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At least 253 records · Page 14

Strain Rate Dependent Modeling of Polymer Matrix Composites

A research program is in progress to develop strain rate dependent deformation and failure models for the analysis of polymer matrix composites subject to high strain rate impact loads. Strain rate dependent inelastic constitutive equations have been developed to model the polymer matrix, and have been incorporated into a micromechanics approach to analyze polymer matrix composites. The Hashin failure criterion has been implemented within the micromechanics results to predict ply failure strengths. The deformation model has been implemented within LS-DYNA, a commercially available transient dynamic finite element code. The deformation response and ply failure stresses for the representative polymer matrix composite AS4/PEEK have been predicted for a variety of fiber orientations and strain rates. The predicted results compare favorably to experimentally obtained values.

Goldberg, Robert K.↗

Interfacial Atomistic Mechanisms of Lithium Metal Stripping and Plating in Solid–State Batteries

All-solid-state batteries based on a Li metal anode represent a promising next-generation energy storage system, but are currently limited by low current density and short cycle life. Further research to improve the Li metal anode is impeded by the lack of understanding in its failure mechanisms at lithium–solid interfaces, in particular, the fundamental atomistic processes responsible for interface failure. Here, using large-scale molecular dynamics simulations, the first atomistic modeling study of lithium stripping and plating on a solid electrolyte is performed by explicitly considering key fundamental atomistic processes and interface atomistic structures. In the simulations, the interface failure initiated with the formation of nano-sized pores, and how interface structures, lithium diffusion, adhesion energy, and applied pressure affect interface failure during Li cycling are observed. By systematically varying the parameters of solid-state lithium cells in the simulations, the parameter space of applied pressures and interfacial adhesion energies that inhibit interface failure during cycling are mapped to guide selection of solid-state cells. Furthermore, this study establishes the atomistic modeling for Li stripping and plating, and predicts optimal solid interfaces and new strategies for the future research and development of solid-state Li-metal batteries.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Component Characterization of an eVTOL Reference Model for Crashworthiness Studies

Researchers at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Langley Research Center (LaRC) have conducted a series of structural component and seat level tests to improve finite element model (FEM) characterization of a representative vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) test article developed by NASA. A full-scale dynamic test was conducted on the representative eVTOL test article in November of 2022. The test article represented a high wing, six passenger eVTOL design concept and is referred to as the lift plus cruise (LPC) test article. The full-scale test identified limitations in the analytical models used to predict aircraft structural response, in particular the composite material models did not effectively capture brittle failure of the structure which were measured during dynamic loading. To better understand the mechanism behind the composite material failure mechanisms observed and to improve the FEM, intact sample specimens of the composite airframe structure were recovered from the test article post-test and used in material characterization testing. In addition, the seat configurations used in the LPC test article were further studied using isolated seat and anthropomorphic test device (ATD) drop tower testing. Dynamic compression tests and three-point bend tests, conducted at varied impact speeds, were performed on the recovered frame section specimens. Additional testing was conducted to characterize the material properties of the forming foam, which remained in the frames after fabrication. These tests were used to improve characterization of the damage and failure parameters of the composite material model used in the FE model of the LPC test article. Seat level tests were conducted on the seats used in the LPC test article using acceleration pulses inclusive of current general aviation and rotorcraft certification load levels as well as conditions representative of those measured at the seat base during the LPC test. The structural material models and seat environment models of the LPC test article FEM were calibrated using the generated component test data. The updates made to these models were then integrated into the LPC FEM and simulated in the full-scale test condition. Results demonstrated the effectiveness of component testing to improve predictive capability of composite aerospace structural models within the crash and dynamic loading environments. Demonstration of the LPC FEM response across an accumulation of coupon, component, seat environment, and full-scale test levels provides confidence in the predictive capability of this model for future use in the study of occupant safety within eVTOL relevant crash environments.

Craswhorthiness↗

Component Characterization of an eVTOL Reference Model for Crashworthiness Studies

Researchers at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Langley Research Center (LaRC) have conducted a series of structural component and seat level tests to improve finite element model (FEM) characterization of a representative vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) test article developed by NASA. A full-scale dynamic test was conducted on the representative eVTOL test article in November of 2022. The test article represented a high wing, six passenger eVTOL design concept and is referred to as the lift plus cruise (LPC) test article. The full-scale test identified limitations in the analytical models used to predict aircraft structural response, in particular the composite material models did not effectively capture brittle failure of the structure which were measured during dynamic loading. To better understand the mechanism behind the composite material failure mechanisms observed and to improve the FEM, intact sample specimens of the composite airframe structure were recovered from the test article post-test and used in material characterization testing. In addition, the seat configurations used in the LPC test article were further studied using isolated seat and anthropomorphic test device (ATD) drop tower testing. Dynamic compression tests and three-point bend tests, conducted at varied impact speeds, were performed on the recovered frame section specimens. Additional testing was conducted to characterize the material properties of the forming foam, which remained in the frames after fabrication. These tests were used to improve characterization of the damage and failure parameters of the composite material model used in the FE model of the LPC test article. Seat level tests were conducted on the seats used in the LPC test article using acceleration pulses inclusive of current general aviation and rotorcraft certification load levels as well as conditions representative of those measured at the seat base during the LPC test. The structural material models and seat environment models of the LPC test article FEM were calibrated using the generated component test data. The updates made to these models were then integrated into the LPC FEM and simulated in the full-scale test condition. Results demonstrated the effectiveness of component testing to improve predictive capability of composite aerospace structural models within the crash and dynamic loading environments. Demonstration of the LPC FEM response across an accumulation of coupon, component, seat environment, and full-scale test levels provides confidence in the predictive capability of this model for future use in the study of occupant safety within eVTOL relevant crash environments.

Craswhorthiness↗

Computational Analyses in Support of Sub-scale Diffuser Testing for the A-3 Facility: Steady Predictions - Part 1

Simulation technology can play an important role in rocket engine test facility design and development by assessing risks, providing analysis of dynamic pressure and thermal loads, identifying failure modes and predicting anomalous behavior of critical systems. Advanced numerical tools assume greater significance in supporting testing and design of high altitude testing facilities and plume induced testing environments of high thrust engines because of the greater inter-dependence and synergy in the functioning of the different sub-systems. This is especially true for facilities such as the proposed A-3 facility at NASA SSC because of a challenging operating envelope linked to variable throttle conditions at relatively low chamber pressures. Facility designs in this case will require a complex network of diffuser ducts, steam ejector trains, fast operating valves, cooling water systems and flow diverters that need to be characterized for steady state performance. In this paper, we will demonstrate with the use of CFD analyses s advanced capability to evaluate supersonic diffuser and steam ejector performance in a sub-scale A-3 facility at NASA Stennis Space Center (SSC) where extensive testing was performed. Furthermore, the focus in this paper relates to modeling of critical sub-systems and components used in facilities such as the A-3 facility. The work here will address deficiencies in empirical models and current CFD analyses that are used for design of supersonic diffusers/turning vanes/ejectors as well as analyses for confined plumes and venting processes. The primary areas that will be addressed are: (1) supersonic diffuser performance including analyses of thermal loads (2) accurate shock capturing in the diffuser duct; (3) effect of turning duct on the performance of the facility (4) prediction of mass flow rates and performance classification for steam ejectors (5) comparisons with test data from sub-scale diffuser testing and assessment of confidence levels in CFD based flowpath modeling of the facility. The analyses tools used here expand on the multi-element unstructured CFD which has been tailored and validated for impingement dynamics of dry plumes, complex valve/feed systems, and high pressure propellant delivery systems used in engine and component test stands at NASA SSC. The analyses performed in the evaluation of the sub-scale diffuser facility explored several important factors that influence modeling and understanding of facility operation such as (a) importance of modeling the facility with Real Gas approximation, (b) approximating the cluster of steam ejector nozzles as a single annular nozzle, (c) existence of mixed subsonic/supersonic flow downstream of the turning duct, and (d) inadequacy of two-equation turbulence models in predicting the correct pressurization in the turning duct and expansion of the second stage steam ejectors. The procedure used for modeling the facility was as follows: (i) The engine, test cell and first stage ejectors were simulated with an axisymmetric approximation (ii) the turning duct, second stage ejectors and the piping downstream of the second stage ejectors were analyzed with a three-dimensional simulation utilizing a half-plane symmetry approximation. The solution i.e. primitive variables such as pressure, velocity components, temperature and turbulence quantities were passed from the first computational domain and specified as a supersonic boundary condition for the second simulation. (iii) The third domain comprised of the exit diffuser and the region in the vicinity of the facility (primary included to get the correct shock structure at the exit of the facility and entrainment characteristics). The first set of simulations comprising the engine, test cell and first stage ejectors was carried out both as a turbulent real gas calculation as well as a turbulent perfect gas calculation. A comparison for the two cases (Real Turbulent and Perfect gas turbulent) of the Ma Number distribution and temperature distributions are shown in Figures 1 and 2 respectively. The Mach Number distribution shows small yet distinct differences between the two cases such as locations of shocks/shock reflections and a slightly different impingement point on the wall of the diffuser from the expansion at the exit of the nozzle. Similarly the temperature distribution indicates different flow recirculation patterns in the test cell. Both cases capture all the essential flow phenomena such as the shock-boundary layer interaction, plume expansion, expansion of the first stage ejectors, mixing between the engine plume and the first stage ejector flow and pressurization due to the first stage ejectors. The final paper will discuss thermal loads on the walls of the diffuser and cooling mechanisms investigated.

Allgood, Daniel C.↗

Computational Analyses in Support of Sub-scale Diffuser Testing for the A-3 Facility: Steady Predictions - Part 1

Simulation technology can play an important role in rocket engine test facility design and development by assessing risks, providing analysis of dynamic pressure and thermal loads, identifying failure modes and predicting anomalous behavior of critical systems. Advanced numerical tools assume greater significance in supporting testing and design of high altitude testing facilities and plume induced testing environments of high thrust engines because of the greater inter-dependence and synergy in the functioning of the different sub-systems. This is especially true for facilities such as the proposed A-3 facility at NASA SSC because of a challenging operating envelope linked to variable throttle conditions at relatively low chamber pressures. Facility designs in this case will require a complex network of diffuser ducts, steam ejector trains, fast operating valves, cooling water systems and flow diverters that need to be characterized for steady state performance. In this paper, we will demonstrate with the use of CFD analyses s advanced capability to evaluate supersonic diffuser and steam ejector performance in a sub-scale A-3 facility at NASA Stennis Space Center (SSC) where extensive testing was performed. Furthermore, the focus in this paper relates to modeling of critical sub-systems and components used in facilities such as the A-3 facility. The work here will address deficiencies in empirical models and current CFD analyses that are used for design of supersonic diffusers/turning vanes/ejectors as well as analyses for confined plumes and venting processes. The primary areas that will be addressed are: (1) supersonic diffuser performance including analyses of thermal loads (2) accurate shock capturing in the diffuser duct; (3) effect of turning duct on the performance of the facility (4) prediction of mass flow rates and performance classification for steam ejectors (5) comparisons with test data from sub-scale diffuser testing and assessment of confidence levels in CFD based flowpath modeling of the facility. The analyses tools used here expand on the multi-element unstructured CFD which has been tailored and validated for impingement dynamics of dry plumes, complex valve/feed systems, and high pressure propellant delivery systems used in engine and component test stands at NASA SSC. The analyses performed in the evaluation of the sub-scale diffuser facility explored several important factors that influence modeling and understanding of facility operation such as (a) importance of modeling the facility with Real Gas approximation, (b) approximating the cluster of steam ejector nozzles as a single annular nozzle, (c) existence of mixed subsonic/supersonic flow downstream of the turning duct, and (d) inadequacy of two-equation turbulence models in predicting the correct pressurization in the turning duct and expansion of the second stage steam ejectors. The procedure used for modeling the facility was as follows: (i) The engine, test cell and first stage ejectors were simulated with an axisymmetric approximation (ii) the turning duct, second stage ejectors and the piping downstream of the second stage ejectors were analyzed with a three-dimensional simulation utilizing a half-plane symmetry approximation. The solution i.e. primitive variables such as pressure, velocity components, temperature and turbulence quantities were passed from the first computational domain and specified as a supersonic boundary condition for the second simulation. (iii) The third domain comprised of the exit diffuser and the region in the vicinity of the facility (primary included to get the correct shock structure at the exit of the facility and entrainment characteristics). The first set of simulations comprising the engine, test cell and first stage ejectors was carried out both as a turbulent real gas calculation as well as a turbulent perfect gas calculation. A comparison for the two cases (Real Turbulent and Perfect gas turbulent) of the Ma Number distribution and temperature distributions are shown in Figures 1 and 2 respectively.

Allgood, Daniel C.↗

Dynamic Testing of a Commercial FRAM Device Under Gamma Ray Dose and Neutron Beam

Here, this work presents dose rate and neutron testing on a ferroelectric random-access memory (FRAM) device in dynamic operation during radiation pulses. Radiation failure modes are shown to be unique. Dose rate failure is shown to be based primarily on integrated dose in the radiation pulse and terminates the FRAM operation and can alter up to 8 bytes of data in storage. Neutron failures are attributed to a shifting of data like a clocking error.

Harris, Nathan↗

Final Scientific/Technical Report-FREE-piston Zero Emissions Refrigerator (FREEZER)

The FREE-piston Zero Emissions Refrigerator (FREEZER™) is a natural refrigerant Stirling-cycle cooler developed by AMSC in partnership with Heatcraft, targeted as a replacement refrigeration system for walk-in coolers or freezers found commonly in restaurants, convenience stores, supermarkets, etc. The FREEZER™, combined with a closed-loop CO2 heat-transfer system, had the goal to provides an efficient (Target COP = 1.4), zero ODP (Ozone Depletion Potential) and near zero GWP (Global Warming Potential) refrigeration solution with no synthetic, flammable, or toxic refrigerants. Other near zero GWP refrigeration systems do not exist at the scale and performance level of FREEZER. ARPA-E Continuation Funding enabled the design and fabrication of one Advanced Development Unit (ADU) cooler and two Field Test Unit (FTU) coolers, and a new revised Field Test Unit (new FTU). Heatcraft was to extensively test the various coolers at their facilities, which closely simulate real-world conditions. The original plan was to install and operate FREEZER FTUs alongside a traditional cooling solution at one or more customer locations to obtain data on direct performance comparisons with existing commercial refrigeration systems. Success in this FREEZER refinement and field-test project will establish the basis for a new class of environmentally friendly refrigeration systems that will revolutionize the industry. The hardware developed under the program is shown below in Figure 1. Five Stirling-cycle machines were built within the program, with a sixth cooler still under construction. The original DU and the ADU coolers met the performance target with a coefficient of performance (COP) of 1.2. The FTU was underperforming during the initial tuning of the free-piston Stirling cycle dynamics when there was a catastrophic failure of the fasteners on pressure boundary. This caused a pause to the program while the failure mechanism was investigated. The root cause was an inadequate flange design that allowed an excessive cyclic loading on the fasteners, leading to a fatigue failure. It was determined that existing FTU design could not be reasonably salvaged in a safe manner, and that fact, combined with the lower-than-expected performance of the new experimental heat exchanger modules lead to the design of the “new FTU” with a more conventional shell-and-tube heat exchanger design which should get close to the design target COP of 1.4, but have a higher overall machine cost. The program ran out of time before the fabrication of the new FTU was completed, but AMSC is still working on the cooler, with the majority of the parts fabricated, and hopes to have the unit under test sometime in early 2022, after which it will be shipped to Heatcraft for additional testing.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Theoretical model of impact damage in structural ceramics

This paper presents a mechanistically consistent model of impact damage based on elastic failures due to tensile and shear overloading. An elastic axisymmetric finite element model is used to determine the dynamic stresses generated by a single particle impact. Local failures in a finite element are assumed to occur when the primary/secondary principal stresses or the maximum shear stress reach critical tensile or shear stresses, respectively. The succession of failed elements thus models macrocrack growth. Sliding motions of cracks, which closed during unloading, are resisted by friction and the unrecovered deformation represents the 'plastic deformation' reported in the literature. The predicted ring cracks on the contact surface, as well as the cone cracks, median cracks, radial cracks, lateral cracks, and damage-induced porous zones in the interior of hot-pressed silicon nitride plates, matched those observed experimentally. The finite element model also predicted the uplifting of the free surface surrounding the impact site.

Liaw, B. M.↗

Characteristics of Space Shuttle Main Engine failures

During development and operation of the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME), 27 ground test failures of sufficient severity to be termed 'major incident' have occurred. Resourecs including NASA Failure Investigation Board reports, contractor failure reports, originally recorded data, along with engineering notes, data bases, and presentations connected with the failures were available for compilation into the engine failure review presented in this paper. Most SSME failures were a result of design deficiencies stemming from inadequate definition of dynamic loads. High cycle fatigue was the most frequent mechanism leading to failure. Eighteen of the 27 failures occurred during constant power level operation. Formal board reports were not available for all failures. Therefore, the failure history presented in this paper is not complete or of uniform quality.

Cikanek, Harry A., III↗

Distillation tray structural parameter study: Phase 1

The purpose here is to identify the structural parameters (plate thickness, liquid level, beam size, number of beams, tray diameter, etc.) that affect the structural integrity of distillation trays in distillation columns. Once the sensitivity of the trays' dynamic response to these parameters has been established, the designer will be able to use this information to prepare more accurate specifications for the construction of new trays. Information is given on both static and dynamic analysis, modal response, and tray failure details.

Winter, J. Ronald↗

Quantification of scaling exponents and crossover phenomena in nonstationary heartbeat time series

The healthy heartbeat is traditionally thought to be regulated according to the classical principle of homeostasis whereby physiologic systems operate to reduce variability and achieve an equilibrium-like state [Physiol. Rev. 9, 399-431 (1929)]. However, recent studies [Phys. Rev. Lett. 70, 1343-1346 (1993); Fractals in Biology and Medicine (Birkhauser-Verlag, Basel, 1994), pp. 55-65] reveal that under normal conditions, beat-to-beat fluctuations in heart rate display the kind of long-range correlations typically exhibited by dynamical systems far from equilibrium [Phys. Rev. Lett. 59, 381-384 (1987)]. In contrast, heart rate time series from patients with severe congestive heart failure show a breakdown of this long-range correlation behavior. We describe a new method--detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA)--for quantifying this correlation property in non-stationary physiological time series. Application of this technique shows evidence for a crossover phenomenon associated with a change in short and long-range scaling exponents. This method may be of use in distinguishing healthy from pathologic data sets based on differences in these scaling properties.

NASA Discipline Number 14-10↗

Computational Analyses in Support of Sub-scale Diffuser Testing for the A-3 Facility: Unsteady Analyses and Risk Assessment - Part 2

Simulation technology can play an important role in rocket engine test facility design and development by assessing risks, providing analysis of dynamic pressure and thermal loads, identifying failure modes and predicting anomalous behavior of critical systems. This is especially true for facilities such as the proposed A-3 facility at NASA SSC because of a challenging operating envelope linked to variable throttle conditions at relatively low chamber pressures. Design Support of the feasibility of operating conditions and procedures is critical in such cases due to the possibility of startup/shutdown transients, moving shock structures, unsteady shock-boundary layer interactions and engine and diffuser unstart modes that can result in catastrophic failure. Analyses of such systems is difficult due to resolution requirements needed to accurately capture moving shock structures, shock-boundary layer interactions, two-phase flow regimes and engine unstart modes. In a companion paper, we will demonstrate with the use of CFD, steady analyses advanced capability to evaluate supersonic diffuser and steam ejector performance in the sub-scale A-3 facility. In this paper we will address transient issues with the operation of the facility especially at startup and shutdown, and assess risks related to afterburning due to the interaction of a fuel rich plume with oxygen that is a by-product of the steam ejectors. The primary areas that will be addressed in this paper are: (1) analyses of unstart modes due to flow transients especially during startup/ignition, (2) engine safety during the shutdown process (3) interaction of steam ejectors with the primary plume i.e. flow transients as well as probability of afterburning. In this abstract we discuss unsteady analyses of the engine shutdown process. However, the final paper will include analyses of a staged startup, drawdown of the engine test cell pressure, and risk assessment of potential afterburning in the facility. Unsteady simulations have been carried out to study the engine shutdown process in the facility and understand the physics behind the interactions between the steam ejectors, the test cell and the supersonic diffuser. As a first approximation, to understand the dominant unsteady mechanisms in the engine test cell and the supersonic diffuser, the turning duct in the facility was removed. As the engine loses power a rarefaction wave travels downstream that disrupts the shock cell structure in the supersonic diffuser. Flow from the test cell is seen to expand into the supersonic diffuser section and re-pressurizes the area around the nozzle along with a upstream traveling compression wave that emanates from near the first stage ejectors. Flow from the first stage ejector expands to the center of the duct and a new shock train is formed between the first and second stage ejectors. Both stage ejectors keep the facility pressurized and prevent any large amplitude pressure fluctuations from affecting the engine nozzle. The resultant pressure loads the nozzle experiences in the shutdown process are small.

Ahuja, Vineet↗

INL Background, Capabilities, and Research Discussion for Potential COG Collaborations

Slides discussing general INL capabilities in a variety of research areas including LWRS, Plant Modernization, Risk-Informed Systems Analysis, the INL Digital Innovation Center of Excellence DICE, integrated online dynamic plant models, online deterministic failure-mode and reliability models of plant systems, equipment and components, and plant information models.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Max Launch Abort System (MLAS) Pad Abort Test Vehicle (PATV) II Attitude Control System (ACS) Integration and Pressurization Subsystem Dynamic Random Vibration Analysis

In order to mitigate catastrophic failures on future generation space vehicles, engineers at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration have begun to integrate a novel crew abort systems that could pull a crew module away in case of an emergency at the launch pad or during ascent. The Max Launch Abort System (MLAS) is a recent test vehicle that was designed as an alternative to the baseline Orion Launch Abort System (LAS) to demonstrate the performance of a "tower-less" LAS configuration under abort conditions. The MLAS II test vehicle will execute a propulsive coast stabilization maneuver during abort to control the vehicles trajectory and thrust. To accomplish this, the spacecraft will integrate an Attitude Control System (ACS) with eight hypergolic monomethyl hydrazine liquid propulsion engines that are capable of operating in a quick pulsing mode. Two main elements of the ACS include a propellant distribution subsystem and a pressurization subsystem to regulate the flow of pressurized gas to the propellant tanks and the engines. The CAD assembly of the Attitude Control System (ACS) was configured and integrated into the Launch Abort Vehicle (LAV) design. A dynamic random vibration analysis was conducted on the Main Propulsion System (MPS) helium pressurization panels to assess the response of the panel and its components under increased gravitational acceleration loads during flight. The results indicated that the panels fundamental and natural frequencies were farther from the maximum Acceleration Spectral Density (ASD) vibrations which were in the range of 150-300 Hz. These values will direct how the components will be packaged in the vehicle to reduce the effects high gravitational loads.

Ekrami, Yasamin↗

Subdiffusive High-Pressure Hydrogen Gas Dynamics in Elastomers

We report elastomeric rubber materials serve a vital role as sealing materials in the hydrogen storage and transport infrastructure. With applications including O-rings and hose liners, these components are exposed to pressurized hydrogen at a range of temperatures, cycling rates, and pressure extremes. High-pressure exposure and subsequent rapid decompression often lead to cavitation and stress-induced damage of the elastomer due to localization of the hydrogen gas. Here, we use all-atom classical molecular dynamics simulations to assess the impact of compositional variations on gas diffusion within the commonly used elastomer ethylene–propylene–diene monomer (EPDM). With the aim to build a predictive understanding of precursors to cavitation and to motivate material formulations that are less sensitive to hydrogen-induced failure, we perform systematic simulations of gas dynamics in EPDM as a function of temperature, gas concentration, and cross-link density. Our simulations reveal anomalous, subdiffusive hydrogen motion at pressure and intermediate times. We identify two groups of gas with different mobilities: one group exhibiting high mobility and one group exhibiting low mobility due to their motion being impeded by the polymer. With decreasing temperatures, the low-mobility group shows increased gas localization, the necessary precursor for cavitation damage in these materials. At lower temperatures, increasing cross-link density led to greater hydrogen gas mobility and a lower fraction of caged hydrogen, indicating that increasing cross-link density may reduce precursors to cavitation. Finally, we use a two-state kinetic model to determine the energetics associated with transitions between these two mobility states.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Engineering Risk Assessment of Space Thruster Challenge Problem

The Engineering Risk Assessment (ERA) team at NASA Ames Research Center utilizes dynamic models with linked physics-of-failure analyses to produce quantitative risk assessments of space exploration missions. This paper applies the ERA approach to the baseline and extended versions of the PSAM Space Thruster Challenge Problem, which investigates mission risk for a deep space ion propulsion system with time-varying thruster requirements and operations schedules. The dynamic mission is modeled using a combination of discrete and continuous-time reliability elements within the commercially available GoldSim software. Loss-of-mission (LOM) probability results are generated via Monte Carlo sampling performed by the integrated model. Model convergence studies are presented to illustrate the sensitivity of integrated LOM results to the number of Monte Carlo trials. A deterministic risk model was also built for the three baseline and extended missions using the Ames Reliability Tool (ART), and results are compared to the simulation results to evaluate the relative importance of mission dynamics. The ART model did a reasonable job of matching the simulation models for the baseline case, while a hybrid approach using offline dynamic models was required for the extended missions. This study highlighted that state-of-the-art techniques can adequately adapt to a range of dynamic problems.

Assessment↗