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At least 253 records · Page 14

On the estimation of climatological Z-R relationships

A statistical framework for climatological Z-R parameter estimation is developed and simulation experiments are conducted to examine sampling properties of the estimators. Both parametric and nonparametric models are considered. For parametric models, it is shown that Z-R parameters can be estimated by maximum likelihood, a procedure with optimal large sample properties. A general nonparametric framework for climatological Z-R estimation is also developed. Nonparametric procedures are attractive because of their flexibility in dealing with certain types of measurement errors common to radar data. Simulation experiments show that even under favorable assumptions on error characteristics of radar and raingages, large datasets are required to obtain accurate Z-R parameter estimates. Another important conclusion is that estimation results are generally quite sensitive to radar and raingage measurement thresholds. For fixed sample size, the simulation results can be used to provide quantitative assessments of the accuracy of Z-R model parameter estimates. These results are particularly useful for error analysis of precipitation products that are derived using climatological Z-R relations. One example is the large-area rainfall estimates derived using the height-area rainfall threshold (HART) technique.

Krajewski, Witold F.↗

Estimation Model of Spacecraft Parameters and Cost Based on a Statistical Analysis of COMPASS Designs

The Collaborative Modeling for Parametric Assessment of Space Systems (COMPASS) team at Glenn Research Center has performed integrated system analysis of conceptual spacecraft mission designs since 2006 using a multidisciplinary concurrent engineering process. The set of completed designs was archived in a database, to allow for the study of relationships between design parameters. Although COMPASS uses a parametric spacecraft costing model, this research investigated the possibility of using a top-down approach to rapidly estimate the overall vehicle costs. This paper presents the relationships between significant design variables, including breakdowns of dry mass, wet mass, and cost. It also develops a model for a broad estimate of these parameters through basic mission characteristics, including the target location distance, the payload mass, the duration, the delta-v requirement, and the type of mission, propulsion, and electrical power. Finally, this paper examines the accuracy of this model in regards to past COMPASS designs, with an assessment of outlying spacecraft, and compares the results to historical data of completed NASA missions.

cost modeling↗

Parametric Subsonic Engine Model

Creating a rubberized engine model and exploring different approaches for converging over multiple design points.

Aeronautics↗

Weight and the Future of Space Flight Hardware Cost Modeling

Weight has been used as the primary input variable for cost estimating almost as long as there have been parametric cost models. While there are good reasons for using weight, serious limitations exist. These limitations have been addressed by multi-variable equations and trend analysis in models such as NAFCOM, PRICE, and SEER; however, these models have not be able to address the significant time lags that can occur between the development of similar space flight hardware systems. These time lags make the cost analyst's job difficult because insufficient data exists to perform trend analysis, and the current set of parametric models are not well suited to accommodating process improvements in space flight hardware design, development, build and test. As a result, people of good faith can have serious disagreement over the cost for new systems. To address these shortcomings, new cost modeling approaches are needed. The most promising approach is process based (sometimes called activity) costing. Developing process based models will require a detailed understanding of the functions required to produce space flight hardware combined with innovative approaches to estimating the necessary resources. Particularly challenging will be the lack of data at the process level. One method for developing a model is to combine notional algorithms with a discrete event simulation and model changes to the total cost as perturbations to the program are introduced. Despite these challenges, the potential benefits are such that efforts should be focused on developing process based cost models.

Prince, Frank A.↗

Predicting Maximum Temperatures of a Li-ion Battery on a Simulated Flight Profile using a Model-based Prognostics

One of the challenges in using Li-ion packs in aeronautics is their safety, and thermal runaway (TR) is a major concern. The current engineering solutions to prevent a Li-ion pack from a catastrophic TR require additional mass and volume to isolate cells. The excess mass could be reduced by improving detection and, thus, preventing a TR event. One of the possible early warning indicators of a TR is crossing a threshold temperature. We have developed an approach, based on the Unscented Kalman Filter (UKF), to predict the likelihood of reaching the threshold temperature for simulated flight profiles. The current battery prognostics algorithms for aerospace predict state-of-charge (SOC) and end-of-life (EOL) [1]. We extended this two-level algorithm to predict the maximum temperature during discharge. The amount of heat generated in a cell depends on factors such as cell chemistry, cell packaging, total cycles, operating temperature, and abuse history [2]. Our semi-empirical thermal model depends on three phenomenological parameters which account for those factors. In addition, a two-parameter reduced-order model is developed to predict the temperature rise for short bursts of “random-walk” (RW) discharge current sequence, which simulates a flight's current-loading profile. The performance of these models on different datasets and types of current loading will be presented. To predict the maximal temperatures for future cycles we must estimate the evolution of thermal parameters as the batteries age. It is found that the parameters of the 3-parametric thermal model cannot be estimated only from the RW data. To address the issue, we will present two alternative approaches: i) expanding the datasets to include discharge profiles beyond RWs; ii) model reduction to a two-parametric model. The two approaches will be illustrated by an application to the cycling data from a commercial LG 18650 cell. References: 1. M. Daigle, C.S. Kulkarni, End-of-discharge and End-of-life Prediction in Lithium-ion Batteries with Electrochemistry-based Aging Models, in: AIAA Infotech @ Aerospace, American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, San Diego, California, USA, 2016. 2. M. Börner, et. al, Correlation of aging and thermal stability of commercial 18650-type lithium ion batteries, Journal of Power Sources. 342 (2017) 382–392.

Thermal runaway↗

Finite element model reduction application to parametric studies and optimization of rotorcraft structures

As a result of this work, a reduction procedure has been developed which can be applied to large finite element model of airframe type structures. This procedure, which is tailored to be used with MSC/NASTRAN finite element code, is applied to the full airframe dynamic finite element model of AH-64A Attack Helicopter. The applicability of the resulting reduced model to parametric and optimization studies is examined. Through application of the design sensitivity analysis, the viability and efficiency of this reduction technique has been demonstrated in a vibration reduction study.

Hashemi-Kia, M.↗

Uncertainty Models for the Hybrid Parametric Variation Method of Uncertainty Quantification; Analysis

There is some level of uncertainty in every finite element model (FEM), which flows to a level of uncertainty in predicted results. The purpose of uncertainty quantification (UQ) is to provide statistical bounds on prediction accuracy based on model uncertainty. This is distinct from model updating, which attempts to modify models to improve their accuracy. UQ does not improve the accuracy of models, but accepts that the models are inherently inaccurate and attempts to quantify the impact of that inaccuracy on predicted results. Previously, an alternate method for UQ, called the Hybrid Parametric Variation (HPV) method, was applied to Space Launch System (SLS) Hurty/Craig-Bampton (HCB) components to predict system-level statistics for launch vehicle attitude control transfer functions and core stage section loads due to buffet. The HPV method combines a parametric variation of the HCB fixed-interface (FI) modal frequencies with a nonparametric variation (NPV) method that randomly varies the HCB mass and stiffness matrices as Wishart random matrix distributions using random matrix theory (RMT). Alternatively, the most common method for modeling uncertainty in the structural dynamics community is a parametric approach, which varies physical parameters in the model. However, there are several disadvantages associated with the parametric method. Determining a reduced set of parameters that have a significant impact on the system response can be time consuming, and the selected parameter probability distributions are rarely reliably known. Therefore, in practice, the parameters are surrogates for the actual errors, and the link to parameter uncertainty is unknown. Another major drawback is that the uncertainty that can be represented is limited to the form of the nominal FEM. It is the experience of the authors that based on numerous aerospace programs, almost all FEM errors are in form rather than parameter values. This hypothesis is supported by the observation of the authors that it is almost never possible to ‘tune’ a FEM to match modal test results by only modifying model parameters. Model-form uncertainty cannot be directly represented by FEM input parameters nor included in a parametric approach. However, model-form uncertainty can be modeled using RMT, where a probability distribution is developed for the matrix ensemble of interest. The major advantage of the NPV method is that it covers errors in model form. The HPV method anchors uncertainty at the HCB component level to component modal test results by matching the HCB and test modes based on mode descriptions or other methods, and then applying differing levels of frequency variation. The specific variations depend on the confidence to which a component FEM has been validated through modal testing. The NPV method is layered on the frequency variation to match modal test self-orthogonality and cross-orthogonality (XO) results. Once the component uncertainty models are identified, they are assembled, and the uncertainty is propagated to the system level using a Monte Carlo (MC) analysis approach that generates statistics for system-level predictions This provides a UQ method that can be traced to test data, which can be updated as additional data and improved correlated models become available. The purpose of this paper is to collect and present all of the theory for HPV that has been previously published in reports and papers and to present examples of its application. Specifically, component uncertainty models based on the dispersion of corresponding mass and stiffness matrices using proposed test/analysis correlation metrics are investigated. The first example is purely academic so that the true answers are known, and the validity of the HPV method and the corresponding uncertainty models can be determined. The purpose of this paper is to collect and present all of the theory for HPV that has been previously published in reports and papers and to present examples of its application. Specifically, component uncertainty models based on the dispersion of corresponding mass and stiffness matrices using proposed test/analysis correlation metrics are investigated. The first example is purely academic so that the true answers are known, and the validity of the HPV method and the corresponding uncertainty models can be determined. The second example is an application to a component that is design specific to the SLS. Based on this work and other assessments, the HPV method provides another tool to the toolset used for complex system UQ analysis. From experience gathered to date using the HPV method, additional design specific applications must be investigated to provide further confidence in the validity of the HPV method of UQ analysis.

Uncertainty quantification↗

A Parametric Finite-Element Model for Evaluating Segmented Mirrors with Discrete, Edgewise Connectivity

Since future astrophysics missions require space telescopes with apertures of at least 10 meters, there is a need for on-orbit assembly methods that decouple the size of the primary mirror from the choice of launch vehicle. One option is to connect the segments edgewise using mechanisms analogous to damped springs. To evaluate the feasibility of this approach, a parametric ANSYS model that calculates the mode shapes, natural frequencies, and disturbance response of such a mirror, as well as of the equivalent monolithic mirror, has been developed. This model constructs a mirror using rings of hexagonal segments that are either connected continuously along the edges (to form a monolith) or at discrete locations corresponding to the mechanism locations (to form a segmented mirror). As an example, this paper presents the case of a mirror whose segments are connected edgewise by mechanisms analogous to a set of four collocated single-degree-of-freedom damped springs. The results of a set of parameter studies suggest that such mechanisms can be used to create a 15-m segmented mirror that behaves similarly to a monolith, although fully predicting the segmented mirror performance would require incorporating measured mechanism properties into the model. Keywords: segmented mirror, edgewise connectivity, space telescope

Gersh-Range, Jessica A.↗

Study of a tracking and data acquisition system for the 1990's. Volume 3: TDAS Communication Mission Model

A parametric description of the communication channels required between the user spacecraft to be supported and the user ground data systems is developed. Scenarios of mission models, which reflect a range of free flyers vs space platform usage as well as levels of NASA activity and potential support for military missions, and potential channel requirements which identify: (1) bounds on TDAS forward and return link data communication demand, and (2) the additional demand for providing navigation/tracking support are covered.

Mccreary, T.↗

Adjoint Sensitivity Computations for an Embedded-Boundary Cartesian Mesh Method and CAD Geometry

Cartesian-mesh methods are perhaps the most promising approach for addressing the issues of flow solution automation for aerodynamic design problems. In these methods, the discretization of the wetted surface is decoupled from that of the volume mesh. This not only enables fast and robust mesh generation for geometry of arbitrary complexity, but also facilitates access to geometry modeling and manipulation using parametric Computer-Aided Design (CAD) tools. Our goal is to combine the automation capabilities of Cartesian methods with an eficient computation of design sensitivities. We address this issue using the adjoint method, where the computational cost of the design sensitivities, or objective function gradients, is esseutially indepeudent of the number of design variables. In previous work, we presented an accurate and efficient algorithm for the solution of the adjoint Euler equations discretized on Cartesian meshes with embedded, cut-cell boundaries. Novel aspects of the algorithm included the computation of surface shape sensitivities for triangulations based on parametric-CAD models and the linearization of the coupling between the surface triangulation and the cut-cells. The objective of the present work is to extend our adjoint formulation to problems involving general shape changes. Central to this development is the computation of volume-mesh sensitivities to obtain a reliable approximation of the objective finction gradient. Motivated by the success of mesh-perturbation schemes commonly used in body-fitted unstructured formulations, we propose an approach based on a local linearization of a mesh-perturbation scheme similar to the spring analogy. This approach circumvents most of the difficulties that arise due to non-smooth changes in the cut-cell layer as the boundary shape evolves and provides a consistent approximation tot he exact gradient of the discretized abjective function. A detailed gradient accurace study is presented to verify our approach. Thereafter, we focus on a shape optimization problem for an Apollo-like reentry capsule. The optimization seeks to enhance the lift-to-drag ratio of the capsule by modifyjing the shape of its heat-shield in conjunction with a center-of-gravity (c.g.) offset. This multipoint and multi-objective optimization problem is used to demonstrate the overall effectiveness of the Cartesian adjoint method for addressing the issues of complex aerodynamic design. This abstract presents only a brief outline of the numerical method and results; full details will be given in the final paper.

Nemec, Marian↗

Reentry-Vehicle Shape Optimization Using a Cartesian Adjoint Method and CAD Geometry

A DJOINT solutions of the governing flow equations are becoming increasingly important for the development of efficient analysis and optimization algorithms. A well-known use of the adjoint method is gradient-based shape. Given an objective function that defines some measure of performance, such as the lift and drag functionals, its gradient is computed at a cost that is essentially independent of the number of design variables (e.g., geometric parameters that control the shape). Classic aerodynamic applications of gradient-based optimization include the design of cruise configurations for transonic and supersonic flow, as well as the design of high-lift systems. are perhaps the most promising approach for addressing the issues of flow solution automation for aerodynamic design problems. In these methods, the discretization of the wetted surface is decoupled from that of the volume mesh. This not only enables fast and robust mesh generation for geometry of arbitrary complexity, but also facilitates access to geometry modeling and manipulation using parametric computer-aided design (CAD). In previous work on Cartesian adjoint solvers, Melvin et al. developed an adjoint formulation for the TRANAIR code, which is based on the full-potential equation with viscous corrections. More recently, Dadone and Grossman presented an adjoint formulation for the two-dimensional Euler equations using a ghost-cell method to enforce the wall boundary conditions. In Refs. 18 and 19, we presented an accurate and efficient algorithm for the solution of the adjoint Euler equations discretized on Cartesian meshes with embedded, cut-cell boundaries. Novel aspects of the algorithm were the computation of surface shape sensitivities for triangulations based on parametric-CAD models and the linearization of the coupling between the surface triangulation and the cut-cells. The accuracy of the gradient computation was verified using several three-dimensional test cases, which included design variables such as the free stream parameters and the planform shape of an isolated wing. The objective of the present work is to extend our adjoint formulation to problems involving general shape changes. Factors under consideration include the computation of mesh sensitivities that provide a reliable approximation of the objective function gradient, as well as the computation of surface shape sensitivities based on a direct-CAD interface. We present detailed gradient verification studies and then focus on a shape optimization problem for an Apollo-like reentry vehicle. The goal of the optimization is to enhance the lift-to-drag ratio of the capsule by modifying the shape of its heat-shield in conjunction with a center-of-gravity (c.g.) offset. This multipoint and multi-objective optimization problem is used to demonstrate the overall effectiveness of the Cartesian adjoint method for addressing the issues of complex aerodynamic design.

Nemec, Marian↗

Cost Modeling for Space Optical Telescope Assemblies

Parametric cost models are used to plan missions, compare concepts and justify technology investments. This paper reviews an on-going effort to develop cost modes for space telescopes. This paper summarizes the methodology used to develop cost models and documents how changes to the database have changed previously published preliminary cost models. While the cost models are evolving, the previously published findings remain valid: it costs less per square meter of collecting aperture to build a large telescope than a small telescope; technology development as a function of time reduces cost; and lower areal density telescopes cost more than more massive telescopes.

Stahl, H. Philip↗

A parametric investigation of an existing supersonic relative tip speed propeller noise model

A high tip speed turboprop is being considered as a future energy conservative airplane. The high tip speed of the propeller combined with the cruise speed of the airplane may result in supersonic relative flow on the propeller tips. These supersonic blade sections could generate noise that is a cabin environment problem. An existing supersonic propeller noise model was parametrically investigated to identify and evaluate the noise reduction variables. Both independent and interdependent parameter variations (constant propeller thrust) were performed. The noise reductions indicated by the independent investigation varied from sizable in the case of reducing Mach number to minimal for adjusting the thickness and loading distributions. The noise reduction possibilities of decreasing relative Mach number were further investigated during the interdependent variations. The interdependent investigation indicated that significant noise reductions could be achieved by increasing the propeller diameter and/or increasing the number of propeller blades while maintaining a constant propeller thrust.

Dittmar, J. H.↗

On Parametric Sensitivity of Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes SST Turbulence Model: 2D Hypersonic Shock-Wave Boundary Layer Interactions

Examined is sensitivity of separation extent, wall pressure and heating to variation of primary input flow parameters, such as Mach and Reynolds numbers and shock strength, for 2D and Axisymmetric Hypersonic Shock Wave Turbulent Boundary Layer interactions obtained by Navier-Stokes methods using the SST turbulence model. Baseline parametric sensitivity response is provided in part by comparison with vetted experiments, and in part through updated correlations based on free interaction theory concepts. A recent database compilation of hypersonic 2D shock-wave/turbulent boundary layer experiments extensively used in a prior related uncertainty analysis provides the foundation for this updated correlation approach, as well as for more conventional validation. The primary CFD method for this work is DPLR, one of NASA's real-gas aerothermodynamic production RANS codes. Comparisons are also made with CFL3D, one of NASA's mature perfect-gas RANS codes. Deficiencies in predicted separation response of RANS/SST solutions to parametric variations of test conditions are summarized, along with recommendations as to future turbulence approach.

Hypersonic↗

Rotary engine performance limits predicted by a zero-dimensional model

A parametric study was performed to determine the performance limits of a rotary combustion engine. This study shows how well increasing the combustion rate, insulating, and turbocharging increase brake power and decrease fuel consumption. Several generalizations can be made from the findings. First, it was shown that the fastest combustion rate is not necessarily the best combustion rate. Second, several engine insulation schemes were employed for a turbocharged engine. Performance improved only for a highly insulated engine. Finally, the variability of turbocompounding and the influence of exhaust port shape were calculated. Rotary engines performance was predicted by an improved zero-dimensional computer model based on a model developed at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in the 1980's. Independent variables in the study include turbocharging, manifold pressures, wall thermal properties, leakage area, and exhaust port geometry. Additions to the computer programs since its results were last published include turbocharging, manifold modeling, and improved friction power loss calculation. The baseline engine for this study is a single rotor 650 cc direct-injection stratified-charge engine with aluminum housings and a stainless steel rotor. Engine maps are provided for the baseline and turbocharged versions of the engine.

Bartrand, Timothy A.↗

Development of Parametric Mass and Volume Models for an Aerospace SOFC/Gas Turbine Hybrid System

In aerospace power systems, mass and volume are key considerations to produce a viable design. The utilization of fuel cells is being studied for a commercial aircraft electrical power unit. Based on preliminary analyses, a SOFC/gas turbine system may be a potential solution. This paper describes the parametric mass and volume models that are used to assess an aerospace hybrid system design. The design tool utilizes input from the thermodynamic system model and produces component sizing, performance, and mass estimates. The software is designed such that the thermodynamic model is linked to the mass and volume model to provide immediate feedback during the design process. It allows for automating an optimization process that accounts for mass and volume in its figure of merit. Each component in the system is modeled with a combination of theoretical and empirical approaches. A description of the assumptions and design analyses is presented.

Tornabene, Robert↗

Enabling Parametric Optimal Ascent Trajectory Modeling During Early Phases of Design

During the early phases of engineering design, the costs committed are high, costs incurred are low, and the design freedom is high. It is well documented that decisions made in these early design phases drive the entire design's life cycle. In a traditional paradigm, key design decisions are made when little is known about the design. As the design matures, design changes become more difficult -- in both cost and schedule -- to enact. Indeed, the current capability-based paradigm that has emerged because of the constrained economic environment calls for the infusion of knowledge acquired during later design phases into earlier design phases, i.e. bring knowledge acquired during preliminary and detailed design into pre-conceptual and conceptual design. An area of critical importance to launch vehicle design is the optimization of its ascent trajectory, as the optimal trajectory will be able to take full advantage of the launch vehicle's capability to deliver a maximum amount of payload into orbit. Hence, the optimal ascent trajectory plays an important role in the vehicle's affordability posture as the need for more economically viable access to space solutions are needed in today's constrained economic environment. The problem of ascent trajectory optimization is not a new one. There are several programs that are widely used in industry that allows trajectory analysts to, based on detailed vehicle and insertion orbit parameters, determine the optimal ascent trajectory. Yet, little information is known about the launch vehicle early in the design phase - information that is required of many different disciplines in order to successfully optimize the ascent trajectory. Thus, the current paradigm of optimizing ascent trajectories involves generating point solutions for every change in a vehicle's design parameters. This is often a very tedious, manual, and time-consuming task for the analysts. Moreover, the trajectory design space is highly non-linear and multi-modal due to the interaction of various constraints. Additionally, when these obstacles are coupled with The Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories [1] (POST), an industry standard program to optimize ascent trajectories that is difficult to use, it requires expert trajectory analysts to effectively optimize a vehicle's ascent trajectory. As it has been pointed out, the paradigm of trajectory optimization is still a very manual one because using modern computational resources on POST is still a challenging problem. The nuances and difficulties involved in correctly utilizing, and therefore automating, the program presents a large problem. In order to address these issues, the authors will discuss a methodology that has been developed. The methodology is two-fold: first, a set of heuristics will be introduced and discussed that were captured while working with expert analysts to replicate the current state-of-the-art; secondly, leveraging the power of modern computing to evaluate multiple trajectories simultaneously, and therefore, enable the exploration of the trajectory's design space early during the pre-conceptual and conceptual phases of design. When this methodology is coupled with design of experiments in order to train surrogate models, the authors were able to visualize the trajectory design space, enabling parametric optimal ascent trajectory information to be introduced with other pre-conceptual and conceptual design tools. The potential impact of this methodology's success would be a fully automated POST evaluation suite for the purpose of conceptual and preliminary design trade studies. This will enable engineers to characterize the ascent trajectory's sensitivity to design changes in an arbitrary number of dimensions and for finding settings for trajectory specific variables, which result in optimal performance for a "dialed-in" launch vehicle design. The effort described in this paper was developed for the Advanced Concepts Office [2] at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center

Holt, James B.↗

UVO to Far-IR Mirror Technology Development: Year 2 Status

UVO to Far-IR (UVO-FIR) mirror technology development project is a multiyear effort initiated in Fiscal Year (FY) 2022 to mature the Technology Readiness Level (TRL) of critical technologies required to enable ultra-stable telescope of the Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO) mission. 2023/24 accomplishments include: continued investigations into gravity sag by comparing rotation test vs flip test, quantifying gravity sag as a function of temperature and designing mount for mirror whose G-sag with elevation angle is only coma. Significant progress in developing a methodology for specify optical surface microstructure, contamination cleanliness level and allowable micrometeoroid impacts. Support of HWO. And, a parametric cost model for x-ray telescopes and a parametric volume cost model for normal incidence telescopes.

H. Philip Stahl↗