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At least 253 records · Page 14

Random field estimation approach to robot dynamics

The difference equations of Kalman filtering and smoothing recursively factor and invert the covariance of the output of a linear state-space system driven by a white-noise process. Here it is shown that similar recursive techniques factor and invert the inertia matrix of a multibody robot system. The random field models are based on the assumption that all of the inertial (D'Alembert) forces in the system are represented by a spatially distributed white-noise model. They are easier to describe than the models based on classical mechanics, which typically require extensive derivation and manipulation of equations of motion for complex mechanical systems. With the spatially random models, more primitive locally specified computations result in a global collective system behavior equivalent to that obtained with deterministic models. The primary goal of applying random field estimation is to provide a concise analytical foundation for solving robot control and motion planning problems.

Rodriguez, Guillermo↗

Free-form Airfoil Shape Optimization Under Uncertainty Using Maximum Expected Value and Second-order Second-moment Strategies

Free-form shape optimization of airfoils poses unexpected difficulties. Practical experience has indicated that a deterministic optimization for discrete operating conditions can result in dramatically inferior performance when the actual operating conditions are different from the - somewhat arbitrary - design values used for the optimization. Extensions to multi-point optimization have proven unable to adequately remedy this problem of "localized optimization" near the sampled operating conditions. This paper presents an intrinsically statistical approach and demonstrates how the shortcomings of multi-point optimization with respect to "localized optimization" can be overcome. The practical examples also reveal how the relative likelihood of each of the operating conditions is automatically taken into consideration during the optimization process. This is a key advantage over the use of multipoint methods.

Huyse, Luc↗

Comparison of Different Control Schemes for Strategic Departure Metering

Airports and their terminal airspaces are key choke points in the air transportation system causing major delays and adding to pollution. A solution aimed at mitigating these chokepoints integrates the scheduling of runway operations, flight release from the gates and ramp into the airport movement area, and merging with other traffic competing for downstream airspace points. Within this integrated concept, we present a simulation-based analysis of the departure metering process, which delays the release of flights into the airport movement area while balancing two competing objectives: (1) maintaining large enough queues at the airport resources to maximize throughput and (2) absorbing excess delays at the gates or in ramp areas to save on fuel consumption, emissions, noise, and passenger discomfort. Three metering strategies are compared which respectively attempt to control the number of flights that (1) left the gate but did not take off, (2) left the ramp but did not take off, and (3) spent their unimpeded transit time to the runway but did not take off. It was observed that under deterministic and demand uncertainty conditions, the first strategy performed better than the other two strategies in terms of maintaining the runway throughput while transferring a significant average delay of two minutes to the gate. On the other hand, under uncertainties of flight transit time and runway service rate, all the strategies struggled to delay flights at the gate without a significant impact on the runway throughput.

air traffic management↗

150 Passenger Commercial Aircraft

It has been projected that the need for a short-range mid-sized, aircraft is increasing. The future strategy to decrease long-haul flights will increase the demand for short-haul flights. Since passengers prefer to meet their destinations quickly, airlines will increase the frequency of flights, which will reduce the passenger load on the aircraft. If a point-to-point flight is not possible, passengers will prefer only a one-stop short connecting flight to their final destination. A 150-passenger aircraft is an ideal vehicle for these situations. It is mid-sized aircraft and has a range of 3000 nautical miles. This type of aircraft would market U.S. domestic flights or inter-European flight routes. The objective of the design of the 150-passenger aircraft is to minimize fuel consumption. The configuration of the aircraft must be optimized. This aircraft must meet CO2 and NOx emissions standards with minimal acquisition price and operating costs. This report contains all the work that has been performed for the completion of the design of a 150 passenger commercial aircraft. The methodology used is the Technology Identification, Evaluation, and Selection (TIES) developed at Georgia Tech Aerospace Systems Design laboratory (ASDL). This is an eight-step conceptual design process to evaluate the probability of meeting the design constraints. This methodology also allows for the evaluation of new technologies to be implemented into the design. The TIES process begins with defining the problem with a need established and a market targeted. With the customer requirements set and the target values established, a baseline concept is created. Next, the design space is explored to determine the feasibility and viability of the baseline aircraft configuration. If the design is neither feasible nor viable, new technologies can be implemented to open up the feasible design space and allow for a plausible solution. After the new technologies are identified, they must be evaluated to determine the physical compatibility of integrating multiple technologies and then the impact on the design, both improvements and degradations, must be determined. These technologies are assessed deterministically. Again, Response Surface Equations (RSEs) are developed to allow for a full factorial evaluation of the combinations of the technologies. The best combination of technologies is selected and then the design space is again reevaluated for feasibility and viability.

Bucovsky, Adrian↗

Structural risk assessment and aircraft fleet maintenance

In the present analysis, deterministic flaw growth analysis is used to project the failure distributions from inspection data. Inspection data is reported for each critical point in the aircraft. The data will indicate either a crack of a specific size or no crack. The crack length may be either less than, equal to, or greater than critical size for that location. Non-critical length cracks are projected to failure using the crack growth characteristics for that location to find the life when it will be at critical length. Greater-than-critical length cracks are projected back to determine the life at failure, that is, when it was at critical length. The same process is used as in the case of a non-critical crack except that the projection goes the other direction. These points, along with the critical length cracks are used to determine the failure distribution. To be able to use data from different aircraft to build a common failure distribution, a consistent life variable must be used. Aircraft life varies with the severity of the usage; therefore the number of flight hours for a particular aircraft must be modified by its usage factor to obtain a normalized life which can be compared with that from other aircraft.

Smith, Herb, Jr.↗

Generic Kalman Filter Software

The Generic Kalman Filter (GKF) software provides a standard basis for the development of application-specific Kalman-filter programs. Historically, Kalman filters have been implemented by customized programs that must be written, coded, and debugged anew for each unique application, then tested and tuned with simulated or actual measurement data. Total development times for typical Kalman-filter application programs have ranged from months to weeks. The GKF software can simplify the development process and reduce the development time by eliminating the need to re-create the fundamental implementation of the Kalman filter for each new application. The GKF software is written in the ANSI C programming language. It contains a generic Kalman-filter-development directory that, in turn, contains a code for a generic Kalman filter function; more specifically, it contains a generically designed and generically coded implementation of linear, linearized, and extended Kalman filtering algorithms, including algorithms for state- and covariance-update and -propagation functions. The mathematical theory that underlies the algorithms is well known and has been reported extensively in the open technical literature. Also contained in the directory are a header file that defines generic Kalman-filter data structures and prototype functions and template versions of application-specific subfunction and calling navigation/estimation routine code and headers. Once the user has provided a calling routine and the required application-specific subfunctions, the application-specific Kalman-filter software can be compiled and executed immediately. During execution, the generic Kalman-filter function is called from a higher-level navigation or estimation routine that preprocesses measurement data and post-processes output data. The generic Kalman-filter function uses the aforementioned data structures and five implementation- specific subfunctions, which have been developed by the user on the basis of the aforementioned templates. The GKF software can be used to develop many different types of unfactorized Kalman filters. A developer can choose to implement either a linearized or an extended Kalman filter algorithm, without having to modify the GKF software. Control dynamics can be taken into account or neglected in the filter-dynamics model. Filter programs developed by use of the GKF software can be made to propagate equations of motion for linear or nonlinear dynamical systems that are deterministic or stochastic. In addition, filter programs can be made to operate in user-selectable "covariance analysis" and "propagation-only" modes that are useful in design and development stages.

Lisano, Michael E., II↗

The Role of Margin in Link Design and Optimization

Link analysis is a system engineering process in the design, development, and operation of communication systems and networks. Link models that are mathematical abstractions representing the useful signal power and the undesirable noise and attenuation effects (including weather effects if the signal path transverses through the atmosphere) that are integrated into the link budget calculation that provides the estimates of signal power and noise power at the receiver. Then the link margin is applied which attempts to counteract the fluctuations of the signal and noise power to ensure reliable data delivery from transmitter to receiver. (Link margin is dictated by the link margin policy or requirements.) A simple link budgeting approach assumes link parameters to be deterministic values typically adopted a rule-of-thumb policy of 3 dB link margin. This policy works for most S- and X-band links due to their insensitivity to weather effects. But for higher frequency links like Ka-band, Ku-band, and optical communication links, it is unclear if a 3 dB link margin would guarantee link closure. Statistical link analysis that adopted the 2-sigma or 3-sigma link margin incorporates link uncertainties in the sigma calculation. (The Deep Space Network (DSN) link margin policies are 2-sigma for downlink and 3-sigma for uplink.) The link reliability can therefore be quantified statistically even for higher frequency links. However in the current statistical link analysis approach, link reliability is only expressed as the likelihood of exceeding the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) threshold that corresponds to a given bit-error-rate (BER) or frame-error-rate (FER) requirement. The method does not provide the true BER or FER estimate of the link with margin, or the required signalto-noise ratio (SNR) that would meet the BER or FER requirement in the statistical sense. In this paper, we perform in-depth analysis on the relationship between BER/FER requirement, operating SNR, and coding performance curve, in the case when the channel coherence time of link fluctuation is comparable or larger than the time duration of a codeword. We compute the "true" SNR design point that would meet the BER/FER requirement by taking into account the fluctuation of signal power and noise power at the receiver, and the shape of the coding performance curve. This analysis yields a number of valuable insights on the design choices of coding scheme and link margin for the reliable data delivery of a communication system - space and ground. We illustrate the aforementioned analysis using a number of standard NASA error-correcting codes.

Cheung, K.↗

More on exact state reconstruction in deterministic digital control systems

Presented is a special form of the Ideal State Reconstructor for deterministic digital control systems which is simpler to implement than the most general form. The Ideal State Reconstructor is so named because, if the plant parameters are known exactly, its output will exactly equal, not just approximate, the true state of the plant and accomplish this without any knowledge of the plant's initial state. Besides this, it adds no new states or eigenvalues to the system. Nor does it affect the plant equation for the system in any way; it affects the measurement equation only. It is characterized by the fact that discrete measurements are generated every T/N seconds and input into a multi-input/multi-output moving-average (MA) process. The output of this process is sampled every T seconds and utilized in reconstructing the state of the system.

Polites, Michael E.↗

Free Vibration of Uncertain Unsymmetrically Laminated Beams

Monte Carlo Simulation and Stochastic FEA are used to predict randomness in the free vibration response of thin unsymmetrically laminated beams. For the present study, it is assumed that randomness in the response is only caused by uncertainties in the ply orientations. The ply orientations may become random or uncertain during the manufacturing process. A new 16-dof beam element, based on the first-order shear deformation beam theory, is used to study the stochastic nature of the natural frequencies. Using variational principles, the element stiffness matrix and mass matrix are obtained through analytical integration. Using a random sequence a large data set is generated, containing possible random ply-orientations. This data is assumed to be symmetric. The stochastic-based finite element model for free vibrations predicts the relation between the randomness in fundamental natural frequencies and the randomness in ply-orientation. The sensitivity derivatives are calculated numerically through an exact formulation. The squared fundamental natural frequencies are expressed in terms of deterministic and probabilistic quantities, allowing to determine how sensitive they are to variations in ply angles. The predicted mean-valued fundamental natural frequency squared and the variance of the present model are in good agreement with Monte Carlo Simulation. Results, also, show that variations between plus or minus 5 degrees in ply-angles can affect free vibration response of unsymmetrically and symmetrically laminated beams.

Kapania, Rakesh K.↗

Statistical characterization of life drivers for a probabilistic design analysis

This paper discusses the issue of statistical characterization of life drivers for a probabilistic design analysis (PDA) approach to support the conventional deterministic structural design methods that are currently used. The probabilistic approach takes into consideration the modeling inadequacies and uncertainties in many design variables such as loads, environments, and material properties. The importance of the distributional assumption is motivated by illustrating an example where the results differ substantially due to the distribution selected. Different types of distributions are discussed and techniques for estimating the parameters are given. Given this information, procedures are outlined for selecting the appropriate distribution based on the particular type of variable (i.e., dimensional, performance) as well as the information that is available (i.e., test data, engineering analysis). Finally, techniques are given for generating random numbers from these selected distributions within the PDA process.

Fox, Eric P.↗

Sampling Technique for Robust Odorant Detection Based on MIT RealNose Data

This technique enhances the detection capability of the autonomous Real-Nose system from MIT to detect odorants and their concentrations in noisy and transient environments. The lowcost, portable system with low power consumption will operate at high speed and is suited for unmanned and remotely operated long-life applications. A deterministic mathematical model was developed to detect odorants and calculate their concentration in noisy environments. Real data from MIT's NanoNose was examined, from which a signal conditioning technique was proposed to enable robust odorant detection for the RealNose system. Its sensitivity can reach to sub-part-per-billion (sub-ppb). A Space Invariant Independent Component Analysis (SPICA) algorithm was developed to deal with non-linear mixing that is an over-complete case, and it is used as a preprocessing step to recover the original odorant sources for detection. This approach, combined with the Cascade Error Projection (CEP) Neural Network algorithm, was used to perform odorant identification. Signal conditioning is used to identify potential processing windows to enable robust detection for autonomous systems. So far, the software has been developed and evaluated with current data sets provided by the MIT team. However, continuous data streams are made available where even the occurrence of a new odorant is unannounced and needs to be noticed by the system autonomously before its unambiguous detection. The challenge for the software is to be able to separate the potential valid signal from the odorant and from the noisy transition region when the odorant is just introduced.

Duong, Tuan A.↗

Quantum-Classical Hybrid for Information Processing

Based upon quantum-inspired entanglement in quantum-classical hybrids, a simple algorithm for instantaneous transmissions of non-intentional messages (chosen at random) to remote distances is proposed. The idea is to implement instantaneous transmission of conditional information on remote distances via a quantum-classical hybrid that preserves superposition of random solutions, while allowing one to measure its state variables using classical methods. Such a hybrid system reinforces the advantages, and minimizes the limitations, of both quantum and classical characteristics. Consider n observers, and assume that each of them gets a copy of the system and runs it separately. Although they run identical systems, the outcomes of even synchronized runs may be different because the solutions of these systems are random. However, the global constrain must be satisfied. Therefore, if the observer #1 (the sender) made a measurement of the acceleration v(sub 1) at t =T, then the receiver, by measuring the corresponding acceleration v(sub 1) at t =T, may get a wrong value because the accelerations are random, and only their ratios are deterministic. Obviously, the transmission of this knowledge is instantaneous as soon as the measurements have been performed. In addition to that, the distance between the observers is irrelevant because the x-coordinate does not enter the governing equations. However, the Shannon information transmitted is zero. None of the senders can control the outcomes of their measurements because they are random. The senders cannot transmit intentional messages. Nevertheless, based on the transmitted knowledge, they can coordinate their actions based on conditional information. If the observer #1 knows his own measurements, the measurements of the others can be fully determined. It is important to emphasize that the origin of entanglement of all the observers is the joint probability density that couples their actions. There is no centralized source, or a sender of the signal, because each receiver can become a sender as well. An observer receives a signal by performing certain measurements synchronized with the measurements of the others. This means that the signal is uniformly and simultaneously distributed over the observers in a decentralized way. The signals transmit no intentional information that would favor one agent over another. All the sequence of signals received by different observers are not only statistically equivalent, but are also point-by-point identical. It is important to assume that each agent knows that the other agent simultaneously receives the identical signals. The sequences of the signals are true random, so that no agent could predict the next step with the probability different from those described by the density. Under these quite general assumptions, the entangled observers-agents can perform non-trivial tasks that include transmission of conditional information from one agent to another, simple paradigm of cooperation, etc. The problem of behavior of intelligent agents correlated by identical random messages in a decentralized way has its own significance: it simulates evolutionary behavior of biological and social systems correlated only via simultaneous sensoring sequences of unexpected events.

Zak, Michail↗

Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Project Verification, Validation, and Credibility (VVandC)

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Project supports end user requests by employing the Integrated Medical Evidence Database (iMED) and IMM tools as well as subject matter expertise within the Project. The iMED houses data used by the IMM. The IMM is designed to forecast relative changes for a specified set of crew health and mission success risk metrics by using a probabilistic model based on historical data, cohort data, and subject matter expert opinion. A stochastic approach is taken because deterministic results would not appropriately reflect the uncertainty in the IMM inputs. Once the IMM was conceptualized, a plan was needed to rigorously assess input information, framework and code, and output results of the IMM, and ensure that end user requests and requirements were considered during all stages of model development and implementation, as well as lay the foundation for external review and application. METHODS: In 2008, the Project team developed a comprehensive verification and validation (VV) plan, which specified internal and external review criteria encompassing 1) verification of data and IMM structure to ensure proper implementation of the IMM, 2) several validation techniques to confirm that the simulation capability of the IMM appropriately represents occurrences and consequences of medical conditions during space missions, and 3) credibility processes to develop user confidence in the information derived from the IMM. When the NASA-STD-7009 (7009) [1] was published, the Project team updated their verification, validation, and credibility (VVC) project plan to meet 7009 requirements and include 7009 tools in reporting VVC status of the IMM. Construction of these tools included meeting documentation and evidence requirements sufficient to meet external review success criteria. RESULTS: IMM Project VVC updates are compiled recurrently and include updates to the 7009 Compliance and Credibility matrices. Reporting tools have evolved over the lifetime of the IMM Project to better communicate VVC status. This has included refining original 7009 methodology with augmentation from the HRP NASA-STD-7009 Guidance Document working group and the NASA-HDBK-7009 [2]. End user requests and requirements are being satisfied as evidenced by ISS Program acceptance of IMM risk forecasts, transition to an operational model and simulation tool, and completion of service requests from a broad end user consortium including operations, science and technology planning, and exploration planning. IMM v4.0 is slated for operational release in the FY015 and current VVC assessments illustrate the expected VVC status prior to the completion of customer lead external review efforts. CONCLUSIONS: The VVC approach established by the IMM Project of incorporating Project-specific recommended practices and guidelines for implementing the 7009 requirements is comprehensive and includes the involvement of end users at every stage in IMM evolution. Methods and techniques used to quantify the VVC status of the IMM Project represented a critical communication tool in providing clear and concise suitability assessments to IMM customers. These processes have not only received approval from the local NASA community but have also garnered recognition by other federal agencies seeking to develop similar guidelines in the medical modeling community.

Walton, M.↗

NESSUS (Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress)/EXPERT: Bridging the gap between artificial intelligence and FORTRAN

The development of a probabilistic structural analysis methodology (PSAM) is described. In the near-term, the methodology will be applied to designing critical components of the next generation space shuttle main engine. In the long-term, PSAM will be applied very broadly, providing designers with a new technology for more effective design of structures whose character and performance are significantly affected by random variables. The software under development to implement the ideas developed in PSAM resembles, in many ways, conventional deterministic structural analysis code. However, several additional capabilities regarding the probabilistic analysis makes the input data requirements and the resulting output even more complex. As a result, an intelligent front- and back-end to the code is being developed to assist the design engineer in providing the input data in a correct and appropriate manner. The type of knowledge that this entails is, in general, heuristically-based, allowing the fairly well-understood technology of production rules to apply with little difficulty. However, the PSAM code, called NESSUS, is written in FORTRAN-77 and runs on a DEC VAX. Thus, the associated expert system, called NESSUS/EXPERT, must run on a DEC VAX as well, and integrate effectively and efficiently with the existing FORTRAN code. This paper discusses the process undergone to select a suitable tool, identify an appropriate division between the functions that should be performed in FORTRAN and those that should be performed by production rules, and how integration of the conventional and AI technologies was achieved.

Fink, Pamela K.↗

Framework for Estimating Performance and Associated Uncertainty for Modified Aircraft Configurations

Flight testing has been the historical standard for determining aircraft airworthiness - however, increases in the cost of flight testing and the accuracy of inexpensive CFD promote certification by analysis to reduce or replace flight testing. A framework is introduced to predict the performance in the special case of a modification to an existing, previously certified aircraft. This framework uses a combination of existing flight test or high fidelity data of the original aircraft as well as lower fidelity data of the original and modified configurations. Two methods are presented which estimate the model form uncertainty of the modified configuration, which is then used to conduct non-deterministic simulations. The framework is applied to an example aircraft system with simulated flight test data to demonstrate the ability to predict the performance and associated uncertainty of modified aircraft configurations. However, it is important that the models and methods used are applicable and accurate throughout the intended use domain. The factors and limitations of the framework are explored to determine the range of applicability of the framework. The effects of these factors on the performance and uncertainty results are demonstrated using the example aircraft system. The framework is then applied to NASA’s X-57 Maxwell and each of its modifications. The estimated performance and associated uncertainties are then compared to the airworthiness criteria to evaluate the potential of the framework as a component to the certification by analysis process.

Uncertainty Quantification↗

Rolling Horizon with K-Position Search Method for Strategic Deconfliction of Package Delivery UAS

This research focuses on the strategic deconfliction of unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) in an urban package delivery environment with two depots and multiple drop-off locations. Since the formulated mixed-integer nonlinear programming (MINLP) problem is non-deterministic polynomial-time (NP) hard, a heuristic algorithm called "rolling horizon with k-position search (KPS)" is used to compute the departure sequence and scheduled time of departure (STD) of each UAS at a depot, considering temporal constraints at en-route crossing waypoints and depots for strategic deconfliction. The simulation studies show that an increase in the value of k (local neighborhood search) in the KPS reduces the average ground delay at the cost of an increase in the computation time for a given number of UAS, size of the rolling horizon window, and number of depots involved in the local neighborhood search. The studies also show that for a given rolling horizon window, the computation time increases exponentially with an increase in the total number of UAS flights when serial processing the local neighborhood search of KPS (with k > 1) and drops by an order of magnitude upon performing the local neighborhood search of KPS using parallel processing instead of serial processing. The computation time drops with the reduction in air traffic complexity of a scenario for a given number of flights, k (local neighborhood search), and rolling horizon window.

UTM↗

Boundary-layer receptivity due to distributed surface imperfections of a deterministic or random nature

Acoustic receptivity of a Blasius boundary layer in the presence of distributed surface irregularities is investigated analytically. It is shown that, out of the entire spatial spectrum of the surface irregularities, only a small band of Fourier components can lead to an efficient conversion of the acoustic input at any given frequency to an unstable eigenmode of the boundary layer flow. The location, and width, of this most receptive band of wavenumbers corresponds to a relative detuning of O(R sub l.b.(exp -3/8)) with respect to the lower-neutral instability wavenumber at the frequency under consideration, R sub l.b. being the Reynolds number based on a typical boundary-layer thickness at the lower branch of the neutral stability curve. Surface imperfections in the form of discrete mode waviness in this range of wavenumbers lead to initial instability amplitudes which are O(R sub l.b.(exp 3/8)) larger than those caused by a single, isolated roughness element. In contrast, irregularities with a continuous spatial spectrum produce much smaller instability amplitudes, even compared to the isolated case, since the increase due to the resonant nature of the response is more than that compensated for by the asymptotically small band-width of the receptivity process. Analytical expressions for the maximum possible instability amplitudes, as well as their expectation for an ensemble of statistically irregular surfaces with random phase distributions, are also presented.

Choudhari, Meelan↗

Comparison of Multivariate Time Series Prediction Techniques for Emulating Noah-LSM Soil Moisture Outputs

Land surface models are crucial tools for many earth science applications including numerical weather prediction, water resource and crop monitoring, and climatological analysis. Given a set of atmospheric forcings, seasonal data, and static parameters, models like Noah-LSM solve for land surface quantities including skin temperature, sensible heat flux, and soil moisture. While these calculations are theoretically robust, they are often computationally expensive. Since artificial neural networks (ANNs) are universal function approximators, they can learn to emulate the output of a deterministic numerical model given a time series of input forcings, with the learned ANN having substantially shorter execution time. The ANN could efficiently parameterize other models, generate ensembles, and provide first-guess inputs for retrievals. As such, with the goal of developing a model that efficiently mimics the output of Noah-LSM given NLDAS2 forcings on a region covering much of the central US, we examine and compare several neural network architectures for the multi-horizon multivariate time series forecasting problem. Recent literature includes a diverse set of approaches including autoregressive architectures like LSTM and GRU, parametric and non-parametric statistical predictors (ForecastNet and MQRNN), self-attention (LSTM-attention-LSTM), and temporal convovlution (DeepTCN). We implement several of these models for the Noah-LSM prediction task, highlighting the features and challenges for each and providing practical insight on the training process.

Mitchell Dodson↗