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Deriving Laws from Ordering Relations

The effect of Richard T. Cox's contribution to probability theory was to generalize Boolean implication among logical statements to degrees of implication, which are manipulated using rules derived from consistency with Boolean algebra. These rules are known as the sum rule, the product rule and Bayes Theorem, and the measure resulting from this generalization is probability. In this paper, I will describe how Cox s technique can be further generalized to include other algebras and hence other problems in science and mathematics. The result is a methodology that can be used to generalize an algebra to a calculus by relying on consistency with order theory to derive the laws of the calculus. My goals are to clear up the mysteries as to why the same basic structure found in probability theory appears in other contexts, to better understand the foundations of probability theory, and to extend these ideas to other areas by developing new mathematics and new physics. The relevance of this methodology will be demonstrated using examples from probability theory, number theory, geometry, information theory, and quantum mechanics.

Knuth, Kevin H.↗

A High-Eccentricity Warm Jupiter Orbiting TOI-4127

We report the discovery of TOI-4127 b, which is a transiting, Jupiter-sized exoplanet on a long period (P=56.39879 +0.00010 -0.00010 days) and a high-eccentricity orbit around a late F-type dwarf star. This warm Jupiter was first detected and identified as a promising candidate from a search for single-transit signals in TESS Sector 20 data and was later characterized as a planet following two subsequent transits (TESS Sectors 26 and 53) and follow-up ground-based RV observations with the NEID and SOPHIE spectrographs. We jointly fit the transit and RV data to constrain the physical (R p =1.096 +0.039 -0.032 R J , M p =2.30 +0.11 -0.11 M J ) and orbital parameters of the exoplanet. Given its high orbital eccentricity (𝓮=0.7471 +0.0078 -0.0086 ), TOI-4127 b is a compelling candidate for studies of warm Jupiter populations and of hot Jupiter formation pathways. We show that the present periastron separation of TOI-4127 b is too large for high-eccentricity tidal migration to circularize its orbit, and that TOI-4127 b is unlikely to be a hot Jupiter progenitor unless it is undergoing angular momentum exchange with an undetected outer companion. Although we find no evidence for an external companion, the available observational data are insufficient to rule out the presence of a perturber that can excite eccentricity oscillations and facilitate tidal migration.

Exoplanet astronomy↗

The X-Ray Core of the Low-Luminosity Radio Galaxy 3C346 and ASCA Spectroscopy to Test BL LAC/Radio Galaxy Unification

Radio galaxies are relatively faint sources for Advanced Spacecraft for Cosmology Astrophysics (ASCA), and so in order to get the best possible results from the observations two things have been necessary, both of which delayed the fast preparation of papers. Firstly, the best possible data screening and background subtraction were necessary to improve the signal-to-noise, and all our several initial analysis trials were discarded in favor of using FTOOLS versions 4.1 and above. Secondly, we found that the ASCA spectra were statistically too poor to discriminate well between non-thermal and thermal models, never mind the mixture of the two which we expected on the basis of our ROSAT spatial separation of components in radio galaxies. This means that in each case we have needed to combine the ASCA spectroscopy with analysis of data from other X-ray or radio observations in order to exploit the ASCA data to the full. Our analysis for 3C 346 has yielded the cleanest final result. This powerful radio galaxy at a redshift of 0.161, lies in a poor cluster, which we have separated well from the dominant X-ray component of unresolved emission using a spatial analysis of archival ROSAT data. We were then able to fix the thermal component in our ASCA spectral analysis, and have found evidence that the unresolved emission varied by 32 +/- 13% over the 18 months between the ROSAT and ASCA observations. The unresolved X-ray emission does not suffer from intrinsic absorption, and we have related it to radio structures on both milliarcsecond scales and the arcsecond scales which Chandra can resolve. The source is a target of a Chandra AO2 proposal which we have recently submitted to follow up on our ASCA (and ROSAT) work. 3C 346's orientation to the line of sight is uncertain. However, the absence of X-ray absorption, and the radio/optical/X-ray colors, when combined with with previous radio evidence that the source is a foreshortened radio galaxy of the FRII class, suggest that the radio jets are seen at an angle to the line of sight of about 30 deg, intermediate between the radio-galaxy and quasar classes. The relatively hard ASCA response has allowed us to place an upper limit of 5.6 x 10(exp 43) ergs/ s on the 2-10 keV luminosity of any central X-ray component absorbed bN, gas which might be obscuring the broad-line emission region. Attached to this report is an almost final draft of a paper which we have prepared for submission to the Astrophysical Journal. Our combined ASCA and ROSAT results for NGC 6251 rule out our previously preferred flat-spectrum model and inverse-Compton interpretation for the source based on ROSAT data alone, but a softer X-ray spectrum and moderate absorption bring all the available data (including our early VLA HI measurements) into consistency, and we are reasonably confident that we understand the processes responsible for the X-ray emission. We have made some more sensitive HI absorption measurements which are currently being analyzed, and our plans are to publish our ASCA analysis in conjunction with the new HI results. The ASCA data for NGC 4261 have been difficult to interpret. A re-analysis of our ROSAT data with a wider range of physical parameters brings the ROSAT and ASCA results into reasonable agreement only if the emission from hot gas dominates more than suggested by our earlier work, which is itself unexpected since the radio core is bright and a large jet-related X-ray component would bring the source into agreement with results for others of its type. However, we have recently received our Chandra A01 data for this source, with the spatial resolution which allows us to separate thermal and non-thermal emission components. Our ASCA results will be re-interpreted once the analysis of our Chandra data is complete. The interpretation of the ASCA data for BL Lac object 3C 371 is ongoing, in conjunction with analysis of archival multifrequency data. Radio galaxies are complex in their X-ray properties, and hindsight has shown that the spatial resolution of ASCA is too poor for a reliable interpretation of the data without drawing on other observations. However, the ASCA spectra have made a useful contribution to the interpretation of these sources, and the groundwork is now there for more sensitive work using Chandra and XMM-Newton.

Worrall, Diana↗

No Compton Reflection In a Chandra/RXTE Observation of Mkn 509: Implications for the Fe-K Line Emission From Accreting X-Ray Sources

We report the results of simultaneous Chandra and RXTE observations of the Seyfert 1 galaxy Mkn 509. We deconvolve the broad and narrow Fe-K emission-line components for which we measure rest-frame equivalent widths of 119+/-18 eV and 57+/-13 eV respectively. The broad line has a FWHM of 57,600((sup 14,400)(sub -21,000)) km/s and the narrow line is unresolved, with an upper limit on the FWHM of 4,940 km/s. Both components must originate in cool matter since we measure rest-frame center energies of 6.36((sup +0.13)(sub -0.12)) keV and 6.42+/-0.01 keV for the broad and narrow line respectively. This rules out He-like and H-like Fe for the origin of both the broad and narrow lines. If, as is widely accepted, the broad Fe-K line originates in Thomson-thick matter (such as an accretion disk), then one expects to observe spectral curvature above approximately 10 keV, (commensurate with the observed broad line), characteristic of the Compton-reflection continuum. However our data sets very stringent limits on deviations of the observed continuum from a power law. Light travel-time delays cannot be invoked to explain anomalies in the relative strengths of the broad Ferry line and Compton-reflection continuum since they are supposed to originate in the same physical location. We are forced to conclude that both the broad and narrow Fe-K lines had to originate in Thomson-thin matter during our observation. This result, for a single observation of just one source, means that our understanding of Fe K line emission and Compton reflection from accreting X-ray sources in general needs to be re-examined. For example, if an irradiated accretion disk existed in Mkn 509 at the time of the observations, the lack of spectral curvature above approximately 10 keV suggests two possibilities. Either the disk was Thomson-thick and highly ionized, having negligible Fe-K line emission and photoelectric absorption or the disk was Thomson-thin producing some or all of the broad Fe-K line emission. In the former case, the broad Fe-K line had to have produced in a Thomson-thin region elsewhere. In both cases the predicted spectral curvature above approximately 10 keV is negligible. An additional implication of our results is that any putative obscuring torus in the system, required by unification models of active galaxies, must also be Thomson-thin. The same applies to the optical broad line region (BLR) if it has a substantial covering factor.

Yaqoob, Tahir↗

DESSY: Making a real-time expert system robust and useful

As the complexity and expected life-span of modern space systems continue to increase, the need for real-time data monitoring and failure analysis becomes more critical to their successful operation. The DEcision Support SYstem (DESSY) is a joint effort by the Intelligent Systems Branch/ER2 and the Remote Manipulator System (RMS) Section/DF44 to develop an expert system for the monitoring of the Payload Deployment and Retrieval System (PDRS). DESSY users, the RMS flight controllers, are provided with user interface enhancements and automated monitoring of system state (physical orientation) and status (operational health). Currently, a DESSY prototype for the Manipulator Positioning Mechanism (MPM) and Manipulator Retention Latches (MRL) of the PDRS has been developed and successfully demonstrated during the STS-49 and STS-46 missions. Expert systems for monitoring real-time operations must not only accurately represent domain knowledge, but also address the challenges of using unfiltered real-time data as input. This paper describes the methods and design strategies developed to overcome problems with real-time data in the NASA Mission Control Center. Types of data problems addressed are as follows: (1) loss of data; (2) erratic data; and (3) data lags and irregularities during state transition. Methods used to handle data problems include rule disabling for ignoring data when data quality is uncertain, context-sensitive bounded pattern recognition for minimizing incorrect conclusions based on bad data, and graceful recovery through system correction when reliable data returns. This combination of methods with an object-based modular DESSY design assures a robust program capable of lengthy periods of uninterrupted use in operations.

Land, Sherry A.↗

Back to the Future: Consistency-Based Trajectory Tracking

Given a model of a physical process and a sequence of commands and observations received over time, the task of an autonomous controller is to determine the likely states of the process and the actions required to move the process to a desired configuration. We introduce a representation and algorithms for incrementally generating approximate belief states for a restricted but relevant class of partially observable Markov decision processes with very large state spaces. The algorithm presented incrementally generates, rather than revises, an approximate belief state at any point by abstracting and summarizing segments of the likely trajectories of the process. This enables applications to efficiently maintain a partial belief state when it remains consistent with observations and revisit past assumptions about the process' evolution when the belief state is ruled out. The system presented has been implemented and results on examples from the domain of spacecraft control are presented.

Kurien, James↗

New Cryogenic Method for Combining Lunar Regolith Simulant and Frozen Volatiles to Generate Icy Lunar Simulated Regolith

There is a requirement within the lunar science and exploration communities to develop lunar simulants containing volatiles that are solids at the cryogenic temperatures found in the permanently shadowed regions (PSRs), such as those found near the Lunar South Pole. Icy regolith simulants would be used for curation training, as well as for various research activities. One of the most critical aspects of developing a regolith simulant that is more physically and chemically like icy lunar regolith is minimizing any form of modification driven by elevated temperatures. Here we document our ongoing efforts to combine materials at ultralow temperatures, designed to minimize any chemical reactions or other physical changes during the production of the icy regolith. Our goal is to document how one can create an essentially “unreacted” icy regolith that can serve as an effective “time zero” start point from which advanced curation research will proceed. This is done using commercial off-the-shelf equipment as much as possible, along with creating a custom spray plate that can be adapted to a wide variety of methods, all for the planetary simulant community. This method creates crystals of various volatiles such as water, methanol, along with CO 2 ice and these components are combined with lunar regolith that is at -196°C temperature to avoid chemical reactions, and/or phase changes thus creating a more chemically relevant icy lunar regolith. The rules of chemistry stay the same regardless of location whether it’s in the lab, or directly on the lunar surface, and therefore we aim for creating a more authentic icy lunar simulant in the laboratory by operating at ultralow temperatures. It is also envisioned that this method will lead to advanced materials testing in the future. In addition, this method is directly applicable to prior missions such as LCROSS.

Cryogenic Lunar Simulant and Icy Volatile Producti↗

New Cryogenic Method for Combining Lunar Regolith Simulant and Frozen Volatiles to Generate Icy Lunar Simulated Regolith

There is a requirement within the lunar science and exploration communities to develop lunar simulants containing volatiles that are solids at the cryogenic temperatures found in the permanently shadowed regions (PSRs), such as those found near the Lunar South Pole. Icy regolith simulants would be used for curation training, as well as for various research activities. One of the most critical aspects of developing a regolith simulant that is more physically and chemically like icy lunar regolith is minimizing any form of modification driven by elevated temperatures. Here we document our ongoing efforts to combine materials at ultralow temperatures, designed to minimize any chemical reactions or other physical changes during the production of the icy regolith. Our goal is to document how one can create an essentially “unreacted” icy regolith that can serve as an effective “time zero” start point from which advanced curation research will proceed. This is done using commercial off-the-shelf equipment as much as possible, along with creating a custom spray plate that can be adapted to a wide variety of methods, all for the planetary simulant community. This method creates crystals of various volatiles such as water, methanol, along with CO 2 ice and these components are combined with lunar regolith that is at -196°C temperature to avoid chemical reactions, and/or phase changes thus creating a more chemically relevant icy lunar regolith. The rules of chemistry stay the same regardless of location whether it’s in the lab, or directly on the lunar surface, and therefore we aim for creating a more authentic icy lunar simulant in the laboratory by operating at ultralow temperatures. It is also envisioned that this method will lead to advanced materials testing in the future. In addition, this method is directly applicable to prior missions such as LCROSS.

Cryogenic Lunar Simulant and Icy Volatile Producti↗

Preimpact characterization of Comet P/Shoemaker-Levy 9

At McDonald Observatory, we have undertaken a major program of observation of Comet P/Shoemaker-Levy 9 in order to charcterize the dynamics and physical make-up of the fragments prior to their disappearance in July 1994 when they collide with Jupiter. Obserations have included astrometry, photometry, and spectroscopy. Our astrometric observations have been important for deriving accurate orbits for the individual fragments. With the photometry, we have derived (B-V) and (V-R) colors for a number of fragemnts. We show that they are slightly redder than the Sun in (B-V) and similar to the Sun in (V-R); they may show differences in colors for the individual fragments. We detected no gas with our spectroscopic observations and have derived sensitive upper limits on the quantity of gas. Our observations are consistent with the parent being a comet, as classified, but cannot rule out certain types of asteroids as progenitors.

Cochran, Anita L.↗

NGC 3312: A victim of ram pressure sweeping

Researchers are undertaking a volume limited survey of the Hydra I cluster in neutral hydrogen using the National Radio Astronomy Observatory's Very Large Array (VLA). The main purpose is to study the effects of a dense environment on the gaseous component of the galaxies. Observational evidence has been accumulating recently that ram pressure sweeping does occur in the centers of clusters, but it is possible that tidal interactions play a role as well. Results of high resolution HI imaging of NGC 3312, the large peculiar spiral near the cluster center are presented. Hydra I (= A1060) is the nearest rich cluster beyond Virgo and, as such, presents a unique opportunity to do a complete survey of a cluster. It is similar to the Virgo cluster in many of its general physical characteristics, such as size, x ray luminosity, velocity dispersion, and galaxy content (high spiral fraction). However, Hydra I appears to be more regular and relaxed. This is evident in the x ray distribution in its central region, which is radially symmetric and centered on the dominant galaxy, NGC 3311, a cD-like elliptical. The observed x ray luminosity implies a central gas density of 4.5 x 10 to the 3rd power cm(-3). Gallagher (1978) argued from optical images of NGC 3312 that this galaxy might be an ideal candidate to directly study effects of the ram pressure process; it might currently be undergoing stripping of its interstellar medium. The researchers' data are consistent with this suggestion, but other origins of the peculiar appearance cannot yet be ruled out.

Mcmahon, P. M.↗

Creating Innovative Frameworks to Spur Cultural Change at NASA Armstrong Flight Research Center

Changing the culture of an organization is a monumental task that often takes years and has no set formula. Steps can be taken, however, to spur cultural change by creating spaces and infrastructure to serve as the initial driving force. An innovation space and a bicycle sharing (bike share) program were implemented at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Armstrong Flight Research Center (AFRC) (Edwards, California) with a vision toward connecting Center personnel, fostering collaboration and innovation, retaining newer employees, promoting flexibility, and improving the culture and workplace atmosphere. This paper discusses the steps taken, challenges faced, novel culture-change-focused design elements, lessons learned, acquired metrics, and how these initiated cultural change at AFRC. For both the innovation space and the bike share program, funding was negotiated and provided through the NASA Convergent Aeronautics Solutions (CAS) project, which was seeking to improve the innovation and collaboration capabilities at each of the four NASA aeronautics Centers. Key stakeholders across AFRC from upper management, facilities, safety, engineering, and procurement were identified early in the process and were consulted and included throughout execution to ensure that any encountered roadblocks could be easily navigated. Research was then conducted by attending conferences and visiting culture-changing organizations both inside and outside United States Government agencies. Distilling the research, identifying available space, and deciding on specific design elements for the space was conducted by a subset of individuals of diverse backgrounds to enable quick, effective decision-making. Decisions were made with the intent to increase usage and diversity of users of the space; care was taken to ensure a well-crafted atmosphere that would foster the desired culture change. The allocated physical space required major structural modifications, new furniture, and new capabilities that would bring people in. Decisions and desires underwent a rapid reiterative process in order to stay within budget and short deadlines, while holding firm to what was seen as fundamental elements of an innovation space. The framework for cultural change being established, the more difficult task began: incubating the desired culture. Intentional workday use of the innovation space was encouraged, and organized events coordinated in order to truly foster culture change. Such incubation supports the organic spread of culture change to all areas of AFRC. This framework was complemented and expanded by the implementation of the bike share program. Steps for implementation included bike selection based on lessons learned, creating bike stations and signage, implementing bike share rules, and building a volunteer maintenance infrastructure. A novel user-reporting feedback system at each bike station is a low-impact method of capturing usage metrics. Due to the nature of the work conducted at AFRC, the bike share program and feedback system were negotiated and vetted through various organizations including legal, safety, and operations. The innovation space and the bike share program together are an effective initial framework for innovation and collaboration. Culture change takes time, but the innovation space and the bike share program are already showing signs of making a positive impact on the AFRC workforce.

rooms↗

Spitzer Microlensing Parallax for OGLE-2016-BLG-1067: A Sub-Jupiter Orbiting an M Dwarf in the Disk

We report the discovery of a sub-Jupiter-mass planet orbiting beyond the snow line of an M dwarf most likely in the Galactic disk as part of the joint Spitzer and ground-based monitoring of planetary microlensing anomalies toward the Galactic bulge. Most of the microlensing parameters are strongly constrained by the light-curve modeling, and in particular there is a Spitzer-based measurement of the microlens parallax, π(E). However, there are no caustic crossings, so the angular Einstein radius has only an upper limit based on the light-curve modeling alone. Additionally, the analysis leads us to identify eight degenerate configurations: the fourfold microlensing parallax degeneracy being doubled by a degeneracy in the caustic structure present at the level of the ground-based solutions. To calculate the physical parameters, and at the same time to break the parallax degeneracy, we make use of a series of arguments: the χ(exp 2) hierarchy, the Rich argument (stating that the small-parallax solution is more likely), and a prior Galactic model. The preferred configuration, favored by a likelihood ratio of at least 4000, is for a host at D(L)={3.73}(-0.67+0.66)kpc with mass M(L)=0.30(-0.12+0.15) M(☉) , orbited by a Saturn-like planet with M(planet) =0.43(-0.17+0.21) M(Jup) at projected separation a(⊥) =1.70(-0.39+0.38) au, about 2.1 times beyond the system snow line. Therefore, it adds to the growing population of sub-Jupiter planets orbiting beyond the snow line of M dwarfs discovered by microlensing. Based on the rules of the real-time protocol for the selection of events to be followed up with Spitzer, this planet will not enter the sample for measuring the Galactic distribution of planets.

S. Calchi Novati↗

Tethered Space Satellite-1 (TSS-1): Wound About a Bolt

In the early 1990's US and Italian scientists collaborated to study the electrodynamics on a long tether between two satellites as it moved through the electrically charged portion of Earth's atmosphere called the ionosphere. Potential uses for the electrical current induced in the long wire include power and thrust generation for a satellite, momentum exchange, artificial gravity, deployment of sensors or antennas, and gravity-gradient stabilization. The Tethered Space Satellite (TSS) was a first-of-its-kind experiment with long tethers in space. It consisted of a satellite with science experiments attached to a 12.5 mile long, very thin (0.10 inch diameter) copper wire assembly wound around a spool in the deployer reel mechanism. The whole mechanism sits on a pallet that is installed into the Shuttle bay. At an altitude of 160 nautical miles above earth, the satellite would be deplodeployed from the Shuttle bay by raising it on a boom facing away from Earth. Once cleared of the bay, the deployer mechanism would slowly feed out the 12-plus miles of tether. Scientific data would be collected throughout the operation, after which the satellite would be reeled back in. A receiver spool to catch the 12.5 mile tether as it was being unwound by the deployer reel mechanism was set up to do the system-level test of deployer real mechanism prior to installing the loaded pallet into the Shuttle bay. The system level tests were required before the pallet could be installed into the Space Shuttle cargo bay. A few months before flight, the system level tests, including unreeling and reeling the tether, were completed at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and the TSS payload was installed onto the Spacelab pallet. Some of this testing equipment was then shipped back to the contractor, Martin Marietta. Integration with the Shuttle began. Systems-level load analyses, which cannot be run until all information about each payload is finalized, was run in parallel with the physical integration of the hardware into the Shuttle payload bay. An analysis, called Coupled loads analysis, incorporates any updates to the model due to system level tests of all the different payloads, and any changes that were found during integration. Engineering analysis examines the worst case scenarios for the loads the hardware will see. The two times during the mission where the dynamic loads are the worst were 1) the first 10-second portion of Shuttle lift off, and 2) a 2-second time during landing when the landing gears hit the ground. The coupled loads analysis using the final verification loads showed that a single bolt attaching the deployer reel mechanism to the support structure had a "negative margin" - which is an indication that it might fail - during touch down. Hardware certification rules do not allow for hardware to fly with negative margins. A structural failure of one payload could have serious or catastrophic consequences to other payloads, or may significantly damage the Orbiter. The issue had to be resolved before the flight.

O'Connor, Brian↗

Monitoring and Modeling Astronaut Occupational Radiation Exposures in Space: Recent Advances

In 1982 astronauts were declared to be radiation workers by OSHA, and as such were subject to the rules and regulations applied to that group. NASA was already aware that space radiation was a hazard to crewmembers and had been studying and monitoring astronaut doses since 1962 at the Johnson Space Center. It was quickly realized NASA would not be able to accomplish all of its goals if the astronauts were subject to the ground based radiation worker limits, and thus received a waiver from OSHA to establish independent limits. As part of the stipulation attached to setting new limits, OSHA included a requirement to perform preflight dose projections for each crew and inform them of the associated risks. Additional requirements included measuring doses from various sources during the flight, making every effort to prevent a crewmember from exceeding the new limits, and keeping all exposures As Low As Reasonably Achievable (a.k.a. ALARA - a common health physics principle). The assembly of the International Space Station (ISS) and its initial manned operations will coincide with the 4-5 year period of high space weather activity at the next maximum in the solar cycle. For the first time in NASA's manned program, US astronauts will be in orbit continuously throughout a solar maximum period. During this period, crews are at risk of significantly increased radiation exposures due to solar particle events and trapped electron belt enhancements following geomagnetic storms. The problem of protecting crews is compounded by the difficulty of providing continuous real-time monitoring over a period of a decade in an era of tightly constrained budgets. In order to prepare for ISS radiological support needs, the NASA Space Radiation Analysis Group and the NOAA Space Environment Center have undertaken a multiyear effort to improve and automate ground-based space weather monitoring systems and real-time radiation analysis tools. These improvements include a coupled, automated space weather monitoring and alarm system--SPE exposure analysis system, an advanced space weather data distribution and display system, and a high-fidelity space weather simulation system. In addition, significant new real-time space weather data sets, which will enhance the forecasting and now-casting of near-Earth space environment conditions, are being made available through unique NASA-NOAA-USAF collaborations. These new data sets include coronal mass ejection monitoring by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) and in-situ plasma and particle monitoring at the L1 libration point by the Solar Wind Monitor (SWIM) and Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft. Advanced real-time radiation monitoring data from charged particle telescopes and tissue equivalent proportional counters will also be available to assist crew and flight controllers in monitoring the external and intravehicular radiation environment.

Weyland, Mark↗

Estimation of Snow Mass Information via Assimilation of C-Band Synthetic Aperture Radar Backscatter Observations Into an Advanced and Surface Model

This study assimilated Sentinel-1 C-band backscatter observations over snow-covered terrain into the Noah-Multiparameterization land surface model using support vector machine (SVM) regression and an ensemble Kalman filter to improve the modeled terrestrial snow mass estimates. The data assimilation (DA) experiment was conducted across Western Colorado from September 2016 to August 2017. As part of the DA experiments, the impact of a rule-based update was evaluated by comparing snow water equivalent (SWE) estimates via DA (with [ DAv1 ] and without [ DAv2 ] the rule-based update) against SNOTEL SWE measurements. Results confirmed that rule-based update helped minimize SVM controllability issues, and in turn, improved the accuracy of SWE estimates relative to both open loop (OL) and DAv2 . Comparison of SWE estimates from Sentinel-1 DAv1 against SNOTEL SWE revealed that 75% of stations showed improvements in bias and correlation coefficient relative to the OL. Assimilated SWE estimates also showed statistical improvements during both the snow accumulation and snow ablation periods. However, unbiased root mean square error showed a slight increase during the snow ablation period due to the large variability in the electromagnetic response of C-band backscatter over deep and/or wet snow. Improvement of the SWE estimates also resulted in improving river discharge estimates compared to in situ measurements. River discharge using Sentinel-1 DAv1 improved the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency at all available stations. These results suggest that physically constrained SVM can serve as an efficient observation operator for snow mass DA through explicit consideration of the first-order C-band scattering mechanisms over different terrestrial snow conditions.

Jongmin Park↗

Fatigue, Creep-Fatigue, and Thermomechanical Fatigue Life Testing of Alloys

The fatigue crack initiation resistance of an alloy is determined by conducting a series of tests over a range of values of stress amplitude or strain range. The observed number of cycles to failure is plotted against the stress amplitude or strain range to obtain a fatigue curve. The fatigue properties quoted for an alloy are typically the constants used in the equation(s) that describe the fatigue curve. Fatigue lives of interest may be as low as 10(exp 2) or higher than 10(exp 9) cycles. Because of the enormous scatter associated with fatigue, dozens of tests may be needed to confidently establish a fatigue curve, and the cost may run into several thousands of dollars. To further establish the effects on fatigue life of the test temperature, environment, alloy condition, mean stress effects, creep-fatigue effects, thermomechanical cycling, etc. requires an extraordinarily large and usually very costly test matrix. The total effort required to establish the fatigue resistance of an alloy should not be taken lightly. Fatigue crack initiation tests are conducted on relatively small and presumed to be initially crack-free, samples of an alloy that are intended to be representative of the alloy's metallurgical and physical condition. Generally, samples are smooth and have uniformly polished surfaces within the test section. Some may have intentionally machined notches of well-controlled geometry, but the surface at the root of the notch is usually not polished. The purpose of polishing is to attain a reproducible surface finish. This is to eliminate surface finish as an uncontrolled variable. Representative test specimen geometries will be discussed later. Test specimens are cyclically loaded until macroscopically observable cracks initiate and eventually grow to failure. Normally, the fatigue failure life of a specimen is defined as the number of cycles to separation of the specimen into two pieces. Alternative definitions are becoming more common, particularly for low-cycle fatigue testing, wherein some prescribed indication of impending failure due to cracking is adopted. Specific criteria will be described later. As a rule, cracks that develop during testing are not measured nor are the test parameters intentionally altered owing to the presence of cracking.

Halford, Gary R.↗

Better Spectrometers, Beautiful Spectra and Confusion for All

The confluence of enormous improvements in submillimeter receivers and the development of powerful large scale observatories is about to force astrophysics and the sciences that support it to develop novel approaches for interpretation of data. The historical method of observing one or two lines and carefully analyzing them in the context of a simple model is now only applicable for distant objects where only a few lines are strong enough to be observable. Modern observatories collect many GHz of high signal-to-noise spectra in a single observation and in many cases, at sufficiently high spatial resolution to start resolving chemically distinct regions. The observatories planned for the near future and the inevitable upgrades of existing facilities will make large spectral data sets the rule rather than the exception in many areas of molecular astrophysics. The methodology and organization required to fully extract the available information and interpret these beautiful spectra represents a challenge to submillimeter astrophysics similar in magnitude to the last few decades of effort in improving receivers. The quality and abundance of spectra effectively prevents line-by-line analysis from being a time efficient proposition, however, global analysis of complex spectra is a science in its infancy. Spectroscopy at several other wavelengths have developed a number of techniques to analyze complex spectra, which can provide a great deal of guidance to the molecular astrophysics community on how to attack the complex spectrum problem. Ultimately, the challenge is one of organization, similar to building observatories, requiring teams of specialists combining their knowledge of dynamical, structural, chemical and radiative models with detailed knowledge in molecular physics and gas and grain surface chemistry to extract and exploit the enormous information content of complex spectra. This paper presents a spectroscopists view of the necessary elements in a tool for complex spectral analysis.

Spectral Analysis↗

Science Fairs and Observational Science: A Case History from Earth Orbit

Having judged dozens of science fairs over the years, I am repeatedly disturbed by the ground rules under which students must prepare their entries. They are almost invariably required to follow the "scientific method," involving formulating a hypothesis, a test of the hypothesis, and then a project in which this test is carried out. As a research scientist for over 40 years, I consider this approach to science fairs fundamentally unsound. It is not only too restrictive, but actually avoids the most important (and difficult) part of scientific research: recognizing a scientific problem in the first place. A well-known example is one of the problems that, by his own account, stimulated Einstein's theory of special relativity: the obvious fact that when an electric current is induced in a conductor by a magnetic field , it makes no difference whether the field or the conductor is actually (so to speak) moving. There is in other words no such thing as absolute motion. Physics was transformed by Einstein's recognition of a problem. Most competent scientists can solve problems after they have been recognized and a hypothesis properly formulated, but the ability to find problems in the first Place is much rarer. Getting down to specifics, the "scientific method" under which almost all students must operate is actually the experimental method, involving controlled variables, one of which, ideally, is changed at a time. However, there is another type of science that can be called observational science. As it happens, almost all the space research I have carried out since 1959 has been this type, not experimental science.

Lowman, Paul D., Jr.↗