Applying a predictive modeling methodology to a radiation transport inverse problem - 25588
In this paper, the predictive modeling of coupled multiphysics systems (PM-CMPS) procedure, developed by Cacuci and embodied in the software package MULTIPRED, has been applied to determine unknown parameters of a radioactive system from its gamma-ray and neutron signature. PM-CMPS has been integrated in two different ways with the inverse transport code INVERSE to determine the parameters. The first uses PM-CMPS in the inverse mode to directly estimate the parameters while the second mode uses a traditional nonlinear optimization routine and has PMCMPS complete a final iteration to estimate the uncertainty in the parameter best estimates. A test problem has been created and used to test both methods for varying numbers and types of responses and parameters. The first method was capable of accurately determining parameters but had a number of drawbacks. The second method functioned well at determining the correct parameter values in cases with limited numbers of parameters. (authors)