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NASA NTRS2012

Climate Change Adaptation Science Activities at NASA Johnson Space Center

The Johnson Space Center (JSC), located in the southeast metropolitan region of Houston, TX is the prime NASA center for human spaceflight operations and astronaut training, but it also houses the unique collection of returned extraterrestrial samples, including lunar samples from the Apollo missions. The Center's location adjacent to Clear Lake and the Clear Creek watershed, an estuary of Galveston Bay, puts it at direct annual risk from hurricanes, but also from a number of other climate-related hazards including drought, floods, sea level rise, heat waves, and high wind events all assigned Threat Levels of 2 or 3 in the most recent NASA Center Disaster/Risk Matrix produced by the Climate Adaptation Science Investigator Working Group. Based on prior CASI workshops at other NASA centers, it is recognized that JSC is highly vulnerable to climate-change related hazards and has a need for adaptation strategies. We will present an overview of prior CASI-related work at JSC, including publication of a climate change and adaptation informational data brochure, and a Resilience and Adaptation to Climate Risks Workshop that was held at JSC in early March 2012. Major outcomes of that workshop that form a basis for work going forward are 1) a realization that JSC is embedded in a regional environmental and social context, and that potential climate change effects and adaptation strategies will not, and should not, be constrained by the Center fence line; 2) a desire to coordinate data collection and adaptation planning activities with interested stakeholders to form a regional climate change adaptation center that could facilitate interaction with CASI; 3) recognition that there is a wide array of basic data (remotely sensed, in situ, GIS/mapping, and historical) available through JSC and other stakeholders, but this data is not yet centrally accessible for planning purposes.

Stefanov, William L.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Anthropogenic effects on flood hazards in a hyper-arid watershed: The 2015 Atacama floods

An unprecedented precipitation event in the hyper-arid Atacama Desert of Northern Chile occurred in March 2015. Geomorphic alterations to the river channel and the coastal zone, coupled with the exceptional magnitude of the rainfall, caused catastrophic damage and loss of life. On the coast of the El Salado watershed, legacy mine tailings infilled the watershed-ocean connection, while the river channel was altered both by tailings and urbanization. The consequences of this event resulted from the coupling of anthropogenic geomorphic changes with an unusual climate event. Lack of field data, complex geomorphology and sediment loads influenced by human activity make analysing floods in these regions especially challenging. The objective of this work is to improve our understanding of the factors that control flood hazards by using numerical simulations to reconstruct the 2015 flood in El Salado. We carry out unsteady two-dimensional simulations fully coupled with the sediment concentration to identify the influence of tailing deposits, considering high-resolution data of the pre- and post-2015 flood topography. In conclusion, the results highlight the importance of specific event-based studies, using models that can help designing better strategies for climate change adaptation and risk mitigation, while providing information for risk reduction and channel restoration.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2012

Use of Windbreaks for Hurricane Protection of Critical Facilities

The protection of NASA Langley Research Center from future hurricanes is important in order to allow the center to fulfill its mission. The impact of the center is not only great within NASA but the economy as well. The infrastructure of the Center is under potential risk in the future because of more intense hurricanes with higher speed winds and flooding. A potential method of protecting the Center s facilities is the placement of a windbreak barrier composed of indigenous trees. The New Town program that is now in progress creates a more condensed area of focus for protection. A potential design for an efficient tree windbreak barrier for Langley Research center is proposed.

Hyater-Adams, Sinone↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

AgMIP Local, National and Global Assessments of Food System Challenges in A Changing Climate

Food systems connect a diverse network of stakeholders around the world, with complex dynamics governing production, processing, transportation, trade and consumption of food products. Extreme conditions can disrupt multiple components of the food system, with systemic connections providing structure that can both buffer and exacerbate risks. Climate change is shifting current practices in agricultural production and the broader food system, encouraging shifts toward more diverse value chains capable of drawing from multiple food producing regions to reduce the chance that an entire value chain be subject to simultaneous impacts. The IPCC Working Group I report assessed that heat waves, fires, floods and severe storms are becoming more pronounced and widespread with each degree of global warming, increasing food system risk. Food system disruptions can also come from outside the climate system, including from viral outbreaks, geopolitical conflict and socioeconomic changes. This presentation will highlight how the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) develops modeling approaches that connect climate, biophysical and socioeconomic models in order to capture complex responses of the food system and potential interventions by diverse stakeholders in the public and private sectors. Models are applied on a range of scales that match decision contexts. These include households in specific agricultural production regions (e.g., within a country), national-level policymakers considering policies, sustainability and development priorities for a country’s agricultural sector, and global food market models that balance production and consumption around the world with competition for land, water, energy and sustainability priorities. Models are capable of capturing many important responses, but further development is needed to represent key systemic risks and the possibility for additional interventions beyond the farm gate. Improved food system models will provide important insights into our society’s ability to cope with climate change, as well as our ability to identify agricultural adaptation and mitigation opportunities to reduce overall risk.

Food systems↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data for Myers-Pigg et al. (2026), "Short-term coastal forest responses to a hurricane-scale freshwater and saltwater flooding experiment"

Coastal upland forests are exposed to intensifying precipitation regimes and sea level rise, increasing tree mortality and transforming these coastal forests into wetland ecosystems. Despite these well-known risks, the differing degrees to which hydrological, biogeochemical, and biological components of upland forests respond to novel salinity exposure is relatively unknown. The Terrestrial Ecosystem Manipulation to Probe the Effects of Storm Treatments (TEMPEST) experiment decouples two distinct disturbances associated with hydrological extremes: (1) flooding from heavy precipitation and (2) exposure to saline conditions from storm surge. This dataset includes data reported in Myers-Pigg et al. (2025), which analyzed data from the first TEMPEST flooding treatment in 2022. This includes: - Colored dissolved organic matter in porewaters - Soil temperature and oxygen - Groundwater temperature and chemistry - Dissolved organic carbon concentrations in porewaters - Soil-to-atmosphere CH4 and CO2 fluxes - Soil temperature, water content, and electrical conductivity - Root-influenced CH4 and CO2 flux - Tree sap flow velocity - The R analytical code and documentation about the computational environmental in which it was run (the "sessionInfo.txt" file) All data files are plain-text comma separated value (CSV) and no special software is required to read them.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

A mechanistic model of a PWR-based nuclear power plant in response to external hazard-induced station blackout accidents

Natural hazard-induced nuclear accidents, such as the Fukushima Daiichi Accident that occurred in Japan in 2011, have significantly increased reactor safety studies in understanding nuclear power plant (NPP) responses to external hazard events such as earthquakes and floods. Natural hazards could cause the loss of offsite power in nuclear power plants, potentially leading to a Station Blackout (SBO) accident that significantly contributes to the overall risk of nuclear power plant accidents. Despite the fact that extensive research has been conducted on the station blackout accident for nuclear power plant, further understanding of these events is needed, particularly in the context of the dynamic nature of external hazards such as external flooding. This paper estimates the progression of station blackout events for a generic pressurized water reactor (PWR) in response to external flooding events. The original RELAP5-3D model of the Westinghouse four-loop design pressurized water reactor was adopted and modified to simulate the external flood-induced station blackout accident, including the short-term and long-term station blackout scenarios. A sensitivity analysis of long-term station blackout, examining reactor operation times and analyzing key parameters over time, was also conducted in this work. The results of the analyses, especially the critical timing parameters of key event sequences, provide useful insights about the time during the external flooding event, which is important for plant operators to make timely decisions to prevent potential core damage. This paper represents significant progress toward developing an integrated risk assessment framework for further identifying and assessing the effects of the critical sources of uncertainties of nuclear power plant under external hazard-induced events.

Liu, Tao↗
DOE OSTI2024

Increasing extreme hourly precipitation risk for New York City after Hurricane Ida

The remnants of Hurricane Ida caused major damage and death in the United States on September 1st, 2021, and 11 people drowned in flooded basement apartments within New York City (NYC). It was catastrophic because the maximum hourly precipitation intensity, recorded as 3.47 inches (88.1 mm) per hour at Central Park, was unprecedentedly high for the NYC region. The stormwater infrastructure in NYC is built for 1.75 inches (44.5 mm) per hour, and so understanding the dynamic risk associated with Ida can inform city planning efforts for climate change’s impact on short duration extreme precipitation events. We contextualize this storm’s record-breaking hourly intensity within the historical record as well as project its risk in the near- to medium-term future using nonstationary stochastic models. These models are conditioned on average temperature (T avg ) and cooling degree day (CDD) projections from three climate models as a covariate, each with a SSP 126 and SSP 370 scenario. The likelihood of such a storm was slowly increasing even before Ida happened, but the projected aggregate reoccurrence risk of an event of Ida’s magnitude over time from the non-stationary models ranges from 4 to 52 times higher than the risk given by the stationary model. Using CDD as a covariate resulted in risks that were more than twice the magnitude than when using T avg . Presenting both covariates provides a broader envelope of uncertainty, which highlights the importance and nuances in the choice of a regionally appropriate covariate for non-stationary risk analysis.

Mossel, Carolien↗
DOE OSTI2021

Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise

The land ice contribution to global mean sea level rise has not yet been predicted using ice sheet and glacier models for the latest set of socio-economic scenarios, nor using coordinated exploration of uncertainties arising from the various computer models involved. Two recent international projects generated a large suite of projections using multiple models, but primarily used previous-generation scenarios and climate models, and could not fully explore known uncertainties. Here we estimate probability distributions for these projections under the new scenarios using statistical emulation of the ice sheet and glacier models. In this work, we find that limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius would halve the land ice contribution to twenty-first-century sea level rise, relative to current emissions pledges. The median decreases from 25 to 13 centimetres sea level equivalent (SLE) by 2100, with glaciers responsible for half the sea level contribution. The projected Antarctic contribution does not show a clear response to the emissions scenario, owing to uncertainties in the competing processes of increasing ice loss and snowfall accumulation in a warming climate. However, under risk-averse (pessimistic) assumptions, Antarctic ice loss could be five times higher, increasing the median land ice contribution to 42 centimetres SLE under current policies and pledges, with the 95th percentile projection exceeding half a metre even under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming. This would severely limit the possibility of mitigating future coastal flooding. Given this large range (between 13 centimetres SLE using the main projections under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming and 42 centimetres SLE using risk-averse projections under current pledges), adaptation planning for twenty-first-century sea level rise must account for a factor-of-three uncertainty in the land ice contribution until climate policies and the Antarctic response are further constrained.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2021

Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise

The land ice contribution to global mean sea level rise has not yet been predicted1 using ice sheet and glacier models for the latest set of socio-economic scenarios, nor using coordinated exploration of uncertainties arising from the various computer models involved. Two recent international projects generated a large suite of projections using multiple models2,3,4,5,6,7,8, but primarily used previous-generation scenarios9 and climate models10, and could not fully explore known uncertainties. Here we estimate probability distributions for these projections under the new scenarios11,12 using statistical emulation of the ice sheet and glacier models. We find that limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius would halve the land ice contribution to twenty-first-century sea level rise, relative to current emissions pledges. The median decreases from 25 to 13 centimetres sea level equivalent (SLE) by 2100, with glaciers responsible for half the sea level contribution. The projected Antarctic contribution does not show a clear response to the emissions scenario, owing to uncertainties in the competing processes of increasing ice loss and snowfall accumulation in a warming climate. However, under risk-averse (pessimistic) assumptions, Antarctic ice loss could be five times higher, increasing the median land ice contribution to 42 centimetres SLE under current policies and pledges, with the 95th percentile projection exceeding half a metre even under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming. This would severely limit the possibility of mitigating future coastal flooding. Given this large range (between 13 centimetres SLE using the main projections under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming and 42 centimetres SLE using risk-averse projections under current pledges), adaptation planning for twenty-first-century sea level rise must account for a factor-of-three uncertainty in the land ice contribution until climate policies and the Antarctic response are further constrained.

Tamsin L. Edwards↗
DOE OSTI2020

Multi-Mechanism Flood Hazard Assessment: Critical Review of Current Practice and Approaches

This report documents the initial findings from the Nuclear Regulatory commission (NRC)-sponsored research project Methods for Estimating Joint Probabilities of Coincident and Correlated Flooding Mechanisms for Nuclear Power Plant Flood Hazard Assessments.1 This research project is a part of NRC’s Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment (PFHA) Research Program and will aid the development of guidance on the use of PFHA methods to evaluate infrastructure safety for existing and proposed US nuclear power plants (NPPs). More specifically, this project intends to provide technical background for the development of flood hazard curves for multi-mechanism floods (MMFs). MMFs are flood events caused by more than one flooding mechanism (e.g., flood events due to the simultaneous occurrence of precipitation-induced river flooding and storm surge). Project activities include three main tasks: Task 1—Survey of current concepts and methods in assessing MMF hazards; Task 2—Critical assessment of selected methods and approaches for quantifying probabilistic MMF hazard risk; Task 3—Development of example case studies to illustrate best practices for quantifying probabilistic MMF hazard risk The initial findings from Tasks 1 and 2 are documented in this report. Task 1 comprised a survey of approaches and methods that have been applied to understand and assess flood hazards due to MMFs. Task 2 involved a critical review of the selected approaches and methods. To that end, the scope of this report includes documentation of (1) a reconnaissance-level survey of the current state of concepts and practice for MMF hazard assessment; (2) a generalized MMF assessment framework to address the distinctions among various types of flood-forcing phenomena, flood mechanisms (grouped into three mechanism types), and flood severity metrics; (3) a wide-ranging survey of approaches and methods that have been applied to various flooding phenomena and settings; and (4) a critical assessment of MMF hazard assessment methods. Studies were identified involving MMFs related to coastal flooding mechanisms, fluvial (rivers/streams) flooding mechanisms, and associated combinations of coastal and fluvial flooding mechanisms. Studies were also identified that address MMFs involving coastal and fluvial flooding mechanisms as well as coastal flooding mechanisms along with extreme precipitation (without specific attribution to fluvial or pluvial mechanisms). The studies identified for review in this report included assessments at varying spatial scales (from local to global) with differing geographic regions of focus using both observed and synthetic data. The majority of studies identified and reviewed were site-specific assessments focusing on relatively short return periods. Studies considered a range of flood severity metrics, made differing assumptions regarding the occurrence of extrema, and used multiple statistical techniques; the use of copulas for the development of joint distributions was a particularly popular analysis technique. The literature review highlighted the differences among existing studies relative to terminology used, means of presenting results, framework and techniques employed, and level of sophistication regarding the number and types of variables considered. Despite the significant diversity in existing studies, the review identified several promising techniques that will be considered in future work under this project, including the development of joint distributions for MMFs using copula and Bayesian-motivated approaches.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2025

Advancing Multi-Hazard Risk and Safety Considerations for Aging Nuclear Facilities

While probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of nuclear facilities is expected to include internal and external hazards for a risk-informed and performance-based design, the current state of practice treats each hazard independently. However, such an independent treatment of hazards may not account for the correlations between different hazards and their response of and damage to the structures, systems, and components (SSCs) in a plant resulting in underestimating the overall risk. This project proposes to advance the multi-hazard PRA of nuclear facilities to more adequately evaluate concurrent hazards and contribute to an increased safety of nuclear plants. A framework for multi-hazard PRA will be developed by identifying concurrent hazard events (both internal and external) and event sequences that include interdependencies through the response of SSCs. An example application of the multi-hazard PRA framework will be demonstrated by considering a generic pressurized water reactor (PWR) subjected to seismic and internal flooding hazards. Computational models for the response of components will be developed to generated multi-hazard fragility surfaces under seismic and flooding loads. A PRA model consisting of event and fault trees will also be developed to quantify the multi-hazard risk profile and compare it with the independent hazard risk profile. Overall, by advancing the multi-hazard PRA of nuclear facilities, this project enhances nuclear safety and reduces costs by mitigating unforeseen consequences caused by correlations between concurrent hazards.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Inventory and Probabilistic Function of Natural Hazards in the United States: July 19, 2018 - September 18, 2018

The U.S. Department of Energy's National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) developed a standardized risk assessment process that considers the location-specific vulnerabilities and threats (climate-related as well as human-caused) at a site to generate a ranked list of organizational risks and associated mitigation options for reducing those risks. To support this effort, the Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program (SCIPP), a National Oceanic and Atmospheric (NOAA) Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) team, was selected to provide climate science expertise to develop a comprehensive inventory and probabilistic function of natural hazards (e.g., hurricanes, tornadoes, flooding, and sea level rise) for the entire United States by region. The inventory of climate-related hazards and the associated likelihood scores are incorporated into a companion risk assessment tool enabling standardized comparisons of risk at sites across the country.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2026

CONUS-wide Projected Flood Frequency and Uncertainty Estimates, Version 1.0

This dataset presents a large-ensemble of CONUS-wide projected flood frequency and uncertainty estimates across ~2.7 million NHDPlusV2 river reaches over the CONUS. The framework producing this dataset leverages a multi-model, uncertainty-aware modeling framework that allows evaluating shifts in flood frequences at the stream reach level across the CONUS. CONUS-wide ensemble streamflow projections generated from hydrologic simulations driven by downscaled and bias-corrected Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) outputs are used to derive these flood frequency and uncertainty estimates over the period 1980 - 2099. A spatially consistent regional L-moment algorithm is applied across clusters defined by the US Hydrologic Unit Code Subregions (HUC4s and HUC8s) and NHDPlusV2 stream orders to estimate flood frequencies. The dataset also includes at-site based flood estimates that allow for the comparison between local and regional approach-based estimates, assess projected changes, and characterize their uncertainties. For more reliable estimation of rare flood frequencies such as 500 and 1000-year return periods, super-ensemble based estimates are also included in the dataset. This dataset is derived to support the "Impact-Informed Dam Safety Risk Assessment for Securing Hydropower Assests" project for the US Department of Energy (DOE) Hydropower and Hydrokinetic Office (H2O). For further details, refer to Kao et al. (2022), Ghimire et al. (2023), Ghimire et al. (2025), and Hosking and Wallis (1997).

Ghimire, Ganesh [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000242843941)↗
NASA NTRS2021

Perspectives on flood forecast-based early action and opportunities for Earth observations

This paper seeks to identify opportunities to integrate Earth observations (EO) into flood forecast-based early action and propose future directions for research and collaboration between EO and humanitarian communities. Forecast-based early action (FbA) is an approach to shift disaster response toward anticipation to mitigate impacts to at-risk communities; however, timely and accurate information is needed in the development of data-based triggers and thresholds for action. Therefore, this paper considers the readiness of a wide range of EO for flood monitoring and forecasting in the design, operations, and evaluation phases of FbA. The most significant opportunities for EO to inform FbA efforts lie in the design and evaluation phases, as EO can aid in the development of impact-based triggers. The EO products most readily applicable include precipitation, streamflow estimates, and exposure mapping, and those requiring the greatest amount of further research include vulnerability and impact assessments. This paper identifies collaboration opportunities for the EO and humanitarian communities to create tailored products, such as overlays combining flood extents with exposure maps. Such collaboration opportunities can be fostered by open data sharing, data verification efforts, and incentives for supporting boundary organizations capable of enabling the use of EO for FbA.

disasters↗
DOE OSTI2024

Risk Considerations of Transitioning CO2-EOR Field to CO2 storage Field: Case Study

In the United States (U.S.), carbon dioxide (CO2) injection wells at EOR sites are currently regulated as Class II wells under the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Underground Injection Control (UIC) program while dedicated geological CO2 storage (GCS) wells are considered Class VI wells. A CO2-EOR facility considering a transitioning from tertiary oil recovery to injecting CO2 for the primary purpose of long-term storage is required to obtain a Class VI permit where this transition poses an increased risk to underground sources of drinking water. This study considers how transitioning operations from CO2-EOR to storage can impact reservoir plume and pressure transient in the storage envelope, and how these changes could impact area of review and potential unwanted fluid migration. We developed a case study to assess subsurface response and leakage risks associated with a representative, hypothetical operation in a carbonate reservoir. This reservoir transitions from tertiary hydrocarbon recovery to dedicated GCS. Reservoir simulations were run for a set of credible CO2-EOR scenarios to estimate distributions of fluids phases and pressures throughout the model domain after CO2 flooding as well as forecasting the behavior of the reservoir after the transition to a dedicated storage phase. The evolutions from all simulated scenarios were used as the basis for leakage risk quantification using the National Risk Assessment Partnership’s Open-Source Integrated Assessment Model (NRAP-Open-IAM) with a novel reduced-order model to estimate time-dependent leakage of CO2, brine, and hydrocarbon fluids through potentially leaky wells. Results include a description of reservoir response, an estimate of the areal extent that could potentially be impacted by leakage to underground sources of drinking water, and estimates of the magnitude of potential leakage. Considerations for dedicated storage injection well selection, injectivity, and injection scheme performance and potential leakage risk are presented, with implications for risk assessment of well transition discussed. This study presents a risk-based workflow for the Class II to Class VI well transition. Integrating credible numerical simulation of viable CO2-EOR to dedicated CO2 storage with quantitative risk assessment tools, such as the NRAP-Open-IAM, will provide a valuable means to devise operational scenarios and inform decision-making related to storage benefit, leakage risk, and liability. Presented at the SPE/AAPG/SEG Carbon Capture Utilization and Storage Conference in Houston, TX, March 11-13, 2024.

Liu, Guoxiang↗
NASA NTRS1980

The application of mobile satellite services to emergency response communications

The application of an integrated satellite/terrestrial emergency response communications system in disaster relief operations is discussed. Large area coverage communications capability, full-time availability, a high degree of mobility, plus reliability, are pointed out as criteria for an effective emergency communications system. Response time is seen as a major factor determining the possible survival and/or protection of property. These criteria, can not be met by existing communications systems and complete blackouts were experienced during the past decades caused by either interruption or destruction of existing power lines, and overload or inadequacy of remaining lines. Several emergency cases, caused by either hurricanes, tornados, or floods, during which communication via satellite was instrumental to inform rescue and relief teams, are described in detail. Seismic Risk Maps and charts of Major Tectonic Plates Earthquake Epicenters are given, and it is noted that, 35 percent of the U.S. population is living in critical areas. National and international agreements for the implementation of a satellite-aided global Search and Rescue Program is mentioned. Technological and economic breakthroughs are still needed in large multibeam antennas, switching circuits, and low cost mobile ground terminals. A pending plan of NASA to initiate a multiservice program in 1982/83, with a Land Mobile Satellite capability operating in the 806 - 890 MHz band as a major element, may help to accelerate the needed breakthroughs.

Freibaum, J.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Integrating Earth Observations and Socioeconomic Data to Identify Vulnerable Populations and Support Environmental Justice Initiatives

Part of NASA’s Earth Applied Sciences, DEVELOP is a dual capacity building program that introduces communities to applications of NASA Earth observation data to help inform environmental decision making. These projects are conducted by small teams of students, recent graduates, and early and transitioning career professionals and are tailored specifically to end-user decision making processes. Since 2018, a collaboration between NASA DEVELOP, Groundwork USA and its network of trusts, the AGU Thriving Earth Exchange, and local communities such as the City of Cambridge and the City of San Diego, has culminated in a campaign of 14 projects focused on assessing vulnerability to environmental threats such as extreme heat and flooding. These projects have explored the integration of satellite data and socio-economic data to discern populations at risk of being negatively impacted and align with Groundwork’s Climate Safe Neighborhoods Initiative that explores the relationship between historical race-based housing segregation and current and predicted impacts of climate change. This presentation will introduce an overview of the DEVELOP projects using Earth observations to support vulnerabilities assessments and community resilience, the collaboration with Groundwork USA, and future plans for environmental justice efforts at NASA.

Capacity Building↗
NASA NTRS2022

The 28 November 2020 Landslide, Tsunami, and Outburst Flood – A Hazard Cascade Associated With Rapid Deglaciation at Elliot Creek, British Columbia, Canada

We describe and model the evolution of a recent landslide, tsunami, outburst flood, and sediment plume in the southern Coast Mountains, British Columbia, Canada. On November 28, 2020, about 18 million m3 of rock descended 1,000 m from a steep valley wall and traveled across the toe of a glacier before entering a 0.6 km2 glacier lake and producing >100-m high run-up. Water overtopped the lake outlet and scoured a 10-km long channel before depositing debris on a 2-km2 fan below the lake outlet. Floodwater, organic debris, and fine sediment entered a fjord where it produced a 60+km long sediment plume and altered turbidity, water temperature, and water chemistry for weeks. The outburst flood destroyed forest and salmon spawning habitat. Physically based models of the landslide, tsunami, and flood provide real-time simulations of the event and can improve understanding of similar hazard cascades and the risk they pose. Plain Language Summary Glacier retreat exposes unstable slopes that can suddenly fail. We describe and model one such event with far-reaching consequences. The landslide mass (50 million tonnes, equivalent to the combined mass of all Canadian automobiles) entered and suddenly drained a 0.6-km2 alpine lake in the southern Coast Mountains of British Columbia. Displaced water destroyed salmon-spawning habitat over a distance of 8.5 km and created a plume of sediment and organic matter more than 60 km from the head of the fjord into which the floodwaters discharged. Physically based models are able to simulate the hazard cascade, and such models could be used to improve hazard and risk assessments of these events under future climate change.

M. Geertsema↗