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239 records · Page 14

Real Time On-line Space Research Laboratory Environment Monitoring with Off-line Trend and Prediction Analysis

One of the responsibilities of the NASA Glenn Principal Investigator Microgravity Services is to support NASA sponsored investigators in the area of reduced-gravity acceleration data analysis, interpretation and the monitoring of the reduced-gravity environment on-board various carriers. With the International Space Station currently operational, a significant amount of acceleration data is being down-linked and processed on ground for both the space station onboard environment characterization (and verification) and scientific experiments. Therefore, to help principal investigator teams monitor the acceleration level on-board the International Space Station to avoid undesirable impact on their experiment, when possible, the NASA Glenn Principal Investigator Microgravity Services developed an artificial intelligence monitoring system, which detects in near real time any change in the environment susceptible to affect onboard experiments. The main objective of the monitoring system is to help research teams identify the vibratory disturbances that are active at any instant of time onboard the International Space Station that might impact the environment in which their experiment is being conducted. The monitoring system allows any space research scientist, at any location and at any time, to see the current acceleration level on-board the Space Station via the World Wide Web. From the NASA Glenn s Exploration Systems Division web site, research scientists can see in near real time the active disturbances, such as pumps, fans, compressor, crew exercise, re-boost, extra-vehicular activity, etc., and decide whether or not to continue operating or stopping (or making note of such activity for later correlation with science results) their experiments based on the g-level associated with that specific event. A dynamic graphical display accessible via the World Wide Web shows the status of all the vibratory disturbance activities with their degree of confidence as well as their g-level contribution to the environment. The system can detect both known and unknown vibratory disturbance activities. It can also perform trend analysis and prediction by analyzing past data over many Increments of the space station for selected disturbance activities. This feature can be used to monitor the health of onboard mechanical systems to detect and prevent potential system failure as well as for use by research scientists during their science results analysis. Examples of both real time on-line vibratory disturbance detection and off-line trend analysis are presented in this paper. Several soft computing techniques such as Kohonen s Self-Organizing Feature Map, Learning Vector Quantization, Back-Propagation Neural Networks, and Fuzzy Logic were used to design the system.

Jules, Kenol↗

Strain Measurement Using FBG on COPV in Stress Rupture Test

White Sands Test Facility (WSTF) was requested to perform ambient temperature hydrostatic pressurization testing of a Space Transportation System (STS) 40-in. Kevlar Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessel (COPV). The 40-in. vessel was of the same design and approximate age as the STS Main Propulsion System (MPS) and Orbiter Maneuvering System (OMS) vessels. The NASA Engineering Safety Center (NESC) assembled a team of experts and conducted an assessment that involved a review of national Kevlar COPY data. During the review, the STS COPVs were found to be beyond their original certification of ten years. The team observed that the likelihood of STS COPV Stress rupture, a catastrophic burst before leak failure mode, was greater than previously believed. Consequently, a detailed assessment of remaining stress rupture life became necessary. Prior to STS-114, a certification deviation was written for two flights of OV-103 (Discovery) and OV-104 (Atlantis) per rationale that was based on an extensive review of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories, COPV data, and revisions to the STS COPV stress levels. In order to obtain flight rationale to extend the certification deviation through the end of the Program, the Orbiter Project Office has directed an interagency COPV team to conduct further testing and analysis to investigate conservatism in the stress rupture model and evaluate material age degradation. Additional analysis of stress rupture life requires understanding the fiber stresses including stress that occurs due to thru-wall composite compression in COPV components. Data must be obtained at both zero gauge pressure (pre-stress) and at the component operating pressure so that this phenomenon can be properly evaluated. The zero gauge pressure stresses are predominantly a result of the autofrettage process used during vessel manufacture. Determining these pre-stresses and the constitutive behavior of the overwrap at pressure will provide necessary information to better predict the remaining life of the STS COPVs. The primary test objective is obtaining data to verify the hypothesis of a radially oriented thru-thickness stress-riser in the COPV composite whose magnitude is a function of the applied pressure and the load history. The anticipated load dependent response follows from the constitutive behavior of the composite overwrap so data to quantify its nonlinear and time dependent response will be sought. The objective of the Fiber Braggs Gratings (FBGs) were to advance the state-of-the-art by developing techniques using FBG sensors that are capable of assessing stress-rupture degradation in Kevlar COPVs in a health monitoring mode (1). Moreover, they sought to answer questions of how embedded sensors affect overall integrity of the structure. And lastly, they sought to provide an important link in the overall stress rupture study that will help close the loop on the COPV fabrication process. NDE inspection methods will be used from start to finish and FBG will be an integral link within the overall chain.

Banks, Curtis↗

Drought Prediction for Socio-Cultural Stability Project

The primary objective of this project is to answer the question: "Can existing, linked infrastructures be used to predict the onset of drought months in advance?" Based on our work, the answer to this question is "yes" with the qualifiers that skill depends on both lead-time and location, and especially with the associated teleconnections (e.g., ENSO, Indian Ocean Dipole) active in a given region season. As part of this work, we successfully developed a prototype drought early warning system based on existing/mature NASA Earth science components including the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System Version 5 (GEOS-5) forecasting model, the Land Information System (LIS) land data assimilation software framework, the Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM), remotely sensed terrestrial water storage from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and remotely sensed soil moisture products from the Aqua/Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer - EOS (AMSR-E). We focused on a single drought year - 2011 - during which major agricultural droughts occurred with devastating impacts in the Texas-Mexico region of North America (TEXMEX) and the Horn of Africa (HOA). Our results demonstrate that GEOS-5 precipitation forecasts show skill globally at 1-month lead, and can show up to 3 months skill regionally in the TEXMEX and HOA areas. Our results also demonstrate that the CLSM soil moisture percentiles are a goof indicator of drought, as compared to the North American Drought Monitor of TEXMEX and a combination of Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) data and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS)'s Normalizing Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) anomalies over HOA. The data assimilation experiments produced mixed results. GRACE terrestrial water storage (TWS) assimilation was found to significantly improve soil moisture and evapotransportation, as well as drought monitoring via soil moisture percentiles, while AMSR-E soil moisture assimilation produced marginal benefits. We carried out 1-3 month lead-time forecast experiments using GEOS-5 forecasts as input to LIS/CLSM. Based on these forecast experiments, we find that the expected skill in GEOS-5 forecasts from 1-3 months is present in the soil moisture percentiles used to indicate drought. In the case of the HOA drought, the failure of the long rains in April appears in the February 1, March 1 and April 1 initialized forecasts, suggesting that for this case, drought forecasting would have provided some advance warning about the drought conditions observed in 2011. Three key recommendations for follow-up work include: (1) carry out a comprehensive analysis of droughts observed over the entire period of record for GEOS-5 forecasts; (2) continue to analyze the GEOS-5 forecasts in HOA stratifying by anomalies in long and short rains; and (3) continue to include GRACE TWS, Soil Moisture/Ocean Salinity (SMOS) and the upcoming NASA Soil Moisture Active/Passive (SMAP) soil moisture products in a routine activity building on this prototype to further quantify the benefits for drought assessment and prediction.

Peters-Lidard, Christa↗

Mid-Infrared Reflectance Imaging of Thermal-Barrier Coatings

An apparatus for mid-infrared reflectance imaging has been developed as means of inspecting for subsurface damage in thermal-barrier coatings (TBCs). The apparatus is designed, more specifically, for imaging the progression of buried delamination cracks in plasma-sprayed yttria-stabilized zirconia coatings on turbine-engine components. Progression of TBC delamination occurs by the formation of buried cracks that grow and then link together to produce eventual TBC spallation. The mid-infrared reflectance imaging system described here makes it possible to see delamination progression that is invisible to the unaided eye, and therefore give sufficiently advanced warning before delamination progression adversely affects engine performance and safety. The apparatus (see figure) includes a commercial mid-infrared camera that contains a liquid-nitrogen-cooled focal plane indium antimonide photodetector array, and imaging is restricted by a narrow bandpass centered at wavelength of 4 microns. This narrow wavelength range centered at 4 microns was chosen because (1) it enables avoidance of interfering absorptions by atmospheric OH and CO2 at 3 and 4.25 microns, respectively; and (2) the coating material exhibits maximum transparency in this wavelength range. Delamination contrast is produced in the midinfrared reflectance images because the introduction of cracks into the TBC creates an internal TBC/air-gap interface with a high diffuse reflectivity of 0.81, resulting in substantially higher reflectance of mid-infrared radiation in regions that contain buried delamination cracks. The camera is positioned a short distance (.12 cm) from the specimen. The mid-infrared illumination is generated by a 50-watt silicon carbide source positioned to the side of the mid-infrared camera, and the illumination is collimated and reflected onto the specimen by a 6.35-cm-diameter off-axis paraboloidal mirror. Because the collected images are of a steady-state reflected intensity (in contrast to the transient thermal response observed in infrared thermography), collection times can be lengthened to whatever extent needed to achieve desired signal-to-noise ratios. Each image is digitized, and the resulting data are processed in several steps to obtain a true mid-infrared reflectance image. The raw image includes thermal radiation emitted by the specimen in addition to the desired reflected radiation. The thermal-radiation contribution is eliminated by subtracting the image obtained with the illumination off from the image obtained with the illumination on. A flat-field correction is then made to remove the effects of non-uniformities in the illumination level and pixel-to-pixel variations in sensitivity. This correction is performed by normalizing to an image of a standard object that has a known reflectance at a wavelength of 4 microns. After correction, each pixel value is proportional to the reflectance (at a wavelength of 4-microns) at the corresponding location on the specimen. Mid-infrared reflectance imaging of specimens that were thermally cyc led for different numbers of cycles was performed and demonstrated t hat mid-infrared reflectance imaging was able to monitor the gradual delamination progression that occurs with continued thermal cycling . Reproducible values were obtained for the reflectance associated w ith an attached and fully delaminated TBC, so that intermediate refle ctance values could be interpreted to successfully predict the numbe r of thermal cycles to failure.

Edlridge, Jeffrey I.↗

The Effect of Agricultural Growing Season Change on Market Prices in Africa

Local agricultural production is a key element of food security in many agricultural countries in Africa. Climate change and variability is likely to adversely affect these countries, particularly as they affect the ability of smallholder farmers to raise enough food to feed themselves. Seasonality influences farmers' decisions about when to sow and harvest, and ultimately the success or failure of their crops. At a 2009 conference in the United Kingdom hosted by the Institute of Development Studies, Jennings and Magrath (2009) described farmer reports from East Asia, South Asia, Southern Africa, East Africa and Latin America. Farmers indicate significant changes in the timing of rainy seasons and the pattern of rains within seasons, including: More erratic rainfall, coming at unexpected times in and out of season; Extreme storms and unusually intense rainfall are punctuated by longer dry spells within the rainy season; Increasing uncertainty as to the start of rainy seasons in many areas; Short or transitional second rainy seasons are becoming stronger than normal or are disappearing altogether. These farmer perceptions of change are striking in that they are geographically widespread and are remarkably consistent across diverse regions (Jennings and Magrath, 2009). The impact of these changes on farmers with small plots and few resources is large. Farming is becoming riskier because of heat stress, lack of water, pests and diseases that interact with ongoing pressures on natural resources. Lack of predictability in the start and length of the growing season affects the ability of farmers to invest in appropriate fertilizer levels or improved, high yielding varieties. These changes occur at the same time as the demand for food is rising and is projected to continue to rise for the next fifty years (IAASTD, 2008). Long-term data records derived from satellite remote sensing can be used to verify these reports, providing necessary analysis and documentation required to plan effective adaptation strategies. Remote sensing data can also provide some understanding of the spatial extent of these changes and whether they are likely to continue. Given the agricultural nature of most economies on the African continent, agricultural production continues to be a critical determinant of both food security and economic growth (Funk and Brown, 2009). Crop phenological parameters, such as the start and end of the growing season, the total length of the growing season, and the rate of greening and senescence are important for planning crop management, crop diversification, and intensification. The World Food Summit of 1996 defined food security as: "when all people at all times have access to sufficient, safe, nutritious food to maintain a healthy and active life". Food security roughly depends on three factors: 1) availability of food; 2) access to food and 3) appropriate use of food, as well as adequate water and sanitation. The first factor is dependent on growing conditions and weather and climate. In a previous paper we have investigated this factor by evaluating the effect of large scale climate oscillation on land surface phenology (Brown et al., 2010). We found that all areas in Africa are significantly affected by at least one type of large scale climate oscillations and concluded that these somewhat predictable oscillations could perhaps be used to forecast agricultural production. In addition, we have evaluated changes in agricultural land surface phenology over time (Brown et al., 2012). We found that land surface phenology models, which link large-scale vegetation indices with accumulated humidity, could successfully predict agricultural productivity in several countries around the world. In this chapter we are interested in the effect of variability in peak timing of the growing season, or phenology, on the second factor of food security, food access. In this chapter we want to determine if there is a link between market prices and land surface phenology and to determine which markets are vulnerable to land surface phenology changes and variability and which market prices are not correlated.

Prices↗