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DOE OSTI2024

Small-scale signatures of primordial non-Gaussianity in k-nearest neighbour cumulative distribution functions

ABSTRACT Searches for primordial non-Gaussianity in cosmological perturbations are a key means of revealing novel primordial physics. However, robustly extracting signatures of primordial non-Gaussianity from non-linear scales of the late-time Universe is an open problem. In this paper, we apply k-Nearest Neighbour cumulative distribution functions, kNN-CDFs, to the quijote-png simulations to explore the sensitivity of kNN-CDFs to primordial non-Gaussianity. An interesting result is that for halo samples with $M_\mathrm{ h}\langle 10^{14}$ M$_\odot$ $h^{-1}$, the kNN-CDFs respond to equilateral PNG in a manner distinct from the other parameters. This persists in the galaxy catalogues in redshift space and can be differentiated from the impact of galaxy modelling, at least within the halo occupation distribution (HOD) framework considered here. kNN-CDFs are related to counts-in-cells and, through mapping a subset of the kNN-CDF measurements into the count-in-cells picture, we show that our results can be modelled analytically. A caveat of the analysis is that we only consider the HOD framework, including assembly bias. It will be interesting to validate these results with other techniques for modelling the galaxy–halo connection, e.g. (hybrid) effective field theory or semi-analytical methods.

Coulton, William R. (ORCID:0000000212973673)↗

DOE OSTI2026

Charging Hub Scenario Sheet Screenshot

The Excel-based CHECT tool estimates the LCOC ($/kWh) by charger type (Level 1, Level 2, and DC fast charging) for a given charging hub scenario. CHECT requires users to input certain charging hub scenario parameters, including the number of chargers, daily utilization, and charger replacement frequency by charger type. Additional inputs such as the charging schedule, local utility rates, capital/operational costs, and financial inputs can be customized by the user, or the tool can generate results using appropriate default values from literature for the charging hub scenario and service location(s). Using the above inputs, CHECT performs a robust techno-economic analysis to generate the LCOC by charger type, broken down by cost category (e.g., capital, operational, utility, taxes) for various combinations of charging hub types (multiunit dwelling or public) and ownership models (residential, utility, or private company). It also outputs the annual discounted cash flows and determines the most sensitive input variables. In addition, the tool allows users to easily compare the LCOC across various ownership models or across different states.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2025

Energy storage in combined gas-electric energy transitions models: The case of California

California’s vision for a net-zero future by 2045 relies heavily on variable renewable energy systems. Thus, energy storage - particularly long-duration storage - could play a fundamental role in reliably supplying low-carbon electricity. We study energy storage using the BRIDGES model, a combined gas-electric capacity expansion model for California across multiple investment periods (2025-2045), modeled with progressively decreasing carbon emission targets to a zero emissions by 2045. This least-cost optimization model includes renewable gas production via power-to-gas, long-term storage of energy in gaseous form, electric energy storage such as through batteries and hydrogen storage, and renewable energy generation, all with capacity tracking and investment. Multiple scenarios are evaluated to examine the sensitivity of the optimal storage portfolio to system-level and sector-level parameters. The scenario results show that all electric energy storage systems - which vary in storage duration - are deployed and required in a net-zero California in 2045, amounting to around 75 GW of storage capacity. Lithium ion systems make up approximately 80% of this power capacity and supply most short-run storage needs. Hydrogen storage - in the form of a power-to-gas-to-power system - emerges as a replacement to conventional natural gas storage, comprising most of the total energy storage capacity (~ 4 TWh). This capacity is less than 5% of the current natural gas storage capacity (94 TWh), indicating sufficient room for repurposing part of the gas infrastructure. A demand-side sensitivity analysis proves that higher electricity demand correlates with more builds of Li-ion batteries, while higher industrial heat demand leads to more builds of long-duration storage systems in a net-zero economy. Furthermore, power-to-gas systems satisfy part of the industrial heat demand by locally supplying renewable gas, which overtakes the traditional centralized gas storage and transfers through pipelines, casting significant doubts on the future of the large-scale gas infrastructure.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Spectral line-shape in collinear laser spectroscopy after atomic charge exchange

Collinear laser spectroscopy experiments on fast, neutral beams have been extensively used for studies on short-lived radioactive nuclei, taking advantage of its high sensitivity. The resulting resonance line-shape is known to show significant distortion, due to the energy exchange during the charge-exchange neutralization process, which can cause large systematic uncertainty in the determined centroid. A model for the line shape was constructed and simulated to be compared to measured Al, Si, and Ni hyperfine spectra. It is shown that the distortion is caused mainly by the transfer of electron into many different energy levels in the projectile atom and subsequent decays, rather than secondary inelastic collisions, which were often assumed in the line shape analysis before. Furthermore, the model can also be applied to other projectile–alkali pairs, providing a reliable line-shape with less fitting parameters than conventional phenomenological models.

Atom↗

DOE OSTI2024

Inverse design for waveguide dispersion with a differentiable mode solver

Inverse design of optical components based on adjoint sensitivity analysis has the potential to address the most challenging photonic engineering problems. However, existing inverse design tools based on finite-difference-time-domain (FDTD) models are poorly suited for optimizing waveguide modes for adiabatic transformation or perturbative coupling, which lies at the heart of many important photonic devices. Among these, dispersion engineering of optical waveguides is especially challenging in ultrafast and nonlinear optical applications involving broad optical bandwidths and frequency-dependent anisotropic dielectric material response. In this work, we develop gradient back-propagation through a general-purpose electromagnetic eigenmode solver and use it to demonstrate waveguide dispersion optimization for second harmonic generation with maximized phase-matching bandwidth. This optimization of three design parameters converges in eight steps, reducing the computational cost of optimization by ∼100x compared to exhaustive search and identifying new designs for broadband optical frequency doubling of laser sources in the 1.3–1.4 µm wavelength range. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the computational cost of gradient back-propagation is independent of the number of parameters, as required for optimization of complex geometries. This technique enables practical inverse design for a broad range of previously intractable photonic devices.

Gray, Dodd (ORCID:000000030469599X)↗

DOE OSTI2026

Understanding neutrinos with accelerator beams and liquid argon time-projection chambers: ICARUS and DUNE

A global program of experiments has worked towards characterizing neutrino oscillation over the past few decades. However, important parameters remain to be measured, and mysteries remain to be elucidated. Current and upcoming experiments are targeting the open questions and probing the consistency of the neutrino oscillation paradigm. Likewise, the liquid argon (LAr) time-projection chamber (TPC) has emerged as a sensitive particle detection technology for neutrino experiments. A current generation of LAr TPC detectors are being used to study neutrinos while also gaining important experience in operating and analyzing with this technology. SBND, MicroBooNE, and ICARUS have collected or are collecting data from beams at Fermilab (near Chicago) to explore the possibility of a sterile neutrino and/or other beyond Standard Model (BSM) physics. SBND and ICARUS will be used to conduct a two-detector analysis as part of the Short Baseline Neutrino (SBN) Program. Additionally, these detectors are enabling important neutrino interaction studies necessary to prepare for the next generation of oscillation experiments. One such oscillation experiment that will come online over the next years is the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE), which will install multiple 10 kiloton LAr TPCs underground in South Dakota (south of Saskatchewan) to conduct oscillation measurements with neutrinos originating in a beamline at Fermilab. A detector complex will be installed at Fermilab as well, to study the beam before the expected flavour oscillations. This “near detector” will also employ a LAr TPC, with a segmented and pixel-based design, as well as other technologies to constrain uncertainties in the oscillation measurement by characterizing the beam and neutrino interactions. This talk will discuss the ICARUS and DUNE experiments, the LAr TPC detector technology, and the efforts to realize and leverage these experiments to better understand the properties of neutrinos.

Howard, Bruce L. [Fermilab]↗

DOE OSTI2026

Modeling the contributions to acoustic nonlinearity from complex dislocation networks using 3D dislocation dynamics

Nonlinear ultrasonic parameters are highly sensitive to microstructural features that affect macroscale material behavior, providing a nondestructive means to characterize their evolution. Although dislocations are known to be a strong source of acoustic nonlinearity, establishing quantitative links between the acoustic nonlinearity parameter (β), measured via Second Harmonic Generation, and dislocation morphology—such as dislocation length and density—remains an open challenge. This work advances the numerical modeling of dislocation–β relationships using 3D dislocation dynamics (DD) simulations in two approaches: a “static” method computing strain and stress fields from dislocation configurations in the absence of external loading, and a “quasi-static” method to estimate β from the curvature of dislocation lines under applied load. First, the static method is combined with finite element analysis to investigate a recent assertion that heterogeneous initial strain fields can induce higher harmonic generation in a linear elastic medium; the present results do not corroborate this outcome. Then, the quasi-static method is applied to multiple-dislocation scenarios through parametric studies, revealing behaviors not predicted by analytical models, such as the competing interactions of edge and screw dislocations and the significant influence of applied stress on β. Finally, the simulations are used to model SHG experimental results and validate the hypothesis that β can decrease during plastic deformation, despite increasing dislocation density. As the DD code used here is open-source, it provides a practical platform for future investigation into microstructure–β relationships important to the interpretation of SHG results.

Materials science↗

DOE OSTI2025

Shrub Expansion Simulations at Trail Valley Creek Tundra site using E3SM Land Model (ELM) Arctic-focused Version

The warming of the Arctic is causing substantial compositional, structural, and functional changes in tundra vegetation including shrub and densification in parts of the Arctic. Assessing the impact of these changes in vegetation composition on the Arctic’s carbon and energy budgets is important to constrain projected local and global surface-atmosphere exchanges. We conduct a sensitivity analysis of the projected surface energy fluxes, soil carbon pools, and carbon dioxide fluxes (net ecosystem exchange, gross primary production, and ecosystem respiration) between present day and 2100 to different shrub expansion rates and air temperature increases under future emission scenarios (intermediate – RCP4.5, and high – RCP8.5) using the Arctic-focused version of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model (ELM). We focus on Trail Valley Creek (TVC), a mineral upland tundra site located in the western Canadian Arctic, which is experiencing tall shrub densification and expansion. In this study, we run TVC under two different warming scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5 and simulate different shrubification rates projected until year 2100. In this repository, we include all the forcing, input, parameters, and output data corresponding to all the simulations performed. flmd.csv includes a detailed description of the datasets files.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Techno-Economic Evaluation of Electrified Vehicle Options in Drayage Fleets

The electrification of drayage fleets offers potential economic and operational benefits, but the financial viability of electrified vehicles remains sensitive to battery cost, energy price, and fleet usage patterns. While total cost of ownership (TCO) is a useful benchmark, fleet operators and investors are equally concerned with investment performance metrics such as payback period (PB) and Internal Rate of Return (IRR), which better reflect financial risks and investment return timelines. This study develops a unified techno-economic framework that jointly evaluates TCO, PB, and IRR to determine when electrified trucks become cost-effective alternatives to diesel trucks. Building on a previously developed cost modeling tool and using real-world telematics data from a Class 8 drayage fleet at the Port of Savannah, the analysis incorporates projected battery cost trajectories, electricity and diesel price trends, vehicle efficiency improvements, and multiple battery capacities. Parameter ranges reflect widely cited projections and observed drayage-duty-cycle variability. A surrogate-modeling method approximates economic performance across thousands of battery cost–electricity price combinations, enabling high-resolution identification of conditions that achieve TCO parity, acceptable PB thresholds, and target IRR levels. Additionally, the study estimates the evolving share of the fleet that can feasibly electrify over time under multiple economic metrics. This integrated framework offers a novel, data-driven approach to inform risk-aware decision-making for fleet electrification and supports investment planning under evolving cost and operational conditions.

Sun, Ruixiao [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000341768676)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Assessing the Sensitivity of Pourbaix Diagrams to Computational Protocols: Electrochemical Stability of Ni Oxides as a Case Study

Pourbaix diagrams stand as a useful tool in assessing and visualizing materials’ electrochemical stability and are widely used for electrocatalyst design. However, their reliability hinges on the accuracy of the chemical potentials of involved phases, which may bear uncertainties and can be significantly impacted by decision-making steps in the computational protocol. Here, this study introduces a robust sensitivity analysis framework, exemplified through a detailed examination of the computational Pourbaix diagram of Ni, the oxides of which are used as high-activity and cost-friendly catalysts for many electrochemical reactions. Quantities of interest derived from the Pourbaix diagram include the appearance and stability domain of the catalytically active Ni oxide phases along with the onset electrochemical potentials of phase transitions. These metrics can guide the design of operational conditions for Ni oxide electrocatalysts. We find that the employed DFT exchange-correlation functional has the most significant influence on the computed Pourbaix diagram. Uncertainties on crystal structures, along with their related ab initio energetics, are also found to affect the size of the phase stability domain. Higher-order coupling among input parameters is found to play a crucial role in influencing the appearance and distribution of Ni phases in the diagram. Our findings suggest a need to consider variations and uncertainties associated with the computational procedures on predicted Pourbaix diagrams for materials design.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Failure Analysis–Informed Risk Assessment Framework for Geological Carbon Storage Using Numerical Simulation and Machine Learning

Geological carbon storage (GCS) is recognized as a critical technology for achieving large-scale reductions in anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions. Ensuring long-term containment and safety requires robust risk assessment frameworks that account for geological uncertainty and identify potential failure scenarios. Among various indicators, the area of review (AoR) serves as a key metric for evaluating storage performance, regulatory compliance, and monitoring design, as it delineates the spatial extent impacted by pressure buildup and plume migration. However, conventional AoR-based risk assessments typically perturb parameters within narrow uncertainty bounds, potentially overlooking rare but high-impact events arising from extreme geological conditions. In this study, we present a failure analysis–informed risk assessment framework for large-scale GCS projects to improve site prescreening and monitoring design. A suite of 300 numerical simulations was generated using stochastic geological models that vary five key parameters: net-to-gross ratio, anisotropy azimuth, porosity multiplier, permeability multiplier, and vertical-to-horizontal permeability ratio. Among these, 200 realizations represent normal geological uncertainty, while 100 additional cases explore extreme yet plausible conditions for failure-case analysis. The AoR was simulated and computed from pressure and CO 2 saturation fields, where the baseline AoR boundary, representing the extent predicted under typical geological uncertainty, was defined as the union of 200 normal-range simulations, and failure was identified when extreme-range cases exceeded this baseline. Results show that incorporating broader parameter uncertainty produces significantly larger AoR extents, underscoring the potential underestimation of risk under conventional uncertainty ranges. Furthermore, spatial probability maps derived from failure-induced AoR exceedance identify regions requiring enhanced monitoring attention. Various machine learning (ML)–based classifiers were developed to predict failure occurrence from geological parameters, with the random forest model achieving the highest performance (F1-score of 0.986). Consistent findings from correlation coefficient, feature importance, and Sobol sensitivity analyses reveal that low net-to-gross ratios and permeability multipliers are the dominant risk drivers, reflecting reduced reservoir connectivity and limited pressure dissipation. Altogether, these results provide a novel framework for risk-informed site prescreening and monitoring design that explicitly considers rare but high-impact geological scenarios in GCS projects.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Design, characterization and shape recovery behavior of 3D/4D printed shape memory polymers (SMPs)

Shape memory polymers (SMPs) represent a paradigm shift in material science, uniquely capable of undergoing reversible shape transformations triggered by external stimuli, positioning them as pivotal in developing next-generation biomedical devices, aerospace components, and adaptive structures. Extensive research has been done on SMPs with a major focus on high-temperature programming methods, which can limit energy efficiency and applicability with temperature-sensitive materials. Additionally, while various SMP blends have demonstrated great potential, limited work has been done on the suitability for 3D printing these materials, particularly under high-strain and ambient temperature programming conditions. In this study, a three-component optimized SMP composition was evaluated by 3D printing via the Material Extrusion (MEX) technique and investigating its ambient temperature-programming behavior at high strains. The SMP formulation studied was a tailored blend of thermoplastic polyurethane (TPU), polycaprolactone (PCL), and an octadecane diol-based copolymer (OBC) that exhibits robust shape memory behavior, high strain tolerance, and efficient force generation. Rigorous thermal, mechanical, and shape recovery analyses, along with optimized printing parameters and consistent shape recovery rates of up to 90%, were achieved under dynamic mechanical analysis (DMA), even under ambient programming conditions. This work demonstrates the SMP composition’s potential for adaptive, self-deployable systems with 4D printing characteristics ideal for bio-inspired structures and artificial muscle fibers.

Sudan, Kavish [University of Louisville, KY]↗

DOE OSTI2026

Competing magnetic phases in Cr 3+𝛿 ⁢Te 4 are spatially segregated

Cr 1+𝑥⁢ Te 2 is a self-intercalated van der Waals system that is of current interest for its room-temperature room-temperature ferromagnetic (FM) phases and tunable topological properties. In bulk samples, the strain from the interstitial Cr ions leads to distinct structural phases for different ranges of 𝑥. Early neutron powder diffraction (NPD) measurements on the monoclinic phase Cr 3 ⁢Te 4 (𝑥=0.5) presented evidence for competing FM and antiferromagnetic (AFM) phases. Here we apply neutron diffraction to a single crystal of Cr 3+𝛿 ⁢Te 4 with 𝛿=−0.10 and discover that it consists of two distinct monoclinic phases, one with FM order below 𝑇 C ≈321 K and another that develops AFM order below 𝑇 N ≈86 K. In contrast, we find that a crystal with 𝛿=−0.26 exhibits only FM order below 𝑇 C ≈285 K. The single-crystal analysis is complemented by results obtained with NPD, x-ray powder diffraction, and transmission electron microscopy (TEM) measurements on the 𝛿=−0.10 composition. From observations of spontaneous magnetostriction of opposite sign at 𝑇 C and 𝑇 N , along with the TEM evidence for both monoclinic phases in a single thin ( ≈100 nm) grain, we conclude that the two phases must have a fine-grained ( ≲100 nm) intergrowth character, as might occur from high-temperature spinodal decomposition during the growth process. Calculations of the relaxed lattice structures for the FM and AFM phases with density functional theory provide a rationalization of the observed spontaneous magnetostrictions. Correlations between the magnitude and orientation of the magnetic moments with lattice parameter variation demonstrate that the magnetic orders are sensitive to strain, thus explaining why magnetic ordering temperatures and anisotropies can be different between bulk and thin-film samples, when the latter are subject to epitaxial strain. Our results point to the need to investigate the supposed coexistence FM and AFM phases reported elsewhere in the Cr 1+𝑥 ⁢Te 2 system, such as in the Cr 5 ⁢Te 8 phase (𝑥=0.25).

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2025

Computational materials reliability assessment of hydrogen fueled gas turbine power generation engines

The use of blended fuel sources in land based gas turbine engines drives variations in the resulting operational profile (temperatures and pressures) which can impact engine reliability. Furthermore, variability in the manufacture of components affects the resulting microstructure which directly impacts material performance and reliability. Currently, data-driven models are typically used for maintaining and inspecting fleets of engines. Without explicitly capturing material and operational sources of variability conservatism must be used in developing component-level reliability models. Therefore, there exists an opportunity to use information from materials-scale physics models to better inform reliability modeling and reduce conservatism; the impact is more cost-efficient operation and maintenance of current and future fleets. Specifically, this work establishes a computational framework for evaluating the probabilistic high temperature creep performance of hot-section Ni-based superalloys where uncertainty comes from both microstructural and operational variability. A novel high-fidelity physics model which phenomenologically captures grain-boundary sensitive phenomena has been established. A probabilistic calibration procedure was used to calibrate the model and capture uncertainty in the parameterized model coefficients. A design of experiments methodology was established for identifying informative microstructural digital representations for suitable for forward model evaluation. Results show that training a machine-learning surrogate using this design criteria outperforms random selection of microstructural representations. Finally, two surrogate models were developed: (1) a deterministic surrogate model which predicts the local field response given microstructure, constitutive model parameters, and operating conditions (stress, temperature) and (2) a probabilistic model, where uncertainty comes from constitutive law uncertainty, built using denoising diffusion probabilistic models which samples responses given (1) microstructure and (2) operating conditions. These surrogate models enable partner Siemens Energy to rapidly perform UQ analysis specific to creep deformation across a range of microstructures and operating conditions. The impact is that these ML and physics codes can be used to establish more advanced reliability models for the inspection, servicing, and maintenance of land based gas turbine engines.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Toward real-time optimization through model reduction and model discrepancy sensitivities

Optimization problems arise in a range of scenarios, from optimal control to model parameter estimation. In many applications, such as the development of digital twins, it is essential to solve these optimization problems within wall-clock-time limitations. However, this is often unattainable for complex systems, such as those modeled by nonlinear partial differential equations. One strategy for mitigating this issue is to construct a reduced-order model (ROM) that enables more rapid optimization. In particular, the use of nonintrusive ROMs—those that do not require access to the full-order model at evaluation time—is popular because they facilitate the computation of optimization solutions within the wall-clock time requirements. However, the optimization solution will be unreliable if the iterates move outside the ROM training data. This article proposes the use of hyper-differential sensitivity analysis with respect to model discrepancy (HDSA-MD) as a computationally efficient tool to augment ROM-constrained optimization and improve its reliability. The proposed approach consists of two phases: (i) an offline phase where several full-order model evaluations are computed to train the ROM, and (ii) an online phase where a ROM-constrained optimization problem is solved, a limited number of full-order model evaluations are computed, and HDSA-MD is used to enhance the optimization solution. Numerical results are demonstrated for two examples, atmospheric contaminant control and wildfire ignition location estimation, in which a ROM is trained offline using inaccurate atmospheric data. In conclusion, the HDSA-MD update yields a significant improvement in the ROM-constrained optimization solution using only one full-order model evaluation online with corrected atmospheric data.

PDE-constrained optimization↗

DOE OSTI2024

An extension of Thwaites’ method for turbulent boundary layers

Thwaites developed an approximate method for determining the evolution of laminar boundary layers. The approximation follows from an assumption that the growth of a laminar boundary layer in the presence of pressure gradients could be parameterized solely as a function of the Holstein–Bohlen flow parameter, thus reducing the von Kármán momentum integral to a first-order ordinary differential equation. This method is useful for the analysis of laminar flows, and in computational potential flow solvers to account for the viscous effects. In this work, an approximate method for determining the momentum thickness of a two-dimensional, turbulent boundary layer is proposed following Thwaites’ work. It is shown that the method provides good estimates of the momentum thickness for multiple boundary layers, including both favourable and adverse pressure gradient effects, up to the point of separation. In the limit of high Reynolds numbers, it is possible to derive a criterion for the onset of separation from the proposed model, which is shown to be in agreement with prior empirical observations. The sensitivity of the separation location with respect to upstream perturbations is also analysed through this model for the NASA/Boeing speed bump and the transonic Bachalo–Johnson bump.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Accelerating Hamiltonian Monte Carlo for Bayesian inference in neural networks and neural operators

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is a powerful and accurate method to sample from the posterior distribution in Bayesian inference. However, HMC techniques are computationally demanding for Bayesian neural networks due to the high dimensionality of the network’s parameter space and the non-convexity of their posterior distributions. Therefore, various approximation techniques, such as variational inference (VI) or stochastic gradient MCMC, are often employed to infer the posterior distribution of the network parameters. Such approximations introduce inaccuracies in the inferred distributions, resulting in unreliable uncertainty estimates. In this work, we propose a hybrid approach that combines inexpensive VI and accurate HMC methods to efficiently and accurately quantify uncertainties in neural networks and neural operators. The proposed approach leverages an initial VI training on the full network. We examine the influence of individual parameters on the prediction uncertainty, which shows that a large proportion of the parameters do not contribute substantially to uncertainty in the network predictions. This information is then used to significantly reduce the dimension of the parameter space, and HMC is performed only for the subset of network parameters that strongly influence prediction uncertainties. This yields a framework for accelerating the full batch HMC for posterior inference in neural networks. We demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of the proposed framework on deep neural networks and operator networks, showing that inference can be performed for large networks with tens to hundreds of thousands of parameters. Finally, we show that this method can effectively learn surrogates for complex physical systems by modeling the operator that maps from upstream conditions to wall-pressure data on a cone in hypersonic flow.

Bayesian inference↗

DOE OSTI2024

Experimental design for the Marine Ice Sheet–Ocean Model Intercomparison Project – phase 2 (MISOMIP2)

The Marine Ice Sheet–Ocean Model Intercomparison Project – phase 2 (MISOMIP2) is a natural progression of previous and ongoing model intercomparison exercises that have focused on the simulation of ice-sheet and ocean processes in Antarctica. The previous exercises motivate the move towards realistic configurations, as well as more diverse model parameters and resolutions. The main objective of MISOMIP2 is to investigate the performance of existing ocean and coupled ice-sheet–ocean models in a range of Antarctic environments through comparisons to observational data. We will assess the status of ice-sheet–ocean modelling as a community and identify common characteristics of models that are best able to capture observed features. As models are highly tuned based on present-day data, we will also compare their sensitivity to prescribed abrupt atmospheric perturbations leading to either very warm or slightly warmer ocean conditions compared to the present day. The approach of MISOMIP2 is to welcome contributions of models as they are, including global and regional configurations, but we request standardized variables and common grids for the outputs. We target the analysis at two specific regions, the Amundsen Sea and the Weddell Sea, since they describe two different ocean environments and have been relatively well observed compared to other areas of Antarctica. An observational “MIPkit” synthesizing existing ocean and ice-sheet observations for a common period is provided to evaluate ocean and ice-sheet models in these two regions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗