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At least 253 records · Page 14

Interball-1 Observations of Mantle FTEs

Flux transfer events (FTEs) are common on the Earth's dayside low- and mid-latitude magnetopause, where they tend to occur for southward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) orientations. "Direct" events exhibiting (+,-) bipolar signatures normal to the nominal magnetopause predominate at northern latitudes, whereas reverse events exhibiting (-,+) bipolar signatures normal to the nominal magnetopause predominate at southern latitudes. This paper reports Interball-1 magnetometer observations of reverse events on the high-latitude northern magnetopause and direct events on the high-latitude southern magnetopause. During one sequence of events, the sense of the bipolar signature normal to the nominal magnetopause reversed. In conjunction with the fact that most events occur when and where magnetosheath and magnetospheric magnetic field lie nearly antiparallel, the observations suggest that lobe events are generated locally on the high-latitude magnetopause.

Sibeck, D. G.↗

Transport in the Subtropical Lowermost Stratosphere during the Cirrus Regional Study of Tropical Anvils and Cirrus Layers-Florida Area Cirrus Experiment

We use in situ measurements of water vapor (H2O), ozone (O3), carbon dioxide (CO2), carbon monoxide (CO), nitric oxide (NO), and total reactive nitrogen (NOy) obtained during the CRYSTAL-FACE campaign in July 2002 to study summertime transport in the subtropical lowermost stratosphere. We use an objective methodology to distinguish the latitudinal origin of the sampled air masses despite the influence of convection, and we calculate backward trajectories to elucidate their recent geographical history. The methodology consists of exploring the statistical behavior of the data by performing multivariate clustering and agglomerative hierarchical clustering calculations and projecting cluster groups onto principal component space to identify air masses of like composition and hence presumed origin. The statistically derived cluster groups are then examined in physical space using tracer-tracer correlation plots. Interpretation of the principal component analysis suggests that the variability in the data is accounted for primarily by the mean age of air in the stratosphere, followed by the age of the convective influence, and last by the extent of convective influence, potentially related to the latitude of convective injection (Dessler and Sherwood, 2004). We find that high-latitude stratospheric air is the dominant source region during the beginning of the campaign while tropical air is the dominant source region during the rest of the campaign. Influence of convection from both local and nonlocal events is frequently observed. The identification of air mass origin is confirmed with backward trajectories, and the behavior of the trajectories is associated with the North American monsoon circulation.

Pittman, Jasna V.↗

A Queue Simulation Tool for a High Performance Scientific Computing Center

The NASA Center for Computational Sciences (NCCS) at the Goddard Space Flight Center provides high performance highly parallel processors, mass storage, and supporting infrastructure to a community of computational Earth and space scientists. Long running (days) and highly parallel (hundreds of CPUs) jobs are common in the workload. NCCS management structures batch queues and allocates resources to optimize system use and prioritize workloads. NCCS technical staff use a locally developed discrete event simulation tool to model the impacts of evolving workloads, potential system upgrades, alternative queue structures and resource allocation policies.

Spear, Carrie↗

NASA Products to Enhance Energy Utility Load Forecasting

Existing energy load forecasting tools rely upon historical load and forecasted weather to predict load within energy company service areas. The shortcomings of load forecasts are often the result of weather forecasts that are not at a fine enough spatial or temporal resolution to capture local-scale weather events. This project aims to improve the performance of load forecasting tools through the integration of high-resolution, weather-related NASA Earth Science Data, such as temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed. Three companies are participating in operational testing one natural gas company, and two electric providers. Operational results comparing load forecasts with and without NASA weather forecasts have been generated since March 2010. We have worked with end users at the three companies to refine selection of weather forecast information and optimize load forecast model performance. The project will conclude in 2012 with transitioning documented improvements from the inclusion of NASA forecasts for sustained use by energy utilities nationwide in a variety of load forecasting tools. In addition, Battelle has consulted with energy companies nationwide to document their information needs for long-term planning, in light of climate change and regulatory impacts.

Lough, G.↗

Synthetic Scenarios from CMIP5 Model Simulations for Climate Change Impact Assessments in Managed Ecosystems and Water Resources: Case Study in South Asian Countries

Increasing population, urbanization, and associated demand for food production compounded by climate change and variability have important implications for the managed ecosystems and water resources of a region. This is particularly true for south Asia, which supports one quarter of the global population, half of whom live below the poverty line. This region is largely dependent on monsoon precipitation for water. Given the limited resources of the developing countries in this region, the objective of our study was to empirically explore climate change in south Asia up to the year 2099 using monthly simulations from 35 global climate models (GCMs) participating in the fifth phase of the Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) for two future emission scenarios (representative concentration pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and provide a wide range of potential climate change outcomes. This was carried out using a three-step procedure: calculating the mean annual, monsoon, and non-monsoon precipitation and temperatures; estimating the percent change from historical conditions; and developing scenario funnels and synthetic scenarios. This methodology was applied for the entire south Asia region; however, the percent change information generated at 1.5deg grid scale can be used to generate scenarios at finer spatial scales. Our results showed a high variability in the future change in precipitation (-23% to 52%, maximum in the non-monsoon season) and temperature (0.8% to 2.1%) in the region. Temperatures in the region consistently increased, especially in the Himalayan region, which could have impacts including a faster retreat of glaciers and increased floods. It could also change rivers from perennial to seasonal, leading to significant challenges in water management. Increasing temperatures could further stress groundwater reservoirs, leading to withdrawal rates that become even more unsustainable. The high precipitation variability (with higher propensity for localized intense rainfall events) observed in the region can be a key factor for managed ecosystems and water management and could also lead to more incidence of severe urban flooding. The results could be used to assess both mitigation and adaptation alternatives to reduce vulnerabilities in managed ecosystems (agricultural and urban) and water resources.

agriculture↗

Dawn- Dusk Auroral Oval Oscillations Associated with High- Speed Solar Wind

We report evidence of global-scale auroral oval oscillations in the millihertz range, using global auroral images acquired from the Ultraviolet Imager on board the decommissioned Polar satellite and concurrent solar wind measurements. On the basis of two events (15 January 1999 and 6 January 2000) studied, it is found that (1) quasi-periodic auroral oval oscillations (approximately 3 megahertz) can occur when solar wind speeds are high at northward or southward interplanetary magnetic field turning, (2) the oscillation amplitudes range from a few to more than 10 degrees in latitudes, (3) the oscillation frequency is the same for each event irrespective of local time and without any azimuthal phase shift (i.e., propagation), (4) the auroral oscillations occur in phase within both the dawn and dusk sectors but 180 degrees out of phase between the dawn and dusk sectors, and (5) no micropulsations on the ground match the auroral oscillation periods. While solar wind conditions favor the growth of the Kelvin-Helmholtz (K-H) instability on the magnetopause as often suggested, the observed wave characteristics are not consistent with predictions for K-H waves. The in-phase and out-of-phase features found in the dawn-dusk auroral oval oscillations suggest that wiggling motions of the magnetotail associated with fast solar winds might be the direct cause of the global-scale millihertz auroral oval oscillations. Plain Language Summary: We utilize global auroral image data to infer the motion of the magnetosphere and show, for the first time, the entire magnetospheric tail can move east-west in harmony like a windsock flapping in wind. The characteristic period of the flapping motion may be a major source of global long-period ULF (Ultra Low Frequency) waves, adding an extra source of the global mode ULF waves.

Liou, Kan↗

Effect of Space Radiation on TES Detectors Performance

The Athena mission and its X-IFU instrument (X-ray Integral Field Unit) will be positioned at the Sun-Earth Lagrangian point L1, where it will be subject to solar wind (low flux plasma of 95% protons and 5% alpha particles) with energy below 0.1 MeV, and to galactic cosmic rays and solar flares (energetic protons, alpha particles, and electrons) with energies up to hundreds of MeV for protons and the GeV for heavier ions. Some of these particles will go through the satellite and hit the focal plane assembly and hence the detectors. These detectors will be TES (Transition-edge sensor) microcalorimeters, flown for the first time in such an environment. In order to ensure the performance of this type of detectors throughout the duration of such mission, it is critical to study the impact of the radiation on their behavior. Indeed, although a lot of reference material exist for semiconductor detectors such as CCDs, little is currently known about the impact of radiation on TES detectors. These energetic events could cause local heating or damage to the detectors and affect their performance. In this work, we describe how we designed a test campaign to assess the impact of L1 radiation on TES detectors for Athena/X-IFU-like missions and present the results of the tests. Analyses includes assessing changes in the pulse shapes and energy resolution of the detectors measured at 55 mK after several radiation dose steps performed at 4 K.

Sophie Beaumont↗

Data-Driven Method for Nonlinear Modal Interaction Identification in Fighter Aircraft

The purpose of this paper is to report a new data-driven analysis methodology for identifying nonlinear modal interactions and its application to aeroelastic wind-tunnel data from a generic fighter configuration, which reveals global modal interactions in this system caused by multiple resonance capture events initiated by local nonlinearities. It is shown that during supersonic testing at the Transonic Dynamics Tunnel, vibro-impacts at the embedded external fuel tank shakers on the inboard underwing stations of the generic fighter introduce strong nonlinearity that gives rise to nonlinear modal interactions. Specifically, time–frequency analysis of the acceleration data demonstrates that 6∶5 and 7∶6 transient resonance captures occur across the aircraft exclusively during this vibro-impact forcing window. Further analysis suggests that these resonance captures are dependent on Mach number. These results show experimentally that local vibro-impacts can cause global nonlinear effects in an aeroelastic system and that these effects can be identified using the new methodology herein. The data-driven analysis scheme employed shows applicability to full-aircraft flight test data for identifying nonlinear modal interactions without knowledge of the precise nonlinear contributors.

nonlinear dynamics↗

Characterizing major and trace element compositions in fallout melt glass from a near-surface nuclear test

We report the chemical and isotopic compositions of fallout melt glasses from nuclear tests contain a range of information constraining the physical conditions within the fireball and the mechanisms of fallout formation but historic studies tended to exclude the behavior of stable major and trace elements. Here, we present a large study specifically focused on major and trace element relationships within a population of macroscale fallout samples from a single event. We interpret these data to better constrain how fallout melt glass formation in near surface environments is influenced by that environment and demonstrate how major and trace element abundances can provide useful insights into chemical processes within the fireball. Data confirm that the uranium in the fallout glass population derives from two isotopically distinct endmembers: isotopically enriched uranium (presumably from the weapon), and natural composition uranium that may be a combination of anthropogenic and environmental materials from within the blast zone. The similarity between major and trace element concentrations in fallout and corresponding local soils from the event site confirm the local soils as the most probable source of entrained material into the fireball and the source of carrier material into which the bomb vapor was incorporated. The lack of correlation between major and trace element abundances with size indicates that volatility driven processes, such as condensation from the fireball, do not control the composition of macroscale fallout melt glass. Although the fallout has major and trace element chemical characteristics broadly similar to those of the local, associated soils, some systematic differences are observed between the two populations. Fallout melt glass is depleted in volatile elements such as K, Na, Tl and Pb, consistent with heating to temperatures above ~1000 °C for 3-10 s. This is supported by the results of laser heating experiments performed on rhyolitic soil at temperatures (1600-2200 °C) and timescales (1-120 s) that are broadly relevant to fallout formation conditions. Relative enrichments of metals such as Cu and Co do not correlate with the abundance of uranium, suggesting that fallout also records input of near field anthropogenic materials. Our observations suggest that major chemical features can be related to processing in the fireball and used to inform the thermal-chemical evolution of the system. Ultimately, these data are consistent with a fallout formation mechanism that involves rapid melting of surface materials to form carrier material melts with minor incorporation of bomb vapor and a degree of volumetric volatile loss due to heating.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

How many upper Eocene microspherule layers: More than we thought

The scientific controversy over the origin of upper Eocene tektites, microtektites and other microspherules cannot be logically resolved until it is determined just how many events are involved. The microspherule-bearing beds in marine sediments have been dated using standard biozonal techniques. Although a powerful stratigraphic tool, zonal biostratigraph has its limitations. One is that if an event, such as a microspherule occurrence, is observed to occur in a zone at one locality and then a similar event observed in the same zone at another locality, it still may be unwarranted to conclude that these events exactly correlate. To be in a zone a sample only need be between the fossil events that define the zone boundaries. It is often very difficult to accurately determine where within a zone one might be. Further, the zone defining events do not everywhere occur at the same points in time. That is, the ranges of the defining taxa are not always filled. Thus, the length of time represented by a zone (but not, of course, its chronozone) can vary from place to place. These problems can be offset by use of chronostratigraphic modelling techniques such as Graphic Correlation. This technique was used to build a Cretaceous and Cenozoic model containing fossil, magnetopolarity, and other events. The scale of the model can be demonstrated to be linear with time. This model was used to determine the chronostratigraphic position of upper Eocene microspherule layers.

Hazel, Joseph E.↗

Disruption event characterization and forecasting in tokamaks

Disruption prediction and avoidance is a critical need for next-step tokamaks, such as ITER. Disruption Event Characterization and Forecasting (DECAF) research fully automates analysis of tokamak data to determine chains of events that lead to disruptions and to forecast their evolution allowing sufficient time for mitigation or complete avoidance of the disruption. Disruption event chains related to local rotating or global magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) modes and vertical instability are examined with warnings issued for many off-normal physics events, including density limits, plasma dynamics, confinement transitions, and profile variations. Along with Greenwald density limit evaluation, a local radiative island power balance theory is evaluated and compared to the observation of island growth. Automated decomposition and analysis of rotating tearing modes produce physical event chains leading to disruptions. A total MHD state warning model comprised of 15 separate criteria produces a disruption forecast about 180 ms before a standard locked mode detector warning. Single DECAF event analyses have begun on KSTAR, MAST, and NSTX/-U databases with thousands of shot seconds of device operation using from 0.5 to 1 × 10 6 tested sample times per device. An initial multi-device database comparison illustrates a highly important result that plasma disruptivity does not need to increase as βN increases. Global MHD instabilities, such as resistive wall modes (RWMs), can give the briefest time period of warning before disruption compared to other physics events. In an NSTX database with unstable RWMs, the mode onset, loss of boundary and current control, and disruption event warnings are found in all cases and vertical displacement events are found in 91% of cases. An initial time-dependent reduced physics model of kinetic RWM stabilization created to forecast the disruption chain predicts instability 84% of the time for experimentally unstable cases with a relatively low false positive rate. Instances of the disruption event chain analysis illustrate dynamics including H–L back transitions for rotating MHD and global RWM triggering events. Furthermore, disruption warnings are issued with sufficient time before the disruption (on transport timescales) to potentially allow active profile control for disruption avoidance, active mode control, or mitigation.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Improving Detection of Disease Re-emergence Using a Web-Based Tool (RED Alert): Design and Case Analysis Study

Background: Currently, the identification of infectious disease re-emergence is performed without describing specific quantitative criteria that can be used to identify re-emergence events consistently. This practice may lead to ineffective mitigation. In addition, identification of factors contributing to local disease re-emergence and assessment of global disease re-emergence require access to data about disease incidence and a large number of factors at the local level for the entire world. This paper presents Re-emerging Disease Alert (RED Alert), a web-based tool designed to help public health officials detect and understand infectious disease re-emergence. Objective: Our objective is to bring together a variety of disease-related data and analytics needed to help public health analysts answer the following 3 primary questions for detecting and understanding disease re-emergence: Is there a potential disease re-emergence at the local (country) level? What are the potential contributing factors for this re-emergence? Is there a potential for global re-emergence? Methods: We collected and cleaned disease-related data (eg, case counts, vaccination rates, and indicators related to disease transmission) from several data sources including the World Health Organization (WHO), Pan American Health Organization (PAHO), World Bank, and Gideon. We combined these data with machine learning and visual analytics into a tool called RED Alert to detect re-emergence for the following 4 diseases: measles, cholera, dengue, and yellow fever. We evaluated the performance of the machine learning models for re-emergence detection and reviewed the output of the tool through a number of case studies. Results: Our supervised learning models were able to identify 82%-90% of the local re-emergence events, although with 18%-31% (except 46% for dengue) false positives. This is consistent with our goal of identifying all possible re-emergences while allowing some false positives. The review of the web-based tool through case studies showed that local re-emergence detection was possible and that the tool provided actionable information about potential factors contributing to the local disease re-emergence and trends in global disease re-emergence. Conclusions: To the best of our knowledge, this is the first tool that focuses specifically on disease re-emergence and addresses the important challenges mentioned above.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Plasma perturbations created by transverse ion heating events in the magnetosphere

The nature of plasma perturbations created by transverse ion heating in the auroral and polar region of the magnetosphere is investigated. The creation of the perturbations by transverse ion heating and their evolution are studied by solving a set of plasma transport equations along open flux tubes for geocentric altitudes not less than 9371 km/s. Both localized and extended heating events in space are considered. Both short- and long-duration heating events are studied as well. For localized heating, the perturbation in the density consists of a density cavity topped by a density bump. During the early stage the plasma in the bump is that expelled from the cavity by the mirror force. The flow velocity is enhanced over the entire perturbation. The dominant feature of the density perturbation produced by extended ion heating is the formation of a cavity expanding ever upward as long as the heating lasts. Inside the cavity and above it the perpendicular temperature and flow velocity are enhanced.

Singh, Nagendra↗

Structured plasma sheet thinning observed by Galileo and 1984-129

On December 8, 1990, the Galileo spacecraft used the Earth for a gravity assist on its way to Jupiter. Its trajectory was such that it crossed geosynchronous orbit at approximately local midnight between 1900 and 2000 UT. At the same time, spacecraft 1984-129 was also located at geosynchronous orbit near local midnight. Several flux dropout events were observed when the two spacecraft were in the near-Earth plasma sheet in the same local time sector. Flux dropout events are associated with plasma sheet thinning in the near-profile of the near-Earth plasma sheet while 1984-129 provided an azimuthal profile. With measurements from these two spacecraft we can distinguish between spatial structures and temporal change. Our observations confirm that the geosynchronous flux dropout events are consistent with plasma sheet thinning which changes the spacecraft's magnetic connection from the trapping region to the more distant plasma sheet. However, for this period, thinning occurred on two spatial and temporal scales. The geosynchronous dropouts were highly localized phenomena of 30 min duration superimposed on a more global reconfiguration of the tail lasting approximately 4 hours.

Reeves, G. D.↗

Detailed space–time variations of the seismic response of the shallow crust to small earthquakes from analysis of dense array data

SUMMARY We compute high-resolution space–time variations of subsurface seismic properties from autocorrelation functions (ACF’s) of noise and local earthquakes, recorded by the Sage Brush Flat dense array deployed around the Clark branch of the San Jacinto fault. The resolved temporal changes are referred to as apparent velocity changes because they reflect both nonlinear response and variations of material properties such as cracking and damage. Apparent velocity changes are estimated at four frequency bands (10–15, 10–20, 15–30 and 20–40 Hz) for two local earthquake data sets. In one analysis, ACF’s from P- and S-wave windows of 31 small events with magnitudes below 3.1 are used to compute the apparent velocity variations with respect to the mean ACF of each phase, and we also use the mean ACF of noise data as reference to estimate the changes. In a further analysis, the temporal evolution of properties is computed using moving time windows in continuous waveform over one-hour long data with noise and earthquake signals. The apparent velocity changes and recovery times are frequency dependent and present a strong spatial variability across the array. The resolved changes are larger and recovery time shorter with data associated with higher frequencies. At frequencies larger than 15 Hz, and using the mean ACF of noise data as a reference, the apparent average velocity changes across the array during the passage of the P and S waves from the small local events are 2.5 per cent and 6 per cent, respectively. The apparent velocity changes decrease by one order of magnitude when the earthquake data are used as a reference. The relatively large changes in response to very low ground motion have important implications on nonlinear processes involving degradation and healing of the subsurface material during common earthquake shaking.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

Characterizing Overwater High Ozone Events in the Houston–Galveston–Brazoria Region during the 2021 GO3 and TRACER-AQ Campaigns

Photochemical modeling outputs showing high ozone concentrations over the Gulf of Mexico and Galveston Bay during ozone episodes in the Houston–Galveston–Brazoria (HGB) region have not been previously verified using in situ observations. Such data were collected systematically, for the first time, from July to October 2021 from three boats deployed for the Galveston Offshore Ozone Observations (GO3) and Tracking Aerosol Convection Interactions Experiment—Air Quality (TRACER-AQ) field campaigns. A pontoon boat and a commercial vessel operated in Galveston Bay, while another commercial vessel operated in the Gulf of Mexico offshore of Galveston. All three boats had continuously operating sampling systems that included ozone analyzers and weather stations, and the two boats operating in Galveston Bay had a ceilometer. The sampling systems operated autonomously on the two commercial boats as they traveled their daily routes. Thirty-seven ozonesondes were launched over water on forecast high ozone days in Galveston Bay and the Gulf of Mexico. During the campaigns, multiple periods of ozone exceeding 100 ppbv were observed over water in Galveston Bay and the Gulf of Mexico. These events included previously identified conditions for high ozone events in the HGB region, such as the bay/sea-breeze recirculation and postfrontal environments, as well as a localized coastal high ozone event after the passing of a tropical system (Hurricane Nicholas) that was not well forecast.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Crres Observations of Particle Flux Dropout Events

The complete disappearance of energetic electrons was observed by CRRES in the near geosynchronous region in 7.5% of the orbits examined. These total flux dropouts were defined by the fluxes rapidly dropping to levels below the sensitivity of the MEA energetic electron spectrometer on the CRRES satellite. They were separated into those that were only energetic electron dropouts and those that were associated with energetic ion and plasma dropouts. Approximately 20% of the events showed dropouts of 0 particle fluxes, and these were usually coincident with large increases in the local magnetic intensity and signatures of strong current systems. The energetic particle instruments and magnetometer on CRRES provide a detailed picture of the particle and field responses to these unusual conditions. Both the local morning and dusk events were associated with strong azimuthal (eastward) and radial changes in the magnetic field indicative of a strong current system approaching and sometimes crossing the CRRES position at the time of the flux dropouts. The direction of the field changes and the details of particle observations are consistent with CRRES passing through the plasma sheet boundary layer and entering the tail lobe for a significant number of the events.

Fennell, J.↗

Real-time observation of toroidal current redistributions induced by three-dimensional MHD phenomena triggering vertical displacement events in tokamak plasmas

Three-dimensional MHD instabilities, including edge-localized modes (ELMs) and internal reconnection events (IREs), have been observed to precipitate loss of vertical stability in tokamak plasmas, resulting in vertical displacement events (VDEs). This vertical destabilization can occur due to toroidal current redistributions and/or shape changes resulting from these phenomena. Using a recently introduced method for rapidly reconstructing the two-dimensional toroidal plasma current density profile in real-time, results are presented that demonstrate the specific current distribution changes that occur during ELMs (on KSTAR) and IREs (on MAST-U) that lead to loss of vertical control. The method most efficiently reconstructs the toroidal current density profile by doing so on a basis of principal components of historical profiles. These principal components isolate dominant current profile dynamics, improving interpretability, increasing speed, and reducing dimensionality of the profile computation. On KSTAR, this computation is executed in the real-time plasma control system at a rate of 10 kHz (limited by available CPU cycle times), allowing the current profile evolution to be assessed at several times over the course of each ELM event. Further, by incorporating the reconstructions into a novel vertical stability metric, the contribution of specific current profile dynamics to the loss of vertical stability can be assessed in real-time for VDE avoidance and improved understanding of the causal relationship between three-dimensional MHD phenomena and VDEs. The success of this method in approximating toroidal current density profiles from kinetic equilibrium reconstructions is also presented ($R^2=0.990$), along with its capability to produce other equilibrium quantities of interest in real-time at high time resolution.

edge-localized modes↗