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At least 253 records · Page 14

Quantifying the Impact of Systems Interdependencies in Space Systems Architectures

Due to the high number of systems in a space mission architecture and to their complex interactions, identifying risk and critical operational dependencies is not obvious. Traditional systems engineering methodology and risk assessment does not capture the impact of interactions between systems nor the cascading effects of disruptions. Based on these considerations, the Systems Operational Dependency Analysis methodology was developed for use by systems analysts and decision makers. This methodology utilizes a parametric model of interdependencies between systems to quantify the direct and indirect impact of system disruptions on other systems, as well as identify root causes. The results are effective at providing decision support for prioritizing technology investment based on risk reduction associated with potential system disruptions. Expanding on research presented at IAC 2018 and based on a collaboration with NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, this paper applies the Systems Operational Dependency Analysis methodology to NASA Lunar Gateway in collaboration with NASA’s lunar exploration plans. The paper presents a hierarchical representation of the interdependencies between a Gateway habitat’s systems and subsystems, demonstrates quantification of the impact of disruption, and assesses the criticality of the constituent systems and subsystems.

Guariniello, Cesare↗

Space Mission Options for Reconnaissance and Mitigation of Asteroid 2024 YR4

Near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR 4 was discovered on 2024-12-27 and its probability of Earth impact in December 2032 peaked at about 3% on 2025-02-18. Additional observations ruled out Earth impact by 2025-02-23. However, the probability of lunar impact in December 2032 then rose, reaching about 4% by the end of the apparition in May 2025. James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) observations on 2025-03-26 estimated the asteroid's diameter at 60 +/- 7 m. Studies of 2024 YR 4 's potential lunar impact effects suggest lunar ejecta could increase micrometeoroid debris flux in low Earth orbit up to 1000 times above background levels over just a few days, possibly threatening astronauts and spacecraft. In this work, we present options for space missions to 2024 YR 4 that could be utilized if lunar impact is confirmed. We cover flyby & rendezvous reconnaissance, deflection, and robust disruption of the asteroid. We examine both rapid-response and delayed launch options through 2032. We evaluate chemical and solar electric propulsion, various launch vehicles, optimized deep space maneuvers, and gravity assists. Re-tasking extant spacecraft and using built spacecraft not yet launched are also considered. The best reconnaissance mission options launch in late 2028, leaving only approximately three years for development at the time of this writing in August 2025. Deflection missions were assessed and appear impractical. However, kinetic robust disruption missions are available with launches between April 2030 and April 2032. Nuclear robust disruption missions are also available with launches between late 2029 and late 2031. Finally, even if lunar impact is ruled out there is significant potential utility in deploying a reconnaissance mission to characterize the asteroid.

Asteroid Disruption↗

Motor activity under weightless conditions

The material presented on the motor activity under weightless conditions (brief and long) leads to the conclusion that it is not significantly disrupted, if those being examined are secured at the workplaces. Some discoordination of movement, moderately expressed disruption of the precision of reproduction of assigned muscular forces, etc., were observed. Motor disorders decrease significantly in proportion to the length of stay under weightless conditions. This apparently takes place, as a consequence of formation of a new functional system, adequate to the conditions of weightlessness. Tests on intact and labyrinthectomized animals have demonstrated that signaling from the inner ear receptors is superfluous in weightlessness, since it promotes the onset of disruptions in the combined work of the position analyzers.

Kasyan, I. I.↗

On the origin of striae in cometary dust tails

It has been argued by Sekanina that the so-called striae or pseudo-synchronic bands observed in the dust tails of several comets are a consequence of the sudden disruption of elongated or chainlike parent grains in the tail. The present paper offers a specific mechanism for this disruption process, that is, electrostatic disruption following sudden charging to high electrostatic potentials. Assuming the grains to be prolate spheroids, it is shown that they can attain potentials in the range -60 V to -300 V when subject to energetic electron beams (1-10 keV). The energy source for these electrons is the interaction of the solar wind with the cometary ionosphere producing currents and associated electrostatic double layers.

Hill, J. R.↗

Tidal stability of gas clouds in the Large Magellanic Cloud and M101

The tidal stability of the giant atomic gas clouds in the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) and in M101 is examined. The giant atomic clouds in the Large Magellanic Cloud are found to be unstable against tidal disruption by the gravity of the LMC, but the clouds in M101 are in approximate tidal balance. It is unlikely that there is sufficient unobserved molecular gas to stabilize the LMC clouds, although they may have substantial molecular cores which are tidally stable. The time scale for tidal disruption of the LMC clouds is of the order of 20-30 million years. Because most of the clouds have associated H II regions, the onset of star formation in these clouds must occur rapidly. In order to balance the loss due to tidal disruption, the clouds would have to be forming at a rate of approximately 0.09 solar masses/year per sq kpc, a value comparable to that derived for the Milky Way.

Blitz, L.↗

Globular cluster origin of X-ray bursters

X-ray bursters and galactic bulge X-ray sources, or the most luminous X-ray sources in the Galaxy, are reasonably well constrained in their basic nature but not in their origin. It is suggested they may all have been produced by tidal capture in high density cores of globular clusters, which have now largely been disrupted by tidal stripping and shocking in the galactic plane. General arguments are presented for cluster disruption by the possible ring of giant molecular clouds in the Galaxy. Tests of the cluster disruption hypothesis are in progress and preliminary results are summarized here. The G-K star 'companions' previously noted for at least four bursters have spectra (in the two cases observed) consistent with metal-rich cluster giants. Several possibilities are discussed, including the formation of hierarchical triples in the dissolving cluster or in the galactic plane.

Grindlay, J. E.↗

Multipoint observations of a small substorm

Results are presented of multipoint observations of a small substorm which occurred at about 0110 UT on April 25, 1985, carried out by AMPTE CCE, AMPTE IRM, DMSP F6, and DMSP F7, as well as by ground auroral stations and midlatitude stations. These data yield information on the latitudinal extent of the polar cap and provide visual identification of substorm aurorae, magnetic perturbations produced directly beneath aurorae, and the situ magnetic field. In addition, they provide magnetic-particle observations of the disruption of the cross-tail current sheet and observations concerning the spatial expansion of the current disruption region. Evidence is presented that the current sheet disruption observed by CCE in the neutral sheet was located on field lines which mapped to the westward traveling surge observed directly overhead of the ground station at Syowa.

Lopez, R. E.↗

The formation of antipodal-impact terrains on Mars

The regions antipodal to Mars' three largest impact basins, Hellas, Isidis, and Argyre, were assessed for evidence of impact induced seismically disrupted terrains. Photogeology and preliminary computer modeling using the Simplified Arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian computer program suggest such terrain could have been formed by the Hellas and Isidis impacts. Previously, the only assessment of potential surface disruptions on Mars antipodal to large impacts was by Peterson (1978). Herein, the results give credence to Peterson's assertions. For Hellas, the computer model clearly suggests that antipodal pressures were probably strong enough to have fractured the crust and disrupted the surface, and may account for aspects of volcanism at Alba Patera. It is suggested that the Hellas impact produced sufficient focused energy at its antipode to produce deep fracture in the Martian crust centered below the current caldera for Alba Petera. With the generation and evolution of magma in the Tharsis area, the fracture system provided a ready conduit for early stage eruptions of Martians lavas derived from deep in the crust and/or upper mantle, perhaps of komatiitic composition.

Williams, D. A.↗

Tidal capture of stars by a massive black hole

The processes leading to tidal capture of stars by a massive black hole and the consequences of these processes in a dense stellar cluster are discussed in detail. When the amplitude of a tide and the subsequent oscillations are sufficiently large, the energy deposited in a star after periastron passage and formation of a bound orbit cannot be estimated directly using the linear theory of oscillations of a spherical star, but rather numerical estimates must be used. The evolution of a star after tidal capture is discussed. The maximum ratio R of the cross-section for tidal capture to that for tidal disruption is about 3 for real systems. For the case of a stellar system with an empty capture loss cone, even in the case when the impact parameter for tidal capture only slightly exceeds the impact parameter for direct tidal disruption, tidal capture would be much more important than tidal disruption.

Novikov, I. D.↗

Alertness management in two-person long-haul flight operations

Long-haul flight operations involve cumulative sleep loss, circadian disruption, and extended and irregular duty schedules. These factors reduce pilot alertness and performance on the flightdeck. Conceptually and operationally, alertness management in flight operations can be divided into preventive strategies and operational countermeasures. Preventive strategies are utilized prior to a duty period to mitigate or reduce the effects of sleep loss, circadian disruption and fatigue during subsequent flight operations. Operational countermeasures are used during operations as acute techniques for maintaining performance and alertness. Results from previous NASA Ames field studies document the sleep loss and circadian disruption in three-person long-haul flying and illustrate the application of preventive strategies and operational countermeasures. One strategy that can be used in both a preventive and operational manner is strategic napping. The application and effectiveness of strategic napping in long-haul operations will be discussed. Finally, long-haul flying in two-person highly automated aircraft capable of extended range operations will create new challenges to maintaining pilot alertness and performance. Alertness management issues in this flight environment will be explored.

Rosekind, M. R.↗

Velocity distributions among colliding asteroids

The probability distribution for impact velocities between two given asteroids is wide, non-Gaussian, and often contains spikes according to our new method of analysis in which each possible orbital geometry for collision is weighted according to its probability. An average value would give a good representation only if the distribution were smooth and narrow. Therefore, the complete velocity distribution we obtain for various asteroid populations differs significantly from published histograms of average velocities. For all pairs among the 682 asteroids in the main-belt with D greater than 50 km, we find that our computed velocity distribution is much wider than previously computed histograms of average velocities. In this case, the most probable impact velocity is approximately 4.4 km/sec, compared with the mean impact velocity of 5.3 km/sec. For cases of a single asteroid (e.g., Gaspra or Ida) relative to an impacting population, the distribution we find yields lower velocities than previously reported by others. The width of these velocity distributions implies that mean impact velocities must be used with caution when calculating asteroid collisional lifetimes or crater-size distributions. Since the most probable impact velocities are lower than the mean, disruption events may occur less frequently than previously estimated. However, this disruption rate may be balanced somewhat by an apparent increase in the frequency of high-velocity impacts between asteroids. These results have implications for issues such as asteroidal disruption rates, the amount/type of impact ejecta available for meteoritical delivery to the Earth, and the geology and evolution of specific asteroids like Gaspra.

Bottke, William F., Jr.↗

Interactions between nested sunspots. 1: The formation and breakup of a delta-type sunspot

We investigate a nest of sunspots in which three ordinary bipolar pairs of sunspots are aligned collinearly. The usual spreading action of the growing regions brings two spots of leading polarity together (p-p collision) and forces the leading and trailing spots of the two interior regions to overlap inot a single penumbra (p-f collision), thus forming a delta-spot. We examine digitally processed images from the Ottawa River Solar Observatory of two related events inside the delta-spot 5 days after the p-f collision begins: the violent disruption of the f-umbra, and the formation in less than a day of an hydrogen-alpha filament. The evolutionary changes in shape, area, relative motions, and brightness that we measure for each spot in the elongated nest are more compatible with Parker's (1979a) hypothesis of a sunspot as a cluster of flux tubes held together by downdrafts than with the notion of a sunspot as a monolithic plug of magnetic flux. From chromospheric developments over the delta-spot, we show that a shearing motion along a polarity inversion is more effective than convergence for creating a chromospheric filament. We invoke the release of an instability, triggered by a sequence of processes lasting 1 day or more, to explain the disruption of the f-umbra in this delta-spot. We show that the sequence is initiated when the colliding p-f umbrae reach a critical separation around 3200 +/- 200 km. We present a descriptive model in which the reconnected magnetic fields block vertical transport of convective heat flux just beneath the photosphere. We observe the formation of an unusual type of penumbra adjacent to the f-polarity portion of this delta-spot just before its disruption. A tangential penumbral band grows out of disordered matter connected to the f-umbra. We present this as evidence for the extrusion of umbral magnetic flux by thermal plumes rising through a loosely bound umbra.

Gaizauskas, V.↗

Relativistic tidal interaction of a white dwarf with a massive black hole

We compute encounters of a realistic white dwarf model with a massive black hole in the regime where relativistic effects are important, using a three-dimensional, finite-difference, Eulerian, piecewise parabolic method (PPM) hydrodynamical code. Both disruptive and nondisruptive encounters are considered. We identify and discuss relativistic effects important for the problem: relativistic shift of the pericenter distance, time delay, relativistic precession, and the tensorial structure of the tidal forces. In the nondisruptive case, stripping of matter takes place. In the surface layers of the surviving core, complicated hydrodynamical phenomena are revealed. In both disruptive and nondispruptive encounters, material flows out in the form of two thin, S-shaped, supersonic jets. Our results provide realistic initial conditions for the subsequent investigation of the dynamics of the debris in the field of the black hole. We evaluate the critical conditions for complete disruption of the white dwarf, and compare our results with the corresponding results for nonrelativistic encounters.

Frolov, V. P.↗

Assessment of antipodal-impact terrains on Mars

The regions anitpodal to Mars' three largest impact basins, Hellas, Isidis, and Argyre, were assessed for evidence of impact-induced disrupted terrains. Photogeology and computer modeling using the Simplified Arbitrary Lagrangian Eulerian (SALE) finite element code suggest that such terrains could have been found by the Hellas impact. Maximum antipodal pressures are 1100 MPa for Hellas, 520 MPa for Isidis, and 150 MPa for Argyre. The results suggest that if antipodal fracturing were associated with later volcanism, then Alba Patera may be related to the Hellas event, as proposed by Peterson (1978). Alba Patera is a unique volcano in the solar system, being a shield volcano which emitted large volume lava flows. This volcanism could be the result of the focusing of seismic energy which created a fractured region that served as a volcanic conduit for the future release of large volumes of magma. No disrupted terrain features are observed antipodal to the Isidis or Argyre basins, although some of the old fractures in Noctis Labyrinthus could have originated in response to the Isidis impact, and later have been reactivated by the Tharsis tectonics assumed to have produced Noctis. If the lower calculated antipodal pressures for Argyre were capable of producing disrupted terrains, then the terrains have been covered subsequently by volcanic or aeolian material, or modified beyond recognition.

Williams, David A.↗

A duty cycle hypothesis for the central engines of LINERs

A recent ultraviolet snaphsot imaging survey of the nuclei of nearby galaxies detected a compact nuclear ultraviolet source in only five of the 26 LINERs (low-ionization nuclear emission-line regions) included in the observed sample. Motivated by this observational result, we examine the possibility that all LINERs are powered by photoionization from a nuclear source, which is, however, active only for 20% of the time. We show that decay times of low-ionization species can be of the order of one to a few centuries, and we demonstrate through time-dependent photoionization calculations that if the nuclear ionizing source is active for only a fraction of the time, this would not be readily noticeable in the emission-line spectrum. We suggest that the activity cycle is related to episodic accretion events which are associated with the tidal disruption of stars by a central black hole. The time interval between tidal disruptions is of the same order as the emission-line decay time, with the accretion episode following each disruption lasting a few decades. These estimates appear to support the duty cycle hypothesis. Some observational consequences of the proposed scenario are also discussed.

Eracleous, Michael↗

Radio jet propagation and wide-angle tailed radio sources in merging galaxy cluster environments

The intracluster medium (ICM) within merging clusters of galaxies is likely to be in a violent or turbulent dynamical state which may have a significant effect on the evolution of cluster radio sources. We present results from a recent gas + N-body simulation of a cluster merger, suggesting that mergers can result in long-lived, supersonic bulk flows, as well as shocks, within a few hundred kiloparsecs of the core of the dominant cluster. These results have motivated our new two-dimensional and three-dimensional simulations of jet propagation in such environments. The first set of simulations models the ISM/ICM transition as a contact discontinuity with a strong velocity shear. A supersonic (M(sub j) = 6) jet crossing this discontinuity into an ICM with a transverse, supersonic wind bends continuously, becomes 'naked' on the upwind side, and forms a distended cocoon on the downwind side. In the case of a mildly supersonic jet (M(sub j) = 3), however, a shock is driven into the ISM and ISM material is pulled along with the jet into the ICM. Instabilities excited at the ISM/ICM interface result in the jet repeatedly pinching off and reestablishing itself in a series of 'disconnection events.' The second set of simulations deals with a jet encountering a shock in the merging cluster environment. A series of relatively high-resolution two-dimensional calculations is used to confirm earlier analysis predicting that the jet will not disrupt when the jet Mach number is greater than the shock Mach number. A jet which survives the encounter with the shock will decrease in radius and disrupt shortly thereafter as a result of the growth of Kelvin-Helmholtz instabilities. We also find, in disagreement with predictions, that the jet flaring angle decreases with increasing jet density. Finally, a three-dimensional simulation of a jet crossing an oblique shock gives rise to a morphology which resembles a wide-angle tailed radio source with the jet flaring at the shock and disrupting to form a long, turbulent tail which is dragged downstream by the preshock wind.

Loken, Chris↗

Determination of Coronal Magnetic Fields from Vector Magnetograms

During the course of the present contract we developed an 'evolutionary technique' for the determination of force-free coronal magnetic fields from vector magnetograph observations. The method can successfully generate nonlinear force- free fields (with non-constant-a) that match vector magnetograms. We demonstrated that it is possible to determine coronal magnetic fields from photospheric measurements, and we applied it to vector magnetograms of active regions. We have also studied theoretical models of coronal fields that lead to disruptions. Specifically, we have demonstrated that the determination of force-free fields from exact boundary data is a well-posed mathematical problem, by verifying that the computed coronal field agrees with an analytic force-free field when boundary data for the analytic field are used; demonstrated that it is possible to determine active-region coronal magnetic fields from photospheric measurements, by computing the coronal field above active region 5747 on 20 October 1989, AR6919 on 15 November 1991, and AR7260 on 18 August 1992, from data taken with the Stokes Polarimeter at Mees Solar Observatory, University of Hawaii; started to analyze active region 7201 on 19 June 1992 using measurements made with the Advanced Stokes Polarimeter at NSO/Sac Peak; investigated the effects of imperfections in the photospheric data on the computed coronal magnetic field; documented the coronal field structure of AR5747 and compared it to the morphology of footpoint emission in a flare, showing that the 'high- pressure' H-alpha footpoints are connected by coronal field lines; shown that the variation of magnetic field strength along current-carrying field lines is significantly different from the variation in a potential field, and that the resulting near-constant area of elementary flux tubes is consistent with observations; begun to develop realistic models of coronal fields which can be used to study flare trigger mechanisms; demonstrated that magnetic nonequilibrium can disrupt sheared coronal arcades, and that helmet streamers can disrupt, leading to coronal mass ejections. Our model has significantly extended the realism with which the coronal magnetic field can be inferred from actual observations. In a subsequent contract awarded by NASA, we have continued to apply and improve the evolutionary technique, to study the physical properties of active regions, and to develop theoretical models of magnetic fields.

Mikic, Zoran↗

A Self-Consistent Numerical Magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) Model of Helmet Streamer and Flux-Rope Interactions: Initiation and Propagation of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs)

We present results for an investigation of the interaction of a helmet streamer arcade and a helical flux-rope emerging from the sub-photosphere. These results are obtained by using a three-dimensional axisymmetric, time-dependent ideal magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model. Because of the physical nature of the flux-rope, we investigate two types of flux-ropes; (1) high density flux-rope (i.e. flux-rope without cavity), and (2) low density flux rope (i.e. flux-rope with cavity). When the streamer is disrupted by the flux-rope, it will evolve into a configuration resembling the typical observed loop-like Coronal Mass Ejection (CMES) for both cases. The streamer-flux rope system with cavity is easier to be disrupted and the propagation speed of the CME is faster than the streamer-flux rope system without cavity. Our results demonstrate that magnetic buoyancy force plays an important role in disrupting the streamer.

Wu, S. T.↗