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At least 253 records · Page 14

Warming of the lower Columbia River , 1853 to 2018

Abstract Water temperature is a critical ecological indicator; however, few studies have statistically modeled century‐scale trends in riverine or estuarine water temperature, or their cause. Here, we recover, digitize, and analyze archival temperature measurements from the 1850s onward to investigate how and why water temperatures in the lower Columbia River are changing. To infill data gaps and explore changes, we develop regression models of daily historical Columbia River water temperature using time‐lagged river flow and air temperature as the independent variables. Models were developed for three time periods (mid‐19th, mid‐20th, and early 21st century), using archival and modern measurements (1854–1876; 1938–present). Daily and monthly averaged root‐mean‐square errors overall are 0.89°C and 0.77°C, respectively for the 1938–2018 period. Results suggest that annual averaged water temperature increased by 2.2°C ± 0.2°C since the 1850s, a rate of 1.3°C ± 0.1°C/century. Increased water temperatures are seasonally dependent. An increase of approximately 2.0°C ± 0.2°C/century occurs in the July–Dec time‐frame, while springtime trends are statistically insignificant. Rising temperatures change the probability of exceeding ecologically important thresholds; since the 1850s, the number of days with water temperatures over 20°C increased from ~5 to 60 per year, while the number below 2°C decreased from ~10 to 0 days/per year. Overall, the modern system is warmer, but exhibits less temperature variability. The reservoir system reduces sensitivity to short‐term atmospheric forcing. Statistical experiments within our modeling framework suggest that increased water temperature is driven by warming air temperatures (~29%), altered river flow (~14%), and water resources management (~57%).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DC Electric Fields and Associated Plasma Drifts Observed with the C/NOFS Satellite

Initial DC electric field observations and associated plasma drifts are presented from the Vector Electric Field Investigation (VEFI) on the Air Force Communication/Navigation Outage Forecasting System (C/NOFS) satellite. We present statistical averages of the vector fields for the first year of operations that include both the zonal and radial components of the resulting E x B plasma flows at low latitudes. Magnetic field data from the VEFI science magnetometer are used to compute the plasma flows. The DC electric field detector reveals zonal and radial electric fields that undergo strong diurnal variations, typically displaying eastward and outward-directed fields during the day and westward and downward-directed fields at night. There is considerable variation in the large scale DC electric field data, in both the daytime and nighttime cases, with enhanced structures typically observed at night. In general, the measured zonal DC electric field amplitudes include excursions that extend within the 0.4 - 2 m V/m range, corresponding to E x B drifts of the order of 30-150 m/s. The average vertical or radial electric fields may exceed the zonal fields in amplitude by a factor of 1.5 to 2. Although the data compare well, in a general sense, with previous satellite observations and statistical patterns of vertical ion drifts, the E x B drifts we report from C/NOFS rarely show a pronounced pre-reversal enhancement after sunset. We attribute this to a combination of extreme solar minimum conditions and the fact that the C/NOFS orbit of 401 by 867 km carries the probes essentially above the lower altitude regions where the wind-driven dynamo might be expected to create enhanced upwards drifts in the early evening. Evidence for wavenumber 4 tidal effects and other longitudinal signatures have been detected and will be presented. We also discuss off-equatorial electric fields and their relation to the ambient plasma density.

Pfaff, R.↗

Antarctic ice sheet model comparison with uncurated geological constraints shows that higher spatial resolution improves deglacial reconstructions

Accurately reconstructing past changes to the shape and volume of the Antarctic ice sheet relies on the use of physically based and thus internally consistent ice sheet modeling, benchmarked against spatially limited geologic data. The challenge in model benchmarking against geologic data is diagnosing whether model-data misfits are the result of an inadequate model, inherently noisy or biased geologic data, and/or incorrect association between modeled quantities and geologic observations. In this work we address this challenge by (i) the development and use of a new model-data evaluation framework applied to an uncurated data set of geologic constraints, and (ii) nested high-spatial-resolution modeling designed to test the hypothesis that model resolution is an important limitation in matching geologic data. While previous approaches to model benchmarking employed highly curated datasets, our approach applies an automated screening and quality control algorithm to an uncurated public dataset of geochronological observations (specifically, cosmogenic-nuclide exposure-age measurements from glacial deposits in ice-free areas). This optimizes data utilization by including more geological constraints, reduces potential interpretive bias, and allows unsupervised assimilation of new data as they are collected. We also incorporate a nested model framework in which high-resolution domains are downscaled from a continent-wide ice sheet model. We highlight the application of this framework by applying these methods to a small ensemble of deglacial ice-sheet model simulations, and demonstrate that the nested approach improves the ability of model simulations to match exposure age data collected from areas of complex topography and ice flow. We develop a range of diagnostic model-data comparison metrics to provide more insight into model performance than possible from a single-valued misfit statistic, showing that different metrics capture different aspects of ice sheet deflation.

Geosciences↗

Evaluation of analysis techniques for low frequency interior noise and vibration of commercial aircraft

The application of selected analysis techniques to low frequency cabin noise associated with advanced propeller engine installations is evaluated. Three design analysis techniques were chosen for evaluation including finite element analysis, statistical energy analysis (SEA), and a power flow method using element of SEA (computer program Propeller Aircraft Interior Noise). An overview of the three procedures is provided. Data from tests of a 727 airplane (modified to accept a propeller engine) were used to compare with predictions. Comparisons of predicted and measured levels at the end of the first year's effort showed reasonable agreement leading to the conclusion that each technique had value for propeller engine noise predictions on large commercial transports. However, variations in agreement were large enough to remain cautious and to lead to recommendations for further work with each technique. Assessment of the second year's results leads to the conclusion that the selected techniques can accurately predict trends and can be useful to a designer, but that absolute level predictions remain unreliable due to complexity of the aircraft structure and low modal densities.

Landmann, A. E.↗

Direct numerical simulation of turbulent flow over a backward-facing step

The objectives of this study are as follows: (1) to conduct a direct numerical simulation of turbulent backward facing step flow using inflow and outflow conditions; and (2) to provide data in the form of Reynolds stress budgets for Reynolds averaged modeling. The report presents the basic statistical data and comparisons with the concurrent experiments of Jovic and Driver and budgets of turbulent kinetic energy.

Le, Hung↗

Global Geospace Science (GGS)/POLAR Thermal Ion Dynamics Experiments (TIDE) Co-Investigator Program: Mission Operations and Data Analysis (MO/DA)

We have pursued several investigations using the Polar/TIDE data set. The first was a comparison of TIDE high-altitude observations with similar ion flux signatures in the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) magnetospheric plasma analyzer (MPA) data. There are several geosynchronously orbiting satellites with LANL MPA instruments onboard. When the satellite is immersed in fresh plasma sheet electrons, the spacecraft voltage drops to several hundred volts negative, and cold ions are accelerated in to the detector. In the LANL MPA spectrograms, the accelerated cold ions appear as a bright, narrow line, following the voltage of the spacecraft. This "ion line" is seen regularly on the nightside, but has not received much attention. The Polar TIDE observations indicated a ubiquitous "lobal wind" in the near-- magnetotail, a field-aligned stream of approx. 100 eV ions flowing out of both polar ionospheres. The interesting result of this research is that the MPA ion line is also peaked in the field-aligned direction, even though the potential well should be uniform in all directions. It is believed that this is evidence that the lobal winds not only populate the high-latitude lobes, but fill the lobes all the way in to the near-Earth plasma sheet (the location of geosynchronous orbit). This activity developed into a full-scale survey of the lobal wind observations in the TIDE database. The universality of these observations with respect to local time and solar wind conditions implies that the ionospheric outflow is supplying the near-Earth plasma sheet at all times, regardless of magnetic activity. We have conducted a statistical study of the characteristics of the lobal wind in these two data sets FIDE and LANL MPA), finding much similarity between them. Using these characteristics as input conditions to our inner magnetosphere ion transport model, we have conducted simulations of the flow of these particles inside of geosynchronous orbit to show the impact these particles will have on the near-Earth space environment. As the study has progressed, these results have been presented several times to the TIDE team during teleconferences. It is planned to present this survey at the GEM 2004 Summer Workshop, and hopefully at additional conferences in the near future. We are presently writing a paper on the lobal wind occurrence statistics, which should be submitted in April or May to the Journal of Geophysical Research for publication. An undergraduate student at the University of Alabama in Huntsville, Will Maddox, working at NASA MSFC with Dr. Paul Craven, is presently creating a database of the values TIDE moments for the lobal wind (under Dr. Liemohn's guidance), and this will be the focus of a follow-on paper.

Nagy, Andrew↗

Fast strength model characterization using Bayesian statistics

A variety of flow stress models exist with new models constantly being developed. These models aim to approximate the strength of materials in a variety of regimes from quasistatic loading through shock scenarios. All models contain an array of parameters which need to be tuned to the material under study. Some models perform well under limited conditions, requiring adjustment of the parameters when venturing outside of those predefined ranges. Other models perform well over a wide range of conditions with a set of parameters, but may be outperformed by other models optimized on a tighter range of conditions. Recent research by Los Alamos demonstrated the ability to optimize the Johnson Cook (JC) model using a set of 3 plate-impact experiments on Aluminum. They utilized Bayesian statistics and emulation to determine optimal parameters for the model with a quantification of parameter uncertainty. We present an extension of this capability to incorporate velocimetry from plate-impact tests, stress-strain data from split Hopkinson pressure bar and quasistatic compression tests, plus profiles from Taylor cylinders in a unified fashion. Statistically robust comparisons of the performance and uncertainty of different realizations of the JC flow stress model were carried out based on calibration to several possible combinations of these three different experiment types.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Normalizing flows for domain adaptation when identifying Λ hyperon events

Here this study focuses on the application of a normalizing flow as a method of domain adaptation when classifying physics data. Normalizing flows offer a way to transform data points between two different distributions. The present study investigates a novel method of transforming latent representations of physics data to a normal distribution and then to a physics distribution again. The final distribution models a simulated distribution. After being transformed, the data can be classified by a neural network trained on labeled simulation data. The present study succeeds in training two normalizing flows that can transform between data (or simulation) and a Gaussian distribution.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Constructing Space-Time Views from Fixed Size Statistical Data: Getting the Best of Both Worlds

Many performance monitoring tools are currently available to the super-computing community. The performance data gathered and analyzed by these tools fall under two categories: statistics and event traces. Statistical data is much more compact but lacks the probative power event traces offer. Event traces, on the other hand, can easily fill up the entire file system during execution such that the instrumented execution may have to be terminated half way through. In this paper, we propose an innovative methodology for performance data gathering and representation that offers a middle ground. The user can trade-off tracing overhead, trace data size vs. data quality incrementally. In other words, the user will be able to limit the amount of trace collected and, at the same time, carry out some of the analysis event traces offer using spacetime views for the entire execution. Two basic ideas are employed: the use of averages to replace recording data for each instance and "formulae" to represent sequences associated with communication and control flow. With the help of a few simple examples, we illustrate the use of these techniques in performance tuning and compare the quality of the traces we collected vs. event traces. We found that the trace files thus obtained are, in deed, small, bounded and predictable before program execution and that the quality of the space time views generated from these statistical data are excellent. Furthermore, experimental results showed that the formulae proposed were able to capture 100% of all the sequences associated with 11 of the 15 applications tested. The performance of the formulae can be incrementally improved by allocating more memory at run-time to learn longer sequences.

Schmidt, Melisa↗

Constructing Space-Time Views from Fixed Size Statistical Data: Getting the Best of both Worlds

Many performance monitoring tools are currently available to the super-computing community. The performance data gathered and analyzed by these tools fall under two categories: statistics and event traces. Statistical data is much more compact but lacks the probative power event traces offer. Event traces, on the other hand, can easily fill up the entire file system during execution such that the instrumented execution may have to be terminated half way through. In this paper, we propose an innovative methodology for performance data gathering and representation that offers a middle ground. The user can trade-off tracing overhead, trace data size vs. data quality incrementally. In other words, the user will be able to limit the amount of trace collected and, at the same time, carry out some of the analysis event traces offer using space-time views for the entire execution. Two basic ideas arc employed: the use of averages to replace recording data for each instance and formulae to represent sequences associated with communication and control flow. With the help of a few simple examples, we illustrate the use of these techniques in performance tuning and compare the quality of the traces we collected vs. event traces. We found that the trace files thus obtained are, in deed, small, bounded and predictable before program execution and that the quality of the space time views generated from these statistical data are excellent. Furthermore, experimental results showed that the formulae proposed were able to capture 100% of all the sequences associated with 11 of the 15 applications tested. The performance of the formulae can be incrementally improved by allocating more memory at run-time to learn longer sequences.

Schmidt, Melisa↗

Roles of Engineering Correlations in Hypersonic Entry Boundary Layer Transition Prediction

Efforts to design and operate hypersonic entry vehicles are constrained by many considerations that involve all aspects of an entry vehicle system. One of the more significant physical phenomenon that affect entry trajectory and thermal protection system design is the occurrence of boundary layer transition from a laminar to turbulent state. During the Space Shuttle Return To Flight activity following the loss of Columbia and her crew of seven, NASA's entry aerothermodynamics community implemented an engineering correlation based framework for the prediction of boundary layer transition on the Orbiter. The methodology for this implementation relies upon the framework of correlation techniques that have been in use for several decades. What makes the Orbiter boundary layer transition correlation implementation unique is that a statistically significant data set was acquired in multiple ground test facilities, flight data exists to assist in establishing a better correlation and the framework was founded upon state of the art chemical nonequilibrium Navier Stokes flow field simulations. The basic tenets that guided the formulation and implementation of the Orbiter Return To Flight boundary layer transition prediction capability will be reviewed as a recommended format for future empirical correlation efforts. The validity of this approach has since been demonstrated by very favorable comparison of recent entry flight testing performed with the Orbiter Discovery, which will be graphically summarized. These flight data can provide a means to validate discrete protuberance engineering correlation approaches as well as high fidelity prediction methods to higher confidence. The results of these Orbiter engineering and flight test activities only serve to reinforce the essential role that engineering correlations currently exercise in the design and operation of entry vehicles. The framework of information-related to the Orbiter empirical boundary layer transition prediction capability will be utilized to establish a fresh perspective on this role, to illustrate how quantitative statistical evaluations of empirical correlations can and should be used to assess accuracy and to discuss what the authors' perceive as a recent heightened interest in the application of high fidelity numerical modeling of boundary layer transition. Concrete results will also be developed related to empirical boundary layer transition onset correlations. This will include assessment of the discrete protuberance boundary layer transition onset data assembled for the Orbiter configuration during post-Columbia Return To Flight. Assessment of these data will conclude that momentum thickness Reynolds number based correlations have superior coefficients and uncertainty in comparison to roughness height based Reynolds numbers, aka Re(sub k) or Re(sub kk). In addition, linear regression results from roughness height Reynolds number based correlations will be evaluated, leading to a hypothesis that non-continuum effects play a role in the processes associated with incipient boundary layer transition on discrete protuberances.

Campbell, Charles H.↗

Frequency–wavenumber spectral analysis of spatio-temporal flows

We propose a fully spatio-temporal approach for identifying spatially varying modes of oscillation in fluid dynamics simulation output by means of multitaper frequency–wavenumber spectral analysis. One-dimensional spectrum estimation has proven to be a valuable tool in the analysis of turbulence data applied spatially to determine the rate of energy transport between spatial scales, or temporally to determine frequencies of oscillatory flows. It also allows for the quantitative comparison of flow characteristics between two scenarios using a standard basis. It has the limitation, however, that it neglects coupling between spatial and temporal structures. Two-dimensional frequency–wavenumber spectral analysis allows one to decompose waveforms into standing or travelling variety. The extended higher-dimensional multitaper method proposed here is shown to have improved statistical properties over conventional non-parametric spectral estimators, and is accompanied by confidence intervals which estimate their uncertainty. Multitaper frequency–wavenumber analysis is applied to a canonical benchmark problem, namely, a direct numerical simulation of von Kármán vortex shedding off a square wall-mounted cylinder with two inflow scenarios with matching momentum-thickness Reynolds numbers $Re_{\unicode[STIX]{x1D703}}\approx 1000$ at the obstacle. Frequency–wavenumber analysis of a two-dimensional section of these data reveals that although both the laminar and turbulent inflow scenarios show a turbulent $-5/3$ cascade in wavenumber ( $\unicode[STIX]{x1D708}$ ) and frequency ( $f$ ), the flow characteristics differ in that there is a significantly more prominent discrete harmonic oscillation near $(f,\unicode[STIX]{x1D708})=(0.2,0.21)$ in wavenumber and frequency in the laminar inflow scenario than the turbulent scenario. This frequency–wavenumber pair corresponds to a travelling wave with velocity near one near the centre path of the vortex street.

Geoga, Christopher J. (ORCID:0000000250604799)↗

Uncertainty-Based Approach for Dynamic Aerodynamic Data Acquisition and Analysis

Development of improved modeling methods to provide increased fidelity of flight predictions for aircraft motions during flight in flow regimes with large nonlinearities requires improvements in test techniques for measuring and characterizing wind tunnel data. This paper presents a method for providing a measure of data integrity for static and forced oscillation test techniques. Data integrity is particularly important when attempting to accurately model and predict flight of today s high performance aircraft which are operating in expanded flight envelopes, often maneuvering at high angular rates at high angles-of-attack, even above maximum lift. Current aerodynamic models are inadequate in predicting flight characteristics in the expanded envelope, such as rapid aircraft departures and other unusual motions. Present wind tunnel test methods do not factor changes of flow physics into data acquisition schemes, so in many cases data are obtained over more iterations than required, or insufficient data may be obtained to determine a valid estimate with statistical significance. Additionally, forced oscillation test techniques, one of the primary tools used to develop dynamic models, do not currently provide estimates of the uncertainty of the results during an oscillation cycle. A method to optimize the required number of forced oscillation cycles based on decay of uncertainty gradients and balance tolerances is also presented.

Heim, Eugene H. D.↗

New Observations of the Heliospheric Magnetic Field from the Voyager Spacecraft

We review recent observations of variations of the heliospheric magnetic field B(t) made by Voyager 1 and 2 (V1 and V2), and we discuss the boundary conditions needed for models to explain the observations. Usually, observations from a spacecraft close to the Sun, such as ACE, WIND or Ulysses are used as input to a time-dependent model. Generally, the predicted profile B(t) can be compared directly with the observed profile only when either V1 or V2 is approximately radially aligned with a near-Sun spacecraft; this happens rarely and only for a brief time interval. The Bastille Day events illustrate this situation. In the absence of radial alignment of the spacecraft it is possible to predict the development of a global structure (a GMIR) with data from ACE or WIND, if they obtain a representative sample the flows that merge to form a GMIR. When latitudinal gradients are small and when there is statistical homogeneity in the azimuthal direction, it is possible to predict the statistical properties of the large-scale fluctuations of B(t) observed by V1 or V2 during a year or so. We illustrate this situation with observations from the recent solar maximum and the declining phase of the solar cycle. Predictions of detailed observations made by V1 and V2 under general conditions (e.g., when there is a large latitudinal gradient) require boundary conditions as a function of time on a surface, such as a Sun-centered sphere with a radius of 1 AU. These conditions can only be provided by global solar observations. We suggest the feasibility of such an approach, using V2 observations for 2005 and 2006. The prediction of observations in the heliosheath requires the solution of the 3-D boundary problem for the supersonic solar wind and propagation of solar wind through the termination shock into the heliosphere. The properties of B(t) observed in the heliosheath have not yet been predicted.

Burlaga, Leonard F.↗

Test of statistical models for gases with and without internal energy states.

The problem of nonlinear rarefied Couette flow with heat transfer has been studied for both monatomic and diatomic gases using the Boltzmann equation with the Bhatnagar-Gross-Krook type models as the governing equation and the method of discrete ordinates as a tool. The calculated results have been compared with the existing experimental data in order to test the accuracy and the applicability of the statistical models for this one-dimensional problem. The calculated density results are found to be in good agreement with available experimental data; the calculated heat flux solution for the linear case is found to always be lower than the experimental data of Teagan and Springer. The comparisons made here indicate that the statistical models are indeed reasonably accurate so that their use is justified in the type of problems investigated.

Huang, A. B.↗

Characterization of Days Based On Analysis of National Airspace System Performance Metrics

Days of operations in the National Airspace System can be described in term of traffic demand, runway conditions, equipment outages, and surface and enroute weather conditions. These causes manifest themselves in terms of departure delays, arrival delays, enroute delays and traffic flow management delays, Traffic flow management initiatives such as, ground stops, ground delay programs, miles-in-trail restrictions, rerouting and airborne holding are imposed to balance the air traffic demand with respect to the available capacity, In order to maintain operational efficiency of the National Airspace System, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) maintains delay sad other statistics in the Air Traffic Operations Network (OPSNET) and the Aviation System Performance Metrics (ASPM) databases. OPSNET data includes reportable delays of fifteen minutes ox more experienced by Instrument Flight Rule (IFR) flights. Numbers of aircraft affected by departure delays, enroute delays, arrival delays and traffic flow delays are recorded in the OPSNET data. ASPM data consist of number of actual departures, number of canceled departures, percentage of on time departures, percentage of on time gate arrivals, taxi-out delays. taxi-in delays, gate delays, arrival delays and block delays. Surface conditions at the major U.S. airports are classified in terms of Instrument Meteorological Condition (IMC) and Visual Meteorological Condition (VMC) as a function of the time of the day in the ASPM data. The main objective of this paper is to use OPSNET and ASPM data to classify the days in the datasets into few distinct groups, where each group is separated from the other groups in terms of a distance metric. The motivations for classifying the days are two-fold, 1) to enable selection of days of traffic with particular operational characteristics for concept evaluation using system-wide simulation systems such as the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Airspace Concepts Evaluation Tool (ACES) and 2) to enable evaluation of a given day with respect to the characteristics of the classified groups. The first part of the paper is devoted to the analysis of major trends seen in the OPSNET and ASPM data. The second part of the paper is devoted to describing features or measures derived from the OPSNET and ASPM data that are suitable for characterizing days, and the classification algorithm used for grouping the days. Finally, the method for evaluating the characteristics of a given day with respect to the properties of the groups is described.

Chatterji, Gano B.↗

Assessing Carbon Properties in Coastal Waters with a New Observing System Testbed

Large rainfall events over land can lead to a substantial flux of carbon and nutrients to estuaries and the coastal ocean. In the mid-Atlantic on the east coast of North America (35° - 42° N), these events often happen due to tropical storm activity as well as less predictable anomalously large midlatitude storms or abrupt spring snow melt runoff. Storms can directly impact the coastal carbon cycle via export of carbon from land to sea, while also stimulating phytoplankton production due to the influx of nutrients to the coastal ocean. To assess the impact of high precipitation and river flow events on the coastal carbon cycle, we have integrated multiple observing platforms in an analytical framework to dynamically observe carbon-related properties. The new observing system testbed (NOS-T) allows for an estimate of phytoplankton and organic carbon stocks in the surface ocean, with a goal of providing near real time analytical capability. A case study of high river discharge in the mid-Atlantic in the summer and fall of 2018 and 2021 were used to examine how riverine carbon manifests along the land-estuary-ocean continuum particularly in Chesapeake Bay. Chesapeake Bay was chosen as the study site because of long term monitoring by the Chesapeake Bay Program and a robust and well-developed regional biogeochemical modeling system, the Chesapeake Bay Environmental Forecast System (CBEFS), that is publicly available. There is also new capability in Chesapeake Bay to combine hyperspectral radiometric data from the Aerosol Robotic Network site that is online in 2022 with in-water observations of optical properties. Precipitation data from the Global Precipitation Measurement IMERG data set was used to establish triggering criteria for storm carbon flux observation. USGS and in-water carbon data were used to establish statistical models to estimate the mass flux of organic carbon into Chesapeake Bay using measured river discharge. The year 2018 was examined as there was record rainfall and near record river flow in the late summer. The CBEFS modeling was compared with in-water estimates of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) to assess the model’s ability to capture storm fluxes of carbon to the ecosystem. Multiple satellite platforms were also used to assess how remote sensing using passive Earth orbiting sensors can be used to observe carbon in this complex coastal region. A set of recommendations have been established to improve sensing capability to measure aquatic carbon during storm events. A unique challenge in these dynamic inland waters is how rapidly carbon fluxes can evolve in space and time, with many sources contributing to the water leaving reflectance that satellites can observe. To improve our ability to quantify carbon stocks and fluxes in near real time, a suite of satellite sensors and high-resolution modeling capability is needed, all supplemented by in situ monitoring. Future inclusion of in-water observations that would be deployed when the system reaches triggering criteria, as well as taskable orbital instruments, will improve estimates of ocean carbon properties and provide the ability to calculate major carbon stocks and fluxes in near real time following episodic storm events.

land-ocean continuum↗

The Use of a Satellite Climatological Data Set to Infer Large Scale Three Dimensional Flow Characteristics

Ever since the first satellite image loops from the 6.3 micron water vapor channel on the METEOSAT-1 in 1978, there have been numerous efforts (many to a great degree of success) to relate the water vapor radiance patterns to familiar atmospheric dynamic quantities. The realization of these efforts is becoming evident with the merging of satellite derived winds into predictive models (Velden et al., 1997; Swadley and Goerss, 1989). Another parameter that has been quantified from satellite water vapor channel measurements is upper tropospheric relative humidity (UTH) (e.g., Soden and Bretherton, 1996; Schmetz and Turpeinen, 1988). These humidity measurements, in turn, can be used to quantify upper tropospheric water vapor and its transport to more accurately diagnose climate changes (Lerner et al., 1998; Schmetz et al. 1995a) and quantify radiative processes in the upper troposphere. Also apparent in water vapor imagery animations are regions of subsiding and ascending air flow. Indeed, a component of the translated motions we observe are due to vertical velocities. The few attempts at exploiting this information have been met with a fair degree of success. Picon and Desbois (1990) statistically related Meteosat monthly mean water vapor radiances to six standard pressure levels of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) model vertical velocities and found correlation coefficients of about 0.50 or less. This paper presents some preliminary results of viewing climatological satellite water vapor data in a different fashion. Specifically, we attempt to infer the three dimensional flow characteristics of the mid- to upper troposphere as portrayed by GOES VAS during the warm ENSO event (1987) and a subsequent cold period in 1998.

Lerner, Jeffrey A.↗