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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 253 records · Page 14

Searching for multimessenger transients and lensed supernovae with the dark energy survey

Advances in data collection technology for optical astronomy, such as the Dark Energy Camera, have facilitated the collection of some of the largest astronomical datasets in terms of sky area, depth, number of objects, number of observations, and frequency of observations. Consequentially, physical systems that have been historically rare become represented in small, but discoverable, numbers. I have developed techniques to identify rare physical systems (counterparts to high-energy neutrinos, counterparts to gravitational waves, and gravitationally lensed supernovae) that can shed new light on the physical processes that govern the Universe. For each system of interest, I collect new or search archival observations with the Dark Energy Camera, develop selection methodologies to find the system of interest in the observations, and quantify the efficiency of the search using simulations. Each of the three analyses has its own scientific implications: I constrain the observing program required to determine the contribution of supernovae to the diffuse high-energy neutrino flux; I set constraints on the physical properties of an optical counterpart to a compact object merger; and I identify candidate lensed supernovae using a novel machine learning technique. Looking forward, the work presented in this dissertation informs future rare object searches and facilitates measurements of the underlying properties of the Universe during the next era of optical survey astronomy.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Impact of Wildfires on Solar Resource Availability in California in a Changing Climate

Wildfires can emit large amounts of atmospheric particulate matters and influence not only air quality but also availability of photovoltaic (PV) generation due to scattering and absorption of solar radiation. Under anthropogenic changing climate, wildfire activity is projected to increase over western North America due to drier and warmer climate, implying increasing impact on solar resource and larger uncertainty in solar generation especially in regions with faster PV penetration. This study focuses on quantifying the impact of wildfires on aerosol optical depth (AOD) and thus solar resource over California using National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB), developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). This assessment includes historical analysis and estimation of solar resource under wildfire scenarios (2020 wildfire and an enhanced wildfire scenario based on 2020 wildfires). Historical analysis for the period of July-October 2019/2020 (low/high fire activity period) shows that the averaged global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and direct normal irradiance (DNI) are reduced by about 30 and 90 W m-2 (5.6 and 15.3%), respectively, during high fire activity period. To create AOD dataset for enhanced fire scenario, 165% increase in burn area (in around 2050) is selected based on comprehensive literature review, which is further applied to the Fire INventory from NCAR (FINN) fire emission. WRF-Chem model with the enhanced FINN emissions is used to simulate and represent a preserving spatial distribution of burned areas and wildfire-emitted aerosols. Our initial analysis suggests that the"enhanced 2020 wildfire" AOD can increase by a factor of 1.3 - 2, which can significantly reduce solar irradiance and increase uncertainty in generation and reliability of power system in extreme wildfire events under a high solar penetration scenario. Overall, this study provides an estimate of the impacts of wildfires on solar resource to make informed decisions on reserve planning, generation scheduling, and reliability investments.

aerosol optical depth↗

Electrorefiner Speciation and Phase Model for Prediction of Operation Lifetime

The Mk IV electrorefiner (ER) at Idaho National Laboratory has recovered uranium metal from used nuclear fuels for 27 years. Thus, large quantities of fission product chlorides more electropositive than uranium have accumulated in the ER salt, increasing the complexity of phase equilibria and salt speciation. Importantly, the melt temperature of the salt increases with ER operation and will ultimately exceed design limits without intervention. Methods to remove fission products from molten chloride salt are known, but their implementation at scale is not yet demonstrated. In this work, historical ER composition and differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) are utilized to develop coupled speciation and chloride salt solution thermochemistry models, which enable accurate present-day analysis of ER salt as well as forecast its future disposition. The developed thermochemical models are applicable to chloride salts generally and have been made available in the Molten Salt Thermal Properties Database – Thermochemical.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Quantifying Investment Risk: Analysis of the Purchase Decision of a Nuclear Power Plant (Presentation)

Cost overruns are an ill-fated part of the deployment history of nuclear power plants (NPPs) in the United States, and yet studies increasingly show the important role nuclear technologies must play in decarbonizing the U.S. economy. Paradoxically, then, a key piece of a coherent decarbonization strategy depends on attracting investor action to a purchase where historical cost overruns have been sizable. To address this challenge, this study aims to develop a financial model that quantifies the risk of cost overruns in the decision-making process for purchasing advanced reactor concepts. Using the concept of value at risk (VaR), the model is built to evaluate financial risk nuclear construction with the aim to identify risk mitigation strategies. The objective is to identify strategies to mitigate cost-risk challenges and assess the potential reduction in investor risk exposure. This paper presents the initial development and preliminary verification of the financial risk analysis model. The development of this model involved a comprehensive approach to estimating financial risk over the operating life of NPP that stems from construction uncertainties. By utilizing net present value (NPV) with discounted cash flows, the model captures the complex interconnections of project costs, construction timelines, revenue, and uncertainties. Verifying the model involved testing historical data from previous reactor construction projects against the construction project of Vogtle 3 and 4. This paper’s results present the comparison of the preconstruction cost overrun prediction with the current cost estimates from a nearly complete Vogtle 3 and 4.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Development of a TRISO assessment case for BISON based on transient experiments in the NSRR

The tristructural isotropic (TRISO) fuel assessment and validation database currently available in BISON is based mainly on steady-state irradiation and high-temperature furnace testing. Transient assessment cases are needed to support ongoing U.S. industry efforts to design and deploy commercial reactors that utilize TRISO fuels. Most available historical transient tests involving TRISO fuels were characterized by power densities, temperatures, and energy depositions that were highly conservative with respect to typical high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR) accident conditions. Nonetheless, assessment of BISON's predictive capabilities, adaptation of material properties toward high-temperature and high-particle-power regimes, and development of a systematic approach to validating BISON for TRISO transient applications now motivate the modeling of historical transient tests. This work describes the development of 1-D thermal models of transient experiments conducted at the Nuclear Safety Research Reactor (NSRR) in Japan, with BISON predictions of energy deposition, UO2 melting onset, and molten volume fractions being compared against experimental measurements. Melting is accounted for by defining an effective specific heat capacity for UO2—one that leverages the material's heat of melting. BISON's predictions of energy deposition and molten volume fraction are in good agreement with the experimental data from the low-energy-deposition tests; however, BISON tends to overpredict melting at higher energy depositions. Though overly conservative compared to the operating conditions expected for near-term TRISO-fueled reactor applications, these simulations effectively exercise BISON TRISO models over a wider range of conditions than those encompassed by the existing assessment database. Potential contributors to the observed discrepancies are noted and additional future developments proposed.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Quantifying Investment Risk: Analysis of the Purchase Decision of a Nuclear Power Plant

Cost overruns are an ill-fated part of the deployment history of nuclear power plants (NPPs) in the United States, and yet studies increasingly show the important role nuclear technologies must play in decarbonizing the U.S. economy. Paradoxically, then, a key piece of a coherent decarbonization strategy depends on attracting investor action to a purchase where historical cost overruns have been sizeable. To address this challenge, this study aims to develop a financial model that quantifies risk of cost overruns in the decision-making process for purchasing advanced reactor concepts. Using the concept of Value at Risk (VaR), the model is built to evaluate financial risk nuclear construction with the aim to identify risk mitigation strategies. The objective is to identify strategies to mitigate cost-risk challenges and to assess the potential reduction in investor risk exposure. The paper presents the initial development and preliminary verification of the financial risk analysis model. The development of this model involved a comprehensive approach to estimating financial risk over the operating life of NPP that stems from construction uncertainties. By utilizing net present value (NPV) with discounted cash flows, the model captures the complex interconnections of project costs, construction timelines, revenue, and uncertainties. Verification of the model involved testing historical data from previous reactor construction projects against the construction project of Vogtle 3 and 4. The results of this paper present the comparison of the preconstruction cost overrun prediction with the current cost estimates from a nearly complete Vogtle 3 and 4.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Future Cost Benefits Analysis for Electrified Vehicles from Advances Due to U.S. Department of Energy Targets

The U.S. Department of Energy’s Vehicle Technologies Office (DOE-VTO) supports research and development (R&D), as well as deployment of efficient and sustainable transportation technologies, that will improve energy efficiency and fuel economy and enable America to use less petroleum. To accelerate the creation and adoption of new technologies, DOE-VTO has developed specific targets for a wide range of powertrain technologies (e.g., engine, battery, electric machine, lightweighting, etc.). This paper quantifies the impact of VTO R&D on vehicle energy consumption and cost compared to expected historical improvements across vehicle classes, powertrains, component technologies and timeframes. We have implemented a large scale simulation process to develop and simulate tens of thousands of vehicles on U.S. standard driving cycles using Autonomie, a vehicle simulation tool developed by Argonne National Laboratory. Results demonstrate significant additional reductions in both cost and energy consumption due to the existence of VTO R&D targets compared to predicted historical trends. It is observed that, over time, the fuel consumption of different electrified vehicles is expected to decrease by 40–50% and a reduction of 45–55% for vehicle manufacturing costs owing to significant improvements through various VTO R&D targets.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Ceramic High Efficiency Particulate Air (HEPA) Filter Research and Development at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory

Ceramic high efficiency particulate air (HEPA) filter development program began at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) over 20 years ago. Historical incidents motivated current safety systems at nuclear facilities. A ceramic filter that can survive a fire can provide robust, passive safety protection. Research has been conducted to improve the safety of nuclear facilities and to reduce operational and lifecycle costs, through ceramic filter technology that can survive fire conditions. Here, the research focused on applications in both new facilities as well as meeting operational requirements necessary to retrofit filters into existing DOE facilities. The research has developed multiple filter technologies spanning traditional HEPA filter materials to advanced manufacturing technologies (e.g., electrospinning, additive manufacturing, etc.). This communication will present highlights of selected development efforts for ceramic HEPA filter research, current state-of-the-art for ceramic filters, and future needs including technical, regulatory, and commercial efforts.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Learning Local Volt/VAR Controllers Toward Efficient Network Operation with Stability Guarantees: Preprint

This paper considers the problem of voltage regulation in distribution network. The primary motivation is to keep voltages within pre-assigned operating limits by commanding the reactive power output of distributed energy resources (DERs) deployed in the grid. We develop a framework for developing local Volt/Var control that comprises of two main steps. In the first, exploiting historical data and for each DER, we learn a function representing desirable equilibrium points for the power network. These points approximate solutions of an Optimal Power Flow problem. In the second, we propose a control scheme for steering the network towards these favorable configurations. Theoretical conditions are derived to formally guarantee the stability of the developed control scheme and numerical simulations illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

data-driven control↗

Dashboard for Marine Energy Site Assessment and Monitoring

The marine energy (ME) industry presently relies upon fragmented site assessment solutions that require high resource expenditure for deployment at each site and do not leverage the wealth of readily available tools and information. A wave energy resource assessment dashboard, currently in development, will substantially improve siting, permitting, operations, and maintenance of ME projects by providing an integrated solution that is a one-stop-shop for a developer’s needs. The Site Energy Assessment and MOnitoring Dashboard (SEAMOD) will be of commercial interest to anyone seeking to deploy an ME project and is easily expandable to include tidal and wind energy site assessments. The integrated dashboard is being developed using state-of-the-art database and cloud computing methods and data-assimilative modeling tools that can be coupled with low-cost, rapidly deployable wave buoys and environmental sensing hardware. The combined software and hardware dashboard will reduce wave energy site characterization and wave climate monitoring costs by more than 60 percent and provide assessments that meet international industry standards. To realize a thriving global ME industry, the physical environment at a potential deployment site must be understood, not only for resource characterization, but also for optimization of device and power conversion performance. SEAMOD directly addresses these needs with a commercially marketable product. SEAMOD is a low-cost solution that provides comprehensive ME resource assessments, baseline environmental monitoring, and offshore characterizations required for successful ME development. The key technical objectives for Phase I were a series of software development goals, which when implemented with monitoring solutions, produced an initial proof-of-concept low-cost wave energy resources dashboard. In Phase II, the development of the prototype SEAMOD continued. The basic framework employed was the development of a revised dashboard and monitoring tool customized for ME applications by focusing on IEC site assessment and method requirements. Development was focused on the integration of full hindcast metocean products to provide hindcast resource characterization and environmental information. The final integrated dashboard provides a low-cost solution that delivers comprehensive, scalable, industry-standard energy resource assessments and offshore characterizations required for successful ME development. The integrated dashboard offers visibility of the most recent site modeling, measurements, and historical data. The application and integration of consensus-based standards for wave energy resource assessment, as determined by the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC), are crucial for the impact and value of SEAMOD. SEAMOD includes monthly, seasonal, and yearly statistics, as well as the total 30-year record, offering temporal resolution of the IEC parameters to aid potential developers in determining the available wave energy resources in their area of interest.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Where Is the Provenance? Ethical Replicability and Reproducibility in GIScience and Its Critical Applications

As replicability and reproducibility (R&R) crises develop within emerging convergent inquiry, ethical use of provenance information is central to the establishment and preservation of trust in critical applications of GIScience and geospatial technologies. Today large volumes of geospatial data are generated at high velocity from satellite sensors and unmanned aircraft systems, citizen sensors, geolocation-based data services, global navigation satellite systems, and so on. The extensive use of these data for applications such as disaster and humanitarian response raises the issue of R&R from competing perspectives of location privacy and geospatial data quality. Although geospatial data can be integrated and linked with contextual information to identify individuals’ movements, steps taken to ensure privacy can complicate the multiuser development of high-quality geospatial workflows. Provenance information as digital records of historical (retrospective) and potential future (prospective) geospatial processes is often overlooked, misunderstood, or inadequately addressed. We explore the relationship between provenance information, location privacy, and geospatial data quality in the context of R&R with a focus on disaster analytics. Here, we argue that in the era of big data and deep learning, GIScientists and associated institutions bear greater responsibility both for geospatial workflow quality and for location privacy. Given vastly heterogenous computational landscapes, we provide practical recommendations for ethically driven provenance and R&R research and development within the GIScience community and beyond.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

Best Practices Handbook for the Collection and Use of Solar Resource Data for Solar Energy Applications: Third Edition

As the world looks for low-carbon sources of energy, solar power stands out as the single most abundant energy resource on Earth. Harnessing this energy is the challenge for this century. Photovoltaics, solar heating and cooling, and concentrating solar power (CSP) are primary forms of energy applications using sunlight. These solar energy systems use different technologies, collect different fractions of the solar resource, and have different siting requirements and production capabilities. Reliable information about the solar resource is required for every solar energy application. This holds true for small installations on a rooftop as well as for large solar power plants; however, solar resource information is of particular interest for large installations because they require substantial investment, sometimes exceeding 1 billion dollars in construction costs. Before such a project is undertaken, the best possible information about the quality and reliability of the fuel source must be made available. That is, project developers need reliable data about the solar resource available at specific locations, including historic trends with seasonal, daily, hourly, and (preferably) subhourly variability to predict the daily and annual performance of a proposed power plant. Without these data, an accurate financial analysis is not possible. Additionally, with the deployment of large amounts of distributed photovoltaics, there is an urgent need to integrate this source of generation to ensure the reliability and stability of the grid. Forecasting generation from the various sources will allow for larger penetrations of these generation sources because utilities and system operators can then ensure stable grid operations. Developed by the foremost experts in the field who have come together under the umbrella of the International Energy Agency’s Solar Heating and Cooling Task 46, this handbook summarizes state-of-the-art information about all these topics.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Science Area 1: Standard Award: Model-Data Fusion to Examine Multiscale Dynamical Controls on Snow Cover and Critical Zone Moisture Inputs (Final Report)

In many mountain watersheds of the world, seasonal snowpacks play an important role as natural reservoirs of water. Seasonal snowpacks accumulate water during cold, wet winter months that subsequently melts. Downstream communities depend on water from melting seasonal snowpacks to support agricultural, industrial, and municipal water needs. Rapidly melting snowpacks can also present a flooding hazard, particularly if snowpacks melt at rates faster than anticipated and where adequate reservoir capacity is unavailable to buffer river flows associated with melt. The spatial and temporal dynamics of snow accumulation and melt also play an important role in supporting upland ecosystems in mountain landscapes. Snowmelt provides soil moisture that enable terrestrial ecosystem productivity and exert control on soil microorganisms that play important roles in global carbon cycles. Climate warming is gradually decreasing the amount of precipitation in mountain watersheds arriving as snow, presenting potentially profound disruptions to mountain ecosystems, as well as downstream delivery of water. The overarching goal of this project was to understand how interactions between the near-surface atmosphere and surface topography control the input, accumulation, retention, and release of water from mountain snowpacks. Over a 5-year period, this project pursued an approach combining high-resolution regional climate modeling, satellite and airborne remote sensing data, and ground-based observations to develop and analyze benchmark datasets to address overarching science questions and hypotheses. Key products include a continuous, long-term, high spatiotemporal resolution (1 km/1 hr) dataset characterizing key climate variables in the Upper Colorado River Basin. The dataset included historical estimates of precipitation, temperature, humidity, solar and longwave radiation, and wind speeds. Additionally, the project developed a 20+ year long, 30 m spatial, daily temporal multi-sensor dataset characterizing snow presence/absence in the East/Taylor River watersheds in the Central Rocky Mountains of Colorado. The project supported training of 1 postdoctoral scholar, 1 Ph.D. student, and 1 M.S. student.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Development and demonstration of a BISON–Griffin modeling framework for the design of targeted TRISO transient experiments in the Transient Reactor Test Facility

Uranium oxycarbide (UCO)-bearing tri-structural isotropic (TRISO) particle fuels are expected to be used in numerous U.S. commercial reactor applications within the next decade. Here, in this work, we reviewed historical particle fuel transient experiments to identify gaps in TRISO fuel performance transient testing. A BISON–Griffin modeling framework was then developed to conduct preliminary TRISO transient analyses and begin to address these gaps. The framework was demonstrated using limiting-case transient conditions from a prototypic high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR). It was then applied to develop a matrix of experiments that could be performed in the Transient Reactor Test Facility (TREAT) to (1) evaluate UCO-fueled particle performance at moderate and high heat rates, (2) assess whether historical testing involving UO 2 -fueled particles is applicable to modern UCO-fueled particles, (3) deconvolute the impacts of temperature and heat rate on particle transient response, and (4) collect the data needed for fuel performance model validation and/or further development.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Perspectives on Tailoring Neutron Energy Spectra in Material Test Reactors

Material test reactors (MTRs) are used to irradiate nuclear fuels and materials to develop data for how they endure neutron bombardment in or near reactor cores. Most historic MTRs, and all that remain operational in the US today, are water-cooled types and produce a thermalized neutron flux. New irradiation facilities are needed which can produce neutron energy spectra relevant to fast and fusion reactor environments. Construction of these facilities will take several years of steadfast funding to complete, which poses a formidable schedule challenge for current fast and fusion reactor developers. Irradiation designs which modify the neutron energy spectra delivered to test specimens in thermal spectrum MTRs, an approach referred to as “spectral tailoring”, can be used to approximate several relevant phenomena in the materials needed to enable fast and fusion reactor technologies. This approach is imperfect, but still valuable in the present situation. Here, the two highest flux MTRs operational in the United States, the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) and High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR), have rich histories, ongoing developments, and new potentials for spectral tailoring that will be reviewed and discussed in this paper.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Eligibility Assessment of TA-52-1 and TA-52-11: The Ultra-High Temperature Reactor Experiment (UHTREX) Complex

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), National Nuclear Security Administration, Los Alamos Field Office (NA-LA) requests the State Historic Preservation Officer (SHPO) to concur with the eligibility determinations contained in this report for Buildings 1 and 11 in Technical Area 52 (TA-52) at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL or the Laboratory). Triad National Security LLC cultural resources staff have completed the evaluation of two buildings, called the UHTREX Complex, for inclusion in the National Register of Historic Places (Register). This complex includes the UHTREX Reactor Building (TA-52-1), and an associated Mechanical Assembly Building (TA-52-11). As part of LANL’s Footprint Reduction Program, both facilities of the UHTREX Complex are scheduled for characterization and demolition. In addition to evaluating their eligibility in the Register, the properties at TA-52 were assessed for potential adaptive reuse, long-term preservation, and public interpretation. Based on the findings in this assessment report, both TA-52-1 and TA-52-11 have been determined to not be eligible for inclusion in the Register. The history of the UHTREX Complex lacks association with exceptionally significant Cold War events of scientific developments. Both TA-52-1 and TA-52-11 lack the necessary internal historic integrity suitable for long-term preservation or public interpretation. And both facilities contain legacy radioactive contamination, which prohibits their reuse. In addition to its loss of integrity and context, TA-52- 11 has been determined ineligible due to its status as a support building of secondary or minor importance. In compliance with Section 106 and Section 110 of the National Historic Preservation Act of 1966, as amended, and with the Programmatic Agreement among the U.S. Department of Energy, National Nuclear Security Administration, Los Alamos Field Office, the New Mexico State Historic Preservation Office, and the Advisory Council on Historic Preservation Concerning Management of the Historic Properties at Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico, the SHPO is requested to concur with the eligibility determinations contained in this report for the UHTREX Complex in TA-52.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Assessing the impact of climate change on rainfall-triggered landslides: a case study in California

Landslides are widespread natural hazards which take a heavy toll on lives, property, and infrastructure each year. In January 2023 and 2024, widespread landslides occurred in California as a result of extreme winter precipitation. Estimating the regional evolution of landslide hazard in a changing climate is essential for adaptation planning and risk mitigation efforts. The complex effects of climate change on landslide hazard, however, are poorly understood. Here, we use climate and landslide observations to develop a novel data-driven approach for landslide susceptibility assessment under historical and future climate conditions. We apply this framework to investigate the evolution of landslide susceptibility in California and its impacts on the roadway system based on downscaled climate projections under moderate and high greenhouse gas emission scenarios. On average, the results indicate an increase in landslide susceptibility through 2100 in regions where historical susceptibility is moderate to very high. Although the spatio-temporal variations in landslide susceptibility are sensitive to climate model uncertainties in predicting extreme rainfall, the direst impacts are largely circumvented in lower emission scenarios.

Climate Change↗

eProject Builder (ePB) v3.1

eProject Builder (ePB) is a secure, web-based system that enables agencies and ESCOs to securely: (1) preserve, track, and access energy project information for the life of the contract (2) quickly generate data and reports for their portfolio of projects (3) develop project scenarios using standardized amortization calculations (4) benchmark new projects against historical project data

Larsen, Peter↗