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At least 253 records · Page 14

The Diffuse EUV and X-Ray Background as a Probe of the Interstellar Medium

We have used the Deep Survey telescope of the Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer to investigate shadows in the diffuse EUV/soft X-ray background that are cast by clouds in the interstellar medium. We confirm the existence of a shadow previously reported and provide evidence for two new shadows. We used IRAS data to identify the clouds producing these shadows and to determine their optical depth to EUV radiation. The EUV-absorbing clouds are optically thick in the EUV, and all EUV emission detected in the direction of these shadows must be produced from material in front of the clouds. We obtained new optical data to determine the distance to these clouds. We use a new differential cloud technique to obtain the pressure of the interstellar medium. These results do not depend on any zero-level calibration of the data. Our results provide evidence that the pressure of the hot interstellar gas is the same in three different directions in the local interstellar medium and is at least 8 times higher than that derived for the Local Cloud surrounding our Sun. This provides new evidence for large thermal pressure imbalances in the local ISM and directly contradicts the basic assumption of thermal pressure equilibrium used in almost all present models of the interstellar medium.

Lieu, Richard↗

Cooling of the Interstellar Medium

This talk will review the various heating and cooling processes in the interstellar medium. The most important heating processes include the photoelectric effect on dust grains and PAH molecules. Cooling of the gas in the interstellar medium is dominated by emission in the far infrared fine-structure lines of OI, CII, SiII, and CI, and the rotational transitions of CO. Which of these heating and cooling processes dominates in a given region depends on its physical and especially chemical conditions, which in turn depend themselves on the interstellar UV radiation field. As a result of the interplay of these processes, the interstellar medium is organized in various structures with distinctly different physical conditions (i.e., temperature, density, and degree of ionization). The dominant cooling lines of the neutral interstellar medium have been studied using the Kuiper Airborne Observatory, balloon-borne instruments, and recently space-based missions (IRTS, ISO). These observations have concentrated on dense regions illuminated by strong UV fields from nearby stars, so-called PhotoDissociation Regions (PDRs). These observations allow us to study in detail the interaction of UV photons observations allow us to study in detail the interaction of UV photons and the interstellar gas and dust. Detailed theoretical models have been developed for PDRs. These will be reviewed and compared to the observations. Recent space based missions have measured the dominant cooling line of the galaxy, the [CII] 158 micron line. These observations and their implications will be reviewed.

Tielens, A. G. G. M.↗

Medium modified two-body scattering amplitude from proton-nucleus total cross-sections

Recently (R.K. Tripathi, J.W. Wilson, F.A. Cucinotta, Nucl. Instr. and Meth. B 145 (1998) 277; R.K. Tripathi, F.A. Cucinotta, J.W. Wilson, NASA-TP-1998-208438), we have extracted nucleon-nucleon (N-N) cross-sections in the medium directly from experiment. The in-medium N-N cross-sections form the basic ingredients of several heavy-ion scattering approaches including the coupled-channel approach developed at the NASA Langley Research Center. Here, we investigate the ratio of real to imaginary part of the two-body scattering amplitude in the medium. These ratios are used in combination with the in-medium N-N cross-sections to calculate total proton-nucleus cross-sections. The agreement is excellent with the available experimental data. These cross-sections are needed for the radiation risk assessment of space missions. c2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

NASA Discipline Radiation Health↗

The Advanced Energetic Pair Telescope (AdEPT}: A Future Medium-Energy Gamma-Ray Balloon (and Explorer?) Mission

Gamma-ray astrophysics probes the highest energy, exotic phenomena in astrophysics. In the medium-energy regime, 0.1-200 MeV, many astrophysical objects exhibit unique and transitory behavior such as the transition from electron dominated to hadron dominated processes, spectral breaks, bursts, and flares. Medium-energy gamma-ray imaging however, continues to be a major challenge particularly because of high background, low effective area, and low source intensities. The sensitivity and angular resolution required to address these challenges requires a leap in technology. The Advance Energetic Pair Telescope (AdEPT) being developed at GSFC is designed to image gamma rays above 5 MeV via pair production with angular resolution of 1-10 deg. In addition AdEPT will, for the first time, provide high polarization sensitivity in this energy range. This performance is achieved by reducing the effective area in favor of enhanced angular resolution through the use of a low-density gaseous conversion medium. AdEPT is based on the Three-Dimensional Track Imager (3-DTI) technology that combines a large volume Negative Ion Time Projection Chamber (NITPC) with 2-D Micro-Well Detector (MWD) readout. I will review the major science topics addressable with medium-energy gamma-rays and discuss the current status of the AdEPT technology, a proposed balloon instrument, and the design of a future satellite mission.

Hunter, Stanley D.↗

Direct Demonstration of the Concept of Unrestricted Effective-Medium Approximation

The modified unrestricted effective-medium refractive index is defined as one that yields accurate values of a representative set of far-field scattering characteristics (including the scattering matrix) for an object made of randomly heterogeneous materials. We validate the concept of the modified unrestricted effective-medium refractive index by comparing numerically exact superposition T-matrix results for a spherical host randomly filled with a large number of identical small inclusions and Lorenz-Mie results for a homogeneous spherical counterpart. A remarkable quantitative agreement between the superposition T-matrix and Lorenz-Mie scattering matrices over the entire range of scattering angles demonstrates unequivocally that the modified unrestricted effective-medium refractive index is a sound (albeit still phenomenological) concept provided that the size parameter of the inclusions is sufficiently small and their number is sufficiently large. Furthermore, it appears that in cases when the concept of the modified unrestricted effective-medium refractive index works, its actual value is close to that predicted by the Maxwell-Garnett mixing rule.

Scattering↗

Science Requirements and Conceptual Design for a Polarized Medium Energy Electron-Ion Collider at Jlab

Researchers have envisioned an electron-ion collider with ion species up to heavy ions, high polarization of electrons and light ions, and a well-matched center-of-mass energy range as an ideal gluon microscope to explore new frontiers of nuclear science. In its most recent Long Range Plan, the Nuclear Science Advisory Committee (NSAC) of the US Department of Energy and the National Science Foundation endorsed such a collider in the form of a 'half-recommendation.' As a response to this science need, Jefferson Lab and its user community have been engaged in feasibility studies of a medium energy polarized electron-ion collider (MEIC), cost-effectively utilizing Jefferson Lab's already existing Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility (CEBAF). In close collaboration, this community of nuclear physicists and accelerator scientists has rigorously explored the science case and design concept for this envisioned grand instrument of science. An electron-ion collider embodies the vision of reaching the next frontier in Quantum Chromodynamics - understanding the behavior of hadrons as complex bound states of quarks and gluons. Whereas the 12 GeV Upgrade of CEBAF will map the valence-quark components of the nucleon and nuclear wave functions in detail, an electron-ion collider will determine the largely unknown role sea quarks play and for the first time study the glue that binds all atomic nuclei. The MEIC will allow nuclear scientists to map the spin and spatial structure of quarks and gluons in nucleons, to discover the collective effects of gluons in nuclei, and to understand the emergence of hadrons from quarks and gluons. The proposed electron-ion collider at Jefferson Lab will collide a highly polarized electron beam originating from the CEBAF recirculating superconducting radiofrequency (SRF) linear accelerator (linac) with highly polarized light-ion beams or unpolarized light- to heavy-ion beams from a new ion accelerator and storage complex. Since the very beginning, the design studies at Jefferson Lab have focused on achieving high collider performance, particularly ultrahigh luminosities up to 10{sup 34} cm{sup -2}s{sup -1} per detector with large acceptance, while maintaining high polarization for both the electron and light-ion beams. These are the two key performance requirements of a future electron-ion collider facility as articulated by the NSAC Long Range Plan. In MEIC, a new ion complex is designed specifically to deliver ion beams that match the high bunch repetition and highly polarized electron beam from CEBAF. During the last two years, both development of the science case and optimization of the machine design point toward a medium-energy electron-ion collider as the topmost goal for Jefferson Lab. The MEIC, with relatively compact collider rings, can deliver a luminosity above 10{sup 34} cm{sup -2}s{sup -1} at a center-of-mass energy up to 65 GeV. It offers an electron energy up to 11 GeV, a proton energy up to 100 GeV, and corresponding energies per nucleon for heavy ions with the same magnetic rigidity. This design choice balances the scope of the science program, collider capabilities, accelerator technology innovation, and total project cost. An energy upgrade could be implemented in the future by adding two large collider rings housed in another large tunnel to push the center-of-mass energy up to or exceeding 140 GeV. After careful consideration of an alternative electron energy recovery linac on ion storage ring approach, a ring-ring collider scenario at high bunch repetition frequency was found to offer fully competitive performance while eliminating the uncertainties of challenging R&D on ampere-class polarized electron sources and many-pass energy-recovery linacs (ERLs). The essential new elements of an MEIC facility at Jefferson Lab are an electron storage ring and an entirely new, modern ion acceleration and storage complex. For the high-current electron collider ring, the upgraded 12 GeV CEBAF SRF linac will serve as a full-energy injector, and, if needed, provide top-off refilling. The CEBAF fixed-target nuclear physics program can be simultaneously operated since the filling time of the electron ring is very short. The ion complex for MEIC consists of sources for polarized light ions and unpolarized light to heavy ions, an SRF ion linac with proton energy up to 280 MeV, a 3 GeV prebooster synchrotron, a large booster synchrotron for proton energy up to 20 GeV, and a medium-energy collider ring with energy up to 100 GeV. The ion complex can accelerate other species of ions with corresponding energies at each accelerating stage. There are three collision points planned for MEIC. Two of them are for collisions with medium-energy ions; the third is for low energy ion beams stored in a dedicated low-energy compact storage ring, as a possible follow-on project.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Method for concentrating solids and removing solids from a filter medium

Disclosed are methods for concentrating solids and removing solids from a filter medium. The method includes the step of concentrating first particles of a first solid by removing a fluid stream through a filter medium in a filter. At least some of the first particles become blocking particles that block pores of the filter medium. The method also includes the step of inserting second particles of a second solid into the filter. These second particles scrape, vibrate, agglomerate, or a combination thereof along the filter medium, thus dislodging at least a portion of the blocking particles.

Frankman, David↗

High hardness and oxidation-resistant Cr-containing medium entropy ZrTaW diboride

This study reports the successful synthesis of a Cr-containing (Zr 0.30 Ta 0.34 Cr 0.06 W 0.30 )B 2 medium-entropy boride (MEB) via an in-situ reactive borothermal reduction route from oxide precursors. High-energy ball milling was employed to homogenize the precursor mixture prior to reactive densification. X-ray diffraction confirmed the formation of a predominantly AlB₂-type hexagonal diboride structure together with a secondary (W X , M 1-X )B monoboride phase. Microstructural characterization revealed compositional heterogeneity and localized W-rich regions associated with the secondary phase. The synthesized medium-entropy boride exhibited enhanced mechanical properties, which are attributed to lattice distortion and solid-solution strengthening effects. Thermogravimetric analysis revealed complex multistage oxidation behavior, and the oxidation resistance was compared with conventional ultra-high-temperature diborides. The results demonstrate the strong relationship between oxide-derived processing, compositional complexity, phase evolution, and oxidation behavior, highlighting the potential of medium-entropy borides for high-temperature structural applications

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A High-Frequency Planar Transformer with Medium-Voltage Isolation

This paper presents the design of a low-loss, high-frequency planar transformer having medium-voltage (10’s of kV) isolation capability while transformer primary and secondary windings are interleaved to reduce losses. Medium-voltage isolation between adjacent printed circuit board (PCB) layers is extremely challenging using traditional PCB dielectrics. The isolation requirement is met using PCB with 7 kV/mil polyimide (Panasonic Felios RF775) as the dielectric, and by an appropriate layout of the windings and the inter-winding vias. The transformer is used to implement a dual active bridge (DAB) converter in a stackable dc-ac architecture where the dc port is connected to a photovoltaic (PV) string and ac outputs are connected in series to achieve direct PV string-to-medium voltage conversion without the need for low-voltage collection or a bulky line frequency transformer. Since each DAB transformer processes time-varying power, a design methodology is developed to minimize line-cycle-averaged losses. Experimental results are presented for a 1:1 planar transformer in a 7.5 kW SiC-based dc-to-ac module operating at 200 kHz. Isolation of 26 kV between the primary and secondary layers and between the windings and the core is verified using a hipot tester.

insulation resistance↗

A High-Frequency Planar Transformer with Medium-Voltage Isolation: Preprint

This paper presents the design of a low-loss, high-frequency planar transformer having medium-voltage (10's of kV) isolation capability while transformer primary and secondary windings are interleaved to reduce losses. Medium-voltage isolation between adjacent printed circuit board (PCB) layers is extremely challenging using traditional PCB dielectrics. The isolation requirement is met using PCB with $7$\,kV/mil polyimide (Panasonic Felios RF775) as the dielectric, and by an appropriate layout of the windings and the inter-winding vias. The transformer is used to implement a dual active bridge (DAB) converter in a stackable dc-ac architecture where the dc port is connected to a photovoltaic (PV) string and ac outputs are connected in series to achieve direct PV string-to-medium voltage conversion without the need for low-voltage collection or a bulky line frequency transformer. Since each DAB transformer processes time-varying power, a design methodology is developed to minimize line-cycle-averaged losses. Experimental results are presented for a 1:1 planar transformer in a 7.5\,kW SiC-based dc-to-ac module operating at 200 kHz. Isolation of 26 kV between the primary and secondary layers and between the windings and the core is verified using a hipot tester.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗

On the strength and fracture toughness of an additive manufactured CrCoNi medium-entropy alloy

An additively manufactured (nominally equiatomic) CrCoNi alloy was processed by laser powder bed fusion (LPBF). At ambient temperatures (298 K), this medium-entropy alloy displayed a yield strength, σ y of ~691 ± 9 MPa, and an ultimate tensile strength, σ u of ~926 ± 15.2 MPa; at cryogenic temperatures (77 K), yield and tensile strengths increased respectively to σ y ~ 944 ± 6 MPa and σ u ~ 1382 ± 11 MPa. These strength levels are 57 and 44% higher than that of the wrought alloy, due to strengthening from the solidification cellular structures intertwined with dislocations in the LPBF CrCoNi. The crack-initiation fracture toughness, K JIc was measured to be ~183.7 ± 28 MPa√m at 298 K; this value marginally decreased by ~4% to ~176 ± 11 MPa√m at 77 K. These K JIc values of the LPBF CrCoNi were 11% and 35% lower than the wrought CrCoNi alloy at 298 K and 77 K, respectively. Here, the resistance to crack growth of the LPBF CrCoNi from its hierarchical micro- and meso-structures was evaluated using nonlinear-elastic fracture mechanics by measuring R-curve behavior in the form of the J-integral as a function of crack extension. The specific features of the hierarchical microstructures at different length-scales provide a basis for the strengthening and toughening properties of this additively manufactured medium-entropy alloy. This correlation between the deformation and the hierarchical microstructures at different length-scales may provide future guidance for improving the fracture toughness properties of medium-entropy alloys.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Short-range order and its impact on the CrCoNi medium-entropy alloy

Traditional metallic alloys are mixtures of elements in which the atoms of minority species tend to be distributed randomly if they are below their solubility limit, or to form secondary phases if they are above it. The concept of multiple-principal-element alloys has recently expanded this view, as these materials are single-phase solid solutions of generally equiatomic mixtures of metallic elements. This group of materials has received much interest owing to their enhanced mechanical properties 1,2,3,4,5 . They are usually called medium-entropy alloys in ternary systems and high-entropy alloys in quaternary or quinary systems, alluding to their high degree of configurational entropy. However, the question has remained as to how random these solid solutions actually are, with the influence of short-range order being suggested in computational simulations but not seen experimentally 6,7 . In this paper we report the observation, using energy-filtered transmission electron microscopy, of structural features attributable to short-range order in the CrCoNi medium-entropy alloy. Increasing amounts of such order give rise to both higher stacking-fault energy and hardness. These findings suggest that the degree of local ordering at the nanometre scale can be tailored through thermomechanical processing, providing a new avenue for tuning the mechanical properties of medium- and high-entropy alloys.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Characterization of In-Use Medium Duty Electric Vehicle Driving and Charging Behavior: Preprint

The U.S. Department of Energy's American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) deployment and demonstration projects are helping to commercialize technologies for all-electric vehicles (EVs). Under the ARRA program, data from Smith Electric and Navistar medium duty EVs have been collected, compiled, and analyzed in an effort to quantify the impacts of these new technologies. Over a period of three years, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has compiled data from over 250 Smith Newton EVs for a total of over 100,000 days of in-use operation. Similarly, data have been collected from over 100 Navistar eStar vehicles, with over 15,000 operating days having been analyzed. NREL has analyzed a combined total of over 4 million kilometers of driving and 1 million hours of charging data for commercial operating medium duty EVs. In this paper, the authors present an overview of medium duty EV operating and charging behavior based on in-use data collected from both Smith and Navistar vehicles operating in the United States. Specifically, this paper provides an introduction to the specifications and configurations of the vehicles examined; discusses the approach and methodology of data collection and analysis, and presents detailed results regarding daily driving and charging behavior. In addition, trends observed over the course of multiple years of data collection are examined, and conclusions are drawn about early deployment behavior and ongoing adjustments due to new and improving technology. Results and metrics such as average daily driving distance, route aggressiveness, charging frequency, and liter per kilometer diesel equivalent fuel consumption are documented and discussed.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Visualizing Fault Induced Traveling Waves In Medium Voltage Systems

Traveling waves are induced in power systems during most transient events in the grid. These waves travel close to the speed of light in overhead lines and 50% to 60% the speed of light in underground cables. Even though traveling wave-based protection schemes for transmission systems are available commercially, traveling waves in medium voltage distribution networks are still in research space. Compared to transmission system, medium voltage distribution systems contain more reflections and refractions. Thus, visualization is challenging and is critical in locating faults in distribution network. To address this visualization challenge, this paper presents an open-source tool to visualize the traveling waves using Bewley lattice approach. The developed visualization tool will be useful for the protection engineers to detect and triangulate fault locations in the medium voltage systems and isolate the faults.

Bewley Lattice↗

SiC-Based 5-kV Universal Modular Soft-Switching Solid-State Transformer (M-S4T) for Medium-Voltage DC Microgrids and Distribution Grids

Medium-voltage DC (MVDC) grids are attractive for electric aircraft and ship power systems, battery energy storage system (BESS), fast charging electric vehicle (EV), etc. Such EV or BESS applications need isolated bidirectional MVDC to LVDC or LVAC converters. However, the existing Si-based solutions cannot fulfill the requirements of a high-efficiency and robust converter for MVDC grids. This paper presents a 5 kV SiC-based universal modular solid-state transformer (SST). This universal current-source SST can interface either a LVAC or LVDC grid with a MVDC grid in single-stage power conversion, while the conventional dual active bridge (DAB) converter needs an additional inverter. The proposed SST module using 3.3 kV SiC MOSFETs and diodes is bidirectional and can serve as a building block in series or parallel for higher-voltage higher-power systems. The topology of each module is based on the soft-switching solid-state transformer (S4T) with reduced conduction loss, which features reduced EMI through controlled dv/dt, and high efficiency with full-range ZVS for main devices and ZCS for auxiliary devices. Operation principle of the modular S4T (M-S4T), capacitor voltage balancing control between the cascaded modules, design of components including a medium-voltage (MV) medium-frequency transformer (MFT) to realize a 50 kVA 5 kV DC to 600 V DC or 480 V AC M-S4T are presented. Importantly, the MV MFT prototype achieves very low leakage inductance (0.13%) and 15 kV insulation with coaxial cables and nanocrystalline cores. Here, the proposed universal modular SST is compared against the DAB solution and verified with DC-DC and DC-AC simulation and 4 kV experimental results. Significantly, the MV experimental results of a modular DC transformer with each module at MVDC are rarely covered in the literature and reported for the first time.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Multi-Speed Transmission For Commercial Delivery Medium Duty PEDVs

Successful completion of the proposed project will set a course for improving quality of life by overcoming key challenges in the gearbox for commercial-delivery, medium-duty, plug-in electric drive vehicles: It will reduce US dependency on foreign oil through the use of electric driven propulsion instead of fuel driven. It will reduce health risks by replacing tailpipe emissions in densely populated city centers. Finally, it will improve the performance-cost basis to meet or exceed the expectations of the targeted medium duty vehicle fleet owners and the independent customers. The proposed multi-speed transmission will narrow motor operation to the peak efficiency region, thereby increasing the electric powertrain efficiency to help close the range gap. Further, it will enhance customer satisfaction by improving vehicle acceleration, top speed and gradeability over the baseline. The project was conducted in three budget periods: In BP1: Technology Development, High-level vehicle powertrain models were used to optimize candidate transmission architectures and ratios along with a variety of traction motor characteristics for concept selection. The detailed driveline designs and component dynamics were investigated to meet medium-duty EV requirements; In BP2: Technology Development and Prototype Demonstration, The modeling and simulations with multi-speed transmissions were extended to other MD and HD EV platforms. Clean sheet design of a compact, lightweight, flexible, and modular, four-speed transmission was completed. Development of novel shifting and controls strategies were started and procurement of the prototype transmission and the controller hardware was begun; In BP3: Technology Integration, Testing, and Demonstration, Prototyping the four-speed automated mechanical transmission was completed. The transmission controls system and software development and preliminary gearbox dyno tests were done at Eaton. ORNL conducted integrated powertrain HIL tests. One of the prototype units was fully integrated into a Proterra BE35 demonstration electric bus. The shift control strategy was fine-tuned on the integrated vehicle at Eaton Marshall Proving Grounds. NREL tested the vehicle and validated the performance gains. Simulations predicted up to 20% increase in system energy efficiency depending on drive cycles, a top speed of greater than70 mph on flat road, 40% faster acceleration and a doubled gradeability with four-speed transmission as compared to the baseline EVs. Chassis Dyno Tests at NREL verified the simulation results of Eaton team and the HIL test results of ORNL team. The new four-speed EV transmission is efficient, reliable, modular, scalable, light weight, small size, and will be affordable. Furthermore, four-speed transmission enables downsizing of motor, battery and final drive, thereby reducing the total system cost.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Modular, Multifunction, Multiport and Medium Voltage Utility Scale SiC PV Inverter (Final Report)

This project is to develop and demonstrate a Modular, Multi-function, Multiport and Medium Voltage utility scale SiC solar inverter (M4 Inverter). The M4 Inverter is a next generation utility scale PV + storage inverter that can substantially reduce the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) while providing grid friendly ancillary services. Conventional utility scale solar inverters includes three parts, a megawatt rated solar inverter, a low frequency transformer (LFT) and a medium voltage switch gear. The proposed M4 Inverter directly converts the DC output of solar panels to medium voltage AC, eliminating the bulky and costly LFT. The M4 Inverter also has a DC port to interface with an additional energy storage device. This plus its bidirectional power flow capability, allows multiple functions in addition to PV maximum power tracking be achieved. These additional functionalities include but not limited to reactive power support, peak shaving, fast frequency regulation and synthetic inertia. Predicted LCOE reductions with these added functionalities, improved efficiency and longer lifetime time are more than 30% compared with the 2017 utility scale solar LCOE. A 1MVA SiC M4 Inverter was developed and tested at high power level. The project has also advanced the state of the art in controller hardware in the loop simulation capability. Power electronic innovations introduced in the M4 Inverter includes 1700V SiC MOSFET application in 1500V PV system, soft switching three-port power converters and modular converter architecture.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Value of medium range weather forecasts in the improvement of seasonal hydrologic prediction skill

We investigated the contribution of medium range weather forecasts with lead times up to 14 days to seasonal hydrologic prediction skill over the Conterminous United States (CONUS). Three different Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP)-based experiments were performed for the period 1980-2003 using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model to generate forecasts of monthly runoff and soil moisture (SM) at lead-1 (first month of the forecast period) to lead-3. The first experiment (ESP) used a resampling from the retrospective period 1980-2003 and represented full climatological uncertainty for the entire forecast period. In the second and third experiments, the first 14 days of each ESP ensemble member were replaced by either observations (perfect 14-day forecast) or by a deterministic 14-day weather forecast. We used Spearman rank correlations of forecasts and observations as the forecast skill score. We estimated the potential and actual improvement in baseline skill as the difference between the skill of experiments 2 and 3 relative to ESP, respectively. We found that useful runoff and SM forecast skill at lead-1 to -3 months can be obtained by exploiting medium range weather forecast skill in conjunction with the skill derived by the knowledge of initial hydrologic conditions. Potential improvement in baseline skill by using medium range weather forecasts, for runoff (SM) forecasts generally varies from 0 to 0.8 (0 to 0.5) as measured by differences in correlations, with actual improvement generally from 0 to 0.8 of the potential improvement. With some exceptions, most of the improvement in runoff is for lead-1 forecasts, although some improvement in SM was achieved at lead-2.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗