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At least 253 records · Page 14

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NASA NTRS1983

Predictability of planetary waves - Interhemispheric differences and the effects of stationary forcing

An attempt is made to determine the way in which errors appear in the ultralong waves of numerical weather prediction models, as well as the means by which such errors may be alleviated. Such efforts to improve the numerical forecasting of planetary waves derive their importance from the fact that energetic large scale phenomena are the basis for prospective improvements in extended range forecasting. A simple, linear, quasi-geostrophic and barotropic model is presently used in real data forecast simulations to explore, in an idealized context, several effects that may clarify discrepancies betweeen predictability theory and the performance of current numerical weather prediction models. Attention is given to the degree to which discrepancies may be accounted for by linear theory.

Roads, J. O.↗

NASA NTRS1984

An analysis of the high-latitude thermospheric wind pattern calculated by a thermospheric general circulation model. I - Momentum forcing

A diagnostic processor (DP) was developed for analysis of hydrodynamic and thermodynamic processes predicted by the NCAR thermospheric general circulation model (TGCM). The TGCM contains a history file on the projected wind, temperature and composition fields at each grid point for each hour of universal time. The DP assimilates the history file plus ion drag tensors and drift velocities, specific heats, coefficients of viscosity, and thermal conductivity and calculates the individual forcing terms for the momentum and energy equations for a given altitude. Sample momentum forcings were calculated for high latitudes in the presence of forcing by solar radiation and magnetospheric convection with a 60 kV cross-tail potential, i.e., conditions on Oct. 21, 1981. It was found that ion drag and pressure forces balance out at F region heights where ion drift velocities are small. The magnetic polar cap/auroral zone boundary featured the largest residual force or net acceleration. Diurnal oscillations were detected in the thermospheric convection, and geostrophic balance was dominant in the E layer.

Killeen, T. L.↗

NASA NTRS1982

An alternative to reduction of surface pressure to sea level

The pitfalls of the present method of reducing surface pressure to sea level are reviewed, and an alternative, adjusted pressure, P, is proposed. P is obtained from solution of a Poisson equation over a continental region, using the simplest boundary condition along the perimeter or coastline where P equals the sea level pressure. The use of P would avoid the empiricisms and disadvantages of pressure reduction to sea level, and would produce surface pressure charts which depict the true geostrophic wind at the surface.

Deardorff, J. W.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Theoretical Modeling for Numerical Weather Prediction

The goal is to utilize predictability theory and numerical experimentation to identify and understand some of the dynamical processes which must be modeled more realistically if large-scale numerical weather predictions are to be improved. The emphasis is on the use of relatively simple models to exlore the properties of physically comprehensive general circulation models (GCM's). A global linear quasi-geostrophic model and the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences (GLAS) GCM were used to investigate several mechanisms which are responsible for the decay of large-scale forecast skill in mid-latitude numerical weather predictions. Five-day forecasts for an ensemble of cases were made using First GARP Global Experiment data. It was found that forecast skill depends crucially on the specification of the stationary forcing. A lack of stationary forcing leads to spurious westwad propagation of the ultralong waves. Forecasts made with stationary forcings derived from climatological data are superior to those using forcings inferred from observations immediately preceding the forecast period. Interhemispheric forecast differences were analyzed, and the model errors were compared to errors of a simple persistence-damped-to-climatology scheme and to errors of the GLAS GCM.

Somerville, R. C. J.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Numerical Simulation of North Atlantic Sea Ice Variability, 1951 - 1980

A two-level dynamic-thermodynamic sea ice model is used to simulate the growth, drift and decay of sea ice in the Northern Hemisphere during a 30-year period, 1951 to 1980. The model is run with a daily timestep on a 222 km grid and is forced by interanually varying fields of geostrophic wind and temperature-derived thermodynamic fluxes. The objective is a quantitative description of large-scale sea ice variability in terms of the dynamic and thermodynamic processes responsible for the fluctuations, especially in the North Atlantic where sea ice represents a substantial input of fresh water. The fields of ice velocity and thickness contain strong seasonal as well as interannual variability. The mean drift pattern results in thicknesses of 4 to 5 m offshore of northern Canada and Greenland, while winter thicknesses of approximately 2 m are typical of Alaskan. Eurasian and East Greenland coastal waters. The 30-year mean fields are characterized by ecessive ice in the North Atlantic during winter and by a summer retreat that is more rapid than observed.

Walsh, J. E.↗

NASA NTRS1984

A global low order spectral model designed for climate sensitivity studies

A two level, global, spectral model using pressure as a vertical coordinate is developed. The system of equations describing the model is nonlinear and quasi-geostrophic. A moisture budget is calculated in the lower layer only with moist convective adjustment between the two layers. The mechanical forcing of topography is introduced as a lower boundary vertical velocity. Solar forcing is specified assuming a daily mean zenith angle. On land and sea ice surfaces a steady state thermal energy equation is solved to calculate the surface temperature. Over the oceans the sea surface temperatures are prescribed from the climatological average of January. The model is integrated to simulate the January climate.

Hanna, A. F.↗

NASA NTRS1984

A numerical analysis of transient planetary waves and the vertical structure in a meso-strato-troposphere model, part 1.4A

The structure of unstable planetary waves is computed by a quasi-geostrophic model extending from the surface up to 80 km by means of eigenvalue-eigenfunction techniques in spherical coordinates. Three kinds of unstable modes of distinct phase speeds and vertical structures are identified in the winter climate state: (1) the deep Green mode with its maximum amplitude in the stratosphere; (2) the deep Charney mode with its maximum amplitude in the troposphere: and (3) the shallow Charney mode which is largely confined to the troposphere. Both the Green mode and the deep Charney mode are characterized by very slow phase speeds. They are mainly supported by upward wave energy fluxes, but the local baroclinic energy conversion within the stratosphere also contributes in supporting these deep modes. The mesosphere and the troposphere are dynamically independent in the summer season decoupled by the deep stratospheric easterly. The summer mesosphere supports the easterly unstable waves 1-4. Waves 3 and 4 are identified with the observed mesospheric 2-day wave and 1.7-day wave, respectively.

Zhang, K. S.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Numerical experiments with a general circulation model concerning the distribution of ozone in the stratosphere

The distribution of ozone below 60 km altitude has been simulated in two experiments employing a nine-layer quasi-geostrophic spectral model and linear parameterization of ozone photochemistry, the first of which included thermal and orographic forcing of the planetary scale waves, while the second omitted it. The first experiment exhibited a high latitude winter ozone buildup which was due to a Brewer-Dodson circulation forced by large amplitude (planetary scale) waves in the winter lower stratosphere. Photochemistry was also found to be important down to lower altitudes (20 km) in the summer stratosphere than had previously been supposed.

Kurzeja, R. J.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Temporal variability of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current observed from satellite altimetry

Sea level measurements by the Seasat altimeter were used to study the temporal variability of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current between July and October 1978. Large-scale zonal coherence in the cross-stream sea level difference was observed, indicating a general increase in the surface geostrophic velocity of the current around the Southern Ocean. The result demonstrates the power of satellite altimetry to monitor the variability of large-scale ocean currents.

Fu, L.-L.↗

NASA NTRS1984

The response of a nonlinear, time-dependent, baroclinic model of the atmosphere to tropical thermal forcing

A multi-level, sigma coordinate, primitive equation atmospheric model has been utilized to study both the tropical and extratropical response to an isolated region of steady thermal forcing in the tropics. The nonlinear response during the first 28 days of the simulation is described. The response can be generally characterized by two distinct components. The first component is a quasi-stationary disturbance which extends eastward and poleward away from the source region along a 'great circle' path. The structure of this disturbance is essentially barotropic away from the source region. The second component is a growing baroclinic wave propagating zonally at mid-latitudes. Significantly, this disturbance is apparently the result of baroclinic instability induced by the quasi-stationary wavetrain. The discussion is predominantly heuristic in form and relies heavily on graphical presentation and quasi-geostrophic theory to interpret the response and individual components of the thermodynamic energy and momentum equations.

Grose, W. L.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Modeling the middle atmosphere circulation

Some of the motivations for constructing models of the middle atmosphere circulation are given. These are as follows: (1) to provide a better understanding of middle atmosphere dynamics; (2) to study the coupling of middle atmosphere dynamics with radiation and chemistry; (3) to study the sensitivity of tropospheric climate modeling and/or weather forecasting to changes in the middle atmosphere; (4) to better understand the limitations of more simplified models; (5) to supply a proxy for atmospheric data for diagnostic analysis; and finally, (6) for forecast-analysis of data. Different types of models are discussed in relation to their anticipated use. Various model simplifications, such as using the quasi-geostrophic set of equations and simplified radiative transfer, are discussed as are some of the consequences of these simplifications. Some of the accomplishments of middle atmosphere circulation modeling are presented as are some of the difficulties in existing models. Finally, some of the problems in constructing and verifying middle atmosphere circulation models are discussed.

Geller, M. A.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Large-scale stationary and turbulent flow over topography

The contributions made to the formation of stationary features of flow over topography by linear and nonlinear dynamics were examined with an integrated quasi-geostrophic model with idealized topographic forcing. The simulation was run out to several months and generated time-averaged values which were compared with those obtained with linear theory. Linear predictions were converted to turbulent features through the addition of stationary, nonlinear thermodynamic and transient vorticity fluxes. The turbulence features matched atmospheric data on energy spectra, the direction and magnitude of energy transfers, and the spatial magnitudes involved. Transient flow transferred the majority of energy absorbed by the upscale flow and, by absorbing energy, reduced the energy of stationary flow while retaining resonance signatures. Instability was a pervasive feature of the topographically forced flow except at high wavenumbers. The results confirm that transient eddies are interactive with both asymmetric and zonal flow and cannot be adequately described by linear theory.

Vallis, G. K.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Comparison of horizontal winds from the LIMS satellite instrument with rocket measurements

Statistical results are given for a comparison between horizontal geostrophic winds computed from satellite height data and all available in situ rocket wind soundings during a 7-month period. The satellite data are the daily mapped fields from the Nimbus 7 Limb Infrared Monitor of the Stratosphere (LIMS) instrument, which extend from 100 to 0.1 mbar. Results indicate that in both the tropics and the extratropical Northern Hemisphere, the average zonal and meridional wind speeds agree to within 2-4 m/s throughout the stratosphere. The rms differences are much larger, with values of 5-10 m/s in the lower stratosphere, increasing to 20-40 m/s in the lower mesosphere. Time series show that LIMS and rocketsonde zonal wind speeds show coherent variations with temporal periods of 1-2 weeks and more, and both exhibit irregular variations on time scales of less than one week.

Smith, A. K.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Baroclinic instability of easterly jets with applications to the summer mesosphere

A two-dimensional numerical analysis of baroclinic instability waves in zonally and seasonally averaged wind fields in the summer mesosphere is presented. The analysis is based on the linearized quasi-geostrophic potential vorticity equation of Simmons and Moskins (1973). Solutions are obtained for the wave structure, wave growth rates, and wave periods on the basis of idealized and realistic data, and the results are compared with one-dimensional analyses. It is shown that the wavenumbers of peak growth with periods of 1.4-3 days were consistently lower for the two-dimensional analysis than for previous one-dimensional analyses. The possibility of detecting baroclinic instability in summer winds at 80-100 km by means of nadir-sounding satellite observations is discussed.

Pfister, L.↗

NASA NTRS1985

A simple model for the interaction between vertical eddy heat fluxes and static stability

A numerical model for studying the interaction of vertical eddy heat fluxes and vertical temperature structure in midlatitude regions is described. The temperature profile for the model was derived from calculations of the equilibrium among heating rates in simplified representations of large-scale vertical eddy heat flux, moist convection and radiation. An eddy flux profile is calculated based on the quasi-geostrophic, liner baroclinic instability of a single wave. Model equilibrium states for summer and winter conditions are compared with observations, and the results are discussed in detail.

Gutowski, W. J., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1985

An observational study of a mesoscale area of convection under weak synoptic-scale forcing

This is a case study of a mesoscale area of convection which began at night over western Kansas on September 2, 1982 and lasted until the afternoon of September 3. Evidence from analyses of surface, upper-air radar, and satellite observations suggests that the thunderstorms probably formed in response to the lifting of an elevated layer of conditional instability. The lifting can be attributed qualitatively to quasi-geostrophic ascending motion resulting from a shallow layer of warm advection near 60 kPa. Two possible sources of moisture were midlevel moisture which had been advected around an upstream ridge and a localized area of turbulent transport of water vapor from below. The convective event could not have been forecast with synoptic-scale, mandatory-level analyses alone; it was difficult to explain even with detailed analyses at other levels.

Bluestein, H. B.↗

NASA NTRS1984

A case study on the application of geosynchronous satellite infrared data to estimate soil moisture

The use of GOES IR temperature data to estimate soil moisture content is discussed and demonstrated, modifying the procedure proposed by Wetzel et al. (1984) to provide for incorporation of independent measurements of vegetation biomass, geostrophic wind speed, and surface dewpoint. Data acquisition, processing, and the statistical approach employed are described; data for Kansas and Nebraska during a six-day period in July 1978 are analyzed; and a statistical relationship between observed surface temperature and antecedent precipitation index is established. The results are presented in tables, graphs, and maps, and the regression procedure is found to predict antecedent precipitation with statistically significant precision.

Woodward, R. H.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Temporal variations in predictability

Those characteristics which most significantly contribute to temporal variations in error growth are presently examined in light of a large ensemble of predictability runs conducted in the course of a long equilibrium run in a two-level, nonlinear, quasi-geostrophic model which incorporates orography. In the error spectrum thus developed, all scales grow with a similar doubling time until saturation is first reached at the smallest scales. Due to a lag relationship between equilibrium kinetic energy and available potential energy, it is possible to marginally predict times of small and large error growth.

Roads, J. O.↗