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At least 253 records · Page 14

Modeling the turbulent kinetic energy equation for compressible, homogeneous turbulence

The turbulent kinetic energy transport equation, which is the basis of turbulence models, is investigated for homogeneous, compressible turbulence using direct numerical simulations performed at CTR. It is shown that the partition between dilatational and solenoidal modes is very sensitive to initial conditions for isotropic decaying turbulence but not for sheared flows. The importance of the dilatational dissipation and of the pressure-dilatation term is evidenced from simulations and a transport equation is proposed to evaluate the pressure-dilatation term evolution. This transport equation seems to work well for sheared flows but does not account for initial condition sensitivity in isotropic decay. An improved model is proposed.

Aupoix, B.↗

A comparison of limited-area energetic processes between observations and primitive equation model predictions

Energetic analyses of the NMC initial conditions and NMC six-layer primitive equation operational prediction model 12-hr forecast for a developing cyclone are presented. Consideration is given to the total kinetic energy, the energetics of the divergent and nondivergent flows and the baroclinic (vertical shear flow) and barotropic (vertical mean flow) components of the kinetic energy. It is found that the model initial conditions lose 10-15% of the kinetic energy at various levels compared to a limited-area multivariate statistical analysis of the observational data, leading to a decrease in the horizontal kinetic energy flux, a misrepresentation of the synoptic scale wave system in the 12-hr forecast. Similar results are obtained for the nondivergent flow, while the divergent flow energetics are not reproduced accurately by the model. The horizontal flux terms of the vertical mean and vertical shear energetics are also not found to be reproduced in the upper levels, although horizontal flux contributions to the baroclinic component are improved at middle and lower levels. Finally, vertical shear kinetic energy generation is found to be well represented in the model prediction, however kinetic energy conversion between vertical shear and mean flow is not reproduced in the lower layer.

Alpert, J. C.↗

Impacts of Degradation on Water, Energy, and Carbon Cycling of the Amazon Tropical Forests

Selective logging, fragmentation, and understory fires directly degrade forest structure and composition. However, studies addressing the effects of forest degradation on carbon, water, and energy cycles are scarce. Here, we integrate field observations and high‐resolution remote sensing from airborne lidar to provide realistic initial conditions to the Ecosystem Demography Model (ED‐2.2) and investigate how disturbances from forest degradation affect gross primary production (GPP), evapotranspiration (ET), and sensible heat flux (H). We used forest structural information retrieved from airborne lidar samples (13,500 ha) and calibrated with 817 inventory plots (0.25 ha) across precipitation and degradation gradients in the eastern Amazon as initial conditions to ED‐2.2 model. Our results show that the magnitude and seasonality of fluxes were modulated by changes in forest structure caused by degradation. During the dry season and under typical conditions, severely degraded forests (biomass loss ≥66%) experienced water stress with declines in ET (up to 34%) and GPP (up to 35%) and increases of H (up to 43%) and daily mean ground temperatures (up to 6.5°C) relative to intact forests. In contrast, the relative impact of forest degradation on energy, water, and carbon cycles markedly diminishes under extreme, multiyear droughts, as a consequence of severe stress experienced by intact forests. Our results highlight that the water and energy cycles in the Amazon are driven by not only climate and deforestation but also the past disturbance and changes of forest structure from degradation, suggesting a much broader influence of human land use activities on the tropical ecosystems.

Marcos Longo↗

GEOS-5 Seasonal Forecast System

Ensembles of numerical forecasts based on perturbed initial conditions have long been used to improve estimates of both weather and climate forecasts. The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model, Version 5 (GEOS-5 AOGCM) Seasonal-to-Interannual Forecast System has been used routinely by the GMAO since 2008, the current version since 2012. A coupled reanalysis starting in 1980 provides the initial conditions for the 9 month experimental forecasts. Once a month, sea surface temperature from a suite of 11 ensemble forecasts is contributed to the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) consensus project, which compares and distributes seasonal forecasts of ENSO events. Since June 2013, GEOS-5 forecasts of the Arctic sea-ice distribution were provided to the Sea-Ice Outlook project. The seasonal forecast output data includes surface fields, atmospheric and ocean fields, as well as sea ice thickness and area, and soil moisture variables. The current paper aims to document the characteristics of the GEOS-5 seasonal forecast system and to highlight forecast biases and skills of selected variables (sea surface temperature, air temperature at 2 m, precipitation and sea ice extent) to be used as a benchmark for the future GMAO seasonal forecast systems and to facilitate comparison with other global seasonal forecast systems.

GEOS-5↗

Multi-Maneuver Clohessy-Wiltshire Targeting

Orbital rendezvous involves execution of a sequence of maneuvers by a chaser vehicle to bring the chaser to a desired state relative to a target vehicle while meeting intermediate and final relative constraints. Intermediate and final relative constraints are necessary to meet a multitude of requirements such as to control approach direction, ensure relative position is adequate for operation of space-to-space communication systems and relative sensors, provide fail-safe trajectory features, and provide contingency hold points. The effect of maneuvers on constraints is often coupled, so the maneuvers must be solved for as a set. For example, maneuvers that affect orbital energy change both the chaser's height and downrange position relative to the target vehicle. Rendezvous designers use experience and rules-of-thumb to design a sequence of maneuvers and constraints. A non-iterative method is presented for targeting a rendezvous scenario that includes a sequence of maneuvers and relative constraints. This method is referred to as Multi-Maneuver Clohessy-Wiltshire Targeting (MM_CW_TGT). When a single maneuver is targeted to a single relative position, the classic CW targeting solution is obtained. The MM_CW_TGT method involves manipulation of the CW state transition matrix to form a linear system. As a starting point for forming the algorithm, the effects of a series of impulsive maneuvers on the state are derived. Simple and moderately complex examples are used to demonstrate the pattern of the resulting linear system. The general form of the pattern results in an algorithm for formation of the linear system. The resulting linear system relates the effect of maneuver components and initial conditions on relative constraints specified by the rendezvous designer. Solution of the linear system includes the straight-forward inverse of a square matrix. Inversion of the square matrix is assured if the designer poses a controllable scenario - a scenario where the the constraints can be met by the sequence of maneuvers. Matrices in the linear system are dependent on selection of maneuvers and constraints by the designer, but the matrices are independent of the chaser's initial conditions. For scenarios where the sequence of maneuvers and constraints are fixed, the linear system can be formed and the square matrix inverted prior to real-time operations. Example solutions are presented for several rendezvous scenarios to illustrate the utility of the method. The MM_CW_TGT method has been used during the preliminary design of rendezvous scenarios and is expected to be useful for iterative methods in the generation of an initial guess and corrections.

Dannemiller, David P.↗

Maximization of orbiter altitude at ALT interface airspeed, mission planning, mission analysis and software

The determination of the separation initial conditions (i.e. incidence angle) that maximize orbiter altitude at the ALT interface airspeed is considered. Optimum altitude airspeed profiles are generated for each orbiter incidence angle and tailcone configuration. Results show that the highest separation altitude does not result in the highest altitude at ALT interface airspeed. The altitude attainable at ALT interface airspeed should therefore be considered in the selection of the initial conditions (i.e. incidence angle). Without violating any known constraints, the incidence angles that maximize orbiter altitude at the ALT interface airspeeds are 7.0 deg for ALT free flight 1 and 5.5 deg for ALT free flight 6.

Glenn, G. M.↗

Ephemeris of a highly eccentric orbit - Explorer 28.

An ephemeris has been obtained for Explorer 28 (IMP 3) which agrees well with 2 years of radio observations and with SAO observations a year later. This ephemeris is generated over the 3 year lifetime by a numerical integration method utilizing a set of initial conditions at launch and without requiring further differential correction. Because highly eccentric orbits are difficult to compute with acceptable accuracy and because a long continuous arc has been obtained which compares with actual data to a known precision, this ephemeris may be used as a standard for computing highly eccentric orbits in the earth-moon system. Orbit improvement was used to obtain the initial conditions which generated the ephemeris. This improvement was based on correcting the energy by adjusting the semimajor axis to match computed times of perigee passage with the observed. This procedure may generate errors in semimajor axis to compensate for model errors in the energy; however, this compensation error is also implicit in orbit determination itself.

Lowrey, B. E.↗

Investigating Sensitivity to Saharan Dust in Tropical Cyclone Formation Using Nasa's Adjoint Model

As tropical cyclones develop from easterly waves coming of the coast of Africa they interact with dust from the Sahara desert. There is a long standing debate over whether this dust inhibits or advances the developing storm and how much influence it has. Dust can surround the storm and absorb incoming solar radiation, cooling the air below. As a result an energy source for the system is potentially diminished, inhibiting growth of the storm. Alternatively dust may interact with clouds through micro-physical processes, for example by causing more moisture to condense, potentially increasing the strength. As a result of climate change, concentrations and amount of dust in the atmosphere will likely change. It it is important to properly understand its effect on tropical storm formation. The adjoint of an atmospheric general circulation model provides a very powerful tool for investigating sensitivity to initial conditions. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has recently developed an adjoint version of the Goddard Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5) dynamical core, convection scheme, cloud model and radiation schemes. This is extended so that the interaction between dust and radiation is also accounted for in the adjoint model. This provides a framework for examining the sensitivity to dust in the initial conditions. Specifically the set up allows for an investigation into the extent to which dust affects cyclone strength through absorption of radiation. In this work we investigate the validity of using an adjoint model for examining sensitivity to dust in hurricane formation. We present sensitivity results for a number of systems that developed during the Atlantic hurricane season of 2006. During this period there was a significant outbreak of Saharan dust and it is has been argued that this outbreak was responsible for the relatively calm season. This period was also covered by an extensive observation campaign. It is shown that the adjoint can provide insight into the sensitivity and reveals a relatively low sensitivity to dust compared to, for example, the thermodynamic variables. However a secondary sensitivity though moisture is seen. If dust dries the air it can significantly reduce the cyclone intensity through the moisture.

Tropical Cyclones↗

Fuel conservative guidance concept for shipboard landing of powered-life aircraft

A simulation study was undertaken to investigate the application of energy conservative guidance (ECG) software, developed at NASA Ames Research Center, to improve the time and fuel efficiency of powered lift airplanes operating from aircraft carriers at sea. When a flightpath is indicated by a set of initial conditions for the aircraft and a set of positional waypoints with associated airspeeds, the ECG software synthesizes the necessary guidance commands to optimize fuel and time along the specified path. A major feature of the ECG system is the ability to synthesize a trajectory that will allow the aircraft to capture the specified path at any waypoint with the desired heading and airspeed from an arbitrary set of initial conditions. Five paths were identified and studied. These paths demonstrate the ECG system's ability to save flight time and fuel by more efficiently managing the aircraft's capabilities. Results of this simulation study show that when restrictions on the approach flightpath imposed for manual operation are removed completely, fuel consumption during the approach was reduced by as much as 49% (610 lb fuel) and the time required to fly the flightpath was reduced by as much as 41% (5 min). Savings due to ECG were produced by: (1) shortening the total flight time; (2) keeping the airspeed high as long as possible to minimize time spent flying in a regime in which more engine thrust is required for lift to aid the aerodynamic lift; (3) minimizing time spent flying at constant altitude at slow airspeeds; and (4) synthesizing a path from any location for a direct approach to landing without entering a holding pattern or other fixed approach path.

Warner, D. N., Jr.↗

Characteristics of obliquely propagating, nonlinear Alfven waves

Consideration is given to properties of obliquely propagating (with respect to the large-scale magnetic field) nonlinear Alfven and fast magnetosonic waves as described by the derivative nonlinear Schroedinger equation. The focus is on those waves which in the parallel-propagating limit are circularly polarized, exact solutions to the MHD equations. Results are presented of a study of the changes in the structure of these waves as the propagation angle is increased. Attention is also given to the evolution of initial conditions which do not correspond to stationary wave propagations. It is found that, as the propagation angle with respect to the mean field increases, the functional forms of the wave magnetic field components in the two directions orthogonal to the propagation direction become increasingly dissimilar. The angle about the mean field within which stationary waves resemble parallel-propagating, circularly polarized waves becomes smaller as the wavelength increases. If the 'initial condition' wave train is close to parallel-propagating, then there is little subsequent evolution in its form.

Spangler, Steven R.↗

Improving Global Reanalyses and Short-Range Forecast Using TRMM and SSM/I-Derived Precipitation and Moisture Observations

Global reanalyses currently contain significant errors in the primary fields of the hydrological cycle such as precipitation, evaporation, moisture, and the related cloud fields, especially in the tropics. The Data Assimilation Office (DAO) at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center has been exploring the use of tropical rainfall and total precipitable water (TPW) observations from the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) and the Special Sensor Microwave/ Imager (SSM/I) instruments to improve short-range forecast and reanalyses. We describe a 1+1D procedure for assimilating 6-hr averaged rainfall and TPW in the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Data Assimilation System (DAS). The algorithm is based on a 6-hr time integration of a column version of the GEOS DAS, hence the 1+1D designation. The scheme minimizes the least-square differences between the observed TPW and rain rates and those produced by the column model over the 6-hr analysis window. This 1+1D scheme, in its generalization to four dimensions, is related to the standard 4D variational assimilation but uses analysis increments instead of the initial condition as the control variable. Results show that assimilating the TMI and SSW rainfall and TPW observations improves not only the precipitation and moisture fields but also key climate parameters such as clouds, the radiation, the upper-tropospheric moisture, and the large-scale circulation in the tropics. In particular, assimilating these data reduce the state-dependent systematic errors in the assimilated products. The improved analysis also provides better initial conditions for short-range forecasts, but the improvements in forecast are less than improvements in the time-averaged assimilation fields, indicating that using these data types is effective in correcting biases and other errors of the forecast model in data assimilation.

Hou, Arthur Y.↗

Improving Global Reanalyses and Short Range Forecast Using TRMM and SSM/I-Derived Precipitation and Moisture Observations

Global reanalyses currently contain significant errors in the primary fields of the hydrological cycle such as precipitation, evaporation, moisture, and the related cloud fields, especially in the tropics. The Data Assimilation Office (DAO) at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center has been exploring the use of tropical rainfall and total precipitable water (TPW) observations from the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) and the Special Sensor Microwave/ Imager (SSM/I) instruments to improve short-range forecast and reanalyses. We describe a "1+1"D procedure for assimilating 6-hr averaged rainfall and TPW in the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Data Assimilation System (DAS). The algorithm is based on a 6-hr time integration of a column version of the GEOS DAS, hence the "1+1"D designation. The scheme minimizes the least-square differences between the observed TPW and rain rates and those produced by the column model over the 6-hr analysis window. This 1+lD scheme, in its generalization to four dimensions, is related to the standard 4D variational assimilation but uses analysis increments instead of the initial condition as the control variable. Results show that assimilating the TMI and SSM/I rainfall and TPW observations improves not only the precipitation and moisture fields but also key climate parameters such as clouds, the radiation, the upper-tropospheric moisture, and the large-scale circulation in the tropics. In particular, assimilating these data reduce the state-dependent systematic errors in the assimilated products. The improved analysis also provides better initial conditions for short-range forecasts, but the improvements in forecast are less than improvements in the time-averaged assimilation fields, indicating that using these data types is effective in correcting biases and other errors of the forecast model in data assimilation.

Hou, Arthur Y.↗

Direct Imaging of a Cold Jovian Exoplanet in Orbit around the Sun-Like Star GJ 504

Several exoplanets have recently been imaged at wide separations of >10 AU from their parent stars. These span a limited range of ages (<50 Myr) and atmospheric properties, with temperatures of 800-1800 K and very red colors (J −H > 0.5 mag), implying thick cloud covers. Furthermore, substantial model uncertainties exist at these young ages due to the unknown initial conditions at formation, which can lead to an order of magnitude of uncertainty in the modeled planet mass. Here, we report the direct imaging discovery of a Jovian exoplanet around the Sun-like star GJ 504, detected as part of the SEEDS survey. The system is older than all other known directly-imaged planets; as a result, its estimated mass remains in the planetary regime independent of uncertainties related to choices of initial conditions in the exoplanet modeling. Using the most common exoplanet cooling model, and given the system age of 160(+350/−60) Myr, GJ 504 b has an estimated mass of 4(+4.5/−1.0) Jupiter masses, among the lowest of directly imaged planets. Its projected separation of 43.5 AU exceeds the typical outer boundary of approx.. 30 AU predicted for the core accretion mechanism. GJ 504 b is also significantly cooler (510(+30/−20) K)) and has a bluer color (J − H = −0.23 mag) than previously imaged exoplanets, suggesting a largely cloud-free atmosphere accessible to spectroscopic characterization. Thus, it has the potential of providing novel insights into the origins of giant planets, as well as their atmospheric properties.

exoplanets↗

Developing a Hydrological Monitoring and Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Forecasting System for South and Southeast Asian River Basins

South and Southeast Asia is subject to significant hydrometeorological extremes, including drought. Under rising temperatures, growing populations, and an apparent weakening of the South Asian monsoon in recent decades, concerns regarding drought and its potential impacts on water and food security are on the rise. Reliable sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) hydrological forecasts could, in principle, help governments and international organizations to better assess risk and act in the face of an oncoming drought. Here, we leverage recent improvements in S2S meteorological forecasts and the growing power of Earth Observations to provide more accurate monitoring of hydrological states for forecast initialization. Information from both sources is merged in a South and Southeast Asia sub-seasonal to seasonal hydrological forecasting system (SAHFS-S2S), developed collaboratively with the NASA SERVIR program and end-users across the region. This system applies the Noah-MultiParameterization (NoahMP) Land Surface Model (LSM) in the NASA Land Information System (LIS), driven by downscaled meteorological fields from the Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) and Climate Hazards InfraRed Precipitation products (CHIRP and CHIRPS) to optimize initial conditions. The NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Model - sub-seasonal to seasonal (GEOS-S2S) forecasts, downscaled using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) General Analog Regression Downscaling (GARD) tool and quantile mapping, are then applied to drive 5-km resolution hydrological forecasts to a 9-month forecast time horizon. Results show that the skillful predictions of root zone soil moisture can be made one to two months in advance for forecasts initialized in rainy seasons and up to 8 months when initialized in dry seasons. The memory of accurate initial conditions can positively contribute to forecast skills throughout the entire 9-month prediction period in areas with limited precipitation. This SAHFS-S2S has been operationalized at the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) to support drought monitoring and warning needs in the region.

Yifan Zhou↗

Analysis of unsteady wave processes in a rotating channel

The impact of passage rotation on the gas dynamic wave processes is analyzed through a numerical simulation of ideal shock-tube flow in a closed rotating-channel. Initial conditions are prescribed by assuming homentropic solid-body rotation. Relevant parameters of the problem such as wheel Mach number, hub-to-tip radius ratio, length-to-tip radius ratio, diaphragm temperature ratio, and diaphragm pressure ratio are varied. The results suggest possible criteria for assessing the consequences of passage rotation on the wave processes, and they may therefore be applicable to pressure-exchange wave rotors. It is shown that for a fixed geometry and initial conditions, the contact interface acquires a distorted three-dimensional time-dependent orientation at non-zero wheel Mach numbers. At a fixed wheel Mach number, the level of distortion depends primarily on the density ratio across the interface as well as the hub-to-tip radius ratio. Rarefaction fronts, shocks, and contact interfaces are observed to propagate faster with increasing wheel Mach number.

Larosiliere, L. M.↗

Analysis of unsteady wave processes in a rotating channel

The impact of passage rotation on the gas dynamic wave processes is analyzed through a numerical simulation of ideal shock-tube flow in a closed rotating-channel. Initial conditions are prescribed by assuming homentropic solid-body rotation. Relevant parameters of the problem such as wheel Mach number, hub-to-tip radius ratio, length-to-tip radius ratio, diaphragm temperature ratio, and diaphragm pressure ratio are varied. The results suggest possible criteria for assessing the consequences of passage rotation on the wave processes, and they may therefore be applicable to pressure-exchange wave rotors. It is shown that for a fixed geometry and initial conditions, the contact interface acquires a distorted three-dimensional time-dependent orientation at non-zero wheel Mach numbers. At a fixed wheel Mach number, the level of distortion depends primarily on the density ratio across the interface as well as the hub-to-tip radius ratio. Rarefaction fronts, shocks, and contact interfaces are observed to propagate faster with increasing wheel Mach number.

Larosiliere, Louis M.↗

A quantitative approach to the topology of large-scale structure

A quantitative measure of the topology of large-scale structure: the genus of density contours in a smoothed density distribution, is described and applied. For random phase (Gaussian) density fields, the mean genus per unit volume exhibits a universal dependence on threshold density, with a normalizing factor that can be calculated from the power spectrum. If large-scale structure formed from the gravitational instability of small-amplitude density fluctuations, the topology observed today on suitable scales should follow the topology in the initial conditions. The technique is illustrated by applying it to simulations of galaxy clustering in a flat universe dominated by cold dark matter. The technique is also applied to a volume-limited sample of the CfA redshift survey and to a model in which galaxies reside on the surfaces of polyhedral 'bubbles'. The topology of the evolved mass distribution and 'biased' galaxy distribution in the cold dark matter models closely matches the topology of the density fluctuations in the initial conditions. The topology of the observational sample is consistent with the random phase, cold dark matter model.

Gott, J. Richard, III↗

Time dependent convection electric fields and plasma injection

A model of large-scale electric fields associated with storms or substorms consisting of realistic initial conditions and time dependent convection to explain a typical substorm-associated electron injection event is presented. These fields are responsible for inward convection and energization of plasma sheet electrons, and calculations based on steady state convection theory show that the response to such electric fields qualitatively accounts for many features of the injected particle distribution, but agreement with the theory has not been obtained. An adiabatic convection model which assumes that plasma sheet electrons are present outside of the initial electron boundaries which have an energy dependence appropriate for a small convection field representative of a steady, quiet magnetosphere is described. The position of the inner edge in which plasma sheet electrons of given W and alpha can be found for the assumed initial conditions and enhanced field is calculated providing convecting demarcation boundaries.

Kaye, S. M.↗