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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Spatial top-down proteomics for the functional characterization of human kidney

Background: The Human Proteome Project has credibly detected nearly 93% of the roughly 20,000 proteins which are predicted by the human genome. However, the proteome is enigmatic, where alterations in amino acid sequences from polymorphisms and alternative splicing, errors in translation, and post-translational modifications result in a proteome depth estimated at several million unique proteoforms. Recently mass spectrometry has been demonstrated in several landmark efforts mapping the human proteoform landscape in bulk analyses. Herein, we developed an integrated workflow for characterizing proteoforms from human tissue in a spatially resolved manner by coupling laser capture microdissection, nanoliter-scale sample preparation, and mass spectrometry imaging. Results: Using healthy human kidney sections as the case study, we focused our analyses on the major functional tissue units including glomeruli, tubules, and medullary rays. After laser capture microdissection, these isolated functional tissue units were processed with microPOTS (microdroplet processing in one-pot for trace samples) for sensitive top-down proteomics measurement. This provided a quantitative database of 616 proteoforms that was further leveraged as a library for mass spectrometry imaging with near-cellular spatial resolution over the entire section. Notably, several mitochondrial proteoforms were found to be differentially abundant between glomeruli and convoluted tubules, and further spatial contextualization was provided by mass spectrometry imaging confirming unique differences identified by microPOTS, and further expanding the field-of-view for unique distributions such as enhanced abundance of a truncated form (1-74) of ubiquitin within cortical regions. Conclusions: We developed an integrated workflow to directly identify proteoforms and reveal their spatial distributions. Where of the 20 differentially abundant proteoforms identified as discriminate between tubules and glomeruli by microPOTS, the vast majority of tubular proteoforms were of mitochondrial origin (8 of 10) where discriminate proteoforms in glomeruli were primarily hemoglobin subunits (9 of 10). These trends were also identified within ion images demonstrating spatially resolved characterization of proteoforms that has the potential to reshape discovery-based proteomics because the proteoforms are the ultimate effector of cellular functions. Applications of this technology have the potential to unravel etiology and pathophysiology of disease states, informing on biologically active proteoforms, which remodel the proteomic landscape in chronic and acute disorders.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Proof for the Unbiased Nature of Range-Doppler Measurements in Coarse-Resolution Dechirp-on-Receive Feedback Synthetic Aperture Radar Navigation

In feedback synthetic aperture radar (SAR) navigation, observables extracted from SAR range-Doppler images correct position and velocity errors accumulated within an associated navigation system. Unlike most other sensors, which produce measurements without input from a navigation system, SARs require a prior estimate of the radar’s position and velocity to adjust the radar’s matched filter during range-Doppler image formation. Consequently, it is possible for position and velocity errors within a navigation system to manifest as additional errors (biases) in the range-Doppler measurement observables. Prior work has not tackled this possibility in the context of feedback SAR navigation with a dechirp-on-receive radar. This paper offers a proof demonstrating that range-Doppler observables extracted from coarse-resolution vertical SAR images formed with a dechirp-on-receive radar may be safely modeled as unbiased measurements of the radar’s true position and velocity despite the presence of moderate navigation errors.

dechirp-on-receive↗
DOE OSTI2024

Uniformly decaying subspaces for error-mitigated quantum computation

Here, we present a general condition to obtain subspaces that decay uniformly in a system governed by the Lindblad master equation and use them to perform error-mitigated quantum computation. The expectation values of dynamics encoded in such subspaces are unbiased estimators of noise-free expectation values. In analogy to the decoherence free subspaces which are left invariant by the action of Lindblad operators, we show that the uniformly decaying subspaces are left invariant (up to orthogonal terms) by the action of the dissipative part of the Lindblad equation. We apply our theory to a system of qubits and qudits undergoing relaxation with varying decay rates and show that such subspaces can be used to eliminate bias up to first-order variations in the decay rates without requiring full knowledge of noise. Since such a bias cannot be corrected through standard symmetry verification, our method can improve error mitigation in dual-rail qubits and, given partial knowledge of noise, can perform better than probabilistic error cancellation.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2025

Ultrasonic characterization of material heterogeneities in stainless steel components produced by laser powder bed fusion

We introduce pulse-echo ultrasound as a method for characterizing the impact of powder bed fusion parameters on the properties of additively manufactured stainless-steel components, their material anisotropy, and location-dependent heterogeneity. Our results indicate that accurate characterization requires careful selection of ultrasonic propagation paths, which must consider the direction of additive layering, variations in processing parameters, and the component's geometry. We employed two distinct methods to estimate material properties from ultrasonic data: One assumes isotropy, while the other accounts for anisotropic interactions during the propagation of elastic waves. When applied to samples fabricated with laser energy densities ranging from 24 to 42 J/mm³ , these methods revealed transverse isotropy and weak anisotropy (quantified by small Thomsen parameters, ε = 0.0651 and γ = 0.0092) and less than a ∼6 % change in acoustic impedance. The assumption of isotropy, in this case, leads to small errors (less than 4 % or 1 % for Young's modulus in the build or transverse directions) when estimating orthotropic material properties using ultrasonic data measured along just two orthogonal directions, one of which must align with the build direction. By comparing ultrasonic measurements — which aggregate the spatial variability in material properties along the length of elastic wave propagation into a single value — with localized measurements obtained from surface nanoindentation, we uncovered and spatially profiled significant differences between the surface and interior properties. Specifically, the surface Young's modulus decreased from approximately 210 GPa to 180 GPa within a depth of about 3 mm. We attribute this surface-localized heterogeneity in PBF-fabricated components to distinct thermal histories experienced by the surface and interior regions. Collectively, the results of this study establish a framework for the ultrasonic characterization of material heterogeneity and anisotropy in material properties and demonstrate its application in additively manufactured metal components.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Non-Invasive Electrode Impedance Estimation for Optimized Charge Profile Parameterization of Lithium-Ion Batteries

This work presents a non-invasive method for parameterizing a physically motivated equivalent circuit model of lithium-ion batteries using operando electrochemical impedance spectroscopy and time-domain data. The proposed model consists exclusively of linear circuit elements, enabling computationally efficient simulation and real-time implementation on battery management system chips. By integrating frequency- and time-domain measurements, the model accurately estimates internal states such as the negative electrode potential, achieving a root mean square error of 12.3 mV during fast charging validation. Parameterization requires only rate tests with sinusoidal perturbations at three different ambient temperatures, making the approach experimentally accessible. The model reveals key insights into battery behavior, including rate-dependent overpotentials primarily governed by charge transfer kinetics at the positive electrode, and temperature-dependent impedance contributions from both charge transfer and solid-state diffusion processes. Validation using reference electrodes confirms the model’s ability to detect lithium plating onset and reproduce impedance behavior across a wide range of operating conditions. The approach enables in situ optimization of fast charging profiles and lays the foundation for future extensions incorporating aging effects and plating dynamics.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Toward the validation of crowdsourced experiments for lightness perception

Crowdsource platforms have been used to study a range of perceptual stimuli such as the graphical perception of scatterplots and various aspects of human color perception. Given the lack of control over a crowdsourced participant’s experimental setup, there are valid concerns on the use of crowdsourcing for color studies as the perception of the stimuli is highly dependent on the stimulus presentation. Here, we propose that the error due to a crowdsourced experimental design can be effectively averaged out because the crowdsourced experiment can be accommodated by the Thurstonian model as the convolution of two normal distributions, one that is perceptual in nature and one that captures the error due to variability in stimulus presentation. Based on this, we provide a mathematical estimate for the sample size needed to produce a crowdsourced experiment with the same power as the corresponding in-person study. We tested this claim by replicating a large-scale, crowdsourced study of human lightness perception with a diverse sample with a highly controlled, in-person study with a sample taken from psychology undergraduates. Our claim was supported by the replication of the results from the latter. These findings suggest that, with sufficient sample size, color vision studies may be completed online, giving access to a larger and more representative sample. With this framework at hand, experimentalists have the validation that choosing either many online participants or few in person participants will not sacrifice the impact of their results.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Estimating Soil Thermal Inertia Profiles From the Passive Equilibration of a Temperature Probe

Knowledge of the distribution of soil thermal properties is important for understanding subsurface hydrological and biogeochemical processes. This study describes and evaluates quick thermal profiling (QTP), a new measurement technique aimed at providing rapid, depth-resolved measurements of soil thermal inertia at numerous locations across the landscape. A cylindrical probe with temperature sensors at multiple depths is quickly inserted into the ground, and soil thermal inertia is estimated from how quickly the probe temperature equilibrates with the soil. To this end, a finite volume heat transfer model is used to generate temperature equilibration time series across combinations of controlling factors, and a gridded search inversion approach is applied to infer soil thermal inertia. Field tests in the Arctic indicate that QTP measurements have a minimum uncertainty of 0.14 J m −2 K −1 s −1/2 and covary with dual-probe heat pulse thermal analyzer measurements (concordance correlation coefficient = 0.56) with a root-mean-square error of 0.40 J m −2 K −1 s −1/2 . Besides demonstrating the value of QTP for estimating thermal inertia, this study identifies various sources of measurement uncertainty, particularly probe-soil contact resistance and frictional heating. Further, analysis of soil samples indicates that thermal inertia can be used to estimate thermal conductivity and dry bulk density in the studied area, although such inferences are highly site-specific. Overall, the QTP method holds promise to generate thermal inertia data products and to complement other characterization approaches for advancing understanding of soil properties across far more locations than is currently possible.

Lamb, J. R. [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory↗
DOE OSTI2025

SAXS Assistant: Automated SAXS analysis for structural discovery in biologics and polymeric nanoparticles

Small-angle x-ray scattering (SAXS) is a powerful technique for assessing macromolecular structure. High-throughput SAXS is limited by the time-consuming and, at times, subjective nature of SAXS data interpretation. Here, we present SAXS Assistant, a Python-based script that streamlines SAXS data analysis to extract features for machine learning (ML) and key structural parameters, including the Guinier radius of gyration (R g ), pair distance distribution function (PDDF)-derived R g , maximum particle dimension (D max ), and Kratky plots. The script builds upon BioXTAS RAW and validates reliability via Guinier/PDDF R g agreement, an important indicator of well-measured data sets. For assistance in D max estimation, a multilayer perceptron regressor was trained with 1940 data files from the Small Angle Scattering Biological Data Bank. The model achieved a test set performance R 2 = 0.90 and mean absolute error = 11.7 Å. Training exclusively with experimental data translates analyses from researchers, including experts in the field, to the ML model, which helps assess D max estimations from PDDF. Gaussian mixture model clustering was implemented to classify profiles into structural classes based on entries in the Small Angle Scattering Biological Data Bank. Users may therefore assess the similarity between experimental samples and known biomolecular shapes within the mapped repository entries. This probabilistic clustering aids in quantifying information from Kratky and generating shape-descriptive features. SAXS Assistant accelerates SAXS data analysis through enforced quality control, ML-ready outputs, and flags for low-confidence results. In addition to providing the ability to analyze large data sets at high throughput, this tool is versatile and may serve researchers in both biological and synthetic polymer research fields.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Neural Posterior Estimation for Scalable and Accurate Inverse Parameter Inference in Li-Ion Batteries

Diagnosing the internal state of Li-ion batteries is critical for battery research, operation of real-world systems, and prognostic evaluation of remaining lifetime. By using physics-based models to perform probabilistic parameter estimation via Bayesian calibration, diagnostics can account for the uncertainty due to model fitness, data noise, and the observability of any given parameter. However, Bayesian calibration in Li-ion batteries using electrochemical data is computationally intensive even when using a fast surrogate in place of physics-based models, requiring many thousands of model evaluations. A fully amortized alternative is neural posterior estimation (NPE). NPE shifts the computational burden from the parameter estimation step to data generation and model training, reducing the parameter estimation time from minutes to milliseconds, enabling real-time applications. The present work shows that NPE can infer parameters equally or more accurately than Bayesian calibration, even if it leads to higher voltage reconstruction errors. We also demonstrate that the higher computational costs for data generation are tractable even in high-dimensional cases (ranging from 6 to 27 estimated parameters). The NPE method also offers several interpretability advantages over Bayesian calibration, such as local parameter sensitivity to specific regions of the voltage curve. The NPE method is demonstrated using an experimental fast charge dataset, with parameter estimates validated against measurements of loss of lithium inventory and loss of active material. The implementation is made available in a companion repository (https://github.com/NatLabRockies/BatFIT).

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Ensemble Kalman filter for data assimilation coupled with low-resolution computations techniques applied in fluid dynamics

This paper presents an innovative Reduced-order model (ROM) for merging experimental and simulation data using data assimilation (DA) to estimate the "True" state of a fluid dynamics system, leading to more accurate predictions. Our methodology introduces a novel approach by implementing the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) within a reduced-dimensional framework, grounded in a robust theoretical foundation and applied to fluid dynamics. To address the substantial computational demands of DA, the proposed ROM employs low-resolution (LR) techniques to drastically reduce computational costs. This innovative approach involves downsampling datasets for DA computations, followed by an advanced reconstruction technique based on low-cost singular value decomposition (lcSVD). The lcSVD method, a key innovation in this paper, has never been applied to DA before and offers a highly efficient way to enhance resolution with minimal computational resources. Our results demonstrate significant reductions in both computation time and RAM usage through these LR techniques without compromising the accuracy of the estimations. For instance, in a turbulent test case, for a data compression rate of 15.9, the LR approach can achieve a speed-up of 13.7 and a RAM compression of 90.9% while maintaining a low relative root mean square error (RRMSE) of 2.6%, compared to 0.8% in the high-resolution (HR) reference. Furthermore, we highlight the effectiveness of the EnKF in estimating and predicting the state of fluid flow systems based on limited observations and given low-fidelity numerical data. This paper highlights the potential of the proposed DA method in fluid dynamics applications, particularly for improving computational efficiency in CFD and related fields. Its ability to balance accuracy with low computational and memory costs makes it especially suitable for large-scale and real-time applications, such as environmental monitoring or engineering design. This method will be incorporated into ModelFLOWs-app.

Data Assimilation↗
DOE OSTI2025

Self-Supervised T-GCN for Detection of Disturbance and Propagation in Power Grid

Urban power systems increasingly rely on dense sensing to monitor grid reliability, yet disturbance labels are scarce and events are rare. We present a self-supervised spatio-temporal method that detects, localizes, and characterizes grid frequency disturbances across urban areas using only unlabeled data. Our approach trains a tiny Temporal Graph Convolutional Network (T-GCN) to forecast per-site frequency residuals (deviation from 60 Hz). The sensor graph is constructed directly from signals using pre-event Pearson correlation with a cross-correlation lag penalty without geocoding. At inference, node-level anomalies are the model's forecast errors; region-level alarms arise from connected components of high-score nodes. We estimate disturbance propagation by computing per-node arrival times (first persistent exceedance), then fit a planar or time-of-arrival model to obtain direction, speed, and an epicenter proxy. With only three real events collected at decisecond resolution across U.S. cities, we evaluate the T-GCN and report time-to-detect, footprint size, and propagation consistency. We further show that short-window embeddings from the T-GCN's hidden states enable few-shot event-vs-background recognition via a simple prototypical classifier. Despite minimal data and no labels, our system yields fast, spatially coherent detection and interpretable propagation maps, offering a practical, lightweight pathway to city-scale grid resilience analytics.

Niu, Haoran [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000155228297)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Methane Quantification Performance of the Quantitative Optical Gas Imaging (QOGI) System Using Single-Blind Controlled Release Assessment

Quantitative optical gas imaging (QOGI) system can rapidly quantify leaks detected by optical gas imaging (OGI) cameras across the oil and gas supply chain. A comprehensive evaluation of the QOGI system’s quantification capability is needed for the successful adoption of the technology. This study conducted single-blind experiments to examine the quantification performance of the FLIR QL320 QOGI system under near-field conditions at a pseudo-realistic, outdoor, controlled testing facility that mimics upstream and midstream natural gas operations. The study completed 357 individual measurements across 26 controlled releases and 71 camera positions for release rates between 0.1 kg Ch 4 /h and 2.9 kg Ch 4 /h of compressed natural gas (which accounts for more than 90% of typical component-level leaks in several production facilities). The majority (75%) of measurements were within a quantification factor of 3 (quantification error of –67% to 200%) with individual errors between –90% and 831%, which reduced to –79% to +297% when the mean of estimates of the same controlled release from multiple camera positions was considered. Performance improved with increasing release rate, using clear sky as plume background, and at wind speeds ≤1 mph relative to other measurement conditions.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

SpecDis: Value Added Distance Catalog for 4 Million Stars from DESI Year-1 Data

We present the SpecDis value-added stellar distance catalog accompanying DESI Data Release 1. SpecDis trains a feed-forward neural network (NN) with Gaia parallaxes and gets the distance estimates. To build up an unbiased training sample, we do not apply selections on parallax error or signal-to-noise (S/N) of the stellar spectra, and instead, we incorporate parallax error into the loss function. Moreover, we employ principal component analysis to reduce the noise and dimensionality of stellar spectra. Validated by independent external samples of member stars with precise distances from globular clusters, dwarf galaxies, stellar streams, combined with blue horizontal branch stars, we demonstrate that our distance measurements show no significant bias up to 100 kpc, and are much more precise than Gaia parallax beyond 7 kpc. The median distance uncertainties are 23%, 19%, 11%, and 7% for S/N < 20, 20 ≤ S/N < 60, 60 ≤ S/N < 100, and S/N ≥ 100. Selecting stars with ${\mathrm{log}}\,g\lt 3.8$ and distance uncertainties smaller than 25%, we have more than 74,000 giant candidates within 50 kpc of the Galactic center and 1500 candidates beyond this distance. Additionally, we develop a Gaussian mixture model to identify unresolvable equal-mass binaries by modeling the discrepancy between the NN-predicted and the geometric absolute magnitudes from Gaia parallaxes and identify 120,000 equal-mass binary candidates. Our final catalog provides distances and distance uncertainties for >4 million stars, offering a valuable resource for Galactic astronomy.

astronomy data analysis↗
DOE OSTI2025

Co-Firing Switchgrass and Waste Coal in A Power Plant: A Techno-Economic and Life Cycle Evaluation for The Ohio River Valley (SWITCH) (Final Technical Report for Ohio State/FE0032204)

Abandoned coal mine lands (AMLs) represent one of the most persistent environmental challenges in the United States. Prior to the enactment of the Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act (SMCRA) in 1977, coal mining operations were not legally required to reclaim disturbed lands, leaving behind approximately 500,000 AML sites nationwide. These sites pose severe environmental and health risks, including acid mine drainage, soil and water contamination, and spontaneous combustion of waste coal piles. Millions of Americans live within one mile of these AMLs, underscoring the urgency of remediation. Traditional reclamation practices, such as planting cool-season grasses, often fail to fully restore ecological function or leverage the economic potential of these lands. This project addressed these challenges by developing integrated strategies for resource recovery, land reclamation, and sustainable energy production. This project evaluated an integrated strategy to convert this liability into an opportunity by recovering waste coal and co-firing it with switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) cultivated on reclaimed or marginal AML areas in existing coal-fired power plants. Switchgrass not only provides a renewable feedstock but also aids in land reclamation and carbon sequestration. 1) Remote Sensing and Machine Learning for Waste Coal Identification Using Sentinel-2 satellite imagery and supervised classification, we applied four machine learning models to detect historical waste coal piles. Random Forest achieved the highest accuracy (precision: 86%, recall: 77%). Time-series analysis revealed gradual vegetation recovery since 1986, indicating natural reclamation processes in historical sites, while active mining areas showed ongoing disturbance. This workflow enables scalable monitoring and prioritization of reclamation efforts. 2) UAS-Based Stockpile Volume Estimation To quantify recoverable waste coal, we evaluated Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) equipped with Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) and multispectral sensors. Structure-from-Motion (SfM) photogrammetry combined with interpolated Digital Terrain Models (DTMs) achieved strong agreement with LiDAR reference volumes (Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) ≈147 m 3 , Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) ≈2%). Sensitivity analysis confirmed that spatial resolution significantly influences accuracy, emphasizing the need for high-resolution data for precise volume estimation. This approach offers a scalable, cost-effective, and accurate alternative to conventional ground-based surveys. 3) Switchgrass Cultivation for Bioenergy and Water Quality Improvement We assessed the hydrological and water quality impacts of converting AMLs to switchgrass production areas using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Results showed that converting 10% of the watershed area into the switchgrass production zone reduced streamflow by 3.1%, total suspended solids by 18.1%, total nitrogen by 7.6%, and total phosphorus by 6.2%, while achieving biomass yields of 8.6–9.2 metric tons per hectare. These findings highlight switchgrass as a dual-benefit strategy for land reclamation and bioenergy feedstock production. 4) Integrated Co-Firing and CCS for Carbon-Negative Power Generation We modeled co-firing scenarios using the Power Plant Flexible Model (PPFM) to evaluate plant efficiency, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and levelized cost of electricity (LCOE). Without carbon capture and storage (CCS), increasing switchgrass co-firing ratios reduced LCOE from $\$$150/MWh at 0% biomass to $\$$110/MWh at full substitution. Under CCS, costs remained higher (~$\$$250/MWh at 0% biomass) but decreased to $\$$200/MWh at 100% biomass, while enabling net-zero or carbon-negative electricity due to switchgrass sequestration benefits. Although CCS introduced efficiency penalties, pairing it with biomass co-firing offset these impacts and maximized climate benefits. Overall, optimizing co-firing ratios between 60-100%, supported by reliable logistics and storage strategies, emerged as a practical pathway to balance affordability, sustainability, and net-zero or negative GHG emissions while promoting productive reuse of AMLs.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2026

Early calendar life and health prediction of silicon batteries via machine learning with uncertainty quantification

Lithium-ion batteries with silicon anodes promise high energy density but are limited by calendar lifetime. Reducing the long iteration time to obtain experimental results requires predicting calendar lifetime early in a cell's life. In this study, we demonstrate that lightweight machine learning models with feature engineering can provide calendar lifetime estimates from early electrochemical signals. After 1 month of electrochemical aging, the best models achieve 10% error in calendar-life prediction and can separate "bad" from "good" lifetime cells with a mean F1 score of 0.857. As battery systems exhibit inherent variability, four methods for uncertainty quantification are compared, and confidence intervals are demonstrated with an uncertainty of +-3.6 months in lifetime prediction. A feature importance analysis indicates that early patterns in voltage decay are the strongest indicators of calendar lifetime. Finally, this modeling approach has high error when generalizing to new electrode chemistries or testing conditions but with appropriately low confidence.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Physical-mass calculation of ρ ( 770 ) and K * ( 892 ) resonance parameters via π π and K π scattering amplitudes from lattice QCD

We present our study of the ρ ( 770 ) and K * ( 892 ) resonances from lattice quantum chromodynamics (QCD) employing domain-wall fermions at physical quark masses. We determine the finite-volume energy spectrum in various momentum frames and obtain phase-shift parametrizations via the Lüscher formalism and as a final step the complex resonance poles of the π π and K π elastic scattering amplitudes via an analytical continuation of the models. By sampling a large number of representative sets of underlying energy-level fits, we also assign a systematic uncertainty to our final results. This is a significant extension to data-driven analysis methods that have been used in lattice QCD to date, due to the two-step nature of the formalism. Our final pole positions, M + i Γ / 2 , with all statistical and systematic errors exposed, are M K * = 893 ( 2 ) ( 8 ) ( 54 ) ( 2 ) MeV and Γ K * = 51 ( 2 ) ( 11 ) ( 3 ) ( 0 ) MeV for the K * ( 892 ) resonance and M ρ = 796 ( 5 ) ( 15 ) ( 48 ) ( 2 ) MeV and Γ ρ = 192 ( 10 ) ( 28 ) ( 12 ) ( 0 ) MeV for the ρ ( 770 ) resonance. The four differently grouped sources of uncertainties are, in the order of occurrence: statistical, data-driven systematic, an estimation of systematic effects beyond our computation (dominated by the fact that we employ a single lattice spacing), and the error from the scale-setting uncertainty on our ensemble. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

The DESI-Lensing Mock Challenge: large-scale cosmological analysis of 3x2-pt statistics

The current generation of large galaxy surveys will test the cosmological model by combining multiple types of observational probes. Realising the statistical promise of these new datasets requires rigorous attention to all aspects of analysis including cosmological measurements, modelling, covariance and parameter likelihood. In this paper we present the results of an end-to-end simulation study designed to test the analysis pipeline for the combination of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Year 1 galaxy redshift dataset and separate weak gravitational lensing information from the Kilo-Degree Survey, Dark Energy Survey and Hyper-Suprime-Cam Survey. Our analysis employs the 3x2-pt correlation functions including cosmic shear and galaxy-galaxy lensing, together with the projected correlation function of the spectroscopic DESI lenses. We build realistic simulations of these datasets including galaxy halo occupation distributions, photometric redshift errors, weights, multiplicative shear calibration biases and magnification. We calculate the analytical covariance of these correlation functions including the Gaussian, noise and super-sample contributions, and show that our covariance determination agrees with estimates based on the ensemble of simulations. We use a Bayesian inference platform to demonstrate that we can recover the fiducial cosmological parameters of the simulation within the statistical error margin of the experiment, investigating the sensitivity to scale cuts. This study is the first in a sequence of papers in which we present and validate the large-scale 3x2-pt cosmological analysis of DESI-Y1.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Benchmarking the performance of uncertainty quantification methods for neural network-based interatomic potentials

Machine-learned interatomic potentials (ML-IAPs) continue to gain popularity as accurate, computationally efficient replacements for traditional, physics-based interatomic potentials and expensive ab initio methods. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) of ML-IAPs is a growing area of research as UQ is critical in many applications of IAPs, such as developing curated datasets, active learning-based data augmentation, self-improving models, and estimating the uncertainty of molecular dynamics simulations. In this paper, we construct and benchmark a series of different neural network potentials (NNPs) with varying network architectures to determine the performance of these models with respect to both the mean and uncertainty calibration error. Each NNP method is specifically designed to predict either epistemic or aleatoric uncertainty with particular focus on the differences in behavior between the epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty estimates. We benchmark these methods using multiple datasets common in the ML-IAP literature. The results show that the aleatoric uncertainty from single-shot model architectures is a competitive alternative to ensemble-based epistemic uncertainty predictions in regions of sufficient data-density. However, in regions where the representative data is sparse, aleatoric uncertainty models tend to overpredict and epistemic methods tend to underpredict the actual model error. We conclude that the type of UQ is crucial when discussing performance of probabilistic model results as different methods have different performance characteristics depending on the regime in which they are evaluated. Therefore, the type of UQ method should be carefully evaluated against both the data characteristics and requirements for the intended application.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗