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Results for “lifetime prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 253 records · Page 14
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2022

Fracture Mechanics Properties of Fused Silicas Used for International Space Station Windowpanes

The fracture toughness and slow crack growth (SCG) parameters of a quartz-based silica and a high-purity fused silica were measured as part of a program to review the reliability of the International Space Station windows. The materials exhibit the same fracture toughness (.75 MPa m^(1/2) in N2) and very similar SCG parameters. The literature on fused silica indicates excellent agreement of fracture toughness, but a very wide range of SCG parameters, even from the same institution, with strength-based methods usually yielding a lower power law exponent than direct crack velocity measurements. Use of the exponential function is shown to provide better agreement between test methods, with velocity curves derived from strength tests of bare fiber and polished or ground test specimens paralleling those from wide-range, direct crack velocity observations, implying that constant stress rate tests can predict long lifetime via the exponential function. However, much variation still exists. SCG parameters for soda–lime silicate are much less sensitive to the test method than fused silica. Static load tests and stress intensity measurements resulted in a fatigue threshold of .3 MPa m^(1/2) for fused silica.

Silica, toughness, impact, crack growth, windows, ↗
NASA NTRS2021

The Case for a 50+ Year Radioisotope Power System

The Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory (JHU/APL) is leading the NASA funded Interstellar Probe study to explore the “Very Local” interstellar medium. To perform this exploration the mission will be required to last at least 50 years in regions of space where solar power is no longer practical. Additionally, several new studies for the National Academies’ Planetary Science and Astrobiology Decadal Survey are planning missions lasting 20-35 years. The Decadal Survey is used to build consensus on priority of national science goals. These proposed missions are inconsistent with the NASA’s current Radioisotope Power Systems (RPS) life requirement of 14 years (flight). Paramount to these proposed long-duration missions are questions about the longevity of such a mission. Evidence exists that space-borne Radioisotope Power Systems can indeed last a long time. LES-9, Voyager I, and Voyager II are over 40 years old, LES-8, Pioneer 10, and Pioneer 11 lasted 28, 30, and 22 years, respectively, and New Horizons is still active 15 years after launch. This paper explores the need for RPS designs that are intended to last much longer than the current requirement of 14 years (17 years after fueling) and explores the historical record for actual vs design lifetimes to show the feasibility of building long lasting RPS. We also exercise a current RTG performance model of the General-Purpose Heat Source RTG using the JPL Lifetime Performance Prediction (LPP) tool to make top-level inferences about power output at end-of-mission, and discusses how reliability engineering and testing methods can be brought to bear to increase confidence in delivering sufficient power at end-of-mission.

Phan, Brian↗
DOE OSTI2021

Accelerated Beta Radiation Aging of Interlayer Titanium Nitride in Gallium Nitride Contacts

Research conducted under the Laboratory Directed Research and Development Program at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, a multiprogram national laboratory operated by Battelle for the U.S. Department of Energy. An NNSS author co-authored this paper, and portions of this work were supported by the Mission Support and Test Services, LLC, under Contract No. DE-NA0003624 with the U.S. Department of Energy, National Nuclear Security Administration, NA-10 USDOE NA Office of Defense Programs (NA-10). PNNL-SA-163618 Currently, there is no good way to determine the influence of radiation on the aging of betavoltaic electrical contacts. This work tested a method to accelerate the aging of the contacts inside a betavoltaic by enhancing energy deposition within the interfacial region of interest. An electrical contact of gold-titanium on gallium nitride was aged by exposure to tritium betas and electrons in a beamline. The interface stoichiometry was compared to the electrical performance of the contact. The method to age the betavoltaic component could help predict the lifetime performance of the internal electrical contacts and provide assurance of deployment reliability.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

A reactive tracer method for predicting EGS reservoir geometry and thermal lifetime: development and field validation

The project summarized here (DOE Award No. DE-EE0006764) was intended to develop a methodology for predicting advective heat transfer in fracture-dominated crystalline rock. Our goal was to determine if a combination of inert and reactive tracers could adequately constrain the effective heat transfer surface area between an injection-production well pair. Our approach consisted of: 1. developing a novel computational framework; 2. Performing heat and tracer experiments at meso-scale; and 3. Comparing predictions of advective heat transfer to the “true” thermal breakthrough measured at the Altona site. Below is a summary of project activities/findings, a summary of project tasks, and a conclusion

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Auto-BLAST (AutoBLAST) [SWR-20-93]

Battery life modeling often involves a lot of manual parameter fitting and is not easy for users to adopt the model and use it. To reduce the difficulties for users to adopt battery lifetime models, an automatic battery lifetime modeling analysis and simulation tool suite, Auto-BLAST, has been developed. Auto-BLAST includes a lithium-loss-base life model, a battery electric model, and an algorithm which automatically fits all key parameters in the electric and life models using user provided data. The models and algorithm are packaged into two user-friendly GUIs, Auto-LifeMod, for easy battery life prognostic model fitting and Auto-LifeSim, for easy battery lifetime simulation. The lithium-loss-based life model adopts a similar model framework that models degradations using aging rate models, using battery cycling data to predict battery degradation and expected lifetime. The electric model is an equivalent circuit model which simulates battery voltage responses based on current/power demand profiles. The auto-fitting algorithm uses the user-input data to generate custom battery life model(s). Two GUIs, wrapping around the life model and the auto-fitting algorithm, provide friendly interfaces for users to generate a life model and use it for case study. One GUI requires summary data from accelerated battery life degradation tests as an input and produces battery life models predicting (a) capacity degradation, and (b) resistance growth of the battery. The GUI displays the electrical model response and the input experimental data against the life model predictions with fitted model parameters and fitting error. The GUI also generates an output file to save the fitted model parameters. The second GUI uses the life model from the first GUI and a user-defined battery cycling profile to predict battery lifetime degradation and expected lifetime. Predicted capacity and resistance vs. time are plotted in the GUI and saved to output file. There is a user guide for both GUIs

Mishra, Partha↗
DOE OSTI2021

Twist Angle-Dependent Interlayer Exciton Lifetimes in van der Waals Heterostructures

In van der Waals (vdW) heterostructures formed by stacking two monolayers of transition metal dichalcogenides, multiple exciton resonances with highly tunable properties are formed and subject to both vertical and lateral confinement. We investigate how a unique control knob, the twist angle between the two monolayers, can be used to control the exciton dynamics. We observe that the interlayer exciton lifetimes in MoSe 2 /WSe 2 twisted bilayers (TBLs) change by one order of magnitude when the twist angle is varied from 1° to 3.5°. Additionally, using a low-energy continuum model, we theoretically separate two leading mechanisms that influence interlayer exciton radiative lifetimes. The shift to indirect transitions in the momentum space with an increasing twist angle and the energy modulation from the moiré potential both have a significant impact on interlayer exciton lifetimes. We further predict distinct temperature dependence of interlayer exciton lifetimes in TBLs with different twist angles, which is partially validated by experiments. While many recent studies have highlighted how the twist angle in a vdW TBL can be used to engineer the ground states and quantum phases due to many-body interaction, our studies explore its role in controlling the dynamics of optically excited states, thus, expanding the conceptual applications of “twistronics”.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS2008

Estimating the Reliability of Electronic Parts in High Radiation Fields

Radiation effects on materials and electronic parts constrain the lifetime of flight systems visiting Europa. Understanding mission lifetime limits is critical to the design and planning of such a mission. Therefore, the operational aspects of radiation dose are a mission success issue. To predict and manage mission lifetime in a high radiation environment, system engineers need capable tools to trade radiation design choices against system design and reliability, and science achievements. Conventional tools and approaches provided past missions with conservative designs without the ability to predict their lifetime beyond the baseline mission.This paper describes a more systematic approach to understanding spacecraft design margin, allowing better prediction of spacecraft lifetime. This is possible because of newly available electronic parts radiation effects statistics and an enhanced spacecraft system reliability methodology. This new approach can be used in conjunction with traditional approaches for mission design. This paper describes the fundamentals of the new methodology.

radiation↗
NASA NTRS1992

Advances in materials and current collecting networks for AMTEC electrodes

Electrode materials for the Alkali Metal Thermal to Electric Converter (AMTEC) play a significant role in the efficiency of the device. RhW and PtW alloys have been studied to determine the best performing material. While RhW electrodes typically have power densities somewhat lower than PtW electrodes, PtW performance is strongly influenced by the Pt/W ratio. The best performing Pt/W ratio is about 3.4. RhW electrodes sinter more slowly than PtW and are predicted to have operating lifetimes up to 40 years; PtW electrodes are predicted to have lifetimes up to 7 years. Interaction with the current collection network can significantly decrease lifetime by inducing metal migration and segregation and by accelerating the sintering rate.

Ryan, M. A.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Increase in atmospheric CHF2Cl (HCFC-22) over southern California from 1985 to 1990

Column densities of CHF2Cl (HCFC-22) have been measured over Table Mountain Facility (TMF), Wrightwood, California (34.4 deg N) using the Atmospheric Trace Molecule Spectroscopy (ATMOS) Fourier-transform infrared (FTIR) spectrometer. Between October 1985 and July 1990, the exponential column increase rate was (6.7 +/- 0.5)%/yr. Additionally, column measurements of CHF2Cl over McMurdo Sound, Antarctica (78 deg S) in September and October 1986 by the MarkIV FTIR spectrometer were used to derive a south-north interhemispheric ratio of (0.86 +/- 0.08). Model calculations investigated the feasibility of using CHF2Cl column measurements with a predicted global OH field to determine a globally averaged chemical lifetime for CHF2Cl, or equivalently, an estimate of the OH field using a predicted lifetime. The current uncertainty in historical CHF2Cl emissions is too large for CHF2Cl to be used to infer adequately either the lifetime or the OH field.

Irion, Fredrick W.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Early calendar life and health prediction of silicon batteries via machine learning with uncertainty quantification

Lithium-ion batteries with silicon anodes promise high energy density but are limited by calendar lifetime. Reducing the long iteration time to obtain experimental results requires predicting calendar lifetime early in a cell's life. In this study, we demonstrate that lightweight machine learning models with feature engineering can provide calendar lifetime estimates from early electrochemical signals. After 1 month of electrochemical aging, the best models achieve 10% error in calendar-life prediction and can separate "bad" from "good" lifetime cells with a mean F1 score of 0.857. As battery systems exhibit inherent variability, four methods for uncertainty quantification are compared, and confidence intervals are demonstrated with an uncertainty of +-3.6 months in lifetime prediction. A feature importance analysis indicates that early patterns in voltage decay are the strongest indicators of calendar lifetime. Finally, this modeling approach has high error when generalizing to new electrode chemistries or testing conditions but with appropriately low confidence.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Identification of Life Models for Li-Ion Batteries Using Penalized Regression and Bilevel Optimization

Reduced-order physics-based life models are extremely useful for rapidly predicting battery state-of-health and for simulating battery lifetime in arbitrary aging conditions. However, identification of well-parameterized models is difficult. This is because, for maximum usefulness in predicting lifetime under a variety of conditions, aging test data exhibits many degradation mechanisms, which all need to be accurately modeled. However, because aging tests are time-consuming and expensive, especially for large-format batteries, a minimum of tests are conducted while probing many stress factors. Building a well-parameterized model is then very challenging: an under-parameterized model will neglect critical degradation modes, and an over-parameterized model will extrapolate poorly to new testing conditions. To complicate this matter, the functional form of the model for any individual degradation rate can be very difficult to identify. In this work, the statistical tools of penalized regression and bilevel optimization are used to help identify both the functional forms of and optimize the parameters of reduced-order life models, accelerating identification of robust models. Model robustness is demonstrated through traditional statistics methods of cross-validation and sensitivity analysis, uncertainty quantification through bootstrap resampling and Monte-Carlo simulation, and simulation of real-world use cases.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Transverse Beam Tails and Beam Lifetime in the EIC Electron Storage Ring

For most storage ring design purposes it is sufficient to assume a Gaussian distribution of the electrons in a bunch. However, a more detailed knowledge of the population in the transverse tails beyond a few sigma is necessary to predict the beam lifetime and the synchrotron radiation load in the interaction region due to beam-gas scattering and the beam-beam interaction. This report presents simulations to determine the required vacuum level as well as to serve as input data for detailed synchrotron radiation simulations.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

BLAST-Lite (Battery Lifetime Analysis and Simulation Tool - Lite) [SWR-22-69] Related to: BLAST aka: BLAST-Py

Battery Lifetime Analysis and Simulation Toolsuite (BLAST) provides a library of battery lifetime and degradation models for various commercial lithium-ion batteries from recent years. Degradation models are identified from publicly available lab-based aging data using NREL's battery life model identification toolkit. The battery life models predicted the expected lifetime of batteries used in mobile or stationary applications as functions of their temperature and use (state-of-charge, depth-of-discharge, and charge/discharge rates). Model implementation is in both Python and MATLAB programming languages. The MATLAB code also provides example applications (stationary storage and EV), climate data, and simple thermal management options. For more information on battery health diagnostics, prediction, and optimization, see NREL's Battery Lifespan webpage.

Smith, Kandler↗
DOE OSTI2021

Reduction of bright exciton lifetimes by radiation-induced disorder

Quantum-radiative decay is a fundamental process in many optoelectronic systems such as laser diodes and solar cells. The bright exciton lifetime is a critical factor in determining the performance of these systems. Motivated by the ever-increasing need for laser systems in space and nuclear applications, we develop a many-particle approach to predict the radiative lifetime under harsh radiation environments. Here, using GaAs as a model system, we find that radiation-induced band tailing reduces the bright exciton lifetime. This result shows that the efficiency of radiative recombination, in addition to nonradiative recombination, can be affected by ionization radiation. Our approach enables a detailed understanding of the interplay between correlation, localization, and radiation that affect the performance of gain media.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multivariable degradation modeling and life prediction using multivariate fractional Brownian motion

In system prognostics and health management, multivariable degradation models have been widely developed to predict the life of complex systems using degradation data of multiple Performance Characteristics (PCs). Recent studies have detected a Long-Term Memory (LTM) effect among the degradation process of various PCs, implying a strong coupling phenomenon between the future degradation behavior and historical degradation trajectory. Although the LTM has been widely integrated into single-PC-based degradation modeling, it has not been considered in multi-PC-based scenarios. To capture LTM among multiple PCs, this article proposes a novel LTM-integrated Multivariate Degradation Model (MDM) for system life prediction based on multivariate fractional Brownian motion, which simultaneously incorporates the cross-correlation among different PCs. To estimate parameters of the LTM-integrated MDM, a maximum likelihood method is developed. Here, two likelihood-ratio hypothesis tests are developed to test the existence of the overall and individual LTM effect among multiple PCs. Both simulation studies and physical experiments on the performance degradation of solar energy conversion and storage devices are conducted to validate the proposed model. Results reveal that the proposed LTM-integrated MDM significantly outperforms existing MDMs in life prediction, while the lifetime uncertainty is heavily underestimated by those traditional approaches that neglect the LTM.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS1991

Stirling engine: Available tools for long-life assessment

A review is presented for the durability approaches applicable to long-time life assessment of Stirling engine hot-section components. The crucial elements are experimental techniques for generating long-time materials property data (both monotonic and cyclic flow and failure properties); analytic representations of slow strain rate material stress-strain response characteristics (monotonic and cyclic constitutive relations) at high temperatures and low stresses and strains; analytic creep-fatigue-environmental interaction life prediction methods applicable to long lifetimes at high temperatures and small stresses and strains; and experimental verification of life predictions. Long-lifetime design criteria for materials of interest are woefully lacking. Designing against failures due to creep, creep-rupture, fatigue, environmental attack, and creep-fatigue-environmental interaction will require considerable extrapolation. Viscoplastic constitutive models and time-temperature parameters will have to be calibrated for the hot-section materials of interest. Analysis combined with limited verification testing in a short-time regime will be required to build confidence in long-lifetime durability models.

Halford, Gary R.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Stirling engine - Available tools for long-life assessment

A review is presented for the durability approaches applicable to long-time life assessment of Stirling engine hot-section components. The crucial elements are experimental techniques for generating long-time materials property data (both monotonic and cyclic flow and failure properties); analytic representations of slow strain rate material stress-strain response characteristics (monotonic and cyclic constitutive relations) at high temperatures and low stresses and strains; analytic creep-fatigue-environmental interaction life prediction methods applicable to long lifetimes at high temperatures and small stresses and strains; and experimental verification of life predictions. Long-lifetime design criteria for materials of interest are woefully lacking. Designing against failures due to creep, creep-rupture, fatigue, environmental attack, and creep-failure-environmental interaction will require considerable extrapolation. Viscoplastic constitutive models and time-temperature parameters will have to be calibrated for the hot-section materials of interest. Analysis combined with limited verification testing in a short-time regime will be required to build confidence in long-lifetime durability models.

Halford, Gary R.↗