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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

2D microspatial distribution uniformity of photon detection efficiency and crosstalk probability of multi-pixel photon counters

Two-dimensional (2D) microspatial distribution uniformity of photon detection efficiency (PDE) and optical crosstalk probability P{sub ct} of multi-pixel photon counters (MPPCs) is studied. The experimental results show that the 2D spatial distribution of P{sub ct} is obviously uneven, i.e. P{sub ct} is larger at the corners and edges of a single pixel in MPPCs, which suggest a higher electrical field in the depletion region of the pixel at the corners and edges. The nonuniformity of the 2D spatial distribution of PDE also become evident when the size of the pixels of MPPCs is small, which signifies higher nonuniformity of the electric field distribution in MPPCs with small pixel size. A method is proposed for characterization of the 2D electrical field spatial distribution uniformity in a single pixel of MPPCs, which can be used for guiding the optimisation of the fabrication process of MPPCs and their properties. This promising method can naturally be extended to any Geiger avalanche photodiodes (G-APDs) and their arrays. (laser applications and other topics in quantum electronics)

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2026

Performance evaluation of neutron noise analysis in detecting special nuclear materials

Reliable and rapid inspection techniques play a vital role in preventing illicit trafficking of special nuclear materials. Active interrogation systems using neutrons produced by portable, high-flux deuterium-deuterium or deuterium-tritium neutron generators are being actively developed as a secondary scanning tool for this purpose. In this study, a neutron noise analysis-based approach for detecting unshielded and shielded special nuclear materials by using a pulsed deuterium-tritium neutron generator was evaluated. Here, this approach analyzes the fluctuation of neutron counts. Its performance was quantified with regard to time-to-detection to achieve a minimum probability of detection of 99% and a probability of false alarm of less than 1% considering various amounts of special nuclear materials and different shielding configurations. It was demonstrated that this approach could detect 17 uranium slugs in 5 s given a neutron generator yield of 8.1 × 10 7 n/s. These slugs could be detected within a reasonable time frame (200 s) when they were shielded by 10.16 cm of high-density polyethylene. The results obtained using the neutron noise analysis approach were compared with those obtained using the commonly used differential die-away analysis technique, a sensitive technique for detecting the presence of fissile materials by utilizing the prompt fission neutrons produced when the source neutrons from a neutron generator are completely diminished. For example, the time to detect 2 unshielded uranium slugs was 2.1 s when using the differential die-away analysis technique; it increased to 93 s for the neutron noise analysis approach. Although the noise analysis-based approach exhibits an overall performance which is not as good as that of differential die-away, neutron noise provides an alternative method for effective detection of special nuclear materials.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2020

Artificial neural network based isotopic analysis of airborne radioactivity measurement for radiological incident detection

Responders need tools to rapidly detect and identify airborne alpha radioactivity during consequence management scenarios. Traditional continuous air monitor systems used for this purpose compute the net counts in various energy windows to determine the presence of specified isotopes, such as 235U, 239Pu, and 241Am. These calculations rely on having a well-calibrated detector, which is challenging in low-background environments. Here an alternative approach of using artificial neural networks to classify alpha spectra is presented. Two network architectures, fully connected and convolutional networks, were trained to classify alpha spectra into four categories: background and background plus the three isotopes above. Sources were injected into measured background at various fractions of the derived response level (DRL) corresponding to early-phase Protective Action Guides. The convolutional network identifies all sources at 1% of the DRL with average probability of detection of 95% and false alarm probability of 1%. Further, the network identifies sources ranging between 0.25% and 1% of the DRL with higher than 80% probability of detection and lower than 7% false alarm probability. Most significantly, the network performance improves in low-count background conditions, increasing its minimum probability of detection to 93% and reducing the false alarm probabilities to lower than 0.25%. These results show that, once trained on datasets representing a range of detection scenarios, artificial neural networks can accurately identify alpha isotopes of interest without the need for detector calibration.

Woldegiorgis, Surafel F.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Analysis of Eddy Current Capabilities for the Detection of Outer Diameter Stress Corrosion Cracking in Small Bore Metallic Structures

The use of eddy current techniques for the detection of outer diameter damage in tubing and many complex aerospace structures often requires the use of an inner diameter probe due to a lack of access to the outside of the part. In small bore structures the probe size and orientation are constrained by the inner diameter of the part, complicating the optimization of the inspection technique. Detection of flaws through a significant remaining wall thickness becomes limited not only by the standard depth of penetration, but also geometrical aspects of the probe. Recently, an orthogonal eddy current probe was developed for detection of such flaws in Space Shuttle Primary Reaction Control System (PRCS) Thrusters. In this case, the detection of deeply buried stress corrosion cracking by an inner diameter eddy current probe was sought. Probe optimization was performed based upon the limiting spatial dimensions, flaw orientation, and required detection sensitivity. Analysis of the probe/flaw interaction was performed through the use of finite and boundary element modeling techniques. Experimental data for the flaw detection capabilities, including a probability of detection study, will be presented along with the simulation data. The results of this work have led to the successful deployment of an inspection system for the detection of stress corrosion cracking in Space Shuttle Primary Reaction Control System (PRCS) Thrusters.

Wincheski, Buzz↗
DOE OSTI2014

Network Algorithms for Detection of Radiation Sources

In support of national defense, Domestic Nuclear Detection Office’s (DNDO) Intelligent Radiation Sensor Systems (IRSS) program supported the development of networks of radiation counters for detecting, localizing and identifying low-level, hazardous radiation sources. Industry teams developed the first generation of such networks with tens of counters, and demonstrated several of their capabilities in indoor and outdoor characterization tests. Subsequently, these test measurements have been used in algorithm replays using various sub-networks of counters. Test measurements combined with algorithm outputs are used to extract Key Measurements and Benchmark (KMB) datasets. We present two selective analyses of these datasets: (a) a notional border monitoring scenario that highlights the benefits of a network of counters compared to individual detectors, and (b) new insights into the Sequential Probability Ratio Test (SPRT) detection method, which lead to its adaptations for improved detection. Using KMB datasets from an outdoor test, we construct a notional border monitoring scenario, wherein twelve 2”*2” NaI detectors are deployed on the periphery of 21*21meter square region. A Cs-137 (175 uCi) source is moved across this region, starting several meters from outside and finally moving away. The measurements from individual counters and the network were processed using replays of a particle filter algorithm developed under IRSS program. The algorithm outputs from KMB datasets clearly illustrate the benefits of combining measurements from all networked counters: the source was detected before it entered the region, during its trajectory inside, and until it moved several meters away. When individual counters are used for detection, the source was detected for much shorter durations, and sometimes was missed in the interior region. The application of SPRT for detecting radiation sources requires choosing the detection threshold, which in turn requires a source strength estimate, typically specified as a multiplier of the background radiation level. A judicious selection of this source multiplier is essential to achieve optimal detection probability at a specified false alarm rate. Typically, this threshold is chosen from the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) by varying the source multiplier estimate. ROC is expected to have a monotonically increasing profile between the detection probability and false alarm rate. We derived ROCs for multiple indoor tests using KMB datasets, which revealed an unexpected loop shape: as the multiplier increases, detection probability and false alarm rate both increase until a limit, and then both contract. Consequently, two detection probabilities correspond to the same false alarm rate, and the higher is achieved at a lower multiplier, which is the desired operating point. Using the Chebyshev’s inequality we analytically confirm this shape. Then, we present two improved network-SPRT methods by (a) using the threshold off-set as a weighting factor for the binary decisions from individual detectors in a weighted majority voting fusion rule, and (b) applying a composite SPRT derived using measurements from all counters.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
NASA NTRS1987

Statistical evaluation of vibration analysis techniques

An evaluation methodology is presented for a selection of candidate vibration analysis techniques applicable to machinery representative of the environmental control and life support system of advanced spacecraft; illustrative results are given. Attention is given to the statistical analysis of small sample experiments, the quantification of detection performance for diverse techniques through the computation of probability of detection versus probability of false alarm, and the quantification of diagnostic performance.

Milner, G. Martin↗
NASA NTRS1993

Stochastic performance modeling and evaluation of obstacle detectability with imaging range sensors

Statistical modeling and evaluation of the performance of obstacle detection systems for Unmanned Ground Vehicles (UGVs) is essential for the design, evaluation, and comparison of sensor systems. In this report, we address this issue for imaging range sensors by dividing the evaluation problem into two levels: quality of the range data itself and quality of the obstacle detection algorithms applied to the range data. We review existing models of the quality of range data from stereo vision and AM-CW LADAR, then use these to derive a new model for the quality of a simple obstacle detection algorithm. This model predicts the probability of detecting obstacles and the probability of false alarms, as a function of the size and distance of the obstacle, the resolution of the sensor, and the level of noise in the range data. We evaluate these models experimentally using range data from stereo image pairs of a gravel road with known obstacles at several distances. The results show that the approach is a promising tool for predicting and evaluating the performance of obstacle detection with imaging range sensors.

Matthies, Larry↗
DOE OSTI2014

COE Task Order 4. Final Report: Automated Threat Recognition

Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) was tasked by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Science and Technology Directorate (S&T) with developing an automated target recognition algorithm for finding objects of interest in checked baggage at airports. The project used x-ray computed tomography (CT) data collected on a medical scanner of various simulated checked bags. Target objects of interest include clay, rubber, and saline in various concentrations. The final results are 93.9% probability of detection (P D ) with 11.9% probability of false alarm (PFA) on all targets and 100% detection for pseudo target sheets. This result is achieved by using a three-stage algorithm made up of segmentation, post-processing, and feature extraction and object classification. The segmentation proved to be the most important stage and it involves merging two distinct segmentation results followed by a set of algorithms for cleaning up the merged segmentations. The first segmentation algorithm operates on planar 10x10 voxel slabs (two- dimensional segments) in the three spatial planes. The segmenter calculates a probability that each slab in the image is a part of a target, determines if the probability was above a threshold, and then merges all connected slabs together. The second segmentation algorithm is an ensemble segmenter, which generates a set of possible segmentations through random permutations and computes an average behavior. The distinct properties of these segmenters results in a merged segmentation with superior results than either segmenter alone. The merged segmentation is “cleaned up” using post processing techniques to achieve the final labeled images. The final classification stage made use of a random forest classifier algorithm to discriminate targets from non-targets based on a set of features of the segmented objects partially from the voxel slabs and partially from the individual voxels. Features include standard statistics such as mean, median, and standard deviations of the density, features capturing some aspects of texture, and some features about the surrounding bag structure. In addition to the detection and false alarm results above, we show how the algorithms can be trained to “overfit” to the limited data set provided and achieve near perfect results (P D =100% and P FA =0%). This over-training is not recommended for long-term operation, but instead is meant to demonstrate how test design is an important factor in aviation security. Possible improvements to the algorithm and the testing methodology (including blind testing) are also presented.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS2019

Assessing Reliability of NDE Flaw Detection Using Smaller Number of Demonstration Data Points

The paper provides an engineering analysis approach for assessing reliability of NDE flaw detection using smaller number of demonstration data points. It explores dependence of probability of detection (POD), probability of false positive (POF), on contrast-to-noise ratio, and net decision threshold-to-noise ratio in a simulated data; and draws some generically applicable inferences to devise the approach. ASTM nondestructive evaluation standards provide requirements on signal-to-noise ratio and/or contrast-to-noise ratio in order to provide reliable flaw detection and limit false positive calls. POD analysis of inspection test data results in an estimated flaw size, denoted by 𝑎90/95. This flaw size has 90% POD and minimum 95% confidence. POF is also estimated in the analysis. POD demonstration requires specimens with flaws of known size. In many situations, it is very expensive to produce the large number of flaws required for the POD analysis. In some situations, only real flaws can truly represent the flaws for demonstration. Real flaws of correct size and location in part configuration specimen may be difficult to produce, if not impossible. Here, an engineering analysis approach is devised using simulation to assess reliability of NDE technique when a limited number of flaws are available for demonstration. In this simulation, a technique is considered reliable, if it provides flaw detectability size equal to or better than the theoretical 𝑎90𝑡ℎ used in simulation and also provides a POF less than or equal to a chosen value. The paper uses simulated signal response versus flaw size data to devise the approach. Linear correlation is used between the signal response data and flaw size. POD software mh1823 uses generalized linear model (GLM) in POD analysis after transforming the flaw size and signal response, if needed, using logarithm. Therefore, this approach is in agreement with the linear signal correlation used in mh1823. Using the POD analysis of data, generic conditions on contrast-to-noise ratio and net decision threshold-to-noise ratio are derived for reliable flaw detection. In order to assess technique reliability using the engineering approach, signal response-to-flaw size correlation about the flaw size of concern is needed. In addition, measurement of noise is also needed. If the technique meets the above requirements, assumption of linear signal-to-flaw size correlation and conditions on noise, then the technique can be assessed using this analysis as it fits the underlying POD model used here. The approach is conservative and is designed to provide a larger flaw size compared to the POD approach. Such NDE technique assessment approach, although, not as rigorous as POD, can be cost effective if the larger flaw size can be tolerated. Typically, this is a situation for all quality control NDE inspections. Here, an NDE technique needs to be reliable and 𝑎90/95 is not estimated, but the assessed flaw size is assumed to be larger than the unknown a90 due to conservative factors or margins. Applicability of the approach for assessing reliability of flaw detection in x-ray radiography and 2D imaging in general is also explored.

Koshti, Ajay M.↗
NASA NTRS1970

Investigation of an Optimum Detection Scheme for a Star-Field Mapping System

An investigation was made to determine the optimum detection scheme for a star-field mapping system that uses coded detection resulting from starlight shining through specially arranged multiple slits of a reticle. The computer solution of equations derived from a theoretical model showed that the greatest probability of detection for a given star and background intensity occurred with the use of a single transparent slit. However, use of multiple slits improved the system's ability to reject the detection of undesirable lower intensity stars, but only by decreasing the probability of detection for lower intensity stars to be mapped. Also, it was found that the coding arrangement affected the root-mean-square star-position error and that detection is possible with error in the system's detected spin rate, though at a reduced probability.

Aldridge, M. D.↗
DOE OSTI2015

Spectral anomaly methods for aerial detection using KUT nuisance rejection

Aerial detection combines all the challenges of standoff detection with all the difficulties of mobile survey, including large and varying standoff distances and abrupt and significant changes in background. Critical issues for aerial detection include land-water interfaces, rapidly changing KUT backgrounds, and varying down scatter with altitude changes. To address these issues a spectral anomaly method has been adapted to aerial detection. The NSCRAD (Nuisance-Rejection Spectral Comparison Ratio) algorithm was initially developed at PNNL for medium resolution detectors. The algorithm has been used for a range of ground-based detection applications, including ground-based detection, portal monitoring, and OSI applications. The method used in NSCRAD includes both optimized energy windows for detection of threat sources and a nuisance rejection capability. Additionally, the spectral anomaly method was optimized in this work for aerial detection systems to increase the probability of detection of threat sources in aerial search while using the nuisance rejection capability to minimize false alarms from rapidly changing aerial background. The adaptation of NSCRAD for aerial detection includes re-optimization of energy windows, adapting KUT nuisance rejection for aerial backgrounds, development of new methods for background tracking and adjustment of tracking and detection thresholds.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2016

A tamper-indicating quantum seal

Technical means for identifying when tampering occurs is a critical part of many containment and surveillance technologies. Conventional fiber optic seals provide methods for monitoring enclosed inventories, but they are vulnerable to spoofing attacks based on classical physics. We address these vulnerabilities with the development of a quantum seal that offers the ability to detect the intercept-resend attack using quantum integrity verification. Our approach represents an application of entanglement to provide guarantees in the authenticity of the seal state by verifying it was transmitted coherently. We implement these ideas using polarization-entangled photon pairs that are verified after passing through a fiber-optic channel testbed. Using binary detection theory, we find the probability of detecting inauthentic signals is greater than 0.9999 with a false alarm chance of 10 –9 for a 10 second sampling interval. In addition, we show how the Hong-Ou-Mandel effect concurrently provides a tight bound on redirection attack, in which tampering modifies the shape of the seal. Our measurements limit the tolerable path length change to sub-millimeter disturbances. As a result, these tamper-indicating features of the quantum seal offer unprecedented security for unattended monitoring systems.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
NASA NTRS2007

Applicability of a Conservative Margin Approach for Assessing NDE Flaw Detectability

Nondestructive Evaluation (NDE) procedures are required to detect flaws in structures with a high percentage detectability and high confidence. Conventional Probability of Detection (POD) methods are statistical in nature and require detection data from a relatively large number of flaw specimens. In many circumstances, due to the high cost and long lead time, it is impractical to build the large set of flaw specimens that is required by the conventional POD methodology. Therefore, in such situations it is desirable to have a flaw detectability estimation approach that allows for a reduced number of flaw specimens but provides a high degree of confidence in establishing the flaw detectability size. This paper presents an alternative approach called the conservative margin approach (CMA). To investigate the applicability of the CMA approach, flaw detectability sizes determined by the CMA and POD approaches have been compared on actual datasets. The results of these comparisons are presented and the applicability of the CMA approach is discussed.

Koshti, ajay M.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Some Observations on Damage Tolerance Analyses in Pressure Vessels

AIAA standards S080 and S081 are applicable for certification of metallic pressure vessels (PV) and composite overwrap pressure vessels (COPV), respectively. These standards require damage tolerance analyses with a minimum reliable detectible flaw/crack and demonstration of safe life four times the service life with these cracks at the worst-case location in the PVs and oriented perpendicular to the maximum principal tensile stress. The standards require consideration of semi-elliptical surface cracks in the range of aspect ratios (crack depth a to half of the surface length c, i.e., (a/c) of 0.2 to 1). NASA-STD-5009 provides the minimum reliably detectible standard crack sizes (90/95 probability of detection (POD) for several non-destructive evaluation (NDE) methods (eddy current (ET), penetrant (PT), radiography (RT) and ultrasonic (UT)) for the two limits of the aspect ratio range required by the AIAA standards. This paper tries to answer the questions: can the safe life analysis consider only the life for the crack sizes at the two required limits, or endpoints, of the (a/c) range for the NDE method used or does the analysis need to consider values within that range? What would be an appropriate method to interpolate 90/95 POD crack sizes at intermediate (a/c) values? Several procedures to develop combinations of a and c within the specified range are explored. A simple linear relationship between a and c is chosen to compare the effects of seven different approaches to determine combinations of aj and cj that are between the (a/c) endpoints. Two of the seven are selected for evaluation: Approach I, the simple linear relationship, and a more conservative option, Approach III. For each of these two Approaches, the lives are computed for initial semi-elliptic crack configurations in a plate subjected to remote tensile fatigue loading with an R-ratio of 0.1, for an assumed material evaluated using NASGRO (registered 4) version 8.1. These calculations demonstrate that for this loading, using Approach I and the initial detectable crack sizes at the (a/c) endpoints in 5009 specified for the ET and UT NDE methods, the smallest life is not at the two required limits of the (a/c) range, but rather is at an intermediate configuration in the range (a/c) of 0.4 to 0.6. Similar analyses using both Approach I and III with the initial detectable crack size at the (a/c) endpoints in 5009 for PT NDE showed the smallest life may be at an (a/c) endpoint or an intermediate (a/c), depending upon which Approach is used. As such, analyses that interrogate only the two (a/c) values of 0.2 and 1 may result in unconservative life predictions. The standard practice may need to be revised based on these results.

Raju, Ivatury S.↗
NASA NTRS2007

NASA NDE Program

This viewgraph presentation describes the NASA Nondestructive Evaluation (NDE) Program. The contents include: 1) NASA NDE Program; 2) Nondestructive Evaluation Requirements for Fracture Critical Components; 3) Directed Design of Experiments for Probability of Detection (DOEPOD) A8002L data from NTIAC Capabilities Data Book, 1997; 4) Directed Design of Experiments for Probability of Detection (DOEPOD) Remove 94 samples from A8002L data; and 5) A8002L data from NTIAC Capabilities Data Book, 1997

Generazio, Edward R.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Importance of Contrast-to-Noise Ratio Sensitivity Function in Nondestructive Evaluation

A reliable nondestructive evaluation (NDE) technique provides minimum 90% probability of detection (POD) with 95% confidence for detection of cracklike flaws of a specific size. This requirement comes from fracture control. Fracture control is a risk assessment and control approach for preventing structural failure of fracture critical hardware during its service life. One of the approaches of fracture control is damage tolerance safe life analysis, which assumes that NDE reliably detectable size flaw may exist in the hardware post nondestructive evaluation. Analysis and/or testing are performed to verify that the hardware will not fail during its service life despite existence of such a flaw. NDE methods are conventionally qualified by probability of detection (POD) demonstration testing to ensure reliable flaw detection. Here, a novel and alternative to POD flaw detection reliability approach that uses contrast-to-noise ratio (CNR) is given. The approach uses CNR sensitivity function (SF) and CNR. CNR SF is the minimum CNR needed for reliable flaw detection as a function of certain flaw indication characteristics. Primary difference between POD approaches and CNR flaw detection reliability approach is resolution of flaw detection system. POD approach does not account for the resolution of the system, while CNR approach accounts for the flaw detection resolution. Resolution is determined from the modulation transfer function (MTF) of the flaw detection system. CNR flaw detection reliability approach emphasizes quantitative assessment of “how well each flaw indication is detected”. Therefore, CNR approach is helpful in reducing number of flaws in the sample used in NDE procedure qualification, resulting in cost and time savings. CNR approach is also a case of multi-hit flaw detection analysis which has better flaw detectability size than conventional single-hit flaw detectability. Thus, CNR approach, where applicable, may be superior to conventional POD approach. The paper is an overview of development of CNR modeling, CNR SF modeling and measurement by the author. The paper gives key references to currently used NDE procedure POD qualification approaches including those specific to CNR and CNR SF development in multi-hit flaw detection in NDE. The paper covers core topics in nondestructive evaluation engineering.

Contrast-to-noise ratio↗
NASA NTRS2012

A Search Model for Imperfectly Detected Targets

Under the assumptions that 1) the search region can be divided up into N non-overlapping sub-regions that are searched sequentially, 2) the probability of detection is unity if a sub-region is selected, and 3) no information is available to guide the search, there are two extreme case models. The search can be done perfectly, leading to a uniform distribution over the number of searches required, or the search can be done with no memory, leading to a geometric distribution for the number of searches required with a success probability of 1/N. If the probability of detection P is less than unity, but the search is done otherwise perfectly, the searcher will have to search the N regions repeatedly until detection occurs. The number of searches is thus the sum two random variables. One is N times the number of full searches (a geometric distribution with success probability P) and the other is the uniform distribution over the integers 1 to N. The first three moments of this distribution were computed, giving the mean, standard deviation, and the kurtosis of the distribution as a function of the two parameters. The model was fit to the data presented last year (Ahumada, Billington, & Kaiwi, 2 required to find a single pixel target on a simulated horizon. The model gave a good fit to the three moments for all three observers.

Ahumada, Albert↗
NASA NTRS2005

Global Positioning System (GPS) Precipitable Water in Forecasting Lightning at Spaceport Canaveral

Using meteorology data, focusing on precipitable water (PW), obtained during the 2000-2003 thunderstorm seasons in Central Florida, this paper will, one, assess the skill and accuracy measurements of the current Mazany forecasting tool and, two, provide additional forecasting tools that can be used in predicting lightning. Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) are located in east Central Florida. KSC and CCAFS process and launch manned (NASA Space Shuttle) and unmanned (NASA and Air Force Expendable Launch Vehicles) space vehicles. One of the biggest cost impacts is unplanned launch scrubs due to inclement weather conditions such as thunderstorms. Each launch delay/scrub costs over a quarter million dollars, and the need to land the Shuttle at another landing site and return to KSC costs approximately $ 1M. Given the amount of time lost and costs incurred, the ability to accurately forecast (predict) when lightning will occur can result in significant cost and time savings. All lightning prediction models were developed using binary logistic regression. Lightning is the dependent variable and is binary. The independent variables are the Precipitable Water (PW) value for a given time of the day, the change in PW up to 12 hours, the electric field mill value, and the K-index value. In comparing the Mazany model results for the 1999 period B against actual observations for the 2000-2003 thunderstorm seasons, differences were found in the False Alarm Rate (FAR), Probability of Detection (POD) and Hit Rate (H). On average, the False Alarm Rate (FAR) increased by 58%, the Probability of Detection (POD) decreased by 31% and the Hit Rate decreased by 20%. In comparing the performance of the 6 hour forecast period to the performance of the 1.5 hour forecast period for the Mazany model, the FAR was lower by 15% and the Hit Rate was higher by 7%. However, the POD for the 6 hour forecast period was lower by 16% as compared to the POD of the 1.5 hour forecast period. Neither forecast period performed at the accuracy measures expected. A 2-Hr Forecasting Tool was developed to support a Phase I Lightning Advisory, which requires a 30-minute lead time for predicting lightning.

Kehrer, Kristen↗