Threshold determination in sequential detection with fixed error rates
Bayes sequential detection test with constrained error probabilities, investigating properties of thresholds equations
Gagliardi, R. M.↗
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Opportunities for Earth Observation to Inform Risk Management for Ocean Tipping Points
Abstract As climate change continues, the likelihood of passing critical thresholds or tipping points increases. Hence, there is a need to advance the science for detecting such thresholds. In this paper, we assess the needs and opportunities for Earth Observation (EO, here understood to refer to satellite observations) to inform society in responding to the risks associated with ten potential large-scale ocean tipping elements: Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation; Atlantic Subpolar Gyre; Beaufort Gyre; Arctic halocline; Kuroshio Large Meander; deoxygenation; phytoplankton; zooplankton; higher level ecosystems (including fisheries); and marine biodiversity. We review current scientific understanding and identify specific EO and related modelling needs for each of these tipping elements. We draw out some generic points that apply across several of the elements. These common points include the importance of maintaining long-term, consistent time series; the need to combine EO data consistently with in situ data types (including subsurface), for example through data assimilation; and the need to reduce or work with current mismatches in resolution (in both directions) between climate models and EO datasets. Our analysis shows that developing EO, modelling and prediction systems together, with understanding of the strengths and limitations of each, provides many promising paths towards monitoring and early warning systems for tipping, and towards the development of the next generation of climate models.
Wood, Richard A. (ORCID:0000000239609513)↗
Correlation detection of impulse noise for FM threshold extension
FM demodulation threshold extension by correlation detection implemented in impulse noise cancellation system
Arndt, G. D.↗
Perception of linear acceleration in weightlessness
Eye movements and subjective detection of acceleration were measured on human experimental subjects during vestibular sled acceleration during the D1 Spacelab Mission. Methods and results are reported on the time to detection of small acceleration steps, the threshold for detection of linear acceleration, perceived motion path, and CLOAT. A consistently shorter time to detection of small acceleration steps is found. Subjective reports of perceived motion during sinusoidal oscillation in weightlessness were qualitatively similar to reports on earth.
Arrott, A. P.↗
Low-Noise Free-Running High-Rate Photon-Counting for Space Communication and Ranging
We present performance data for low-noise free-running high-rate photon counting method for space optical communication and ranging. NASA GSFC is testing the performance of two types of novel photon-counting detectors 1) a 2x8 mercury cadmium telluride (HgCdTe) avalanche array made by DRS Inc., and a 2) a commercial 2880-element silicon avalanche photodiode (APD) array. We successfully measured real-time communication performance using both the 2 detected-photon threshold and logic AND-gate coincidence methods. Use of these methods allows mitigation of dark count, after-pulsing and background noise effects without using other method of Time Gating The HgCdTe APD array routinely demonstrated very high photon detection efficiencies ((is) greater than 50%) at near infrared wavelength. The commercial silicon APD array exhibited a fast output with rise times of 300 ps and pulse widths of 600 ps. On-chip individually filtered signals from the entire array were multiplexed onto a single fast output. NASA GSFC has tested both detectors for their potential application for space communications and ranging. We developed and compare their performances using both the 2 detected photon threshold and coincidence methods.
Photons↗
Low-Noise Free-Running High-Rate Photon-Counting for Space Communication and Ranging
We present performance data for low-noise free-running high-rate photon counting method for space optical communication and ranging. NASA GSFC is testing the performance of two types of novel photon-counting detectors 1) a 2x8 mercury cadmium telluride (HgCdTe) avalanche array made by DRS Inc., and a 2) a commercial 2880-element silicon avalanche photodiode (APD) array. We successfully measured real-time communication performance using both the 2 detected-photon threshold and logic AND-gate coincidence methods. Use of these methods allows mitigation of dark count, after-pulsing and background noise effects without using other method of Time Gating The HgCdTe APD array routinely demonstrated very high photon detection efficiencies (50) at near infrared wavelength. The commercial silicon APD array exhibited a fast output with rise times of 300 ps and pulse widths of 600 ps. On-chip individually filtered signals from the entire array were multiplexed onto a single fast output. NASA GSFC has tested both detectors for their potential application for space communications and ranging. We developed and compare their performances using both the 2 detected photon threshold and coincidence methods.
Photons↗
Detecting Risk and Anomalies in Airplane Dynamics Through Entropic Analysis of Time Series Data
Despite recent efforts to move away from traditional threshold exceedance detection methods for aircraft state monitoring, modern aircraft still rely on safety thresholds to communicate to pilots the identification of an anomaly in the aircraft when a threshold is surpassed. Current anomaly detection methods mainly depend on uninterpretable machine learning models to learn complex patterns and relationships contained in the time series data of aircraft. Although these methods are capable of identifying known anomalies, their deficiency in interpretability presents a challenge when translating them to different aircraft. To overcome this deficiency, entropic analysis of aircraft dynamics seeks to characterize the complexity, or lack thereof, of the aircraft dynamics prior to the development of a risk scenario. This complexity characterization provides a more straightforward summary of state changes in the dynamics of flight variables. To build a foundation for entropic analysis, we analyzed the complexity of unstable approaches, an anomalous event present in many of today’s aviation accidents. The analysis revealed a statistically significant difference in the complexity distribution of flight variables under a stable approach versus an unstable approach. These differences in complexity were especially notable minutes before an approach was identified as unstable. Moreover, the multiscale entropic analysis revealed the presence of signal complexity at multiple time scales across multiple time windows before landing. By capturing state changes and corrections in the aircraft dynamics using entropy, advanced, yet still interpretable, sensor systems based on entropic frameworks from this study can be constructed in the future using classical machine learning approaches.
Risk detection↗
New observations of the low frequency interplanetary radio emissions
Recent Voyager 1 observations reveal reoccurrences of the low frequency interplanetary radio emissions. Three of the new events are weak transient events which rise in frequency from the range of 2-2.5 kHz to about 3 kHz with drift rates of about 1.5 kHz/year. The first of the transient events begins in mid-1989 and the more recent pair of events was first detected in late 1990. In addition, there is an apparent onset of a 2-kHz component of the emission beginning near day 70 of 1991. The new transient emissions are barely detectable on Voyager 1 and are below the threshold of detectability on Voyager 2. The new activity provides new opportunities to test various theories of the triggering, generation, and propagation of the outer heliospheric radio emissions and may signal a response of the source of the radio emissions to the increased solar activity associated with the recent peak in the solar cycle.
Kurth, W. S.↗
New observations of the low frequency interplanetary radio emissions
Recent Voyager 1 observations reveal reoccurrences of the low frequency interplanetary radio emissions. Three of the new events are weak transient events which rise in frequency from the range of 2-2.5 kHz to about 3 kHz with drift rates of approximately 1.5 kHz/year. The first of the transient events begins in mid-1989 and the more recent pair of events both were first detected in late 1991. In addition, there is an apparent onset of a 2-kHz component of the emission beginning near day 70 of 1991. The new transient emissions are barely detectable on Voyager 1 and are below the threshold of detectability on Voyager 2, which is less sensitive than Voyager 1. The new activity provides new opportunities to test various theories of the triggering, generation, and propagation of the outer heliospheric radio emissions and may signal a response of the source of the radio emissions to the increased solar activity associated with the recent peak in the solar cycle.
Kurth, W. S.↗
EPCAPE-PT-LANL Measurements: Single Particle Soot Photometer
Coastal cities offer a unique environment for studying aerosol-cloud interactions and the effects of urban emissions on cloud properties. As part of the Eastern Pacific Cloud Aerosol Precipitation Experiment (EPCAPE), the Partitioning Thrust by Los Alamos National Laboratory (EPCAPE-PT-LANL) was conducted. Our campaign focused on measuring the optical and chemical properties of aerosols and their interactions within marine stratocumulus clouds in La Jolla, California. EPCAPE-PT-LANL enhances the primary goals of EPCAPE through innovative observations of vapor-phase transitions between aerosols and cloud droplets, the impact of black carbon on aerosol-cloud dynamics, and the effects of cloud processing on aerosol optical properties. Instrument: Single Particle Soot Photometer (Droplet Measurements Technology) Data Notes: Contact us if you want additional data products from this instrument. Reported data is the black carbon (rBC) number and mass concentration with diagnostic flags. The SP2 measures incandescence from particles that is induced with a 1064 Nd-YAG laser. Particles that absorb the laser energy and then emit radiation is assumed to contain black carbon. The amount of intensity of radiation is related to the mass of absorbing material in the particle. Here, we calibrate the incandescence intensity to size selected Regal Black (Cabot) nebulized from solution. Data provided for the EPCAPE campaign used the combined broadband high-gain + low-gain channels (BHBL). Each channel has a lower threshold of detection equivalent to 2-s of the respective channel noise. Thresholding has been applied to select between the high-gain and low-gain channels. The detection limit is 80-540 nm (Deq) or 0.36- 55 fg. It is assumed that rBC is the only aerosol type that is in significant concentration in the sampled atmosphere that absorbs the laser energy. Particle data are integrated over 10 second windows to calculate a rBC number and mass concentration. QC/QA: • Diagnostic flags that impacted measured concentration: - Sample, Sheath, and Purge Flow Rates: Despite observing fluctuations in all flows, the rBC detection and mass quantification are generally observed to be stable, although large changes in sample flow rate did impact detection efficiency. A flag was implemented for sample flow deviations >12 cm3/min from the set point averaged over 30 seconds - Laser Power: Detection efficiency decreases with laser power and deviations in laser power also affect mass quantification. Flag for laser power is set for deviations in laser current from the set value >5 mA. - Primary Detector Threshold: Primary thresholding is the signal value which determines whether a “particle” is recorded. Thresholding errors occur when the threshold value is too HIGH and real particles are ignored. • Several periods without data: - 16-18 Nov: Ultra Zero Air generator failure, flows deviated significantly from set points. rBC # conc recovered but questionable. - 20-21 Nov: Offline for calibrations for several hours each day. - 25-27 Nov: Data is missing. - 30 Nov: Power outage 3 Dec: SP2 hard-drive full. - 3 Dec: Power Outage Header: - BHBL_NumbConc[#/cc]: Refers to the number concentration of refractory black carbon (rBC) measured from combined broadband high-gain and low-gain channels, expressed in particles per cubic centimeter. - BHBL_BCMass_Conc[ug/m3]: Refers to the mass concentration of refractory black carbon (rBC) measured from combined broadband high-gain and low-gain channels, expressed in micrograms per cubic meter. - NoData_Flag[bool]: A boolean flag that indicates whether no data was recorded during a measurement. - NoBC_Flag[bool]: A boolean flag indicating whether no black carbon particles were recorded during the measurement. - Laser_Flag[bool]: A boolean flag indicating deviations in laser current during the measurement. - SampleFlow_Flag[bool]: A boolean flag indicating deviations from the set sample flow rate during the measurement. - PrimThresh_Flag[bool]: A boolean flag indicating deviations from the set primary threshold during the measurement, potentially ignoring real particles. - Manual_Flag[bool]: A boolean flag indicating manual intervention or adjustments during the measurement. - CVI_Flag[bool]: A boolean flag indicating whether the Counterflow Virtual Impactor (CVI) was active or inactive during the measurement.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Detection of incoherent objects by a quantum- limited optical system.
Incoherent object threshold light detection by quantum limited optical system in presence of radiant thermal energy
Helstrom, C. W.↗
Sonoluminescence Bubble Measurements using Vision-Based Algorithms
Vision-based measurement methods were used to measure bubble sizes in this sonoluminescence experiment. Bubble imaging was accomplished by placing the bubble between a bright light source and a microscope-CCD camera system. A collimated light-emitting diode was operated in a pulsed model with an adjustable time delay with respect to the piezo-electric transducer drive signal. The light-emitting diode produced a bubble shadowgraph consisting of a multiple exposure made by numerous light pulses imaged onto a charge-couple device camera. Each image was transferred from the camera to a computer-controlled machine vision system via a frame grabber. The frame grabber was equipped with on-board memory to accomodate sequential image buffering while images were transferred to the host processor and analyzed. This configuration allowed the host computer to perform diameter measurements, centroid position measurements and shape estimation in "real-time" as the next image was being acquired. Bubble size measurement accuracy with an uncertainty of 3 microns was achieved using standard lenses and machine vision algorithms. Bubble centroid position accuracy was also within the 3 micron tolerance of the vision system. This uncertainty estimation accounted for the optical spatial resolution, digitization errors and the edge detection algorithm accuracy. The vision algorithms include camera calibration, thresholding, edge detection, edge position determination, distance between two edges computations and centroid position computations.
Hall, Nancy R.↗
Investigation of Current Methods to Identify Helicopter Gear Health
This paper provides an overview of current vibration methods used to identify the health of helicopter transmission gears. The gears are critical to the transmission system that provides propulsion, lift and maneuvering of the helicopter. This paper reviews techniques used to process vibration data to calculate conditions indicators (CI s), guidelines used by the government aviation authorities in developing and certifying the Health and Usage Monitoring System (HUMS), condition and health indicators used in commercial HUMS, and different methods used to set thresholds to detect damage. Initial assessment of a method to set thresholds for vibration based condition indicators applied to flight and test rig data by evaluating differences in distributions between comparable transmissions are also discussed. Gear condition indicator FM4 values are compared on an OH58 helicopter during 14 maneuvers and an OH58 transmission test stand during crack propagation tests. Preliminary results show the distributions between healthy helicopter and rig data are comparable and distributions between healthy and damaged gears show significant differences.
Dempsey, Paula J.↗
Investigation of Current Methods to Identify Helicopter Gear Health
This paper provides an overview of current vibration methods used to identify the health of helicopter transmission gears. The gears are critical to the transmission system that provides propulsion, lift and maneuvering of the helicopter. This paper reviews techniques used to process vibration data to calculate conditions indicators (CI's), guidelines used by the government aviation authorities in developing and certifying the Health and Usage Monitoring System (HUMS), condition and health indicators used in commercial HUMS, and different methods used to set thresholds to detect damage. Initial assessment of a method to set thresholds for vibration based condition indicators applied to flight and test rig data by evaluating differences in distributions between comparable transmissions are also discussed. Gear condition indicator FM4 values are compared on an OH58 helicopter during 14 maneuvers and an OH58 transmission test stand during crack propagation tests. Preliminary results show the distributions between healthy helicopter and rig data are comparable and distributions between healthy and damaged gears show significant differences.
Dempsey, Paula J.↗
Reliability analysis and fault-tolerant system development for a redundant strapdown inertial measurement unit
A methodology is developed and applied for quantitatively analyzing the reliability of a dual, fail-operational redundant strapdown inertial measurement unit (RSDIMU). A Markov evaluation model is defined in terms of the operational states of the RSDIMU to predict system reliability. A 27 state model is defined based upon a candidate redundancy management system which can detect and isolate a spectrum of failure magnitudes. The results of parametric studies are presented which show the effect on reliability of the gyro failure rate, both the gyro and accelerometer failure rates together, false alarms, probability of failure detection, probability of failure isolation, and probability of damage effects and mission time. A technique is developed and evaluated for generating dynamic thresholds for detecting and isolating failures of the dual, separated IMU. Special emphasis is given to the detection of multiple, nonconcurrent failures. Digital simulation time histories are presented which show the thresholds obtained and their effectiveness in detecting and isolating sensor failures.
Motyka, P.↗
Spectroscopic planetary detection
The Sun-as-a-star was monitored using the McMath Fourier transform spectometer (FTS) on Kitt Peak in 1983. In 1985 the first measurement was made using the laser heterodyne technique. The FTS measurements now extend for three years, with errors of order 3 meters/sec at a given epoch. Over this 3 year period, a 33 meter/sec change was measured in the apparent velocity of integrated sunlight. The sense of the effect is that a greater blueshift is seen near solar minimum, which is consistent with expectations based on considering the changing morphology of solar granular convection. Presuming this effect is solar-cycle-related, it will mimic the Doppler reflex produced by a planetary companion of approximately two Jupiter masses, with an 11 year orbital period. Thus, Jupiter itself is below the threshold for detection by spectroscopic means, without an additional technique for discrimination. However, for planetary companions in shorter period orbits (P approx. 3 years) the threshold for unambiguous detection is well below one Jupiter mass.
Deming, D.↗
Noise-Induced Building Vibrations Caused by Concorde and Conventional Aircraft Operations at Dulles and Kennedy International Airports
Outdoor and indoor noise levels resulting from aircraft flyovers and certain nonaircraft events were recorded, as were the associated vibration levels in the walls, windows, and floors at building test sites. In addition, limited subjective tests were conducted to examine the human detection and annoyance thresholds for building vibration and rattle caused by aircraft noise. Representative peak levels of aircraft noise-induced building vibrations are reported and comparisons are made with structural damage criteria and with vibration levels induced by common domestic events. In addition, results of a pilot study are reported which indicate the human detection threshold for noise-induced floor vibrations.
Mayes, W. H.↗
Preliminary results of a Monte Carlo simulation of burst directions by BATSE
The effect of varying BATSE trigger parameters on the modeled BATSE detection rate is investigated numerically. Quantitative estimates are obtained of the systematic effects generated by the complex interplay of trigger times, variations in the signal-to-noise ratio for burst detection as well as the time scale over which backgrounds are determined, and the number of required detections above threshold. It is found, in particular that employing a third detection, at a reduced signal-to-noise ratio, to resolve a burst does not increase the detection rate. It is also shown that the BATSE detection rate is insensitive to variations in the time scale over which the background is determined.
Higdon, J. C.↗