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Optimizing Optical Searches for Supermassive Black Hole Binaries in Active Galactic Nuclei Light Curves: Fourier versus Bayesian Periodicity Detection

Simulations predict that supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHBs) will exhibit periodic brightness variations that may exceed the stochastic variability intrinsic to active galactic nuclei (AGN). In this paper, we simulate SMBHBs with damped random walk (DRW) AGN variability and an added sinusoidal signal from the orbital motion, and test three methods—a generalized Lomb–Scargle periodogram (GLSP), a nested Bayesian sampler (NBS), and a weighted wavelet z-transform (or WWZ)—to determine which is best at recovering the periodicity. Our simulated light curves follow the properties of the Catalina Real-Time Transient Survey (or CRTS), Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), and Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) to best inform current and future SMBHB searches. We map a broad range of parameter space and identify which DRW-only light curves best mimic periodicity and pass each method’s model selection. The NBS performs best at detecting periodicity and filtering out DRW-only light curves. Combined candidate selection with both the NBS and GLSP significantly reduces false-positive rates (FPRs) with marginal impact on true-positive rates (TPRs). With this joint model selection pipeline, we find the lowest FPRs in ZTF-like simulations and the highest detection rates in LSST-like simulations. Using a modified computation of the false-alarm probability with GLSP, we efficiently triage LSST AGN light curves (∼10 7 light curves in ∼10–30 hr) and achieve TPRs and FPRs of ∼40% and ∼0.5%, respectively.

Banaszak, Sebastian M. [Vanderbilt Univ., Nashvill↗

HydraGNN_Predictive_GFM_2026 - Ensemble of predictive graph foundation models for atomistic materials modeling

This release contains data and parameters of HydraGNN-based graph foundation models trained as a result of the work published in the pre-print "Exascale Multi-Task Graph Foundation Models for Imbalanced, Multi-Fidelity Atomistic Data" by M. Lupo Pasini et al. (https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.15380). We jointly train on 16 open first-principles datasets (544+ million structures covering 85+ elements) using a multi-task architecture with per-dataset heads and a scalable ADIOS2/DDStore data pipeline. On Frontier, we execute six large-scale DeepHyper hyperparameter optimization campaigns in FP64 and promote the top-performing message-passing models to sustained 2,048-node training, yielding a PaiNN-based lead model. The version of HydraGNN used to generate the outputs provided in this release is HydraGNN v5.0 (https://github.com/ORNL/HydraGNN/releases/tag/v5.0) The list of datasets used for the training of the graph foundation model is the following: 1) Alexandria [1] 2) ANI1x [2] 3) MPTrj [3] 4) Open Catalyst 2020 (OC20) [4] 5) Open Catalyst 2022 (OC22) [5] 6) Open Catalyst 2025 (OC25) [6] 7) Open Direct ir Capture 2023 (ODAC23) [7] 8) Open Materials 2024 (OMat24) [8] 9) Open Molecules 2025 (OMol25) [9] 10) OMol25-neutral (subset of OMol25 that contains only molecules with zero total charge) 11) OMol25-non-neutral (subset of OMol25 that contains only molecules with non-zero total charge) 12) Open Polymers 2026 (OPoly2026) [10] 13) Nabla2DFT [11] 14) QCML [12] 15) QM7X [reference 13] 16) transition1x [14] Dataset references: [1] J. Schmidt et al., “A dataset of 175k stable and metastable materials calculated with the PBEsol and SCAN functionals,” Scientific Data, vol. 9, p. 64, 2022. [2] J. S. Smith et al., “The ANI-1ccx and ANI-1x data sets, coupled-cluster and density functional theory properties for molecules,” Scientific Data, vol. 7, p. 134, 2020. [Online]. Available: https: //www.nature.com/articles/s41597-020-0473-z [3] A. Jain et al., “Commentary: The Materials Project: A materials genome approach to accelerating materials innovation,” APL Materials, vol. 1, no. 1, p. 011002, 07 2013. [Online]. Available: https://doi.org/10.1063/1.4812323 [4] L. Chanussot et al., “Open catalyst 2020 (oc20) dataset and community challenges,” ACS Catalysis, vol. 11, no. 10, pp. 6059–6072, 2021. [Online]. Available: https://doi.org/10.1021/acscatal.0c04525 [5] K. Tran et al., “Open catalyst 2022 (oc22) dataset and challenges for oxidation electrocatalysts,” ACS Catalysis, vol. 13, no. 5, pp. 3066–3084, 2023. [Online]. Available: https://doi.org/10.1021/acscatal.2c05426 [6] S. J. Sahoo et al., “The open catalyst 2025 (oc25) dataset and models for solid-liquid interfaces,” arXiv preprint arXiv:2509.17862, 2025. [Online]. Available: https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.17862 [7] A. Sriram et al., “The open DAC 2023 dataset and challenges for sorbent discovery in direct air capture,” ACS Central Science, vol. 10, no. 5, pp. 923–941, 2024. [8] L. Barroso-Luque et al., “Open materials 2024 (omat24) inorganic materials dataset and models,” 2024. [Online]. Available: https://arxiv.org/abs/2410.12771 [9] D. S. Levine et al., “The open molecules 2025 (OMol25) dataset, evaluations, and models,” 2025. [Online]. Available: https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.08762 [10] D. S. Levine et al., The open polymers 2026 (OPoly26) dataset and evaluations,” arXiv preprint arXiv:2512.23117, 2025. [Online]. Available: https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.23117 [11] K. Khrabrov et al., “Nabla2dft: A universal quantum chemistry dataset of drug-like molecules and a benchmark for neural network potentials,” in NeurIPS 2024 Datasets and Benchmarks Track, 2024. [Online]. Available: https://openreview.net/forum?id=ElUrNM9U8c [12] S. Ganscha et al., “The QCML dataset, quantum chemistry reference data from 33.5M DFT and 14.7B semi-empirical calculations,” Scientific Data, vol. 12, p. 406, 2025. [13] J. Hoja et al., “QM7-X, a comprehensive dataset of quantum-mechanical properties spanning the chemical space of small organic molecules,” Scientific Data, vol. 8, p. 43, 2021. [Online]. Available: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41597-021-00812-2 [14] M. Schreiner et al., “Transition1x - a dataset for building generalizable reactive machine learning potentials,” Scientific Data, vol. 9, p. 779, 2022. The folder "datasets_ADIOS2_format" contains the set of pre-processed datasets in Adaptable I/O System (ADIOS) format (https://www.exascaleproject.org/research-project/adios/) that have been used for the development and training of GFMs in this work. The "datasets_ADIOS2_format" directory contains 2 sub-directories, one for the version "v1" of the datasets and one for the version "v2" of the datasets. The version "v1" of the datasets provides values of the total energy as they are extracted from the original data as it was released by the respective institutions. The version "v2" of the datasets provides values of the energy that have been realigned. The realignment was performed by training a linear regression model that predicts the total energy as a function of the chemical composition of the atomistic structure, and then subtract such prediction from the original value of the total energy. Both folders "v1" and "v2" contain 16 sub-directories, each corresponding to an ADIOS2-formatted dataset The folder "DeepHyper-results" contains the configurational files and model's parameters for all the 186 HPO trials that were successfully completed by the scalable hyperparameter optimization (HPO) runs on Frontier. The content of the folder "DeepHyper-results" I structured as follows: 1) task-list.txt: list of mpnn name, jobid, and deephyper task id 2) gfm_${MPNN}_${JOBID}_0.${TASKID}: run directory with checkpoint files 3) gfm_${MPNN}: deephyper summary directory (*.csv) for each specific MPNN type 4) deephyper-experiment-${JOBID}: output and error logs for each job The file "deephyper-sorted.csv" contains the details of each HydraGNN model built and tested by HPO, obtained by merging the (*.csv) filed from each HPO run executed. Out of all the HPO trials, we selected 10 to continue the training of the respective HydraGNN models. Due to limited computational budget available in the LRN070 allocation we could not complete the training till convergence for all these 10 selected models. The folder "models" contains multiple sub-folders, one per each HydraGNN model trained. Each model sub-folder contains the parameters of each HydraGNN model, with multiple checkpoint-restarts. The list of sub-folders are as follows: 1) multidataset_hpo-BEST1-fp64 2) multidataset_hpo-BEST2-fp64 3) multidataset_hpo-BEST3-fp64 4) multidataset_hpo-BEST4-fp64 5) multidataset_hpo-BEST5-fp64 6) multidataset_hpo-BEST6-fp64 7) multidataset_hpo-BEST7-fp64 8) multidataset_hpo-BEST8-fp64 9) multidataset_hpo-BEST9-fp64 10) multidataset_hpo-BEST10-fp64 Within each one of these folders, additional auxiliary log files are provided with descriptions about how the training proceeded. The lead PaiNN-model is contained inside "multidataset_hpo-BEST6-fp64". The file "mlp_branch_weights" contains the parameters of the multi-layer perceptron (MLP) used to reconcile the predictions of the 16 output decoding heads of the HydragNN architectures. The MLP takes in input the chemical composition of the atomistic structure and predicts averaging weights to linearly mix the predictions of each output decoding head toward consolidating them into a single one. The folder "1.1billion-structure-inference" contains 1.1 billion atomistic structures randomly generated. Each structures is associated with energy and forces predicted with the lead-PaiNN model combined with the MLP model for reconciliation of the multi-branch predictions generated by the 16 output decoding heads. The folder "1.1billion-structure-inference" contains 9,300 (*.tar.gz) subdirectories, one per Frontier compute node used to execute the inference at exascale. Once uncompressed, each (*.tar.gz) subdirectory contains an ADIOS2 (*.bp) file container, where each atomistic structure is stored as a PyTorch-Geometric Data object. The file "export_dataset_environment_variables.sh" contains the environment variables that need to be set before running the HydraGNN code to reproduce the results provided in this dataset release. The code that can be used to load the ADIOS2 files, load HydraGNN models, and run inference is available at: https://github.com/ORNL/HydraGNN/releases/tag/v5.0

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Frequency-Selectable Laser Source for Cosmic Microwave Background Experiments

Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) experiments measure remnant radiation from the early universe and use that data to determine fundamental properties of the universe. We can constrain key parameters, such as \textit{r}, the cosmic tensor-to-scalar ratio, and $N_\text{eff}$, the effective number of relativistic species, by analyzing the CMB power spectra. Improving our measurements of the CMB requires improving our instrument systematics, one of the most important of which is detector bandpass. Current experiments use a Fourier Transform Spectrometer (FTS) to measure bandpass. However, the FTS is systematics limited, and cannot achieve the accuracy needed to make improved CMB measurements. For this reason, we are developing a new instrument, the Frequency-Selectable Laser Source (FLS) to decrease the uncertainty in bandpass by an order of magnitude. In this paper, we describe work completed to support the version 2 upgrade to the FLS. Using ray-tracing software, we modeled the FLS optics to set physical tolerances for the new design. We also discuss the laser calibration, and future work to be completed in further development of the FLS upgrade.

Rosen-Turits, Gabriel M. [Fermilab]↗

Emulator-Based Bayesian Calibration of the CISNET Colorectal Cancer Models

Purpose To calibrate Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET)'s SimCRC, MISCAN-Colon, and CRC-SPIN simulation models of the natural history colorectal cancer (CRC) with an emulator-based Bayesian algorithm and internally validate the model-predicted outcomes to calibration targets.Methods We used Latin hypercube sampling to sample up to 50,000 parameter sets for each CISNET-CRC model and generated the corresponding outputs. We trained multilayer perceptron artificial neural networks (ANNs) as emulators using the input and output samples for each CISNET-CRC model. We selected ANN structures with corresponding hyperparameters (i.e., number of hidden layers, nodes, activation functions, epochs, and optimizer) that minimize the predicted mean square error on the validation sample. We implemented the ANN emulators in a probabilistic programming language and calibrated the input parameters with Hamiltonian Monte Carlo-based algorithms to obtain the joint posterior distributions of the CISNET-CRC models' parameters. We internally validated each calibrated emulator by comparing the model-predicted posterior outputs against the calibration targets.Results The optimal ANN for SimCRC had 4 hidden layers and 360 hidden nodes, MISCAN-Colon had 4 hidden layers and 114 hidden nodes, and CRC-SPIN had 1 hidden layer and 140 hidden nodes. The total time for training and calibrating the emulators was 7.3, 4.0, and 0.66 h for SimCRC, MISCAN-Colon, and CRC-SPIN, respectively. The mean of the model-predicted outputs fell within the 95% confidence intervals of the calibration targets in 98 of 110 for SimCRC, 65 of 93 for MISCAN, and 31 of 41 targets for CRC-SPIN.Conclusions Using ANN emulators is a practical solution to reduce the computational burden and complexity for Bayesian calibration of individual-level simulation models used for policy analysis, such as the CISNET CRC models. In this work, we present a step-by-step guide to constructing emulators for calibrating 3 realistic CRC individual-level models using a Bayesian approach.

artificial neural networks↗

Frequency-Selectable Laser Source (FLS) for Cosmic Microwave Background Experiments

Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) experiments measure remnant radiation from the early universe and use that data to determine fundamental properties of the universe. We can constrain key parameters, such as \textit{r}, the cosmic tensor-to-scalar ratio, and $N_\text{eff}$, the effective number of relativistic species, by analyzing the CMB power spectra. Improving our measurements of the CMB requires improving our instrument systematics, one of the most important of which is detector bandpass. Current experiments use a Fourier Transform Spectrometer (FTS) to measure bandpass. However, the FTS is systematics limited, and cannot achieve the accuracy needed to make improved CMB measurements. For this reason, we are developing a new instrument, the Frequency-Selectable Laser Source (FLS) to decrease the uncertainty in bandpass by an order of magnitude. In this paper, we describe work completed to support the version 2 upgrade to the FLS. Using ray-tracing software, we modeled the FLS optics to set physical tolerances for the new design. We also discuss the laser calibration, and future work to be completed in further development of the FLS upgrade.

Rosen-Turits, Gabriel M.↗

Mechanistic Insights into Acetate Selectivity on Intermetallic CuPd(110) in CO Reduction

Experimental studies demonstrate that CuPd(110) uniquely favors acetate formation during CO reduction (CORR), contrasting with the preference for ethylene on Cu surfaces. To elucidate this selectivity, we employed explicit solvation density functional theory (DFT) calculations to investigate the reaction mechanism from both thermodynamic and kinetic angles. Here, our findings reveal that on CuPd(110), the acetate-pathway intermediate H 2 CCO is thermodynamically favored at experimental conditions, while CHCHO─a precursor to ethylene─is preferred on Cu(111). Beyond thermodynamics, we find that H 2 CCO is kinetically accessible under the experimental conditions on CuPd(110), aiding acetate formation. Electron density difference analyses further corroborate distinct protonation preferences supporting this mechanism. We propose a thermodynamic screening parameter based on the Gibbs free energy, G H 2 CCO < G CHCHO , as a guide for designing Cu-based catalysts with enhanced acetate selectivity. These results offer critical mechanistic insights into the CORR product distribution and a rational framework for future catalyst design.

Acetate↗

Unified differentiable digital twin for the IOTA/FAST facility

As the design complexity of modern accelerators grows, there is more interest in using advanced simulations that have fast execution time or produce insights about accelerator state. One notable example of additional information are gradients of physical observables with respect to design parameters produced by differentiable simulations. The IOTA/FAST facility has recently begun a program to implement and experimentally validate a unified start-to-end differentiable digital twin to serve as a virtual accelerator test stand, allowing for rapid prototyping of new software and experiments with minimal beam time costs. In this contribution we will discuss our plans and progress. Specifically, we will cover the selection and benchmarking of both physics and ML codes, the development of generic interfaces between device models and surrogate or physics-based sections, and the export of the parameters through either a deterministic event loop or a fully asynchronous EPICS soft input/output controller. We will also discuss challenges in model calibration and uncertainty quantification, as well as future plans to support larger proton accelerators like PIPII and Booster.

Kuklev, Nikita [Fermilab]↗

An Atom-Precise Approach to Damp First-Order Phase Transitions and Its Implications for Neuromorphic Signal Processing

Neuromorphic computing inspired by mammalian intelligence aims to emulate the nonlinear dynamics of biological neurons and synapses to achieve fast, low-energy, and highly efficient information processing. Brain-inspired computing relies on the design and discovery of materials exhibiting nonlinear current–voltage profiles, frequently underpinned by electronic state transitions, to achieve spiking neurons and dynamically tunable synapses. A signature challenge in the design of artificial neurons is controlling the steepness of first-order transitions in active elements, as abrupt transitions are at risk of driving unstable voltage and temperature oscillations, which result in catastrophic device failure. A critical knowledge gap is the lack of structure–function correlations mapping the composition and atomistic structure of crystalline solids to nonlinear dynamical response characteristics. Here, we address the key question of how modification of atomistic structure correlates with alteration of neuron-like functionality. Constructing oscillator circuits from millimeter-scale single crystals enables high-resolution atomic structure solutions, which we use to demonstrate that the selective positioning of Pb cations modifies charge ordering along a one-dimensional CuxV2O5 framework even at low insertion stoichiometries, thereby providing an atom-precise design parameter for damping first-order transitions. We use temperature-variant X-ray diffraction and X-ray spectroscopy to elucidate the suppression of Cu-ion shuttling based on the precise positioning of Pb ions in seven-coordinated tunnel interstitial sites as the mechanistic basis for transition broadening, thus bridging a critical gap between statistical mechanics and quantum chemical descriptions of phase transitions. Such mechanistic understanding thus paves the way to site-selective modification strategies for modulating the sharpness of first-order transitions, with an exemplary demonstration here in tuning neuronal signal processing.

Crystal structure↗

Nuclear Integrated Hydrogen Production Analysis Tool

This is an Excel-based time-independent discount cash flow calculator for LWR-HTSE systems. The tool incorporates (1) discounted cash flow and levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) analysis, (2) sensitivity analysis with respect to select financial performance metrics with output ‘tornado’ charts, (3) profitability analysis represented by heat maps using the two most sensitive parameters, (4) electricity versus hydrogen production preference analysis by comparing change in net present value (?NPV) between NPP-HTSE and business-as-usual electricity production for the grid, and (5) competitiveness analysis by comparing the calculated LCOH for NPP-HTSE with that of steam methane reforming, which is the conventional process to produce hydrogen.

Cheng, WenChi [Idaho National Laboratory (INL), Id↗

Experiments to validate Thermodynamics and Transport models of Strongly Coupled Dusty Plasma Matter (Final Technical Report for DE-SC0023416)

The goal of this two-year grant is to provide access to the PI to dusty plasma experimental facilities at the DOE-funded Collaborative Research Facility Magnetized Plasma Research Laboratory, Auburn University to become a user of that facility, to obtain experimental data to support another ongoing grant DE-SC0021146 (an Early Career Award to the PI that is focused on modeling of dusty plasma thermodynamics and transport processes), to generate experimental data for funding proposals, and to provide exposure to University of Memphis students to advanced experimental techniques. The following technical accomplishments were made: 1. Development of a novel Bidirectional Electrode Control Arms Assembly (BECAA) for producing perfect 2D grain layers for complex plasma experimentation. BECAA uses movable electrode arms to tilt or move the electrode in a RF discharge from outside the chamber, allowing for the manipulation of grain clouds without needing to change the plasma parameters or gas pressure. This work addresses a longstanding gap in the literature for a method to produce clusters of selectable number of grains and that are perfectly two dimensional as opposed to being only quasi-2D. 2. Experimental investigation of the structural properties of finite-N clusters with N=2 to 50. Individual particle behavior in clusters could vary from grain to grain and this study measured systematically produced clusters for two different grain sizes. Analysis (funded by another grant DE-SC0021146) is currently underway to quantify the differences between grains that are found on the surface vs. the interior of clusters, the shell structure, and the decay of correlations in position, velocity, and kinetic energy. 3. An experimental method to measure the structural entropy of clusters was developed by observing the self-induced structural transitions between various possible arrangements. In a series of heating and cooling cycles, the number of times each possible arrangement was attained was experimentally observed and used to compute the probability of existence of that arrangement, and subsequently the configurational entropy of the cluster. Analysis (funded by another grant DE-SC0021146) is currently underway to produce the entropy of clusters as a function of the number of grains and use the same to compute thermodynamic state variables for 2D complex plasma/grain clusters. 4. A preliminary experimental study of multibody collisions between N grains (N=2 – 10) was conducted. The clusters were produced using the BECAA technique and velocities were imparted to the grains using manipulation laser pulses. Analysis (funded by another grant DE-SC0021146) is currently underway to develop a theoretical framework to describe multibody collisions analogous to classical two-body interactions.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

PV Degradation Modeling: Applying Geospatial Workflows with "PVDeg"

Accurate degradation modeling is essential for predicting photovoltaic (PV) module performance, estimating longevity and informing design decisions. With degradation rates varying significantly by location, geospatial analysis is critical for PV and broader applications, such as agrivoltaics, weathering and environmental data analysis. This work presents PVDeg, an open-source tool designed for geospatial degradation analysis. PVDeg integrates meteorological data from global sources, including the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) and Photovoltaic Geographical Information System (PVGIS), with degradation models. The toolkit enables users to customize geospatial workflows by integrating weather data, material parameters, and user-defined Python functions. It facilitates accelerated downloads of NSRDB and PVGIS datasets and optimizes geospatial point selection to preserve data density in regions of interest. Additionally, PVDeg provides a local database for storage and spatial queries, supporting large-scale analyses without the need for high-performance computing (HPC) resources. PVDeg provides a foundational workflow that extends its utility beyond PV applications, enabling researchers to analyze geospatial processes across discipline.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Evolution of size-selected Pt cluster catalysts on prototypical oxide supports

The current quest for new pathways into sustainable, efficient and durable energy conversion technologies makes the used for a fundamental understanding of the atomic-scale phenomena underlying catalytic processes ever more pressing. In this context, characterizing catalyst particles in situ provides valuable information about the evolution of their composition, structure, oxidation state and charge state during an ongoing process. To disentangle the influence of individual parameters – temperature, pressure, gas composition, cluster size, as well as support acidity, redox state and defect density – it is crucial to control them precisely and separately in experiments. At the example of size-selected Pt n clusters – i.e. sub-nm particles defined to the exact number of atoms – on flat oxide supports, we follow their rich evolution phenomena via (synchrotron-based) X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) and scanning tunnelling microscopy (STM) during temperature ramps and in various gas environments. Here, we present our experience with these highly defined, yet complicated-to-create samples in ultra-high vacuum (UHV) and at mbar pressures. We discuss their stability during transport to synchrotrons and under reaction conditions on three prototypical oxide supports and show the various phenomena that can be disentangled. Ptn clusters on the non-reducible silicon dioxide, SiO 2 , remain size-selected and show remarkable stability. Doping strongly influences the size-dependent binding energy shifts and changes the Pt response to oxidative and reaction conditions, which we attribute to different cluster geometries: p-type doping leads to wetting, enhanced sinter resistance and a diminished response to oxidative environments, compared to clusters on n-type doped samples. We compare the system with our previous findings of a similar change in dimensionality for Pt 20 clusters on the reducible ceria, CeO 2 (111), support, induced by modulation of its O vacancy density. The Pt n /CeO 2 system is particularly interesting for strategies to stabilize and redisperse Pt clusters dynamically. Finally, we study the evolution of Pt n clusters on another reducible oxide support, magnetite, Fe 3 O 4 (001), in 0.1 mbar alternating redox conditions at RT and elevated temperature. In analogy to findings previously reported for Pt/TiO 2 (110), the clusters either become encapsulated by a thin oxide film via strong metal–support interaction (SMSI) or deeply buried in the magnetite. Overall, our approach of following the evolution of size-selected clusters on oxide supports leads to fundamental atomic-scale insights on nano-scale catalyst materials, on our path to sustainable, dynamic and self-repairing catalysts.

Falling, Lorenz J. [Technical Univ. of Munich (Ger↗

Role of the Mobile Active Site Flap in IMP Dehydrogenase Inhibitor Binding

Inosine 5′-monophosphate dehydrogenase (IMPDH) is a promising antibiotic target. This enzyme catalyzes the NAD-dependent oxidation of inosine 5′-monophosphate (IMP) to xanthosine 5′-monophosphate (XMP), which is the rate-limiting step in guanine nucleotide biosynthesis. Bacterial IMPDH-specific inhibitors have been developed that bind to the NAD + site. These inhibitors display varied affinities to different bacterial IMPDHs that are not easily rationalized by X-ray crystal structures of enzyme–inhibitor complexes. Inspection of X-ray crystal structures of 25 enzyme–inhibitor complexes, including 10 newly described, suggested that a mobile active site flap may be a structural determinant of inhibitor potency. Saturation transfer difference NMR experiments also suggested that the flap may contact the inhibitors to varying extents in different IMPDHs. Flap residue Leu413 contacted some inhibitors but was not structured in the crystal structures of other inhibitor complexes. The substitution of Leu413 with Phe or Ala in Bacillus anthracis IMPDH had inhibitor-selective effects, suggesting residue 413 could be a structural determinant of affinity. Curiously, the Ala substitution increased the potency of most inhibitors, even those that contacted Leu413 in the crystal structures. Presteady-state and steady-state kinetics experiments showed that the Leu413Ala substitution had comparable effects on inhibitor binding to the noncovalent E·IMP complex and the covalent intermediate E-XMP*, suggesting that the flap had similar interactions in both complexes. These results demonstrate that contacts do not necessarily indicate favorable interactions, and poorly structured mobile regions should not be discounted when assessing binding determinants.

Conformation↗

Sparsified time-dependent Fourier neural operators for fusion simulations

This paper presents a sparsified Fourier neural operator for coupled time-dependent partial differential equations (ST-FNO) as an efficient machine learning surrogate for fluid and particle-based fusion codes such as NIMROD (Non-Ideal Magnetohydrodynamics with Rotation - Open Discussion) and GTC (Gyrokinetic Toroidal Code). ST-FNO leverages the structures in the governing equations and utilizes neural operators to represent Green's function-like numerical operators in the corresponding numerical solvers. Once trained, ST-FNO can rapidly and accurately predict dynamics in fusion devices compared with first-principle numerical algorithms. In general, ST-FNO represents an efficient and accurate machine learning surrogate for numerical simulators for multi-variable nonlinear time-dependent partial differential equations, with the proposed architectures and loss functions. The efficacy of ST-FNO has been demonstrated using quiescent H-mode simulation data from NIMROD and kink-mode simulation data from GTC. The ST-FNO H-mode results show orders of magnitude reduction in memory and central processing unit usage in comparison with the numerical solvers in NIMROD when computing fields over a selected poloidal plane. The ST-FNO kink-mode results achieve a factor of 2 reduction in the number of parameters compared to baseline FNO models without accuracy loss.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

System Study: Reactor Core Isolation Cooling 1998-2024

This report presents an unreliability evaluation of the reactor core isolation cooling (RCIC) system at 28 U.S. commercial operating boiling water reactors. New Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) models with the most recent SPAR parameter update results were used in this report. Demand, run hour, and failure data from calendar years 1998 to 2024 for selected components were obtained from the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations Industry Reporting and Information System. The unreliability results are trended for the most recent 10 year period and yearly estimates for system unreliability are provided for the entire active period. No statistically significant increasing or decreasing trends were identified in the RCIC results.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

System Study: Auxiliary Feedwater 1998-2024

This report presents an unreliability evaluation of the auxiliary feedwater (AFW) system at 62 U.S. commercial operating nuclear reactors. New Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) models with the most recent SPAR parameter update results were used in this report. Demand, run hour, and failure data from calendar years 1998 to 2024 for selected components were obtained from the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations Industry Reporting and Information System. The unreliability results are trended for the most recent 10 year period and yearly estimates for system unreliability are provided for the entire active period. No statistically significant increasing or decreasing trends were identified in the industry-wide estimates of AFW system start-only unreliability, but a statistically significant decreasing trend was identified in the industry-wide estimates of AFW system 24-hour mission unreliability.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

System Study: High-Pressure Safety Injection 1998-2024

This report presents an unreliability evaluation of the high-pressure safety injection system (HPSI) at 62 U.S. commercial operating nuclear reactors. New Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) models with the most recent SPAR parameter update results were used in this report. Demand, run hour, and failure data from calendar years 1998 to 2024 for selected components were obtained from the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations Industry Reporting and Information System. The unreliability results are trended for the most recent 10-year period and yearly estimates for system unreliability are provided for the entire active period. Statistically significant decreasing trends were identified in both the HPSI system start-only unreliability and 24-hour mission unreliability.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Factors That Influence Variability in Stress-Drop Measurements Using Spectral Decomposition and Spectral-Ratio Methods for the 2019 Ridgecrest Earthquake Sequence

Stress drop is a fundamental parameter related to earthquake source physics, but is hard to measure accurately. To better understand how different factors influence stress-drop measurements, we compare two different methods using the Ridgecrest stress-drop validation data set: spectral decomposition (SD) and spectral ratio (SR), each with different processing options. Here, we also examine the influence of spectral complexity on source parameter measurement. Applying the SD method, we find that frequency bandwidth and time-window length could influence spectral magnitude calibration, while depth-dependent attenuation is important to correctly map stress-drop variations. For the SR method, we find that the selected source model has limited influence on the measurements; however, the Boatwright model tends to produce smaller standard deviation and larger magnitude dependence than the Brune model. Variance reduction threshold, frequency bandwidth, and time-window length, if chosen within an appropriate parameter range, have limited influence on source parameter measurement. For both methods, wave type, attenuation correction, and spectral complexity strongly influence the result. The scale factor that quantifies the magnitude dependence of stress drop show large variations with different processing options, and earthquakes with complex source spectra deviating from the Brune-type source models tend to have larger scale factor than earthquakes without complexity. Based on these detailed comparisons, we make a few specific suggestions for data processing workflows that could help future studies of source parameters and interpretations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗