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NASA NTRS1989

A mesoscale numerical simulation of an index for use in the forecasting of the potential severity of wet microbursts

This paper demonstrates the feasibility of using the wet microburst potential intensity index developed by Proctor (1989) for predicting the onset of a wet microburst. After describing the index and the principles involved in its derivation, the version 4.0 of the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS) model described by Karyampudi et al. (1988) was used to illustrate how the index would perform as a forecast product. An analysis is presented of the use of the microburst potential intensity index in the numerical simulation of the DFR aircraft accident on August 2, 1985 in a downburst environment.

Zack, John W.↗

NASA NTRS2001

The Impact of TRMM Data on Mesoscale Numerical Simulation of Super Typhoon Paka

This paper assesses the impact of TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) derived surface rainfall data on the numerical simulation of Super Typhoon Paka (1997). A series of mesoscale numerical simulations is conducted for simulating Super Typhoon Paka during its mature stage by using the Penn State/NCAR MM5 model with initial conditions derived from the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) global analyses with and without assimilation of the TMI surface rainfall data. Simulation results clearly demonstrate that the GEOS analysis with TMI rainfall data leads to a improved MM5 simulation of Typhoon Paka in terms of its intensity and kinematical and precipitation structures, since inclusion of the rainfall data into initial and boundary condition improves the storm environmental conditions (e.g., moisture and circulation). Further improvement can also be obtained by incorporating TMI data with mesoscale bogus vortex information into the initial conditions.

Pu, Zhao-Xia↗

NASA NTRS1990

The fossil record of evolution: Data on diversification and extinction

The two principle efforts include: (1) a compilation of a synoptic, mesoscale data base on times of origination and extinction of animal genera in the oceans over the last 600 million years of geologic time; and (2) an analysis of statistical patterns in these data that relate to the diversification of complex life and to the occurrence of mass extinctions, especially those that might be associated with extraterrestrial phenomena. The data base is unique in its taxonomic scope and detail and in its temporal resolution. It is a valuable resource for investigating evolutionary expansions and extinctions of complex life.

Sepkoski, J. John, Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Use of GTE, Mozaic, Sonex, and UARS-MLS Data in Understanding Tropospheric Processes Critical to Model Development

During the first year we focused on the analysis of data collected on over 7600 commercial aircraft flights (the MOZAIC program). The aim was to further our understanding of the fundamental dynamical processes that drive mesoscale phenomena in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, and their effects on the advection of passive scalars. Through these studies we made the following findings. 2001]: We derived the Kolmogorov equation for the third-order velocity structure function on an f-plane. We showed how the sign of the function yields the direction of the energy cascade. The remarkable linearity of the measured off diagonal third-order structure function was studied. We suggested that the Coriolis term, which appears explicitly in this equation, may be crucial in understanding the observed kinetic energy spectra at scales larger than 100 km, instead of the nonlinear advection term as previously assumed. Also, we showed that decreases with latitude for mid- to high-latitudes, and tabulated the values. Ozone concentration structure functions were calculated by restricting the data points to approximately isentropic pairings. In this way we were able to make comparisons with scalar advection theories. We found that, at even the largest scales, there was no evidence for the simple scaling predicted for smooth advection/diffusion.

Newell, Reginald E.↗

NASA NTRS2011

MesoNAM Verification Phase II

The 45th Weather Squadron Launch Weather Officers use the 12-km resolution North American Mesoscale model (MesoNAM) forecasts to support launch weather operations. In Phase I, the performance of the model at KSC/CCAFS was measured objectively by conducting a detailed statistical analysis of model output compared to observed values. The objective analysis compared the MesoNAM forecast winds, temperature, and dew point to the observed values from the sensors in the KSC/CCAFS wind tower network. In Phase II, the AMU modified the current tool by adding an additional 15 months of model output to the database and recalculating the verification statistics. The bias, standard deviation of bias, Root Mean Square Error, and Hypothesis test for bias were calculated to verify the performance of the model. The results indicated that the accuracy decreased as the forecast progressed, there was a diurnal signal in temperature with a cool bias during the late night and a warm bias during the afternoon, and there was a diurnal signal in dewpoint temperature with a low bias during the afternoon and a high bias during the late night.

Watson, Leela R.↗

NASA NTRS2019

North American Extreme Precipitation Events and Related Large-Scale Meteorological Patterns: a Review of Statistical Methods, Dynamics, Modeling, and Trends

This paper surveys the current state of knowledge regarding Large-Scale Meteorological Patterns (LSMPs) associated with short-duration (less than one week) extreme precipitation events over North America. In contrast to teleconnections, which are typically defined based on the characteristic spatial variations of a meteorological field or on the remote circulation response to a known forcing, LSMPs are defined relative to the occurrence of a specific phenomenon—here, extreme precipitation—and with an emphasis on the synoptic scales that have a primary influence in individual events, have medium-range weather predictability, and are well-resolved in both weather and climate models. For the LSMP relationship with extreme precipitation, we consider the previous literature with respect to definitions and data, dynamical mechanisms, model representation, and climate change trends. There is considerable uncertainty in identifying extremes based on existing observational precipitation data and some limitations in analyzing the associated LSMPs in reanalysis data. Many different definitions of “extreme” are in use, making it difficult to directly compare different studies. Dynamically, several types of meteorological systems—extratropical cyclones, tropical cyclones, mesoscale convective systems, and mesohighs—and several mechanisms—fronts, atmospheric rivers, and orographic ascent—have been shown to be important aspects of extreme precipitation LSMPs. The extreme precipitation is often realized through mesoscale processes organized, enhanced, or triggered by the LSMP. Understanding of model representation, trends, and projections for LSMPs is at an early stage, although some 4 promising analysis techniques have been identified and the LSMP perspective is useful for evaluating model dynamics.

Mathew Barlow↗

NASA NTRS2012

The SPoRT-WRF: Evaluating the Impact of NASA Datasets on Convective Forecasts

The Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT) is a collaborative partnership between NASA and operational forecasting entities, including a number of National Weather Service offices. SPoRT transitions real-time NASA products and capabilities to its partners to address specific operational forecast challenges. One challenge that forecasters face is applying convection-allowing numerical models to predict mesoscale convective weather. In order to address this specific forecast challenge, SPoRT produces real-time mesoscale model forecasts using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model that includes unique NASA products and capabilities. Currently, the SPoRT configuration of the WRF model (SPoRT-WRF) incorporates the 4-km Land Information System (LIS) land surface data, 1-km SPoRT sea surface temperature analysis and 1-km Moderate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) greenness vegetation fraction (GVF) analysis, and retrieved thermodynamic profiles from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS). The LIS, SST, and GVF data are all integrated into the SPoRT-WRF through adjustments to the initial and boundary conditions, and the AIRS data are assimilated into a 9-hour SPoRT WRF forecast each day at 0900 UTC. This study dissects the overall impact of the NASA datasets and the individual surface and atmospheric component datasets on daily mesoscale forecasts. A case study covering the super tornado outbreak across the Ce ntral and Southeastern United States during 25-27 April 2011 is examined. Three different forecasts are analyzed including the SPoRT-WRF (NASA surface and atmospheric data), the SPoRT WRF without AIRS (NASA surface data only), and the operational National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) WRF (control with no NASA data). The forecasts are compared qualitatively by examining simulated versus observed radar reflectivity. Differences between the simulated reflectivity are further investigated using convective parameters along with model soundings to determine the impacts of the various NASA datasets. Additionally, quantitative evaluation of select meteorological parameters is performed using the Meteorological Evaluation Tools model verification package to compare forecasts to in situ surface and upper air observations.

Zavodsky, Bradley↗

NASA NTRS1979

Observing, analyzing, and modeling mesoscale weather phenomena

The objective of the paper is to place current research into mesoscale weather phenomena in proper perspective, and to discuss key problems to be addressed in the coming years. Key observing systems and field programs are examined, along with analysis techniques in context of the dynamic models with which they interact. The discussion covers different classes of dynamic models, including prediction models, simulation models, and parameterization schemes.

Kreitzberg, C. W.↗

NASA NTRS1985

The Structure and Dynamics of an Observed Moist Front

The structure and dynamics of the moist cold front of 25 and 26 April 1979, the third observing day of the Severe Environmental Storms and Mesoscale experiment (SESAME), are investigated through the use of a three-dimensional mesoscale numerical model. This work is one of the first studies in which model results are compared, in a one-to-one manner, with a detailed observational analysis, namely that of Ogura and Portis (1982) as taken from the SESAME observations. In addition, frontogenetical effects, both adiabatic and diabatic, are studied on a vertical cross-section through the front; similarities and differences with the adiabatic analysis of Ogura and Portis are discussed. Many similarities exist between the modeled and analyzed fields, although the analysis tends to have weaker horizontal gradients due to the coarseness of the observational network. Vorticity and convergence near the surface were found to have the same magnitude in both the model solution and the analysis, in contrast to idealized frontogenesis models which predict vorticity to be much larger than convergence.

Orlanski, I.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Assimilation of scalar versus horizontal gradient information from the VAS into a mesoscale model

Comparisons are made between analyses and forecasts which incorporate VAS geopotential data as either scalar or horizontal gradient information for a case study on the AVE/VAS day of Mar. 6, 1982. On this day, incorporating the VAS information in analysis as a variational constraint on horizontal geopotential gradients significantly mitigated the effects of large data biases which made VAS assimilation by standard scalar methods very difficult. A subsequent forecast made from the gradient assimilation was superior to one made from the standard analysis and of comparable quality in geopotentials to a control forecast from synoptic data. Most impact was noted in the forecasts of vertical motion and precipitation in the gradient vs this control simulation.

Diak, George↗

NASA NTRS1985

Data sets and products

Against background of spacecraft and in situ measurements, participants at the JPL workshops sought to review the sensor performance, understand the different SSt retrieval algorithms, evaluate the sensor SST accuracies, and discuss directions for future sensor development. The issue of utilization of satellite SSTs in climate, air sea interaction, and mesoscale oceanography studies was not the main focus of the workshops, but did have a bearing on the recommendations that arose from the discussions. More date were available for analysis with the acquisition of AVHRR (MCSST), HIRS/MSU, and VAS data sets. In Workshop 3 the acquisition and analysis fo data were completed, recommendations for future research and sensor development were discussed, and plans were made for eventual publication of results from the workshop series in the open literature.

Hilland, J. E.↗

NASA NTRS1999

A Comparison of the Diurnal Variation of Rainfall in the LBA Area Derived from Satellite Infrared Observations and Raingages

In this paper we will present results from the application of a satellite infrared (IR) technique for estimating rainfall over northern South America. Our main objectives are to examine the diurnal variability of rainfall and to investigate the relative contributions from the convective and stratiform components. Estimates for Jan-Apr. 1999 will be presented for a large (30 by 50 degree) area that includes the Amazon Basin and the LBA (Large Scale Biosphere Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia) study area. An analysis of the LBA raingage has begun, and results from the analysis of the gage-derived diurnal cycle will be compared to the satellite estimates. Also, we hope to perform a comparison of results with LBA case studies of mesoscale convective systems using TOGA (Tropical Oceans and Global Atmosphere) and S-bands radars. Future calibration of the IR technique using rain estimates from TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) is anticipated.

Negril, Andrew J.↗

NASA NTRS1976

An equivalent potential vorticity theory applied to the analysis and prediction of severe storm dynamics

Potential vorticity theory is developed in a description of an equivalent potential temperature topography, and a new theory suited to the description of scale interaction is elaborated. Macroscale triggering of ageostrophic flow fields at the mesoscale, in turn leading to release of convective instability along narrow zones at the microscale, is examined. Correlation of appreciable decrease in potential vorticity with such phenomena as cumulonimbi, tornados, and duststorms is examined. The relevance of a multiscale energy-momentum cascade in numerical prediction of severe mesoscale and microscale phenomena from radiosonde data is reviewed. Hypotheses for mesoscale dynamics are constructed.

Paine, D. A.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Investigation of Mesoscale Variability in Convective Boundary Layer Development Using LASE

Throughout this research effort we have analyzed data collected from the Southern Great Plains 1997 (SGP) experiment to evaluate terms in the budget of water vapor in the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL). The analysis is centered on using data obtained from the Lidar Atmospheric Sensing Experiment (LASE) downward-looking differential absorption lidar (DIAL) that was flown on the NASA-P3 aircraft. The DIAL is able to measure vertical profiles of water vapor, as well as aerosol backscatter, throughout the ABL. Initial work on using the DIAL is summarized in the attached meeting preprint, which discusses results from a segment of the 12 July 1997 flight. Additional analysis has been carried out using both the DIAL data and in situ measurements to obtain more complete and detailed estimates of terms in the ABL water vapor budget. This includes data from the Canadian National Research Council Twin Otter aircraft, as well as from a spectrum of surface-based instruments. This work is expected to lead to a refereed article planned for submission to the Journal.

Lenschow, Donald H.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Interactive initialization of heat flux parameters for numerical models using satellite temperature measurements

Day/night Heat Capacity Mapping Mission image pairs over Kansas and Indiana were used to examine the spatial variation of moisture availability on the mesoscale. Of particular concern was whether patterns of moisture availability and thermal inertia, as well as surface heat fluxes, respond to significant spatial variations in the rainfall pattern. A temperature analysis for the Indiana case is presented.

Carlson, T. N.↗

NASA NTRS1987

HIS - A high resolution atmospheric sounder

This paper describes the High-Resolution Interferometer Sounder (HIS), which is the first of a new generation of passive remote sensors for achieving high vertical resolution sounding information, with special attention given to the sounding retrieval procedure. Examples of mesoscale temperature and moisture profiles obtained with airborne HIS during field programs held in 1986 are presented. A spacecraft version of the instrument, to be used in advanced global weather analysis and forecasting, is under development.

Smith, W. L.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Ocean-Atmosphere Coupled Model Simulations of Precipitation in the Central Andes

The meridional extent and complex orography of the South American continent contributes to a wide diversity of climate regimes ranging from hyper-arid deserts to tropical rainforests to sub-polar highland regions. In addition, South American meteorology and climate are also made further complicated by ENSO, a powerful coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon. Modelling studies in this region have typically resorted to either atmospheric mesoscale or atmosphere-ocean coupled global climate models. The latter offers full physics and high spatial resolution, but it is computationally inefficient typically lack an interactive ocean, whereas the former offers high computational efficiency and ocean-atmosphere coupling, but it lacks adequate spatial and temporal resolution to adequate resolve the complex orography and explicitly simulate precipitation. Explicit simulation of precipitation is vital in the Central Andes where rainfall rates are light (0.5-5 mm hr-1), there is strong seasonality, and most precipitation is associated with weak mesoscale-organized convection. Recent increases in both computational power and model development have led to the advent of coupled ocean-atmosphere mesoscale models for both weather and climate study applications. These modelling systems, while computationally expensive, include two-way ocean-atmosphere coupling, high resolution, and explicit simulation of precipitation. In this study, we use the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST), a fully-coupled mesoscale atmosphere-ocean modeling system. Previous work has shown COAWST to reasonably simulate the entire 2003-2004 wet season (Dec-Feb) as validated against both satellite and model analysis data when ECMWF interim analysis data were used for boundary conditions on a 27-9-km grid configuration (Outer grid extent: 60.4S to 17.7N and 118.6W to 17.4W).

Regional Climate Model↗

NASA NTRS1987

Verification of mesoscale objective analyses of VAS and rawinsonde data using the March 1982 AVE/VAS special network data

Various combinations of VAS (Visible and Infrared Spin Scan Radiometer Atmospheric Sounder) data, conventional rawinsonde data, and gridded data from the National Weather Service's (NWS) global analysis, were used in successive-correction and variational objective-analysis procedures. Analyses are produced for 0000 GMT 7 March 1982, when the VAS sounding distribution was not greatly limited by the existence of cloud cover. The successive-correction (SC) procedure was used with VAS data alone, rawinsonde data alone, and both VAS and rawinsonde data. Variational techniques were applied in three ways. Each of these techniques was discussed.

Doyle, James D.↗