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DOE OSTI2025

Energy, greenhouse gas, and water life cycle analysis of synthetic graphite anode production in the United States

This study presents a comprehensive life cycle analysis of potential synthetic graphite battery anode material (BAM) production in the U.S. based on industrial-scale data. The analysis focuses on three impacts: greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, total energy use, and water consumption. We also conducted sensitivity analyses to evaluate the effect of variation in process parameters and energy sources used for synthetic graphite BAM production on its life cycle GHG emissions. A detailed supply chain analysis of graphite BAM in the U.S. was also undertaken, along with a study of its associated GHG emissions. The results show GHG emissions of 29.7 kg CO 2 -eq. per kg BAM, total energy use of 580 MJ kg −1 BAM, and water consumption of 121 L kg −1 BAM for the baseline condition. The graphitization step is a major process hotspot, contributing to over 74% of all impacts. This is attributed to the energy and material input requirements for this step, particularly through the use of crucibles. Across the entire synthetic graphite production process, electricity is the primary contributor, followed by crucibles used in graphite block production, and then calcined petroleum coke. Sensitivity analyses indicate that improvement in micronization yield, reuse of crucibles, and use of low-carbon nuclear energy can significantly reduce GHG emissions of potential domestic graphite production (by ∼70%). Supply chain analysis identified major graphite BAM sources in the U.S. and showed that the U.S. has a competitive advantage in domestic production of synthetic graphite BAM in terms of reduced life cycle GHG emissions compared to present-day imported sources (by ∼20%).

Battery anode↗

DOE OSTI2024

Techno-Economic Analysis of Large-Scale Hydrogen Production from Solid Oxide Electrolysis Cell Systems

The objective of this study is to establish a detailed techno-economic analysis to assess the effectiveness of incremental technology improvements needed for solid oxide electrolysis cell (SOEC) technology to achieve the U.S. DOE’s Hydrogen Shot goal of hydrogen production at less than $1 per kilogram. The pathway considers incremental technology improvements to key system parameters, with system performance and cost assessed for each pathway step. Briefly, the steps include cell voltage degradation rate improvements, operational current density increases, operating temperature reduction, improved steam utilization, increased system capacity factor, and reduced cell/stack capital costs. Each step is assessed at both atmospheric and pressurized (8 bar) operating conditions. To supplement assessment at each of these discrete stepwise improvements, sensitivity studies are conducted to understand the relative impact of each parameter and identify avenues for additional cost reductions. System efficiency and levelized costs of hydrogen (LCOH) for each case are presented. For the end-of-pathway case, which includes all the incremental research and development improvements, the cost of hydrogen produced is reduced by 50 percent from the state-of-the-art case.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2025

Multi-Objective Optimization of Uranium Target Assembly–3: A Comparison of Genetic and Traditional Methods

Commonly produced as a byproduct of uranium fission, 99 Mo is a key medical isotope that is in high demand in the United States. An international goal is to switch from medical isotope production technologies that require highly enriched uranium to medical isotope production technologies that require only low-enriched uranium. Niowave Inc. is contributing to this goal by developing an accelerator-driven subcritical assembly called the Uranium Target Assembly (UTA). This work compares the performance of Dakota’s Multi-Objective Genetic Algorithm (MOGA) against traditional sensitivity analysis in the neutronic optimization of the UTA-3 system. The design objectives are k-eigenvalue (k eff ) and natural uranium fission power, which are directly correlated with the amount of 99 Mo produced. Dakota:MOGA did not perform as well as human engineering ingenuity in optimization studies with high numbers of input parameters, such as fuel rod type selection and fuel rod placement. However, Dakota:MOGA did outperform traditional sensitivity analysis in optimization studies with fewer than 20 parameters and revealed the degree to which each parameter influences the optimal design space for k eff and natural uranium fission power (to a lesser extent). As the design model became more complex in the final stage of design, the computational resources required to calculate the design objective values in the Monte Carlo N-Particle transport code from selected input parameter combinations limited Dakota:MOGA’s performance, and, unfortunately, human intervention was required to discern the optimal design space. In conclusion, future work will attempt to reduce computational resource constraints by incorporating areduced-order neutronics model into the optimization cycle.

Accelerator-driven systems↗

DOE OSTI2025

Bounds on Lorentz Violation Parameters in the DUNE Experiment

The Standard Model (SM) has been highly successful in describing fundamental interactions, yet phenomena like neutrino oscillations point to physics beyond its framework. Among the proposed extensions, Lorentz invariance violation (LIV) stands out as a compelling possibility. Long-baseline neutrino experiments such as DUNE, with its 1300 km baseline, offer a promising setting to test LIV effects with high precision. In this work, we evaluate DUNE s sensitivity to LIV by analyzing event rates and oscillation probabilities using the GLoBES framework. A custom implementation of LIV parameters was employed to derive bounds on the aa and cc matrices, identifying the parameter values that lead to a 10% deviation from the standard oscillation probability. Our results show partial agreement with previous studies for the aa parameters, while deviations in the cc parameters highlight the impact of differing methodologies and sensitivities. These findings reinforce the relevance of LIV searches and motivate further theoretical and experimental efforts in this direction.

Cruz, Thiago. [Tech. Fed. Parana U.]↗

DOE OSTI2026

Hybrid Symbolic-Numerical Modeling and Parametric Stability Analysis of DC–AC Power Systems

Hybrid DC-AC power systems integrating diverse inverter-based resources (IBRs) and multi-terminal high-voltage direct current (MTDC) networks represent a promising architecture for future power grids, while introducing challenges for modeling, stability analysis, and control design. This paper develops a hybrid symbolic-numerical modeling framework and tool to characterize the parametric small-signal stability of DC-AC coupled power systems. The proposed approach constructs parametric state-space models to enable efficient representation of system dynamics under varying control parameters and network configurations, with target parameters retained as symbolic variables and the remainder treated numerically. The stability analysis framework covers eigenvalue, sensitivity, and stability boundary and region characterization. Enhanced linear matrix inequality (LMI) techniques are proposed to directly certify small-signal stability over regions of parameter space while also reducing the conservativeness and computational burden. The resulting tools and frameworks enable rapid parametric model construction across diverse grid conditions, thereby facilitating stability-informed control and operation in complex DC–AC power systems.

DC–AC power systems↗

DOE OSTI2025

Multi-objective automatic discovery of optimized metamaterials for varying velocity impact protection

Mechanical metamaterials have demonstrated exceptional impact performance while remaining lightweight. Impact resistance has traditionally been investigated using quasi-static simulations, often with the assumption that performance will translate to high-velocity impact scenarios. However, critical crash protection parameters—such as peak stress and absorbed energy—are highly sensitive to impact velocity, leading to inconsistent performance under dynamic loading. To address this, we introduce a strain-rate-aware, active deep learning framework that enables multi-objective optimization of impact protection metrics across a wide range of impact velocities. Our framework captures the strain-rate sensitivity of architected lattices by learning to control spatial gradation in cellular metamaterials, resulting in over 200 % enhancement in impact protection relative to state-of-the-art designs such as Voronoi and re-entrant lattices. We demonstrate its practical utility by designing next-generation lattice structures for automotive bumper systems that satisfy multiple, velocity-specific safety criteria—capabilities beyond those of conventional designs. More than just a predictive tool, this framework marks the first step towards enabling adaptable impact-resistant structures across dynamic regimes.

Deep learning↗

DOE OSTI2026

Physics potential of the IceCube Upgrade for atmospheric neutrino oscillations

The IceCube Upgrade is an extension of the existing IceCube Neutrino Observatory and will be deployed in the 2025–2026 austral summer. It will significantly improve the sensitivity of the detector to atmospheric neutrino oscillations. The existing 86-string IceCube array contains a dense in-fill known as DeepCore which is optimized to measure neutrinos with energies down to a few GeV. The IceCube Upgrade will consist of seven new densely instrumented strings placed within the DeepCore volume to further enhance the performance in the GeV energy range. The additional strings will feature new optical modules, each containing multiple photomultiplier tubes (PMTs), in contrast to the existing modules that each contain a single PMT. This will more than triple the number of PMT channels with respect to the current IceCube configuration, allowing for improved detection efficiency and reconstruction performance at GeV energies. We describe necessary updates to simulation, event selection, and reconstruction to accommodate the higher data rates observed by the upgraded detector and the addition of multi-PMT modules. We determine the expected sensitivity of the IceCube Upgrade to the atmospheric neutrino oscillation parameters sin 2 ⁡𝜃 23 and Δ⁢𝑚$^{2}_{32}$, the appearance of tau neutrinos and the neutrino mass ordering. The IceCube Upgrade will provide neutrino oscillation measurements that are of similar precision to those from accelerator experiments, while providing complementarity by probing higher energies and longer baselines, and with different sources of systematic uncertainties.

artificial neural networks↗

DOE OSTI2025

New technology for an ancient fish: A lamprey life cycle modeling tool with an R Shiny application

Lampreys (Petromyzontiformes) are an ancient group of fishes with complex life histories. We created a life cycle model that includes an R Shiny interactive web application interface to simulate abundance by life stage. This will allow scientists and managers to connect available demographic information in a framework that can be applied to questions regarding lamprey biology and conservation. We used Pacific lamprey ( Entosphenus tridentatus ) as a case study to highlight the utility of this model. We applied a global sensitivity analysis to explore the importance of individual life stage parameters to overall population size, and to better understand the implications of existing gaps in knowledge. We also provided example analyses of selected management scenarios (dam passage, fish translocations, and hatchery additions) influencing Pacific lamprey in fresh water. These applications illustrate how the model can be applied to inform conservation efforts. This tool will provide new capabilities for users to explore their own questions about lamprey biology and conservation. Simulations can hone hypotheses and predictions, which can then be empirically tested in the real world.

Gomes, Dylan G. E. (ORCID:0000000226423728)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Dose Exceedance Distance Sensitivity Based on Parametric Uncertainty

Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) collaborated with the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC) Office of Nuclear Security and Incident Response (NSIR) and Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research (RES) to investigate the reasonable variability in the estimation of dose exceedance distances. SNL performed calculations using the MACCS code to elucidate the sensitivity of dose exceedance distances to variations in user input parameters.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Investigating One- and Two-Body Interference Terms in Neutrino Argon Interactions with ACHILLES at LArTPCs

Due to the complex nature of heavy nuclei, uncertainties in the prediction of neutrino-nucleus cross-sections contribute significantly to the systematic limitations of neutrino oscillation experiments. Current neutrino detectors are dedicating significant effort to measuring these cross-sections in order to improve the sensitivities of next-generation experiments. To extract translatable scattering parameters that can be applied between detector media and beam energies, these measurements must be supported by robust theoretical modelling. ACHILLES is a recent theory-driven lepton-nucleus scattering generator that aims to be easily extensible, while also providing modern accurate theory predictions. This talk will discuss the application of ACHILLES to derive experimental observables for the investigation of interference between one- and two-body scattering processes in neutrino-nucleus interactions. We will show studies primarily using the Booster Neutrino Beam (BNB) flux in the context of the SBND experiment, which is collecting world-leading statistics for neutrino argon scattering, utilising its PRISM capabilities.

Paton, Josephine L. [Fermilab]↗

DOE OSTI2025

Measurement of the weak mixing angle at 13 TeV with the CMS detector

This document summarizes work in experimental high-energy physics completed as part of the author’s doctoral studies. The central piece of this thesis is the precision measurement of the effective weak mixing angle at the CMS detector. The effective weak mixing angle is a key parameter in the standard model of particle physics and is sensitive to radiative corrections from beyond standard model physics. The measurement is made by using the forward backwards asymmetry of Drell-Yan dilepton pairs. The data is from proton proton collisions at √s =13 TeV collected in Run 2 of the LHC from 2016-2018. The measurement uses dimuon and dielectron pairs and includes a special class of forward electrons developed for this measurement that do not rely on the tracking subdetector. Using the CT18Z parton distribution function set the weak mixing angle was determined to be [equation did not render] The largest contribution to the uncertainty comes from the parton distribution functions.

Taus, Rhys [Rochester U.]↗

DOE OSTI2024

Distributionally Robust Variational Quantum Algorithms With Shifted Noise

Given their potential to demonstrate near-term quantum advantage, variational quantum algorithms (VQAs) have been extensively studied. Although numerous techniques have been developed for VQA parameter optimization, it remains a significant challenge. A practical issue is the high sensitivity of quantum noise to environmental changes, and its propensity to shift in real time. This presents a critical problem as an optimized VQA ansatz may not perform effectively under a different noise environment. For the first time, we explore how to optimize VQA parameters to be robust against unknown shifted noise. We model the noise level as a random variable with an unknown probability density function (PDF), and we assume that the PDF may shift within an uncertainty set. This assumption guides us to formulate a distributionally robust optimization problem, with the goal of finding parameters that maintain effectiveness under shifted noise. We utilize a distributionally robust Bayesian optimization solver for our proposed formulation. This provides numerical evidence in both the Quantum Approximate Optimization Algorithm (QAOA) and the Variational Quantum Eigensolver (VQE) with hardware-efficient ansatz, indicating that we can identify parameters that perform more robustly under shifted noise. We regard this work as the first step towards improving the reliability of VQAs influenced by real-time noise.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Finite-size effects on small- x evolution and saturation in proton and nuclear targets

Within the color glass condensate effective field theory, we assess the importance of including a finite size for the target on observables sensitive to small- x evolution. To this end, we study the Balitsky-Kovchegov (BK) equation with impact-parameter dependence in the initial condition. We demonstrate that neglecting the dependence on the impact parameter can result in overestimated saturation effects for protons, while it has little effect for heavy nuclei at the energies available at current experiments. When fixing the nonperturbative parameters to the energy dependence of the exclusive J / ψ photoproduction cross section with proton targets, predictions for lead targets are not sensitive to the applied running-coupling prescription, the scheme chosen to resum large transverse logarithms in the BK equation, or the infrared regulator in the evolution. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Spin-squeezed vector atomic magnetometry

Atomic magnetometers based on Zeeman shift measurement have the potential for high sensitivity and long-term stability. Like other atomic sensors, including atomic clocks and atom interferometers, the atomic magnetometer could, in principle, be augmented with spin squeezing for further sensitivity enhancement. However, existing atomic magnetometers are not compatible with spin squeezing because the atoms can hardly be in a pure quantum state during operation. Moreover, a natural challenge faced by an atomic magnetometer is the arbitrary direction of the magnetic field. In this paper, we propose a cold-atom-based magnetometer with spin squeezing that can measure both the magnitude and the direction of an arbitrary magnetic field. For experimentally accessible parameters, we show that the technique described above could potentially achieve a sensitivity nearly two orders of magnitude higher than that of the best existing magnetometers.

Li, Jinyang [Northwestern U.] (ORCID:0000000194328↗

DOE OSTI2025

Shaping dark photon spectral distortions

The cosmic microwave background (CMB) spectrum is an extraordinary tool for exploring physics beyond the Standard Model. The exquisite precision of its measurement makes it particularly sensitive to small effects caused by hidden sector interactions. In particular, CMB spectral distortions can unveil the existence of dark photons which are kinetically coupled to the standard photon. In this work, we use the COBE-FIRAS dataset to derive accurate and robust limits on photon-to-dark-photon oscillations for a large range of dark photon masses, from 10$^{−10}$ to 10$^{−4}$ eV. We consider in detail the redshift dependence of the bounds, computing CMB distortions due to photon injection/removal using a Green’s function method. Our treatment improves on previous results, which had set limits studying energy injection/removal into baryons rather than photon injection/removal, or ignoring the redshift evolution of distortions. The difference between our treatment and previous ones is particularly noticeable in the predicted spectral shape of the distortions, a smoking gun signature for photon-to-dark-photon oscillations. The characterization of the spectral shape is crucial for future CMB missions, which could improve the present sensitivity by orders of magnitude, exploring regions of the dark photon parameter space that are otherwise difficult to access [inline-graphic not available: see fulltext].

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Catalytic resonance theory for parametric uncertainty of programmable catalysis

Microkinetic models are useful tools for screening catalytic materials; however, errors in their input parameters can lead to significant uncertainty in model predictions of catalyst performance. Here, in this work, we investigate the impact of linear scaling and Brønsted-Evans-Polanyi relation parametric uncertainty on microkinetic predictions of programmable-catalyst performance. Two case studies are considered: a generic A-to-B prototype reaction and the oxygen evolution reaction (OER). The results show that error-unaware models can accurately predict trends and, for the prototype reaction, values of optimal waveform parameters. The specific model parameters driving output uncertainty are identified via variance-based global sensitivity analysis. However, predictions of dynamic rate enhancement can decrease when uncertainty is propagated into the models. In both cases, we identify operating conditions where the programmable catalyst achieves a rate enhancement of at least one order of magnitude despite parametric uncertainty in the model, supporting programmable catalysis as a viable strategy for exceeding the Sabatier limit.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2026

Transient uncertainty quantification and Global Sensitivity Analysis of the open-source Molten Chloride Reactor Experiment (MCRE) using GP-PCA surrogate models

Uncertainties in the thermophysical properties of molten salts impact both the steady-state and transient behavior of Molten Salt Reactors (MSRs). In this work, we aim to quantify the influence of such uncertainties on the transient operation of the Molten Chloride Reactor Experiment (MCRE), utilizing the open-source specifications provided for this reactor. Seven representative transient scenarios are considered. For each scenario, we evaluate the impact of thermophysical property uncertainties on four key multiphysics model output variables of interest (VoIs): maximum power density, maximum fuel temperature, maximum reflector temperature, and average fuel velocity magnitude. In addition, we perform a Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) by computing Sobol’ indices for the uncertain input parameters to determine their contribution to the variability of each VoI. Conducting GSA is computationally intensive due to the large number of required evaluations of the high-fidelity multiphysics model. To mitigate this cost, we develop a surrogate modeling framework that combines Gaussian Process (GP) regression with Principal Component Analysis (PCA), enabling efficient sample generation for the GSA. Our results show that for energy-related VoIs, thermal conductivity is the dominant contributor to uncertainty. In contrast, for flow-related VoIs, density and dynamic viscosity are the primary sources of uncertainty. The specific heat of the fuel salt was found to play a secondary role in the transient analyses.

42 - ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Detection of bosenovae with quantum sensors on Earth and in space

In a broad class of theories, the accumulation of ultralight dark matter (ULDM) with particles of mass 10 − 22 eV < m ϕ < 1 eV leads to the formation of long-lived bound states known as boson stars. When the ULDM exhibits self-interactions, prodigious bursts of energy carried by relativistic bosons are released from collapsing boson stars in bosenova explosions. We extensively explore the potential reach of terrestrial and space-based experiments for detecting transient signatures of emitted relativistic bursts of scalar particles, including ULDM coupled to photons, electrons, and gluons, capturing a wide range of motivated theories. For the scenario of relaxion ULDM, we demonstrate that upcoming experiments and technology such as nuclear clocks as well as space-based interferometers will be able to sensitively probe orders of magnitude in the ULDM coupling-mass parameter space, challenging to study otherwise, by detecting signatures of transient bosenova events. Detection of a bosenova event may also give information about microphysics properties of ϕ that would otherwise be difficult with typical direct detection methods. Our analysis can be readily extended to different scenarios of relativistic scalar particle emission. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Arakawa, Jason (ORCID:0000000237889486)↗