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DOE OSTI2025

High sensitivity of simulated fog properties to parameterized aerosol activation in case studies from ParisFog

Aerosols influence fog properties such as visibility and lifetime by affecting fog droplet number concentrations (N d ). Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models often represent aerosol–fog interactions using highly simplified approaches. Incorporating prognostic size-resolved aerosol microphysics from climate models could allow them to simulate N d and aerosol–fog interactions without incurring excessive computational expense. However, microphysics code designed for coarse spatial resolution may struggle with sub-kilometer-scale grid spacings. Here, we test the ability of the UK Met Office Unified Model to simulate aerosol and fog properties during case studies from the ParisFog field campaign in 2011. We examine the sensitivity of fog properties to variations in N d caused by modifications to simulated aerosol activation. Our model, with a 500 m horizontal resolution and interactive aerosol and cloud microphysics, significantly underpredicts N d , although it only slightly underestimates the cloud condensation nuclei concentration. With an updated version of the Abdul-Razzak and Ghan (2000) activation scheme, we produce N d that are more consistent with those predicted by a cloud parcel model under fog-like conditions. We activate droplets only by adiabatic cooling. We incorporate more realistic hygroscopicities for sulfate and organic aerosols and explore the sensitivity of simulated N d to unresolved updrafts. We find that both N d and simulated fog liquid water content are very sensitive to the updated activation scheme but remain less affected by the update to hygroscopicities. Our improvements offer insights into the physical processes regulating N d in stable conditions, potentially laying foundations for improved operational fog forecasts that incorporate interactive aerosol simulations or aerosol climatologies.

Ghosh, Pratapaditya [Carnegie Mellon University, P↗
DOE OSTI2021

DuraMAT (Durable Module Materials Consortium) Annual Report FY 2020

The Durable Module Materials Consortium (DuraMAT) launched in November 2016 with five years of funding as part of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Energy Materials Network. DuraMAT is a multilab consortium, led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia), with SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory (SLAC) and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) as core research labs. DuraMAT’s overarching goal is to discover, develop, de-risk, and enable the rapid commercialization of improved materials, designs, predictive tests, and models for PV modules that increase performance, extend lifetime, and enable new applications. We work in partnership with our 15-member Industry Advisory Board and the technical management team in DOE’s Solar Energy Technologies Office. This document describes DuraMAT activities in FY20.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Enhancing the sensitivity of the LUX-ZEPLIN (LZ) dark matter experiment to low energy signals

Two-phase xenon detectors, such as that at the core of the forthcoming LZ dark matter experiment, use photomultiplier tubes to sense the primary (S1) and secondary (S2) scintillation signals resulting from particle interactions in their liquid xenon target. This paper describes a simulation study exploring two techniques to lower the energy threshold of LZ to gain sensitivity to low-mass dark matter and astrophysical neutrinos, which will be applicable to other liquid xenon detectors. The energy threshold is determined by the number of detected S1 photons; typically, these must be recorded in three or more photomultiplier channels to avoid dark count coincidences that mimic real signals. To lower this threshold: a) we take advantage of the double photoelectron emission effect, whereby a single vacuum ultraviolet photon has a $\sim20\%$ probability of ejecting two photoelectrons from a photomultiplier tube photocathode; and b) we drop the requirement of an S1 signal altogether, and use only the ionization signal, which can be detected more efficiently. For both techniques we develop signal and background models for the nominal exposure, and explore accompanying systematic effects, including the dependence on the free electron lifetime in the liquid xenon. When incorporating double photoelectron signals, we predict a factor of $\sim 4$ sensitivity improvement to the dark matter-nucleon scattering cross-section at $2.5$ GeV/c$^2$, and a factor of $\sim1.6$ increase in the solar $^8$B neutrino detection rate. Dropping the S1 requirement may allow sensitivity gains of two orders of magnitude in both cases. Finally, we apply these techniques to even lower masses by taking into account the atomic Migdal effect; this could lower the dark matter particle mass threshold to $80$ MeV/c$^2$.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2021

Enhancing the sensitivity of the LUX-ZEPLIN (LZ) dark matter experiment to low energy signals

Two-phase xenon detectors, such as that at the core of the forthcoming LZ dark matter experiment, use photomultiplier tubes to sense the primary (S1) and secondary (S2) scintillation signals resulting from particle interactions in their liquid xenon target. This paper describes a simulation study exploring two techniques to lower the energy threshold of LZ to gain sensitivity to low-mass dark matter and astrophysical neutrinos, which will be applicable to other liquid xenon detectors. The energy threshold is determined by the number of detected S1 photons; typically, these must be recorded in three or more photomultiplier channels to avoid dark count coincidences that mimic real signals. To lower this threshold: a) we take advantage of the double photoelectron emission effect, whereby a single vacuum ultraviolet photon has a $\sim20\%$ probability of ejecting two photoelectrons from a photomultiplier tube photocathode; and b) we drop the requirement of an S1 signal altogether, and use only the ionization signal, which can be detected more efficiently. For both techniques we develop signal and background models for the nominal exposure, and explore accompanying systematic effects, including the dependence on the free electron lifetime in the liquid xenon. When incorporating double photoelectron signals, we predict a factor of $\sim 4$ sensitivity improvement to the dark matter-nucleon scattering cross-section at $2.5$ GeV/c$^2$, and a factor of $\sim1.6$ increase in the solar $^8$B neutrino detection rate. Dropping the S1 requirement may allow sensitivity gains of two orders of magnitude in both cases. Finally, we apply these techniques to even lower masses by taking into account the atomic Migdal effect; this could lower the dark matter particle mass threshold to $80$ MeV/c$^2$.

Akerib, DS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Optimization of Energy Storage System Economics and Controls by Incorporating Battery Degradation Costs in REopt

The use of stationary electrochemical energy storage systems utilizing lithium-ion batteries has increased rapidly as the production scale and price for lithium-ion batteries has decreased. These energy storage systems are crucial for maintaining grid resiliency, especially for grids operating with high penetration of renewable energy generation assets or for with a variety of distributed energy generation and storage systems. One challenging factor for the development of battery energy storage systems is estimating the proper sizing, in terms of both power and energy, that minimizes total costs over the lifetime of the systems; this calculation is difficult in simple cases, where a battery is costed independently, but is extremely challenging when building loads and electrical generation by photovoltaic resources are also considered. REopt is a techoeconomic optimization tool developed by NREL to address these challenges. Previously, battery degradation has been priced by simply assuming a 10-year replacement schedule for battery systems. However, this does not account for varying degradation trends observed across real-world batteries, or allow for batteries to be operated in a degradation-aware manner that optimizes battery dispatch based on operating costs. This work incorporates a battery life model into REopt. This battery life model is simple, so that it may be solvable within the constrains of a mixed-integer linear optimization problem, but is fit to accelerated aging data recorded in the lab. To achieve the best possible accuracy for lifetime estimates given these constraints, parameters for the battery life model in REopt are estimated by fitting 20-year simulations of battery life after identifying state-space battery degradation model from accelerated aging data. Comparisons of battery life predicted in REopt and from the state-space battery degradation model to ensure validity of lifetime estimates made by REopt. Battery life and cost is optimized by controlling three decision to minimize system life cost: battery sizing, daily state-of-charge, and daily energy-throughput. The cost of battery degradation as a function of these control variables is then estimated assuming two possible maintenance strategies: replacement, where the entire battery system is replaced if cell reach an end-of-life capacity threshold; and augmentation, which establishes a fund to pay for continual purchase of new batteries to maintain the initial energy capacity of the system. These two strategies offer conservative (for replacement) and optimistic (for augmentation) bounds for total system cost. The degradation cost incurred by these strategies is then used to control battery dispatch decisions, operating the battery in a degradation-aware manner that maximizes battery lifetime while also providing energy when favorable. Because the mixed-integer linear program has perfect foresight of future energy needs, batteries with degradation costs are always operated using 'just-in-time' charging, which is unrealistic, as no energy is left in the storage system to perform other energy services or to serve as emergency back-up power. To combat this, an inequality constraint on the average annual state-of-charge is imposed, and the sensitivity of system cost to average stored energy, e.g., the cost of system resiliency, can be quantified. Analysis of results has several conclusions, for instance, oversizing of battery storage systems is not a cost burden when battery storage is an optimal solution, as any additional battery capacity can simply be utilized to avoid costs of purchasing energy from a utility.

battery↗
DOE OSTI2025

Defect modeling in semiconductors: the role of first principles simulations and machine learning

Abstract Point defects in semiconductors dictate their electronic and optical properties. Vacancies, interstitials, substitutional defects, and defect complexes can form in the semiconductor lattice and significantly impact its performance in applications such as solar absorption, light emission, electronics, and catalysis. Understanding the nature and energetics of point defects is essential for the design and optimization of next-generation semiconductor technologies. Here, we provide a comprehensive overview of the current state of research on point defects in semiconductors, focusing on the application of density functional theory (DFT) and machine learning (ML) in accelerating the prediction and understanding of defect properties. DFT has been instrumental in accurately calculating defect formation energies, charge transition levels, and other defect-related properties such as carrier recombination rates and lifetimes, and ion migration barriers. ML techniques, particularly neural networks, have emerged as powerful tools for enabling rapid prediction of defect properties at DFT-accuracy in order to overcome the expense of using large supercells and advanced functionals. We begin this article with a discussion of different types of point defects and complexes, their impact on semiconductor properties, and the experimental and DFT approaches typically used for their characterization. Through multiple case studies, we explore how DFT has been successfully applied to understand defect behavior across a variety of semiconductors, and how ML approaches integrated with DFT can efficiently predict defect properties and facilitate the discovery of new materials with tailored defect behavior. Overall, the advent of ‘DFT+ML’ promises to drive advancements in semiconductor technology, catalysis, and renewable energy applications, paving the way for the development of high-performance semiconductors which are defect-tolerant or have desirable dopability.

Rahman, Md Habibur (ORCID:000000027705984X)↗
DOE OSTI2020

Hydrogen Transport in a Model 9979 Shipping Package with Inner Convenience Cans

Radiolytic hydrogen production and accumulation inside containment packages is a concern at any facility responsible for their packaging, storage, transportation, and/or disposal. When hydrogen gas accumulates to concentrations above the Lower Flammability Limit (LFL) which is 4% or 40,000 ppm in air, the possibility of a deflagration or explosion increases. This concern persists over the course of the package lifetime which is unlimited when disposed of by burial or in permanent repositories. Here, we report on a numerical model used to predict the concentration of hydrogen within each layer of a Model 9979 package containing a convenience can assembly. Simulations show the hydrogen concentration to always be highest in the inner convenience can containing the radioactive source. When the radioactive source is within the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) Packaging Limits, the hydrogen concentration is shown to remain well below the LFL at all times including packaging, storage, transportation, and disposal. A hydrogen transport model is presented for a Model 9979 package system containing a nested arrangement of convenience cans, which are tin oxide coated steel cans of various sizes with a slip-lid assembly. The inner convenience can contains the radioactive source material along with an unknown quantity of incidental water acquired from humid air or processing. While visible organic materials such as paper and plastics were purposely excluded from the inner can, it is not possible to claim the wastes are entirely organic free. The inner convenience can is tape sealed and placed into a plastic bag which is horsetail closed (i.e., twisted and taped). The bagged can is placed into an outer convenience can that is also tape sealed. The can assembly is then placed into the 30 gallon drum and subsequently placed inside the 55 gallon drum in the 9979 package. Here we assume hydrogen gas is produced in the inner convenience can from alpha radiolysis of water at a rate dependent on the quantity of uranium isotopes and water present. The hydrogen transport model was used to calculate hydrogen accumulations within the package’s five layers at different times and conditions. These simulations serve two purposes; (i) to build confidence in the model by comparing predicted values to measured values, and (ii) to check the steady state hydrogen concentrations that are approached at long times in the package’s lifetime. Model simulations were compared to gas samples taken from the 30 gallon drum after storage at LANL’s Chemistry and Metallurgy Research (CMR) building for around 500 days. Hydrogen concentration calculations over much longer periods (i.e., more than 270 years) included extreme storage durations, transportation at extreme cold temperatures, and disposal of packages assuming different average temperatures.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2022

Got plenty of nothing: cosmic voids as a probe of particle dark matter

The search for a particle dark matter signal in terms of radiation produced by dark matter annihilation or decay has to cope with the extreme faintness of the predicted signal and the presence of masking astrophysical backgrounds. It has been shown that using the correlated information between the dark matter distribution in the Universe with the fluctuations of the cosmic radiation fields has the potential to allow setting apart a pure dark matter signal from astrophysical emissions, since spatial fluctuations in the radiation field due to astrophysical sources and dark matter emission have different features. The cross-correlation technique has been proposed and adopted for dark matter studies by looking at dark matter halos (overdensities). Here in this paper we extend the technique by focusing on the information on dark matter distribution offered by cosmic voids, and by looking specifically at the gamma-ray dark matter emission: we show that, while being underdense and therefore producing a reduced emission as compared to halos, nevertheless in voids the relative size of the cross-correlation signal due to decaying dark matter vs. astrophysical sources is significantly more favourable, producing signal-to-background ratios S/B (even significantly) larger than 1 for decay lifetimes up to 2 × 10 30 s. This is at variance with the case of halos, where S/B is typically (even much) smaller than 1. We show that forthcoming galaxy surveys such as Euclid combined with future generation gamma-ray detectors with improved specifications have the ability to provide a hint of such a signal with a predicted significance up to 5.7σ for galaxies and 1.6σ for the cosmic shear. The bound on the dark matter lifetime attainable exploiting voids is predicted to improve on current bounds in a mass range for the WIMP of 25 ÷ 900 GeV.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

LLNL 5-2428: Fracture Permeability and Seismic Slip Behavior

Our goal is to develop, apply and validate a holistic thermal, hydrologic, mechanical, and chemical (THMC) workflow that also includes evaluation of induced seismic slip in EGS reservoirs. We will integrate experimental and modelling approaches to reduce parameteruncertainty and better predict and mitigate seismic hazard at Utah FORGE and future EGS sites.We propose a novel approach that incorporates 3D physics-based Earthquake simulations in THMC models, herein referred to as “THMC+E” models. This capability will enable improvedengineering decisions at Utah FORGE and move EGS operations toward repeatable, robust, economically viable, and socially accepted development. Utah FORGE management and future EGS operators may employ results of THMC+E models for decision making purposes throughout the lifetime of the field operation. For example, before production well installation, our THMC+E models will predict circulation scenarios and related seismic hazard for a suite ofpossible well locations and flow rates, thus enabling evaluation of optimal production well placement. Such efforts will be conducted throughout the lifetime of the project, whereby additional laboratory experiments will constrain key model parameters and machine learning (ML) will reduce the size of the parameter space and the associated uncertainty. THMC+E simulations will enable exploration various circumstances that may hinder EGS success and develop mitigation strategies.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Machine-Learning Assisted Identification of Accurate Battery Lifetime Models with Uncertainty

Reduced-order battery lifetime models, which consist of algebraic expressions for various aging modes, are widely utilized for extrapolating degradation trends from accelerated aging tests to real-world aging scenarios. Identifying models with high accuracy and low uncertainty is crucial for ensuring that model extrapolations are believable, however, it is difficult to compose expressions that accurately predict multivariate data trends; a review of cycling degradation models from literature reveals a wide variety of functional relationships. Here, a machine-learning assisted model identification method is utilized to fit degradation in a stand-out LFP-Gr aging data set, with uncertainty quantified by bootstrap resampling. The model identified in this work results in approximately half the mean absolute error of a human expert model. Models are validated by converting to a state-equation form and comparing predictions against cells aging under varying loads. Parameter uncertainty is carried forward into an energy storage system simulation to estimate the impact of aging model uncertainty on system lifetime. The new model identification method used here reduces life-prediction uncertainty by more than a factor of three (86% ± 5% relative capacity at 10 years for human-expert model, 88.5% ± 1.5% for machine-learning assisted model), empowering more confident estimates of energy storage system lifetime.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Study of the GeV to TeV morphology of the γ Cygni SNR (G 78.2+2.1) with MAGIC and Fermi-LAT

Context: Diffusive shock acceleration (DSA) is the most promising mechanism that accelerates Galactic cosmic rays (CRs) in the shocks of supernova remnants (SNRs). It is based on particles scattering caused by turbulence ahead and behind the shock. The turbulence upstream is supposedly generated by the CRs, but this process is not well understood. The dominant mechanism may depend on the evolutionary state of the shock and can be studied via the CRs escaping upstream into the interstellar medium (ISM). Aims: Previous observations of the γ Cygni SNR showed a difference in morphology between GeV and TeV energies. Since this SNR has the right age and is at the evolutionary stage for a significant fraction of CRs to escape, our aim is to understand γ-ray emission in the vicinity of the γ Cygni SNR. Methods: We observed the region of the γ Cygni SNR with the MAGIC Imaging Atmospheric Cherenkov telescopes between 2015 May and 2017 September recording 87 h of good-quality data. Additionally, we analysed Fermi-LAT data to study the energy dependence of the morphology as well as the energy spectrum in the GeV to TeV range. The energy spectra and morphology were compared against theoretical predictions, which include a detailed derivation of the CR escape process and their γ-ray generation. Results: The MAGIC and Fermi-LAT data allowed us to identify three emission regions that can be associated with the SNR and that dominate at different energies. Our hadronic emission model accounts well for the morphology and energy spectrum of all source components. It constrains the time-dependence of the maximum energy of the CRs at the shock, the time-dependence of the level of turbulence, and the diffusion coefficient immediately outside the SNR shock. Further, while in agreement with the standard picture of DSA, the time-dependence of the maximum energy was found to be steeper than predicted, and the level of turbulence was found to change over the lifetime of the SNR.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Virtual Inspection of Advanced Manufacturing via Process-Scale Digital Twins (Abbreviated Report)

Inspection and certification comprise the most significant bottlenecks in advanced manufacturing for NNSA applications, often requiring far more time and resources than the fabrication of the parts themselves. Traditional methods, such as manual review and X-ray computed tomography, are not only slow and costly, but also struggle to provide a clear connection between manufacturing instructions and the final performance of critical components. This gap limits both the agility and assurance needed to support the modernization and safety of the United States nuclear stockpile. In response, our Strategic Initiative established a digital twin framework that integrates realtime process monitoring, automated data analysis, and immersive virtual reality collaboration into a unified inspection pipeline. By leveraging data from sensors, machine instructions, and imaging, we created high-fidelity virtual models of manufactured parts that could be rapidly analyzed and certified. This approach was first demonstrated with Direct Ink Write, and then extended to other manufacturing settings, including conventional (or “subtractive”) manufacturing and to predict the end of life performance of parts per the aging and lifetimes programs. The result is a transformational capability: inspection times have been reduced by a factor of 120,000 without loss of accuracy and while simultaneously improving traceability and confidence in part quality. This framework not only streamlines certification for critical applications, but also positions the national security enterprise to respond more flexibly to emerging challenges, supporting agile manufacturing and digital engineering practices across a broad range of mission-relevant domains.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Durable Module Materials Consortium (DuraMAT) FY 2021 Annual Report: New Results and a Renewed Consortium

The Durable Module Materials Consortium (DuraMAT) is a multi-lab consortium led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, with Sandia National Laboratories, SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory, and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory as core research labs. DuraMAT's overarching goal is to discover, develop, de-risk, and enable the rapid commercialization of improved materials, designs, predictive tests, and models for photovoltaic (PV) modules that increase performance, extend lifetime, and enable new applications. Technical results are highlighted throughout this report, and the new projects awarded for FY 2022 address many of the challenges to making 50-year, high-energy-yield modules that were identified in these working groups.

backsheet↗
DOE OSTI2022

Pit Stability Predictions of Additively Manufactured SS316 Surfaces Using Finite Element Analysis

Stainless steels are susceptible to localized forms of corrosion attack, such as pitting. The size and lifetime of a nucleated pit can vary, depending on a critical potential or current density criterion, which determines if the pit repassivates or continues growing. This work uses finite element method (FEM) modeling to compare the critical pit radii predicted by thermodynamic and kinetic repassivation criteria. Experimental electrochemical boundary conditions are used to capture the active pit kinetics. Geometric and environmental parameters, such as the pit shape and size (analogous to additively manufactured lack-of-fusion pores), solution concentration, and water layer thickness were considered to assess their impact on the pit repassivation criterion. The critical pit radius (the transition point from stable growth to repassivation) predicted for a hemispherical pit was larger when using the repassivation potential (E rp ) criteria, as opposed to the current density criteria (pit stability product). Including both the pit stability product and E rp into its calculations, the analytical maximum pit model predicted a critical radius two times more conservative than the FEA approach, under the conditions studied herein. The complex pits representing lack-of-fusion pores were shown to have minimal impact on the critical radius in atmospheric conditions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

First Demonstration of a Liquid Argon Time Projection Chamber Based Search for Intranuclear Neutron-Antineutron Transitions and Annihilation in $^{40}$Ar using the MicroBooNE Detector

We present a novel methodology to search for intranuclear neutron-antineutron transition ($n\rightarrow\bar{n}$) followed by $\bar{n}$-nucleon annihilation within an $^{40}$Ar nucleus, using the MicroBooNE liquid argon time projection chamber (LArTPC) detector. A discovery of $n\rightarrow\bar{n}$ transition or a new best limit on the lifetime of this process would either constitute physics beyond the Standard Model or greatly constrain theories of baryogenesis, respectively. The approach presented in this paper makes use of deep learning methods to select $n\rightarrow\bar{n}$ events based on their unique features and differentiate them from cosmogenic backgrounds. The achieved signal and background efficiencies are (70.22$\pm$6.04)\% and (0.0020$\pm$0.0003)\%, respectively. A demonstration of a search is performed with a data set corresponding to an exposure of $3.32 \times10^{26}\,$neutron-years, and where the background rate is constrained through direct measurement, assuming the presence of a negligible signal. With this approach, no excess of events over the background prediction is observed, setting a demonstrative lower bound on the $n\rightarrow\bar{n}$ lifetime in $^{40}$Ar of $\tau_{\textrm{m}} \gtrsim 1.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Band gap renormalization, carrier mobilities, and the electron-phonon self-energy in crystalline naphthalene

Organic molecular crystals are expected to feature appreciable electron-phonon interactions that influence their electronic properties at zero and finite temperature. Here, we report first-principles calculations and an analysis of the electron-phonon self-energy in naphthalene crystals. We compute the zero-point renormalization and temperature dependence of the fundamental band gap, and the resulting scattering lifetimes of electronic states near the valence- and conduction-band edges employing density functional theory. Further, our calculated phonon renormalization of the GW-corrected quasiparticle band structure predicts a fundamental band gap of 5 eV for naphthalene at room temperature, in good agreement with experiments. From our calculated phonon-induced electron lifetimes, we obtain the temperature-dependent mobilities of electrons and holes in good agreement with experimental measurements at room temperature. Finally, we show that an approximate energy self-consistent computational scheme for the electron-phonon self-energy leads to the prediction of strong satellite bands in the electronic band structure. We find that a single calculation of the self-energy can reproduce the self-consistent results of the band gap renormalization and electrical mobilities for naphthalene, provided that the on-the-mass-shell approximation is used, i.e., if the self-energy is evaluated at the bare eigenvalues.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2024

Global net climate effects of anthropogenic reactive nitrogen

Anthropogenic activities have substantially enhanced the loadings of reactive nitrogen (Nr) in the Earth system since pre-industrial times, contributing to widespread eutrophication and air pollution. Increased Nr can also influence global climate through a variety of effects on atmospheric and land processes but the cumulative net climate effect is yet to be unravelled. Here we show that anthropogenic Nr causes a net negative direct radiative forcing of –0.34 [–0.20, –0.50] W m –2 in the year 2019 relative to the year 1850. This net cooling effect is the result of increased aerosol loading, reduced methane lifetime and increased terrestrial carbon sequestration associated with increases in anthropogenic Nr, which are not offset by the warming effects of enhanced atmospheric nitrous oxide and ozone. Future predictions using three representative scenarios show that this cooling effect may be weakened primarily as a result of reduced aerosol loading and increased lifetime of methane, whereas in particular N 2 O-induced warming will probably continue to increase under all scenarios. Our results indicate that future reductions in anthropogenic Nr to achieve environmental protection goals need to be accompanied by enhanced efforts to reduce anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions to achieve climate change mitigation in line with the Paris Agreement.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Wall heating by subcritical energetic electrons generated by the runaway electron avalanche source *

Abstract Subcritical energetic electrons (SEEs) produced by the runaway electron (RE) avalanche source at energies below the runaway threshold are found to be the primary contributor to surface heating of plasma-facing components (PFCs) during final loss events. This finding is supported by theoretical analysis, computational modeling with the Kinetic Orbit Runaway electrons Code (KORC), and qualitative agreement with DIII-D experimental observations. The avalanche source generates significantly more secondary electrons below the runaway threshold, which thermalize rapidly when well-confined. However, during a final loss event, the RE beam impacts the first wall, and SEEs are deconfined before they can thermalize. Additionally, because the energy deposition length decreases faster than energy, the deposited energy density, and thus the maximum PFC surface temperature change, is larger for SEEs than REs. KORC simulations employ an analytic first wall to model particle deconfinement onto a non-axisymmetric wall composed of individual tiles. PFC surface heating is calculated using a 1D model extended to include an energy-dependent deposition length scale. Simulations of DIII-D qualitatively agree with infrared (IR) imaging only when SEEs from the avalanche source are included. These results demonstrate that SEEs are the dominant contributor to PFC surface heating and indicate that the avalanche source plays a critical role in the PFC damage caused during final loss events. The prominence of SEEs also has important implications for interpreting IR imaging, one of the primary diagnostics for RE-wall interaction diagnosis, despite REs dominating the energy and current density. This result improves predictions of wall damage due to post-disruption REs to estimate material lifetime and design RE mitigation systems for ITER and future reactors.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗