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DOE OSTI2024

Streaming Large-Scale Microscopy Data to a Supercomputing Facility

Data management is a critical component of modern experimental workflows. As data generation rates increase, transferring data from acquisition servers to processing servers via conventional file-based methods is becoming increasingly impractical. The 4D Camera at the National Center for Electron Microscopy generates data at a nominal rate of 480 Gbit s -1 (87,000 frames s -1 ⁠), producing a 700 GB dataset in 15 s. To address the challenges associated with storing and processing such quantities of data, we developed a streaming workflow that utilizes a high-speed network to connect the 4D Camera’s data acquisition system to supercomputing nodes at the National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center, bypassing intermediate file storage entirely. In this work, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our streaming pipeline in a production setting through an hour-long experiment that generated over 10 TB of raw data, yielding high-quality datasets suitable for advanced analyses. Additionally, we compare the efficacy of this streaming workflow against the conventional file-transfer workflow by conducting a postmortem analysis on historical data from experiments performed by real users. Our findings show that the streaming workflow significantly improves data turnaround time, enables real-time decision-making, and minimizes the potential for human error by eliminating manual user interactions.

4D-STEM↗

DOE OSTI2022

Dictionary Learning with Accumulator Neurons

The Locally Competitive Algorithm (LCA) uses local competition between non-spiking leaky integrator neurons to infer sparse representations, allowing for potentially real-time execution on massively parallel neuromorphic architectures such as Intel's Loihi processor. Here, we focus on the problem of inferring sparse representations from streaming video using dictionaries of spatiotemporal features optimized in an unsupervised manner for sparse reconstruction. Non-spiking LCA has previously been used to achieve unsupervised learning of spatiotemporal dictionaries composed of convolutional kernels from raw, unlabeled video. We demonstrate how unsupervised dictionary learning with spiking LCA (\hbox{S-LCA}) can be efficiently implemented using accumulator neurons, which combine a conventional leaky-integrate-and-fire (\hbox{LIF}) spike generator with an additional state variable that is used to minimize the difference between the integrated input and the spiking output. We demonstrate dictionary learning across a wide range of dynamical regimes, from graded to intermittent spiking, for inferring sparse representations of both static images drawn from the CIFAR database as well as video frames captured from a DVS camera. On a classification task that requires identification of the suite from a deck of cards being rapidly flipped through as viewed by a DVS camera, we find essentially no degradation in performance as the LCA model used to infer sparse spatiotemporal representations migrates from graded to spiking. We conclude that accumulator neurons are likely to provide a powerful enabling component of future neuromorphic hardware for implementing online unsupervised learning of spatiotemporal dictionaries optimized for sparse reconstruction of streaming video from event based DVS cameras.

artificial intelligence↗

DOE OSTI2023

Drying of tundra landscapes will limit subsidence-induced acceleration of permafrost thaw

We used a model for permafrost hydrology informed by detailed measurements of soil ice content to better understand the potential risk of abrupt permafrost thaw triggered by melting ground ice, a key open question associated with permafrost response to a warming Arctic. Our spatially resolved simulations of a well-characterized site in polygonal tundra near Utqiaġvik, Alaska, agree well with multiple types of observations in the current climate. Projections indicate 63 cm of bulk subsidence from 2006 to 2100 in the strong-warming Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 climate. Permafrost thaw as measured by the increase in active layer thickness (ALT)—the thickness of the soil layer that thaws each summer—is accelerated by subsidence, but the effect is relatively small. The ALT increases from the current-day value of approximately 50 cm to approximately 180 cm by 2100 when subsidence is included compared to about 160 cm when it is neglected. In these simulations, previously identified positive feedbacks between subsidence and thaw are self-limiting on decadal time frames because landscape runoff and increasing evapotranspiration result in drier tundra with weaker surface/atmosphere coupling. These results for a tundra site that is representative of large swathes of the Alaska North Slope suggest that subsidence is unlikely to lead to abrupt thaw over large areas. However, subsidence does have significant effects on the hydrology of polygonal tundra. Specifically, subsidence increases landscape runoff, which helps maintain streamflow in the face of increased evapotranspiration but also causes drier tundra conditions that could have deleterious effects on sensitive Arctic wetland ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Mechanistic understanding of carbon mineralization in fracture systems using microfluidics

Carbon mineralization in mafic and ultramafic rocks presents an opportunity for permanent carbon storage in the Earth's subsurface. However, due to their lower permeability, pre-existing fracture networks are key for mineralization to occur. Therefore, to fully develop this technology, a mechanistic understanding of the mineralization behavior in fractures with the consideration of hydrodynamic components is required. We use high-pressure microfluidics to investigate key mechanisms influencing dissolution–precipitation in a fracture network. The experiments were conducted in micromodels made of natural rocks with a comb-shaped flow channel to mimic a fracture network. This enabled studying the effect of injection rate on coupled dissolution–precipitation in advection and diffusion-dominated flow paths. We used gypsum carbonation as an analog reaction to allow for realistic experimental time frames due to its rapid reaction kinetics. The experimental work is coupled with high-fidelity numerical simulations to enhance our understanding of the parameters affecting the mineralization reaction. Our results demonstrate the importance of flow rate on the rate and nature of the gypsum carbonation reaction revealing that higher flow rates enable deeper penetration of the mineral precipitation front into the dead-end channels. This is an important finding since for sustained mineralization in a fracture network, precipitation in dead-ends while still allowing for flowing fractures is critical. Detailed characterization of the precipitates showed that lower flow rates led to porous and loose precipitates in the form of aragonite while higher flow rates mimicked supersaturation behavior leading to the formation of calcite. The reactive transport simulations further demonstrated the significance of flow velocity in advection-dominated channels to influence the efficiency of carbon mineralization in diffusion-dominated channels, potentially clogging of dead-end channels. These findings highlight the need for coupling chemical, mechanical, and hydrodynamic processes to evaluate the nature and extent of carbon mineralization in fractured media critical for permanent storage in mafic and ultramafic formations. This research further highlights the need for more investigation in potential subsurface fracture generation techniques to aid carbon mineralization.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Dynamically-Reconfigurable Burst-Mode Link Using a Nanosecond Photonic Switch

Fast optical circuit switching has great potential to solve scaling issues with traditional packet-switch based networks and improve bandwidth and power efficiency in datacenter and high-performance computing applications. One difficultly in utilizing a fast optical switch is that the optical signal must be rapidly reacquired after each switching event so as to not significantly impact the overall throughput of the system. In this work we present a system-level integration of a nanosecond-scale $2 \times 2$ silicon photonic switch with a 25-Gbps burst-mode receiver that can lock in 31 ns. A novel FPGA-based control plane was used to generate test data, control the silicon photonic switch and burst-mode receiver, and measure bit errors at 12.5 and 20 Gbps. Error-free links (BER $< 10^{-12}$ ) with system-level reconfiguration times below 60 ns (at 20 Gbps) and 90 ns (at 12.5 Gbps) including bit- and frame-synchronization are demonstrated.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2026

Fast and bright scintillators for ultrafast materials dynamics using 4th generation synchrotron

We present recent advances in fast and bright scintillators for ultrafast X-ray phase contrast imaging of dynamic materials experiments at the upgraded Advanced Photon Source (APS-U), a fourth generation synchrotron. APS-U enables hard X-ray imaging at frame rates of at least 13 MHz (corresponding to 77 ns or shorter interframe intervals), creating a new need for scintillators with faster response and higher light output than lutetium yttrium oxyorthosilicate (LYSO). For indirect imaging and diffraction with ultrafast cameras, commercial lanthanum bromide (LaBr3) and cerium bromide (CeBr3) are promising candidates. These materials exhibit decay times approximately a factor of two shorter than LYSO (around 40 ns) and lutetium oxyorthosilicate (LSO), while maintaining comparable light yield per incident X-ray photon. However, their implementation at APS-U requires addressing several challenges, including material limitations due to hygroscopicity, efficient optical coupling to imaging systems, and high quantum efficiency for conversion of scintillation light, predominantly at wavelengths below 400 nm, into detectable electronic signals. We report results from material characterization, detector integration and packaging, and beamline experiments of materials with impact. In addition, emerging scintillator classes, including perovskites and high-entropy materials, are discussed as potential alternatives for next-generation ultrafast X-ray diagnostics.

Wang, Zhehui [Los Alamos] (ORCID:0000000178264063)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Breakthrough Conductivity Enhancement in Deep Eutectic Solvents via Grotthuss–Type Proton Transport

There is an increasing demand for the development of ion-conducting electrolytes for energy storage systems. Much attention is directed toward deep eutectic solvents as potential candidates. In the search for highly conductive systems, the possibility of designing deep eutectic solvents with Grotthuss-type proton transport is widely overlooked. Herein, ethaline, a mixture of choline chloride and ethylene glycol is used in a 1:2 molar ratio, to induce a significant conductivity increase with the addition of water and sulfuric acid (H 2 SO 4 ). The achieved breakthrough conductivity is analyzed experimentally and simulated with ab initio molecular dynamics (AIMD). At sufficient water content, an H-bonding network is formed that leads to a significant breakthrough conductivity based on H 2 SO 4 -derived proton transfer following the long-established Grotthuss proton transport mechanism. This result is substantiated by the positive deviation from the ideal KCl line in the Walden plot. Specifically, the data series positioned above the reference line indicates a Grotthuss mechanism in action. The AIMD simulations demonstrate proton transfer between water and ethylene glycol, supported by simulation frames captured at various times.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Say where you sample: Increasing site selection transparency in urban ecology

Urban ecological studies have the potential to extend our understanding of socio-ecological systems beyond that of an individual city or region. Cross-comparative empirical work and synthesis are imperative to develop a general urban ecological theory. This can be achieved only if studies are replicable and generalizable. Transparency in methods reporting facilitates generalizability and replicability by documenting the decisions scientists make during the various steps of research design; this is particularly true for sampling design and selection because of their impact on both internal and external validity and the potential to unintentionally introduce bias. Three interdependent aspects of sample design are study sample selection (e.g., specific organisms, soils, or water), sample specification (measurement of specific variable of interest), and site selection (locations sampled). Of these, documentation of site selection—the where component of sample design—is underrepresented in the urban ecology literature. Using a stratified random sample of 158 papers from 12 major urban ecology journals, we investigated how researchers selected study sites in urban ecosystems and evaluated whether their site selection methods were transparent. We extracted data from these papers using a 50-question, theory-based questionnaire and a multiple-reviewer approach. Our sample represented almost 45 years of urban ecology research across 40 different countries. We found that more than 80% of the papers read were not transparent in their site selection methodology. We do not believe site selection methods are replicable for 70% of the papers read. Key weaknesses include incomplete descriptions of populations and sampling frames, urban gradients, sample selection methods, and property access. Low transparency in reporting the where methodology limits urban ecologists’ ability to assess the internal and external validity of studies’ findings and to replicate published studies; it also limits the generalizability of existing studies. The challenges of low transparency are particularly relevant in urban ecology, a field where standard protocols for site selection and delineation are still being developed. These limitations interfere with the fields’ ability to build theory and inform policy. We conclude by offering a set of recommendations to increase transparency, replicability, and generalizability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of Thin Triple-Pane Windows in the PNNL Lab Homes

In recent years, improvements in glass manufacturing have allowed the production of thin triple-pane windows, which are manufactured with a thickness similar to standard double-pane windows. Because this highly insulating “thin triple” glass product can be incorporated into almost any existing window frame and can be fabricated at a modest added cost, the U.S. Department of Energy is sponsoring laboratory and field demonstration testing of thin triple-pane windows to validate thermal performance and installation requirements in real-life field settings. To examine the performance of thin triple-pane windows, the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) evaluated the windows at the PNNL Lab Homes, a matched pair of homes located on PNNL’s campus in Richland, Washington. In this study, one Lab Home contained a complete set of nine thin triple-pane windows, while the other Lab Home contained baseline double-pane windows. The Lab Homes experiments demonstrated significant that replacing clear glass double-pane windows with thin triple-pane windows provided year-round energy savings and reduced peak demand both in the heating and cooling seasons. The Lab Homes experiments also validated other performance benefits of the thin triple-pane windows including reduced condensation potential, more even temperatures throughout the home and near the windows, and reduced sound attenuation through the windows, leaving the home quieter and more comfortable for the occupants.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2022

Analysis of a tau neutrino origin for the near-horizon air shower events observed by the fourth flight of the Antarctic Impulsive Transient Antenna

In this work, we study in detail the sensitivity of the Antarctic Impulsive Transient Antenna (ANITA) to possible ν τ point source fluxes detected via τ-lepton-induced air showers. This investigation is framed around the observation of four upward-going extensive air shower events very close to the horizon seen in ANITA-IV. We find that these four upgoing events are not observationally inconsistent with τ-induced EASs from Earth-skimming ν τ both in their spectral properties as well as in their observed locations on the sky. These four events as well as the overall diffuse and point source exposure to Earth-skimming ν τ are also compared against published ultrahigh-energy neutrino limits from the Pierre Auger Observatory. While none of these four events occurred at sky locations simultaneously visible by Auger, the implied fluence necessary for ANITA to observe these events is in strong tension with limits set by Auger across a wide range of energies and is additionally in tension with ANITA’s Askaryan in-ice neutrino channel above 10 19 eV. We conclude by discussing some of the technical challenges with simulating and analyzing these near horizon events and the potential for future observatories to observe similar events.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Genomic and phenotypic characterization of multidrug-resistant Salmonella enterica serovar Reading isolates involved in a turkey-associated foodborne outbreak

Salmonella is a global bacterial foodborne pathogen associated with a variety of contaminated food products. Poultry products are a common source of Salmonella -associated foodborne illness, and an estimated 7% of human illnesses in the United States are attributed to turkey products. From November 2017 to March 2019, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported a turkey-associated outbreak of multidrug-resistant (MDR; resistant to ≥3 antimicrobial classes) Salmonella enterica serovar Reading ( S . Reading) linked to 358 human infections in 42 US states and Canada. Since S . Reading was seldom linked to human illness prior to this outbreak, the current study compared genomic sequences of S . Reading isolates prior to the outbreak (pre-outbreak) to isolates identified during the outbreak period, focusing on genes that were different between the two groups but common within a group. Following whole-genome sequence analysis of five pre-outbreak and five outbreak-associated turkey/turkey product isolates of S . Reading, 37 genes located within two distinct chromosomal regions were identified only in the pre-outbreak isolates: (1) an ~5 kb region containing four protein-coding genes including uidA which encodes beta-glucuronidase, pgdA encoding peptidoglycan deacetylase, and two hypothetical proteins and (2) an ~28 kb region comprised of 32 phage-like genes and the xerC gene, which encodes tyrosine recombinase (frequently associated with phage genes). The five outbreak isolates also had a deletional event within the cirA gene, introducing a translational frame shift and premature stop codon. The cirA gene encodes a protein with dual receptor functions: a siderophore receptor for transport of dihydroxybenzoylserine as well as a colicin Ia/b receptor. Significant differences for the identified genetic variations were also detected in 75 S . Reading human isolates. Of the 41 S . Reading isolates collected before or in 2017, 81 and 90% of the isolates contained the uidA and pgdA genes, respectively, but only 24% of the isolates collected after 2017 harbored the uidA and pgdA genes. The truncation event within the cirA gene was also significantly higher in isolates collected after 2017 (74%) compared to before or in 2017 (5%). Phenotypic analysis of the S . Reading isolates for colicin and cefiderocol sensitivities (CirA) and β-methyl-D-glucuronic acid utilization (UidA and accessory proteins) supported the genomic data. Overall, a similar genome reduction pattern was generally observed in both the turkey and human isolates of S . Reading during the outbreak period, and the genetic differences were present in genes that could potentially promote pathogen dissemination due to variation in Salmonella colonization, fitness, and/or virulence.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Exploring the Future Energy Value of Long-Duration Energy Storage

Long-duration energy storage is commonly viewed as a key technology for providing flexibility to the grid and broader energy systems over a multidecadal time frame. However, prior work has typically used present-day grid infrastructures to characterize the relationship between the duration and arbitrage value of storage in electricity markets. This study leverages established National Renewable Energy Laboratory grid planning and operations tools, analysis, and data to execute a price-taker model of an energy storage system for several 8760 h price series representative of current and future contiguous United States grid infrastructures with varying shares of variable renewable energy (VRE). We find that the total value of energy storage typically increases with VRE shares, but any increase in the relative value of longer storage durations over time depends on the region and grid mix. Some regions see incremental value increasing notably, up to 20–40 h in 2050, while others do not. The negative effect of lower roundtrip efficiency on value is also found to be scenario-dependent, with the energy value in higher VRE scenarios being less sensitive to roundtrip efficiency and more supportive of longer storage durations. Long-duration storage value and deployment potential are a function of evolving electricity sector infrastructure, markets, and policy, making it critical to consistently revisit potential long-duration storage contributions to the grid.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Circularity Assessment for Silicon Solar Panels Based on Dynamic Material Flow Analysis

Solar photovoltaics (PV) are the fastest growing renewable energy technology for clean, inexpensive, and sustainable electricity generation. Along with numerous technical roadmaps to improve system cost, performance and reliability, the PV industry should also plan to handle large volumes of silicon panel waste, which is initially estimated to be ~13 million metric tons (MT) by 2050 in the U.S. alone. Understanding the magnitude of material needs and how material flows throughout the PV panel life cycle could respond to design, operational and different end-of-life (EOL) circular pathways will help transition into a circular, resource-conserving economy. Herein, we introduce a dynamic material flow analysis (DMFA) framework based on electricity generation to quantify time-series stocks and flows of bulk PV materials (e.g., solar glass and aluminum frames) throughout the life cycles of utility-scale silicon PV systems in the U.S. in the period 2000-2100. We apply the model to a range of scenarios to understand how material demands depend on selected PV-related parameters, different material circularity strategies, and recent module design trends (e.g., bifacial, frameless). We found that float glass and aluminum in PV installations would likely reach 100 million MT and 12 million MT by 2100, respectively, in the baseline scenario. The most influential parameters for PV installation and subsequent waste reduction are found to be module lifetime, module efficiency, annual degradation, and material reduction. Module recycling and component remanufacturing were found to be the most effective material circularity strategies for waste minimization. Panel reuse has negligible savings on waste under current module efficiencies compared to replacements with newer generations with higher efficiency. Ongoing trends to produce larger power frameless modules could save 10 million MT of glass and ~9 million MT of aluminum. Our results enable advanced planning for future materials needs and provide insight into potential opportunities to minimize waste.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Circularity Assessment for Silicon Solar Panels Based on Dynamic Material Flow Analysis: Preprint

circular economy↗

DOE OSTI2026

Prospects for exploring non-standard neutrino properties with argon-based CEvNS experiments

Coherent elastic neutrino-nucleus scattering (CEvNS) provides a powerful frame-work for testing the Standard Model (SM) and searching for new physics at low energies. In this work, we examine the prospects for argon-based CEvNS experiments at stopped-pion sources to perform precision measurements of weak interactions and probe non-standard neutrino properties. Our study focused on the CENNS-10 and CENNS-750 detectors at the Spallation Neutron Source at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, the Coherent Captain Mills (CCM) detector at Los Alamos National Laboratory, and the proposed PIP2-BD detector at Fermilab’s Facility for Dark Matter Discovery (F2D2). Using realistic neutrino fluxes and detector configurations corresponding to these facilities, we evaluate event rates and sensitivities to a range of observables. Within the SM, argon-based CEvNS detectors enable precision tests of electroweak parameters, including the weak mixing angle, at momentum transfers well below the electroweak scale. We also investigate the sensitivity of these experiments to neutrino electromagnetic properties, such as the magnetic moment and effective charge radius, as well as to possible non-standard neutrino interactions with quarks. Together, these studies highlight the potential of argon-based CEvNS experiments as a clean and versatile platform for precision exploration of non-standard neutrino properties.

Carey, Sam [Wayne State U.] (ORCID:000900029607531↗

DOE OSTI2020

Impact of methane and black carbon mitigation on forcing and temperature: a multi-model scenario analysis

The relatively short atmospheric lifetimes of methane (CH 4 ) and black carbon (BC) have focused attention on the potential for reducing anthropogenic climate change by reducing Short-Lived Climate Forcer (SLCF) emissions. This paper examines radiative forcing and global mean temperature results from the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF)-30 multi-model suite of scenarios addressing CH 4 and BC mitigation, the two major short-lived climate forcers. Central estimates of temperature reductions in 2040 from an idealized scenario focused on reductions in methane and black carbon emissions ranged from 0.18–0.26 °C across the nine participating models. Reductions in methane emissions drive 60% or more of these temperature reductions by 2040, although the methane impact also depends on auxiliary reductions that depend on the economic structure of the model. Climate model parameter uncertainty has a large impact on results, with SLCF reductions resulting in as much as 0.3–0.7 °C by 2040. We find that the substantial overlap between a SLCF-focused policy and a stringent and comprehensive climate policy that reduces greenhouse gas emissions means that additional SLCF emission reductions result in, at most, a small additional benefit of ~ 0.1 °C in the 2030–2040 time frame.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Fuel Fabrication Capability Assessment in Support of Advanced Reactor Deployments

More than 30 U.S. companies are designing a variety of advanced reactor concepts, and several companies are planning to demonstrate their reactor designs in the mid-2020s to late 2030s time frame. In 2020, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) announced a series of awards under the Advanced Reactor Demonstration Program (ARDP) to accelerate the successful deployment of 10 of these reactors under three pathways. TerraPower and X-energy were awarded grants under the Advanced Reactor Demonstration Program to deploy their respective Natrium reactor and Xe-100 reactor designs in the next 7–10 years. These demonstrations are in addition to several parallel programs, including the U.S. Department of Defense’s (DoD’s) interest in the development of microreactors, and interest of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration in space nuclear power and propulsion. The National Reactor Innovation Center’s (NRIC’s) mission is to accelerate the demonstration and deployment of advanced reactors; NRIC is partnering with several reactor developers and harnessing the world-class capabilities of the U.S. National Laboratory system to deliver on its mission. Several of these reactor designs will require advanced fuel forms that are not commercially available today, including metal fuel, molten salt fuel, TRi-structural ISOtropic (TRISO) particle fuel, and uranium nitride fuel. Recognizing that there may be potential gaps in the laboratory-scale process development and pilot-scale first-of-a-kind (FOAK) production of these fuel forms leading to delivery of the FOAK cores, NRIC commissioned this study to look at the challenges that need to be overcome for successful deliveries, including the evaluation of existing facilities and the potential need for a new fuel fabrication facility.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Thinking the Other Unthinkable: Disarmament in North Korea and Beyond

The P5 have defined nuclear disarmament as both a process and an end state. Differences of view about the latter are sharp, bitter, and abiding. This has stripped the discussion about the former of much of its potential content and value. Where might we get, practically and conceptually, if we were to set aside for now questions about the ultimate feasibility and desirability of the long-term goal and focus instead on the process? Further, what if we were also to posit that there will be no “fundamental transformation” of the international political system of a kind that would make the nuclear-armed states, and their unarmed neighbors, unconcerned about the effectiveness of mechanisms for peace and security in a disarmed and disarming world? In this context, might it be possible to give states the confidence they would require to take more ambitious incremental steps on the disarmament pathway? How could such steps contribute to the relaxation of international tensions that the NPT itself describes as a critical enabler of disarmament? These questions motivate this timely and innovative new work by Toby Dalton and George Perkovich of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Their core objective is to “infuse needed realism into disarmament discussions.” Using North Korean disarmament as a test case, they explore a series of practical challenges and associated conceptual issues to frame a discussion of the possible disarming nucleararmed states. They begin by rightly noting that neither the advocates of the Ban treaty nor the advocates of North Korean disarmament have set our practical agendas for achieving their aims. They conclude that without an infusion of realism the “two polarized blocks” will continue to “stonewall and repel each other” and thus that “the risks of global nuclear disorder will grow.” This is the latest in the series of Livermore Papers begun in 2017 to stimulate the development of new strategic thought on emerging nuclear challenges. Conceptually, it is a follow-on to the inaugural Livermore Paper by Lewis Dunn on disarmament pathways. The views expressed in these papers are those of the authors and should not be attributed to Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory or any of its sponsors.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗