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Online Planning Algorithm

AVA v2 software selects goals for execution from a set of goals that oversubscribe shared resources. The term goal refers to a science or engineering request to execute a possibly complex command sequence, such as image targets or ground-station downlinks. Developed as an extension to the Virtual Machine Language (VML) execution system, the software enables onboard and remote goal triggering through the use of an embedded, dynamic goal set that can oversubscribe resources. From the set of conflicting goals, a subset must be chosen that maximizes a given quality metric, which in this case is strict priority selection. A goal can never be pre-empted by a lower priority goal, and high-level goals can be added, removed, or updated at any time, and the "best" goals will be selected for execution. The software addresses the issue of re-planning that must be performed in a short time frame by the embedded system where computational resources are constrained. In particular, the algorithm addresses problems with well-defined goal requests without temporal flexibility that oversubscribes available resources. By using a fast, incremental algorithm, goal selection can be postponed in a "just-in-time" fashion allowing requests to be changed or added at the last minute. Thereby enabling shorter response times and greater autonomy for the system under control.

Rabideau, Gregg R.↗

NASA's Space Launch System Begins Integration, Stacking in Preparation for Artemis I Launch

The Artemis era of human lunar exploration is nearing take-off as NASA’s new super heavy-lift launch vehicle, the Space Launch System (SLS), begins stack-ing and integration operations in mid-2020 at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) in Florida. With a planned upgrade path to progressively more powerful vehicles and availability in crew and cargo configurations, SLS provides a unique and flexible launch solution to send crew, large-scale infrastructure and robotic probes to deep space. The SLS Block 1 vehicle, the initial variant to fly, is optimized for lunar missions with a proven propulsion system consisting of four liquid hydrogen (LH2)/liquid oxygen (LOX)-fed RS-25 engines and twin five-segment solid rocket boosters (SRBs). The Block 1 vehicle can also be outfitted with an industry-standard 5 m-class payload fairing (the “cargo” configuration) and will launch at least 27 metric tons (t) of mass to trans-lunar injection (TLI). SLS is the backbone of NASA’s Artemis program, which will return the agency’s human spaceflight program to the Moon for the first time since 1972. For the Artemis I mission, SLS will send an uncrewed Orion spacecraft to TLI, where it will enter a distant retrograde lunar orbit and fly 38,000 nmi past the Moon – farther than any spacecraft built for humans has ever traveled. The SLS Block 1 vehicle for Artemis I completed manufacturing in 2019. Several elements, including the upper stage, have been delivered to the Exploration Ground Systems (EGS) program at KSC and are being prepped for integration and stack-ing. The five-segment solid rocket boosters – the largest and most powerful ever built for flight – are also complete. The booster motor segments for the Artemis I flight are scheduled to ship from prime contractor Northrop Grumman’s Utah facilities and begin stacking and integration at KSC in June 2020. The SLS core stage is the largest rocket stage NASA has ever built in terms of volume and height, and includes the avionics and the tanks that feed cryogenic propellant to the four RS-25s (formerly Space Shuttle Main Engines [SSMEs]). They have been modified with an updated controller and nozzle insulation to protect them from the hotter launch environment. The SLS core stage is currently being test-ed at NASA’s Stennis Space Center (SSC) in a series of “green run” tests to verify it meets design and performance requirements. Following the green run test series, which is scheduled to culminate with a full-duration hot-fire of the four RS-25 engines, the core stage will ship to KSC and be stacked between the sol-id rocket boosters in the Vehicle Assembly Building (VAB). Integration of the vehicle will continue with the upper stage, known as the Interim Cryogenic Propulsion Stage (ICPS) and the Launch Vehicle Stage Adapter (LVSA) on the core stage. Another adapter, the Orion Stage Adapter (OSA), connects SLS to Orion and provides housing for 13 6U CubeSat payloads manifested on Artemis I. The CubeSats will be released in deep space after Orion separates from the vehicle, and the flight marks the first ride share opportunity for independent small-sats to deep space. The second major SLS variant to come online, Block 1B, replaces the single-engine ICPS with a four-engine LH2/LOX Exploration Upper Stage (EUS). This more powerful upper stage, along with other vehicle up-grades, will enable the Block 1B vehicle to launch 38-42 t to TLI, depending on crew or cargo configuration. The final evolution of the vehicle, Block 2, will onramp evolved solid rocket boosters to increase mass to TLI to 43-46 t, de-pending on crew or cargo configuration. The Block 1B/Block 2 vehicles can be outfitted with an 8.4 m-diameter payload fairing in 19.1 m or 27.4 m lengths, to provide unprecedented volume for payloads. With the initial Block 1 vehicle completely manufactured and the core stage in final testing before shipping to KSC, the SLS Program and its industry partners have made significant progress manufacturing subsequent vehicles. For the second Block 1 vehicle, the solid rocket motor segments are complete, as are the RS-25 engines with controllers. All five major components of the Artemis II core stage – the forward skirt, LOX and LH2 tanks, intertank and engine section – are manufactured and technicians are installing subsystems at NASA’s rocket factory, Michoud Assembly Facility. The RL-10 engine for the Artemis II ICPS is complete and panels have been machined for its LH2 tank. In addition, panels are machined for the vehicle’s two adapters, with welding scheduled to begin in summer 2020. Flight hard-ware is also in production for the third SLS vehicle, with several booster motor segments cast. The pace of development on the EUS has increased, with the goal to complete Critical Design Review (CDR) in December 2020. Several EUS test rings have been machined at Michoud. The EUS is designed to exe-cute a variety of missions – human spaceflight, deployment of deep-space infra-structure, or high-C3 missions to the outer solar system – with crew and cargo configurations available beginning in the mid-2020s. The near-term goal for the nation’s powerful new space exploration asset, however, is to launch the Arte-mis program, and send the first woman and the next man to the lunar surface. At the Astrodynamics Specialist Conference, the SLS program will update the community on the progress of the initial Block 1 vehicle in final green run test-ing, integration and stacking. In addition, this paper will provide an update to the community on the manufacturing status of subsequent Block 1 and Block 1B vehicles.

Steve Creech↗

Uniting Theory and Experiment to Deliver Flexible MOFS for Superior Methane (NG) Storage

The objective of the project was to use previous insights developed through synthesis and quantitative modeling of rigid metal–organic frameworks (MOFs) in an established synergistic theoretical/experimental team to create, modify, and evaluate flexible MOFs (FlexMOFs) for natural gas (NG) storage and release at practically useful pressures and transform the NG storage economy. The goal was reduced pressure absorbed natural gas (ANG) FlexMOF storage at operating pressures less than 100 bar with physisorption exploiting the favorable thermodynamics and kinetics of flexible porous material opening in response to adsorption. Hydrogen behavior in this context was also considered. The specific aim of the project was to design and develop a standard computational modeling methodology for, first, detailed atomistic retrodiction of FlexMOF gating behavior and ultimately prediction of the effects of functionalization and/or substitution on structural transitioning. The project was also geared towards the establishment of the interaction of methane with the framework and binding sites using modeling and the FlexMOF will be both internally and external validated as a SMART metric. This has value to the scientific community both from the obvious standpoint of providing a better understanding of the promising test case systems (CdIF-13 and the MIL-53(Al) series of MOFs), but also in providing an avenue of obtaining insight into these FlexMOF systems in general, which is of particular interest given the tendency of structure-function correlation to lag behind synthesis methodology (making the latter a hit or miss proposition for applications). This gap remains significant for FlexMOF systems whose gate opening behaviors complicate computational examination. The computational methodologies are relatively inexpensive in terms of both money and computational resources enhancing the general viability of these methodologies. The ultimate gain to the public will be in the application of these techniques to design systems for natural gas storage and use to cut down on green-house emissions.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Potential Advantages of Conducting Short Duration Visits to the Martian Surface

Recent NASA concepts for human missions to Mars, including the Evolvable Mars Campaign and Design Reference Architecture 5.0, have focused on the conduct of missions with long duration stays on the Martian surface. The decision to focus on long duration missions (typically to a single site) is driven by a desire to increase the perceived sustainability of the human Mars campaign, predicated on the assumption that sustainability is best achieved by maximizing the level of activity on the surface, providing for continuous growth in operations, and promoting pioneering of Mars. However, executing a series of long duration missions to a single site is not the only option for human exploration of Mars that has been proposed. Other architectures have been evaluated that focus on missions with short duration surface stays, with each mission visiting a separate site on the surface. This type of architecture is less efficient in that elements are not typically reused from one mission to the next but requires a far less complex surface architecture. There are potentially valid arguments to be made that a short duration, multiple site approach could result in different types of advantages when compared to the long duration, single site approach to Mars exploration, particularly for initial human missions to Mars. These arguments revolve around four areas: Achieved Value, Risk Mitigation, Developmental Affordability, and Operational Affordability & Flexibility. The question of Achieved Value relates to the prioritization of goals for Martian exploration. As discussed, goals related to pioneering and expanding human presence are often referenced as justifications for the long duration approach. However, there are other competing goals, including science and exploration. While there is not a clear consensus among planetary scientists, many have argued that the value of being able to visit multiple sites could outweigh the value of continually visiting a single site. Risk Mitigation is a major concern for initial human missions to Mars. There are a number of hazards related to operating on the Martian surface that are not well characterized. It may be desirable to conduct a series of short duration missions to better understand the nature of these risks prior to committing to a long duration mission. Developmental Affordability relates to the ability of NASA and its partners to develop and deploy the proposed architecture. Any human missions to Mars will be among the most complex endeavors ever undertaken. The capabilities that must be developed to enable any human Mars missions are extremely challenging. The total design, development, test, and evaluation (DDT&E) budget required to develop just the essential capabilities alone will be substantial. If additional surface capabilities are required to support long duration surface stays, the development effort could be unaffordable. Operational Affordability & Flexibility relates to the continued costs to execute the Mars campaign. Long duration missions, even with some amount of in-situ resource utilization, require a significant level of resupply for every mission. This requires additional launches and in-space transportation assets, increasing the operational complexity and total operational cost. This paper will explore each of the four potential advantages of short duration missions in detail. The authors will present comparisons between proposed long duration and short duration architectures through an evaluation of relevant performance, cost, and risk metrics.

Stromgren, Chel↗

Design Considerations for Practical Li-S Batteries for Electric Aviation

The development of high-energy, high-safety, and high-power batteries beyond electric automotive standards is critical for future electric aviation applications. Non-volatile solid-state electrolytes (SSE) offer many promising advantages over traditional flammable liquid electrolytes. Solid-state electrolytes may be an enabling technology for certain battery chemistries by preventing detrimental interactions with liquid electrolytes, for example prevention of the dissolution of intermediates in lithium-sulfur common in traditional liquid organic solvents. However, significant manufacturing challenges must be overcome before the adoption of such technology. This research was conducted to identify processing techniques for producing solid-state battery components with practical dimensions and weights for enabling high specific energy cells. Traditional research has identified a range of very high theoretical ionic conductivities but are impractical due to their instability or inability to be manufactured. Electrolytes explored in this study were produced as sulfide-polymer composites with densified thicknesses below 40 micron using a tape-casting technique and thermoplastic elastomer binder. The combination of high chemical compatibility and flexibility produced robust films that had moderate impact on the ionic conductivity but was capable of dramatically reducing the parasitic mass. Despite minimal conductivity losses, films were produced 10-15 times thinner than comparable bulk powder electrolytes thus leading to overall lower film resistance. Conductivity is maintained above 0.2mS/cm for composite electrolytes. Through the analysis of materials based on their physical properties, such as density, practical cells can be designed. Based on this, low density sulfide-solid-state electrolytes are a promising candidate for achieving the energy and safety metrics for electric aviation, however, further optimization of cathode microstructure and composite processing will be required to achieve the high power metrics and will be the focus of further studies. Additionally, fabrication challenges arise when utilizing metallic lithium foil, due to its soft nature, as overflow and mechanical short circuit can occur on assembly which remains a challenge to overcome before metallic lithium anodes can be fully realized.

batteries↗

Mesoflow: An Open-Source Reacting Flow Solver for Catalysis at Mesoscale

We present the capabilities and software performance metrics of our open-source continuum solver for catalysis, Mesoflow, developed specifically for modeling transport and chemistry at the mesoscale. Our solver utilizes Cartesian block-structured adaptive mesh refinement to resolve complex catalyst surface morphologies directly obtained from X-ray tomography data. An immersed boundary based formulation enables rapid representation of complex geometries prevalent in most mesoporous catalyst interfaces. The solver is developed on top of open-source performance portable library, AMReX, providing parallel execution capabilities on current and upcoming high-performance-computing (HPC) architectures. Our flexible software framework enables integration of complex chemical mechanisms at heterogenous interfaces and time-split algorithms for circumventing highly disparate reaction and flow time-scales. Our current studies indicate a ten-fold performance gain by using graphics-processing-units (GPUs) compared to a single processor for representative problem sizes (2 million cell mesh). We will also present a brief introduction on how to build and use this software for application problems pertaining to catalytic upgrading and gas transport within porous catalyst particles.

adaptive meshing↗

HydroForecast Long-term: Improving hydropower’s resilience to climate change through accurate climate-scale

With hydrologic patterns and water availability across the globe shifting due to climate change, advancements in hydrologic prediction systems can help significantly reduce the uncertainties that utilities and water supply entities have in their decision making. Understanding and estimating hydrology at the climate scale is critical for managing water resources under changing climate scenarios. This project focuses on integrating state-of-the-art neural network modeling with downscaled climate projections to deliver the reliable water supply projections decades into the future to meet an urgent need from hydropower operators and water utilities. In this Phase 1 DOE SBIR proposal, we developed and validated a theory-guided neural network model, HydroForecast Long-term, for climate-scale hydrology and implemented the model within existing HydroForecast infrastructure. HydroForecast Long-term combines the most accurate streamflow modeling system with a flexible and scalable data architecture to generate water supply projections out to the year 2100. This report illustrates that we have achieved our four objectives: 1) create a prototype of HydroForecast Long-term, building the neural network prediction model, 2) build an automated data input pipeline that processes large amounts of data from the latest global temperature and precipitation climate models; 3) benchmark the accuracy of the hydrologic model over the recent two decades over a large set of diverse basins, and 4) create a set of output visuals and summary metrics informed by customer feedback that connect the data to critical decision points. This work empowers water users to make data-informed decisions supporting a resilient, renewable-powered grid and water system. The results advance the Department of Energy’s mission by addressing critical gaps in water supply planning under climate change.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Plastic Parallel Pathways Platform - 4P Model

Global momentum is building towards a circular economy capable of keeping plastics in use and out of waste streams. Given that 79% of all plastic produced since 1950 has accumulated in landfills or the natural environment,rapid implementation of various end-of-life (EoL) management technologies will be needed to reach this target. However, it can be challenging to develop an effective plastic EoL strategy when the available options - chemical or molecular recycling, energy recovery, upcycling, downcycling, closed-loop (plastic-to-plastic) or open-loop (plastic-to-x) recycling, among others - can generate products ranging from low-grade to virgin-quality plastic and from fuels to value-added chemicals. We present a flexible material flow model capable of analyzing the effects of both plastic-to-plastic and plastic-to-x EoL management strategies on the U.S. PET economy. This Plastic Parallel Pathways Platform (4P) assesses the environmental impacts, costs, and circularity of a PET system in which waste is managed through six potential EoL pathways: landfill, incineration with energy recovery, pyrolysis to fuel oil, upcycling to glass fiber reinforced plastic (GFRP), mechanical recycling to low-grade PET, and chemical recycling (glycolysis) to bottle-grade PET. We compare the pathways across multiple metrics using multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) and then use a brute force algorithm to predict an optimal combination of EoL pathways to minimize greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and costs and maximize circularity. This work highlights the need to implement a diverse portfolio of EoL strategies in parallel to enable a PET economy that meets environmental, economic, and circularity requirements simultaneously.

downcycling↗

Energy Arbitrage: Comparison of Options for use with LWR Nuclear Power Plants

Arbitrage is the opportunistic buying and selling of a commodity during local pricing valleys and peaks respectively to maximize economic value. This report evaluates options for energy arbitrage integrated with existing light water reactor (LWR) nuclear power plants (NPPs) where nuclear energy could be stored in a variety of forms and later recovered to generate electrical power during periods when grid electricity demand and pricing are high. The forms of energy storage examined in this report include the potential value of batteries, hydrogen, and thermal energy storage for coupling with nuclear power. Various large demand response options are also analyzed, including the production of liquid nitrogen via air separation and liquefaction, liquefaction of hydrogen, compressed hydrogen, and the cryogenic capture of CO2. Demand response refers to dispatchable loads that can cycle up or down depending on-grid electricity demand to aid in balancing the grid. Large demand response options could dispatch to aid nuclear power stations in avoiding power turndowns by providing an alternate disposition for electrical energy by producing marketable products (e.g., liquid nitrogen, hydrogen, or captured CO2). Static conditions were chosen and analyzed in this report for each option. Dynamic operation or optimization of energy arbitrage or demand response are out of scope for this report. The analysis is based on storage systems with discharge capacities of 500 MW for which various durations of storage and costs of charging (electricity cost) are examined. While the value of thermal energy to an industrial user for flexible plant operations has been previously proven as a business case, this report evaluates costs of hydrogen energy storage and leading thermal energy storage options, and large demand response loads that could be integrated with LWRs in comparison to utility-scale battery storage for use of off-peak nuclear energy. Compilation of this information will be used by the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) RAVEN/HERON systems integration and economics tool to evaluate thermal energy dispatch to industrial users. Relative ranking of energy storage options was done using a levelized cost of storage (LCOS) metric which calculates a rough breakeven cost for the system, taking into account the capital and operating costs as well as the revenue from arbitrage. Table ES1 below shows the LCOS for each of the energy storage options considered. First, in the table, lithium iron (Fe) phosphate batteries are listed as the base case for comparison against the other options. Next is hydrogen storage where most of the hydrogen analyses assumed the hydrogen to be produced using solid oxide electrolytic cell (SOEC) high temperature steam electrolysis (HTSE). The others used existing models of polymer electrolyte membrane (PEM) low temperature electrolysis to produce hydrogen. HTSE performance parameters and costs were taken from existing INL models. Various means were assumed to convert the hydrogen to electricity, including PEM fuel cells (FCs) and a gas turbine mixed in a 30 vol% mixture with natural gas. Physical storage (pressure vessels) and geological storage (natural underground features) were used to store the hydrogen as noted. Geological storage is more economical, but the locations are limited because of the requirement for pre-existing geological formations that will support storage. Thermal energy storage (TES) options were also analyzed including electro-thermal energy storage (ETES) and four different liquid sensible heat TES storage media as noted (Hitec, Hitec XL, Therminol-66, and Dowtherm A). The ETES process considered was modified using existing public documentation on an Echogen process and uses a separate supercritical CO2 charge and discharge cycle with sand as the heat storage media.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

High-Altitude ADS-B/GPS LPV Flight Tests on a NASA ER-2 Research Airplane

The research presented in this paper describes the conceptual design of a system architecture that integrates Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) and Global Positioning System (GPS) Localizer Performance Vertical (LPV) guidance technology onto a unique high-altitude research airplane: a United States Air Force (USAF) / Lockheed Martin (Bethesda, Maryland) Aeronautics U-2S airplane. The design features modern display capabilities to provide air-to-air surveillance and precision navigation, to adhere to Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) certification standards for operations in upper Class E airspace. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) variant of the U-2S, now called the Earth Resources (ER-2) airplane, remains unrivaled in the art of sustained high-altitude flight for scientific expeditions. Capable of routinely cruising above flight level (FL) 650 that had been considered, at inception, the domain of only the most elite experimental research aircraft types. Nicknamed the Dragon Lady, this U-2S research testbed is still one of the most advanced aircraft in the world. The exceptional military design of the vehicle, security guidelines, and the performance envelope of the ER-2 posed unique challenges to the integration of modern civilian avionics. ADS-B epitomizes the next generation of surveillance technology, incorporating both air and ground aspects. ADS-B provides air traffic control (ATC) with a more accurate picture of the three-dimensional positioning of aircraft in various phases of flight, including en route, terminal, approach, and ground operations. The airborne surveillance system broadcasts its identification, position, altitude, velocity, and other information. GPS LPV represents a significant advancement in aviation technology, emphasizing the pivotal role that GPS and Performance-Based Navigation concepts will play in the foreseeable future. This technology represents a shift from sensor-based navigation to performance-based navigation, allowing for more flexible and efficient use of airspace. This research described herein is structured as follows: Section II, “Systems Background,” provides a systems background and description of an ADS-B and GPS LPV system equipped on the high-altitude ER-2 research airplane to satisfy the FAA airworthiness requirements for high-altitude flight operations. Section III, “Flight Test System,” describes the flight-test airplane systems. Section IV, “Analysis of GPS SBAS, Safety, and Ground Tests,” provides an overview of the GPS Satellite-Based Augmentation System (SBAS) and an analysis of the GPS LPV metrics, safety, and ground tests. Section V, “High-Altitude Flight Tests,” describes the high-altitude flight tests, including 3 flight-test results, analysis, human factors, and lessons learned. Section VI, the conclusion, draws insights from the lessons learned, discusses the design challenges associated with ADS-B and GPS LPV, and showcases the paramount significance of these pivotal technologies in aircraft surveillance and navigation.

Ricardo A. Arteaga↗

Integrated Modeling for the Next Generation Space Telescope "Yardstick" Concept

The so-called NASA "Yardstick" design concept for the Next Generation Space Telescope presents unique challenges for systems-level analysis. Simulations that integrate controls, optics, thermal, and structural models are required to evaluate baseline performance, study design sensitivities, and perform design optimization. An integrated modeling approach was chosen using a combination of commercial off-the-shelf and "in-house" developed codes. The resulting capability provides a foundation for linear and non-linear analysis, using both the time and frequency-domain methods. It readily allows various combinations of design parameters and environmental loads to be evaluated directly in terms of key science-related metrics, in this case the scalar RMS (root mean square) line-of-sight and RMS wavefront errors. This presentation first addresses the development of the component, or discipline, models for the Yardstick design. It will then proceed to present the integration of the component models, using linear-systems approaches, in order to support two of the most critical baseline performance analyses: jitter and thermal-elastic stability of the optical telescope assembly (OTA). The results of the jitter analysis indicate that disturbances from the reaction wheels coupled with the lightly-damped and highly-flexible structure present significant challenges to the baseline line-of-sight control architecture. Vibration isolation will be required to meet jitter error requirements. The results of the thermal-elastic analysis indicate that the mirror segment displacements due to ground-to-orbit cool-down of the telescope are within the expected capture range of the segment rigid-body control actuators. This means we will be able to align and phase the primary mirror. However, the results for the analysis of the thermal transient response following an attitude maneuver (slew) show that this telescope design is not sufficiently stable, passively, to meet the wavefront error requirements. Structural re-design is one possibility; alternatively, active thermal control of the OTA may be considered. The Yardstick integrated models were successfully used to demonstrate the feasibility of two thermal control strategies.

Mosier, Gary E.↗

Managing Solar Photovoltaic Integration in the Western United States: Resource Adequacy Considerations

This study examines the impact of reserve margin-based reliability assessment, as commonly used in capacity expansion models, on planning resource-adequate power systems under high penetrations of solar photovoltaics (PV). As a generation resource, PV is operationally different from the conventional dispatchable resources for which most capacity expansion models were designed. The question this study attempts to answer is whether large amounts of PV on a system (in this case, the Western Interconnection of North America) would bias the results of conventional reserve margin-based capacity expansion modeling towards an over- or under-provisioning of resource adequacy. This analysis used NREL’s Resource Planning Model (RPM) for capacity expansion modeling and NREL’s Probabilistic Resource Adequacy Suite (PRAS) for resource adequacy assessment. RPM uses a reserve margin requirement to enforce resource adequacy. PRAS, a collection of tools for studying the resource adequacy of power systems and the adequacy contributions of individual resources on a probabilistic basis, was used to compute multiple resource adequacy metrics across a number of simulated scenarios and system representations with differing regional detail. In all cases, including high PV penetrations (up to 33% annual generation from PV, interconnection-wide), RPM was able to produce resource-adequate systems as measured by normalized expected unserved energy and loss-of-load expectation results from PRAS. The accuracy of reserve margin approaches depends heavily on the underlying assumptions informing the capacity credit assigned to variable and energy-limited resources, particularly when such resources are abundant in the modeled system. RPM’s standard methodology for estimating variable and flexible resources’ capacity contributions, which is based on the top 100 hours of net load, did not appear to systematically undervalue or overvalue variable generation relative to a more rigorous equivalent firm capacity assessment using PRAS, although both over- and under-valuations were observed in specific scenarios. In the worst cases, the top 100 hour method underestimated the equivalent firm capacity of PV by two percentage points, and overestimated the equivalent firm capacity of PV by five percentage points. Calculating capacity contributions based on the top 10 hours of net load systematically underestimated equivalent firm capacities at more modest PV penetrations, but was often a better approximation of equivalent firm capacity than the existing 100-hour approach in scenarios with higher PV penetrations.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Control-Relevant Modeling, Analysis, and Design for Scramjet-Powered Hypersonic Vehicles

Within this paper, control-relevant vehicle design concepts are examined using a widely used 3 DOF (plus flexibility) nonlinear model for the longitudinal dynamics of a generic carrot-shaped scramjet powered hypersonic vehicle. Trade studies associated with vehicle/engine parameters are examined. The impact of parameters on control-relevant static properties (e.g. level-flight trimmable region, trim controls, AOA, thrust margin) and dynamic properties (e.g. instability and right half plane zero associated with flight path angle) are examined. Specific parameters considered include: inlet height, diffuser area ratio, lower forebody compression ramp inclination angle, engine location, center of gravity, and mass. Vehicle optimizations is also examined. Both static and dynamic considerations are addressed. The gap-metric optimized vehicle is obtained to illustrate how this control-centric concept can be used to "reduce" scheduling requirements for the final control system. A classic inner-outer loop control architecture and methodology is used to shed light on how specific vehicle/engine design parameter selections impact control system design. In short, the work represents an important first step toward revealing fundamental tradeoffs and systematically treating control-relevant vehicle design.

Rodriguez, Armando A.↗

Benchmarking Demand Flexibility in Commercial Buildings and Flattening the Duck – Addressing Baseline and Commissioning Challenges

With the transition from our traditional electric grid to a cleaner grid with renewable power generation, there is a need to enable building loads to be flexible. Load shedding and shifting will be essential for flattening the “Duck” for decarbonization. This paper explored the trend in the timing of DR events as a reflection of the grid’s needs using recent four years of event data from 203 retail stores in 11 states. The events are becoming significantly shorter with 2-hour duration being the most popular; shifting to late afternoon and early evening is another trend beyond California. Benchmarking will be essential for accounting DF as a reliable grid resource. This paper addresses a challenging aspect of benchmarking – inaccuracies in counterfactual baseline methods can introduce significant DF metrics variations in addition to weather and building characteristics related factors. The conventional “10/10” with adjustment baseline method has inherent limitation by design for load shifting applications. Therefore, it is imperative to identify alternative methods. This study compared three hourly regression baseline methods with “10/10” methods using two groups of commercial buildings that participated in DR programs: (1) 121 big-box retail stores, and (2) 11 office buildings in CA. The 14-day hourly outdoor temperature regression method was found to produce least error in the tested datasets and is promising for load shifting. The paper also pointed out that commissioning issues can also be a significant barrier for achieving consistent DF performance, which building managers and utilities should be aware of.

Liu, Jingjing↗

Advanced Air Traffic Management Research (Human Factors and Automation): NASA Research Initiatives in Human-Centered Automation Design in Airspace Management

NASA has initiated a significant thrust of research and development focused on providing the flight crew and air traffic managers automation aids to increase capacity in en route and terminal area operations through the use of flexible, more fuel-efficient routing, while improving the level of safety in commercial carrier operations. In that system development, definition of cognitive requirements for integrated multi-operator dynamic aiding systems is fundamental. The core processes of control and the distribution of decision making in that control are undergoing extensive analysis. From our perspective, the human operators and the procedures by which they interact are the fundamental determinants of the safe, efficient, and flexible operation of the system. In that perspective, we have begun to explore what our experience has taught will be the most challenging aspects of designing and integrating human-centered automation in the advanced system. We have performed a full mission simulation looking at the role shift to self-separation on board the aircraft with the rules of the air guiding behavior and the provision of a cockpit display of traffic information and an on-board traffic alert system that seamlessly integrates into the TCAS operations. We have performed and initial investigation of the operational impact of "Dynamic Density" metrics on controller relinquishing and reestablishing full separation authority. (We follow the assumption that responsibility at all times resides with the controller.) This presentation will describe those efforts as well as describe the process by which we will guide the development of error tolerant systems that are sensitive to shifts in operator work load levels and dynamic shifts in the operating point of air traffic management.

Corker, Kevin M.↗

A Framework for Orbital Performance Evaluation in Distributed Space Missions for Earth Observation

Distributed Space Missions (DSMs) are gaining momentum in their application to earth science missions owing to their unique ability to increase observation sampling in spatial, spectral and temporal dimensions simultaneously. DSM architectures have a large number of design variables and since they are expected to increase mission flexibility, scalability, evolvability and robustness, their design is a complex problem with many variables and objectives affecting performance. There are very few open-access tools available to explore the tradespace of variables which allow performance assessment and are easy to plug into science goals, and therefore select the most optimal design. This paper presents a software tool developed on the MATLAB engine interfacing with STK, for DSM orbit design and selection. It is capable of generating thousands of homogeneous constellation or formation flight architectures based on pre-defined design variable ranges and sizing those architectures in terms of predefined performance metrics. The metrics can be input into observing system simulation experiments, as available from the science teams, allowing dynamic coupling of science and engineering designs. Design variables include but are not restricted to constellation type, formation flight type, FOV of instrument, altitude and inclination of chief orbits, differential orbital elements, leader satellites, latitudes or regions of interest, planes and satellite numbers. Intermediate performance metrics include angular coverage, number of accesses, revisit coverage, access deterioration over time at every point of the Earth's grid. The orbit design process can be streamlined and variables more bounded along the way, owing to the availability of low fidelity and low complexity models such as corrected HCW equations up to high precision STK models with J2 and drag. The tool can thus help any scientist or program manager select pre-Phase A, Pareto optimal DSM designs for a variety of science goals without having to delve into the details of the engineering design process.

Earth Science↗

FunMC^2: A Filter for Uncertainty Visualization of Marching Cubes on Multi-Core Devices

Visualization is an important tool for scientists to extract understanding from complex scientific data. Scientists need to understand the uncertainty inherent in all scientific data in order to interpret the data correctly. Uncertainty visualization has been an active and growing area of research to address this challenge. Algorithms for uncertainty visualization can be expensive, and research efforts have been focused mainly on structured grid types. Further, support for uncertainty visualization in production tools is limited. In this paper, we adapt an algorithm for computing key metrics for visualizing uncertainty in Marching Cubes (MC) to multi-core devices and present the design, implementation, and evaluation for a Filter for uncertainty visualization of Marching Cubes on Multi-Core devices (FunMC2). FunMC2 accelerates the uncertainty visualization of MC significantly, and it is portable across multi-core CPUs and GPUs. Evaluation results show that FunMC2 based on OpenMP runs around 11× to 41× faster on multi-core CPUs than the corresponding serial version using one CPU core. FunMC2 based on a single GPU is around 5× to 9× faster than FunMC2 running by OpenMP. Moreover, FunMC2 is flexible enough to process ensemble data with both structured and unstructured mesh types. Furthermore, we demonstrate that FunMC2 can be seamlessly integrated as a plugin into ParaView, a production visualization tool for post-processing.

Wang, Jay↗

Extreme Environments Solar Power Project For Use Near Jupiter

The Extreme Environment Solar Power (EESP) Project goal was to develop solar cell and solar array design concept technologies for space power applications in high radiation and low solar intensity, low temperature (LILT) environments. NASA missions focused on outer planets, such as Jupiter, are subjected to intense radiation while experiencing less than ten percent of the solar flux relative to a mission in the general vicinity of Earth. Under these conditions, present solar array technology is not as efficient in converting the sun’s energy, and the solar array performance degrades quickly due to the additional radiation exposure. The EESP Project objectives were accomplished through four competitively selected contracts. These contracts were awarded with a Base and two option periods of performance. The Base requirements included System Design and Component Test & Analysis with a duration of nine and one half (9.5) months. The Option I requirements involved the fabrication of test hardware that NASA would evaluate following its delivery, and this period of performance had a duration of thirteen (13) months. The Option II requirements involved the fabrication of a scalable system prototype that can be integrated into a system level application and be demonstrated in a relevant environment. Option II had a duration of fifteen (15) months. The Transformational Array (TA) is an array concept developed by JHU-APL with Deployable Space Systems (DSS), SolAero Technologies and NewForge Technologies that proceeded through all three contract periods. The TA combines the DSS Roll Out Solar Array (ROSA) with Flexible Array Concentrator Technology (FACT) and SolAero’s Inverted Metamorphic Multijunction (IMM) solar cells for operation in the EESP Project environment. To achieve the EESP Project goals, the JHU-APL team conducted several investigations to improve performance of the solar cells and increase their efficiency, reduce outgassing contamination of the concentrators from the solar cell assembly adhesives, and to test the robustness of a sample blanket during deployment and retraction. Additionally, the team performed vibration, thermal cycling, and performance tests at a Standard Power Module (SPM) level. At the end of Option II, the JHU-APL team achieved the following performance metrics: • 39% beginning of life (BOL) cell efficiency at 5 AU and -125 C • 29% end of life (EOL) efficiency at the blanket level at 50 W/m2, -125 C and 4x1015 1 MeV e/cm2 • Increased specific power to 8 W/kg at EOL for the entire array including structure, deployment, and pointing mechanisms • Demonstrated the ability to survive numerous deploy-retract cycles without degradation • Reached a current System-Level Technology Readiness Level, TRL5 This presentation will describe the Transformational Array and component technologies and will discuss future potential uses for the system.

Anna Maria Pal↗