surface processes for the AIS and 1.5 times larger for the GrIS; however, when averaged over multiple years, ice and air-volume fluctuations within the firn column are of comparable magnitudes. Between 1996 and 2019, the Greenland Ice Sheet lost nearly 5% of its firn air content, indicating a reduction in the total meltwater retention capability. Nearly all (94 %) of the meltwater produced over the Antarctic Ice Sheet is retained within the firn column through infiltration and refreezing.

Greenland↗

DOE OSTI2024

The Role of Data Filtering in Open Source Software Ranking and Selection

Faced with more than 100M open source projects, a more manageable small subset is needed for most empirical investigations. More than half of the research papers in leading venues investigated filtering projects by some measure of popularity with explicit or implicit arguments that unpopular projects are not of interest, may not even represent "real" software projects, or that less popular projects are not worthy of study. However, such filtering may have enormous effects on the results of the studies if and precisely because the sought-out response or prediction is in any way related to the filtering criteria.This paper exemplifies the impact of this common practice on research outcomes, specifically how filtering of software projects on GitHub based on inherent characteristics affects the assessment of their popularity. Using a dataset of over 100,000 repositories, we used multiple regression to model the number of stars -a commonly used proxy for popularity- based on factors such as the number of commits, the duration of the project, the number of authors and the number of core developers. Our control model included the entire dataset, while a second filtered model considered only projects with ten or more authors. The results indicated that while certain characteristics of the repository consistently predict popularity, the filtering process significantly alters the relationships between these characteristics and the response. We found that the number of commits exhibited a positive correlation with popularity in the control sample but showed a negative correlation in the filtered sample. These findings highlight the potential biases introduced by data filtering and emphasize the need for careful sample selection in empirical research of mining software repositories. We recommend that empirical work should either analyze complete datasets such as World of Code, or employ stratified random sampling from a complete dataset to ensure that filtering is not biasing the results.

Malviya Thakur, Addi↗