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NASA NTRS2010

NextGen Future Safety Assessment Game

The successful implementation of the next generation infrastructure systems requires solid understanding of their technical, social, political and economic aspects along with their interactions. The lack of historical data that relate to the long-term planning of complex systems introduces unique challenges for decision makers and involved stakeholders which in turn result in unsustainable systems. Also, the need to understand the infrastructure at the societal level and capture the interaction between multiple stakeholders becomes important. This paper proposes a methodology in order to develop a holistic approach aiming to provide an alternative subject-matter expert (SME) elicitation and data collection method for future sociotechnical systems. The methodology is adapted to Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) decision making environment in order to demonstrate the benefits of this holistic approach.

Ancel, Ersin↗

NASA NTRS2011

NextGen Future Safety Assessment Game

Ancel, Ersin↗

DOE OSTI2024

Assessing the Expansion of Ground-Motion Sensing Capability in Smart Cities via Internet Fiber-Optic Infrastructure

Monitoring ground motion in smart cities can improve the public safety by providing critical insights on natural and anthropogenic hazards, for example, earthquakes, landslides, explosions, infrastructure failures, and so forth. Although seismic activity is typically measured using dedicated point sensors (e.g., geophones and accelerometers), techniques such as distributed acoustic sensing have demonstrated the utility of using fiber-optic cable to detect seismic activity over comparable distances. In this article, we present the results of a study that quantifies the expansion in an area monitored for low-amplitude ground-motion events by augmenting existing point sensors with the internet fiber-optic cable infrastructure. Here we begin by describing our methodology, which utilizes geospatial data on point sensors and internet optical fiber deployed in metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) in the United States. We extend these data to identify the area that can be monitored by (1) considering the observed seismic noise data in target locations, (2) applying the model from Wilson et al. (2021) to understand the potential coverage area gains using optical fiber sensing, and (3) optimizing the selection of fiber segments to maximize coverage and minimize deployment costs. We implement our methodology in ArcGIS to assess the additional area that can be monitored for low-amplitude ground-motion events (i.e., magnitude >0.5) by utilizing internet fiber-optic cables in the 100 most populous MSAs in the United States. We find that the addition of internet fiber-based sensors in MSAs would increase the area monitored on average by over an order of magnitude from 1% to 12%, if the subset of fiber cable segments that maximize coverage and minimize deployment costs is chosen even if only 20% of all fibers are used.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Development of New Reactor Core Configuration for Power Uprate - Fuel Reload & Heat Processing Analyses, Core Design, System Safety Assessments, and Fuel Performance Analyses

With the passage of the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act in 2021 and the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) in 2022, the United States stands at a critical juncture for the future of nuclear power. These landmark policies provide significant support for clean energy initiatives, positioning nuclear power as a key component of the nation’s strategy to reduce carbon emissions and achieve energy security. This growing emphasis on nuclear energy is driven by the need for reliable, low-carbon power sources as the country transitions away from fossil fuels. Federal policy, along with increasing state-level support, is encouraging investment in nuclear technology advancements to meet these demands. Building new nuclear power plants (NPPs), however, presents significant challenges due to high costs and long construction timelines. As a result, increasing the power output of existing NPPs through power uprates has emerged as a more feasible and cost-effective strategy. One key area of advancement is the development of accident-tolerant fuel (ATF), such as chromium-coated zirconium alloy cladding, which offers enhanced material performance, enabling power uprates in light water reactors (LWRs). Given the growing demand for nuclear energy fueled by federal policies and state initiatives, it is essential to evaluate the feasibility and benefits of significant power uprates in existing pressurized water reactors (PWRs) using advanced fuel technologies. The introduction of ATF concepts opens new opportunities for safely and economically achieving these power increases. Assessing whether these innovations can support substantial power uprates while maintaining operational safety is crucial to maximizing the potential of the nation’s existing nuclear infrastructure. This project aims to explore how power uprates can be achieved by boosting reactor thermal power output and optimizing reactor core design, while ensuring the safety and economic viability of NPPs. Specifically, it will focus on demonstrating the technical and economic feasibility of power uprates in a PWR using low 5-10% enrichment uranium (LEU+) high burnup (HBU) fuel combined with ATF concepts. In fiscal year 2024 (FY24), the research and development focus on building foundational models and conducting multi-physics performance and safety analyses to support the power uprate. The findings of the study would be shared through LWRS Seasonal Meetings, conferences and workshops with utility companies and researchers. These also serve as a basis for further study of fuel reloading optimization with ATF claddings.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Bat Smart Curtailment: Efficacy and Operational Testing

Curtailment, or blanket curtailment, is a leading method to mitigate the impacts to bats from operating wind turbines. Although this strategy results in considerable decreases in bat fatalities, it also results in decreased energy production. In 2019, Natural Power was awarded funding by the Department of Energy to assess the readiness of the informed smart curtailment technology, EchoSense (formerly referred to as Detection and Active Response Curtailment, [DARC]). The research undertaken by this project expands the understanding of alternative methods, known as smart curtailment, to maintain a reduction in bat fatalities while simultaneously recovering lost energy associated with blanket curtailment. The overall project was composed of three major tasks; Task 1 was focused on cybersecurity compliance of the EchoSense system in accordance with the North American Electric Reliability Corporation Critical Infrastructure Protection (“NERC CIP”) standards, Task 2 assessed the mechanical loads exerted on turbines when operating under a smart curtailment regime, and Task 3 assessed the efficacy of the EchoSense system at an operational wind farm. Regarding Task 1, an external review by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory determined that the EchoSense system did not create any new cybersecurity weaknesses and was compliant with the NERC CIP standards. As a result of this process, Natural Power developed some best practices (10.1) for wind- wildlife technology developers. In conjunction with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, the results (10.2) of the loads testing demonstrated that the periodic curtailment and release of turbines by the EchoSense system did not have any detrimental impact on the mechanical components of a wind turbine (Task 2). During the late summer to fall of 2020 and 2021, Natural Power demonstrated that the use of the EchoSense smart curtailment system resulted in no significant difference in bat fatalities compared to blanket curtailment with cut-in speeds at 6.9 m/s (2020) and 5.0 m/s (2021) while resulting in a significant difference in decreased lost energy (Task 3). This translates to an average of 41% (2020) and 56% (2021) reduction in per turbine energy loss compared to blanket curtailment. The reduction in energy loss that would have been achieved by EchoSense curtailment compared to blanket curtailment, if applied across all 69 turbines, is roughly equivalent to having an additional turbine on site. These results are notable for finding a balance between the environmental impact of wind energy and the economic feasibility in energy production associated with mitigating that impact. https://www.naturalpower.com/us/expertise/service/engineering-operations/echosense

17 WIND ENERGY↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Space Transformation -- Localizing the Remote and Connecting the Isolated

In motivating the Space Transformation theme for this year’s 4S symposium, the organizers provided the following context, “Transformation of economies are driven by a change in values and accelerated by new technologies.” These words rang particularly true when I read them at the beginning of the holiday season. Like so many others, I was in the early phases of my Christmas shopping procrastination campaign, and I’d just been reflecting on how Amazon Prime was the transformational tool I’d been waiting for. Basic limiting principles of time and space, supply and demand, were all but erased by the Amazon Prime phenomenon. Coupled with emerging 3D printing and other adaptive manufacturing technologies, a transformation from deliberate planning to “think it … have it” had occurred, empowering me to procrastinate longer than I’d ever dreamed possible. The organizers went on to ponder, “Will space transformation also affect society?”, just as our team at the Air Force Research Lab’s (AFRL) Center for Rapid Innovation (CRI) were working alongside partners within our larger Integrated Capabilities Directorate, NASA’s Flight Opportunities and Small Spacecraft Technology programs, and DARPA’s Luna-10 program to develop technologies and execute demonstration missions that leverage the space domain to genuinely connect even the most remote and austere domains on the timeline of need. Picking apart the miracle that is Amazon prime, where does the model fail, and why? More relevantly to the theme of this year’s symposium, how can the space domain be used to overcome its limitations and minimize its weaknesses? Perhaps it is best assessed in the context of Use Cases. What are the Amazon delivery cost, schedule, and cargo limiters to the Amundsen-Scott South Pole Research Station, or the Lunar South Pole Research Station? This paper will explore enabling infrastructure that allows Amazon prime to thrive and assess the transformational enabling technologies that would be necessary to extend that miracle to the truly remote or the truly austere. Localizing the Remote • First, it will evaluate the ability of the on-going AFRL Rocket Cargo and Space Initiatives Ringside Seats systems, coupled with Astrobotic’s Xodiak and Xogdor capabilities, developed to support the NASA Flight Opportunities Program (FOP), to supply orbital/suborbital delivery to both improved and austere sites on the Earth and Moon. • Then, it will add the surface terminal distribution leg, with an examination of Lunar Outpost’s Mobile Autonomous Prospecting Platform (MAPP), equipped with Mobile Autonomous Robotic Swarm (MARS) software, and Intuitive Machine’s Hopper, developed with support of AFRL and NASA’s Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) program. Connecting the Isolated From there, it will focus on the destination, asking what implied destination services are required to support highly assured autonomous delivery. • Specifically, it will highlight Astrobotic’s Skymage mesh-networked publish and subscribe communication and navigation service, as well as AFRL’s on-going developments of radioisotope and reactor nuclear-sourced thermoelectric power generation and distribution systems under development under the Joint Emergent Technology Supplying On-orbit Nuclear Power (JETSON) program by Lockheed Martin, Westinghouse, Intuitive Machines, and Zeno Power, to provide the power service to locations well off the grid. • Finally, the paper will connect to the “human machine”. What connects the remote or in-situ human consumer to the remote domain? What connects the diverse international government and commercial services to each other? The former will focus on AFRL’s OraCloud feeding their Space Defense Control and Characterization System (SDCCS) and Lunar Station’s MoonHacker systems, while the latter will focus on the BlueHalo/Tensor LunX Technology Platform for the Cislunar Commodity Marketplace. In 1984, Krafft Ehricke famously remarked that, “If God wanted man to become a spacefaring species, He would have given man a Moon.” This paper is not about the Moon, but is about humans as a spacefaring species, shedding the pesky land/air limitations of the Amazon Prime model … so that we can all live a procrastinator’s “think it … have it” existence.

Charles Finley↗

DOE OSTI2022

Electricity Costs and Carbon Implications for CO 2 -to-Fuels in Selected Locations in 2030

With the growing interest in converting carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) to fuels and products to reduce overall greenhouse gas emissions and extend carbon from biogenic and other sources, the development of carbon capture and utilization (CO2U) technologies and industry is crucial. The Markets, Resources, and Environmental and Energy Justice of CO 2 -to-Fuels Technologies (short title: MarkeRs & EEJ) project supports this goal by assessing the resource and market potential and infrastructure requirements for mid-term (-2030) and long-term (-2050) deployment of CO2U technologies. The overall project analyzes CO2U economic and resource requirements as well as sustainability and environmental and energy justice (EEJ) metrics. This report focuses on short-term (-2030) aspects of the project. It identifies three CO2U locations in the Midwestern United States and quantifies the costs for potential electricity resources and marginal emissions for each site in the near term (e.g., 2030). We focus on four electricity purchase options, including retail rate, physical power purchase agreement (PPA), financial PPA, and real-time pricing (RTP), for each of the three sites and consider potential policies such as production tax credits (PTCs). We also assess time-dependent hourly marginal electricity costs and the marginal emission rates using modeled scenarios from Cambium (Gagnon et al. 2021).The results of the analysis are expected to inform other projects within the U.S. Department of Energy's CO 2 -to-Fuels Consortium, especially the Economics and Sustainability of CO 2 Utilization Technologies with Techno-Economic Analysis and Life Cycle Analysis (TEA/LCA) project, led by Michael Wang of Argonne National Laboratory and Ling Tao of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The project results are also expected to inform the investment and technology communities and policymakers at the U.S. Department of Energy, state, and regional levels and guide investment by government and industry in research and development portfolios.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Hydrogen Plus Other Alternative Fuels Risk Assessment Models (HyRAM+) (Technical Reference Manual V.4)

The HyRAM+ software toolkit provides a basis for conducting quantitative risk assessment and consequence modeling for hydrogen, methane, and propane infrastructure and transportation systems. HyRAM+ is designed to facilitate the use of state-of-the-art science and engineering models to conduct robust, repeatable assessments of safety, hazards, and risk. HyRAM+ includes generic probabilities for equipment failures, probabilistic models for the impact of heat flux on humans and structures, and experimentally validated first-order models of release and flame physics. HyRAM+ integrates deterministic and probabilistic models for quantifying accident scenarios, predicting physical effects, and characterizing hazards (thermal effects from jet fires, overpressure effects from delayed ignition), and assessing impact on people and structures. HyRAM+ is developed at Sandia National Laboratories to support the development and revision of national and international codes and standards. HyRAM+ is a research software in active development and thus the models and data may change. This report will be updated at appropriate developmental intervals. This document provides a description of the methodology and models contained in HyRAM+ version 4.0. The most significant change for HyRAM+ version 4.0 from HyRAM version 3.1 is the incorporation of other alternative fuels, namely methane (as a proxy for natural gas) and propane into the toolkit. This change necessitated significant changes to the installable graphical user interface as well as changes to the back-end Python models. A second major change is the inclusion of physics models for the overpressure associated with the delayed ignition of an unconfined jet/plume of flammable gas.

02 PETROLEUM↗

DOE OSTI2020

Planning for the storm: Considering renewable energy for critical infrastructure resilience

This study uses the renewable energy optimization model to assess three critical facilities in North Carolina. Techno-economic results were then compared to analyses completed for critical facilities in California and New York to assess energy system cost effectiveness. Though solar photovoltaic (PV) arrays are cost-effective across each of the three North Carolina facilities, adopting battery storage to enable PV to operate with existing diesel generators in a hybrid energy system reduces the economic value of the system. This is in contrast to more economically viable systems in California and New York. All of these systems also offer unquantified resilience benefits by extending operation from hours to weeks across the facilities. If decision makers were able to value the resilience benefits offered by each system or utility rate structures were changed to incentivize battery storage during normal operations, it would impact these assessments. Even so, this analysis provides decision makers a key set of cost benchmarks when considering how they might improve resilience at their critical operations.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Crowd-based spatial risk assessment of urban flooding: Results from a municipal flood hotline in Detroit, MI

Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events, raising the risk of urban flood disasters. This study uses a crowd-sourced municipal call database to characterize the spatial distribution of flood risk in Detroit, MI. Call data including dates and addresses were obtained from the City of Detroit Department of Public Works for 2021. Calls were mapped and aggregated to census tract counts and merged with neighborhood-level data. Associations of predictors with flood calls were tested using spatial regression models. Flooding calls were located throughout the city but were concentrated in specific areas. Multivariate models of census tract level call counts indicated that increased poverty and Black, immigrant, and older residents were positively associated with flood calls, while increased elevation was associated with protective effects. Longer distances from waste water interceptors were associated with higher risk for calls. Crowd-sourced flood hotline call data can be used for effective spatial flood risk assessment. Though flooding occurs throughout the city of Detroit, infrastructural, neighborhood, and household factors influence flooding extent. Limitations included the self-reported nature of calls. Future modeling efforts might include input from local stakeholders to improve spatial risk assessment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2017

Compounding Impacts of Human-Induced Water Stress and Climate Change on Water Availability

The terrestrial phase of the water cycle can be seriously impacted by water management and human water use behavior (e.g., reservoir operation, and irrigation withdrawals). Here we outline a method for assessing water availability in a changing climate, while explicitly considering anthropogenic water demand scenarios and water supply infrastructure designed to cope with climatic extremes. The framework brings a top-down and bottom-up approach to provide localized water assessment based on local water supply infrastructure and projected water demands. When our framework is applied to southeastern Australia we find that, for some combinations of climatic change and water demand, the region could experience water stress similar or worse than the epic Millennium Drought. We show considering only the influence of future climate on water supply, and neglecting future changes in water demand and water storage augmentation might lead to opposing perspectives on future water availability. While human water use can significantly exacerbate climate change impacts on water availability, if managed well, it allows societies to react and adapt to a changing climate. The methodology we present offers a unique avenue for linking climatic and hydrologic processes to water resource supply and demand management and other human interactions.

Climate-change policyHydrology↗

NASA NTRS2005

In-Space Propulsion: Connectivity to In-Space Fabrication and Repair

The connectivity between new in-space propulsion technologies and the ultimate development of an in-space fabrication and repair infrastructure are described in this Technical Memorandum. A number of advanced in-space propulsion technologies are being developed by NASA, many of which are directly relevant to the establishment of such an in-space infrastructure. These include aerocapture, advanced solar-electric propulsion, solar-thermal propulsion, advanced chemical propulsion, tethers, and solar photon sails. Other, further-term technologies have also been studied to assess their utility to the development of such an infrastructure.

Johnson, L.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Biorefinery siting and sizing to achieve the US Billion‐Ton Bioeconomy vision: A case study using a gasification–Fischer–Tropsch process

Achieving a secure, abundant, and affordable energy future requires a robust and adaptable energy strategy, with bioenergy playing a pivotal role. Biomass-based energy presents a promising pathway to use domestic resources while fostering economic opportunities in rural areas. Despite the potential to source more than 1 billion dry short tons of biomass annually in the US, significant infrastructure and economic barriers hinder full utilization for energy production. This study used the Biofuel Infrastructure, Logistics, and Transportation (BILT) model to assess biorefinery siting and scale and determine the number and size of facilities required to maximize use of the US biomass potential. A spatially agnostic approach first assessed the effects of facility capacity and transportation constraints on biomass use. Then, a spatially explicit analysis integrated county-level biomass availability from the US Department of Energy's 2023 Billion-Ton Report and technoeconomic assessments to evaluate different biorefinery deployment scenarios. The results indicate that an optimized mix of facility sizes is essential to leverage biomass resources fully across varying regional production densities to maximize use of the US biomass potential. Larger biorefineries or co-located smaller facilities significantly enhance biomass use while reducing costs through economies of scale. These findings underscore the importance of strategically balancing facility capacity and spatial distribution to optimize the bioenergy supply chain. In conclusion, this study provides critical insights for advancing the US bioenergy economy by aligning biorefinery deployment with biomass resource availability and economic viability.

BILT Model↗

DOE OSTI2025

Tropical Cyclone Super Resolution using conditional diffusion denoising probabilistic model from mesoscale simulation to LES

Accurate modeling of tropical cyclone wind fields is essential for the design, risk assessment, and operational planning of offshore energy infrastructure. While mesoscale simulations are widely used thanks to their computational efficiency, they lack the necessary resolution to capture key features such as wind shear and veer profiles as well as the distribution turbulent kinetic energy (TKE). High-fidelity large-eddy simulation (LES) models on the other hand, can resolve turbulent structures and provide a more accurate representation of the complex wind field, albeit at a higher computational cost. To address this modeling gap, we introduce a two-part generative framework to enhance the resolution and physics-capturing ability of mesoscale simulations. First, a reduced-order model based on Karhunen–Loève (KL) decomposition is used to extract dominant spatial modes from one-dimensional mean wind profiles. A multilayer perceptron (MLP) is trained to map mesoscale mode weights to their LES counterparts, enabling accurate reconstruction of vertical velocity profiles. Second, a conditional Diffusion Denoising Probabilistic Model (DDPM) is developed to super-resolve coarse and low-fidelity mesoscale velocity fields, recovering fine-scale turbulence structures and stress distributions. The framework is evaluated across different tropical cyclone intensity categories defined by the Saffir–Simpson scale and demonstrates strong performance in both interpolation and extrapolation tasks. The generated fields accurately reproduce spatial coherence, stress distributions, and spectral energy characteristics observed in LES data. By bridging the fidelity gap between mesoscale and LES outputs, this approach offers a scalable, data-driven solution for enhancing the representation of tropical cyclone wind fields, enabling more robust offshore energy infrastructure systems design in tropical-cyclone-prone areas.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Empirically-calibrated H100 node power models for accurate AI training energy estimation

Accurately quantifying the energy use of artificial intelligence (AI) training is critical for infrastructure planning, carbon accounting, and sustainable data center operation, but few studies have directly measured the power consumption of production workloads on contemporary hardware. By combining empirical measurements from Brookhaven National Laboratory during AI training on 8-graphics-processing-unit H100 systems with open-source benchmarking data, we develop statistical models relating computational intensity to node-level power consumption. We measure the gap between manufacturer-rated thermal design power (TDP) and actual power demand during AI training. Our analysis reveals that even computationally intensive workloads operate at only 76% of the 10.2 kW TDP rating. Our architecture-specific model, calibrated to floating-point operations, predicts energy consumption with 11.4% mean absolute percentage error, significantly outperforming TDP-based approaches (27%–37% error). We identified distinct power signatures between transformer and convolutional neural network architectures, with transformers showing characteristic fluctuations that may impact grid stability. These results provide a measurement-grounded basis for improving AI training energy estimates, enabling more reliable infrastructure sizing, cost projections, and environmental impact assessments.

Newkirk, Alex C↗

DOE OSTI2022

Feedstock Carbon Intensity Calculator (FD-CIC): Users’ Manual and Technical Documentation

The carbon intensities (CIs) of biofuels are determined with the life cycle analysis (LCA) technique, which accounts for the energy/material uses and emissions during the complete supply chain of biofuel including feedstock production and fuel conversion stages. Regulatory agencies such as California Air Resources Board (CARB) adopts LCA to calculate biofuel CIs. The Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) program developed by CARB allows individual biofuel conversion facilities to submit their own biofuel CIs with their facility input data and incentivizes the reduction in the CI specific to that particular facility compared to a reference fuel’s CI (Liu et al 2020). Such an incentive program has driven innovations in biorefineries to reduce their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by linking their revenue directly to its CI score through LCFS credit trading. Besides the biofuel conversion stage, different farming practices for feedstock growth can result in significant CI variations for feedstocks, thus for biofuels. To provide evidence-based research findings, the U.S. Department of Energy’s Advanced Research Projects Agency–Energy (ARPA-E) has supported the Systems Assessment Center of the Energy Systems and Infrastructure Analysis Division at Argonne National Laboratory to examine CI variations of different farming practices to grow agricultural crops for biofuel production. Meanwhile, the ARPA-E has launched the Systems for Monitoring and Analytics for Renewable Transportation Fuels from Agricultural Resources and Management (SMARTFARM) program to develop technologies and data platforms that enable an accurate measurement of key farming parameters that can help robust accounting of the GHG benefits of sustainable, low-carbon agronomic practices at farm level.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Resilient Communities, Maryland (RCM): A Framework for Community-Driven Energy Resilience (Final Technical Report)

The Resilient Communities, Maryland (RCM) project integrates community-based participatory research (CBPR) approaches into energy resilience planning. The combination of qualitative, community-driven data and quantitative utility data improves both the effectiveness and efficiency of assessing the impacts of disruptions to energy infrastructure. Centered around a metric of critical services access, RCM created a repeatable framework for evaluating and modeling energy resilience in communities and promoted community engagement, resulting in more equitable stakeholder participation and improved decision-making processes for siting infrastructure to improve community energy resilience.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2019

Building an Economical and Sustainable Lunar Infrastructure to Enable Human Missions

To enable return of human missions to the surface of the Moon sustainably, a new study was initiated to assess the feasibility of developing an evolvable, economical and sustainable lunar surface infrastructure using a public-private partnerships approach. This approach would establish partnerships between NASA and private industry to mutually develop lunar surface infrastructure capabilities to support robotic missions initially and later evolve to full-scale commercial infrastructure services in support of human missions. These infrastructure services may range from power systems, communication and navigation systems, thermal management systems, mobility systems, water and propellant production to life support systems for human habitats. The public-private partnerships approach for this study leverages best practices from NASA’s Commercial Orbital Transportation Services (COTS) program which introduced an innovative and economical approach for partnering with industry to develop commercial cargo transportation services to the International Space Station (ISS). In this approach, NASA and industry partners shared cost and risk throughout the development phase which led to dramatic reduction in development and operations costs of these transportation services. Following this approach, a Lunar COTS concept was conceived to develop cost-effective surface infrastructure capabilities in partnership with industry to provide economical, operational services for small-scale robotic missions. As a result, a self-contained lunar infrastructure system with power, thermal, communication and navigation elements was conceptually designed to increase capability, extend mission duration and reduce cost of small-scale robotic missions. To support human missions, this work has now been extended to analyze full-scale lunar infrastructure systems. This infrastructure system should have capabilities to support human missions from a few days to several months with minimal maintenance and replacement of parts. This infrastructure system should also maximize the use of existing lunar resources, such as, oxygen from regolith, water from ice deposits at the poles, and use of metals, such as iron and aluminum, from lunar regolith. The plan includes a buildup of these capabilities using a phased-development approach that will eventually lead to operational infrastructure services. By partnering with industry to develop and operate the infrastructure services using the COTS model, this plan should also result in significant cost savings and increased reliability. This paper will describe the Lunar COTS concept goals, objectives and approach for developing an evolvable, economical and sustainable human lunar infrastructure as well as the challenges and opportunities for development.

Zuniga, Allison↗