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NASA NTRS2001

Human Health Effects of Ozone Depletion From Stratospheric Aircraft

This report presents EPA's initial response to NASA's request to advise on potential environmental policy issues associated with the future development of supersonic flight technologies. Consistent with the scope of the study to which NASA and EPA agreed, EPA has evaluated only the environmental concerns related to the stratospheric ozone impacts of a hypothetical HSCT fleet, although recent research indicates that a fleet of HSCT is predicted to contribute to climate warming as well. This report also briefly describes the international and domestic institutional frameworks established to address stratospheric ozone depletion, as well as those established to control pollution from aircraft engine exhaust emissions.

Wey, Chowen↗

NASA NTRS2022

Future Climate Change Impact on Wildfire Danger Over the Mediterranean: the Case of Greece

Recent studies have shown that temperature and precipitation in the Mediterranean are expected to change, contributing to longer and more intense summer droughts that even extend out of season. In connection to this, the frequency of forest fire occurrence and intensity will likely increase. In the present study, the changes in future fire danger conditions are assessed for the different regions of Greece using the Canadian fire weather index (FWI). Gridded future climate output as estimated from three regional climate models from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment are utilized. We use three representative concentration pathways (RCPs) consisting of an optimistic emissions scenario where emissions peak and decline beyond 2020 (RCP2.6), a middle-of-the-road scenario (RCP4.5) and a pessimistic scenario, in terms of mitigation where emissions continue to rise throughout the century (RCP8.5). Based on established critical fire FWI threshold values for Greece, the future change in days with critical fire danger were calculated for different areas of Greece domains. The results show that fire danger is expected to progressively increase in the future especially in the high-end climate change scenario with southern and eastern regions of Greece expected to have up to 40 additional days of high fire danger relative to the late 20th century, on average. Crete, the Aegean Islands, the Attica region, as well as parts of Peloponnese are predicted to experience a stronger increase in fire danger.

Forest fires↗

NASA NTRS2013

Linkages Between Ozone-depleting Substances, Tropospheric Oxidation and Aerosols

Coupling between the stratosphere and the troposphere allows changes in stratospheric ozone abundances to affect tropospheric chemistry. Large-scale effects from such changes on chemically produced tropospheric aerosols have not been systematically examined in past studies. We use a composition-climate model to investigate potential past and future impacts of changes in stratospheric ozone depleting substances (ODS) on tropospheric oxidants and sulfate aerosols. In most experiments, we find significant responses in tropospheric photolysis and oxidants, with small but significant effects on methane radiative forcing. The response of sulfate aerosols is sizeable when examining the effect of increasing future nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions. We also find that without the regulation of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) through the Montreal Protocol, sulfate aerosols could have increased by 2050 by a comparable amount to the decreases predicted due to relatively stringent sulfur emissions controls. The individual historical radiative forcings of CFCs and N2O through their indirect effects on methane (−22.6mW/sq. m for CFCs and −6.7mW/sq. m for N2O) and sulfate aerosols (−3.0mW/sq. m for CFCs and +6.5mW/sq. m for N2O when considering the direct aerosol effect) discussed here are non-negligible when compared to known historical ODS forcing. Our results stress the importance of accounting for stratosphere-troposphere, gas-aerosol and composition-climate interactions when investigating the effects of changing emissions on atmospheric composition and climate.

troposphere↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Southern Rockies Western Slope Agriculture: Identifying Drivers of Rangeland Production for Drought Planning on the Western Slope of the Southern Rockies

Over the last decade, the southern Rocky Mountains of the United States have experienced increasingly severe and variable drought. Local ranchers and landowners have reported strain on their operations, citing decreasing forage production for their cattle and a need to adjust their business models, even considering abandoning their businesses altogether. The study identified Major Land Resource Area-48 (MLRA-48) and northwestern Colorado as the key region for analysis. NASA DEVELOP partnered with the BLM Colorado River Field Office, Colorado State University Extension, USDA Forest Service, and the National Drought Mitigation Center to address stakeholder concerns of the efficacy of existing remotely sensed rangeland production estimation platforms and explore possible early warning climatic indicators of drought. The study identified two key rangeland platforms, the Rangeland Production Monitoring Service (RPMS) and Rangeland Analysis Platform (RAP) and used in-situ data to statistically validate their efficacy. RAP outperformed RPMS in estimating in-situ biomass and was therefore used in our climate modeling. Our study performed a random forest analysis, sampling 1500 points across the study area, comparing monthly RAP biomass estimates to a variety of climatic variables, including mean precipitation, temperature, palmer drought severity index, snow water equivalent, wind speed and direction, and vapor pressure deficit. After analysis, our study determined that vapor pressure deficit is a key indicator in predicting forage production in MLRA-48. Our study recommends the use of RAP in estimating potential forage, with caution for its tendency to overestimate. Our climate analysis provided our partners with greater understanding of the influence of various climatic factors in determining forage production and allows them to assist landowners in planning for future drought.

Addie Gonzalez↗

NASA NTRS2022

An Earth System Digital Twin for Flood Prediction and Analysis

An Earth System Digital Twin (ESDT) is a dynamic, interactive, digital replica of the state and temporal evolution of Earth systems. It integrates multiple models along with observation data, and connecting them with analysis, AI, and visualization tools. Together, these enable users to explore the current state of the Earth system, predict future conditions, and run hypothetical scenarios to understand how the system would evolve under various assumptions. The NASA’s Advanced Information Systems Technology (AIST)’s Integrated Digital Earth Analysis System (IDEAS) project is to establish an extensible architectural solution to develop digital twins of our physical environment for Earth Science. IDEAS delivers a formal system architecture with mechanisms for the outputs of one model to feed into others; for driving models with observation data; and for harmonizing observation data and model outputs for analysis. To validate and demonstrate the IDEAS architecture, this project collaborates with the Space Climate Observatory (SCO)’s FloodDAM project and the Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales (CNES) to focus on floods detection, prediction and their impacts.

Kettig, Peter↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

TPSAS-NF1676L-19005-DND

Science is an economic investment by the public. We will be managing Earth’s climate until civilization moves elsewhere. We currently have no national or international climate observing system, nor a plan to create one. Should we invest in one? Is it worth it? What is the economic value of an advanced climate observing system? How would you estimate it? We have a few traceable estimates of the economic value of weather prediction for severe storms, hurricanes, floods and droughts. Climate scientists often say that the results from their research “will inform societal decisions with trillion dollar impacts”. But is this statement verified and traceable in any way? How could we quantify an economic value to climate science? Recall that climate change science value exists decades into the future. Its value has to be treated as a risk/benefit economic analysis. A rigorous analysis must take into account the uncertainties in climate science, economic impacts, and policy (see Figure 1 below).

Bruce A Wielicki↗

NASA NTRS2000

The Tropical Rainfall Measuring (TRMM) - What Have We Learned and What Does the Future Hold?

Rainfall is important in the hydrological cycle and to the lives and welfare of humans. In addition to being a life-giving resource, rainfall processes also plays a crucial role in the dynamics of the global atmospheric circulation. Three-fourths of the energy that drives the atmospheric wind circulation comes from the latent heat released by tropical precipitation. It varies greatly in space and time. The rain-producing cloud systems may last several hours or days. Their dimensions range from 10 km to several hundred km. This makes it difficult to incorporate rainfall directly large-scale weather and climate models. Until the end of 1997, precipitation in the global tropics was not known to within a factor of two. Regarding "global warming", the various large-scale models differed among themselves in the predicted magnitude of the warming and in the expected regional effects of these temperature and moisture changes. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite has yielded important interim results related to rainfall observations, data assimilation and model forecast skills when rainfall data is assimilated. This talk will summarize where the TRMM science team is with regards to answering some of these important scientific challenges, as well as discuss the future Global Precipitation Mission which will provide 3 hourly rainfall coverage and offers some unique collaborative potential for NOAA and NASA.

Kummerow, C.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Laser Induced Fluorescence (LIF) as a Remote Sensing Tool: A Review

Vegetational changes are primary indicators of the present and future ecological status of the globe. These are changes which not only impact upon the primary productivity, but the total of the biogeochemical processes occurring on the planet. The impacts of global climatic and other environmental changes on vegetation must be monitored by some means in order to develop models which will allow us to predict long term effects. Large scale monitoring is now possible only with remote sensing systems, primarily passive reflectance, obtained by the use of satellite and aircraft platforms. However, passive reflectance techniques at this time are limited in their ability to detect subtle changes in the concentration and oxidation states of the many compounds involved in the light reactions of photosynthesis. Knowledge of these changes we consider to be fundamental in the remote assessment of both the rate and efficiency of photosynthesis and also the early detection of stress damage. The above factors pointed to the desirability of a sensing technique with the sensitivity and specificity necessary for detecting and quantifying those biological entities involved in photosynthesis. Another optical technique for vegetation monitoring is fluorescence. Previously, the lack of adequate excitation light sources and detector technologies have limited the use of fluorescence on intact plant leaves in the field. It is only recently with the advent of lasers with short pulse duration and advanced detector technologies that fluorescence measurements in the remote mode have become possible in the presence of ambient light.

Chappelle, E. W.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Overview for the reanalysis of Mariner 9 UV spectrometer data for ozone, cloud, and dust abundances, and their interaction over climate timescales

Mariner 9 UV spectrometer data were reinverted for the ozone abundance, cloud abundance, dust abundance, and polar-cap albedo. The original reduction of the spectra ignored the presence of atmospheric dust and clouds, even though their abundance is substantial and can mask appreciable amounts of ozone if not accounted for (Lindner, 1988). The Mariner 9 ozone data has been used as a benchmark in all theoretical models of atmospheric composition, escape, and photochemistry. A second objective is to examine the data for the interrelationship of the ozone cycle, dust cycle, and cloud cycle, on an annual, inter-annual, and climatic basis, testing predictions by Lindner (1988). This also has implications for many terrestrial ozone studies, such as the ozone hole, acid rain, and ozone-smog. A third objective is to evaluate the efficacy of the reflectance spectroscopy technique at retrieving the ozone abundance on Mars. This would be useful for planning ozone observations on future Mars missions or the terrestrial troposphere.

Lindner, Bernhard Lee↗

NASA NTRS1991

Future chlorine-bromine loading and ozone depletion

The prediction of future ozone requires three elements: (1) a scenario for the net emissions of chemically and radiatively active trace gases from the land and oceans; (2) a global atmospheric model that projects the accumulation of these gases; and (3) a chemical transport model that describes the distribution of ozone for a prescribed atmospheric composition and climate. This chapter, of necessity, presents models for all three elements and focuses on the following: (1) atmospheric abundance of chlorine and bromine in the form of halocarbons; and (2) the associated perturbations to stratospheric ozone.

Prather, Michael J.↗

NASA NTRS2024

Big Bend Ecological Forecasting: Integrating Earth Observations Into Invasive Species Management Decisions in Big Bend National Park in Texas

Located in Brewster County Texas, U.S., along the Texas-Mexico border, Big Bend National Park is 3,243 square kilometers of desert, mountains, and rivers. NASA’s MSFC Spring 2024 DEVELOP Team partnered with the National Park Service (NPS), to address the environmental concern of perineal invasive grasses in Big Bend National Park. Buffelgrass (Cenchrus ciliaris), introduced to the park in the 1940’s, poses an ongoing threat, and causes habitat destruction for many of the park’s native ecosystems. Buffelgrass amplifies fire risk in the park, aids in the destruction of historic structures, and alters stream channels. To address the rising concern of Buffelgrass presence, unique advanced spatial technique applications were necessary to construct a habitat suitability model and perform a comprehensive fire risk assessment. A habitat suitability model was developed considering climate, vegetation, and phenological variables, in addition to physical and topographical variables. Subsequently, a fire risk model was developed, taking into account fire history data, accessibility factors, climate trends and predictions, along with developed areas. Multi-Source Land Surface Phenology (LSP) Sentinel-2 and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) imagery were used to predict Buffelgrass hotspot locations throughout the park. These analyses allowed the identification of optimal Buffelgrass habitat and hotspot locations, as well as park zones that reflect the greatest risk for future Buffelgrass invasion and fire risk. The collective results of the habitat suitability model, fire risk assessment, and Buffelgrass hot spot identification will allow the NPS to facilitate efficient mitigation measures and management strategies, and improved resource allocation where it’s most needed.

remote sensing↗

NASA NTRS1998

NASA's Earth Science Enterprise: Future Science Missions, Objectives and Challenges

NASA has been actively involved in studying the planet Earth and its changing environment for well over thirty years. Within the last decade, NASA's Earth Science Enterprise has become a major observational and scientific element of the U.S. Global Change Research Program. NASA's Earth Science Enterprise management has developed a comprehensive observation-based research program addressing all the critical science questions that will take us into the next century. Furthermore, the entire program is being mapped to answer five Science Themes (1) land-cover and land-use change research (2) seasonal-to-interannual climate variability and prediction (3) natural hazards research and applications (4) long-term climate-natural variability and change research and (5) atmospheric ozone research. Now the emergence of newer technologies on the horizon and at the same time continuously declining budget environment has lead to an effort to refocus the Earth Science Enterprise activities. The intent is not to compromise the overall scientific goals, but rather strengthen them by enabling challenging detection, computational and space flight technologies those have not been practically feasible to date. NASA is planning faster, cost effective and relatively smaller missions to continue the science observations from space for the next decade. At the same time, there is a growing interest in the world in the remote sensing area which will allow NASA to take advantage of this by building strong coalitions with a number of international partners. The focus of this presentation is to provide a comprehensive look at the NASA's Earth Science Enterprise in terms of its brief history, scientific objectives, organization, activities and future direction.

Habib, Shahid↗

NASA NTRS2005

Land surface water cycles observed with satellite sensors

Acceleration of the global water cycle may lead to increased global precipitation, faster evaporation and a consequent exacerbation of hydrologic extreme. In the U.S. national assessment of the potential consequences of climate variability and change, two GCMs (CGCM1 and HadCM2) show a large increase in precipitation in the future over the southwestern U.S. particularly during winter (Felzer and Heard, 1999). Increased precipitation potentially has important impacts on agricultural and water use in the southeast U.S. (Hatch et al., 1999) and in the central Great Plains (Nielsen, 1997). A hurricane model predicts a 40% precipitation increase for severe hurricanes affecting southeastern Florida, which provokes substantially greater flooding that could negate most of the benefits of present water-management practices in this basin (Gutowski et al., 1994). Thus, it is important to observe the hydroclimate on a continuous longterm basis to address the question of increased precipitation in the enhanced water cycle.

droughts↗

NASA NTRS2023

Heat Stress to Jeopardize Crop Production in the US Corn Belt Based on Downscaled CMIP5 Projections

CONTEXT Global food security faces increasing challenges from the changing climate. Changes of agricultural output from some of the most productive regions such as the US Corn Belt can largely affect the world's food market. Developing predictive understanding of the agricultural risk of climate change and potential mitigation strategies is critical for the global food security. OBJECTIVE The objective of this study is to assess the responses of maize and soybean yield to projected climate changes in the Corn Belt, identify the shifting environment stressors on crop yield, and tackle potential climate adaptation strategies. METHODS We drive a process-based model, the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer, with high-resolution statistically downscaled and bias-corrected historical and future climates from ten CMIP5 models in the MACA-2 database. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS The multi-model ensemble mean suggests a 12% decrease of maize yield by mid-century and 40% by late century, with a high degree of model consensus in the direction of changes; for individual models, the projected decrease of maize yield by late century ranges from <5% to over 80%, with the worst crop outcome corresponding to the most sensitive climate models. Soybean yield is projected to increase by midcentury with a high degree of model consensus, but such consensus is lost by late century as some projections shift to significant decreases. Crop yield in the Corn Belt is currently limited by water stress, but is projected to be increasingly limited by heat stress as well after the midcentury. The mounting heat stress will drive the most productive zone for maize to shift from central to northern part of the Corn Belt, but the projected increase in the northern states cannot fully compensate for the decrease in the south, causing the total production to decrease if agricultural practice stays the same. Earlier planting can alleviate only a small fraction of the heat-induced crop loss in a warmer climate. Climate change will (at least partially) offset the yield boost caused by agricultural technology and intensification. SIGNIFICANCE This study advances our predictive understanding of crop yield responses to climate change, and suggests that a multitude of strategies will be needed to address the climate change challenges for the U.S. agriculture.

Crop yield↗

NASA NTRS2021

Impact of Regional Northern Hemisphere Mid-latitude Anthropogenic Sulfur Dioxide Emissions on Local and Remote Tropospheric Oxidants

The unintended consequences of reductions in regional anthropogenic sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions implemented to protect human health are poorly understood. SO2 decreases began in the 1970s in the US and Europe and are expected to continue into the future, while recent emissions decreases in China are also projected to continue. In addition to the well-documented climate effects (warming) from reducing aerosols, tropospheric oxidation is impacted via aerosol modification of photolysis rates and radical sinks. Impacts on the hydroxyl radical and other trace constituents directly affect climate and air quality metrics such as surface ozone levels. We use the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Atmospheric Model version 3 nudged towards National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis wind velocities to estimate the impact of SO2 emissions from the US, Europe, and China by differencing a control simulation with an otherwise identical simulation in which 2015 anthropogenic SO2 emissions are set to zero over one of the regions. Springtime sulfate aerosol changes occur both locally to the emission region and also throughout the Northern Hemispheric troposphere, including remote oceanic regions and the Arctic. Hydroperoxy (HO2) radicals are directly removed via heterogeneous chemistry on aerosol surfaces, including sulfate, in the model, and we find that sulfate aerosol produced by SO2 emissions from the three individual northern mid-latitude regions strongly reduces both HO2 and hydroxyl (OH) by up to 10 % year-round throughout most of the troposphere north of 30∘ N latitude. Regional SO2 emissions significantly increase nitrogen oxides (NOx) by about 5 %–8 % throughout most of the free troposphere in the Northern Hemisphere by increasing the NOx lifetime as the heterogeneous sink of HO2 on sulfate aerosol declines. Despite the NOx increases, tropospheric ozone decreases at northern mid-latitudes by 1 %–4 % zonally averaged and by up to 5 ppbv in summertime surface air over China, where the decreases in HO2 and OH suppress O3 production. Since 2015 anthropogenic SO2 emissions in China exceed those in the US or Europe, the oxidative response is greatest for the China perturbation simulation. Chemical effects of aerosols on oxidation (reactive uptake) dominate over radiative effects (photolysis rates), the latter of which are only statistically significant locally for the large perturbation over China. We find that the SO2 emissions decrease in China, which has yet to be fully realized, will have the largest impact on oxidants and related species in the Northern Hemisphere free troposphere compared to future decreases in Europe or the US. Our results bolster previous calls for a multipollutant strategy for air pollution mitigation to avoid the unintended consequence of aerosol removal leading to surface ozone increases that offset or mask surface ozone gains achieved by regulation of other pollutants, especially in countries where current usage of high-sulfur emitting fuels may be phased out in the future.

anthropogenic sulfur dioxide emissions↗

NASA NTRS1985

Understanding climate: A strategy for climate modeling and predictability research, 1985-1995

The emphasis of the NASA strategy for climate modeling and predictability research is on the utilization of space technology to understand the processes which control the Earth's climate system and it's sensitivity to natural and man-induced changes and to assess the possibilities for climate prediction on time scales of from about two weeks to several decades. Because the climate is a complex multi-phenomena system, which interacts on a wide range of space and time scales, the diversity of scientific problems addressed requires a hierarchy of models along with the application of modern empirical and statistical techniques which exploit the extensive current and potential future global data sets afforded by space observations. Observing system simulation experiments, exploiting these models and data, will also provide the foundation for the future climate space observing system, e.g., Earth observing system (EOS), 1985; Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) North, et al. NASA, 1984.

Thiele, O.↗

NASA NTRS2000

The Finer Details: Climate Modeling

If you want to know whether you will need sunscreen or an umbrella for tomorrow's picnic, you can simply read the local weather report. However, if you are calculating the impact of gas combustion on global temperatures, or anticipating next year's rainfall levels to set water conservation policy, you must conduct a more comprehensive investigation. Such complex matters require long-range modeling techniques that predict broad trends in climate development rather than day-to-day details. Climate models are built from equations that calculate the progression of weather-related conditions over time. Based on the laws of physics, climate model equations have been developed to predict a number of environmental factors, for example: 1. Amount of solar radiation that hits the Earth. 2. Varying proportions of gases that make up the air. 3. Temperature at the Earth's surface. 4. Circulation of ocean and wind currents. 5. Development of cloud cover. Numerical modeling of the climate can improve our understanding of both the past and, the future. A model can confirm the accuracy of environmental measurements taken. in, the past and can even fill in gaps in those records. In addition, by quantifying the relationship between different aspects of climate, scientists can estimate how a future change in one aspect may alter the rest of the world. For example, could an increase in the temperature of the Pacific Ocean somehow set off a drought on the other side of the world? A computer simulation could lead to an answer for this and other questions. Quantifying the chaotic, nonlinear activities that shape our climate is no easy matter. You cannot run these simulations on your desktop computer and expect results by the time you have finished checking your morning e-mail. Efficient and accurate climate modeling requires powerful computers that can process billions of mathematical calculations in a single second. The NCCS exists to provide this degree of vast computing capability.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2013

Using Air Temperature to Quantitatively Predict the MODIS Fractional Snow Cover Retrieval Errors over the Continental US (CONUS)

In the middle to high latitude and alpine regions, the seasonal snow pack can dominate the surface energy and water budgets due to its high albedo, low thermal conductivity, high emissivity, considerable spatial and temporal variability, and ability to store and then later release a winters cumulative snowfall (Cohen, 1994; Hall, 1998). With this in mind, the snow drought across the U.S. has raised questions about impacts on water supply, ski resorts and agriculture. Knowledge of various snow pack properties is crucial for short-term weather forecasts, climate change prediction, and hydrologic forecasting for producing reliable daily to seasonal forecasts. One potential source of this information is the multi-institution North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) project (Mitchell et al., 2004). Real-time NLDAS products are used for drought monitoring to support the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) and as initial conditions for a future NCEP drought forecast system. Additionally, efforts are currently underway to assimilate remotely-sensed estimates of land-surface states such as snowpack information into NLDAS. It is believed that this assimilation will not only produce improved snowpack states that better represent snow evolving conditions, but will directly improve the monitoring of drought.

MODIS↗