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Technology Alignment and Portfolio Prioritization (TAPP): Advanced Methods in Strategic Analysis, Technology Forecasting and Long Term Planning for Human Exploration and Operations, Advanced Exploration Systems and Advanced Concepts

The Advanced Concepts Office (ACO) at NASA, Marshall Space Flight Center is expanding its current technology assessment methodologies. ACO is developing a framework called TAPP that uses a variety of methods, such as association mining and rule learning from data mining, structure development using a Technological Innovation System (TIS), and social network modeling to measure structural relationships. The role of ACO is to 1) produce a broad spectrum of ideas and alternatives for a variety of NASA's missions, 2) determine mission architecture feasibility and appropriateness to NASA's strategic plans, and 3) define a project in enough detail to establish an initial baseline capable of meeting mission objectives ACO's role supports the decision­-making process associated with the maturation of concepts for traveling through, living in, and understanding space. ACO performs concept studies and technology assessments to determine the degree of alignment between mission objectives and new technologies. The first step in technology assessment is to identify the current technology maturity in terms of a technology readiness level (TRL). The second step is to determine the difficulty associated with advancing a technology from one state to the next state. NASA has used TRLs since 1970 and ACO formalized them in 1995. The DoD, ESA, Oil & Gas, and DoE have adopted TRLs as a means to assess technology maturity. However, "with the emergence of more complex systems and system of systems, it has been increasingly recognized that TRL assessments have limitations, especially when considering [the] integration of complex systems." When performing the second step in a technology assessment, NASA requires that an Advancement Degree of Difficulty (AD2) method be utilized. NASA has used and developed or used a variety of methods to perform this step: Expert Opinion or Delphi Approach, Value Engineering or Value Stream, Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), Technique for the Order of Prioritization by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS), and other multi­‐criteria decision-making methods. These methods can be labor-intensive, often contain cognitive or parochial bias, and do not consider the competing prioritization between mission architectures. Strategic Decision-Making (SDM) processes cannot be properly understood unless the context of the technology is understood. This makes assessing technological change particularly challenging due to the relationships "between incumbent technology and the incumbent (innovation) system in relation to the emerging technology and the emerging innovation system." The central idea in technology dynamics is to consider all activities that contribute to the development, diffusion, and use of innovations as system functions. Bergek defines system functions within a TIS to address what is actually happening and has a direct influence on the ultimate performance of the system and technology development. ACO uses similar metrics and is expanding these metrics to account for the structure and context of the technology. At NASA technology and strategy is strongly interrelated. NASA's Strategic Space Technology Investment Plan (SSTIP) prioritizes those technologies essential to the pursuit of NASA's missions and national interests. The SSTIP is strongly coupled with NASA's Technology Roadmaps to provide investment guidance during the next four years, within a twenty-year horizon. This paper discusses the methods ACO is currently developing to better perform technology assessments while taking into consideration Strategic Alignment, Technology Forecasting, and Long Term Planning.

Funaro, Gregory V.↗

Biotechnology Approaches to Life Detection

The direct detection of organic biomarkers for living or fossil microbes on Mars by an in situ instrument is a worthy goal for future lander missions. Several new and innovative biotechnology approaches are being explored. Firstly we have proposed an instrument based on immunological reactions to specific antibodies to cause activation of fluorescent stains. Antibodies are raised or acquired to a variety of general and specific substances that might be in Mars soil. These antibodies are then combined with various fluorescent stains and applied to micron sized numbered spots on a small (2-3 cm) test plate where they become firmly attached after freeze drying. Using technology that has been developed for gene mining in DNA technology up to 10,000 tests per square inch can now be applied to a test plate. On Mars or the planet/moon of interest, a sample of soil from a trench or drill core is extracted with water and/or an organic solvent and ultrasonication and then applied to the test plate. Any substance, which has an antibody on the test plate, will react with its antibody and activate its fluorescent stain. At the moment a small UV light source will illuminate the test plate, which is observed with a small CCD camera, although other detection systems will be applied. The numbered spots that fluoresce indicate the presence of the tested-for substance, and the intensity indicates relative amounts. Furthermore with up to a thousand test plates available false positives and several variations of antibody can also be screened for. The entire instrument can be quite small and light, on the order of 10 cm in each dimension. A possible choice for light source may be small UV lasers at several wavelengths. Some of the wells or spots can contain simply standard fluorescent stains used to detect live cells, dead cells, DNA, etc. The stains in these spots may be directly activated, with no antibodies being necessary. The proposed system will look for three classes of biomarkers: those from extant life, such as DNA, those from extinct life such as hopanes, and those from organic compounds not necessarily associated with life such as PAHs, rocket exhaust contamination and other a/pre-biotic chemicals. Both monoclonal and polyclonal antibodies can be used. Monoclonal antibodies react with a very specific compound, but polyclonal antibodies may react to any of a whole family of compounds. Furthermore the technique of phage display to raise antibodies against classically non-antigenic molecules is also being considered. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Steele, Andrew↗

Summary of the First AIAA Stability and Control Prediction Workshop

Results from the First AIAA Stability and Control Prediction Workshop are summarized in this paper. The workshop series was developed in support of three primary objectives: (1) to establish best practices for the prediction of stability and control derivatives using industry-standard Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) solvers, (2) to provide an impartial forum for evaluating the effectiveness of Reynolds-averaged-Navier-Stokes- and Detached-Eddy-Simulation-based modeling techniques, and (3) to identify areas in need of additional research and development. To address these objectives, the inaugural workshop focused on generating computational aerodynamic predictions for the ONERA version of the NASA/Boeing Common Research Model. The configuration includes the wing, body, horizontal tail, and a vertical tail designed by ONERA. While longitudinal wind tunnel test data for the model had been previously documented, unpublished lateral test data at small sideslip angles provided a unique opportunity for participants to generate blind computational predictions for wind tunnel data comparisons. Additional test cases included assessments of the Mach number effect on static lateral/directional stability and the impact of the wind tunnel sting on longitudinal stability. Participants were invited to generate solutions using two workshop-provided series of structured overset and unstructured grids, in addition to any participant custom grids of interest. Total and component-level breakdowns for the force and moment coefficients for each test case are presented, as well as sectional pressure distribution data on the wing and tail components, to assess the agreement between several different Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes CFD solvers.

CFD↗

Advanced Metal Separation (AMS) via Marangoni Effect-driven Separation

For practical, economical, and sustainable human missions to the Moon, processing of lunar regolith and metal oxides is necessary for localized production of oxygen (O2) and metals that can be repurposed as rocket propellant, life support O2, and in-space manufactured parts. The primary candidates for in-situ resource utilization (ISRU) regolith processing are carbothermic reductions and molten regolith electrolysis (MRE) which both produce oxygen and a reduced, deoxygenated metallic slag. A metal separation technique is still required to capture and purify metals from the deoxygenated slag for reuse in areas such as metallic part fabrication, structural or design frameworks, and metal catalyst production. The Marangoni Effect is best explained as mass transfer along an interface driven by surface tension gradients induced by temperature and concentration differences. Due to the temperature gradients, molten metal can be transported in this fashion to create thin films. This method can transport molten metal in the absence of gravity or mechanical motion and greatly increases the available surface area for a vacuum fractional separation process. In this study, a novel vacuum furnace induces the Marangoni Effect to fractionally decompose and separate valuable metals (e.g., aluminum) from thin films of molten metal via vacuum distillation. The proposed work will examine lunar regolith, metal-based recycling feedstocks, and metallic slags produced from the carbothermal reduction of regolith. Data and observations from this study could produce a simple yet effective method of refining lunar derived metals by taking advantage of the high vacuum environment present on the lunar surface.

ISRU↗

Development of New Lunar Highland Regolith Simulant, NUW-LHT-5M

Introduction: NASA has a need for large quantities of lunar simulants that closely match future manned lunar missions at landing sites near the Lunar South Pole. The current simulant was designed to approximate NU-LHT-2M, and -4M, except using natural minerals and a fully synthetic, non-basaltic, high calcium glass. Washington Mills in Niagara Falls, NY was contracted to produce this new simulant due to their electric arc furnace (EAF) fusion technology and capabilities for crushing and sizing ceramics. The primary objectives of this work were: (1) to create a commercially produced simulant that contains a high fidelity, high calcium (An90+), low Mg/Fe glass without basaltic constituents; (2) to create a simulant that uses existing, terrestrially mined, and readily available minerals blended with a synthetic glass, and (3) accomplish objectives (1) and (2) using conventional processing methods capable of production levels that can meet substantial current and future demands of NASA projects. Another consideration was that highland simulants closest to meeting these requirements, NU-LHT-2M and -4M types, are out of production and largely out of stock. Design: The design chosen for development and production for this work is NU-LHT-2M, de-signed by Doug Stoeser and Douglas Rickman, which uses Stillwater anorthosite and norite rocks and synthetic glass. The composition targeted the average composition, glass content and particle size distribution of Apollo 16 samples [1]. The design utilizes two Stillwater minerals, anorthosite (37.7 wt.%), norite (17.6 wt.%), a commercially sourced olivine (4.7 wt.%), and a synthetic glass (40 wt.%). Processing: Stillwater rocks were hand collected and initially crushed by the USGS. Further crushing and milling was performed at Washing-ton Mills. For the glass, oxides were blended in the ap-propriate ratios, blended in a v-blender, and placed in a graphite lined, water cooled pot. The mixture was fused in Washington Mills’ pilot scale, 500 kW EAF. The molten glass was then poured into water and quenched to inhibit crystallization. Several pour/quench cycles were required to produce the total quantity of glass needed. Anorthosite, norite and olivine were milled together to the target particle size in a ball mill. The glass was ball milled separately. The complete simulant was produced by blending the milled materials. Particle size distribution, phase and chemical analyses of the materials was were per-formed at Washington Mills. Results: The glass composition was found to match the Apollo 16 oxide content average [1] quite well, with the exception of SiO2 and Fe2O3. The deviation of SiO2 and Fe2O3 from batched content was believed to be due to limitations inherent in the use of the arc furnace technique for these types of materials. A particle size distribution of the full simulant formulation closely matching the average for the Apollo 16 samples was also achieved. Fig. 1 shows the morphology of the final simulant particles. The size distribution is compared to the target in Fig. 2. Conclusions: A new lunar highlands type simulant containing a high-quality synthetic glass, closely matching an average composition of the Apollo 16 regolith was produced. Processing utilized easily scalable mineral and glass making methods.

simulant↗

Non-Magnetic, Tough, Corrosion- and Wear-Resistant Knives From Bulk Metallic Glasses and Composites

Quality knives are typically fabricated from high-strength steel alloys. Depending on the application, there are different requirements for mechanical and physical properties that cause problems for steel alloys. For example, diver's knives are generally used in salt water, which causes rust in steel knives. Titanium diver's knives are a popular alternative due to their salt water corrosion resistance, but are too soft to maintain a sharp cutting edge. Steel knives are also magnetic, which is undesirable for military applications where the knives are used as a tactical tool for diffusing magnetic mines. Steel is also significantly denser than titanium (8 g/cu cm vs. 4.5 g/cu cm), which results in heavier knives for the same size. Steel is hard and wear-resistant, compared with titanium, and can keep a sharp edge during service. A major drawback of both steel and titanium knives is that they must be ground or machined into the final knife shape from a billet. Since most knives have a mirrored surface and a complex shape, manufacturing them is complex. It would be more desirable if the knife could be cast into a net or near-net shape in a single step. The solution to the deficiencies of titanium, steel, and ceramic knives is to fabricate them using bulk metallic glasses (or composites). These alloys can be cast into net or near-net shaped knives with a combination of properties that exceed both titanium and steel. A commercially viable BMG (bulk metallic glass) or composite knife is one that exhibits one or all of the following properties: It is based on titanium, has a self-sharpening edge, can retain an edge during service, is hard, is non-magnetic, is corrosion-resistant against a variety of corrosive environments, is tough (to allow for prying), can be cast into a net-shape with a mirror finish and a complex shape, has excellent wear resistance, and is low-density. These properties can be achieved in BMG and composites through alloy chemistry and processing. For each desired property for knife fabrication and performance, there is an alloy development strategy that optimizes behavior. Although BMG knives have been demonstrated as far back as 1995, they never found commercial success because they had to be ground (which presented problems because the alloys contained beryllium), they weren't low cost (because they weren't cast to a net-shape), they were brittle (because they were made with a low-quality commercial material), and they had extremely poor corrosion resistance (because corrosion was not well-understood in these materials). Ultimately, these shortcomings prevented the widespread commercialization. In the current work, the inventors have applied more than a decade of research on BMGs from Caltech and JPL to develop a better understanding of how to make BMG knives that exhibit an optimal combination of properties, processing and cost. Alloys have been developed based in titanium (and other metals), that exhibit high toughness, high hardness, excellent corrosion resistance, no ferromagnetism, edge-retaining selfsharpening, and the ability to be cast like a plastic using commercially available casting techniques (currently used by commercial companies such as Liquidmetal Technologies and Visser Precision Casting). The inventors argue that depending on the application (diving, military, tactical, utility, etc.) there is an optimal combination of design and alloy composition. Moreover, with new casting technologies not available at the inception of these materials, net-shaped knives can be cast into complex shapes that require no aftermarket forming, except for sharpening using water-cooled polishing wheel. These combinations of discoveries seek to make low-cost BMG knives commercially viable products that have no equal among metal or ceramic knives. Current work at JPL focuses on net-shape casting of these alloys and testing their mechanical properties versus commercially available knives to demonstrate their benefits.

Hoffman, Douglas C.↗