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At least 253 records · Page 14

Weather effects on the lifecycle of U.S. Department of Defense equipment replacement (WELDER)

Extreme weather has a direct and significant impact on buildings and infrastructure, resulting in billions of dollars of damage each year. This problem continues to grow as climate patterns change and buildings are exposed to new and different hazards than what they were designed to withstand. In order to better plan for the long-range sustainment, restoration, modernization, and eventual recapitalization of these buildings, organizations with large building portfolios, such as the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD), must have an awareness of the risks that these extreme weather events present. This research aimed to develop an approach to estimate condition loss and reduction in service life for the components of a building due to extreme weather hazards, to understand the risks that may be present in certain buildings and building systems. To achieve this objective, a damage association matrix was developed that categorizes climate hazards, the damage modes that they produce, and the individual component types impacted. This damage matrix formally links state-of-the-art climate model output, which provides projections of the probability of various climate hazards with a damage effects model that quantifies the consequence on component-level condition and service life. This method is applied to an actual portfolio of buildings in a particular geographic location and with a pre-defined component inventory that comprises the building. This approach can be aggregated to the system-, facility-, and site-level thus helping support billions of dollars in recapitalization decisions related to restoration/modernization of facilities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Critical Knowledge Gaps for Coastal Systems: Research Priorities for Coastal Regions of the Southeastern United States

Coastal watersheds and shorelines are home to 52% of the U.S. population and provide trillions of dollars of economic and ecosystem services each year. However, these regions are subject to increasing frequency and intensity of compounding hazards that generate substantial damages. Sea level rise is increasing flooding and salinization of low-lying areas; periodic storm surges push ocean water farther inland and increase salinity in freshwater resources. Changing weather patterns, water management, and land cover all affect water and sediment flow to the coast in ways that exacerbate extreme flooding and drought. These impacts eventually drive systems past tipping points and lead to rapid and often irreversible transformation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Chemical constraints on the evolution of Archean continental crust

One of the challenges of Archean geochronology is to find isotopic systems that preserve an indication of a rock's primary age in spite of the effects of later metamorphism. Zircon dating has been used widely with considerable success but not without difficulty, especially in polymetamorphic terrains. Zircons in such cases commonly are found to have lost radiogenic Pb, and despite fractionizing the zircons or abrading them to remove disturbed portions; it often is not possible to define a pattern of Pb loss from which the original age can confidently be inferred. The refinement of techniques to enable extremely small samples, or even single crystals, to be analyzed has contributed greatly to solving the problem but even those techniques cannot resolve the micron scale isotopic heterogeneities within single zircons in which much of their history is recorded. That can only be done by ion microprobe. Progress reports on studies of four Archean rocks, each of which illustrates the power and potential of ion microprobe analysis in solving problems of Archean geochronology are discussed.

Weaver, B. L.↗

Volcanism, global catastrophe and mass mortality

The effects of very large volcanic eruptions are well documented in many studies, mostly based on observations made on three historic eruptions, Laki 1783; Tambora 1815 and Krakatau 1883. Such eruptions have effects that are catastrophic locally and measurable globally, but it is not clear that even the largest volcanic eruptions have had global catastrophic effects, nor caused mass extinctions. Two different types of volcanic eruption were considered as likely to have the most serious widespread effects: large silicic explosive eruptions producing hundreds or thousands of cubic kilometers of pyroclastic materials, and effusive basaltic eruptions producing of approximately 100 cubic kilometers of lava. In both cases, the global effects are climatic, and attributable to production of stratospheric aerosols. Other possibilities need to be explored. Recent research on global change has emphasized the extreme sensitivity of the links between oceanic circulation, atmospheric circulation and climate. In particular, it was argued that the pattern of ocean current circulation (which strongly influences climate) is unstable; it may rapidly flip from one pattern to a different one, with global climatic consequences. If volcanism has been a factor in global environmental change and a cause of mass extinctions, it seems most likely that it has done so by providing a trigger to other processes, for example by driving oceanic circulation from one mode to another.

Francis, P. W.↗

Occultation of a compact radio source by Venus

An occultation of the compact radio source P 0507+17 by Venus on 19 Jul. 1988, was observed in Tidbinbilla, Australia at a frequency of 2.3 GHz. The purpose of this observation was to measure the position of Venus in the radio reference frame. When data from both ingress (Venus dayside) and egress (Venus nightside) were used to solve for the position of Venus in ecliptic longitude and latitude, the results were consistent with zero offsets from the nominal values, with an uncertainty of approximately 0.2 arcsec in both coordinates. By using the nightside data alone, a value of -0.026 +/- 0.04 arcsec was obtained for the linear combination delta(lambda) + 0.51delta(beta), where delta(lambda) and delta(beta) were the offsets from their nominal values of the ecliptic longitude and latitude of Venus. Distortion of a vacuum Fresnel fringe pattern by the Venus troposphere, and especially by the Venus ionosphere, was observed. The dayside ionosphere of Venus caused very large distortions; the amplitude of the first Fresnel fringe in the ingress data was eight times larger than was expected for an airless planet. The observed fringe patterns were modeled by using plausible ionospheres (i.e., consistent with spacecraft measurements of the Venus ionosphere and with solar extreme ultraviolet flux and solar wind pressure measurements at the occultation epoch). However, the range of Venus ionospheric profiles (electron density as a function of altitude) allowed by a priori constraints and by the occultation data was large (e.g., the ionopause height on the dayside was uncertain by a factor of two). This ionospheric uncertainty (particularly on the dayside) translated into a large position uncertainty (0.2 arcsec for the dayside and 0.04 arcsec for the nightside). If it was possible to calibrate the Venus ionosphere by some external means, the accuracy in delta(lambda) and delta(beta) would have been 0.01 arcsec or better.

Linfield, R.↗

Bending Tests of Circular Cylinders of Corrugated Aluminum-alloy Sheet

Bending tests were made of two circular cylinders of corrugated aluminum-alloy sheet. In each test failure occurred by bending of the corrugations in a plane normal to the skin. It was found, after analysis of the effect of short end bays, that the computed stress on the extreme fiber of a corrugated cylinder is in excess of that for a flat panel of the same basic pattern and panel length tested as a pin-ended column. It is concluded that this increased strength was due to the effects of curvature of the pitch line. It is also concluded from the tests that light bulkheads closely spaced strengthen corrugated cylinders very materially.

STRESSED SKIN - CYLINDERS, CIRCULAR - BENDING↗

A comparison of in situ measurements of vector-E and - vector-V x vector-B from Dynamics Explorer 2

Dynamics Explorer-2 provided the first opportunity to make a direct comparison of in situ measurements of the high-latitude convection electric field by two distinctly different techniques. The vector electric field instrument (VEFI) used antennae to measure the intrinsic electric fields and the ion drift meter (IDM) and retarding potential analyzer (RPA) measured the ion drift velocity vector, from which the convection electric field can be deduced. The data from three orbits having large electric fields at high latitude are presented, one at high, one at medium, and one at low altitudes. The general agreement between the two measurements of electric field is very good, with typical differences at high latitudes of the order of a few millivolts per meter, but there are some regions where the particle fluxes are extremely large (e.g., the cusp) and the disagreement is worse, probably because of IDM difficulties. The auroral zone potential patterns derived from the two devices are in excellent agreement for two of the cases, but not in the third, where bad attitude data may be the problem. At low latitudes there are persistent differences in the measurements of a few millivolts per meter, though these differences are quite constant from orbit to orbit. This problem seems to arise from some shortcoming in the VEFI measurments. Overall, however, these measurements confirm the concept of `frozen-in' plasma that drifts with velocity vector-E x vector-B/B(exp 2) within the measurement errors of the two techniques.

Hanson, W. B.↗

The ENSO Effect on the Temporal and Spatial Distribution of Global Lightning Activity

The recently reprocessed (1997-2006) OTD/LIS database is used to investigate the global lightning climatology in response to the ENSO cycle. A linear correlation map between lightning anomalies and ENSO (NINO3.4) identifies areas that generally follow patterns similar to precipitation anomalies. We also observed areas where significant lightning/ENSO correlations are found and are not accompanied of significant precipitation/ENSO correlations. An extreme case of the strong decoupling between lightning and precipitation is observed over the Indonesian peninsula (Sumatra) where positive lightning/NINO3.4 correlations are collocated with negative precipitation/NINO3.4 correlations. Evidence of linear relationships between the spatial extent of thunderstorm distribution and the respective NINO3.4 magnitude are presented for different regions on the Earth. Strong coupling is found over areas remote to the main ENSO axis of influence and both during warm and cold ENSO phases. Most of the resulted relationships agree with the tendencies of precipitation related to ENSO empirical maps or documented teleconnection patterns. Over the Australian continent, opposite behavior in terms of thunderstorm activity is noted for warm ENSO phases with NINO3.4 magnitudes with NINO3.4>+l.08 and 0<NqNO3.4<I.08. Finally, we investigate the spatial distribution of areas that consistently portrayed enhanced lightning activity during the main warm/cold (El Nino/La Nina) ENSO episodes of the past decade. The observed patterns show no spatial overlapping and identify areas that in their majority are in agreement with empirical precipitation/ENSO maps. The areas that appear during the warm ENSO phase are found over regions that have been identified as anomalous Hadley circulation ENSO-related patterns. The areas that appear during the cold ENSO phase are found predominantly around the west hemisphere equatorial belt and are in their majority identified by anomalous Walker circulation.

Chronis, Themis G.↗

Consumer safety-oriented scheduling of rotating power outages during heat waves

Extreme heat events have widespread effects on power systems, reducing available generation capacity, limiting transmission capabilities, and causing unusual demand patterns on the consumer side. As these combined effects expose bulk transmission systems to potential large-scale blackouts, utilities may be required to schedule and apply rotating outages, by temporarily and alternately disconnecting distribution substations to reduce overload. However, utilities lack mechanisms to inform these events, exacerbating the negative effects of heat waves on affected communities. This paper introduces a novel framework for scheduling rotating outages during heat waves while considering impacts on consumers’ safety. Instead of random sequential load shedding, we propose a methodology to rotate power outages considering a metric that quantifies the indoor overheating risk of groups of consumers during a power outage. The overheating risk is derived from a detailed building simulation using CityBES, where the buildings are modeled based on available data—use type, year built, floor area, number of stories, location—while presence of air conditioning and occupancy are calibrated from smart meter data. Based on the metric, an algorithm to schedule the rotating outages is applied to prioritize feeders for disconnection at each hour according to their overheating risk to meet a utility load reduction target. Applied to two substations and seven feeders in the Portland General Electric territory, the results show that this approach effectively leads to the lowest overheating risk during the resulting outage schedules, with an average 10.1% lower overheating compared to uninformed schedules.

Building thermal simulation↗

Ten questions on building stock modeling to inform energy efficiency and sustainability

To enhance economic competitiveness and ensure energy efficiency, resilience, and security, cities and governments are adopting technologies and strategies to improve their existing building stocks. This approach aims to reduce energy use, improve energy affordability, and ensure a reliable power supply while safeguarding occupants during extreme weather events that may disrupt energy services. The effectiveness of these solutions will depend on building stock characteristics, use patterns, weather conditions, evolving technologies and their markets, and a city’s socio-economic conditions. This paper presents ten questions and answers that highlight the most important issues regarding the use of building stock modeling as a powerful tool to provide insights for informing stakeholders’ actions and decision-making on energy efficiency, costs reduction, and resilience of buildings in cities. Building stock modeling should build upon the fit-for-purpose framework, balancing the use case accuracy requirements, level of complexity, and needed resources (expertise, compute). The advancements in Artificial Intelligence (AI), the increasingly available open dataset of building stock in cities, and the more affordable powerful computing will accelerate the adoption of building stock modeling across scales by researchers and practitioners to inform decision making on sustainability and efficiency.

AI↗

Local Circumferential Buckling of Thin Circular Cylindrical Shells

The problem of circumferential buckling of a thin circular cylindrical shell due to compressive hoop stresses which vary in the axial direction is examined. For extremely localised compressive hoop stress distributions resulting from thermal discontinuity effects, or from a uniform, radial line loading, the buckle pattern should also be localised. Simplified analyses into these two types of problem are considered which show that only a limited number of buckle deflection modes needs to be assumed.

CYLINDRICAL SHELL↗

The Parent Magmas of the Cumulate Eucrites: A Mass Balance Approach

The cumulate eucrite meteorites are gabbros that are related to the eucrite basalt meteorites. The eucrite basalts are relatively primitive (nearly flat REE patterns with La approx. 8-30 x CI), but the parent magmas of the cumulate eucrites have been inferred as extremely evolved (La to greater than 100 x CI). This inference has been based on mineral/magma partitioning, and on mass balance considering the cumulate eucrites as adcumulates of plagioclase + pigeonite only; both approaches have been criticized as inappropriate. Here, mass balance including magma + equilibrium pigeonite + equilibrium plagiociase is used to test a simple model for the cumulate eucrites: that they formed from known eucritic magma types, that they consisted only of magma + crystals in chemical equilibrium with the magma, and that they were closed to chemical exchange after the accumulation of crystals. This model is tested for major and Rare Earth Elements (REE). The cumulate eucrites Serra de Mage and Moore County are consistent, in both REE and major elements, with formation by this simple model from a eucrite magma with a composition similar to the Nuevo Laredo meteorite: Serra de Mage as 14% magma, 47.5% pigeonite, and 38.5% plagioclase; Moore County as 35% magma, 37.5% pigeonite, and 27.5% plagioclase. These results are insensitive to the choice of mineral/magma partition coefficients. Results for the Moama cumulate eucrite are strongly dependent on choice of partition coefficients; for one reasonable choice, Moama's composition can be modeled as 4% Nuevo Laredo magma, 60% pigeonite, and 36% plagioclase. Selection of parent magma composition relies heavily on major elements; the REE cannot uniquely indicate a parent magma among the eucrite basalts. The major element composition of Y-791195 can be fit adequately as a simple cumulate from any basaltic eucrite composition. However, Y-791195 has LREE abundances and La/Lu too low to be accommodated within the model using any basaltic eucrite composition and any reasonable partition coefficients. Postcumulus loss of incompatible elements seems possible. It is intriguing that Serra de Mage, Moore County, and Moama are consistent with the same parental magma; could they be from the same igneous body on the eucrite parent asteroid (4 Vesta)?

Treiman, Allan H.↗

Impacts of ENSO on the South American Summer Monsoon During 1997-1999

Using the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Reanalysis, and CPC Merged Analysis Product (CMAP) rainfall, we have compared and contrasted the anomalies of the South American Summer Monsoon (SASM) during two extreme years of 1997/98 (EI Nino) and 1998/99 (La Nina). The results are assessed against a "canonical" ENSO response (CER) pattern for the SASM obtained from empirical mode decomposition based on a previous period (1980-1995). Overall, the SASM anomalies compare well with CER, but with some important differences. Anomalies occurring in the warm phase of the 1997-98 El Nino are very significant and robust, while those occurring in 1998/99 La Nina, appear to be reversed from 1997/98, but are relatively weak and less well-defined. The most pronounced signal in DJF 1997/98 is the development of drought conditions in northern Brazil, excessive rainfall over northern Peru and Ecuador, and over Uruguay and southern Brazil. The tropical rainfall anomalies are associated with the eastward shift of the Walker circulation, which is represented by pronounced low-level anomalous westerlies over the equatorial eastern Pacific and easterlies over northern Brazil. The easterlies are deflected sharply southeastward by the steep topography of the Andes, enhancing the low-level jet (LLJ) along the eastern foothills of the Andes near 15-20 S. The LLJ penetrates deep into the extratropics, yielding rainfall anomalies further poleward compared to CER. During DJF 1997/98, the eastward expansion of the warm tropospheric temperature over the Nino-3 region causes anomalous geopotential height to develop in the upper troposphere above the Altiplano, leading to a strengthened Bolivian High. An upper-tropospheric jet anomaly maximum is found over the subtropical continent near 30 S, due to increasing meridional gradient of tropospheric temperature, as well as teleconnection patterns linking the South Pacific and the South Atlantic. Consistent with the CER, the South Pacific High is weakened, and the South Atlantic High is strengthened in DJF 1997/98. However, rather than appearing as a coherent large scale signal over the entire Atlantic as in CER, the South Atlantic High anomalies in DJF 1997/98 split into two separate high pressure centers; one located south of the Amazon basin, and another over the southeastern South Atlantic. The former is induced as a Rossby-wave response by ENSO-Induced sinking motion over nor-them and eastern Brazil, and the latter may be associated with extratropical teleconnection signals. Anomalous convection observed over equatorial western Africa may also have contributed to the different circulation response over the Atlantic in DFJ 1997/99 compared to the CER. Comparison of the evolution of the SASM anomalies in 1997-99 with their corresponding annual cycles, suggest that the anomalies are phase-locked to and represent either enhancement or reduction of the annual variations. Results suggest that, from a system perspective the SASM was strengthened during the 1997/98 El Nino and weakened, albeit to a lesser extent, during the 1998/99 La Nina.

Lau, K.-M.↗

[Development of Nanotechnology for X-Ray Astronomy Instrumentation]

This Research Grant provides support for development of nanotechnology for x-ray astronomy instrumentation. MIT has made significant progress in several development areas. In the last year we have made considerable progress in demonstrating the high-fidelity patterning and replication of x-ray reflection gratings. We developed a process for fabricating blazed gratings in silicon with extremely smooth and sharp sawtooth profiles, and developed a nanoimprint process for replication. We also developed sophisticated new fixturing for holding thin optics during metrology without causing distortion. We developed a new image processing algorithm for our Shack-Hartmann tool that uses Zernike polynomials. This has resulted in much more accurate and repeatable measurements on thin optics.

Schattenburg, Mark L.↗

Reconstruction of Six-Dimensional Phase Space

A phase space is a mathematical representation of all possible physical states of a system. Particle beams at Fermilab exist within a six-dimensional (6D) phase space defined by three positional components, (x, y, z) and three momentum components, (px, py, pz). To reconstruct this space implies taking measurement data from detectors and mapping out particle behavior using computational methods. The beam detectors, however, are only able to detect spatial distribution among the events of the beam, therefore being limited to positional data. Also, due to the vast number of events in a particle beam, it is extremely difficult to analyze and differentiate every single one’s behavior. However, with Machine Learning (ML), which can distinguish between patterns and map out particle behavior more efficiently. We first used the particle beam software, G4beamline, to simulate a 10,000-event muon beam, adjusting parameters such as initial momentum magnitude (p¬0) and virtual detector position. Using ten virtual detectors, we analyzed p0 values such that minimum 9,990 events were analyzed by every detector. We then input the data from these beam simulations to a C++ program, that randomly selects 100 events, and creates a 2D histogram based on spatial distribution, detector position, and event intensity. This process is repeated 100 times to create 100 histograms per p0 value. These images were then input to a modified ResNet18 Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) for training, and to predict p0 from some unseen set of histograms. The model was accurate when trained on momentum increments of 5 MeV/c and provided with denser training samples around highly variable test values. These results displayed machine learning being able to accurately predict p0 from being trained on different particle behaviors.

Shirlee, Jermain [Fermilab]↗

Empirical models of high latitude electric fields

Model cross sections of the high latitude dawn-dusk electric field based on OGO-6 data are presented for the signature profiles, most frequently encountered for both + and -Y orientations of the interplanetary magnetic field. Line integrals give a total potential of 76 keV in each case. To illustrate extremes, examples of model cross-sections with total potentials of 23 keV and 140 keV are also given. Model convection patterns are also presented utilizing OGO-6 data on boundary locations at other magnetic local times. When this information is combined with characteristic field geometries in the region of the Harang discontinuity, and is supplemented by data from Ba+ cloud motions in the polar cap, it becomes possible to construct realistic convection patterns on the nightside which deviate from the usual sun-aligned patterns. The observational models presented are of limited applicability as a consequence of the variability of observed distributions. These limitations are emphasized with particular attention given to several types of recurrent deviations which have not previously been discussed.

Heppner, J. P.↗

Entrainment, transport and concentration of meteorites in polar ice sheets

Glaciers and ice sheets act as slow-moving conveyancing systems for material added to both their upper and lower surfaces. Because the transit time for most materials is extremely long the ice acts as a major global storage facility. The effects of horizontal and vertical motions on the flow patterns of Antarctic ice sheets are summarized. The determination of the source areas of meteorites and their transport paths is a problem of central importance since it relates not only directly to concentration mechanisms but also to the wider issues in glaciology and meteorites. The ice and snow into which a meteorite falls, and which moves with it to the concentration area, encodes information about the infall area. The principle environmental conditions being former elevation, temperature (also related to elevation), and age of the ice. This encoded information could be used to identify the infall area.

Drewry, D. J.↗

Viscous relaxation of the Moho under large lunar basins

Viscously relaxed topography on the Moon is evidence of a period in lunar history of higher internal temperatures and greater surface activity. Previous work has demonstrated the viscous relaxation of the Tranquilitatis basin surface. Profiles of the lunar Moho under nine basins were constructed from an inversion of lunar gravity data. These profiles show a pattern of increasingly subdued relief with age, for which two explanations have been proposed. First, ancient basins may have initially had extreme Moho relief like that of younger basins like Orientale, but, due to higher internal temperatures in early lunar history, this relief viscously relaxed to that observed today. Second, ductile flow in the crust immediately after basin formation resulted in an initially shallow basin and subdued mantle uplift. The intent is to test the first hypothesis.

Brown, C. David↗