SEARCH · Search NASA
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.
This software is a suite of Python files and Jupyter notebooks supporting the calculation of cost and financial parameters for the Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) electricity data, including capital expenditures, levelized cost of energy, and debt fractions using the ATB input data.
The Flow Battery Cost and Commercialization Tool (FlowBaCC) is a python-based framework used to project the costs and commercialization timelines for redox flow batteries. FlowBaCC combines learning curves for component costs and performance with adoption curves for market diffusion to project future system costs. The tool uses the bottom-up, spreadsheet-based Battery Performance and Cost Model for Flow Batteries (BatPaC-Flow) as the engine to translate learning curve inputs into full system costs. FlowBaCC provides capital costs and levelized costs of energy storage. The tool enables scenario analysis, sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty quantification (via grid and Monte Carlo methods).
The quest for reduced levelized cost of energy has driven significant growth in wind turbine size; however, larger rotors face significant technical and logistical challenges. The largest published rotor design is 25 MW, and here we consider an even larger 50 MW design with blade length over 250 m. This paper shows that a 50 MW design is indeed possible from a detailed engineering perspective and presents a series of aero-structural blade designs, and critical assessment of technology pathways and challenges for extreme-scale rotors. The 50 MW rotor design begins with Monte Carlo simulations focused on optimizing carbon spar cap and root design. A baseline design resulted in a 250-m blade with mass of 502 tonnes. Subsequently, an aero-structural design and optimization were performed to reduce the blade mass/cost with more than 25% mass reduction and 30% cost reduction by determining optimal blade chord and airfoil thickness for best aero-structural performance.
Wind power plant sizes, hub heights, and turbine ratings have increased since 2008 to optimize the cost and performance of wind power; however, the limits of these economies of scale remain unclear. Here, we explore how the costs incurred to install turbines at a wind power plant—the balance-of-system (BOS) costs—scale with turbine rating, hub height, and plant size. We also investigate how these changes in BOS costs influence the levelized cost of energy (LCOE). We show that increasing the plant size from 150 to 400 MW could reduce the BOS costs by 21%. We also show that if the foundation costs decreased by 50%, building a wind power plant with 5-MW turbines (having rotor diameters of 166 m and hub heights of 120 m) could decrease the LCOE by 5%. These results could help inform future BOS cost-reduction opportunities and thereby reduce future capital costs for land-based wind power.
The Modular RivGen LCOE Content Model contains estimates of levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for three array configurations operating in a theoretical river environment. The LCOE is distinguished by the CapEx, OpEx, and annual energy production and capture for each river environment.
This report on historical hydropower operations and economic value focuses primarily on addressing HydroWIRES Objective 1.3: Advance valuation of conventional and pumped-storage hydropower assets. It is informed by previous work performed by Argonne and other national laboratories on the modeling and analysis of value of pumped storage and conventional hydropower. The results from this report will feed into the new projects that are planned under the HydroWIRES initiative and that will examine hydropower’s value in providing grid reliability and resilience, as well as in improving the modeling and representation of hydropower in power system models. Other relevant DOE efforts include various WPTO-funded projects, such as the Beyond Levelized Cost of Energy Project and Integrated Hydropower and Storage Systems, that are currently addressing similar challenges associated with defining grid service values that arise from hydropower machine capabilities.
This paper draws on a survey of solar industry professionals and other sources to clarify trends in the expected useful life and operational expenditure (OpEx) of utility-scale photovoltaic (PV) plants in the United States. Solar project developers, sponsors, long-term owners, and consultants have increased project-life assumptions over time, from an average of ~21.5 years in 2007 to ~32.5 years in 2019. Current assumptions range from 25 years to more than 35 years depending on the organization; 17 out of 19 organizations surveyed or reviewed use 30 years or more. Levelized, lifetime OpEx estimates have declined from an average of ~$\$$35/kW DC -yr for projects built in 2007 to an average of ~$\$$17/kW DC -yr in 2019. Across 13 sources, the range in average lifetime OpEx for projects built in 2019 is broad, from $\$$13 to $\$$25/kW DC -yr. Operations and maintenance (O&M) costs—one component of OpEx—have declined precipitously in recent years, to $\$$5-8/kW DC -yr in many cases. Property taxes and land lease costs are highly variable across sites, but on average are—together—of similar magnitude. Other OpEx line items include security, insurance, and asset management. Given 2007-2009 values for not only project life and OpEx but also other drivers of the levelized cost of energy (LCOE, excluding the investment tax credit), the LCOE for utility-scale PV projects built from 2007 through 2009 averaged $\$$305 /MWh. Using 2019 values for all parameters yields an average LCOE of $\$$51 /MWh. The decline in LCOE from $\$$305 /MWh to $\$$51 /MWh was predominantly caused by reductions in up-front expenditures (and, to a much lesser extent, by changes in capacity factors, financing costs, and tax rates), but 9% ($\$$22 /MWh) of the overall decline is due to improvements in project life and OpEx. Project life extensions and OpEx reductions have had similarly sized impacts on LCOE over this period, at $\$$11 /MWh each. Had project life and OpEx not improved over the last decade, LCOE in 2019 would have instead been $\$$73 /MWh—43% higher. Given the limited quantity and comparability of previously available data on these cost drivers, the data and trends presented here may inform assumptions used by electric system planners, modelers, and analysts. The results may also provide useful benchmarks to the solar industry, helping developers and assets owners compare their expectations for project life and OpEx with those of their peers.
As wind turbine blades continue to scale in length and total mass, the acceptability of traditional approaches for the engineering of processes to build these products has reached a limit. The continued need to reduce the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) drives manufacturing cycle times lower and the net mass of critical components challenges even the most experienced fabricators to meet the quality requirements for safe operating performance over the 25-year design life of the blade. In trying to reduce cycle time for key components of wind turbines, manufacturers discovered occasional buckling of fibers in wind turbine blade spar caps. The cause of the buckling was unknown. The goal of this project was to show that a comprehensive simulation, which considered all of the physics of the VARTM process, could identify the cause of the fiber buckling in spar caps that has been observed during the manufacturing process. Ultimately, the simulation determined the manufacturing process and parameters could lead to significant compressive stresses in the fibers eventually causing buckling. Simulation results suggest that the stress introduced from friction is the largest source of compressive stress in the fibers, the stress from the weight of gravity is significant but secondary, and the compressive stress from cure shrinkage does not play a significant role in the buckling of fibers. This report provides details of the testing and simulation methodology used to identify the cause of the fiber buckling.
Today's highest-efficiency silicon solar cells typically operate near the threshold between low-level and high-level injection. It is not well understood if pushing further into a regime in which the cell operating point is solidly in high-level injection at all times of the day has further benefits for the solar cell performance. From a reliability perspective, cells fabricated on lower doped silicon have a larger breakdown voltage. This advantage can affect the design of modules allowing higher voltages and a relaxation of the number of bypass diodes needed. In this project, we present a comprehensive assessment, both experimental and using simulation, of how bulk resistivity, light intensity, and operation temperature impact the performance of the silicon solar cell. This work incorporates a comprehensive device physics analysis assisted by numerical simulation. The source code is now available under General Public License (GPL3), and to further leverage the findings of this project and outreach people outside of the scientific community, we are working with www.pveducation.org (which receives >1 million visitors a year) to create interactive content using our simulation results. The simulation results indicate that high bulk resistivity wafers (>>10 Ωcm) require bulk Shockley-Read-Hall (SRH) lifetimes in the millisecond range to outperform wafers with standard bulk resistivities (<10 Ωcm). Additionally, above bulk resistivities of 10 Ωcm (the exact value depends on the bulk characteristics of the wafer), the cell efficiency is weakly dependent on the bulk resistivity. As a result, ingot manufactures may have an opportunity to further reduce wafer cost by growing higher resistivity ingots that are more tolerant to resistivity variations. This project is particularly relevant today, as solar cell architectures with improved surface passivation and milliseconds lifetimes wafers are commercially available, leveraging potential benefits of using higher bulk resistivities. Outside of interdigitated back contact (IBC) cell, reported studies on high resistivity silicon (>100 Ωcm) are very limited. To the best of our knowledge, this project provides for the first-time experimental insight on solar cells fabricated on wafers with bulk resistivities up to several thousand Ωcm, delivering a comprehensive vision of their performance under real-world temperature and light intensity operation conditions. We manufactured and characterized solar cells with bulk resistivities in the range of 1 Ωcm to >15k Ωcm. Under standard testing conditions (STC), we measured solar cells efficiencies over 20% over the entire range of bulk resistivities, using our baseline cell processing. To evaluate the cell performance in real-world operation conditions, the solar cells were measured at different temperatures (25-80°C) and at different light intensities (0.1-1 suns). The measurements show that the bulk resistivity does not impact the solar cell response to temperature and light intensity. Similar thermal coefficients (TC) were measured for standard and high bulk resistivities, and they are comparable with the TC values reported in the literature for standard bulk resistivities <10 Ωcm. After light soaking, the solar cell didn’t show signs of light-induced degradation (LID). This result was expected since n-type float zone (FZ) wafers were used in this work, i.e. low traces of boron and low concentration of oxygen (oxygen is typically found in the seed end of Czochralski (CZ) ingots). We measured for high bulk resistivities (>10 Ωcm) extremely high breakdown voltages (>1000V). In conclusion, the insight provided by this project can positively impact the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of the photovoltaic systems through its effect on cell and ingot manufacturing yield, silicon cell power output, and module reliability.
Berkeley Lab’s 2020 update of utility-scale solar data and trends provides an overview of key trends in the U.S. market, with a focus on 2019. Highlights of this year’s update include: More than 4.5 GWAC of utility-scale solar (i.e., ground-mounted solar projects larger than 5 MWAC) achieved commercial operations in 2019, bringing cumulative capacity to 29 GWAC. Projects are spread across all 10 regions that we track, though more heavily concentrated in the sunniest regions. The median installed cost of projects that came online in 2019 fell to $\$$1.4/WAC ($\$$1.2/WDC), down 20% from 2018 and down by more than 70% from 2010. 77% of projects and 88% of capacity added in 2019 used single-axis tracking. Average capacity factors range from 17% in the least-sunny regions to 30% where it is sunniest. Single-axis tracking adds roughly five percentage points to capacity factor in the regions with the strongest solar resource. Nationwide average levelized power purchase agreement (PPA) prices fell to $\$$24/MWh in 2019, down 17% from 2018 and more than 80% since 2010. Thirty-nine projects (totaling 4.2 GWAC) in our PPA price sample include battery storage (totaling 2.3 GWAC and 9.5 GWh). In the “lower 48” states, a number of these recent PV+battery PPAs have been inked in the mid-$\$$20/MWh range (levelized in 2019 dollars).Not including the 30% investment tax credit (ITC), the median levelized cost of energy (LCOE) from utility-scale PV has declined by 85% since 2010, to $\$$40/MWh in 2019. When the 30% ITC is included within the LCOE calculation, the median LCOE closely tracks the median PPA price over time. In higher-penetration markets like CAISO, the value of solar has been declining, but falling PPA prices have largely kept pace, preserving solar's net value. At the end of 2019, there were nearly 370 GW of solar in interconnection queues from all 7 ISOs and 30 additional utilities across the country. Nearly a third of this proposed solar capacity is paired with battery storage.
The overall Project (Project) objective is to materially decrease the leveled cost of energy (LCOE) of the Columbia Power (CPwr) StingRAY utility-scale wave energy converter (WEC). This will be achieved by reducing structural material and manufacturing costs and increasing energy output. In this Project, improving the overall Power-to-Weight ratio (PWR) is accomplished through lowering design margins - allowing for weight reduction and more efficient, cost-effective WEC manufacturing and assembly - and by optimizing mass-related WEC performance parameters, such as center of gravity and system inertia. A mixed materials approach to further structural optimization was developed under this Project and validated with extensive laboratory structural testing. This approach substitutes fiber-reinforced plastic (FRP) for steel where appropriate. The benefits of steel are maintained where most useful, for instance at structural joints where the stiffness of steel is required, and the complex geometry is more readily fabricated with steel. However, there are structural spans whose simple shapes are readily fabricated with mandrel-wound FRP and where significant cost and weight savings can be found. An adhesive, double lap shear joint is used to join the FRP and steel subcomponents.
This report provides a cost analysis of potential hydropower development for representative non-powered dam (NPD) sites in the United States. The overarching objective is to support the establishment of a basis for evaluating progress towards improving the competitiveness of new hydropower development for electricity generation. The representative sites, herein referred to as “reference sites”, were selected from sites with detailed water resource data to support the cost analysis. Facility designs, capital costs, plant generation and efficiency profiles, capacity factors, and levelized costs of energy (LCOE) are presented for the sites under baseline and near-term innovation cases. The baseline case represents facility configurations using technologies that are already widely applied in the hydropower industry, whereas near-term innovations are technologies likely to reach wide acceptance within the next 5 to 10 years. Cost savings in the near-term relative to the baseline are discussed to illustrate the potential benefits to the hydropower industry from research and development (R&D) and adoption of these innovations. Medium- to long-term innovation options expected from ongoing private and government R&D efforts are also highlighted but are not quantified in this report because of a current lack of complete information on these options. The key findings of the cost analysis in this study imply that near-term innovations could reduce the baseline costs of hydropower development at US NPD sites. Thus, if remaining R&D issues with these near-term innovations can be resolved within the next 5 to 10 years, industry-wide adoption of these technologies and improved competitiveness of NPD hydropower development can be expected. Specific key findings of the analysis include the following: 1) Potential installed capacity at the NPD sites evaluated in this study vary from 200 kW to 70 MW, representing two orders of magnitude variation across nearly 20 sites; 2) Capital costs, not including development costs, for the sites evaluated in this study vary from $2,200/kW to $34,000/kW but are below $12,000/kW for most sites; 3) Baseline LCOE estimates for lake dams are from $79/MWh to $790/MWh with most sites under $400/MWh, whereas estimates for lock dams are from $134/MWh to $289/MWh with most sites under $200/MWh; 4) Reductions in capital cost per kilowatt under the near-term innovation case are from −77% to −14% for lake dams and −21% to −2.1% for lock dams (excluding one site with a 14% increase in per-kilowatt capital costs); 5) Combined changes in capital costs and capacity factors in the near-term case relative to the baseline lead to reductions in LCOE of −71% to −14% for lake dams and −21% to −14% for lock dams; 6) Overall, LCOE reductions lead to 8 of the 18 sites under the near-term case having LCOE values below $150/MWh compared with only 2 of 18 sites in the baseline case.
The study provides heat maps showing updated estimates of the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for floating offshore wind energy off the coast of Oregon. This project builds on a 2019 National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) floating offshore wind power cost study in Oregon (Musial et al. 2019) and a recent NREL California cost analysis (Beiter et al. 2020). Floating wind power cost data, modeling methodology, and resource data are updated and LCOE is estimated through 2032 using 2019 as a reference year. Comparisons are made to the previous offshore wind energy cost studies (Musial et al. 2019; Beiter et al. 2020). The study does not prioritize specific sites or make judgments about marine spatial planning viability.
Current wind turbine blade materials may not be damage tolerant to the extent necessary to optimize the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) of wind energy plants. Traditionally, wind turbine blades have been designed using a safe-life approach, but advances in inspection techniques and structural health monitoring solutions give rise to the opportunity to design wind turbine blades using a damage tolerant approach. Materials selection is a key element of da mage tolerant design, so the extent of the damage tolerance of alternative materials has been analyzed through a literature review and discussions with industry leaders. Fabrics and resin selection significantly affect the damage tolerance of composites. Changes to fabric architecture may include through-the-thickness (TTT) fibers, stretch-broken carbon fiber (SBCF) composites, and aligned discontinuous fiber reinforced composites (ADFRCs). Previous research has demonstrated that using TTT fibers in creases damage tolerance, but additional research is necessary to demonstrate the effectiveness of SBCFs and ADFRCs in mitigating damage. Several studies have demonstrated increased damage tolerance when toughened resin systems are used. In addition to toughened resin systems, thermoplastics have been shown to be tougher than thermosets. However, thermosets have been traditionally preferred in wind turbine blade manufacturing due to ease of manufacturing. Thermoplastic resin system s have been developed that can be used with conventional manufacturing methods but have yet to be studied for its damage tolerant capabilities. Furthermore, cost and stress analyses on where to effectively implement TTT fibers, SBCF composites, ADFRCs, and toughened resin systems must be executed prior to incorporating new materials into wind turbine blade manufacturing.
Financial risk resulting from the uncertainty associated with developing, owning, and operating wind power plants remains a barrier to reducing the levelized cost of energy (LCOE). On average, modern wind power plants in the U.S. underperform their expected annual energy output by 3.5-4.5% , with many underperforming by over 10%. To compensate for this uncertainty, investors require a larger return on investment (ROI) and apply "knock-down" factors that mask much of the underlying sources of uncertainty. Wind energy projects thus have reduced access to low-cost capital. Furthermore, operating wind plants often take a simple approach to estimating operations & maintenance (O&M) costs (e.g. straight-line estimates based on similar plants), which can eat into profits. To overcome these issues, the wind industry must improve the models they use for estimating wind plant performance and operations. An industry consortium (IC) requested that the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) lead a Department of Energy (DOE) working group to benchmark the accuracy of wind power plant energy predictions against real operational data. The IC was also motivated by DOE and NREL's potential to characterize systematic energy underperformance, identify sources of uncertainty, and explore root causes. The Wind Plant Performance Prediction (WP3) project was created out of this request, and this report represents the successful completion of Phase 1 of the WP3 project. During the project, wind plant owners provided both pre-construction and operational data to NREL. The pre-construction data was provided to wind resource assessment (WRA) consultants so they could conduct energy yield assessments (EYA). NREL took all of the completed EYAs, along with the operational data, and conducted an operational assessment to benchmark the EYA results against actual operational data. Given the large amounts of sensitive data required for this effort, as well as historical opposition to sharing data within industry, successful completion of Phase 1 represents an unprecedented milestone for industry data sharing. To improve the accuracy and confidence of pre-construction EYAs, wind plant owners and investors need better, more certain, energy yield predictions. The WP3 Benchmark Project is an industry-driven response to this reality. For the first time, industry has taken the important step of working together at scale, sharing valuable operational data with DOE and NREL in order to investigate the sources of bias and uncertainty in these energy estimates. This IC provides wind plant preconstruction and operational data to NREL in an organized and documented fashion and provides guidance and feedback as needed. The IC also provides introspection of the design of experiment, key metrics of success, data challenges, analysis best practices, and quality of results.
This report benchmarks 2020 PV module minimum sustainable price (MSP) via bottom-up manufacturing cost analysis, for established PV technologies in mass production, including crystalline silicon, cadmium telluride (CdTe), and copper indium gallium (di)selenide. We provide technology roadmaps to additional MSP reductions for these PV technologies. Separately, we consider III-V and perovskite PV technologies which are currently in small-scale or pilot production. Finally, this report uses a technology evolution framework (TEF) to analyze drivers of levelized cost of energy reductions, including installed system cost - which is heavily influenced by module price - as well as service life and annual energy yield.
This report analyzes potential collaborations between the geothermal and locatable mineral industries (focused on the portion of the Basin and Range Province within Nevada, United States of America). The objectives of this study included analyzing: 1. The type and quality of data collected by the locatable mineral industry to determine feasibility for geothermal resource exploration; 2. The regulatory pathways and potential barriers that could prevent development of geothermal resources discovered via a mining claim (and vice versa) in the United States; 3. The historical development of geothermal resources discovered via mineral exploration data in the United States and illustrations of co-located mining and geothermal power projects; 4. The value propositions for both the locatable mineral and the geothermal industries to collaborate. This article concludes that many of the data collected by the mining industry as part of locatable mineral exploration (e.g., copper, gold, lithium) would also be useful for identifying and developing previously unknown geothermal resources (and in some notable cases, already have led to geothermal resource development). In addition, for minimal costs, the mining industry could catalogue these data and potentially monetize the data itself or use the data in the future to develop a geothermal project. Leveraging these locatable mineral data to develop geothermal resources and/or co-located minerals and geothermal resources would represent significant cost savings when compared to developing geothermal resources under a business-as-usual scenario as well as compared to current generating technologies (e.g., diesel-powered generators) employed at remote mining operations. Ultimately, leveraging mining industry data, knowledge, and expertise serves to effectively expand the geothermal exploration workforce, increase the rate of geothermal resource discovery, and potentially reduce geothermal electricity's levelized cost of energy (LCOE) by 23%-29%.
ct: PV service lifetime prediction (SLP) enables accurate calculation of levelized cost of energy (LCOE), which is crucial to rationalizing PV investment and installation. However, SLP is challeging since PV reliability in the field is affected by many combined factors, including various environmental stresses and module quality. In order to map out the active degradation mechanisms and pathways that best resemble real world conditions, we introduce the framework of a study protocol and use network models fitted to data, to enable analysis and SLP of complex PV systems with multiple active degradation mechanisms. The study protocol is the experimental design, including module variants and different exposure conditions, selection of evaluation methods, time-series data acquisition and training of network models to these data. We present SLP of minimodules in the lab and PV systems in the field. For lab SLP, minimodules with 8 variants based on manufacturer, architecture, and encapsulation were prepared and aged in modified damp heat with or without full spectrum light exposure. Stepwise I-V and Suns-Voc data acquisition tracks changes in electrical properties including Rs,IV, Isc,IV, Vmp,PIV providing insights into power loss of minimodules. Network structural equation modeling (netSEM) was utilized to construct degradation pathway models that identify active degradation mechanisms and predict power loss over time. For field SLP, datastreams of Pmp values and I-V curve datastreams of two types of modules installed in three distinctly different Köppen-Geiger climate zones for 9 years were acquired. With power loss modes corresponding to uniform current loss (ΔPIsc), recombination (ΔPVoc), series resistance (ΔPRs), and current mismatch (ΔPImis) determined, the performance loss rates (PLR) were determined using PVplr. We show how to establish a study protocol framework to ensure appropriate parametric variations and valid data collection from the variants of your complex systems. Then the data-driven netSEM model fitting provides a comprehensive mapping of multiple active degradation mechanisms, and accurate service life prediction.