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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 253 records · Page 14
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1998

Comparison of Response Surface and Kriging Models in the Multidisciplinary Design of an Aerospike Nozzle

The use of response surface models and kriging models are compared for approximating non-random, deterministic computer analyses. After discussing the traditional response surface approach for constructing polynomial models for approximation, kriging is presented as an alternative statistical-based approximation method for the design and analysis of computer experiments. Both approximation methods are applied to the multidisciplinary design and analysis of an aerospike nozzle which consists of a computational fluid dynamics model and a finite element analysis model. Error analysis of the response surface and kriging models is performed along with a graphical comparison of the approximations. Four optimization problems are formulated and solved using both approximation models. While neither approximation technique consistently outperforms the other in this example, the kriging models using only a constant for the underlying global model and a Gaussian correlation function perform as well as the second order polynomial response surface models.

Simpson, Timothy W.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Development of a Probabilistic Dynamic Synthesis Method for the Analysis of Nondeterministic Structures

Accounting for the statistical geometric and material variability of structures in analysis has been a topic of considerable research for the last 30 years. The determination of quantifiable measures of statistical probability of a desired response variable, such as natural frequency, maximum displacement, or stress, to replace experience-based "safety factors" has been a primary goal of these studies. There are, however, several problems associated with their satisfactory application to realistic structures, such as bladed disks in turbomachinery. These include the accurate definition of the input random variables (rv's), the large size of the finite element models frequently used to simulate these structures, which makes even a single deterministic analysis expensive, and accurate generation of the cumulative distribution function (CDF) necessary to obtain the probability of the desired response variables. The research presented here applies a methodology called probabilistic dynamic synthesis (PDS) to solve these problems. The PDS method uses dynamic characteristics of substructures measured from modal test as the input rv's, rather than "primitive" rv's such as material or geometric uncertainties. These dynamic characteristics, which are the free-free eigenvalues, eigenvectors, and residual flexibility (RF), are readily measured and for many substructures, a reasonable sample set of these measurements can be obtained. The statistics for these rv's accurately account for the entire random character of the substructure. Using the RF method of component mode synthesis, these dynamic characteristics are used to generate reduced-size sample models of the substructures, which are then coupled to form system models. These sample models are used to obtain the CDF of the response variable by either applying Monte Carlo simulation or by generating data points for use in the response surface reliability method, which can perform the probabilistic analysis with an order of magnitude less computational effort. Both free- and forced-response analyses have been performed, and the results indicate that, while there is considerable room for improvement, the method produces usable and more representative solutions for the design of realistic structures with a substantial savings in computer time.

Brown, A. M.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Mathematical crew motion disturbance models for spacecraft control system design

Several techniques for modeling the disturbances to a spacecraft's attitude caused by moving crew members are presented. These disturbances can be the largest moments acting on a manned spacecraft, and knowledge of their effect is important in the sizing, design, and analysis/simulation of spacecraft attitude control systems. The modeling techniques are identified as two principal types: deterministic and stochastic. Three techniques of each type are presented. The deterministic models include point-mass motion derivatives and a discussion on dynamic models of moving crew members. The stochastic techniques are highlighted by a Fourier transform method and the representation of long-term crew disturbance activities as outputs from appropriately designed filters. A z-transform technique is developed to obtain a difference-equation form of stochastic models for use on digital computers. An appendix derives spacecraft equations of motion which can be used with many of the models discussed.

Conway, B. A.↗
NASA NTRS1992

A reliable algorithm for optimal control synthesis

In recent years, powerful design tools for linear time-invariant multivariable control systems have been developed based on direct parameter optimization. In this report, an algorithm for reliable optimal control synthesis using parameter optimization is presented. Specifically, a robust numerical algorithm is developed for the evaluation of the H(sup 2)-like cost functional and its gradients with respect to the controller design parameters. The method is specifically designed to handle defective degenerate systems and is based on the well-known Pade series approximation of the matrix exponential. Numerical test problems in control synthesis for simple mechanical systems and for a flexible structure with densely packed modes illustrate positively the reliability of this method when compared to a method based on diagonalization. Several types of cost functions have been considered: a cost function for robust control consisting of a linear combination of quadratic objectives for deterministic and random disturbances, and one representing an upper bound on the quadratic objective for worst case initial conditions. Finally, a framework for multivariable control synthesis has been developed combining the concept of closed-loop transfer recovery with numerical parameter optimization. The procedure enables designers to synthesize not only observer-based controllers but also controllers of arbitrary order and structure. Numerical design solutions rely heavily on the robust algorithm due to the high order of the synthesis model and the presence of near-overlapping modes. The design approach is successfully applied to the design of a high-bandwidth control system for a rotorcraft.

Vansteenwyk, Brett↗
NASA NTRS1997

Metamodels for Computer-Based Engineering Design: Survey and Recommendations

The use of statistical techniques to build approximations of expensive computer analysis codes pervades much of todays engineering design. These statistical approximations, or metamodels, are used to replace the actual expensive computer analyses, facilitating multidisciplinary, multiobjective optimization and concept exploration. In this paper we review several of these techniques including design of experiments, response surface methodology, Taguchi methods, neural networks, inductive learning, and kriging. We survey their existing application in engineering design and then address the dangers of applying traditional statistical techniques to approximate deterministic computer analysis codes. We conclude with recommendations for the appropriate use of statistical approximation techniques in given situations and how common pitfalls can be avoided.

Simpson, Timothy W.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Separating Gravitational Wave Signals from Instrument Artifacts

Central to the gravitational wave detection problem is the challenge of separating features in the data produced by astrophysical sources from features produced by the detector. Matched filtering provides an optimal solution for Gaussian noise, but in practice, transient noise excursions or "glitches" complicate the analysis. Detector diagnostics and coincidence tests can be used to veto many glitches which may otherwise be misinterpreted as gravitational wave signals. The glitches that remain can lead to long tails in the matched filter search statistics and drive up the detection threshold. Here we describe a Bayesian approach that incorporates a more realistic model for the instrument noise allowing for fluctuating noise levels that vary independently across frequency bands, and deterministic "glitch fitting" using wavelets as "glitch templates", the number of which is determined by a trans-dimensional Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. We demonstrate the method's effectiveness on simulated data containing low amplitude gravitational wave signals from inspiraling binary black hole systems, and simulated non-stationary and non-Gaussian noise comprised of a Gaussian component with the standard LIGO/Virgo spectrum, and injected glitches of various amplitude, prevalence, and variety. Glitch fitting allows us to detect significantly weaker signals than standard techniques.

Littenberg, Tyson B.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Position error propagation in the simplex strapdown navigation system

The results of an analysis of the effects of deterministic error sources on position error in the simplex strapdown navigation system were documented. Improving the long term accuracy of the system was addressed in two phases: understanding and controlling the error within the system, and defining methods of damping the net system error through the use of an external reference velocity or position. Review of the flight and ground data revealed error containing the Schuler frequency as well as non-repeatable trends. The only unbounded terms are those involving gyro bias and azimuth error coupled with velocity. All forms of Schuler-periodic position error were found to be sufficiently large to require update or damping capability unless the source coefficients can be limited to values less than those used in this analysis for misalignment and gyro and accelerometer bias. The first-order effects of the deterministic error sources were determined with a simple error propagator which provided plots of error time functions in response to various source error values.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2013

Evaluating Downscaling Methods for Seasonal Climate Forecasts over East Africa

The U.S. National Multi-Model Ensemble seasonal forecasting system is providing hindcast and real-time data streams to be used in assessing and improving seasonal predictive capacity. The NASA / USAID SERVIR project, which leverages satellite and modeling-based resources for environmental decision making in developing nations, is focusing on the evaluation of NMME forecasts specifically for use in impact modeling within hub regions including East Africa, the Hindu Kush-Himalayan (HKH) region and Mesoamerica. One of the participating models in NMME is the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS5). This work will present an intercomparison of downscaling methods using the GEOS5 seasonal forecasts of temperature and precipitation over East Africa. The current seasonal forecasting system provides monthly averaged forecast anomalies. These anomalies must be spatially downscaled and temporally disaggregated for use in application modeling (e.g. hydrology, agriculture). There are several available downscaling methodologies that can be implemented to accomplish this goal. Selected methods include both a non-homogenous hidden Markov model and an analogue based approach. A particular emphasis will be placed on quantifying the ability of different methods to capture the intermittency of precipitation within both the short and long rain seasons. Further, the ability to capture spatial covariances will be assessed. Both probabilistic and deterministic skill measures will be evaluated over the hindcast period.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Evaluating Downscaling Methods for Seasonal Climate Forecasts over East Africa

The U.S. National Multi-Model Ensemble seasonal forecasting system is providing hindcast and real-time data streams to be used in assessing and improving seasonal predictive capacity. The NASA / USAID SERVIR project, which leverages satellite and modeling-based resources for environmental decision making in developing nations, is focusing on the evaluation of NMME forecasts specifically for use in impact modeling within hub regions including East Africa, the Hindu Kush-Himalayan (HKH) region and Mesoamerica. One of the participating models in NMME is the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS5). This work will present an intercomparison of downscaling methods using the GEOS5 seasonal forecasts of temperature and precipitation over East Africa. The current seasonal forecasting system provides monthly averaged forecast anomalies. These anomalies must be spatially downscaled and temporally disaggregated for use in application modeling (e.g. hydrology, agriculture). There are several available downscaling methodologies that can be implemented to accomplish this goal. Selected methods include both a non-homogenous hidden Markov model and an analogue based approach. A particular emphasis will be placed on quantifying the ability of different methods to capture the intermittency of precipitation within both the short and long rain seasons. Further, the ability to capture spatial covariances will be assessed. Both probabilistic and deterministic skill measures will be evaluated over the hindcast period

Roberts, J. Brent↗
NASA NTRS2013

Probabilistic Modeling of the Renal Stone Formation Module

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a probabilistic tool, used in mission planning decision making and medical systems risk assessments. The IMM project maintains a database of over 80 medical conditions that could occur during a spaceflight, documenting an incidence rate and end case scenarios for each. In some cases, where observational data are insufficient to adequately define the inflight medical risk, the IMM utilizes external probabilistic modules to model and estimate the event likelihoods. One such medical event of interest is an unpassed renal stone. Due to a high salt diet and high concentrations of calcium in the blood (due to bone depletion caused by unloading in the microgravity environment) astronauts are at a considerable elevated risk for developing renal calculi (nephrolithiasis) while in space. Lack of observed incidences of nephrolithiasis has led HRP to initiate the development of the Renal Stone Formation Module (RSFM) to create a probabilistic simulator capable of estimating the likelihood of symptomatic renal stone presentation in astronauts on exploration missions. The model consists of two major parts. The first is the probabilistic component, which utilizes probability distributions to assess the range of urine electrolyte parameters and a multivariate regression to transform estimated crystal density and size distributions to the likelihood of the presentation of nephrolithiasis symptoms. The second is a deterministic physical and chemical model of renal stone growth in the kidney developed by Kassemi et al. The probabilistic component of the renal stone model couples the input probability distributions describing the urine chemistry, astronaut physiology, and system parameters with the physical and chemical outputs and inputs to the deterministic stone growth model. These two parts of the model are necessary to capture the uncertainty in the likelihood estimate. The model will be driven by Monte Carlo simulations, continuously randomly sampling the probability distributions of the electrolyte concentrations and system parameters that are inputs into the deterministic model. The total urine chemistry concentrations are used to determine the urine chemistry activity using the Joint Expert Speciation System (JESS), a biochemistry model. Information used from JESS is then fed into the deterministic growth model. Outputs from JESS and the deterministic model are passed back to the probabilistic model where a multivariate regression is used to assess the likelihood of a stone forming and the likelihood of a stone requiring clinical intervention. The parameters used to determine to quantify these risks include: relative supersaturation (RS) of calcium oxalate, citrate/calcium ratio, crystal number density, total urine volume, pH, magnesium excretion, maximum stone width, and ureteral location. Methods and Validation: The RSFM is designed to perform a Monte Carlo simulation to generate probability distributions of clinically significant renal stones, as well as provide an associated uncertainty in the estimate. Initially, early versions will be used to test integration of the components and assess component validation and verification (V&V), with later versions used to address questions regarding design reference mission scenarios. Once integrated with the deterministic component, the credibility assessment of the integrated model will follow NASA STD 7009 requirements.

kidney stones↗
NASA NTRS1994

Composite Load Spectra for Select Space Propulsion Structural Components

Generic load models are described with multiple levels of progressive sophistication to simulate the composite (combined) load spectra (CLS) that are induced in space propulsion system components, representative of Space Shuttle Main Engines (SSME), such as transfer ducts, turbine blades and liquid oxygen (LOX) posts. These generic (coupled) models combine the deterministic models for composite load dynamic, acoustic, high-pressure and high rotational speed, etc., load simulation using statistically varying coefficients. These coefficients are then determined using advanced probabilistic simulation methods with and without strategically selected experimental data. The entire simulation process is included in a CLS computer code. Applications of the computer code to various components in conjunction with the PSAM (Probabilistic Structural Analysis Method) to perform probabilistic load evaluation and life prediction evaluations are also described to illustrate the effectiveness of the coupled model approach.

Ho, Hing W.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Probability techniques for reliability analysis of composite materials

Traditional design approaches for composite materials have employed deterministic criteria for failure analysis. New approaches are required to predict the reliability of composite structures since strengths and stresses may be random variables. This report will examine and compare methods used to evaluate the reliability of composite laminae. The two types of methods that will be evaluated are fast probability integration (FPI) methods and Monte Carlo methods. In these methods, reliability is formulated as the probability that an explicit function of random variables is less than a given constant. Using failure criteria developed for composite materials, a function of design variables can be generated which defines a 'failure surface' in probability space. A number of methods are available to evaluate the integration over the probability space bounded by this surface; this integration delivers the required reliability. The methods which will be evaluated are: the first order, second moment FPI methods; second order, second moment FPI methods; the simple Monte Carlo; and an advanced Monte Carlo technique which utilizes importance sampling. The methods are compared for accuracy, efficiency, and for the conservativism of the reliability estimation. The methodology involved in determining the sensitivity of the reliability estimate to the design variables (strength distributions) and importance factors is also presented.

Wetherhold, Robert C.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Development of Methodologies for IV and V of Neural Networks

Non-deterministic systems often rely upon neural network (NN) technology to "lean" to manage flight systems under controlled conditions using carefully chosen training sets. How can these adaptive systems be certified to ensure that they will become increasingly efficient and behave appropriately in real-time situations? The bulk of Independent Verification and Validation (IV&V) research of non-deterministic software control systems such as Adaptive Flight Controllers (AFC's) addresses NNs in well-behaved and constrained environments such as simulations and strict process control. However, neither substantive research, nor effective IV&V techniques have been found to address AFC's learning in real-time and adapting to live flight conditions. Adaptive flight control systems offer good extensibility into commercial aviation as well as military aviation and transportation. Consequently, this area of IV&V represents an area of growing interest and urgency. ISR proposes to further the current body of knowledge to meet two objectives: Research the current IV&V methods and assess where these methods may be applied toward a methodology for the V&V of Neural Network; and identify effective methods for IV&V of NNs that learn in real-time, including developing a prototype test bed for IV&V of AFC's. Currently. no practical method exists. lSR will meet these objectives through the tasks identified and described below. First, ISR will conduct a literature review of current IV&V technology. TO do this, ISR will collect the existing body of research on IV&V of non-deterministic systems and neural network. ISR will also develop the framework for disseminating this information through specialized training. This effort will focus on developing NASA's capability to conduct IV&V of neural network systems and to provide training to meet the increasing need for IV&V expertise in such systems.

Taylor, Brian↗
NASA NTRS1992

Comparison of three controllers applied to helicopter vibration

A comparison was made of the applicability and suitability of the deterministic controller, the cautious controller, and the dual controller for the reduction of helicopter vibration by using higher harmonic blade pitch control. A randomly generated linear plant model was assumed and the performance index was defined to be a quadratic output metric of this linear plant. A computer code, designed to check out and evaluate these controllers, was implemented and used to accomplish this comparison. The effects of random measurement noise, the initial estimate of the plant matrix, and the plant matrix propagation rate were determined for each of the controllers. With few exceptions, the deterministic controller yielded the greatest vibration reduction (as characterized by the quadratic output metric) and operated with the greatest reliability. Theoretical limitations of these controllers were defined and appropriate candidate alternative methods, including one method particularly suitable to the cockpit, were identified.

Leyland, Jane A.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Design and Analysis of an X-Ray Mirror Assembly Using the Meta-Shell Approach

Lightweight and high resolution optics are needed for future space-based x-ray telescopes to achieve advances in high-energy astrophysics. Past missions such as Chandra and XMM-Newton have achieved excellent angular resolution using a full shell mirror approach. Other missions such as Suzaku and NuSTAR have achieved lightweight mirrors using a segmented approach. This paper describes a new approach, called meta-shells, which combines the fabrication advantages of segmented optics with the alignment advantages of full shell optics. Meta-shells are built by layering overlapping mirror segments onto a central structural shell. The resulting optic has the stiffness and rotational symmetry of a full shell, but with an order of magnitude greater collecting area. Several meta-shells so constructed can be integrated into a large x-ray mirror assembly by proven methods used for Chandra and XMM-Newton. The mirror segments are mounted to the meta-shell using a novel four point semi-kinematic mount. The four point mount deterministically locates the segment in its most performance sensitive degrees of freedom. Extensive analysis has been performed to demonstrate the feasibility of the four point mount and meta-shell approach. A mathematical model of a meta-shell constructed with mirror segments bonded at four points and subject to launch loads has been developed to determine the optimal design parameters, namely bond size, mirror segment span, and number of layers per meta-shell. The parameters of an example 1.3 m diameter mirror assembly are given including the predicted effective area. To verify the mathematical model and support opto-mechanical analysis, a detailed finite element model of a meta-shell was created. Finite element analysis predicts low gravity distortion and low sensitivity to thermal gradients.

module↗
NASA NTRS2016

Meta-shell Approach for Constructing Lightweight and High Resolution X-Ray Optics

Lightweight and high resolution optics are needed for future space-based x-ray telescopes to achieve advances in high-energy astrophysics. Past missions such as Chandra and XMM-Newton have achieved excellent angular resolution using a full shell mirror approach. Other missions such as Suzaku and NuSTAR have achieved lightweight mirrors using a segmented approach. This paper describes a new approach, called meta-shells, which combines the fabrication advantages of segmented optics with the alignment advantages of full shell optics. Meta-shells are built by layering overlapping mirror segments onto a central structural shell. The resulting optic has the stiffness and rotational symmetry of a full shell, but with an order of magnitude greater collecting area. Several meta-shells so constructed can be integrated into a large x-ray mirror assembly by proven methods used for Chandra and XMM-Newton. The mirror segments are mounted to the meta-shell using a novel four point semi-kinematic mount. The four point mount deterministically locates the segment in its most performance sensitive degrees of freedom. Extensive analysis has been performed to demonstrate the feasibility of the four point mount and meta-shell approach. A mathematical model of a meta-shell constructed with mirror segments bonded at four points and subject to launch loads has been developed to determine the optimal design parameters, namely bond size, mirror segment span, and number of layers per meta-shell. The parameters of an example 1.3 m diameter mirror assembly are given including the predicted effective area. To verify the mathematical model and support opto-mechanical analysis, a detailed finite element model of a meta-shell was created. Finite element analysis predicts low gravity distortion and low thermal distortion. Recent results are discussed including Structural Thermal Optical Performance (STOP) analysis as well as vibration and shock testing of prototype meta-shells.

Lightweight and high resolution optics↗
NASA NTRS1984

Wind shear measuring on board an airliner

A measurement technique which continuously determines the wind vector on board an airliner during takeoff and landing is introduced. Its implementation is intended to deliver sufficient statistical background concerning low frequency wind changes in the atmospheric boundary layer and extended knowledge about deterministic wind shear modeling. The wind measurement scheme is described and the adaptation of apparatus onboard an A300 airbus is shown. Preliminary measurements made during level flight demonstrate the validity of the method.

Krauspe, P.↗