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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 253 records · Page 14
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Defect Production and Microstructural Feature Impact for Radiation Damage in Additively Manufactured 316 Stainless Steel

This milestone presents multi-scale modeling research results for additively manufactured 316 stainless steel. A combination of phase field, cluster dynamics, molecular dynamics, and density functional theory with machine learning is used, allowing for predictions of radiation-driven microstructural evolution in additively manufactured 316 stainless steel over a range of temperatures, damage rates, neutron spectra, and microstructures, and supporting the development of combined ion and neutron irradiation for material qualification. Informed by ion irradiation and neutron irradiation results across the Advanced Materials and Manufacturing Technologies program, we investigate the unique aspects of radiation-driven microstructure evolution in additively manufactured 316 stainless steel. In particular, we focus on understanding the impact of carbon concentration (varying, for example, between the 316L and 316H standards) on void formation; radiation-induced segregation at dislocation cells and grain boundaries; and the evolution of dislocation loops and network dislocation populations. We find that the unique characteristics of the additively manufactured microstructures must be accounted for in understanding the evolution of dislocation populations under thermal and irradiation conditions, such as the variation in sink strengths arising due to the variation in dislocation density. We also find that the radiation-induced segregation of Cr and Ni to grain boundaries and cell walls differs due to the differences in their defect sink biases. We also find that increasing the Ni content can slow vacancy diffusion, which may provide a mechanism for the observed reduction in transient swelling rate for austenitic Fe-Cr-Ni alloys with increasing Ni content. In addition, ion irradiations have shown that increasing carbon content in 316 SS results in a larger population of smaller voids, suggesting reduced vacancy diffusion. Our results show that the carbon content of additively manufactured 316 SS has a significant impact on the migration rate of defect clusters. The presence of carbon atoms results in carbon-vacancy trapping, significantly reducing the diffusion rate of vacancies. Carbon atoms may also be trapped near the surface of a void, which may reduce void growth by trapping vacancies that diffuse toward the void.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

JuTrack: A Julia package for auto-differentiable accelerator modeling and particle tracking

Efficient accelerator modeling and particle tracking are key for the design and configuration of modern particle accelerators. In this work, we present JuTrack, a nested accelerator modeling package developed in the Julia programming language and enhanced with compiler-level automatic differentiation (AD). With the aid of AD, JuTrack enables rapid derivative calculations in accelerator modeling, facilitating sensitivity analyses and optimization tasks. Here we demonstrate the effectiveness of AD-derived derivatives through several practical applications, including sensitivity analysis of space-charge-induced emittance growth, nonlinear beam dynamics analysis for a synchrotron light source, and lattice parameter tuning of the future Electron-Ion Collider (EIC). Through the incorporation of automatic differentiation, this package opens up new possibilities for accelerator physicists in beam physics studies and accelerator design optimization.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Distributionally Robust Bilevel Optimization Model for Distribution Network With Demand Response Under Uncertain Renewables Using Wasserstein Metrics

Here, we consider a distribution network integrating demand response (DR) participants in the presence of uncertain renewable suppliers and outdoor temperatures. A bilevel optimization model is proposed to capture the intricate dynamics between price-incentivized DR participants and distribution system operations, including energy procurement and active/reactive power flows. The model is formulated as a distributional robust bilevel optimization using Wasserstein metrics. We show favorable data-driven properties including out-of-sample guarantee and asymptotic consistency. Furthermore, we present a tractable mixed-integer linear programming reformulation and characterize the worst-case distribution. Computational experiments are conducted on a modified 33-bus system. Our findings underscore the efficacy of the pricing strategies derived from the proposed bilevel optimization model. These strategies not only effectively manage DR participants' behavior but also bring equity considerations among households with various characteristics to light. The results contribute to a deeper understanding of the interplay between distribution system operators and DR participants.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hanford Tank Waste Technology Development Integration and Innovation Synergy

The Chief Technology Office (CTO) within Hanford Tank Waste Operations & Closure (H2C) identifies technology development needs and develops solutions for tank waste treatment. One key element of the technology development (TD) program is the annual Technology Development Integrated Coordination (TDIC) meeting series. The main goal of these meetings is to inform the National Laboratories and other entities of the needs identified by the end users of the technology. In turn, the meetings provide an opportunity for National Laboratories and others to provide insight into potential solutions. This dynamic facilitates dialogues that frequently identify not only new, innovative approaches, but also enhancements to ongoing technology development projects.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2025

Phenomena Identification and Ranking Table (PIRT) for heat pipes

Heat pipes are advanced passive thermal management devices that utilize phase change and capillary action to achieve efficient heat transfer. However, due to the complexity of the phenomena coupled in heat pipes, including capillary, phase change, turbulence, and compressibility effects, there are high uncertainties in the predictability of their operational regimes and performance. This PIRT exercise, conducted as a collaborative effort involving the Department of Energy (DOE) Microreactor Program (MRP), the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), and university partners systematically identifies, reviews, and prioritizes critical phenomena affecting the operation of heat pipes based on their importance and knowledge levels. Additional analyses and discussion are provided for phenomena with high importance and low knowledge, such as wick de-wetting, critical heat flux, contact angles, and pressure dynamics. The discussions included the recognizing challenges and proposing future research directions for both modeling and simulation and experimental efforts. Additionally, the report addresses phenomena with medium importance and low knowledge that could impact heat pipe operation during non-normal or transient operation, including frozen startup, laminar to turbulent transition, geyser boiling, wick priming, underfilling conditions, surface roughness of the wick, NCGs trapped in the wick, and the timescales of startup and shutdown. In conclusion, this comprehensive evaluation serves as a valuable resource for guiding future research and development efforts, supporting the successful integration of heat pipes into critical applications such as nuclear reactors, and contributing to the advancement of heat pipe technologies in safety-critical industries.

21 - SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLAN↗
DOE OSTI2026

Hydrogeological assessment of CO2 containment assurance and wellbore integrity at a Gulf Coast storage site

Abstract A large-scale carbon capture and storage (CCS) initiative on the Texas Gulf Coast serves as a premier demonstration of the U.S. Department of Energy’s CarbonSAFE program. Targeting deep saline formations, specifically Oligo-Miocene deltaic sequences, the project aims to establish technical and commercial viability for geologic CO2 storage within a major industrial corridor. This study provides a rigorous hydrogeological assessment to support Class VI permitting by quantifying the high degree of containment security. Utilizing a compositional reservoir simulator, we developed a suite of 27 distinct simulation cases to evaluate vertical plume dynamics near both planned injection wells and proximal legacy infrastructure. To ensure numerical accuracy near wellbores, we implemented a refined mesh strategy, determining that a 5.6 ft × 5.6 ft grid refinement offered the optimal balance between computational efficiency and descriptive precision. The modeling framework utilized a systematic sensitivity-based approach to evaluate the mechanical redundancy of the subsurface system by performing a bounding analysis of wellbore interfaces against hypothetical high-permeability microannuli. By systematically isolating competing physical drivers, including permeability, porosity, gas hysteresis, thermal gradients, salinity, and solubility trapping (quantified via Henry’s law with dynamically adjusted coefficients), this work moves beyond binary assessments to establish a nuanced hierarchy of containment factors. The results confirm that primary trapping mechanisms (e.g., gas hysteresis and solubility), combined with the site's unique geomechanical stratigraphy, significantly restrict vertical mobility and reinforce the robust containment security of the reservoir. Baseline results demonstrate substantial vertical separation between the CO2 plume and the upper confining system, ensuring robust containment. Sensitivity analysis reveals that even under highly conservative bounding scenarios—assuming theoretical 10-Darcy pathways at specific wellbore locations—the 2,900-ft thick multi-layered confining zone remains a reliable barrier. In these hypothetical upper-bound cases, peak upward fluxes of CO2 and saltwater after 15 years of injection remain localized and dissipate rapidly within the lower sections of the confining interval, leaving the integrity of the seal uncompromised. Furthermore, the study identifies that while localized wellbore pathways define theoretical upper bounds of vertical migration, the Area of Review (AoR) is primarily sensitive to regional thermal gradients and hysteresis, which can influence the AoR by over 3,000 acres in pessimistic configurations. Also, primary trapping mechanisms, specifically gas hysteresis and solubility, work in tandem with the Gulf Coast’s unique geomechanical stratigraphy to significantly restrict vertical mobility. Ductile, smectite-rich mudstones facilitate natural borehole convergence and the self-healing of potential conduits, creating a natural geomechanical bridge that effectively mitigates migration potential at both current injection points and legacy-well locations. This comprehensive modeling effort demonstrates that the integration of high-resolution wellbore simulations and regional geomechanical observations confirms the long-term storage security of the studied site, providing a physics-based foundation for industrial-scale CCS deployments. This modeling framework establishes a baseline for future research into coupled geomechanical effects, such as time-dependent borehole convergence, to further refine long-term containment projections. Acknowledgements We thank the Gulf Coast Carbon Center (GCCC) at the Bureau of Economic Geology for foundational research support. We appreciate Alex Bump for technical guidance and David Hoffman for model mesh generation. This work used TACC’s Frontera cluster for simulations and CMG Ltd. software licenses provided to UT-Austin. This material is based upon work supported by the Department of Energy under Award Number DE-FE0032338. Disclaimer This material is based upon work supported by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Fossil Energy and Carbon Management Office under the CarbonSAFE program, award Number DE-FE0032338. The views expressed herein do not necessarily represent the views of the U.S. Department of Energy or the United States Government.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Hydrogeological assessment of CO2 containment assurance and wellbore integrity at a Gulf Coast storage site

Abstract A large-scale carbon capture and storage (CCS) initiative on the Texas Gulf Coast serves as a premier demonstration of the U.S. Department of Energy’s CarbonSAFE program. Targeting deep saline formations, specifically Oligo-Miocene deltaic sequences, the project aims to establish technical and commercial viability for geologic CO2 storage within a major industrial corridor. This study provides a rigorous hydrogeological assessment to support Class VI permitting by quantifying the high degree of containment security. Utilizing a compositional reservoir simulator, we developed a suite of 27 distinct simulation cases to evaluate vertical plume dynamics near both planned injection wells and proximal legacy infrastructure. To ensure numerical accuracy near wellbores, we implemented a refined mesh strategy, determining that a 5.6 ft × 5.6 ft grid refinement offered the optimal balance between computational efficiency and descriptive precision. The modeling framework utilized a systematic sensitivity-based approach to evaluate the mechanical redundancy of the subsurface system by performing a bounding analysis of wellbore interfaces against hypothetical high-permeability microannuli. By systematically isolating competing physical drivers, including permeability, porosity, gas hysteresis, thermal gradients, salinity, and solubility trapping (quantified via Henry’s law with dynamically adjusted coefficients), this work moves beyond binary assessments to establish a nuanced hierarchy of containment factors. The results confirm that primary trapping mechanisms (e.g., gas hysteresis and solubility), combined with the site's unique geomechanical stratigraphy, significantly restrict vertical mobility and reinforce the robust containment security of the reservoir. Baseline results demonstrate substantial vertical separation between the CO2 plume and the upper confining system, ensuring robust containment. Sensitivity analysis reveals that even under highly conservative bounding scenarios—assuming theoretical 10-Darcy pathways at specific wellbore locations—the 2,900-ft thick multi-layered confining zone remains a reliable barrier. In these hypothetical upper-bound cases, peak upward fluxes of CO2 and saltwater after 15 years of injection remain localized and dissipate rapidly within the lower sections of the confining interval, leaving the integrity of the seal uncompromised. Furthermore, the study identifies that while localized wellbore pathways define theoretical upper bounds of vertical migration, the Area of Review (AoR) is primarily sensitive to regional thermal gradients and hysteresis, which can influence the AoR by over 3,000 acres in pessimistic configurations. Also, primary trapping mechanisms, specifically gas hysteresis and solubility, work in tandem with the Gulf Coast’s unique geomechanical stratigraphy to significantly restrict vertical mobility. Ductile, smectite-rich mudstones facilitate natural borehole convergence and the self-healing of potential conduits, creating a natural geomechanical bridge that effectively mitigates migration potential at both current injection points and legacy-well locations. This comprehensive modeling effort demonstrates that the integration of high-resolution wellbore simulations and regional geomechanical observations confirms the long-term storage security of the studied site, providing a physics-based foundation for industrial-scale CCS deployments. This modeling framework establishes a baseline for future research into coupled geomechanical effects, such as time-dependent borehole convergence, to further refine long-term containment projections. Acknowledgements We thank the Gulf Coast Carbon Center (GCCC) at the Bureau of Economic Geology for foundational research support. We appreciate Alex Bump for technical guidance and David Hoffman for model mesh generation. This work used TACC’s Frontera cluster for simulations and CMG Ltd. software licenses provided to UT-Austin. This material is based upon work supported by the Department of Energy under Award Number DE-FE0032338. Disclaimer This material is based upon work supported by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Fossil Energy and Carbon Management Office under the CarbonSAFE program, award Number DE-FE0032338. The views expressed herein do not necessarily represent the views of the U.S. Department of Energy or the United States Government.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Optimization of an aerostructural machining process using physics-guided Bayesian stability modelling

Existing algorithms for predicting milling chatter have not been widely adopted in industry since they require specialized instruments to measure the stability inputs. This study describes how the machining process for a meter-scale aluminum aerostructure was optimized using a physics-guided Bayesian stability model. The study was performed in collaboration with an industrial partner on production machines to evaluate the practicality of the proposed method under real-world conditions. For each cutting tool, the Bayesian approach automatically selected a small number of cutting tests, which were monitored using a microphone to observe the chatter frequency. The algorithm learned the system dynamics, cutting forces, and stability map from these test results. A novel algorithm for predicting tool bending stress was incorporated into the test selection algorithm to avoid tool breakage. On average, each set of optimized cutting parameters required less than six tests to identify and were 97% more productive than baseline parameters from the cutting tool manufacturer. The machining program was then further optimized using commercial feedrate scheduling software to remove cutting force spikes and reduce air cutting time. Five components were machined using the optimized process. These results demonstrate the potential for physics-guided Bayesian models to improve productivity in industrial settings.

Cornelius, Aaron [UT Knoxville]↗
DOE OSTI2024

CEA/LANL Collaboration Needs [Slides]

The success of the current Gamma Reaction History program is the product of a multi-institutional collaboration between LANL/LLNL/AWE/NNSS/LLE/Industry. Our multi-decadal collaboration has led a multiple generation of reaction history instruments (Generation-1, -2, -3, and now we are designing 4th generation). In post-ignition era, new challenges are arising (too fast, too high, too many). In 4th Generation, we aim to increase Detection Dynamic Range and need Geant4 simulation help.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2026

pH Regulates Ion Dynamics in Carboxylated Mixed Conductors

Coupled ionic and electronic transport underpins processes as diverse as electrochemical energy conversion, biological signaling, and soft adaptive electronics. Yet, how chemical environments such as pH modulate this coupling at the molecular scale remains poorly understood. Here, we show that the protonation state of carboxylated polythiophenes provides precise chemical control over ion dynamics, doping efficiency, solvent uptake, and mechanical response. Using a suite of multimodal operando techniques, supported by simulations, we reveal that pH dictates the balance of cation/anion uptake during electrochemical doping. Mapping across pH uncovers a quasi-nonswelling regime (≈pH 3–3.5) where charge compensation proceeds with minimal volumetric change yet pronounced stiffening. These findings establish molecular acidity as a general strategy to program ionic preference and mechanical stability, offering design principles for pH-responsive mixed conductors and soft electronic materials that couple ionic, electronic, and mechanical functionality.

PH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Assessment of Microstructure Prediction Capabilities for Powder Bed Fusion Stainless Steel 316

The Advanced Materials and Manufacturing Technologies program aims to accelerate the development, qualification, demonstration, and deployment of advanced materials and manufacturing technologies to enable reliable and economical nuclear energy. However, the characteristic process-structure-property relationships of additive manufacturing (AM) materials pose challenges for the qualification and certification of AM nuclear components. In particular, component-scale variations in microstructure and properties can be driven by localized changes in melt pool dynamics due to how process parameters interact with different part geometries. Computational modeling tools can play a crucial role in predicting and controlling this variability. This report presents final results on process modeling tools designed to predict microstructure variability in additively manufactured stainless steel 316 parts. It details the software packages and physical modeling approaches employed to simulate an AM component within an automated process modeling workflow. Results are demonstrated through comparisons between predicted microstructures and experimental measurements across various representative processing conditions. The report concludes by discussing identified challenges and future opportunities for connecting the developed simulation workflow with mechanics simulations for prediction of part performance.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Development of high throughput light-sheet fluorescence lifetime imaging microscopy for 3D functional imaging of metabolic pathways in plant and microorganisms (Final Technical Report)

This research program will enable new biochemical contrast in the nanosecond lifetime domain through use of the recently demonstrated electro-optic fluorescence lifetime imaging technique (EO-FLIM) for wide-field lifetime imaging. The Stanford/Stanford Linear Accelerator Center multidisciplinary collaboration -- physics, applied physics, and structural biology -- will develop a light-sheet fluorescence lifetime imaging microscope for functional studies of microbial and plant metabolic pathways and dynamic interactions between plants and microorganisms in the rhizosphere. The proposed approach overcomes the imaging time bottleneck associated with existing fluorescence lifetime imaging methods. Initial demonstrations have shown a factor of 100,000 improvement in photon throughput compared to existing methods. High photon efficiency allowed the first wide-field fluorescence lifetime imaging of single molecules. Recent work has improved the technique’s repetition rate to enable compatibility with mode-locked lasers and demonstrated the combination of wide-field fluorescence lifetime imaging with super-resolution localization microscopy, observations of single molecule dynamics, and observation of donor lifetime quenching in single-molecule imaging. These results were achieved on standard camera sensors and would not have been possible with other wide-field approaches. The throughput and photon economy of the EO-FLIM method enables new BER-relevant imaging opportunities. In particular, scanned single- and two-photon light-sheet excitation will be used to achieve volumetric imaging with time-domain contrast.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Automatically parallelizing batch inference on deep neural networks using Fiats and Fortran 2023 `do concurrent`

This paper introduces novel programming strategies that leverage features of the Fortran 2023 standard of the International Standards Organization (ISO) to automatically parallelize computations on deep neural networks. The paper focuses on the interplay of object-oriented, parallel, and functional programming paradigms in the Fiats deep learning library. We demonstrate how several infrequently used language features play a role in enabling efficient, parallel execution. Specifically, the ability to explicitly declare that a procedure is pure facilitates inference in the context of the language’s loop-parallelism construct `do concurrent`. Also, explicitly prohibiting the overriding of a parent type’s type-bound procedures eliminates the need for dynamic dispatch in performance-critical code. Finally, this paper uses batch inference calculations on a neural network surrogate for atmospheric aerosol dynamics to demonstrate that LLVM Flang compiler’s automatic parallelization of `do concurrent` achieves roughly the same performance and scalability as achieved by OpenMP compiler directives. We also demonstrate that double-precision inference costs 37–72% longer runtime than default-real precision with most values in the range 57-60%.

Rouson, Damian↗
DOE OSTI2024

A development of wide dynamic-range halo monitor for 8 GeV proton beams at FNAL

The FNAL accelerator complex has been upgrading in increasing beam intensity and beam quality. A new beam halo diagnostic device is required in the beam transport line between booster and Recycler. For this purpose, it was decided to introduce the wide dynamic range monitor technique that was developed in 2012 and has been in operation at the J-PARC beam transport line. The device is a two-dimensional beam profile monitor, and it has a dynamic range of approximately six digits of magnitude by using of Optical Transition Radiation and fluorescence screens. Eliminating harmful beam halos is the most important technique for high-intensity proton accelerators. Therefore, beam halo diagnosis is indispensable and becomes more and more important. New FNAL device has been manufactured in a collaboration between J-PARC and FNAL as a part of U.S.-Japan Science and Technology Cooperation Program in High Energy Physics. The equipment will be manufactured at J-PARC and will be shipped to FNAL in 2025.We designed the device to satisfy FNAL specifications: the beam energy, intensity, and size. Currently, most of the equipments are under construction. The large-aperture optical system has been completed and its optical characteristics are being evaluated at J-PARC. We have been also investigating measurement methods corresponding to FNAL bunch trains. This paper reports on the current status of these developments.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeling Approach for the Aluminum-clad Dry Storage Pilot using HFIR Fuel

To confirm that the dry storage of aluminum-clad research reactor spent nuclear fuel (ASNF) will remain within the safety envelope after applied drying schemes and that the resulting evolution of the gas space composition, temperature, and pressure conditions are understood, a dry storage pilot project is being established. The pilot will incorporate an instrumented lid for discrete interval or for on-demand gas composition and temperature monitoring of two DOE Standard Canisters (DSCs) loaded with three High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) inner cores per DSC. Each DSC would be subjected to a separate alternative candidate drying scheme. Canisters will undergo 1 to 5 years of monitoring, including internal temperature and gas sampling to track pressure and composition changes. This report outlines the approach for modeling the ASNF-in-canister behavior in terms of evolving gas space conditions for the ASNF dry storage pilot using HFIR fuel. The ASNF has an adherent surface oxyhydroxide layer comprised of boehmite/bayerite that generates hydrogen when subjected to irradiation. Three-dimensional multi-physics computational fluid dynamics simulations will be executed to compute the thermal field within the DSC and provide inputs to a chemical model employed to compute pressure buildup as hydrogen is generated in the system. Implemented in Cantera, the chemical model solves gas phase and aluminum oxyhydroxide surface-mediated radiolysis reactions. Gas phase reactions are sourced from Wittman and Hanson (2015), whereas surface-mediated reactions are incorporated by fitting experimental data using an optimization algorithm (Abboud, 2023). Water radiolysis reactions from Wren and Ball (2001) are adopted with modifications as described in Abboud (2023c). Understanding the effect of the hydrogen buildup over time is important for long-term storage safety considerations. Modeling results will include the canister pressure, temperature, and composition evolution from the initial helium backfill with the addition of radiolytically-evolved chemical species (e.g., hydrogen and oxygen). The specific HFIR cores for the pilot program have not yet been selected, and the overall design is still in development. The CFD-chemical model used for this work will be based on prior models with necessary updates to allow for improved accuracy and efficiency. The experimental data obtained from the HFIR demonstration will be used to improve and validate the computational models to predict the ASNF-in-canister behavior.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2026

AthenaK: A Performance-portable Version of the Athena++ Adaptive Mesh Refinement Framework

We describe AthenaK: a new implementation of the Athena++ block-based adaptive mesh refinement framework using the Kokkos programming model. Finite volume methods for Newtonian, special relativistic, and general relativistic (GR) hydrodynamics and magnetohydrodynamics (MHD), and GR-radiation hydrodynamics and MHD, as well as a module for evolving Lagrangian tracer or charged test particles (e.g., cosmic rays) are implemented using the framework. In two companion papers, we describe (1) a new solver for the Einstein equations based on the Z4c formalism, and (2) a GRMHD solver in dynamical spacetimes also implemented using the framework, enabling new applications in numerical relativity. By adopting Kokkos, the code can be run on virtually any hardware, including CPUs, GPUs from multiple vendors, and emerging Advanced RISC Machine processors. AthenaK shows excellent performance and weak scaling, achieving over 1 billion cell updates per second for hydrodynamics in three dimensions on a single NVIDIA Grace Hopper processor. It does this with a typical parallel efficiency of 80% on 65,536 AMD GPUs on the OLCF Frontier system. Such performance portability enables AthenaK to leverage modern exascale computing systems for challenging applications in astrophysical fluid dynamics, numerical relativity, and multimessenger astrophysics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impact of a dynamic grid mix and climate on operational carbon emissions modeling for different building typologies and climate zones

Calculating operational carbon emissions through a building’s lifecycle is complex due to the dynamic nature of influencing factors such as climate and energy grid mix. This paper introduces a novel methodology for modeling 30-year operational carbon impacts of buildings and applies this method to mid-rise office and residential typologies across various US climate zones. The method accounts for these temporal variabilities using new and scarcely cited data sources. Key findings indicate that future changes in the climate, while impactful, play a relatively modest role in operational carbon emissions compared to significant reductions with modeling scenarios using the projected decarbonization of the electricity grid. Here, the study also finds that using annual, month-hourly, or hourly grid emission factors have a minimal impact on carbon accounting, except in certain climates and program types where emission patterns do not align with a building’s energy consumption. Warmer climates like Miami, Florida and Tucson, Arizona, which rely heavily on cooling, demonstrate larger variations in carbon emissions when using higher temporal resolution emission factors. Ultimately, this study underscores the critical role of grid decarbonization in reducing long-term emissions and the importance of incorporating this variable in life cycle assessment (LCA) modeling.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗