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At least 253 records · Page 14

Observing Ice in Clouds from Space

There are many satellite observations of cloud top properties and the liquid and rain content of clouds, however, we do not yet quantitatively understand the processes that control the water budget of the upper troposphere where ice is the predominant phase, and how these processes are linked to precipitation processes and the radiative energy budget. The ice in clouds in the upper troposphere either melts into rain or is detrained, and persists, as cirrus clouds affecting the hydrological and energy cycle, respectively. Fully modeling the Earth's climate and improving weather and climate forecasts requires accurate satellite measurements of various cloud properties at the temporal and spatial scales of cloud processes. These properties include cloud horizontal and vertical structure, cloud water content and some measure of particle sizes and shapes. The uncertainty in knowledge of these ice characteristics is reflected in the large discrepancies in model simulations of the upper tropospheric water budget. Model simulations are sensitive to the partition of ice between precipitation and outflow processes, i.e., to the parameterization of ice clouds and ice processes. One barrier to achieving accurate global ice cloud properties is the lack of adequate observations at millimeter and submillimeter wavelengths (183-874 GHz). Recent advances in instrumentation have allowed for the development and implementation of an airborne submillimeter-wave radiometer. The brightness temperatures at these frequencies are especially sensitive to cirrus ice particle sizes (because they are comparable to the wavelength). This allows for more accurate ice water path estimates when multiple channels are used to probe into the cloud layers. Further, submillimeter wavelengths offer simplicity in the retrieval algorithms because they do not probe into the liquid and near surface portions of clouds, thus requiring only one term of the radiative transfer equation (ice scattering) to relate brightness temperatures to ice. The next step is a satellite mission designed to acquire global Earth radiance measurements in the submillimeter-wave region, thus bridging the measurement gap between microwave sounders and shorter-wavelength infrared and visible sensors. This presentation provides scientific justification and an approach to measuring ice water path and particle size from a satellite platform that spans a range encompassing both the hydrologically active and radiatively active components of cloud systems.

Ackerman, S.↗

Composition, Structure and Evolution of Uranian and Neptunian Satellites

Large uncertainties in the current estimated densities of all of these satellites prevent detailed modeling or predictions. Nevertheless, current evidence suggests that at least Titania and Oberon might have anomalously high densities of 2-39 cm(-3), possibly requiring almost ice-free hydrated silicates or formation in a CO-rich environment, implying presence of CO-clathrate and a small ice/rock ratio. Trition and the four largest satellites of Uranus are massive enough to have undergone significant accretional heating and early differentiation; NH3-H2O volcanism; partial outgassing of CO, N2, Ch4; formation of dark surficial deposits of carbon-rich material obtained by UV irradiation of outgassed material; and, at least in the cases of Ariel and Triton, a possibility of weak ongoing icy volcanic activity. Triton may be the largest captured body in the solar system, with an unusual history and composition, including the possibility of substantial liquid or solid nitrogen obtained from either primordial NH3 photolysis or clathrate decomposition.

Stevenson, D. J.↗

Control Oriented Modeling and Validation of Aeroservoelastic Systems

Lightweight aircraft design emphasizes the reduction of structural weight to maximize aircraft efficiency and agility at the cost of increasing the likelihood of structural dynamic instabilities. To ensure flight safety, extensive flight testing and active structural servo control strategies are required to explore and expand the boundary of the flight envelope. Aeroservoelastic (ASE) models can provide online flight monitoring of dynamic instabilities to reduce flight time testing and increase flight safety. The success of ASE models is determined by the ability to take into account varying flight conditions and the possibility to perform flight monitoring under the presence of active structural servo control strategies. In this continued study, these aspects are addressed by developing specific methodologies and algorithms for control relevant robust identification and model validation of aeroservoelastic structures. The closed-loop model robust identification and model validation are based on a fractional model approach where the model uncertainties are characterized in a closed-loop relevant way.

Crowder, Marianne↗

Probabilistic Design Methodology and its Application to the Design of an Umbilical Retract Mechanism

A lot has been learned from past experience with structural and machine element failures. The understanding of failure modes and the application of an appropriate design analysis method can lead to improved structural and machine element safety as well as serviceability. To apply Probabilistic Design Methodology (PDM), all uncertainties are modeled as random variables with selected distribution types, means, and standard deviations. It is quite difficult to achieve a robust design without considering the randomness of the design parameters which is the case in the use of the Deterministic Design Approach. The US Navy has a fleet of submarine-launched ballistic missiles. An umbilical plug joins the missile to the submarine in order to provide electrical and cooling water connections. As the missile leaves the submarine, an umbilical retract mechanism retracts the umbilical plug clear of the advancing missile after disengagement during launch and retrains the plug in the retracted position. The design of the current retract mechanism in use was based on the deterministic approach which puts emphasis on factor of safety. A new umbilical retract mechanism that is simpler in design, lighter in weight, more reliable, easier to adjust, and more cost effective has become desirable since this will increase the performance and efficiency of the system. This paper reports on a recent project performed at Tennessee State University for the US Navy that involved the application of PDM to the design of an umbilical retract mechanism. This paper demonstrates how the use of PDM lead to the minimization of weight and cost, and the maximization of reliability and performance.

Onyebueke, Landon↗

The Influence of Boundary Layer Parameters on Interior Noise

Predictions of the wall pressure in the turbulent boundary of an aerospace vehicle can differ substantially from measurement due to phenomena that are not well understood. Characterizing the phenomena will require additional testing at considerable cost. Before expending scarce resources, it is desired to quantify the effect of the uncertainty in wall pressure predictions and measurements on structural response and acoustic radiation. A sensitivity analysis is performed on four parameters of the Corcos cross spectrum model: power spectrum, streamwise and cross stream coherence lengths and Mach number. It is found that at lower frequencies where high power levels and long coherence lengths exist, the radiated sound power prediction has up to 7 dB of uncertainty in power spectrum levels with streamwise and cross stream coherence lengths contributing equally to the total.

Palumbo, Daniel L.↗

Arctic Amplification: Process Drivers and Sources of Uncertainty

Arctic amplification (AA) is a coupled atmosphere-sea ice-ocean process. This understanding has evolved from the early concept of AA, as a consequence of snow ice line progressions, through more than a century of research that has clarified the relevant processes and driving mechanisms of AA. The predictions made by early modeling studies, namely the fall/winter maximum, bottom-heavy structure, the prominence of surface albedo feedback, and the importance of stable stratification have withstood the scrutiny of multi-decadal observations and more complex models. Yet, the uncertainty in Arctic climate projections is larger than in any other region of the planet, making the assessment of high-impact, near-term regional changes difficult or impossible. Reducing this large spread in Arctic climate projections requires a quantitative process understanding. This presentation synthesizes current knowledge of AA and describes a set of recommendations to guide future research. It briefly reviews the history of AA science, summarizes observed Arctic changes, discusses modeling approaches and feedback diagnostics, and assesses the current understanding of the most relevant feedbacks to AA. These sections culminate in a conceptual model of the fundamental physical mechanisms causing AA and a collection of recommendations to accelerate progress towards reduced uncertainty in Arctic climate projections. Our conceptual model highlights the need to account for local feedback and remote process interactions within the context of the annual cycle to constrain projected AA.

Patrick C Taylor↗

Calibration of Predictor Models Using Multiple Validation Experiments

This paper presents a framework for calibrating computational models using data from several and possibly dissimilar validation experiments. The offset between model predictions and observations, which might be caused by measurement noise, model-form uncertainty, and numerical error, drives the process by which uncertainty in the models parameters is characterized. The resulting description of uncertainty along with the computational model constitute a predictor model. Two types of predictor models are studied: Interval Predictor Models (IPMs) and Random Predictor Models (RPMs). IPMs use sets to characterize uncertainty, whereas RPMs use random vectors. The propagation of a set through a model makes the response an interval valued function of the state, whereas the propagation of a random vector yields a random process. Optimization-based strategies for calculating both types of predictor models are proposed. Whereas the formulations used to calculate IPMs target solutions leading to the interval value function of minimal spread containing all observations, those for RPMs seek to maximize the models' ability to reproduce the distribution of observations. Regarding RPMs, we choose a structure for the random vector (i.e., the assignment of probability to points in the parameter space) solely dependent on the prediction error. As such, the probabilistic description of uncertainty is not a subjective assignment of belief, nor is it expected to asymptotically converge to a fixed value, but instead it casts the model's ability to reproduce the experimental data. This framework enables evaluating the spread and distribution of the predicted response of target applications depending on the same parameters beyond the validation domain.

Crespo, Luis G.↗

Radiation from accreting magnetized neutron stars

Some recent development on the understanding of accreting magnetized neutron stars are reviewed. A brief summary of the observations is given, on which current phenomenological models are based. The main part of this paper is a discussion of recent work by several groups on the radiative transfer problem in a strong magnetic field and its application to models of the structure and properties of self-consistent neutron star polar cap emission regions. The assumptions and uncertainties involved are discussed, recent progress is evaluated, and current and future problems are indicated.

Meszaros, P.↗

Control of elastic robotic systems by nonlinear inversion and modal damping

Energy efficient, lightweight robot arms for space applications have considerable structural flexibility. For large and fast motions, both the nonlinear coupled dynamics and the elastic behavior of the robots must be considered in control system designs. This paper presents an approach to the control of a class of flexible robotic systems. A control law is derived which decouples the joint-angle motion from the flexible motion and asymptotically decomposes the elastic dynamics into two subsystems, representing the transverse vibrations of the elastic link in two orthogonal planes. This decomposition allows the design of an elastic mode stabilizer independently based on lower order models representing structural flexibility. The closed-loop system is shown to be globally asymptotically stable and robust to uncertainty in system parameters. Simulation results are presented to show that large, fast control of joint angles can be performed in spite of space vehicle motion and uncertainty in the payload.

Singh, S. N.↗

On-Line Mu Method for Robust Flutter Prediction in Expanding a Safe Flight Envelope for an Aircraft Model Under Flight Test

A structured singular value (mu) analysis method of computing flutter margins has robust stability of a linear aeroelastic model with uncertainty operators (Delta). Flight data is used to update the uncertainty operators to accurately account for errors in the computed model and the observed range of aircraft dynamics of the aircraft under test caused by time-varying aircraft parameters, nonlinearities, and flight anomalies, such as test nonrepeatability. This mu-based approach computes predict flutter margins that are worst case with respect to the modeling uncertainty for use in determining when the aircraft is approaching a flutter condition and defining an expanded safe flight envelope for the aircraft that is accepted with more confidence than traditional methods that do not update the analysis algorithm with flight data by introducing mu as a flutter margin parameter that presents several advantages over tracking damping trends as a measure of a tendency to instability from available flight data.

Lind, Richard C.↗

Cosmic Infrared Background and Early Galaxy Evolution

The cosmic infrared background (CIB) reflects the sum total of galactic luminosities integrated over the entire age of the universe. From its measurement the red-shifted starlight and dust-absorbed and re-radiated starlight of the CIB can be used to determine (or constrain) the rates of star formation and metal production as a function of time and deduce information about objects at epochs currently inaccessible to telescopic studies. This review discusses the state of current CIB measurements and the (mostly space-based) instruments with which these measurements have been made, the obstacles (the various foreground emissions) and the physics behind the CIB and its structure. Theoretical discussion of the CIB levels can now be normalized to the standard cosmological model narrowing down theoretical uncertainties. We review the information behind and theoretical modeling of both the mean (isotropic) levels of the CIB and their fluctuations. The CIB is divided into three broad bands: near-IR (NIR), mid-IR (MIR) and far-IR (FIR). For each of the bands we review the main contributors to the CIB flux and the epochs at which the bulk of the flux originates. We also discuss the data on the various quantities relevant for correct interpretation of the CIB levels: the star-formation history, the present-day luminosity function measurements, resolving the various galaxy contributors to the CIB, etc. The integrated light of all galaxies in the deepest NIR galaxy counts to date fails to match the observed mean level of the CIB, probably indicating a significant high-redshift contribution to the CIB. Additionally, Population III stars should have left a strong and measurable signature via their contribution to the CIB anisotropies for a wide range of their formation scenarios, and measuring the excess CIB anisotropies coming from high z would provide direct information on the epoch of the first stars.

Kashlinsky, Alexander↗

Follow on Researches for X-56A Aircraft at NASA Dryden Flight Research Center (Progress Report)

A lot of composite materials are used for the modern aircraft to reduce its weight. Aircraft aeroservoelastic models are typically characterized by significant levels of model parameter uncertainty due to composite manufacturing process. Small modeling errors in the finite element model will eventually induce errors in the structural flexibility and mass, thus propagating into unpredictable errors in the unsteady aerodynamics and the control law design. One of the primary objectives of X-56A aircraft is the flight demonstration of active flutter suppression, and therefore in this study, the identification of the primary and secondary modes is based on the flutter analysis of X-56A aircraft. It should be noted that for all three Mach number cases rigid body modes and mode numbers seven and nine are participated 89.1 92.4 % of the first flutter mode. Modal participation of the rigid body mode and mode numbers seven and nine for the second flutter mode are 94.6 96.4%. Rigid body mode and the first two anti-symmetric modes, eighth and tenth modes, are participated 93.2 94.6% of the third flutter mode. Therefore, rigid body modes and the first four flexible modes of X-56A aircraft are the primary modes during the model tuning procedure. The ground vibration test-validated structural dynamic finite element model of the X-56A aircraft is to obtain in this study. The structural dynamics finite element model of X-56A aircraft is improved using the parallelized big-bang big-crunch algorithm together with a hybrid optimization technique.

Structural Dynamic Model Tuning↗

Theory on the uncertainty in cloud microphysical processes and climate

The interactive role of clouds and precipitation processes in a climate model is investigated. The basic model structure and parameterizations for condensation, evaporation, and precipitation are outlined. Results simulated from the cloud-climate model are discussed. The potential link between microphysical cloud processes and climate is theorized. The need to develop a climatology of the mean particle radius for clouds at the global scale, in order to understand the role of clouds in climate is stressed.

Liou, Kuo-Nan↗

GRAIL Refinements to Lunar Seismic Structure

The present ]day internal structure of the Moon provides insight not only into its own formation and evolution, but also that of all rocky planetary bodies. The most direct way to probe a planet fs interior structure is through seismology. As part of the Apollo lunar missions, four seismometers were deployed on the nearside surface of the Moon between the years 1969 and 1972. These instruments operated continuously until 1977, forming the only substantial extraterrestrial seismic data set in existence. These data have been used to constrain various aspects of the seismic velocity and density structure of the Moon. Typical 1-D models recognize a 30-60 km thick crust overlying a nearly constant ]velocity mantle, and extend to a depth of approximately 1000 km, below which the lack of penetrating moonquake ray ]paths precludes the seismic determination of deeper structure. Previously, the lack of observed moonquakes from the far side of the Moon has been used to infer the presence of a highly attenuating (possibly molten) core. Indirect geophysical measurements such as moment of inertia, magnetic induction, lunar laser ranging, and elemental abundances of mare basalts also place varying constraints on core size and state. In combination with seismic studies, these indirect measurements have been used to arrive at a commonly accepted model of the Moon's deepest interior that includes a solid inner and fluid outer core, overlain by a partial melt boundary layer. We recently applied modern array seismology techniques to the Apollo data and revealed detailed core structure, including the first direct confirmation of the presence of a solid inner core. Our study focused on the identification of core ]reflected phases in deep moonquake seismograms. The resulting model of the Moon fs innermost structure was found to be consistent with the commonly accepted model. However, the modeled layer radii may vary by tens of kilometers, as is expected when accounting for uncertainties such as moonquake location, timing errors, and potential seismic heterogeneities. In addition, the modeled velocities may vary with a 1-to-1 trade ]off with the modeled reflector depth. The GRAIL (Gravity Recovery and Interior Laboratory) mission, launched in Sept. 2011, placed two nearly identical spacecraft in lunar orbit. The two satellites make extremely high-resolution measurements of the lunar gravity field, which can be used to constrain the interior structure of the Moon using a "crust to core" approach. GRAIL fs constraints on crustal thickness, mantle structure, core radius and stratification, and core state (solid vs. molten) will complement seismic investigations in several ways. Here we present a progress report on our efforts to advance our knowledge of the Moon fs internal structure using joint gravity and seismic analyses. We will focus on methodology, including 1) refinements to the seismic core constraint accomplished through array processing of Apollo seismic data, made by applying a set of travel time corrections based on GRAIL structure estimates local to each Apollo seismic station; 2) modeling deep lunar structure through synthetic seismograms, to test whether the seismic core model can reproduce the core reflections observed in the Apollo seismograms; and 3) a joint seismic and gravity inversion in which we attempt to fit a family of seismic structure models with the gravity constraints from GRAIL, resulting in maps of seismic velocities and densities that vary from a nominal model both laterally and with depth.

Weber, Renee↗

Practical aspects of a maximum likelihood estimation method to extract stability and control derivatives from flight data

A maximum likelihood estimation method was applied to flight data and procedures to facilitate the routine analysis of a large amount of flight data were described. Techniques that can be used to obtain stability and control derivatives from aircraft maneuvers that are less than ideal for this purpose are described. The techniques involve detecting and correcting the effects of dependent or nearly dependent variables, structural vibration, data drift, inadequate instrumentation, and difficulties with the data acquisition system and the mathematical model. The use of uncertainty levels and multiple maneuver analysis also proved to be useful in improving the quality of the estimated coefficients. The procedures used for editing the data and for overall analysis are also discussed.

Iliff, K. W.↗

Prominence Structure and Dynamics

Nonerupting prominences are not dull, static objects. Rather, they are composed of fine-scale blobs and threads that are highly dynamic, often appearing to travel in opposite directions on adjacent tracks (denoted counterstreaming). Because the plasma is largely constrained to travel along the magnetic field, these cool, dense features can serve as tracers of the prominence magnetic structure, a valuable resource in view of the long-standing difficulty of observing the coronal field. Conversely, greater understanding of the fundamental magnetic geometry of filament channels can provide important constraints on the physical processes governing the accumulation, support, motion, and eruption of the cool plasma. Despite over a century of detailed observations, large gaps remain in our knowledge of filament channel/plasma formation and evolution. Resolving these issues will shed light on the physics of coronal heating, helicity transport throughout the solar cycle, and the origins of eruptive activity on the Sun. I will discuss the leading models for the magnetic and plasma structure, and outline how new observations and theory /modeling could solve long-standing uncertainties regarding this majestic solar phenomenon.

Karpen, Judy T.↗

Follow on Research for Multi-Utility Technology Test Bed Aircraft at NASA Dryden Flight Research Center (FY13 Progress Report)

Modern aircraft employ a significant fraction of their weight in composite materials to reduce weight and improve performance. Aircraft aeroservoelastic models are typically characterized by significant levels of model parameter uncertainty due to the composite manufacturing process. Small modeling errors in the finite element model will eventually induce errors in the structural flexibility and mass, thus propagating into unpredictable errors in the unsteady aerodynamics and the control law design. One of the primary objectives of Multi Utility Technology Test-bed (MUTT) aircraft is the flight demonstration of active flutter suppression, and therefore in this study, the identification of the primary and secondary modes for the structural model tuning based on the flutter analysis of MUTT aircraft. The ground vibration test-validated structural dynamic finite element model of the MUTT aircraft is created in this study. The structural dynamic finite element model of MUTT aircraft is improved using the in-house Multi-disciplinary Design, Analysis, and Optimization tool. In this study, two different weight configurations of MUTT aircraft have been improved simultaneously in a single model tuning procedure.

multi-utility technology test bed aircraft↗

Variable Complexity Optimization of Composite Structures

The use of several levels of modeling in design has been dubbed variable complexity modeling. The work under the grant focused on developing variable complexity modeling strategies with emphasis on response surface techniques. Applications included design of plates with discontinuities subject to uncertainty in material properties and geometry, design of stiffened composite plates for improved damage tolerance, and the use of response surfaces for fitting weights obtained by structural optimization.

Haftka, Raphael T.↗