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NASA thesaurus combined file postings statistics

The NASA Thesaurus Combined File Postings Statistics is published semiannually (January and July). This alphabetical listing of postable subject terms contained in the NASA Thesaurus is used to display the number of postings (documents) indexed by each subject term from 1968 to date. The postings totals per item are separated by announcement of other media into STAR, IAA, COSMIC, and OTHER, columnar entries covering the NASA document collection (1968 to date). This is a cumulative publication, and except for special cases, no reference is needed to previous issuances. Retention of the January 1992 issue could be helpful for book information. With the July 1992 issue, NALNET book statistics have been replaced by COSMIC statistics for NASA funded software. File postings statistics for the Alternate Data Base covering NASA collection from 1962 through 1967 were published on a one-time basis in September 1975. Subject terms for the Alternate Data Base are derived from the subject Authority List, reprinted 1985, which is available upon request. The distribution of 19,697,748 postings among the 17,446 NASA Thesaurus terms is tabulated on the last page of the NASA Thesaurus Combined File Postings Statistics.

Source record↗

The Mars Pathfinder Mission and Science Results

Mars Pathfinder, the first low-cost, quick Discovery class mission to be completed, successfully landed on the surface of Mars on July 4, 1997, deployed and navigated a small rover, and collected data from 3 science instruments and 10 technology experiments. The mission operated on Mars for 3 months and returned 2.3 Gbits of new data, including over 16,500 lander and 550 rover images, 16 chemical analyses of rocks and soil, and 8.5 million individual temperature, pressure and wind measurements. The rover traversed 100 m clockwise around the lander, exploring about 200 square meters of the surface. The mission captured the imagination of the public, and garnered front page headlines during the first week. A total of about 566 million internet "hits" were registered during the first month of the mission, with 47 million "hits" on July 8th alone, making the Pathfinder landing by far the largest internet event in history at the time. Pathfinder was the first mission to deploy a rover on Mars. It carried a chemical analysis instrument, to characterize the rocks and soils in a landing area over hundreds of square meters on Mars, which provided a calibration point or "ground truth" for orbital remote sensing observations. The combination of spectral imaging of the landing area by the lander camera, chemical analyses aboard the rover, and close-up imaging of colors, textures and fabrics with the rover cameras offered the potential of identifying rocks (petrology and mineralogy). With this payload, a landing site in Ares Vallis was selected because it appeared acceptably safe and offered the prospect of analyzing a variety of rock types expected to be deposited by catastrophic floods, which enabled addressing first-order scientific questions such as differentiation of the crust, the development of weathering products, and the nature of the early Martian environment and its subsequent evolution. The 3 instruments and rover allowed seven areas of scientific investigation: the geology and geomorphology of the surface, mineralogy and geochemistry of rocks and soils, physical properties of surface materials, magnetic properties of airborne dust, atmospheric science including aerosols, and rotational and orbital dynamics of Mars. Scientists were assembled into 7 Science Operations Groups that were responsible for requesting measurements by the 3 instruments, rover and engineering subsystems for carrying out their scientific investigations and for analyzing the data and reporting on their findings. The spacecraft was launched on December 4, 1996 and had a 7 month cruise to Mars, with four trajectory correction maneuvers. The vehicle entered the atmosphere directly following cruise stage separation. Parachute deployment, heatshield and lander separation, radar ground acquisition, airbag inflation and rocket ignition all occurred before landing at 2:58 AM true local solar time (9:56:55 AM PDT). The lander bounced at least 15 times up to 12 in high without airbag rupture, demonstrating the robustness of this landing system. Reconstruction of the final landing sequence indicates that the parachute/backshel1/1ander was tilted due to a northwest directed wind and wind shear, which resulted in the lander bouncing about I km to the northwest and initially downhill about 20 m from where the solid rockets fired. Two anomalously bright spots located in the lander scene are likely the heatshield, which continued in a ballistic trajectory about 2 km downrange (west southwest), and the backshell/parachute, which stayed nearer to where the rockets fired. Unconnected disturbed soil patches in the scene indicate that the final few bounces of the lander were from the east-southeast and were followed by a gentle roll to the west before coming to rest on the base petal. The location of the lander away from where the solid rockets fired and considerations of the exhaust products used to inflate the airbags and their fate, indicate that the Pathfinder landing system is one of the cleanest designed leaving the local area essentially contaminant free. The radio signal from the low-=gain antenna was received at 11:34 AM PDT indicating a successful landing.

Golombek, M. P.↗

The In-flight Spectroscopic Performance of the Swift XRT CCD Camera During 2006-2007

The Swift X-ray Telescope focal plane camera is a front-illuminated MOS CCD, providing a spectral response kernel of 135 eV FWHM at 5.9 keV as measured before launch. We describe the CCD calibration program based on celestial and on-board calibration sources, relevant in-flight experiences, and developments in the CCD response model. We illustrate how the revised response model describes the calibration sources well. Comparison of observed spectra with models folded through the instrument response produces negative residuals around and below the Oxygen edge. We discuss several possible causes for such residuals. Traps created by proton damage on the CCD increase the charge transfer inefficiency (CTI) over time. We describe the evolution of the CTI since the launch and its effect on the CCD spectral resolution and the gain.

Godet, O.↗

AutoGen Version 5.0

Version 5.0 of the AutoGen software has been released. Previous versions, variously denoted Autogen and autogen, were reported in two articles: Automated Sequence Generation Process and Software (NPO-30746), Software Tech Briefs (Special Supplement to NASA Tech Briefs), September 2007, page 30, and Autogen Version 2.0 (NPO- 41501), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 31, No. 10 (October 2007), page 58. To recapitulate: AutoGen (now signifying automatic sequence generation ) automates the generation of sequences of commands in a standard format for uplink to spacecraft. AutoGen requires fewer workers than are needed for older manual sequence-generation processes, and greatly reduces sequence-generation times. The sequences are embodied in spacecraft activity sequence files (SASFs). AutoGen automates generation of SASFs by use of another previously reported program called APGEN. AutoGen encodes knowledge of different mission phases and of how the resultant commands must differ among the phases. AutoGen also provides means for customizing sequences through use of configuration files. The approach followed in developing AutoGen has involved encoding the behaviors of a system into a model and encoding algorithms for context-sensitive customizations of the modeled behaviors. This version of AutoGen addressed the MRO (Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter) primary science phase (PSP) mission phase. On previous Mars missions this phase has more commonly been referred to as mapping phase. This version addressed the unique aspects of sequencing orbital operations and specifically the mission specific adaptation of orbital operations for MRO. This version also includes capabilities for MRO s role in Mars relay support for UHF relay communications with the MER rovers and the Phoenix lander.

Gladden, Roy E.↗

Collaborative Resource Allocation

Collaborative Resource Allocation Networking Environment (CRANE) Version 0.5 is a prototype created to prove the newest concept of using a distributed environment to schedule Deep Space Network (DSN) antenna times in a collaborative fashion. This program is for all space-flight and terrestrial science project users and DSN schedulers to perform scheduling activities and conflict resolution, both synchronously and asynchronously. Project schedulers can, for the first time, participate directly in scheduling their tracking times into the official DSN schedule, and negotiate directly with other projects in an integrated scheduling system. A master schedule covers long-range, mid-range, near-real-time, and real-time scheduling time frames all in one, rather than the current method of separate functions that are supported by different processes and tools. CRANE also provides private workspaces (both dynamic and static), data sharing, scenario management, user control, rapid messaging (based on Java Message Service), data/time synchronization, workflow management, notification (including emails), conflict checking, and a linkage to a schedule generation engine. The data structure with corresponding database design combines object trees with multiple associated mortal instances and relational database to provide unprecedented traceability and simplify the existing DSN XML schedule representation. These technologies are used to provide traceability, schedule negotiation, conflict resolution, and load forecasting from real-time operations to long-range loading analysis up to 20 years in the future. CRANE includes a database, a stored procedure layer, an agent-based middle tier, a Web service wrapper, a Windows Integrated Analysis Environment (IAE), a Java application, and a Web page interface.

Wang, Yeou-Fang↗

City and County Vehicle Inventories

This light-duty vehicle inventory dataset provides information on vehicle registrations by vehicle type (car vs. truck), fuel type, and model year showing the changes in adoption trends over time and average fuel economies. This data is part of a suite of state and local energy profile data available at the "State and Local Energy Profile Data Suite" link below and builds on Cities-LEAP energy modeling, available at the "EERE Cities-LEAP Page" link below. Examples of how to use the data to inform energy planning can be found at the "Example Uses" link below.

Alternative Fuel↗

Kilopixel Pop-Up Bolometer Arrays for the Atacama Cosmology Telescope

The recently deployed Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) anticipates first light on its kilopixel array of close-packed transition-edge-sensor bolometers in November of 2007. The instrument will represent a full implementation of the next-generation, large format arrays for millimeter wave astronomy that use superconducting electronics and detectors. Achieving the practical construction of such an array is a significant step toward producing advanced detector arrays for future SOFIA instruments. We review the design considerations for the detector array produced for the ACT instrument. The first light imager consists of 32 separately instrumented 32-channel pop-up bolometer arrays (to create a 32x32 filled array of mm-wave sensors). Each array is instrumented with a 32-channel bias resistor array, Nyquist filter array, and time-division SQUID multiplexer. Each component needed to be produced in relatively large quantities with suitable uniformity to meet tolerances for array operation. An optical design was chosen to maximize absorption at the focal plane while mitigating reflections and stray light. The pop-up geometry (previously implemented with semiconducting detectors and readout on the SHARC II and HAWC instruments) enabled straightforward interface of the superconducting bias and readout circuit with the 2D array of superconducting bolometers. The array construction program balanced fabrication challenges with assembly challenges to deliver the instrument in a timely fashion. We present some of the results of the array build and characterization of its performance.

Chervenak, J. A.↗

Damp Heat Degradation of Polycrystalline Silicon Passivated Contacts

After 1000 hours of damp heat exposure at 85% humidity and 85 C, LPCVD n-poly and p-poly are stable for both metallized and non-metallized regions whereas for PECVD, only n-poly is stable; PECVD p-poly suffers significant degradation and defects became more pronounced with exposure time; and PECVD p-poly degrades more than LPCVD p-poly with or without additional dielectric layers (i.e., SiNx + Al2O3 stack).

damp heat degradation↗

Tool for Two Types of Friction Stir Welding

A tool that would be useable in both conventional and self-reacting friction stir welding (FSW) has been proposed. The tool would embody both a prior tooling concept for self-reacting FSW and an auto-adjustable pin-tool (APT) capability developed previously as an augmentation for conventional FSW. Some definitions of terms are prerequisite to a meaningful description of the proposed tool. In conventional FSW, depicted in Figure 1, one uses a tool that includes (1) a rotating shoulder on top (or front) of the workpiece and (2) a rotating pin that protrudes from the shoulder into the depth of the workpiece. The main axial force exerted by the tool on the workpiece is reacted through a ridged backing anvil under (behind) the workpiece. When conventional FSW is augmented with an APT capability, the depth of penetration of the pin into the workpiece is varied in real time by a position- or force-control system that extends or retracts the pin as needed to obtain the desired effect. In self-reacting (also known as self-reacted) friction stir welding (SR-FSW), there are two rotating shoulders: one on top (or front) and one on the bottom (or back) of the workpiece. In this case, a threaded shaft protrudes from the tip of the pin to beyond the back surface of the workpiece. The back shoulder is held axially in place against tension by a nut on the threaded shaft. The main axial force exerted on the workpiece by the tool and front shoulder is reacted through the back shoulder and the threaded shaft, back into the FSW machine head, so that a backing anvil is no longer needed. A key transmits torque between the bottom shoulder and the threaded shaft, so that the bottom shoulder rotates with the shaft. A tool for SRFSW embodying this concept was reported in "Mechanism for Self-Reacted Friction Stir Welding" (MFS-31914), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 28, No. 10 (October 2004), page 53. In its outward appearance, the proposed tool (see Figure 2) would fit the above description of an SR-FSW tool. In this case, the FSW machine would have an APT capability and the pin would be modified to accept a bottom shoulder. The APT capability could be used to vary the distance between the front and back shoulders in real time to accommodate process and workpiece-thickness variations. The tool could readily be converted to a conventional FSW tool, with or without APT capability, by simply replacing the modified pin with a conventional FSW pin.

Carter, Robert↗

IM3/HyperFACETS Thermodynamic Global Warming (TGW) Simulation Datasets

Publication For a thorough description of the methods, see the peer-reviewed paper: Jones, A.D., Rastogi, D., Vahmani, P. et al. Continental United States climate projections based on thermodynamic modification of historical weather. Sci Data 10, 664 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-023-02485-5 Overview The IM3 / HyperFACETS climate simulations provide 40-year historical (1980-2019) as well as four 80-year future simulations (2020-2099) over the U.S. The future simulations are split into near (2020-2059) and far future (2060-2099) segments. The future scenarios span a range of plausible changes in future climate (both Global Circulation Model (GCM) and Representative Concentration Pathways/Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (RCP/SSP) dimensions). The simulations provide climate variables with high spatiotemporal resolution (25 hourly variables and 207 3-hourly variables at 12 km2). The datasets are generated using dynamical downscaling with the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) model (version 4.2.1) and therefore preserve physical consistency across variables. WRF is a state-of-the-art, fully compressible, non-hydrostatic, mesoscale numerical weather prediction model. WRF is coupled with an urban canopy model (UCM), which resolves urban surfaces. The future scenarios were developed using a thermodynamic global warming approach where past events are replayed under a range of future warming conditions. These scenarios therefore provide a perspective on potential increases in extreme event intensity, geographic scope, and duration, with previously non-extreme conditions potentially crossing new thresholds to be considered extreme by today's standards. This approach is not intended to estimate future changes in extreme event frequency that might result from changes in large-scale atmospheric dynamics. This dataset has NOT been bias corrected. A bias corrected version of selected variables is under development and will be released here when available. Scenarios Files Data for each scenario is provided in weekly NetCDF files. 25 variables are available at hourly resolution, and 207 variables are available at three-hourly resolution. Spatial resolution is 12km and spans the conterminous United States (CONUS), including some areas of Canada and Mexico, resulting in a grid of 424 by 299 cells. The spatial projection is a Lambert Conformal Conic with the following proj-string: "+proj=lcc +lat_0=40.0000076293945 +lon_0=-97 +lat_1=30 +lat_2=45 +x_0=0 +y_0=0 +R=6370000 +units=m +no_defs". The available scenarios and simulation periods are listed below: historical | 1980 - 2019 rcp45cooler | 2020 - 2059 rcp45cooler | 2060 - 2099 rcp45hotter | 2020 - 2059 rcp45hotter | 2060 - 2099 rcp85cooler | 2020 - 2059 rcp85cooler | 2060 - 2099 rcp85hotter | 2020 - 2059 rcp85hotter | 2060 - 2099 * The first year (1979, 2019, and 2059) of data within each scenario represents a model warmup period and should not be used. These are located in the `spinup_files` directory. Historical year 2020 is considered an extra year of data beyond the simulation period and can be found in the `additional_files` directory. For information on specific variables and a more in-depth discussion of methodology, please refer to the data landing page at https://tgw-data.msdlive.org. Delta Warming Files The global and CONUS warming deltas for each scenario are provided in degrees Celsius annually and monthly. Restart Files Yearly restart files are provided for each scenario which can be used to restart the WRF model at a particular point in time. Spinup Files The first year of data within each simulation period represents a model warmup period and should not be used. The files are provided here for the sake of reproducibility. Additional Files Additional years of data are provided as an extension of the historic simulation.

Jones, Andrew D.↗

Apparatus Characterizes Transient Voltages in Real Time

The figure shows a prototype of a relatively inexpensive electronic monitoring apparatus that measures and records selected parameters of lightning-induced transient voltages on communication and power cables. The selected parameters, listed below, are those most relevant to the ability of lightning-induced transients to damage electronic equipment. This apparatus bridges a gap between some traditional transient-voltage recorders that record complete waveforms and other traditional transient-voltage recorders that record only peak values: By recording the most relevant parameters and only those parameters this apparatus yields more useful information than does a traditional peak-value (only) recorder while imposing much smaller data-storage and data-transmission burdens than does a traditional complete-waveform recorder. Also, relative to a complete-waveform recorder, this apparatus is more reliable and can be built at lower cost because it contains fewer electronic components. The transients generated by sources other than lightning tend to have frequency components well below 1 MHz. Most commercial transient recorders can detect and record such transients, but cannot respond rapidly enough for recording lightning-induced transient voltage peaks, which can rise from 10 to 90 percent of maximum amplitude in a fraction of a microsecond. Moreover, commercial transient recorders cannot rearm themselves rapidly enough to respond to the multiple transients that occur within milliseconds of each other on some lightning strikes. One transient recorder, designed for Kennedy Space Center earlier [ Fast Transient-Voltage Recorder (KSC- 11991), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 23, No. 10, page 6a (October 1999)], is capable of sampling transient voltages at peak values up to 50 V in four channels at a rate of 20 MHz. That recorder contains a trigger circuit that continuously compares the amplitudes of the signals on four channels to a preset triggering threshold. When a trigger signal is received, a volatile memory is filled with data for a total time of 200 ms. After the data are transferred to nonvolatile memory, the recorder rearms itself within 400 ms to enable recording of subsequent transients. Unfortunately, the recorded data must be retrieved through a serial communication link. Depending on the amount of data recorded, the memory can be filled before retrieval is completed. Although large amounts of data are recorded and retrieved, only a small part of the information (the selected parameters) is usually required. The present transient-voltage recorder provides the required information, without incurring the overhead associated with the recording, storage, and retrieval of complete transient-waveform data. In operation, this apparatus processes transient voltage waveforms in real time to extract and record the selected parameters. An analog-to-digital converter that operates at a speed of as much as 100 mega-samples per second is used to sample a transient waveform. A real-time comparator and peak detector are implemented by use of fast field-programmable gate arrays.

Medelius, Pedro↗

The Atacama Cosmology Telescope: Detection of Millimeter-wave Transient Sources

Here we report on the serendipitous discovery of three transient millimeter-wave sources using data from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope. The first, detected at R.A. = 273.8138, decl. = -49.4628 at ~50σ total, brightened from less than 5 mJy to at least 1100 mJy at 150 GHz with an unknown rise time shorter than 13 days, during which the increase from 250 mJy to 1100 mJy took only 8 minutes. Maximum flux was observed on 2019 November 8. The source's spectral index in flux between 90-150 GHz was positive, α = 1.5 ± 0.2. The second, detected at R.A. = 105.1584, decl. = -11.2434 at ~20σ total, brightened from less than 20 mJy to at least 300 mJy at 150 GHz with an unknown rise time shorter than 8 days. Maximum flux was observed on 2019 December 15. Its spectral index was also positive, α = 1.8 ± 0.2. The third, detected at R.A. = 301.9952, decl. = 16.1652 at ~40σ total, brightened from less than 8 mJy to at least 300 mJy at 150 GHz over a day or less but decayed over a few days. Maximum flux was observed on 2018 September 11. Its spectrum was approximately flat, with a spectral index of α = -0.2 ± 0.1. None of the sources were polarized to the limits of these measurements. The two rising-spectrum sources are coincident in position with M and K stars, while the third is coincident with a G star.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Deep mitigation of CO 2 and non-CO 2 greenhouse gases toward 1.5 °C and 2 °C futures

Stabilizing climate change well below 2 °C and towards 1.5 °C requires comprehensive mitigation of all greenhouse gases (GHG), including both CO 2 and non-CO 2 GHG emissions. Here we incorporate the latest global non-CO 2 emissions and mitigation data into a state-of-the-art integrated assessment model GCAM and examine 90 mitigation scenarios pairing different levels of CO 2 and non-CO 2 GHG abatement pathways. We estimate that when non-CO 2 mitigation contributions are not fully implemented, the timing of net-zero CO 2 must occur about two decades earlier. Conversely, comprehensive GHG abatement that fully integrates non-CO 2 mitigation measures in addition to a net-zero CO 2 commitment can help achieve 1.5 °C stabilization. While decarbonization-driven fuel switching mainly reduces non-CO 2 emissions from fuel extraction and end use, targeted non-CO 2 mitigation measures can significantly reduce fluorinated gas emissions from industrial processes and cooling sectors. Our integrated modeling provides direct insights in how system-wide all GHG mitigation can affect the timing of net-zero CO 2 for 1.5 °C and 2 °C climate change scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A tactile-output paging communication system for the deaf-blind

A radio frequency paging communication system that has coded vibrotactile outputs suitable for use by deaf-blind people was developed. In concept, the system consists of a base station transmitting and receiving unit and many on-body transmitting and receiving units. The completed system has seven operating modes: fire alarm; time signal; repeated single character Morse code; manual Morse code; emergency aid request; operational status test; and message acknowledge. The on-body units can be addressed in three ways: all units; a group of units; or an individual unit. All the functions developed were integrated into a single package that can be worn on the user's wrist. The control portion of the on-body unit is implemented by a microcomputer. The microcomputer is packaged in a custom-designed hybrid circuit to reduce its physical size.

Baer, J. A.↗

Structures and Materials Experimental Facilities and Capabilities Catalog

The NASA Center of Excellent for Structures and Materials at Langley Research Center is responsible for conducting research and developing useable technology in the areas of advanced materials and processing technologies, durability, damage tolerance, structural concepts, advanced sensors, intelligent systems, aircraft ground operations, reliability, prediction tools, performance validation, aeroelastic response, and structural dynamics behavior for aerospace vehicles. Supporting the research activities is a complementary set of facilities and capabilities documented in this report. Because of the volume of information, the information collected was restricted in most cases to one page. Specific questions from potential customers or partners should be directed to the points of contacts provided with the various capabilities. Grouping of the equipment is by location as opposed to function. Geographical information of the various buildings housing the equipment is also provided. Since this is the first time that such an inventory is ever collected at Langley it is by no means complete. It is estimated that over 90 percent of the equipment capabilities at hand are included but equipment is continuously being updated and will be reported in the future.

Horta, Lucas G.↗

The coupled SYK model at finite temperature

Sachdev-Ye-Kitaev (SYK) model, which describes N randomly interacting Majorana fermions in 0+1 dimension, is found to be an solvable UV-complete toy model for holographic duality in nearly AdS 2 dilaton gravity. Ref. [1] proposed a modified model by coupling two identical SYK models, which at low-energy limit is dual to a global AdS 2 geometry. This geometry is an “eternal wormhole" because the two boundaries are causally connected. Increasing the temperature drives a Hawking-Page like transition from the eternal wormhole geometry to two disconnected black holes with coupled matter field. To gain more understanding of the coupled SYK model, in this work, we study the finite temperature spectral function of this system by numerical solving the Schwinger-Dyson equation in real-time. We find in the low-temperature phase the system is well described by weakly interacting fermions with renormalized single-particle gap, while in the high temperature phase the system is strongly interacting and the single-particle peaks merge. We also study the q dependence of the spectral function.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Accelerating Large Data Analysis By Exploiting Regularities

We present techniques for discovering and exploiting regularity in large curvilinear data sets. The data can be based on a single mesh or a mesh composed of multiple submeshes (also known as zones). Multi-zone data are typical to Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations. Regularities include axis-aligned rectilinear and cylindrical meshes as well as cases where one zone is equivalent to a rigid-body transformation of another. Our algorithms can also discover rigid-body motion of meshes in time-series data. Next, we describe a data model where we can utilize the results from the discovery process in order to accelerate large data visualizations. Where possible, we replace general curvilinear zones with rectilinear or cylindrical zones. In rigid-body motion cases we replace a time-series of meshes with a transformed mesh object where a reference mesh is dynamically transformed based on a given time value in order to satisfy geometry requests, on demand. The data model enables us to make these substitutions and dynamic transformations transparently with respect to the visualization algorithms. We present results with large data sets where we combine our mesh replacement and transformation techniques with out-of-core paging in order to achieve significant speed-ups in analysis.

Moran, Patrick J.↗

The MSFC Solar Activity Future Estimation (MSAFE) Model

The MSAFE model provides forecasts for the solar indices SSN, F10.7, and Ap. These solar indices are used as inputs to space environment models used in orbital spacecraft operations and space mission analysis. Forecasts from the MSAFE model are provided on the MSFC Natural Environments Branch's solar web page and are updated as new monthly observations become available. The MSAFE prediction routine employs a statistical technique that calculates deviations of past solar cycles from the mean cycle and performs a regression analysis to calculate the deviation from the mean cycle of the solar index at the next future time interval. The forecasts are initiated for a given cycle after about 8 to 9 monthly observations from the start of the cycle are collected. A forecast made at the beginning of cycle 24 using the MSAFE program captured the cycle fairly well with some difficulty in discerning the double peak that occurred at solar cycle maximum.

Suggs, Ron↗