SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “extrapolation method”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 253 records · Page 14

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2020

A protocol for calculating basal melt rates in the ISMIP6 Antarctic ice sheet projections

Climate model projections have previously been used to compute ice shelf basal melt rates in ice sheet models, but the strategies employed – e.g., ocean input, parameterization, calibration technique, and corrections – have varied widely and are often ad hoc. Here, a methodology is proposed for the calculation of circum-Antarctic basal melt rates for floating ice, based on climate models, that is suitable for ISMIP6, the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project). The past and future evolution of ocean temperature and salinity is derived from a climate model by estimating anomalies with respect to the modern day, which are added to a present-day climatology constructed from existing observational datasets. Temperature and salinity are extrapolated to any position potentially occupied by a simulated ice shelf. A simple formulation is proposed for a basal melt parameterization in ISMIP6, constrained by the observed temperature climatology, with a quadratic dependency on either the nonlocal or local thermal forcing. Two calibration methods are proposed: (1) based on the mean Antarctic melt rate (MeanAnt) and (2) based on melt rates near Pine Island's deep grounding line (PIGL). Future Antarctic mean melt rates are an order of magnitude greater in PIGL than in MeanAnt. The PIGL calibration and the local parameterization result in more realistic melt rates near grounding lines. PIGL is also more consistent with observations of interannual melt rate variability underneath Pine Island and Dotson ice shelves. This work stresses the need for more physics and less calibration in the parameterizations and for more observations of hydrographic properties and melt rates at interannual and decadal timescales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

ELSI — An open infrastructure for electronic structure solvers

Routine applications of electronic structure theory to molecules and periodic systems need to compute the electron density from given Hamiltonian and, in case of non-orthogonal basis sets, overlap matrices. System sizes can range from few to thousands or, in some examples, millions of atoms. Different discretization schemes (basis sets) and different system geometries (finite non-periodic vs. infinite periodic boundary conditions) yield matrices with different structures. The ELectronic Structure Infrastructure (ELSI) project provides an open-source software interface to facilitate the implementation and optimal use of high-performance solver libraries covering cubic scaling eigensolvers, linear scaling density-matrix-based algorithms, and other reduced scaling methods in between. In this paper, we present recent improvements and developments inside ELSI, mainly covering (1) new solvers connected to the interface, (2) matrix layout and communication adapted for parallel calculations of periodic and/or spin-polarized systems, (3) routines for density matrix extrapolation in geometry optimization and molecular dynamics calculations, and (4) general utilities such as parallel matrix I/O and JSON output. The ELSI interface has been integrated into four electronic structure code projects (DFTB+, DGDFT, FHI-aims, SIESTA), allowing us to rigorously benchmark the performance of the solvers on an equal footing. Based on results of a systematic set of large-scale benchmarks performed with Kohn–Sham density-functional theory and density-functional tight-binding theory, we identify factors that strongly affect the efficiency of the solvers, and propose a decision layer that assists with the solver selection process. As a result, we describe a reverse communication interface encoding matrix-free iterative solver strategies that are amenable, e.g., for use with planewave basis sets.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Advancing quantum simulations of the nuclear shell model with Gray-code–based resource-efficient protocols

Background: Some of the computational limitations in solving the nuclear many-body problem could be overcome by utilizing quantum computers. The nuclear shell-model calculations providing deeper insights into the properties of atomic nuclei are one such case with high demand for resources, as the size of the Hilbert space grows exponentially with the number of particles involved. Quantum algorithms are being developed to overcome these challenges and advance such calculations. Purpose: To develop quantum circuits for the nuclear shell-model, leveraging the capabilities of noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) devices. Here, we aim to minimize resource requirements (specifically in terms of qubits and gates) and strive to reduce the impact of noise by employing relevant mitigation techniques. Methods: We achieve noise resilience by designing an optimized Ansatz for the variational quantum eigensolver (VQE) based on Givens rotations and incorporating qubit-ADAPT-VQE in combination with variational quantum deflation (VQD) to compute ground and excited states, incorporating the zero-noise extrapolation mitigation technique. Furthermore, the qubit requirements are significantly reduced by mapping the basis states to qubits using Gray-code encoding and generalizing transformations of fermionic operators to efficiently represent many-body states. Results: By employing the resource-efficient protocols, we achieve the ground and excited state energy levels of 38 Ar and 6 Li with better accuracy. These energy levels are presented for noiseless simulations, noisy conditions, and after applying noise mitigation techniques. Results are compared for Jordan-Wigner and Gray-code encoding using VQE, qubit-ADAPT-VQE, and VQD. Conclusions: Our work highlights the potential of resource-efficient protocols to leverage the full potential of NISQ devices in scaling the nuclear shell model calculations, offering a pathway toward more complex quantum simulations in nuclear physics. This approach establishes a framework for studying other nuclear systems with improved quantum resource efficiency, marking a significant advancement in applying quantum computing to realistic nuclear physics applications.

Physics - Nuclear physics and radiation physics↗

DOE OSTI2023

Neural network ensembles and uncertainty estimation for predictions of inelastic mechanical deformation using a finite element method-neural network approach

The finite element method (FEM) is widely used to simulate a variety of physics phenomena. Approaches that integrate FEM with neural networks (NNs) are typically leveraged as an alternative to conducting expensive FEM simulations in order to reduce the computational cost without significantly sacrificing accuracy. However, these methods can produce biased predictions that deviate from those obtained with FEM, since these hybrid FEM-NN approaches rely on approximations trained using physically relevant quantities. In this work, an uncertainty estimation framework is introduced that leverages ensembles of Bayesian neural networks to produce diverse sets of predictions using a hybrid FEM-NN approach that approximates internal forces on a deforming solid body. The uncertainty estimator developed herein reliably infers upper bounds of bias/variance in the predictions for a wide range of interpolation and extrapolation cases using a three-element FEM-NN model of a bar undergoing plastic deformation. This proposed framework offers a powerful tool for assessing the reliability of physics-based surrogate models by establishing uncertainty estimates for predictions spanning a wide range of possible load cases.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

A hybrid calorimetry-simulation model of mixing enthalpy for molten salt

Calorimetric determination of enthalpies of mixing (ΔH mix ) in multicomponent molten salts is often interpreted using empirical models that lack physically meaningful parameters. However, for improving pyrochemical separation of spent nuclear fuel, where lanthanides are major fission products and critical elements, a deeper thermodynamic understanding of the link between excess thermodynamic properties and solvation structure is critically needed. In this work, we implement a hybrid and physics-informed framework, MIVM+Calorimetry+AIMD, which integrates experimentally measured ΔH mix (via high temperature drop calorimetry) with solvation structures from ab initio molecular dynamics (AIMD). This approach is demonstrated using LaCl 3 mixed with eutectic LiCl-KCl (58 mol% – 42 mol%) at 873 K and 1133 K. MIVM-derived parameters enable extrapolation of excess Gibbs energy and La 3+ activity across compositions. In contrast, direct ΔH mix predictions from AIMD and polarizable ion model simulations deviate significantly. By incorporating experimentally benchmarked solvation structures into an interpretable thermodynamic model, the MIVM+Calorimetry+AIMD formalism achieves higher accuracy and generalizable method for studying molten salts, offering a robust path for understanding and optimizing molten salt chemistry relevant to nuclear fuel cycles and separation science.

Goncharov, Vitaliy G. [Washington State Univ., Pul↗

DOE OSTI2025

Challenges in spatial metabolomics and proteomics for functional tissue unit and single-cell resolution

While transcriptomics is the most broadly applied technology for global spatial and single cell measurements in healthy and diseased tissues. Transcripts are often used as a proxy for protein and even metabolite measurements, but it has become commonly accepted that extrapolating this kind of information is a poor proxy and not a substitute for direct measurement. Within the last decade advanced developments of mass spectrometry-based assays have made these direct measurements not only possible, but routine. Where mass spectrometry has become an enabling technology, and various methods can now detect hundreds of metabolites and thousands of proteins from samples. Not only can this be performed within bulk measurements, but much effort has been directed into translating these measurements to single cells and tissues at cellular resolution. The information obtained from mass spectrometry is now able to trace metabolic events and decipher feedback loops across anatomical regions, connecting genetic and metabolic networks that define phenotypes. Herein, we will broadly overview developments in the field over the past decade, leading into several case studies which highlight the direct measurement of metabolites, proteins, and proteoforms from thinly sliced tissues. Much of this work is feasible due to multidisciplinary team science, and we offer brief perspective on paths forward and the challenges that persist with adoption and application of spatial omics.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Searching for Neutrino Tridents in the NOvA Near Detector

This dissertation presents a search for neutrino trident production in the NOvA near detector through the coherent ``dimuon" channel: $\nu_\mu +\hspace{1pt}\text{X} \rightarrow \nu_\mu + \mu^- + \mu^+ +\hspace{1pt}\text{X}$. Trident production is a rare, purely electroweak process with sensitivity to physics beyond the Standard Model. The theoretical background, motivation for studying the process, and previous experimental measurements are reviewed. The analysis uses data collected by the NOvA near detector (ND) from Fermilab's Neutrinos at the Main Injector (NuMI) beam between November 2014 and February 2024, corresponding to an exposure of $25.5\times 10^{20}$ protons on target. The ND is a segmented tracking calorimeter located 800~m from the beam target, receiving neutrinos with a mean energy of 2~GeV. A multi-pass background reduction strategy is implemented, including the development of a novel dimuon-specific tracking technique. Trident candidates are identified using a boost ed decision tree classifier trained on simulated signal and background events. Limited background Monte Carlo statistics necessitate the use of functional fits to sideband data, which are extrapolated to estimate backgrounds in the signal region. The unblinded data contain 9 trident-like events, with an estimated background of 5.66 $\pm$ 5.15 events. This yields a best fit estimate of 3.34 tridents compared to the Standard Model prediction of 4.66. A profiled Feldman-Cousins method is used to determine a 90\% confidence interval of [0,9.1] on the number of signal events, corresponding to an upper limit of 1.95$\times$ the Standard Model prediction. This result represents the lowest energy search for trident events to date, and the first experimental contribution to the process in 27 years.

Bowles, Reed Scott [Indiana U.]↗

DOE OSTI2026

Added value of site load measurements in probabilistic lifetime extension: a Lillgrund case study

Site-specific fatigue estimation is an essential part of wind turbine lifetime extension, with various methods depending on data availability. The present study compares probabilistic lifetime extension assessment results for rotor blades with and without load measurements. It also addresses two key questions in such assessments: the applicability of the Frandsen model for estimating waked turbulence under complex and mixed wake conditions and the extrapolation of mid-term data over longer time periods. The case study wind turbine is SWT-2.3-93, located at the edge of the Lillgrund wind farm, situated in the Øresund Strait between Denmark and Sweden. The turbine is extensively instrumented, with 5 years of data available from its supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) system. Although the Frandsen turbulence estimates deviate in a different manner from measurements at below- and above-rated mean wind speeds, the model remains a conservative approach for fatigue load prediction and reliability. In the current case study, the site-specific assessment using strain gauge measurements yields a 33 % higher annual fatigue reliability index after 35 years compared to a scenario based on the Frandsen estimation combined with ambient environmental data and a generic aeroelastic model. The results also demonstrate that the sensitivity of fatigue reliability to load uncertainty is negligible when load measurements are used directly but relatively high when relying on the Frandsen model in combination with a generic aeroelastic model. Overall, the high variability of the lifetime extension in different scenarios of data availability and accuracy shows the importance and added value of high-quality measurements combined with wind-farm-level SCADA and a model updated in real time (digital twins).

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Reaction Profiles and Kinetics for Radical–Radical Hydrogen Abstraction via Multireference Coupled Cluster Theory

Radical-radical abstractions in hydrocarbon oxidation chemistry are disproportionation reactions that are generally exothermic with little or no barrier yet are underappreciated and poorly studied. Such challenging multireference electronic structure problems are tackled here using the recently developed state-specific multireference coupled cluster methods Mk-MRCCSD and Mk-MRCCSD(T), as well as the companion perturbation theory Mk-MRPT2 and the established MRCISD, MRCISD+Q, and CASPT2 approaches. Reaction paths are investigated for five prototypes involving radical-radical hydrogen abstraction: H + BeH → H 2 + Be, H + NH 2 → H 2 + NH, CH 3 + C 2 H 5 → CH 4 + C 2 H 4 , H + C2H 5 → H 2 + C 2 H 4 , and H + HCO → H 2 + CO. Full configuration interaction (FCI) benchmark computations for the H + BeH, H + NH 2 , and H + HCO reactions prove that Mk-MRCCSD(T) provides superior accuracy for the interaction energies in the entrance channel, with mean absolute errors less than 0.3 kcal mol(-1) and percentage deviations less than 10% over the fragment separations of relevance to kinetics. To facilitate combustion studies, energetics for the CH 3 + C 2 H 5 , H + C 2 H 5 , and H + HCO reactions were computed at each level of theory with correlation-consistent basis sets (cc-pVXZ, X = T, Q 5) and extrapolated to the complete basis set (CBS) limit. These CBS energies were coupled with CASPT2 projected vibrational frequencies along a minimum energy path to obtain rate constants for these three reactions. The rigorous Mk-MRCCSD(T)/CBS results demonstrate unequivocally that these three reactions proceed with no barrier in the entrance channel, contrary to some earlier predictions. Mk-MRCCSD(T) also reveals that the economical CASPT2 method performs well for large interfragment separations but may deteriorate substantially at shorter distances.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

Machine-Learning Assisted Identification of Battery Life Models

Predictive battery life models are commonly utilized to extrapolate degradation trends observed during accelerated aging tests for simulation of degradation in real-world applications. Thus, fitting accelerated aging data as accurately as possible and with low uncertainty is crucial for making believable projections of battery lifetime, but it is challenging to identify algebraic expressions that accurately fit multivariate degradation trends. A review of models published in literature reveal some common expressions for fitting calendar aging data, which is only dependent on temperature and state-of-charge, but no consistency across many models for fitting cycle aging data, indicating the need for a statistically rigorous data driven approach for developing empirical models. This talk will describe a machine-learning assisted method for identification of predictive battery life models utilizing bilevel optimization and symbolic regression. Bilevel optimization with cross-validation is used to statistically determine cell- and stress-dependent model parameters, while symbolic regression identifies both linear and multiplicative candidate expressions to predict stress-dependent degradation rates by selecting low-order subsets of features from a generated feature library. Because model expressions are identified empirically, it is crucial to ensure resulting models behave according to physical expectations, so the stability of models for interpolation or extrapolation is interrogated qualitatively through simulation and quantitatively through cross-validation and uncertainty quantification via bootstrap resampling. This model identification approach substantially improves upon models identified purely using expert judgement in terms of both accuracy and uncertainty. Model simulation and validation is then conducted by deriving a state-equation form of the predictive model, enabling simulation of battery aging under dynamic stresses. This enables validation of the predictive battery model on lab-based tests with varying conditions or on drive-cycle or application-cycle testing protocols. Parameter uncertainty can be carried forward into model simulation, giving lifetime estimates and confidence windows for cell- or system-level lifetime. The financial impact of battery model uncertainty can be estimated by incorporating uncertainty into a technoeconomic model.

battery↗

DOE OSTI2022

Effects of Serum and Compound Preparation Methods on Delayed Repolarization Evaluation With Human iPSC-CMs

Abstract Human induced pluripotent stem cell-derived cardiomyocytes (hiPSC-CMs) have been widely used in the Comprehensive in vitro Proarrhythmia Assay (CiPA). The notable difference of the electrophysiological (EP) responses of hiPSC-CMs in serum and serum-free media (SFM) is puzzling and may impact regulatory decision-making on the cardiac safety of candidate drugs in inducing QT prolongation and torsade de pointes (TdP). In this study, we compared the EP responses of hiPSC-CMs to 10 CiPA compounds and moxifloxacin in serum and SFM; explained the potential reason behind the different EP responses—abiotic compound loss to plastic tubes/plates of hydrophobic compounds prepared in SFM; and investigated the impact of compound preparation methods on drug bioavailability in exposure media, which affects the TdP risk prediction of drugs tested in serum-containing and SFM. For assays to be conducted in SFM, awareness of abiotic compound loss of hydrophobic compounds in serum-free preparations is critical for delay repolarization evaluation and data extrapolation from in vitro to in vivo.

Toxicology↗

DOE OSTI2025

Data-driven organic solubility prediction at the limit of aleatoric uncertainty

Abstract Small molecule solubility is a critically important property which affects the efficiency, environmental impact, and phase behavior of synthetic processes. Experimental determination of solubility is a time- and resource-intensive process and existing methods for in silico estimation of solubility are limited by their generality, speed, and accuracy. This work presents two models derived from the FASTPROP and CHEMPROP architectures and trained on BigSolDB which are capable of predicting solubility at arbitrary temperatures for a wide range of small molecules in organic solvent. Both extrapolate to unseen solutes 2–3 times more accurately than the current state-of-the-art model and we demonstrate that they are approaching the aleatoric limit (0.5–1$$\log S$$ log S ) of available test data, suggesting that further improvements in prediction accuracy require more accurate datasets. The FASTPROP-derived model (called FASTSOLV) and the CHEMPROP-based model are open source, freely accessible via a Python package and web interface, highly reproducible, and up to 2 orders of magnitude faster than current alternatives.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

DOE OSTI2024

Perfectly Matched Layers and Characteristic Boundaries in Lattice Boltzmann: Accuracy vs Cost

Artificial boundary conditions (BCs) play a ubiquitous role in numerical simulations of transport phenomena in several diverse fields, such as fluid dynamics, electromagnetism, acoustics, geophysics, and many more. They are essential for accurately capturing the behavior of physical systems whenever the simulation domain is truncated for computational efficiency purposes. Ideally, an artificial BC would allow relevant information to enter or leave the computational domain without introducing artifacts or unphysical effects. Boundary conditions designed to control spurious wave reflections are referred to as nonreflective boundary conditions (NRBCs). Another approach is given by the perfectly matched layers (PMLs), in which the computational domain is extended with multiple dampening layers, where outgoing waves are absorbed exponentially in time. Here, in this work, the definition of PML is revised in the context of the lattice Boltzmann method. The impact of adopting different types of BCs at the edge of the dampening zone is evaluated and compared, in terms of both accuracy and computational costs. It is shown that for sufficiently large buffer zones, PMLs allow stable and accurate simulations even when using a simple zeroth-order extrapolation BC. Moreover, employing PMLs in combination with NRBCs potentially offers significant gains in accuracy at a modest computational overhead, provided the parameters of the BC are properly tuned to match the properties of the underlying fluid flow.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

ANALYSIS OF SUITABLE METHODOLOGIES FOR COMPRESSOR MASS FLOW RATE CORRECTION TO OTHER SUPERHEAT LEVELS AND REFRIGERANTS

This paper investigates the impact of suction conditions and refrigerant on scroll compressor mass flow rate by using calorimeter tests from AHRI-11 and AHRI-21 reports, published by AHRI's Low-GWP Alternative Refrigerants Evaluation program. Two Copeland scroll compressors (20 and 51 cm3) have been analyzed including different suction conditions (SH = 11K, SH = 22K, Ti = 18ºC) and several refrigerants (R134a, R32, R410A, R404A, etc.). Previous studies have explored response surfaces for energy consumption and mass flow rate variables. This study aims to expand the analysis by identifying the optimal approach to extrapolate mass flow rate from specific suction conditions to others SH or suction temperature levels and refrigerants. The current compressor characterization standard relies on the 1981 Dabiri correlation to correct compressor mass flow rate with suction conditions. Thus, this study aims to assess the adequacy of this correction and explore alternative correction methods for improved results.

Marchante Avellaneda, Javier↗

DOE OSTI2020

Beyond the proton drip line: Bayesian analysis of proton-emitting nuclei

The limits of the nuclear landscape are determined by nuclear binding energies. Beyond the proton drip lines, where the separation energy becomes negative, there is not enough binding energy to prevent protons from escaping the nucleus. Predicting properties of unstable nuclear states in the vast territory of proton emitters poses an appreciable challenge for nuclear theory as it often involves far extrapolations. In addition, significant discrepancies between nuclear models in the proton-rich territory call for quantified predictions. With the help of Bayesian methodology, we mix a family of nuclear mass models corrected with statistical emulators trained on the experimental mass measurements, in the proton-rich region of the nuclear chart. Separation energies were computed within nuclear density functional theory using several Skyrme and Gogny energy density functionals. We also considered mass predictions based on two models used in astrophysical studies. Quantified predictions were obtained for each model using Bayesian Gaussian processes trained on separation-energy residuals and combined via Bayesian model averaging. Here, we obtained a good agreement between averaged predictions of statistically corrected models and experiment. In particular, we quantified model results for one- and two-proton separation energies and derived probabilities of proton emission. This information enabled us to produce a quantified landscape of proton-rich nuclei. The most promising candidates for two-proton decay studies have been identified. Finally, the methodology used in this work has broad applications to model-based extrapolations of various nuclear observables. It also provides a reliable uncertainty quantification of theoretical predictions.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

A review of cladding failure thresholds in RIA conditions based on transient reactor test data and the need for continued testing

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2022

A review of cladding failure thresholds in RIA conditions based on transient reactor test data and the need for continued testing

Transient reactor experiments on light water reactor (LWR) fuel pins had been conducted since the beginning of the nuclear era to help determine core coolability and cladding failure thresholds. During one such test in November of 1993 at the CABRI transient test reactor on a test involving a high burnup fuel rod with a corroded Zircaloy-4 cladding it was first observed that cladding failures could occur prior to a departure from nucleate boiling (pre-DNB) at lower-than-expected peak radial average enthalpies. Thirteen additional tests would be performed in the CABRI reactor over the next decade on fuel rods with higher burnups [1]. Additionally, a larger testing program at the NSRR reactor in Japan with high burnup fuel would uncover a similar trend of pre-DNB ruptures in high burnup test rods at lower-than-expected peak enthalpies [2]. Numerous out of pile testing programs involving a variety of innovative mechanical testing techniques have been employed in an attempt to better quantify the failure thresholds of corroded zirconium alloy cladding in these rapid heating and loading conditions [3][4][5]. While previously interim guidance had been issued, in June of 2020 the NRC officially published updated regulatory guidance to account of these pre-DNB failures in Regulatory Guide 1.236 [6]. This paper will present an independent review of the publicly available transient reactor test database on higher burnup LWR pins conducted at the CABRI and NSRR reactors as well as review of a selection of published out of pile mechanical testing methods. The purpose of the review is to determine how well the new regulatory limits are supported by experimental data. The review will identify if additional transient reactor tests could provide additional support for the NRC guidance or identify the need for revisions. The evaluation will consider how far the existing database can be extrapolated when considering low hydrogen zirconium alloy claddings (with and without protective coatings) containing very high burnup (> 70 MWd/kgU) UO2 fuel pellets. Finally, the authors will suggest how out of pile mechanical tests can be used in conjunction with a limited number of transient reactor tests to develop cladding specific failure thresholds in RIA type transients.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Temperature Uncertainty Modeling with Proxy Structural Data as Geostatistical Constraints for Well Siting: An Example Applied to Granite Springs Valley, NV, USA

Utilizing existing temperature and structural information around Granite Springs Valley, Nevada, we build 3D stochastic temperature models with the aim of evaluating the 3D uncertainty of temperature and choosing between candidate exploration well locations . The data used to support the modeling are measured temperatures and structural proxies from 3D geologic modeling, the latter considered "secondary" data. Two stochastic geostatistical techniques are explored for incorporating the structural proxies: cosimulation and local varying mean. With both the cosimulation and local varying mean methods, many equally likely temperature models (i.e., realizations) are produced, from which temperature probability profiles are calculated at candidate well locations. To aid in choosing between the candidate locations, two quantities summarize the temperature probabilities: Vprior and entropy. Vprior quantifies the likelihood for economic temperatures at each candidate location, whereas entropy identifies where new information has the most potential to reduce uncertainty. In general, the cosimulation realizations have smoother spatial structure, and extrapolate high temperatures at candidate locations that are located along the direction of the longest spatial correlation, which are down dip from existing temperature logs. The smooth realizations result in tight temperature probability profiles that are easier to interpret, but they have unrealistic temperature reversals in some locations because the cosimulation technique does not enforce a conductive geothermal gradient as a baseline (i.e., linearly increasing temperature with depth). The local varying mean results produce realizations with more realistic geothermal gradients, with temperatures increasing downward since a depth-temperature relationship is included. However, because they have much noisier spatial nature compared to cosimulation, it is harder to interpret the temperature probability profiles. The different local varying mean results allow the geologist to determine which proxy (e.g., dilation versus distance to fault termination) should be used given the specific geothermal system. In general, Vprior from local varying mean results identify locations that are close to high values for the structural proxies: areas with highe r probabilities for higher temperatures. The entropy results identify where uncertainty is greatest and therefore new drilling information could be most useful. Though these techniques provide useful information, even when applied to areas of sparse data, our comp arison of these two techniques demonstrates the need for new geothermal geostatistics techniques that combine the advantages of these two methods and that are tailored to the spatial uncertainty issues inherent in geothermal exploration.

3D temperature modeling↗