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At least 253 records · Page 14

Accelerated screening of functional atomic impurities in halide perovskites using high-throughput computations and machine learning

The pressing need for novel materials that can serve rising demands in solar cell and optoelectronic technologies makes the nexus of halide perovskites, high-throughput computations, and machine learning, very promising. Ever increasing amounts of data on the structure, fundamental properties, and device performance of halide perovskites provide opportunities for learning chemical rules and design principles that make these materials attractive, and applying them across wide chemical spaces. In this work, we show that impurity properties of halide perovskites computed using density functional theory (DFT) can be combined with machine learning (ML) to deliver predictive models and quick identification of optoelectronically active impurity atoms. Our computation lead to the largest reported dataset of the formation energies and charge transition levels of Pb-site impurities in methylammonium lead halide (MAPbX 3 ) perovskites. Descriptors are defined to uniquely represent any impurity atom in any MAPbX 3 compound and mapped to the computed impurity properties using regression techniques such as Gaussian process regression, neural networks, and random forests. We use the best optimized predictive models to make predictions for hundreds of impurities across 9 MAPbX 3 compounds and create lists of dominating impurities, that is, impurities that can shift the equilibrium Fermi level in the perovskite as determined by native point defects. Finally, this accelerated screening powered by computations and machine learning can guide the identification of problematic impurities that may cause undesired recombination of charge carriers, as well as impurities that can be deliberately introduced to tune the perovskite conductivity and resulting photovoltaic absorption.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

What Shapes Transportation Charging Infrastructure Availability? Evidence from Tennessee

This study examines how community, travel, and freight characteristics relate to public charging infrastructure availability across Tennessee ZIP codes. We link Alternative Fuels Data Center station locations with traffic, socioeconomic, demographic, commuting, and freight employment data to build a ZIP code-level dataset. Ordinary least squares regression captures variation in chargers per 10,000 residents (R2=0.311). Quantile regressions at the 25th, 50th, and 75th percentiles, with pseudo R2 values up to 0.099, show that the determinants of infrastructure availability differ across low-, medium-, and high-availability areas. Percent female, percent car commuters, average household size, and median age are negatively associated with charging availability across much of the distribution. Truck traffic is positively associated only in lower-availability ZIP codes, while vehicle miles traveled shifts from a negative association at the lower end of the distribution to a positive association at the upper end. The results provide insight into how public charging deployment aligns with community characteristics, mobility demand, and freight activity across Tennessee. Future work can distinguish charger types and power levels, incorporate land-use and temporal rollout patterns, and examine how charging infrastructure needs differ across urban and rural contexts.

Calderón, Oriana [University of Tennessee, Knoxvil↗

Human‐induced salinity changes impact marine organisms and ecosystems

Abstract Climate change is fundamentally altering marine and coastal ecosystems on a global scale. While the effects of ocean warming and acidification on ecology and ecosystem functions and services are being comprehensively researched, less attention is directed toward understanding the impacts of human‐driven ocean salinity changes. The global water cycle operates through water fluxes expressed as precipitation, evaporation, and freshwater runoff from land. Changes to these in turn modulate ocean salinity and shape the marine and coastal environment by affecting ocean currents, stratification, oxygen saturation, and sea level rise. Besides the direct impact on ocean physical processes, salinity changes impact ocean biological functions with the ecophysiological consequences are being poorly understood. This is surprising as salinity changes may impact diversity, ecosystem and habitat structure loss, and community shifts including trophic cascades. Climate model future projections (of end of the century salinity changes) indicate magnitudes that lead to modification of open ocean plankton community structure and habitat suitability of coral reef communities. Such salinity changes are also capable of affecting the diversity and metabolic capacity of coastal microorganisms and impairing the photosynthetic capacity of (coastal and open ocean) phytoplankton, macroalgae, and seagrass, with downstream ramifications on global biogeochemical cycling. The scarcity of comprehensive salinity data in dynamic coastal regions warrants additional attention. Such datasets are crucial to quantify salinity‐based ecosystem function relationships and project such changes that ultimately link into carbon sequestration and freshwater as well as food availability to human populations around the globe. It is critical to integrate vigorous high‐quality salinity data with interacting key environmental parameters (e.g., temperature, nutrients, oxygen) for a comprehensive understanding of anthropogenically induced marine changes and its impact on human health and the global economy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mississippi Embayment Water Resources: Utilizing NASA Earth Observations to Understand Groundwater Recharge in the Mississippi Regional Aquifer System

The Memphis Sand Aquifer (MSA) is located in the Mississippi Embayment which extends 250,000 square kilometers across nine states. Groundwater recharge factors that influence the narrow recharge zone of the MSA include precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and landcover changes. The unsustainable water practices and increasing landcover change from urban development in the MSA's narrow recharge zone threaten the aquifer’s groundwater storage. In partnership with Protect Our Aquifer, the team used data from Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Integrated Multi-Satellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM IMERG), National Land Cover Dataset (NLCD), and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE). These datasets included annually-averaged precipitation, evapotranspiration, potential evapotranspiration, biannual landcover change, and monthly total water storage which were used to create groundwater recharge factors maps and timeseries. The evaporative stress index map, water balance map, and landcover change maps were used to identify thriving areas. The team found precipitation did not express a strong linear trend and showed high precipitation years in 2017 and 2018, and a drought year in 2011. The potential evapotranspiration showed a weak negative linear trend. The landcover change showed shifts in forested areas and urban development. The team identified four thriving areas in the western side of Tennessee that successfully contribute to aquifer recharge due to increased forest area, sufficient water use, low changes in total water storage, and lateral positioning to streams. These end products allowed our partners to make informed decisions about areas that are thriving in the Mississippi Embayment recharge zone for conservation efforts of the aquifer.

Lauren Mahoney↗

Dark Energy Survey: A 2.1% measurement of the angular baryonic acoustic oscillation scale at redshift z eff = 0.85 from the final dataset

Here, we present the angular diameter distance measurement obtained with the baryonic acoustic oscillation (BAO) feature from galaxy clustering in the completed Dark Energy Survey, consisting of six years (Y6) of observations. We use the Y6 BAO galaxy sample, optimized for BAO science in the redshift range 0.6 < z <1.2, with an effective redshift at z eff = 0.85 and split into six tomographic bins. The sample has nearly 16 million galaxies over 4,273 square degrees. Our consensus measurement constrains the ratio of the angular distance to sound horizon scale to D M ⁡(z eff )/r d = 19.51 ± 0.41 (at 68.3% confidence interval), resulting from comparing the BAO position in our data to that predicted by planck Λ⁢CDM via the BAO shift parameter α =(D M /r d )/(D M /r d ) PLANCK . To achieve this, the BAO shift is measured with three different methods, angular correlation function (ACF), angular power spectrum (APS), and projected correlation function (PCF), obtaining α = 0.952 ± 0.023, 0.962 ± 0.022, and 0.955 ± 0.020, respectively, which we combine to α = 0.957 ± 0.020, including systematic errors. When compared with the Λ⁢CDM model that best fits planck data, this measurement is found to be 4.3% and 2.1⁢σ below the angular BAO scale predicted. To date, it represents the most precise angular BAO measurement at z > 0.75 from any survey and the most precise measurement at any redshift from photometric surveys. The analysis was performed blinded to the BAO position, and it is shown to be robust against analysis choices, data removal, redshift calibrations, and observational systematics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Revealing systematic changes in the transcriptome during the transition from exponential growth to stationary phase

ABSTRACT The composition of bacterial transcriptomes is determined by the transcriptional regulatory network (TRN). The TRN regulates the transition from one physiological state to another. Here, we use independent component analysis to monitor the composition of the transcriptome during the transition from the exponential growth phase to the stationary phase. With Escherichia coli K-12 MG1655 as a model strain, we trigger the transition using carbon, nitrogen, and sulfur starvation. We find that (i) the transition to the stationary phase accompanies common transcriptome changes, including increased stringent responses and reduced production of cellular building blocks and energy regardless of the limiting element; (ii) condition-specific changes are strongly associated with transcriptional regulators ( e.g. , Crp, NtrC, CysB, Cbl) responsible for metabolizing the limiting element; and (iii) the shortage of each limiting element differentially affects the production of amino acids and extracellular polymers. This study demonstrates how the combination of genome-scale datasets and new data analytics reveals the fundamental characteristics of a key transition in the life cycle of bacteria. IMPORTANCE Nutrient limitations are critical environmental perturbations in bacterial physiology. Despite its importance, a detailed understanding of how bacterial transcriptomes are adjusted has been limited. By utilizing independent component analysis (ICA) to decompose transcriptome data, this study reveals key regulatory events that enable bacteria to adapt to nutrient limitations. The findings not only highlight common responses, such as the stringent response, but also condition-specific regulatory shifts associated with carbon, nitrogen, and sulfur starvation. The insights gained from this work advance our knowledge of bacterial physiology, gene regulation, and metabolic adaptation.

Lim, Hyun Gyu (ORCID:0000000204692388)↗

CROCUS Sodar Measurements of Lower Atmospheric Wind Profiles at Argonne Testbed for Multiscale Observational Science (ATMOS) Site

The Scintec MFAS Sodar (Multiple-Frequency Acoustic Sounder) is an autonomous, ground-based acoustic remote sensing system designed to measure vertical profiles of horizontal wind speed, wind direction, and vertical velocity in the lower atmosphere. The instrument transmits sequences of acoustic pulses and detects the Doppler-shifted sound waves backscattered by small-scale temperature and velocity fluctuations caused by atmospheric turbulence. From these Doppler shifts, the system derives three-dimensional wind vectors by combining radial velocities from multiple beam orientations.The MFAS Sodar operates with a first usable range gate beginning at approximately 30 m above ground level and a configurable vertical resolution of 10 m. Under favorable acoustic conditions, the system provides wind profiles extending up to 600 m above ground level. Measurements are processed into 15-minute averaged profiles containing wind speed, direction, vertical velocity, and diagnostic quantities such as signal-to-noise ratio and echo strength.This dataset was collected at the Argonne Testbed for Multiscale Observational Science (ATMOS) facility in Lemont, Illinois, as part of DOE's CROCUS Urban Integrated Field Laboratory (UIFL) initiative. The purpose of these observations is to characterize the vertical wind structure and boundary-layer evolution across the urban–suburban gradient of the greater Chicago region. In particular, these data are intended to improve understanding of how local meteorology, such as lake-breeze penetration, nocturnal jets, and daytime mixing, varies between the densely built urban core and the suburban periphery. The MFAS observations provide critical context for evaluating high-resolution model simulations and for integrating with complementary lidar, radar, and in-situ meteorological measurements within the broader CROCUS UIFL network.All data are archived in NetCDF (Network Common Data Form) format and include wind and diagnostic parameters. The files can be accessed and analyzed using standard software that supports NetCDF, such as Python (e.g., xarray, netCDF4), MATLAB, R (e.g., ncdf4, raster), or Panoply (NASA’s NetCDF visualization application).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Challenge Problem 1: Preliminary Results of the Direct Numerical Simulation of Transient Flows

This report presents the first direct numerical simulations (DNS) of transient mixed convection in an idealized downcomer-like channel (Challenge Problem 1, Phase II). Using the GPU-accelerated NekRS solver, we modeled a sudden decay in driving pressure, mimicking loss-of-flow events, and tracked the resulting evolution of Reynolds number, boundary-layer structure, turbulence statistics, and heat-transfer metrics. Key findings include the systematic thickening and eventual asymmetry of velocity and thermal boundary layers under buoyant deceleration; minimal “memory” lag in Reynolds shear stress and TKE profiles when sampled at matching Re, yet clear shifts of peak locations toward the cooled wall; overshoots in transient eddy-viscosity and eddy-diffusivity (and corresponding sub-unity turbulent Prandtl numbers) on the cooled side; and a pronounced transient Nusselt-number enhancement driven by wall-temperature inertia and residual eddy mixing. These effects combined to offer a temporary cooling margin above steady-state predictions during reactor LOF transients. Future work will extend this work to a more complex “Case II” geometry (90° turn + lower plenum) and generate multi-Re/Pr datasets for data-driven turbulence closures.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Reviews and syntheses: Opportunities for robust use of peak intensities from high-resolution mass spectrometry in organic matter studies

Abstract. Earth's biogeochemical cycles are intimately tied to the biotic and abiotic processing of organic matter (OM). Spatial and temporal variations in OM chemistry are often studied using direct infusion, high-resolution Fourier transform mass spectrometry (FTMS). An increasingly common approach is to use ecological metrics (e.g., within-sample diversity) to summarize high-dimensional FTMS data, notably Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FT-ICR MS). However, problems can arise when FTMS peak-intensity data are used in a way that is analogous to abundances in ecological analyses (e.g., species abundance distributions). Using peak-intensity data in this way requires the assumption that intensities act as direct proxies for concentrations. Here, we show that comparisons of the same peak across samples (within-peak) may carry information regarding variations in relative concentration, but comparing different peaks (between-peak) within or between samples does not. We further developed a simulation model to study the quantitative implications of using peak intensities to compute ecological metrics (e.g., intensity-weighted mean properties and diversity) that rely on information about both within-peak and between-peak shifts in relative abundance. We found that, despite analytical limitations in linking concentration to intensity, ecological metrics often perform well in terms of providing robust qualitative inferences and sometimes quantitatively accurate estimates of diversity and mean molecular characteristics. We conclude with recommendations for the robust use of peak intensities for natural organic matter studies. A primary recommendation is the use and extension of the simulation model to provide objective guidance on the degree to which conceptual and quantitative inferences can be made for a given analysis of a given dataset. Broad use of this approach can help ensure rigorous scientific outcomes from the use of FTMS peak intensities in environmental applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Exploring Building Retrofit Strategies Using AutoBEM Under Future Weather Scenarios

This study evaluates the long-term effectiveness of energy conservation measures (ECMs) on building energy consumption using AutoBEM, a scalable modeling framework driven by the high-resolution Model America dataset. We simulated 18,951 buildings in Flagstaff, Arizona under four climate scenarios using Future Typical Meteorological Year (fTMY) weather files for six time periods spanning from 1980 to 2099. Six ECMs were analyzed across electricity and gas usage, including HVAC fuel-switching, insulation upgrades, and infiltration control. While some measures, such as reducing space infiltration by percentage, showed minimal or even negative impact on total energy savings at the aggregate level, they proved highly effective for specific building types. Conversely, HVAC electrification offers high gas reduction but shifts demand to electricity, highlighting critical trade-offs under different climate trajectories. Building-type-specific analysis under SSP5-RCP8.5 (2080–2099) revealed significant variation in ECM performance, underscoring the need for targeted retrofit strategies. This study demonstrates the power of combining fTMY projections with large-scale simulations to inform data-driven retrofit planning.

Chowdhury, Shovan [ORNL]↗

Examining the Link Between Food Prices and Food Insecurity: a Multi-Level Analysis of Maize Price and Birthweight in Kenya

In developing countries where many poor people rely on rainfed, locally produced food for the majority of their caloric intake, shifts in climate and weather patterns can dramatically reduce agricultural productivity. The reduction in agricultural productivity reduces overall food availability and ultimately impacts food accessibility, putting millions of people at risk for malnutrition. In this project we focus on Kenya where roughly a third of households are food insecure. We examine the relationship of the price of maize and low birth weight to help quantify the impact of local food prices on one outcome of household food insecurity. Using spatially referenced data from recent Kenyan Demographic and Health Survey datasets, price data, livelihood information, and a remotely sensed-based measure of local growing season productivity, we develop a dataset linking pregnancies occurring from 2001 to 2008 to the spatially and temporally relevant maize price data. We construct several regression models to examine the impact of local maize prices and remotely sensed based estimates of crop production on infant birth weight - specifically low birth weight. The results of the models highlight the importance of including community crop production to evaluate maize price impacts on low birth weight outcomes. Also, because of the positive correlation between pre-pregnancy maize prices and birth weight, the results suggest that some households may benefit from high prices or that high prices may impact the number of conceptions. More generally, our work demonstrates that multilevel models that account for community-level variation are important for disentangling these complex relationships and can contribute to the discussion of how to design more effective food policies.

Low birth weight↗

Biological Research and Space Health Enabled by Machine Learning to Support Deep Space Missions

A key science goal of the NASA “Moon to Mars” campaign is to understand how biology responds to the Lunar, Martian, and deep space environments in order to advance fundamental knowledge, reduce risk, and support safe, productive human space missions. Through the powerful emerging approaches of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML), a paradigm shift has begun in biomedical science and engineered astronaut health systems, to enable Earth independence and autonomy of mission operations. Here we present an overview of AI/ML architecture to support deep space mission goals, developed with leaders in the field. First, we focus on the fundamental biological research that supports our understanding of physiological responses to spaceflight, and we describe current efforts to support AI/ML research including data standardization and data engineering through maximally open and FAIR (findable, accessible, interoperable, reusable) databases and the generation of AI-ready datasets for reuse and analysis. We also discuss remote data management frameworks for research data as well as environmental and health data that are generated during deep space missions. We highlight several research projects that leverage data standardization and management for fundamental biological discovery to uncover the complex effects of space travel on living systems. Next, we provide an overview of cutting-edge AI/ML approaches that can be integrated to support remote monitoring and analysis during deep space missions, including generative models and large language models to learn the underlying biomedical patterns and predict outcomes or answer questions during off world medical scenarios. We also describe current AI/ML methods to support this research and monitoring through automated cloud-based labs which enable limited human intervention and closed-loop experimentation in remote settings. These labs could support mission autonomy by analyzing environmental data streams, and would be facilitated through in situ analytics capabilities to avoid sending large raw data files through low bandwidth communications. Finally, in the context of deep space missions with limited communications or access to medical advice from Earth, we describe a solution for integrated, real-time mission biomonitoring across hierarchical levels from continuous environmental monitoring, to wearables and point-of-care devices, to molecular and physiological monitoring. We introduce a precision space health system that will ensure that the future of space health is predictive, preventative, participatory and personalized.

artificial intelligence↗

A Data-Agnostic, Continuous Machine Learning Framework for Application in High Energy Physics and Beyond: Phase 1 Final Scientific/Technical Report

This Phase 1 effort has focused on the development of continual learning frameworks for use in machine learning, specifically in the applied context of High Energy Physics (HEP). Machine learning (ML) is a transformative technology by which computers, typically through the use of neural networks, are able to perform tasks with proficiency that rivals or surpasses that of human users. Model Degradation & Catastrophic Forgetting are two undesired phenomena which can occur in ML where the performance of a model degrades when either deployed on novel data streams, or trained on novel data which are sufficiently different than the data the models were initially trained on. A natural example where these sorts of effects can be observed is in the performance of detectors in harsh environments, where the detector signature may change over the lifetime of the detector as it ages and deteriorates — precisely what occurs in the experiments conducted in HEP. Real world HEP data is therefore an excellent test-ground and use-case for Continual Learning paradigms, which are techniques used in ML to counteract these problems. Ensemble learning is one such technique, where multiple smaller models are trained on subsets of the overall data and are ensembled together during inference. The intuition behind this technique is that, although there are shifts in the distributions which govern the incoming data streams, these shifts are not expected to be homogeneous or global. If a sufficient diversity in solutions within the various sub-models has been achieved, then at least one sub-model is expected to retain its performance within the overall ensemble. One further strength of this approach is that the architectures of the various models do not need to be identical, and in fact even different modalities of data can naturally be combined in this way. This work focused on applying ensemble learning techniques to derive results using two main datasets, anomaly detection in HEP data & time-series forecasting in semiconductor manufacturing data. Semiconductor manufacturing involves data with surprising similarity to that of HEP (e.g. wafer maps look very similar to digi-occupancy maps) and Cerium Lab’s prominence within the semiconductor industry makes semiconductor manufacturing a natural opportunity for commercialization of this work. Our efforts have led to two strong results. The first is that we evaluated the proposed ensembling techniques using previously proposed machine learning architectures for use in anomaly detection, namely AutoEncoder based models and their derivatives. We also developed new architectures which have not been evaluated in this context before. In fact, this work marks the first use of Vision Transformers for anomaly detection in HEP. Second, we demonstrated that ensemble learning significantly improves model performance in scenarios prone to degradation, validating its effectiveness across both HEP and semiconductor datasets. These results further support ensemble learning as a powerful strategy for mitigating catastrophic forgetting and maintaining robust performance in evolving data environments.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Lidar Measurements and High-Resolution Mesoscale Modeling of Coastally Trapped Disturbances off the Coast of California

Coastally Trapped disturbances (CTDs) are shifts in wind direction from the pre-dominant direction to equatorward to poleward for a period of time. These CTDs occur during the warm season off the California coast and impact coastal weather conditions and planned offshore wind plants. This study assesses the characteristics of CTD events as observed by lidar and other offshore buoys, then evaluates the ability of modeling systems to capture the correct characteristics, leveraging model output from the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) operational modeling system and the NOW-23 (National Offshore Wind) model dataset. CTDs were analyzed for October 2020 and May through to October of 2021, identifying 18 unique CTD events, confirmed by a nearby National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) buoy. The HRRR model captured most of these events, but the NOW-23 model output contained only 12 events. Composites of the wind, temperature, and pressure perturbations pre-, during, and post-event demonstrated the diminishment in wind speed, particularly for the alongshore component. Although the NOW-23 model captured the alongshore wind component and pressure perturbations well, the cross-shore wind component and temperature perturbations varied substantially. When the turbulent kinetic energy deviation and wind shear was positive across all levels pre-event, the NOW-23 modeling system was less likely to capture the CTD event. In contrast, the events that were captured by the model tended to have negative wind shear aloft pre-event.

coastal meteorology↗

Modeling the Effects of Artificial Drainage on Agriculture-dominated Watersheds using a Fully Distributed Integrated Hydrology Model: Datasets, scripts, model files

This model-data archive supports the research paper that demonstrates the integration of agricultural drainage features—specifically, narrow engineered ditches and tile drains—into a fully distributed, basin-scale integrated surface-subsurface hydrology model (ISSHM), Amanzi-ATS. The model employs innovative computational meshes aligned with agricultural ditches and incorporates the physically based Hooghoudt's drainage equation to simulate tile drainage, offering a novel strategy that enhances the accuracy of hydrological simulations.The archived dataset includes input parameters, model configurations, and select simulation outputs for the Amanzi-ATS model that successfully captured the streamflow patterns in the Portage River Watershed as validated by USGS gauge readings. Jupyter notebook for the preparation of model inputs and post-processing of outputs are also included. The model's predictive performance achieved a normalized Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) of 0.81, surpassing SWAT without the necessity for site-specific calibration.The Amanzi-ATS model presented in this modeL-data archive allows for numerical experiments to explore the shifts in the flow structure under different drainage scenarios. As a tool for advancing the understanding of distributed hydrological responses and nutrient cycling, this archived model provides valuable insights for researchers, modelers, and decision-makers involved in watershed management and environmental modeling.The Watershed Workflow package is implemented in Python3. The Jupyter notebooks can be executed through multiple open-source tools, for example, Anaconda Jupyter Lab, VS Studio Code, etc. Other data files include CSV and HDF5 files, which can be read through Python scripts. The input files for the ATS model, open-source integrated hydrology, and transport model, are in XML format and can be edited in any commonly used text editors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

From Latent Dynamics to Meaningful Representations

While representation learning has been central to the rise of machine learning and artificial intelligence, a key problem remains in making the learnt representations meaningful. For this the typical approach is to regularize the learned representation through prior probability distributions. However such priors are usually unavailable or are ad hoc. To deal with this, recent efforts have shifted towards leveraging the insights from physical principles to guide the learning process. In this spirit, we propose a purely dynamics-constrained representation learning framework. Instead of relying on predefined probabilities, we restrict the latent representation to follow overdamped Langevin dynamics with a learnable transition density — a prior driven by statistical mechanics. We show this is a more natural constraint for representation learning in stochastic dynamical systems, with the crucial ability to uniquely identify the ground truth representation. We validate our framework for different systems including a real-world fluorescent DNA movie dataset. Here, we show that our algorithm can uniquely identify orthogonal, isometric and meaningful latent representations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Flow-based likelihoods for non-Gaussian inference

We investigate the use of data-driven likelihoods to bypass a key assumption made in many scientific analyses, which is that the true likelihood of the data is Gaussian. In particular, we suggest using the optimization targets of flow-based generative models, a class of models that can capture complex distributions by transforming a simple base distribution through layers of nonlinearities. We call these flow-based likelihoods (FBL). We analyze the accuracy and precision of the reconstructed likelihoods on mock Gaussian data, and show that simply gauging the quality of samples drawn from the trained model is not a sufficient indicator that the true likelihood has been learned. We nevertheless demonstrate that the likelihood can be reconstructed to a precision equal to that of sampling error due to a finite sample size. We then apply FBLs to mock weak lensing convergence power spectra, a cosmological observable that is significantly non-Gaussian (NG). We find that the FBL captures the NG signatures in the data extremely well, while other commonly used data-driven likelihoods, such as Gaussian mixture models and independent component analysis, fail to do so. This suggests that works that have found small posterior shifts in NG data with data-driven likelihoods such as these could be underestimating the impact of non-Gaussianity in parameter constraints. By introducing a suite of tests that can capture different levels of NG in the data, we show that the success or failure of traditional data-driven likelihoods can be tied back to the structure of the NG in the data. Here, unlike other methods, the flexibility of the FBL makes it successful at tackling different types of NG simultaneously. Because of this, and consequently their likely applicability across datasets and domains, we encourage their use for inference when sufficient mock data are available for training.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Forest Cover Correlation with Population Trends of the Eastern Towhee in the Mid-Eastern U.S.

The Eastern Towhee (Pipilo erythrophthalmus) is a large, ground-nesting sparrow-like bird in the Eastern United States that has shown dramatic population declines over the last 50 years. This species lives year-round in the southeastern U.S., but individuals from the northeastern U.S. migrate south in the winter and overlap with southeastern residents. The Eastern Towhee is one of the fastest-declining bird species in the eastern U.S. In this study, we compare Eastern Towhee population trends during the breeding season with winter population trends over the last three decades. Paradoxically, this species is significantly increasing in Maryland, West Virginia, New Jersey, Virginia, and Delaware during the winter, but decreasing during the summer. Using the national Breeding Bird Survey dataset, we show that the Eastern Towhee populations have been declining roughly at a rate of -11.58% in Maryland, -9.51% in West Virginia, -37.95% in New Jersey, -11.22% in Virginia, and -16.96% in Delaware per year from 1984-2015. But the populations have been increasing during winter roughly at a rate of 0.62% in Maryland, 0.05% in West Virginia, 0.33% in New Jersey, 0.08% in Virginia, and 0.51% in Delaware per year from 1984-2019, using the Christmas Bird Count. We explore a variety of hypotheses to explain this paradox, including a northward range shift in association with climate change, as well as changes in habitat availability. Our study documents how the natural world is changing in complex ways due to many stressors and will help understand how to conserve the Eastern Towhee.

Meklit Mesfin↗