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DOE OSTI2024

Case study on climate change effects and food security in Southeast Asia

Agriculture, a cornerstone of human civilization, faces rising challenges from climate change, resource limitations, and stagnating yields. Precise crop production forecasts are crucial for shaping trade policies, development strategies, and humanitarian initiatives. This study introduces a comprehensive machine learning framework designed to predict crop production. We leverage CMIP5 climate projections under a moderate carbon emission scenario to evaluate the future suitability of agricultural lands and incorporate climatic data, historical agricultural trends, and fertilizer usage to project yield changes. Our integrated approach forecasts significant regional variations in crop production across Southeast Asia by 2028, identifying potential cropland utilization. Specifically, the cropland area in Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Viet Nam is projected to decline by more than 10% if no action is taken, and there is potential to mitigate that loss. Moreover, rice production is projected to decline by 19% in Viet Nam and 7% in Thailand, while the Philippines may see a 5% increase compared to 2021 levels. Our findings underscore the critical impacts of climate change and human activities on agricultural productivity, offering essential insights for policy-making and fostering international cooperation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Radiation effects on materials for electrochemical energy storage systems

Batteries and electrochemical capacitors (ECs) are of critical importance for applications such as electric vehicles, electric grids, and mobile devices. However, the performance of existing battery and EC technologies falls short of meeting the requirements of high energy/high power and long durability for increasing markets such as the automotive industry, aerospace, and grid-storage utilizing renewable energies. Therefore, improving energy storage materials performance metrics is imperative. In the past two decades, radiation has emerged as a new means to modify functionalities in energy storage materials. There exists a common misconception that radiation with energetic ions and electrons will always cause radiation damage to target materials, which might potentially prevent its applications in electrochemical energy storage systems. But in this review, we summarize recent progress in radiation effects on materials for electrochemical energy storage systems to show that radiation can have both beneficial and detrimental effects on various types of energy materials. Prior work suggests that fundamental understanding toward the energy loss mechanisms that govern the resulting microstructure, defect generation, interfacial properties, mechanical properties, and eventual electrochemical properties is critical. Here, we discuss radiation effects in the following categories: (1) defect engineering, (2) interface engineering, (3) radiation-induced degradation, and (4) radiation-assisted synthesis. We analyze the significant trends and provide our perspectives and outlook on current research and future directions in research seeking to harness radiation as a method for enhancing the synthesis and performance of battery materials.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Distributed Wind Market Report: 2024 Edition

The annual Distributed Wind Market Report provides stakeholders with market statistics and analysis along with insights into market trends and characteristics for wind technologies used as distributed energy resources. This report presents the distributed wind market from 2003 through 2023. Key findings with respect to installed capacity, deployment trends, customer types, incentives, policies, installed costs and performance, and the future outlook are presented.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

EVALUATING NUCLEAR SECURITY IMPLICATIONS OF THE SPLINTERNET

The internet, which for years has been viewed as a global online commons with standardized protocols but few regulations is, according to some experts, starting to mirror the contentious political and commercial contours of the physical world. Contributing to this is the rise in data breaches, cyber-enabled attacks on critical infrastructure, government surveillance operations, theft of intellectual property, manipulation of electoral processes, and perceived erosion of privacy, all of which are resulting in a growing skepticism that an open internet will naturally serve the best interests of users, communities, countries, and the global economy. In addition, the rapidly emerging and increasingly lucrative power of data has global superpowers scrambling to protect their informational sovereignty as an urgent matter of national security. Underscoring this urgency is the fact that, despite its global reach and cosmopolitan contributor base, internet infrastructure and governance of the World Wide Web remain largely under U.S. corporate auspices, which reinforces the perception of U.S. control. Whether fragmentation is politically, economically, or socially motivated, there appears to be a growing appetite for an internet that is partitioned and controlled at the national level. From “the Great Firewall of China” to the “Halal” internet of Iran, the trend towards a “Splinternet” has courts and governments embarking on what some call a "legal arms race" to impose a maze of national or regional rules, often conflicting, in the digital realm. The paper explores the emerging Splinternet phenomenon, analyses the implications of this trend on nuclear security, and identifies questions that present opportunities for future research.

Internet, Data Security, Cyber Security, Nuclear S↗

DOE OSTI2023

An Inventory of AI-ready Benchmark Data for US Fires, Heatwaves, and Droughts

Extreme weather events, including fires, heatwaves, and droughts, have significant impacts on earth, environmental, and energy systems. Mechanistic and predictive understanding, as well as probabilistic risk assessment of these extreme weather events, are crucial for detecting, planning for, and responding to these extremes. Records of extreme weather events provide an important data source for understanding present and future extremes, but the existing data needs preprocessing before it can be used for analysis. Moreover, there are many nonstandard metrics defining the levels of severity or impacts of extremes. In this study, we compile a comprehensive benchmark data inventory of extreme weather events, including fires, heatwaves, and droughts. The dataset covers the period from 2001 to 2020 with a daily temporal resolution and a spatial resolution of 0.5°×0.5° (~55km×55km) over the continental United States (CONUS), and a spatial resolution of 1km × 1km over the Pacific Northwest (PNW) region, together with the co-located and relevant meteorological variables. By exploring and summarizing the spatial and temporal patterns of these extremes in various forms of marginal, conditional, and joint probability distributions, we gain a better understanding of the characteristics of climate extremes. The resulting AI/ML-ready data products can be readily applied to ML-based research, fostering and encouraging AI/ML research in the field of extreme weather. This study can contribute significantly to the advancement of extreme weather research, aiding researchers, policymakers, and practitioners in developing improved preparedness and response strategies to protect communities and ecosystems from the adverse impacts of extreme weather events. Usage Notes We presented a long term (2001-2020) and comprehensive data inventory of historical extreme events with daily temporal resolution covering the separate spatial extents of CONUS (0.5°×0.5°) and PNW(1km×1km) for various applications and studies. The dataset with 0.5°×0.5° resolution for CONUS can be used to help build more accurate climate models for the entire CONUS, which can help in understanding long-term climate trends, including changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme events, predicting future extreme events as well as understanding the implications of extreme events on society and the environment. The data can also be applied for risk accessment of the extremes. For example, ML/AI models can be developed to predict wildfire risk or forecast HWs by analyzing historical weather data, and past fires or heateave , allowing for early warnings and risk mitigation strategies. Using this dataset, AI-driven risk assessment models can also be built to identify vulnerable energy and utilities infrastructure, imrpove grid resilience and suggest adaptations to withstand extreme weather events. The high-resolution 1km×1km dataset ove PNW are advantageous for real-time, localized and detailed applications. It can enhance the accuracy of early warning systems for extreme weather events, helping authorities and communities prepare for and respond to disasters more effectively. For example, ML models can be developed to provide localized HW predictions for specific neighborhoods or cities, enabling residents and local emergency services to take targeted actions; the assessment of drought severity in specific communities or watersheds within the PNW can help local authorities manage water resources more effectively.

Lin, Xinming↗

DOE OSTI2023

Global and northern-high-latitude net ecosystem production in the 21st century from CMIP6 experiments

Climate warming is accelerating the changes in the global terrestrial ecosystems and particularly those in the northern high latitudes (NHLs; poleward of 50° N) and rendering the land–atmosphere carbon exchange highly uncertain. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) employs the most updated climate models to estimate terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics driven by a new set of socioeconomic and climate change pathways. By analyzing the future (2015–2100) carbon fluxes estimated by 10 CMIP6 models, we quantitatively evaluated the projected magnitudes, trends, and uncertainties in the global and NHL carbon fluxes under four scenarios plus the role of NHLs in the global terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics. Overall, the models suggest that the global and NHL terrestrial ecosystems will be consistent carbon sinks in the future, and the magnitude of the carbon sinks is projected to be larger under scenarios with higher radiative forcing. By the end of this century, the models on average estimate the NHL net ecosystem productivity (NEP) as 0.54 ± 0.77, 1.01 ± 0.98, 0.97 ± 1.62, and 1.05 ± 1.83 Pg C yr –1 under SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585, respectively. The uncertainties are not substantially reduced compared with earlier results, e.g., the Coupled Climate–Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP). Although NHLs contribute a small fraction of the global carbon sink (~13 %), the relative uncertainties in NHL NEP are much larger than the global level. Our results provide insights into future carbon flux evolutions under future scenarios and highlight the urgent need to constrain the large uncertainties associated with model projections for making better climate mitigation strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Harvest legacies and climate change interact to shape forest structure and biomass through time

Forest structural change driven by climate trends has been observed worldwide and is expected to increase in the future. Management of forest structure has been an important tool for mitigating the impacts of climate change but forest structure may shift independently of management goals as it interacts with climate change. Here, we investigated the long-term impacts of harvest-based management strategies on structure and resistance to climate-induced biomass loss using a process-based ecosystem model for a midwestern USA hardwood forest. We identified aboveground biomass loss events and compared the cumulative number of these events following a five-year period of active management under four management strategies and two climate change scenarios. Management legacy had the clearest impact on climate-driven biomass loss over the mid-term (∼25 years) with the shelterwood scenario experiencing no loss events during this period. However, by the end of the century legacy effects faded and climate change severity became the driver of differences as greater warming scenarios experienced twice the loss events, and end-of-century loss events were 3–10 times more frequent than mid-century events. We found that while structure was distinct among harvest scenarios through the mid-century, differences were negligible by the end-of-century; identical to when management correlated with loss event frequency. Here, we found that loss events were preceded by a drop in precipitation two years prior, while no specific forest structure preceded a loss event. However, the structures preceding a biomass loss event were distinct across different legacies, implying additional influences of past management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Advancement of Actinide Metal–Organic Framework Chemistry via Synthesis of Pu-UiO-66

We report the synthesis and characterization of the first plutonium metal–organic framework (MOF). Pu-UiO-66 expands the established UiO-66 series, which includes transition metal, lanthanide, and early actinide elements in the hexanuclear nodes. The thermal stability and porosity of Pu-UiO-66 were experimentally determined, and multifaceted computational methods were used to corroborate experimental values, examine inherent defects in the framework, decipher spectroscopic signatures, and elucidate the electronic structure. The crystallization of a plutonium chain side product provides direct evidence of the competition that occurs between modulator and linker in MOF syntheses. Ultimately, the synthesis of Pu-UiO-66 demonstrates adept control of Pu(IV) coordination under hydrolysis-prone conditions, provides an opportunity to extend trends across isostructural UiO-66 frameworks, and serves as the foundation for future plutonium MOF chemistry.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

Photosynthetic semiconductor biohybrids for solar-driven biocatalysis

Photosynthetic semiconductor biohybrids integrate the best attributes of biological whole-cell catalysts and semiconducting nanomaterials. Enzymatic machinery enveloped in its native cellular environment offers exquisite product selectivity and low substrate activation barriers while semiconducting nanomaterials harvest light energy stably and efficiently. Here, we illustrate the evolution and advances of photosynthetic semiconductor biohybrids focusing on the conversion of CO 2 to value-added chemicals. We begin by considering the potential of this nascent field to meet global energy challenges while comparing it to alternate approaches. This is followed by a discussion of the advantageous coupling of electrotrophic organisms with light-active electrodes for solar-to-chemical conversion. We detail the dynamic investigation of photosensitized microorganisms creating direct light harvesting within unicellular organisms while describing complementary developments in the understanding of charge transfer mechanisms and cytoprotection. Lastly, we focus on trends and improvements needed in photosynthetic semiconductor biohybrids in order to address future challenges and enhance their widespread adoption for the production of solar chemicals.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Impact of the isotope effect on divertor detachment and pedestal structure in DIII-D

Dedicated H-mode hydrogen experiments have been conducted at DIII-D and are compared to similar deuterium plasmas under a range of divertor conditions, revealing significant effects of the isotope mass on divertor and pedestal conditions. H-mode confinement is found to be systematically lower in hydrogen and experiences a worse degradation with increased fueling. This coincides with a higher ne,sep in hydrogen for similar fueling rates. When ne,ped is matched in hydrogen and deuterium as are the ne and Te pedestal structures, the target conditions deviate strongly from each other. An analysis of two major factors in the pedestal structure, pedestal stability and neutral fueling, shows they are not sufficient to explain either the pedestal differences between isotopes or the hydrogen pedestal structure respectively. An analysis of hydrogen and deuterium density ramps demonstrates a 20% higher ion current and a 30% higher upstream density at detachment onset in hydrogen. The characteristics of target heat flux and divertor radiation are shown to change significantly with the isotope mass in each divertor operational regime. The results shown here indicate divertor conditions trend with ion mass in a manner beneficial for divertor performance in future devices.

Mattes, Ray [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (Un↗

DOE OSTI2022

Multi-modelling predictions show high uncertainty of required carbon input changes to reach a 4‰ target

Soils store vast amounts of carbon (C) on land, and increasing soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in already managed soils such as croplands may be one way to remove C from the atmosphere, thereby limiting subsequent warming. The main objective of this study was to estimate the amount of additional C input needed to annually increase SOC stocks by 4‰ at 16 long-term agricultural experiments in Europe, including exogenous organic matter (EOM) additions. We used an ensemble of six SOC models and ran them under two configurations: (1) with default parametrization and (2) with parameters calibrated site-by-site to fit the evolution of SOC stocks in the control treatments (without EOM). We compared model simulations and analysed the factors generating variability across models. The calibrated ensemble was able to reproduce the SOC stock evolution in the unfertilised control treatments. We found that, on average, the experimental sites needed an additional 1.5 ± 1.2 Mg C ha -1 year -1 to increase SOC stocks by 4‰ per year over 30 years, compared to the C input in the control treatments (multi-model median ± median standard deviation across sites). That is, a 119% increase compared to the control. While mean annual temperature, initial SOC stocks and initial C input had a significant effect on the variability of the predicted C input in the default configuration (i.e., the relative standard deviation of the predicted C input from the mean), only water-related variables (i.e., mean annual precipitation and potential evapotranspiration) explained the divergence between models when calibrated. Here, our work highlights the challenge of increasing SOC stocks in agriculture and accentuates the need to increasingly lean on multi-model ensembles when predicting SOC stock trends and related processes. To increase the reliability of SOC models under future climate change, we suggest model developers to better constrain the effect of water-related variables on SOC decomposition.

4 per 1000 initiative↗

DOE OSTI2026

The Strength of Coupling to the Southern Ocean Modulates Tropical Eastern Pacific Variability and Forced Response

Despite rising global-mean temperatures, large parts of the Southern Ocean and tropical eastern Pacific Ocean have cooled during the satellite era. These regions may be linked by teleconnections, with Southern Ocean cooling contributing to tropical eastern Pacific cooling. We demonstrate that, on average, state-of-the-art Earth system models (ESMs) underestimate the magnitude of interaction between the Southern Ocean and tropical eastern Pacific Ocean. The strength of the teleconnection is shown to be mediated by the magnitude of the positive cloud–sea surface temperature (SST) feedback in the subtropical eastern Pacific Ocean and the strength of the wind–evaporation–SST (WES) feedback. We link excessive precipitation in the tropical Pacific south of the equator to the strength of the Southern Ocean–eastern Pacific teleconnection. This model bias, known as the double intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), is shown to be related to erroneous convection south of the equator, weakened cross-equatorial trade winds, and unfavorable meteorological conditions for marine boundary layer subtropical clouds. We postulate there is a two-way interaction, in which a double-ITCZ occurs with weaker cloud–SST and WES feedbacks, which in turn impact local SSTs and amplify the double-ITCZ. Models with a stronger Southern Ocean to tropical Pacific teleconnection tend to exhibit more multidecadal variability in the Walker circulation, ITCZ, and west–east equatorial SST gradient, as well as greater delayed warming in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean resulting from delayed Southern Ocean warming under greenhouse gas forcing. These results provide insight into why ESMs struggle to replicate observed tropical Pacific temperature trend patterns and point to ITCZ location as a key target for improvement in future model development.

Climate change↗

DOE OSTI2025

Futureproofing through 2035 for the AI and HPC Power Density Trend

HPC and AI are businesses necessitating growth for providing performance improvement with increased power and cooling. As HPC and AI computers and their supporting facilities approach utility scale with a frequency of technology innovation outpacing utility and construction timelines, understanding and designing for this trend has become critical. This paper will provide historical trend data for facilities and compute racks, relate power trend data to cooling technology capabilities, and reason through constraints impacting anticipated future power densities to aid the reader in futureproofing a facility’s power and cooling systems through the mid-2030’s.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Cosmic Reionization On Computers: The Galaxy-Halo Connection between $5 \leq z \leq10$

We explore the connection between the stellar component of galaxies and their host halos during the epoch of reionization (5 ≤ z ≤ 10) using the CROC (Cosmic Reionization on Computers) simulations. We compare simulated galaxies with observations and find that CROC underpredicts the abundance of luminous galaxies when compared to observed UV luminosity functions, and analogously the most massive galaxies when compared to observed stellar mass functions. We can trace the deficit of star formation to high redshifts, where the slope of the star formation rate to stellar mass relation is consistent with observations, but the normalization is systematically low. This results in a star formation rate density and stellar mass density that are systematically offset from observations. However, the less luminous or lower stellar mass objects have luminosities and stellar masses that agree fairly well with observational data. We explore the stellar-to-halo mass ratio (SHMR), a key quantity that is difficult to measure at high redshifts and that models do not consistently predict. In CROC, the SHMR decreases with redshift, a trend opposite to some abundance-matching studies. These discrepancies uncover where future effort should be focused in order to improve the fidelity of modeling cosmic reionization. We also compare the CROC galaxy bias with observational measurements using Lyman-break galaxy samples, finding reasonable consistency.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Loss Factor Assessment in the 8GW PV Fleet Performance Data Initiative

This presentation is divided into the following sections: (1) photovoltaics (PV) current and future deployment; (2) the PV Fleet Performance Data Initiative; (3) fleet degradation trends; (4) high-efficiency module performance; (5) other system loss factors; and (6) conclusions.

deployment↗

DOE OSTI2023

Operation and Process Control Development for a Pilot-Scale Leaching and Solvent Extraction Circuit Recovering Rare Earth Elements From Coal-Based Sources

The US Department of Energy in 2010 has identified several rare earth elements as critical materials to enable clean technologies. As part of ongoing research in REEs (rare earth elements) recovery from coal sources, the University of Kentucky has designed, developed and is demonstrating a ¼ ton/hour pilot-scale processing plant to produce high-grade REEs from coal sources. Due to the need to control critical variables (e.g. pH, tank level, etc.), process control is required. To ensure adequate process control, a study was conducted on leaching and solvent extraction control to evaluate the potential of achieving low-cost REE recovery in addition to developing a process control PLC system. The overall operational design and utilization of Six Sigma methodologies is discussed. Further, the application of the controls design, both procedural and electronic for the control of process variables such as pH is discussed. Variations in output parameters were quantified as a function of time. Data trends show that the mean process variable was maintained within prescribed limits. Future work for the utilization of data analysis and integration for data-based decision-making will be discussed.

coal, rare earth elements, pilot plant, automation↗

DOE OSTI2026

Machine learning-based bias-corrected future projections of ozone concentrations from a chemistry-climate model

Reliable projection of future near-surface ozone is crucial for air quality management and health risk assessment. However, potential biases in spatial distribution, magnitude and trends in ozone concentrations simulated by global chemistry-climate models limit their applicability in regional-scale evaluations. In this study, LightGBM, a machine learning (ML) algorithm is applied to correct biases in CESM2-simulated ozone concentrations over China, the United States and Europe and calibrate future ozone projections under two diverse Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5) scenarios from 2020 to 2060. The ML-based correction significantly improves the spatial distribution and reduces the model bias by 40%–60%. It also reverses the potentially incorrect trend of ozone change under SSP1-2.6 in eastern China. When applying ML-based bias correction to CESM2 future projections, warm season mean ozone concentrations decrease across China, the United States, and Europe by –13.5, –17.9, and –13.7 µg/m³, respectively, between 2020 and 2060 in SSP1-2.6, while they increase by 9.4, 2.0, and 5.2 µg/m³ in SSP5-8.5. Decomposition analysis show that changes in anthropogenic emissions dominate future ozone changes in both scenarios, while strong climate penalty from ozone changes occurs in polluted eastern China and climate benefit is found in western China, the United States and Europe under SSP5-8.5. These findings demonstrate the value of combining ML with chemistry-climate models to produce more accurate air quality projections, thereby informing more effective and region-specific environmental protection strategies.

Chemistry Model↗

DOE OSTI2022

What can surface wind observations tell us about interannual variation in wind energy output?

The past decade of wind power growth was supported by capacity factor improvements and associated cost reductions. But are higher capacity factors a technology success story or, as suggested by recent research, has the influence of technology been overstated by ignoring positive surface wind speed trends? The answer could influence estimates of wind energy's cost and even future deployment rates. We find that US surface wind speed observations imply a 2.6% improvement in capacity factors from 2010 to 2019. Yet newer vintages of wind plants have recorded capacity factors that are ~25% larger than plants built close to 2010. It follows that technological factors and improved site quality, not higher wind speeds, drove most of the improvement in capacity factors. Additionally, we match hundreds of meteorological stations to nearby (< 25 km) wind plants and compare annual estimated generation, based on a function of surface wind speed observations, to annual recorded generation. Researchers rely on this publicly available surface data because measurements co-located with wind plants are generally considered proprietary. Our analysis addresses a research gap: interannual variation in observed surface wind speeds is rarely compared to observed data at wind plant locations and turbine heights. We find that despite its common use for this purpose, generation estimates based on publicly available surface observational data provide a poor proxy for interannual variability in recorded wind generation. These findings suggest that caution is generally needed when researchers use surface wind speed measurements to investigate long-term wind energy trends.

17 WIND ENERGY↗